Gov. McCrory Pulls Ahead After Post Hurricane Job Approval Shifts to Net Positive for First Time Since July 2013 “State response has been top-notch.” Wilmington Star-News New poll results released Monday morning, October 24, 2016, by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, show GOP Governor Pat McCrory’s “Job Approval” now
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Gov. McCrory Pulls Ahead After Post Hurricane Job Approval Shifts to Net Positive for First Time Since July 2013
“State response has been top-notch.” Wilmington Star-News
New poll results released Monday morning, October 24, 2016, by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, show GOP Governor Pat McCrory’s “Job Approval” now more positive (45%) than negative (43%) for the first time since July 2013. “We’d found Pat McCrory with a negative approval rating every single month since July 2013 until now,” said Tom Jensen, Director, Public Policy Polling.
Jensen attributed McCrory’s turnabout in favorable job approval to his handling of Hurricane Matthew. “There’s little that’s better for a Governor’s approval ratings than a Hurricane that voters perceive them to have handled well,” said Jensen.
No sooner than the ink was dry on the two paragraphs above, when another poll was released Monday morning, October 24, 2016, this one from Monmouth, showing Governor McCrory ahead of his Democratic rival, Attorney General Roy Cooper, by 48% to 47%.
Even though the PPP survey shows McCrory two points behind Cooper, the results add to mounting evidence that North Carolina’s embattled governor is enjoying the makings of a “Carolina Comeback.” Being behind two points is a far cry from where McCrory was in August, 2016, when all four statewide polls had Cooper ahead by an average of 6 points.
Cooper’s August 2016, 6-point polling advantage declined by only 1 point in September and early October, when 11 statewide polls showed McCrory continuing to run behind by an average of 5 points (See Real Clear Politics for all 2016 polls).
The came Hurricane Matthew.
There have been six statewide polls since the storm hit, with four showing Cooper ahead by an average of only 1.5 points, including the October 24, PPP survey, and two showing McCrory ahead by an average of 1.5 points, including the October 24, Monmouth survey.
As Tom Jensen noted in the PPP analysis, “This race looks more competitive now than it did a month ago when McCrory’s greatest public visibility was coming due to HB2 rather than the natural disaster.”
An example of the favorable commentary regarding McCrory’s handling of Hurricane Matthew seen around the state is the October 21, 2016 Wilmington Star-News Editorial titled, McCrory at best in hurricane response. It includes many accolades like, “Gov. Pat McCrory, his staff, agencies and thousands of state workers deserve credit for a job well done.”
Other accolades in the editorial include, “the state response has been top-notch,” and, “We were impressed that Gov. McCrory and his staff put emergency procedures into motion as soon as forecasters determined we likely were in harm’s way.”
The Wilmington Star-News editorial concluded this way:
“For our money, we like the McCrory we’ve seen at work the past few weeks, leading from the front and working with people of all stripes to help solve problems.
That is the McCrory, we believe, many people voted for.”
With two weeks to go before the final votes are tallied, Governor Pat McCrory’s prospects for a second term are improving with each and every poll.
– END –
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John N. Davis
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Two New Polls Show NC Gov. McCrory Within 1 Point of Atty. General Cooper Leading Up to Final Debate Tonight on WRAL Economic Impact of HB2 Only 0.1% of State GDP Be sure to tune in for the final gubernatorial debate tonight on WRAL at 7 pm. The debate will include, for the
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Two New Polls Show NC Gov. McCrory Within 1 Point of Atty. General Cooper Leading Up to Final Debate Tonight on WRAL
Economic Impact of HB2 Only 0.1% of State GDP
Be sure to tune in for the final gubernatorial debate tonight on WRAL at 7 pm. The debate will include, for the first time, Libertarian Lon Cecil, who will join Republican Governor Pat McCrory and his Democratic challenger Attorney General Roy Cooper.
WRAL posted a thoughtful list of seven contentions issues, like the coal ash spill and HB2, about which we can expect a political fireworks display. WRAL also posted valuable information on September 21, 2016 on the economic impact of HB2 in a post titled, Cancellation over HB2 make headlines but barely dent NC economy.
WRAL reported that although the financial losses of the legislation totaled $505 million, that was only 0.1% of the state’s $510 billion GDP. Perhaps the minimal economic impact of the controversial LGBT-friendly legislation explains why two new statewide polls of likely voters show a positive trend in Governor Pat McCrory’s race for a second term.
According to a new CNN/ORC poll of likely voters in North Carolina, conducted October 10-15, 2016, North Carolina’s embattled Republican governor has clawed his way back to within one point of his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Roy Cooper, after trailing in almost all statewide voter opinion surveys throughout the election year.
Among likely voters, Cooper leads McCrory by 49% to 48%. That is a major shift in McCrory’s favor since the August CNN/ORC poll, in which McCrory trailed Cooper by six points (Cooper 52%; McCrory 46%).
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted October 10-12, 2016 also found Gov. Pat McCrory with 48% of likely voters, while challenger Roy Cooper received 49%.
The source of Governor McCrory’s favorable shift among voters can be seen by comparing the CNN/ORC poll results for October to the August survey. Included among the groups who now see McCrory in a more favorable light are Independent voters. Independent voters, who now favor McCrory by 51% to 44%, favored Cooper in the August survey by 50% to 48%.
Expect tonight’s debate to be combative, as both major party candidates are likely prepared for a momentum changing zinger or two.
– END –
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John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check John Davis’ availability.
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Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Voters Plan to Throw at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders October 17, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 11 3:13 pm Why Michael Moore Told Meet the Press that Trump Will Win Sunday morning, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in
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Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Voters Plan to Throw at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders
October 17, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 11 3:13 pm
Why Michael Moore Told Meet the Press that Trump Will Win
Sunday morning, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in Orange County, I remembered that Michael Moore, the documentary film maker from Flint, Michigan, told Chuck Todd on Meet the Press, Sunday, October 2, 2016, that Donald Trump was a “human Molotov Cocktail” that on Election Day angry voters were going to “throw into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
Michael Moore, second only to Hillary Clinton as the Democrat Republicans despise the most, thinks Donald Trump will win the presidency for the same reason the British middle class voted to leave the European Union in the June 23, 2016 Brexit decision. Here is Moore’s pitch:
“From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”
Those are the voters that Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
The person who threw the Molotov Cocktail through the window at the GOP headquarters in Hillsborough over the weekend and painted “Nazi Republicans leave town or else,” was so angry at Republicans that he or she was willing to risk getting caught and going to jail.
