Gov. Pat McCrory Preaches Prosperity while Defending HB2 in America’s 9th Most Religious State May 27, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 6 3:13 pm Preaching Prosperity On May 2, 2016, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory’s campaign for reelection received a major boost from Site Selection Magazine when the state was selected as the winner
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Gov. Pat McCrory Preaches Prosperity while Defending HB2 in America’s 9th Most Religious State
May 27, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 6 3:13 pm
Preaching Prosperity
On May 2, 2016, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory’s campaign for reelection received a major boost from Site Selection Magazine when the state was selected as the winner of the coveted Prosperity Cup, honoring the #1 place in America for business competitiveness.
Now, let me stop right here and ask my Democrat friends if being the #1 place in America for doing business would be a big deal if a Democrat were governor?
Arguably, there is no award more valuable politically to the reelection of an incumbent governor in the wake of the worst recession since the Great Depression than the Prosperity Cup.
The accolades heaped on North Carolina since McCrory was inaugurated January 5, 2013 are remarkable and abundant.
The state’s economic output has grown by 13.4 percent on McCrory’s watch, the fastest of any state. For emphasis: no state has increased its GDP faster than North Carolina, a claim rated as “True” by POLITIFACT North Carolina.
Like it or not, North Carolina has become an oasis of politically valuable government reform and dynamic economic growth. An oasis? You doubt that? Think about Washington DC. Read on.
So, we’re the #1 place in America for business, we lead the nation in economic growth, and, voters are so confident that the state is in good hands that they approved Connect NC, a $2 billion infrastructure bond in March by a whopping 2-to-1 landslide victory margin (66%-to-34%).
Voters in 76 of 100 counties will see the Connect NC bond money being spent locally. Investments in the UNC System, the NC Community College System, state parks, National Guard, water/sewer projects, the state zoo and agriculture research.
The 2016 race for governor is a referendum on Gov. McCrory’s first term. Under McCrory’s leadership, the unemployment rate has steadily improved in all 100 counties. Other advances:
- $4.4 billion in tax relief (personal and corporate)
- Paid off $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt to the feds
- $1 billion rainy day fund has been set aside (largest in history)
- Maintained AAA bond rating (only 10 states have AAA rating)
- Education budgets largest in history
- Teacher salaries have increased more than any other state
- Exports grew at twice the national average
- Ranked as one of the most innovative states in the nation
- High School graduation rates at an all-time high
- $1.6 billion in highway construction projects on the drawing boards
- Major tort, regulatory and energy reforms (permitting “fracking”)
Following the current session of the General Assembly, look for Governor McCrory to double-down on his list of accomplishments, adding politically critical claims like “the fastest growing teacher salaries in the nation.”
All Roy Cooper can do is promise to do a better job than Pat McCrory. Better than the Prosperity Cup? Better than the #1 GDP in America? Better than a $2 billion infrastructure bond? Better than the fastest growing teacher salaries in the nation?
Growing prosperity in North Carolina is the single most important reason why it is going to be very difficult for Roy Cooper to make the argument that there is a compelling reason to change the state’s chief executive. But there is another reason: HB2.
Defending HB2 in the 9th Most Religious State
North Carolina was targeted by the national LGBT-focused Human Rights Campaign to initiate the non-discrimination ordinance passed by the Charlotte City Council that prompted HB2. Evidence that North Carolina is an ideal target for LGBT political action is abundant.
Gallup’s State of the States analysis, ranking states by political ideology and partisan persuasions, reveals that despite GOP dominance of state government, North Carolina is only the 30th most Republican-friendly state in the country. We are the 20th most Democratic-friendly state.
Republicans/Lean Republican
- Wyoming #1 Republican state in the U.S. at 59.6%; 27.8% favor Democrats
- Top 10 Republican-friendly states are Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alabama, Alaska, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Carolina
- North Carolina is #30 most Republican at 41.3%; 41.5% favor Democrats
- National average is 40.1% Republican; 43% Democratic
Democrat/Lean Democrat
- Vermont is #1 Democrat state in the U.S. at 51.9%; 30.2% Republicans
- Top 10 Democrat-friendly states are Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Maryland, Rhode Island, California, New Mexico, Connecticut, Illinois
- North Carolina is #20 most Democratic-friendly state
Democrats have every reason to be encouraged that their dream of regaining the upper hand in state politics in North Carolina will be realized.
