John Davis Consulting

Top Ten VP Kamala Harris Will Win, If, and Top Ten Former President Donald Trump Will Win, If

October 31, 2024       Vol. XVII, No. 10       1:13 pm

Today’s North Carolina Early Voting Summary

Per today’s Early Voting Analysis Day 14 by Mike Rusher, President, The Results Company:

As of the close of early voting sites last night, over 3.6 million North Carolinians have voted, with Democrats voting in fewer numbers, surprisingly, than their 2022 and 2020 early voting turnout totals. “Democrats are now behind their 2020 pace by 320k votes,” notes Rusher. Equally surprising, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters are banking more votes than in 2022 and 2020.

• Democrats make up 32.9% of early voters: 5.8% below 2022; 5.9% below 2020
• Republicans make up 34.2% of early voters: 2.7% over 2022; 2.8% over 2020
• Unaffiliateds made up 32.9% of ealy voters: 3.1% over 2022; 3.1% over 2020

Top ten Kamala Harris will win, if …

Top ten arguments that Harris will win IF…

• IF most voters in “Blue Wall States” (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) decide that their best interests are with a union-friendly, big government, liberal Democratic presidential administration over a conservative who wants to dismantle the DC establishment.
• IF most voters in battleground states decide that although they agree with Trump on many key issues, they are no longer willing to vote for an administration led by someone they see, as Harris claims, “increasingly unhinged” and a threat to the American democracy.
• IF otherwise Republican-leaning voters in swing states decide that giving Trump the opportunity to add a fourth and maybe even a fifth justice on the already 6-to-3 conservative U.S. Supreme Court is not in the best interest of an ideologically diverse nation.
• IF the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has caused a silent majority of otherwise Republican-leaning women to vote against Trump because they are adamantly opposed to anyone other than their doctor advising them regarding a pregnancy.
• IF most voters living paycheck to paycheck believe that Harris is more likely than Trump to understand their struggles with making ends meet; that her “opportunity economy” plan, along with “ending price gouging” and “taxing big corporations and billionaires,” will lower their cost of living and increase their income to a more livable wage.
• IF the Harris campaign has a well-organized and well-funded turnout operation reminiscent of Barack Obama’s historic turnout machine in 2008, an operation that breaks turnout records of Democratic constituencies like women, Blacks, Hispanics and young voters.
• IF most voters in battleground states believe that Trump’s “America First” agenda and bullying style of leadership would create global instability by disrupting diplomatic relations with foreign adversaries and allied countries around the world.
• IF Harris keeps Democrats together and inspires them to vote despite evidence that Black and Hispanic men are backing Trump in record numbers, that young voters are disengaged, and despite trends showing the GOP with more new registrations and higher early voting turnout in key swing states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
• IF most voters in battleground states are no longer willing to accept a foul-mouthed, narcissistic president who habitually makes insulting and unverified claims like saying that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Illinois, are “eating the dogs … eating the cats.”
• IF Harris’s closing argument, emphasizing reproductive rights and the need for “a new generation of leadership” that will “turn the page on the drama and the conflict, fear and division” of the Trump era, is a winning message for a majority of voters in swing states.

Top ten Donald Trump will win, if …

Top ten arguments that Trump will win IF…

• IF most voters in battleground states make their presidential decision based on the question, Are you better off today than you were four years ago; and based on the sense that the country is on the wrong track (9% “Right Direction;” 64.3% “Wrong Track”).
• IF most voters make their presidential decision based on who best to manage the economy (per Reuters, Trump 47%; Harris 37%), and immigration (Trump 48%; Harris 33%)
• IF the enthusiasm of MAGA voters, which is not wavered since the day Trump announced Tuesday, November 15, 2022, and the new GOP turnout emphasis on low-propensity voters, leads to record turnout for Republican candidates in battleground states.
• IF a historic number of African American men vote for Trump (in the range of 20%) See Charlotte Observer for NC trends, as well as Hispanic men (Reuters/Ipsos poll last Friday showed that Harris leads Trump among Hispanic men by only 2% (44% to 42%). During the 2020 race, Joe Biden led Trump by 19% among Hispanic men at this point in the campaign.
• IF the Harris campaign emphasis on characterizing Trump as an unhinged, racist fascist fails to motivate young voters to vote for her because what they really want to know is what she plans to do to help them get beyond living from one personal financial crisis to another.
• IF Harris loses Pennsylvania because she picked MN Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate rather than popular Gov. Josh Shapiro in battleground state Pennsylvania.
• IF Conservatives, like evangelical church goers, turn out in record numbers against liberal Democratic views like the “Woke” agenda in public schools, lax law enforcement initiatives like no bail and “Defund the police,” and trans women in girls’ sports.
• IF most voters in battleground states believe that the federal bureaucracy has become a major part of the intractable problems facing the country and needs a radical overhaul.
• IF Harris fails to separate herself from President Biden’s gaffes, like “The only garbage I see floating out there is his [Trump’s] supporters;” or his low job approval ratings on the economy (8% approve), with inflation up 19% since 2021, and his low approval on immigration (34.8% approve), with 11 million unauthorized migrants on his watch.

Conclusion: At the top of this report are the early voting turnout numbers showing that Democrats, who always win the early voting turnout battle, are lagging behind where they were in 2022 and 2020. Most consequential, per Mike Rusher’s Early Voting Analysis Day 14, “The Black vote overall in 2024 is 2.4% less than it was in 2020.”

Yesterday, Politico published a story titled, Black turnout is lagging in North Carolina, a warning sign for Harris. The article notes that “about 36,000” fewer Black voters have voted compared to 2020.

Winning is all about turning out your vote. Democrats cannot continue to give up their traditional advantage in banking early votes and expect to win. They have three days to catch up to their previous leads, until 3 pm on Saturday, when Early Voting sites close.

If Democrats do not win the Early Voting turnout battle, next Tuesday is going to be a long night.

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John N. Davis

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