That’s analogous to just how angry the Donald Trump voters are.
Read Michael Moore’s 5 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN. Admonishing Democrats for assuming that they have insurmountable advantages with demographic trends and the Electoral College map, Moore says, “If you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut.”
Why the Access Hollywood Tapes are Not Destroying Trump
Donald Trump is in bigger trouble than ever with voters because of evidence proving a history of predatory sexual behavior. From the Access Hollywood tape of lewd comments to interviews with numerous victims, most everyone believes it’s true.
As if his behavior is not bad enough, now Trump is digging himself into an even deeper hole by refusing to accept responsibility for his behavior and by claiming that his accusers are lying.
Most everyone believes it’s Trump who is lying.
So why, in light of Donald Trump’s lying about his lifelong history of sexually predatory behavior and lewd comments that objectify women, why does the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, released Sunday, October 16, 2016, show Clinton with a national lead among likely voters within the margin of error: Clinton 47%; Trump 43%; Johnson 5%; Stein 2%?
Why does the new CNN/ORC North Carolina poll, released at noon today, show Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by only 1 point (Clinton 48%; Trump 47%) despite the Access Hollywood scandal.
Clinton leads Trump in every category in today’s CNN/ORC poll except two: economy and honesty/trustworthy. What is most important to Trump voters? The economy and a leader who can be trusted to take on a rigged federal establishment.
Here in North Carolina, all four polls conducted since the Access Hollywood tape of Trump’s lewd comments show the same margin-of-error lead for Clinton:
- NBC News/WSJ Poll 9/10-12: Clinton 45%; Trump 41%; Johnson 9%
- Suffolk Univ Poll 10/10-12: Clinton 45%; Trump 43%; Johnson 5%
- Emerson College Poll 10/10-12: Clinton 46%; Trump 42%; Johnson 5%
- CNN/ORC 10/10-15: Clinton 48%; Trump 47%; Johnson 4%
Donald Trump is still in the running nationally and here in North Carolina because his voters see a federal government rigged by insiders in Washington, DC for the advantage of the privileged few, and the ideological left, as a bigger problem than sexually predatory behavior and lewd comments that objectify women.
In the Suffolk University poll conducted October 10-12 in North Carolina, only 13.6% of likely voters said the Access Hollywood tape changed their opinion in the presidential race.
Rich and Powerful Enough to Stand Up to the Rich and Powerful
Donald Trump voters see him as the only candidate in the race who is rich and powerful enough to stand up to the rich and powerful insiders who have ignored the fears and concerns of a middle-class electorate struggling to make ends meet, all the while growing the federal largess with borrowed money to a historic national debt of $19.7 trillion.
There are 3,144 counties in the United States. Think about where the top 10 richest counties would be in light of the wealth amassed around our great cities from Miami to Philadelphia, New York and Boston; Cleveland and Chicago; Seattle, San Francisco, LA; Phoenix, Denver, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte, and RTP.
The astounding fact is that 5 of the top 10 wealthiest counties in the United States out of a total of 3,144 are located in the Washington, DC area. Four of the 5 wealthiest counties are in Northern Virginia (Loudoun, Falls Church, Fairfax, Arlington), plus Howard County, MD.
Thanks to WikiLeaks and documents exposed through the Freedom of Information Act, everyone knows that Hillary Clinton is a principal partner in the architectural firm that has rigged the federal government for decades. Everyone knows that Hillary Clinton is a consummate insider who has exploited her revered national stature for private financial gain.
In 2013 alone, Hillary Clinton received $9,680,000 for speaking fees. According to an itemization of speeches on her 2013 IRS tax return, she received $225,000 for 34 of 41 speeches. The speeches were to Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.
On Saturday, October 15, 2016, WikiLeaks released transcripts of Hillary Clinton’s three speeches to Goldman Sachs for which she was paid $675,000.
Bernie Sanders questioned Hillary Clinton’s ability to lead as president because of her financial ties to Wall Street. Time and again he asked her to reveal the content of her speeches to prove that she had not sold her soul to those paying her a quarter of a million dollars for a talk.
Now, thanks to WikiLeaks, everyone knows she has been lying, too:
- Everyone knows that Clinton says one thing publicly about issues like fracking, open trade and open borders, and another thing privately.
- “You need both a public and private position,” she said … privately.
For Trump supporters, the biggest problem facing the nation is a federal government rigged by the insiders for the insiders … not sexually predatory behavior.
Hillary Clinton is Her Own Worst Enemy
Here are excerpts from Michael Moore’s 5 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN that make the case that Hillary Clinton is her own worst enemy:
- “Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary.”
- “She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected.”
- “Young women are among her biggest detractors.”
- “Not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her.”
- No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there.”