North Carolina is quickly becoming an urban dominant state. Urban voters are more progressive and tolerant than most; they favor Democrats over Republicans. They are younger.
As Baby Boomers decline in number, Millennial voters are emerging as the fastest growing voting bloc. Politically, Millennial’s are more liberal than any generation in American history.
North Carolina is becoming a more diverse state. Women outnumber men by 54% to 46% in the total number of registered voters. In 2012, out of 4.5 million votes cast, a decisive 490,000 more women voted in North Carolina than men.
If Republicans do not earn the respect of urban voters, younger voters, women voters and North Carolina’s fast-growing communities of international, religious, ethnic, and ideological diversity, it’s simply a matter of time when they will lose the opportunity to lead the state.
Again, from the State of the State report, North Carolina is the 20th “Most Conservative.”
Conservatives/Moderates/Liberals
- National average is 35.7% Conservative, 36% Moderate; 23.2% Liberal
- Top 10 most Conservative states are Alabama, Idaho, Arkansas, North Dakota, Utah, Mississippi, Wyoming, Louisiana, Oklahoma
- North Carolina is the 20th most Conservative state
- North Carolina is 39.1% Conservative; 36.3% Moderate; 19.6% Liberal
So, you can see why groups like the Human Rights Campaign would target North Carolina; why state Democrats would think that 2016 offers an opportunity to regain political power.
But there is an anomaly in the Gallup State of the State study that helps inform why Republicans are encouraged that they will survive the potential political threat of the uproar over the HB2 legislation. You see, the same state that is only the 30th most Republican friendly and the 20th most conservative state … is also the 9th most religious state.
That’s the political fact about North Carolina that Democrats failed to value when they chose to join forces willy-nilly with the Human Rights Campaign in opposition to HB2.
Very Religious/Moderately Religious/Nonreligious
- National average is 40% Very Religious; 29% Moderately; 31% Nonreligious
- North Carolina is 49% Very Religious; 29% Moderately; 22% Nonreligious
- Top 10 Very Religious states are Mississippi, Alabama, Utah, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky
- North Carolina is the 9th most religious state in the United States
A new study by Gallup released May 26, 2016 shows that 50% of Americans are Protestant Christians, and that only 41% of Protestant Christians believe LGBT relations are morally acceptable. Those who seek to lead a religious swing state like North Carolina must honor religious conservatives while at the same time ensuring that no one is discriminated against.
Protestants throughout America are tired of having their religious beliefs disrespected in debates like the one surrounding HB2 in North Carolina. Tired of having their religious values debased by those who think it’s clever to erect billboards that read, Welcome to North Carolina. Due to our stance on LGBT rights, please set your clock back 100 years.
North Carolina leaders are not alone in their concerns about the uncertainties of the growth of the entirely new body of laws relating to gender identity. Again, this is all new law.
Eleven states have filed a lawsuit against the Obama administration, accusing them of violating the U.S. Constitution by turning “workplaces and educational settings across the country into laboratories for a massive social experiment, flouting the democratic process and running roughshod over common-sense policies protecting children and basic privacy rights.”
It is because of litigation that HB2 is ultimately going to be a win-win politically. These lawsuits are likely to lead to a clarification of issues relating to privacy rights in bathrooms and locker rooms and establish new definitions and protections for LGBT citizens.
The bottom line is that an incumbent governor in a Southern state with an improving economy and a successful first term is in a far greater position to parlay his power and influence into a political advantage than a Democratic challenger.
The accolades that McCrory can use in his political battle with Roy Cooper this fall continue to amass. Most governors will never but dream of winning the Prosperity Cup, seeing their state ranked as the #1 place in the United States for business competitiveness; enjoying the fulfillment that comes from knowing your state has the fastest growing GDP in the nation.
