John Davis Consulting

Inflation and Immigration May Doom Kamala Harris in 2024 Like Covid-19 Doomed Donald Trump in 2020

October 18, 2024       Vol. XVII, No. 9      9:13 am

Most Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago

This morning, October 18, 2024, Gallup released a new study showing that more than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago; 39% said they are better off. Gallup noted that today’s low (39%) “better off” numbers are very close to the 1992 survey results, when only 38% of Americans said they were better off than the previous four years. That was the year President George H.W. Bush lost his race for a second term.

Today’s report is an update to Gallup’s report on the 2024 General Election political environment published September 24, 2024. That report concludes that nearly all measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcome are trending Republican this fall.

Here are the highlights:

Party Identification: More Americans are identifying as Republican this year (48%) than Democratic (45%). Those percentages are based on the 3rd Quarter average of Gallup polls conducted in July, August and September.

In 2020, Gallup reported that Democrats had a 47% to 42% advantage over the GOP on the party ID question. Having a 5-point advantage four years ago as the preferred party contributed greatly to the Democrat’s success in winning the White House, holding the U.S. House, and taking back a working majority in the U.S. Senate with the Vice President breaking tie votes.

Party Better Able to Handle Today’s Problems: The Gallup study shows that 46% of Americans say Republicans are better able to handle the most important problems facing the country today, compared to 41% who say Democrats would be better.

Most Important Problems: Per Gallup, the most important problems facing the nation are the economy, immigration, the government, and inflation. Republicans are favored over Democrats for handling all four top problems.

U.S Satisfaction: Only 22% of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. In 2020, only 28% of Americans were satisfied with the way things were going in the United States, driven primarily by concerns over the COVID-19 epidemic.

Covid-19 Doomed Trump in 2020; Inflation May Doom Harris

Covid-19 Doomed Trump in 2020: In 2020, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average showed  President Trump with a relatively high job approval on the economy (51% Approve; 47% Disapprove). However,  the economy was not the number one problem facing the nation, the coronavirus was. Trump’s job approval on handling the coronavirus crisis was only 42%, with 57% disapproving.

But for the Covid-19 epidemic, Trump most likely would have won reelection in 2020.

Economy and Immigration May Doom Harris in 2024: Likewise, but for the economy and immigration, Kamala Harris would likely be on track for winning the presidency in 2024. Unfortunately for Harris, the economy is the number one problem facing the nation, and most voters believe that the high cost of living is driven by inflation, which, per Forbes, “has been far worse during the Biden administration, up 19% over the first 42 months of Biden’s term compared to 6% during Trump’s first 42 months, according to the government’s consumer price index.”

Inflation under the Biden-Harris Administration has hit Americans where is hurts the most, at the kitchen table. Food. Gas. Housing. Medical care. Biden’s job approval on inflation is only 37%, with 62.5% disapproving, per RCP.

Key Conclusion: Inflation is as politically devastating for Democratic presidential aspirations in 2024 as Covid-19 was for Republicans in 2020.

Negative Economic Confidence Index Suggests White House Turnover

Economic Confidence Index: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is a -28%. It is  based on the results of two poll questions probing the perception of Americans regarding current economic conditions and whether they think the economy is getting better or getting worse.

Economic Conditions: Only 22% of Americans think current economic conditions are either “excellent” or “good,” versus 48% who say economic conditions in the country are “poor;”

Economy Better/Worse: Only 32% of Americans think the economy is “getting better” while 62% say the economy is “getting worse.”

The low U.S. Satisfaction with the direction of the country (22%), and the -28% Economic Confidence Index are putting Kamala Harris’s run for the White House in serious jeopardy.

Key fact: Per Gallup, in every presidential election year since 1992, when the Economic Confidence Index was a negative number (1992, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020), the party in the White House lost the presidential race, with one exception, in 2012 when Obama won reelection despite a -1 on the Economic Confidence Index. It’s a -28 today.

Like it or not, in politics, if you are in the White House, you are blamed for the bad things that happen on your watch, like inflation and the immigration crisis, whether or not you had anything to do with the problem. Thus, the Democratic Party’s dilemma in 2024.

Americans Prefer the GOP to Keep Country Prosperous and Safe

Keep America Prosperous: Per Gallup, 50% of Americans say that the Republican Party is better able to keep America prosperous compared to 44% who say the Democratic Party. With the economy as the number one problem facing the nation, the perception that Republicans are more capable of keeping the country prosperous will likely be highly consequential politically on November 5.

Keep America Safe: Similarly, 54% of Americans say that the Republican Party is better able to keep America safe from international threats, while 40% say the same for the Democratic Party. Again, a highly consequential advantage for Republicans in light of the fact that immigration is second only to the economy on Gallup’s most important problems list.

Threats to safety associated with the immigration crisis include violent immigrant gangs, high-profile stories of rape and murder by illegal immigrants, and overdose deaths, now over 100,000 a year per the CDC’s National Center for Health Studies.

Biden’s job approval on immigration is a dismal 35%, with 62.6% disapproving, per RCP. As hard as Kamala Harris has tried to disassociate herself from the problems of the Biden-Harris Administration, the association with President Biden as his vice president during the past four years is undeniable.

With the Biden Administration’s lousy job approval numbers on inflation and immigration, this was not the time for Harris to tell The View hosts on October 8, when asked if she would have done anything differently if she had been president, that “not a thing comes to mind.”

Unfortunately for many pro-government candidates, government is not only seen as ineffective in solving today’s biggest problems, but government is seen as having contributed to those problems. Which explains why 55% of Americans think that government should do less, per Gallup, while 41% think government should do more.

Much Like 1992: This fall is much like 1992, when President Bush lost his race for a second term because only 38% of Americans said they were better off than the previous four years. The fact that today only 39% of Americans say they are better off than four years ago does not bode well for Harris.

Of course, there is always a possibility that Donald Trump will self-destruct. And, outsourcing his voter turnout ground game to independent groups like Elon Musk’s America PAC may prove to be a bad  decision. But if the presidential election were held today, the Trump-Vance ticket would win.

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John N. Davis

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