That’s the bottom line: the enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton just isn’t there. It’s because everyone knows that she is the consummate insider who rigged the system for personal financial gain and for the benefit of her insider friends around the nation … all the while neglecting “what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”
When thinking about the firebombing in Hillsborough, consider just how stupid it was for someone to risk many years in jail just to make a political statement. Well, electing Donald Trump president may be stupid and risky, but that’s the degree of anger the voters have that Michael Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
– End –
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Democrat Roy Cooper’s Gubernatorial Campaign Under Siege by African Americans and Cops Who Feel Betrayed Over Shootings Cooper was Already on Thin Ice with Black Voters If African American turnout in Mecklenburg Country is down substantially this fall due to anger with Democratic leaders over the handling of the police killings in Charlotte,
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Democrat Roy Cooper’s Gubernatorial Campaign Under Siege by African Americans and Cops Who Feel Betrayed Over Shootings
Cooper was Already on Thin Ice with Black Voters
If African American turnout in Mecklenburg Country is down substantially this fall due to anger with Democratic leaders over the handling of the police killings in Charlotte, all Democrats running in competitive statewide races in North Carolina this fall, especially Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roy Cooper, will be in big trouble. Here’s why:
- There are 227,720 black voters in Mecklenburg County (33% of all county voters)
- Black voters are 74% of all Democrats (308,052) in Mecklenburg County
- More black voters in Mecklenburg County than all Democrats in 38 counties
Many Mecklenburg County black voters were already angry with Roy Cooper over his decision last August not to retry the Charlotte police officer who shot unarmed 24-year old Jonathan Ferrell 10 times on September 14, 2013.
Ferrell, a former Florida A&M football player, had been in a car accident and was attempting to get help when a confused resident called 911 and reported an attempted break-in. Three officers arrived. Ferrell moved towards them in a way that one officer, Randall Kerrick, felt was threatening. Kerrick fired the fatal 10 shots.
Officer Kerrick was not indicted by the first grand jury that heard the case. Attorney General Roy Cooper decided to present the case to a second grand jury. That’s why cops are mad at Cooper. The panel indicted Kerrick on charges of voluntary manslaughter in January, 2014.
The trial began last July. On August 21, 2015, a mistrial was declared by the judge when the jury deadlocked 8-4 after four days of deliberation. The judge’s decision to declare a mistrial was followed by protests in Charlotte that included rocks thrown at officers.
One week later, on August 28, 2015, Attorney General Roy Cooper announced that he would not retry the voluntary manslaughter case against the officer. Cooper said that he was persuaded that a second trial would also end with a deadlocked jury.
Jonathan Ferrell’s family wanted the state to retry the police officer, as did local political leaders like U.S. Rep. Alma Adams and Corine Mack, president of the Charlotte NAACP.
Rev. Dwayne Walker, pastor of Little Rock AME Zion Church, echoed the sentiments of many black Charlotteans when he told the Charlotte Observer, “I just don’t understand how an officer can get away with shooting an unarmed man 10 times.”
Most Democrats in Charlotte agreed.
According to a poll conducted last year immediately after the mistrial, August 26-27, 2015, by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, 6-of-10 Democrats (59%) said the officer in the Jonathan Ferrell case should be retried.
The NAACP, convinced that Roy Cooper had given up on the pursuit of justice, continued to call for a new trial throughout the state.
On September 10, 2015, The Wilmington Journal carried a statement by the NAACP titled, NC NAACP responds to Attorney General Roy Cooper’s refusal to retry officer Randall Kerrick for the wrongful death of Jonathan Ferrell.
Here are highlights (abridged):
- Randall Kerrick, a white officer in Charlotte NC, shot and killed Jonathan Ferrell, an unarmed black male college student. Ferrell was shot ten times.
- While he claims he was under duress, he never used any other form of reasonable force such as pepper spray, his baton or a Taser
- Attorney General Roy Cooper has refused to retry the case stating that, “his prosecutors believe unanimously that a retrial will not yield a different result.”
This year, throughout the state, local news sources have continued to report commentary critical of Attorney General Roy Cooper’s handling of racially sensitive cases. Example: February 24, 2016, Triad City Beat: “Cooper’s track record as attorney general has left many African-American leaders across North Carolina less than enthusiastic about his candidacy.”
Police Walk Out on Cooper over Kerrick Case; Endorse McCrory
For Roy Cooper, the Jonathan Ferrell case has become a lose-lose political dilemma. Not only did African Americans around the state feel betrayed by Cooper for not retrying the case against Randall Kerrick for killing the unarmed Ferrell, but law enforcement officers around the state also felt betrayed by Cooper for seeking an indictment against Kerrick in the first place.
As Jim Morrill noted in his August 16, 2016 story Lingering anger over Kerrick case boils up in N.C. governor’s race, about a third of the officers attending the state convention of the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) walked out on Attorney General Roy Cooper as he was attempting to justify his decision to prosecute Kerrick for shooting and killing Ferrell.
According to Randy Hagler, state president of the FOP, the Kerrick case was a significant factor in why the organization, with over 6,000 members statewide, voted to endorse North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory this year. (FOP endorsed Democrat Walter Dalton in 2012.)
“We don’t defend bad officers … we try to represent the officers who are on the line making split-second decisions, and that’s the heart and soul of this entire organization,” said one of the delegates to Cooper during the Q&A session.
Then, September 23, 2016. The killing of Keith Scott, another African American male, by a Charlotte police officer. A killing followed by rioting, looting, objects thrown at officers and a protester shot dead. A state of emergency. Police camera footage withheld from the public.
Black voters in Mecklenburg County are furious with Democratic Mayor Jennifer Roberts and the Democratic majority (9-2) Charlotte City Council over the way they managed the crisis. They expressed their fury Monday night at a chaotic city council meeting, calling for the resignation of Roberts and shouting such incendiary phrases as, “Hands down – Shoot back.”
If black voter turnout in Mecklenburg County is down substantially this fall due to anger with local and state Democratic officials, all Democrats running in competitive statewide races this fall, especially Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roy Cooper, will be in big trouble.
– END –
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John N. Davis
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Did Last Night’s Charlotte City Council Meeting Doom Clinton and Democrats in the Big Four NC Council of State Races? Cooper Cannot Win the Governor’s Race Without Black Voters in Charlotte The most consequential political event last night for North Carolina may not have been the presidential debate at Hofstra University, it may have been
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Did Last Night’s Charlotte City Council Meeting Doom Clinton and Democrats in the Big Four NC Council of State Races?
Cooper Cannot Win the Governor’s Race Without Black Voters in Charlotte
The most consequential political event last night for North Carolina may not have been the presidential debate at Hofstra University, it may have been the Charlotte City Council meeting, where the Democratic Mayor and the 9-2 Democratic majority council faced the furor of African American voters over the handling of the police shooting and killing of Keith Scott last Tuesday.