Thanks to an improving economy, a record of accomplishment that now includes the $2 billion Connect NC infrastructure bond, coupled with a visionary plan, plenty of money, personal likability and crossover appeal among independent-leaning Democrats, Governor Pat McCrory enjoys a decisive advantage in the race for governor.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John Davis
President Kasich Most Likely to Succeed where President Obama Failed; the United States of America March 31, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 5 10:13 am Obama’s Regret In the beginning, President Barack Obama intended to unite Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans in an all-out assault on the nation’s problems. He didn’t. He
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President Kasich Most Likely to Succeed where President Obama Failed; the United States of America
March 31, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 5 10:13 am
Obama’s Regret
In the beginning, President Barack Obama intended to unite Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans in an all-out assault on the nation’s problems. He didn’t. He didn’t because national unity was never as important as ideological pride.
Now, in the final months of his administration, the nation is bitterly divided; the federal government hopelessly dysfunctional. Debilitating problems are compounded daily by inaction.
The Democratic president and his allies have said either accept the liberal alternative or we will circumvent Congress with executive orders. The Republican Congress and their allies have insisted either accept the conservative solution or we will shut down the government.
And so, we have become the house divided that President Lincoln cautioned against and President Obama intended to avoid. “It’s one of the few regrets of my presidency,” Obama said during his January 13, 2016, State of the Union Address, “that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better.”
It wasn’t supposed to end this way.
On January 3, 2005, the cover of Newsweek magazine featured a picture of newly-elected U.S. Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, with the title, Seeing Purple: A Rising Star Who Wants to Get beyond Blue Versus Red.
The story was about how an unknown Illinois state senator with a funny name inspired tens of millions of Americans with a nationally televised keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in Boston in 2004. His message was one of hope that Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans could work together to solve the nation’s problems.
“There is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America,” Obama implored as Democrats cheered, “There is not a black America and a white America and Latino America and Asian America — there’s the United States of America.”
But something happened to that rising star who dreamed of leading the country beyond blue versus red into an era of collaborative problem-solving. On January 31, 2008, the National Journal published its ratings of members of Congress, disclosing that the #1 most liberal member of the U.S. Senate was Barack Obama. Ideological pride had obscured his vision of a united America.
Now, eleven years after the speech that launched his presidential aspirations, President Obama finds himself face to face with the realization that his failure to unite the country has severely limited his legacy. His polarizing leadership style is why voters gave Republicans majorities in the U.S. Senate and House, and why most state capitals have become hotbeds of conservative activism.
Republicans are no better
Of course, Republicans have contributed their fair share to the worsening of the rancor and suspicion between the parties. On October 23, 2010, then-U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, stated in an interview with the National Journal, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one term president.”
U.S. House Republicans have shown no respect for diversity of opinion in America. Like Obama, ideological pride has kept them from collaborative problem solving. King Solomon was right when he wrote in Proverbs 16:18, “Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.” A haughty liberal President; haughty Congressional conservatives. A fall.
Ideological haughtiness is why most of the major problems faced by the United States at the beginning of the Obama administration are for all practical purposes the same as the problems we face today. Government is still rigged by the politically influential; trade deficits are still counted in the hundreds of billions, new 21st century economic superpowers are integrating their economies around the world, becoming less and less dependent on the United States consumer.
The national debt has doubled to over $19 trillion under President Obama, healthcare funding is chaotic, immigration policy is unenforceable and terrorism continues to creep closer to home. Saddest of all, 1-in-6 Americans live in poverty; 45 million are on food stamps. The dignity of employment has given way to a lifetime of dependency on government.
Who can unite the country?
The 2016 presidential race offers American voters the single most influential opportunity to end the rancor and suspicion between the parties and begin a new era of leaders who will swallow their ideological pride and work together to solve the nation’s problems. Only one candidate still in the running has exemplified the personal character and leadership style to unite the country, and that candidate is John Kasich, Governor of Ohio.
Hillary Clinton could not unite the country. On October 13, 2015, Clinton told Anderson Cooper during the CNN Presidential Debate that the enemy she was proudest of was Republicans. She would be a third Obama term. Just another polarizing, haughty liberal president.