According to this morning’s Charlotte Observer, A furious crowd of citizens criticized and often shouted down Charlotte City Council on Monday night, calling for resignations across the city and chanting, “Hands Down! Shoot Back!” and “No Justice, No Peace!
Turnout of African-American voters in 2016 without President Obama on the ticket has been a concern among Democrats nationwide after polling discovered early on a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton among black voters. On September 18, 2016, President Obama told the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation gala dinner audience that he would be “personally insulted” if African American voters did not turn out and vote for Clinton.
According to a story in the NY Times about the President’s comments at the gala, “Younger black voters, in particular, have expressed misgivings about Mrs. Clinton because of some of the policies of her husband’s administration. These voters specifically point to the 1994 crime bill, which put more police officers on the streets, but also led to tougher sentences for nonviolent drug offenders and the overhaul of welfare, which reduced federal assistance for the poor by nearly $55 billion over six years.”
Clinton’s struggle to spark enthusiasm among black voters in Charlotte in particular has already been the topic of considerable ink. Earlier this month, Charlotte Observer writers Fred Clasen-Kelly and Jim Morrill explored the subject in depth in a story titled, Hillary Clinton fighting ‘enthusiasm gap’ among some black voters. Here are key notes from their story:
- African-American voters, about 23% of North Carolina’s registered voters, are 33% in Mecklenburg County [227,720 African American voters of 689,663 total]
- Rapper Sean “Diddy” Combs urged blacks to hold their support and “make them come for our vote”
- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll showed 91% of NC black voters supporting Clinton but only 53% who said they were “enthusiastic” about their choice
In the final analysis, turnout of the Obama coalition of African Americans, women and Millennial voters will decide the fate of Democrats on November 8, 2016 in races like U.S. President, U.S. Senate, N.C. Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, Supreme Court Justice (Bob Edmunds’ seat), and 5 seats on the N.C. Court of Appeals.
On the other hand, the outcome of these Council of State races are likely no matter who wins the presidential turnout contest: Auditor, Commissioner of Agriculture, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Labor, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.
North Carolina Democrats are likely to hang on to four of their six Council of State offices with or without Hillary Clinton carrying the state, but unless she rekindles the political passion of African Americans and Millennials, Democrats may miss opportunities to hold Attorney General and Treasurer and pick up Lt. Governor and Governor.
Last year, on July 14, 2015, the John Davis Political Report was titled, The Five Safest Incumbents in 2016 American Politics are the Female Members of the North Carolina Council of State. I noted that their combined political campaign record was 18 wins and 0 losses. Included among the 18 vanquished foes were 16 male opponents.
Four of those five incumbent women are seeking reelection and are likely to win handily no matter who wins the presidential race.
- Elaine Marshall, D-Harnett, Secretary of State, the first woman elected to a statewide executive office (1996) in North Carolina history
- Cherie Berry, R-Catawba, first woman elected Commissioner of Labor (2000), and the first female Republican to serve on the North Carolina Council of State
- June Atkinson, D-Wake, first woman elected Supt. of Public Instruction (2004)
- Beth Wood, D-Craven, first woman elected State Auditor (2008)
The fifth incumbent woman in last July’s report was North Carolina Treasurer Janet Cowell, a Wake County Democrat elected in 2008, who is not seeking reelection.
Frankly, all five women on the North Carolina Council of State have won their campaigns without Hillary Clinton’s coattails. That’s why I argue that their combined 18-and-0 win-loss record from 1996 through 2012, suggests that they do not need Clinton to win reelection.
According to The Council of State Governments, North Carolina’s five statewide elected executive offices held by women is more than any other state. Add the five elected female executives to the seven female Judges on the NC Court of Appeals and the three female Justices on the NC Supreme Court, and you will see fertile ground for women candidates.
In addition to the four women (Democrats Marshall, Atkinson and Wood; Republican Berry) on the Council State likely to win reelection no matter who wins the presidential race, there are two men equally likely to win their races no matter who wins the presidency, Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler, R-Guilford, and Commissioner of insurance Wayne Goodwin, D-Richmond.
These facts give six of the ten Council of State members a “likely winners” status:
- Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, D-Harnett, defeated her Republican opponent in 2012 by 54% to 46%, thanks in part to a 7-to-1 fundraising advantage. Seeking her 6th term in 2016, Marshall’s midyear report with the State Board of Elections (SBOE) shows a 16-to-1 fundraising advantage.
- Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, R-Catawba, defeated her Democratic opponent in 2012 by 53% to 47% thanks in part to a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage. Seeking her 5th term in 2016, Berry’s midyear report with the SBOE shows $78,621 raised, a 1-to-4 disadvantage compared to her Democratic challenger Charles Meeker, former Raleigh Mayor, who reported raising $272,709 midyear. But, the political value of Berry’s picture in every elevator in North Carolina: priceless.
- Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson, D-Wake, defeated her Republican opponent in 2012 by 54% to 46%, thanks in part to a 4-to-1 fundraising advantage. Seeking her 4th term in 2016, Atkinson’s midyear report with the SBOE shows $87,230 raised, a 1-to-2.5 disadvantage compared to her Republican challenger Mark Johnson, a member of the Winston-Salem Forsyth County Board of Education who reported raising $209,000 midyear.
- State Auditor Beth Wood, D-Craven, defeated her Republican opponent in 2012 by 54% to 46%, thanks in part to a 16-to-1 fundraising advantage. Seeking her 3rd term in 2016, Wood’s midyear report with the SBOE shows a 5-to-1 fundraising advantage.
- Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler, R-Guilford, defeated his Democratic opponent in 2012 by 53% to 47%, thanks in part to a 17-to-1 fundraising advantage. Seeking his 4th term in 2016, Troxler’s midyear report with the SBOE shows an 8-to-1 fundraising advantage.
- Commissioner of Insurance Wayne Goodwin, D-Richmond, defeated his Republican opponent in 2012 by 52% to 48%, thanks in part to a 6-to-1 fundraising advantage. Seeking his 3rd term in 2016, Goodwin’s midyear report with the SBOE shows a 26-to-1 fundraising advantage.
Today, over a half-million more women are registered in North Carolina than men. There are 3,585,663 registered female voters (54%) compared to 3,022,545 male voters (46%).
North Carolina female candidates have outmuscled their male opponents in 34 of the 45 General Election contests since Election Year 2000, for a winning record of 75.5%. In the 2012 presidential election in North Carolina, female voters outnumbered male voters by 490,000 votes out of 4.3 million votes cast.
If Hillary Clinton manages to inspire the Obama coalition to turn out in numbers close to 2008 and 2012, the added boost of gender pride in the first female President will ensure that she wins the White House with the help of swing states like North Carolina.
However, as noted in this morning’s Charlotte Observer, if angry African Americans are shouting down and calling for the resignations of the Democratic mayor of Charlotte and the 9-2 majority Democratic council, while chanting incendiary threats like “Hands Down! Shoot Back!” and “No Justice, No Peace! … turnout of all constituencies will likely be impacted throughout Mecklenburg County.
Mecklenburg County, #1 in the state with registered voters (689,663), with 33% of those voters being African American (227,720), may well decide all of the close statewide races like U.S. President, U.S. Senate, N.C. Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, Supreme Court Justice (Bob Edmunds), and the 5 seats on the N.C. Court of Appeals.
– END –
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Profile of Likely Democratic and Likely Republican Voters Clarified in Pew Research Study; Turnout Remains Uncertain A new Pew Research Center study of the partisan makeup of U.S. voters, released September 13, 2016, shows that both Democrats and Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated. However, Democrats in America are becoming less
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Profile of Likely Democratic and Likely Republican Voters Clarified in Pew Research Study; Turnout Remains Uncertain
A new Pew Research Center study of the partisan makeup of U.S. voters, released September 13, 2016, shows that both Democrats and Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated. However, Democrats in America are becoming less white, less religious and better educated at a faster rate than the national average, while Republicans are becoming less white, less religious and better educated at a slower rate than the national average.
- Democrats have gone from 76% non-Hispanic white voters to 57% since 1992
- Republicans have gone from 93% non-Hispanic whites to 86% since 1992
Pews national study, based on 8,000 interviews, reveals that 48% of registered voters identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party, while 44% identify as Republican or lean Republican. The profile of partisan voters is now clear. Who will turn out to vote is uncertain.
Democrats: Women, Minorities, Young, Urban, Single
The coalition of 48% of American voters who consider themselves Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party is comprised primarily of women, minorities and under-50 young people. Most college graduates and post grads are Democrats. So are those who make less than $30,000 annually, along with those who are unmarried and those who live in urban areas.
- Women favor Democrats by 54% to 38%
- Blacks favor Democrats by 87% to 7%
- Hispanics favor Democrats by 63% to 27%
- Asians favor Democrats by 66% to 27%
- Millennials (18 to 35-year-olds) favor Democrats by 57% to 36%
- Gen Xers (36 to 51-year-olds) favor Democrats by 48% to 42%
- College grads favor Democrats by 53% to 41%
- Some College or less is split evenly at 46% Democratic; 46% Republican
- Family income under $30,000 favor Democrats by 60% to 32%
- Unmarried favor Democrats by 56% to 36%
- Urban favor Democrats by 60% to 33%
- % Favor Democrats: Black Protestants (88%); Hispanic Catholics (69%); Jews (74%)
Republicans: Men, White, Older, Suburban/Rural, Married
The 44% of Americans who consider themselves Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party is comprised primarily of men, white voters, and older generations of voters. Upper income households and married voters are more likely to be Republican, as are suburban and rural voters, along with non-Hispanic Protestants, Catholics and Mormons.
- Men favor Republicans by 51% to 41%
- White, non-Hispanic voters favor Republicans 54% to 39%
- Baby Boomers favor Republicans 49% to 45%
- Silent/Greatest Generation voters favor Republicans 53% to 40%
- Some College or less splits 46% ea; High Sch or less favor Republicans 59% to 33%
- Family Income over $75,000 favor Republicans 49% to 45%
- Family Income $30,000-$74,999 favor Republicans 48% to 45%
- Married voters favor Republicans 51% to 44%
- Suburban voters favor Republicans 48% to 44%
- Rural voters favor Republicans 55% to 37%
- White, non-Hispanic Evangelical Protestants favor Republicans (76% to 20%), as do Mainline Protestants (55% to 37%) and Catholics (58% to 37%)
- Mormons favor Republicans 69% to 24%
The Pew study shows a rapid aging of the Republican Party in the United States compared to 1992, when 61% were under the age of 50 and 38% over 50. Today, only 41% of Republicans are under 50, with 58% of the GOP base now over 50.
There’s been a major shift in party loyalty among 65-and-older Americans, with Republicans now enjoying a 51% to 42% lead. That’s a 9-point improvement over 2008. Conversely, the under-30 voters continue to support the Democratic Party (59%) as they did in 2008 (60%).
Who is More Likely to Vote?
In 2008 and 2012, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama won the presidential race with a sophisticated turnout operation fueled by enthusiastic African-American and young white volunteers. However, Obama was unable to rekindle that enthusiasm for Democrats in 2010 and 2014, leading to a takeover of most state governments and the U.S. Congress by the GOP.
On Monday, September 12, 2016, Dr. Rebecca Tippett, Director of Carolina Demography at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Carolina Population Center, released a report on “active, registered” North Carolina voters by generations. Tippett’s finding: “Only 67% of voting-eligible Millennials and 73% of Gen Xers are “active, registered” voters, compared to 81% of Boomers and 82% of Silent/Greatest voting-eligibles.”
Considerable ink and airtime has been given by political analysts and reporters to the topic of Hillary Clinton’s struggle to generate enthusiasm among African Americans and young voters. If Democratic turnout is more like 2004 than 2008 or 2012, Clinton’s potential plummets.
In every election year since 2008 that Obama was not on the top of the ballot, Democrats have fared poorly, even with sophisticated turnout operations, because their base lacked enthusiasm and did not turn out. Thanks to Pew Research, we now have a clear profile of voters more likely to vote Democratic and Republican. Turnout remains uncertain
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John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.
North Carolina’s Two Million Unaffiliated Voters Will Decide the Winners in All 18 Statewide Races in 2016 August 24, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 10 3:13 pm Civitas Annual Unaffiliated Poll Results On August 18, 2016, I was honored to serve as guest commentator for the Civitas luncheon featuring their annual North Carolina
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North Carolina’s Two Million Unaffiliated Voters Will Decide the Winners in All 18 Statewide Races in 2016
August 24, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 10 3:13 pm
Civitas Annual Unaffiliated Poll Results
On August 18, 2016, I was honored to serve as guest commentator for the Civitas luncheon featuring their annual North Carolina Unaffiliated Voters Poll. The Civitas Unaffiliated Voters Poll is critical insider political information in light of the fact that, per the State Board of Elections, 1,951,075 voters in North Carolina are registered Unaffiliated. Those near-two-million voters will decide the winners in all 18 statewide races in North Carolina this fall.
Unaffiliated voters are now 29% of all registered voters in the state, with Democrats at 40% (2,665,330) and Republicans at 30% (2,023,603). There are 28,781 Libertarians.
According to the Civitas survey, 1-in-4 Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina switched from the Republican Party; an almost equal number (22%) switched from the Democratic Party.
But, the true balance of the partisan market share in our state is not in how voters are registered, it is in how they are likely to vote. If you adjust the voter registration totals by the political leanings of Unaffiliated voters, the state becomes perfectly balanced, as seen in Gallup’s State of the States study, at 41% Democratic and 41% Republican.
Time was, Republicans gained a political advantage in North Carolina by adding conservative Democrats. Now, only about 15% of Democrats are predictably Republican. Today, it is the Republican-leaning Unaffiliated voters who give GOP statewide candidates even odds.
Bottom line: North Carolina’s Unaffiliated voters will decide the winners of all 18 statewide races on November 8, 2016. The races are: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, N.C. Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, Commissioner of Agriculture, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Labor, Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Treasurer, Supreme Court Justice (Bob Edmunds’ seat), and 5 seats on the N.C. Court of Appeals.
GOP Social Issues Help Dems with Urban, Young & Unaffiliated Voters
In general, North Carolina Unaffiliated voters are more Conservative (49%) than Moderate (33%) or Liberal (15%). That’s because on fiscal issues, like taxes and government spending, Unaffiliated voters are more Conservative (52%) than either Moderate (34%) or Liberal (10%).
However, on social issues, like abortion and marriage, Unaffiliated voters are twice as Liberal (31%). Only 40% consider themselves Conservative on social issues, with 26% saying they are Moderate. That’s 57% who are either Moderate (26%) or Liberal (31%).
If North Carolina Republican leaders aren’t careful, social issues will be their downfall.
Almost all of the growth in new voters in North Carolina is among 3 groups who are the least likely to be conservative on social issues: Urban voters (Wake and Mecklenburg counties have as many voters as the lowest 61 counties), Younger voters (Census Bureau says Millennials now outnumber Baby Boomers in the U.S. 75.4 million to 74.9 million), and Unaffiliated voters (29% of all North Carolina voters; 58% of all new registrations since January 2, 2016).
Most of the big cities in North Carolina, and around the nation for that matter, are run by Democrats. Urban voters prefer Democrats over Republicans because the quality of life in cities is dependent on government investment. City dwellers like museums, centers for the performing arts, jogging paths, sports arenas, great schools, parks and public transportation.
As to Millennials, every political study I have seen this year on voters born since 1980 shows that they are becoming one of the most liberal generations in American history, especially on social issues. The 50th anniversary study of American freshman by the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA concludes that “the highest percent of freshmen since 1973 say they are left of center.” Millennials are far more inclined to support Democrats over Republicans.
The USA Today – Rock the Vote survey of Millennial voters, conducted August 5-10, 2016, shows that in a four-way race, Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump by 50% to 18% among the nation’s youngest voters, with 11% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4% backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Now, because of social issues, you can add Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina to Urban voters and Millennials as those most persuadable to vote Democratic over Republicans.
The best hope in 2016 for Democrats to regain their political standing in North Carolina’s executive and judicial branches of government is to tie Republicans to conservative social issues among urban voters, Millennial’s and voters registered Unaffiliated.
Economy/Jobs and Improving Public Education Key to GOP Success
The best hope in 2016 for Republicans to maintain their political advantage in North Carolina’s executive and judicial offices is to claim ownership of the two categories of most importance to Unaffiliated voters, Economy/Jobs and Improving Public Education.
According to the new Civitas poll, an overwhelming 54% of Unaffiliated voters said that the highest priority of state government should be Economy/Jobs (29%) and Improving Public Education (25%). No other issue is even remotely close.
Fortunately for Republicans running in executive and legislative races, the list of accomplishments under the category headings of Economy/Jobs and Improving Public Education are the envy of most state government leaders throughout the United States. Here are a few:
- $2 billion infrastructure bond approved by voters
- Unemployment down to 4.7%
- $4.4 billion in tax relief
- Paid off $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt
- $1.5 billion rainy day fund
- Maintained AAA bond rating
- Average teacher pay over $50,000
- Education budgets largest in history
- High school graduation rates at all-time high
- Winner of Site Selection’s 2016 Prosperity Cup (#1 Business Competitiveness)
Perhaps that list of economic and educational accomplishments is why Unaffiliated voters in the August 2016 Civitas survey have a more favorable (46%) than unfavorable (40%) impression of Republican Governor Pat McCrory.
However, since I have learned the hard way to never rely on the results of a single poll, I decided to check the most recent Public Policy Polling statewide survey (Aug. 5-7; Likely voters) to see what Independent voters thought about McCrory (PPP is a Democratic polling firm).
- McCrory Job Approval: 47% of Independent voters “Approve;” 42% Disapprove
- 42% of Independent voters said they support Republican Pat McCrory for Governor; only 27% said that they support Democrat Roy Cooper for Governor
- Republican U.S. Senator Richard Burr has a 42% to 23% advantage among Independent voters over Democrat Deborah Ross
Once again, it is quite significant that the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling confirms the finding in the Civitas poll that Republican Governor Pat McCrory and Republican U.S. Senator Richard Burr are favored by Unaffiliated/Independent voters over Democrat Roy Cooper and Democrat Deborah Ross respectively by wide margins well outside of the margin of error.
In order for Republicans to win most of the 18 statewide races on the ballot this fall in North Carolina, it is imperative that they build on the advantages among Unaffiliated voters as shown in the Civitas statewide poll. That can be achieved by emphasizing economic and educational accomplishments under Republican leadership during the last four years.
In order for Democrats to win most of the statewide races this fall, they must persuade Unaffiliated/Independent voters that Republicans had little to do with the state’s economic recovery; that they are weakening the states 100-year commitment to public education.
The federal and state executive and judicial branches are at stake this November. The majorities on the North Carolina Supreme Court and Court of Appeals will be either a Republican or Democratic. Vacancies on the U.S. Supreme Court will be filled by liberals or conservatives.
In the final analysis, North Carolina’s nearly-two-million Unaffiliated voters will decide the winners of all 18 statewide races in this fall’s General Election.
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John Davis
Trump Won the “Most Watched” Convention Address Battle, but Clinton Won the “More Likely to Vote For” War Donald Trump’s bragging rights from having a larger TV audience for his acceptance speech than Hillary Clinton had for hers was short lived. Now, polling numbers evaluating voter opinion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions are
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Trump Won the “Most Watched” Convention Address Battle, but Clinton Won the “More Likely to Vote For” War
Donald Trump’s bragging rights from having a larger TV audience for his acceptance speech than Hillary Clinton had for hers was short lived. Now, polling numbers evaluating voter opinion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions are beginning to pour in, with early indicators pointing to relatively good news for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats and mixed reviews for Donald Trump and the Republicans.
The first poll with breaking news of public opinion of the back-to-back party conventions and their nominees was North Carolina’s own Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democrat-leaning firm highly respected on the national stage for reliability. On Sunday, July 30, PPP reported:
- View of the Democratic Party: “Favorable” 45%; “Unfavorable” 48%
- View of Hillary Clinton: “Favorable” 45%; “Unfavorable” 51%
- View of the Republican Party: “Favorable” 38%; “Unfavorable” 55%
- View of Donald Trump: “Favorable” 36%; “Unfavorable” 58%
The results of the hypothetical question, “If the election were held today,” show Clinton 46%; Trump 41%; Gary Johnson 6%; Jill Stein 2%.
As to the remaining “Undecided” voters, totaling about 5%, they do not like Clinton (4% “Favorable;” 83% “Unfavorable), nor do they like Trump (2% “Favorable;” 89% “Unfavorable”).
The allegation that Trump is in cahoots with Vladimir Putin/Russia in getting WikiLeaks to release embarrassing Democratic Party emails is likely having a negative effect on voter opinion, as only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably, to 69% who see him negatively.
Trump Scores Historic First Negative “Likely to Vote For”
On Monday morning, August 1, Gallup reported that more Americans have a “More Favorable” view of the Democratic Party (44%) after the convention than of the Republican Party (35%).
- Democratic Party: 44% “More Favorable;” 42% “Less Favorable”
- Clinton’s speech rated “Excellent/Good” by 44%; “Poor/Terrible” by 20%
- Republican Party: 35% “More Favorable;” 52% “Less Favorable”
- Trump’s speech rated “Excellent/Good” by 35%; “Poor/Terrible” by 36%
American adults participating in the survey said that they are “More Likely” (45%) than “Less Likely” (41%) to vote for Hillary Clinton after the conventions. The survey showed that Americans are “Less Likely” (51%) rather than “More Likely” (36%) to vote for Donald Trump.
Gallup has measured the national conventions for over three decades. The 2016 Republican convention is the first since 1984 that the percentage of Americans have said they are “less likely” rather than “more likely” to vote for a party’s presidential nominee as a result of what they saw or heard about the convention.
Today, August 1, 2016, the Real Clear Politics national average of all polls measuring the head-to-head race for the presidency shows Clinton with 44.9%; Trump with 42.7%. The latest North Carolina presidential average is very close to the national numbers, with Clinton at 44% and Trump at 42%.
IMPLICATIONS: Democrats did a far better job launching their nominee for president at the convention in Philadelphia than the GOP did at their convention in Cleveland. However, due to the hyper-volatility of the 2016 presidential election and the game-changing vulnerabilities of both nominees, the likely winner will be unpredictable until Election Day, November 8, 2016.
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John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.
New FEC Reports Show U.S. Sen. Richard Burr with $5 Million Cash Advantage; Ross Well Behind Former Sen. Kay Hagan This morning’s release of U.S. Sen. Richard Burr’s midyear campaign-finance report reveals a $5 million Cash on Hand advantage over Democratic rival Deborah Ross. The midyear campaign-finance report filed by Deborah Ross (D-Wake), shows a
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New FEC Reports Show U.S. Sen. Richard Burr with $5 Million Cash Advantage; Ross Well Behind Former Sen. Kay Hagan
This morning’s release of U.S. Sen. Richard Burr’s midyear campaign-finance report reveals a $5 million Cash on Hand advantage over Democratic rival Deborah Ross.
The midyear campaign-finance report filed by Deborah Ross (D-Wake), shows a total of $3,977,866 raised, with $1,909,177 Cash on Hand. Burr, a Forsyth County Republican, reported $8,309,160 raised and $6,953,253 Cash on Hand.
To put Ross’ fundraising totals in perspective, former US Senator Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) had four times the total Cash on Hand ($8,729,330) at the midyear mark in 2014. But to be fair, that’s simply a reflection of the power of incumbency, the bane of all challengers.
In 2014, when all was said and done, former US Senator Kay Hagan had raised $22,520,800, and still lost to Thom Tillis (R-Mecklenburg), who raised $11,000,378.
In addition to Hagan’s $22.5 million raised, she benefited from another $7.3 million spent on positive ads on her behalf by outside groups, and another $31.6 million spent by outside groups attacking Republican challenger Thom Tillis.
Will outside groups spend tens of millions of dollars on Ross’ behalf in 2016?
Sen. Richard Burr defeated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall in 2010 by 54.8% to 43%. That margin of victory is a significant indicator of his strength as a campaigner. It will take tens of millions of dollars on Ross’ behalf to defeat an incumbent as influential and effective as Burr.
If Kay Hagan, an incumbent U.S. Senator with a 2-to-1 fundraising advantage and $40 million in outside support in 2014, can’t fend off a Republican challenger, then maybe North Carolina is not the fertile ground for a 2016 U.S. Senate seat pickup that Democrats had hoped.
IMPLICATIONS: The disappointment among Democrats in 2014 over the loss of the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, the most expensive in the United States with $113.5 million total dollars spent, is likely chilling the fundraising efforts of Democrat Deborah Ross in 2016.
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John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr Gets Big Break as Democratic Opponent Deborah Ross Fails to Make Top 10 Challengers U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-NC, got a big break on June 30, 2016, when Roll Call’s Senate Challenger Rankings did not include his Democratic opponent, Deborah Ross, in the Top 10 challengers running in U.S. Senate
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U.S. Sen. Richard Burr Gets Big Break as Democratic Opponent Deborah Ross Fails to Make Top 10 Challengers
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-NC, got a big break on June 30, 2016, when Roll Call’s Senate Challenger Rankings did not include his Democratic opponent, Deborah Ross, in the Top 10 challengers running in U.S. Senate races. Ross’ weak Roll Call evaluation, based on fundraising, election history, the quality of the campaigns and the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, means she will struggle to raise money the remainder of the campaign.
Roll Call noted that Ross was “not the Democrats’ first choice,” and that her “tenure as head of the state American Civil Liberties Union is already coming back to haunt her.” Ross’ ACLU record was attacked by fellow Democrats in the primary, who argued that her opposition to a sex-offender registry and the Ten Commandments in public schools made her “unelectable.”
As of July 11, 2016, Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report, lists North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr in his “Leans Republican” column. UVA’s Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball also has Sen. Richard Burr in the “Leans Republican” column, as does the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.
The Real Clear Politics average of all polling data in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race shows Burr with 42.3% over Ross’ 38.7%. The most recent poll in this race, conducted July 5-11 by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist, shows Burr up 7 points over Ross, 48% to 41%.
First Quarter reports filed with the FEC show Burr’s fundraising at $7.2 million; Ross at $1.9 million. New reports, due any day, will tell whether Burr is maintaining a funding advantage.
Implications: You can’t beat a powerful incumbent without money, and you can’t raise money if the consensus is you are not a strong challenger. Although Deborah Ross is not seen as a strong challenger, Democrats may well take back the Senate in 2016.
Democratic Senate Majority Likely If Clinton Wins Presidency
Currently, Republicans enjoy a 54-seat majority in the United States Senate. However, Democrats only need to net five U.S. Senate pick-ups to regain the majority; four if they win the White House, as the Vice President breaks tie votes. Their opportunities are abundant.
- Democrats are defending only 10 seats; Republicans are defending 24 seats
- No Democrat incumbent is running in a state carried by Mitt Romney in 2012
- 7 GOP seats are in states Obama won in 2012 (FL, IL, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI)
The Cook Political Report lists those same seven U.S. Senate races (FL, IL, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI) as “Toss Up”, with only one Democratic-held senate seat on the list, Nevada, “Open” due to the retirement of Democratic senate leader Harry Reed.
Implications: If Democrats win the White House, they will likely win the U.S. Senate majority. If Republicans win the White House, they will likely hold the U.S. Senate majority.
U.S. Supreme Court: Either 6-3 Liberal or 7-2 Conservative
With the same party likely in power in the White House and the U.S. Senate after the 2016 elections, the U.S. Supreme Court will become decidedly liberal under Democrats or very conservative under a Republican administration (President appoints; Senate confirms).
The average age of retirement for Supreme Court justices is 79 years-old. In 2017, three justices will become 79 years-old or older: liberals Breyer (79) and Ginsburg (84), along with Kennedy (81), a frequent swing vote.
If all three Supreme Court justices 79 years-old or older were replaced by a Democratic president and U.S. Senate, and a liberal was appointed to the seat once held by Justice Scalia, who died February 13, 2016, the court would shift left with a 6-3 liberal majority.
If Republicans win the White House, they will hold the U.S. Senate majority and stack the federal judiciary with conservatives. If Breyer, Ginsburg and Kennedy retire during a Republican administration and a Republican-majority U.S. Senate, the U.S. Supreme Court would become a 7-2 conservative court, if you include a conservative replacement to Justice Scalia’s seat.
Implications: If Democrats stack the U.S. Supreme court with liberals, they will win litigated laws like abortion, ObamaCare, affirmative action, guns, election laws, executive power, immigration, religion, LGBT rights, the environment and regulatory authority. If Republicans stack the court with conservatives, they will prevail on all of those issues … to name a few.
Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, a Forsyth County two-term Republican who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, is on track to win a third term.
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Thanks for reading JDPR TrendLines
John N. Davis
Need a Political Speaker? If you would like a sensible summary of the status of federal and state elections, go here to check my availability. All of my speeches are tailored for each audience, focusing only on the likely winners and implications of the elections you choose.
JDPR TrendLines is an executive summary feature of the John Davis Political Report. The objective is to provide readers timely assessments of the political implications of the latest opinion polls and breaking news.