Clinton has a -11 net favorable opinion in Gallup’s March 30, 2016 study of the views Americans have of the leading presidential contenders. Comparatively, Bernie Sanders has greater potential to be a unifying force in America than Clinton. The new Gallup study shows Sanders with a +10 net favorable rating. But conservatives would never unite behind a socialist.
Ted Cruz could not unite the country. He is the consummate ideologically haughty conservative who has no respect for diversity of opinion in the United States. If Cruz were to become president in 2016, voters would give both houses of Congress to the Democrats in 2018.
Cruz has a -16 net favorable opinion in the March 30, 2016 Gallup study. In today’s Real Clear Politics matchup’s of potential General Election competitors, Ted Cruz would lose to Clinton and Sanders.
Donald Trump could not unite the country. He has managed to alienate most of America’s women and minorities with offensive statements, personal views and conduct and that clearly disqualify him from any further consideration.
Trump has a -35 net favorable opinion in the March 30, 2016 Gallup study. A whopping 65% of all Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. A new CNN poll released last Thursday, March 24, 2016, found that 73% of registered female voters in the United States have an unfavorable view of Trump. Trump has no chance of winning. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump would lose to Clinton by 11 points and Sanders by 17 points this fall.
John Kasich could unite the country. Gallup’s new study of presidential contenders has Kasich with a net favorable opinion among Americans of +19 points, the highest of any candidate. But the best indicator of Kasich’s potential to unite the country can be found in CBS News exit polls the day he won 86 of 88 counties in his 2014 campaign for reelection as Governor of Ohio.
Republican Governor John Kasich, in a state carried twice by President Obama, won the backing of 60% of female voters, 56% of 18-to-29-year-old voters, 26% of African-American voters, 25% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, 69% of Independents, and 53% of union households.
President Barack Obama intended to unite Blue State Democrats and Red State Republicans in an all-out assault on the nation’s problems. He didn’t. National unity was never as important as ideological pride.
President Kasich is the most likely to succeed where President Obama failed; the United States of America.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report 
John N. Davis
NC Governor’s Race: Big Primary Victory and Connect NC Win Give General Election Advantage to McCrory March 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 4 4:13 pm Connect NC wins 2-to-1; McCrory wins 82% On Tuesday, March 15, 2016, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory seized the advantage in his race for a second term with
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NC Governor’s Race: Big Primary Victory and Connect NC Win Give General Election Advantage to McCrory
March 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 4 4:13 pm
Connect NC wins 2-to-1; McCrory wins 82%
On Tuesday, March 15, 2016, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory seized the advantage in his race for a second term with an 82% Republican primary victory and a 2-to-1 win (66%-to-34%) for Connect NC, a $2 billion infrastructure bond.
McCrory’s primary rout erases any doubt about his solid support among Republicans. But even more important is the political value of the Connect NC bond win to his race in the General Election with Attorney General Roy Cooper, the Democratic Party nominee.
Voters in 76 of 100 counties will see the Connect NC bond money being spent locally. Investments include well-regarded institutions like the UNC System, the NC Community College System, state parks, National Guard, water/sewer projects, the state zoo and agriculture research.
As accomplished and capable as Roy Cooper is, the 2016 race for governor is a referendum on Gov. McCrory’s first term. Now, thanks to an improving economy, his leadership on the budget and Connect NC, he has plenty of feathers in his cap to impress persuadable voters.
Under McCrory’s leadership, the unemployment rate has steadily improved, taxes have been cut, a $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt to the federal government has been paid, a $1 billion rainy day fund has been set aside, and K-12 funding has been increased.
However, those accomplishments have a partisan taint. Deals between a Republican governor and a Republican-led legislature. The unique political value of Connect NC is that it had overwhelming bipartisan support.
Swing State Crossover Appeal
Pat McCrory’s seven terms as Mayor of the City of Charlotte seasoned him well to lead an urban dominant swing state. His successful leadership of the Connect NC bond referendum adds to his potential for winning crossover independent-leaning Democratic voters statewide.
McCrory understands that quality of life not only depends on government investment in urban priorities like public transportation, performing arts centers and sports arenas, but it also depends on the state’s investment in broader priorities like the UNC System, NC Community College System, state parks, National Guard, the state zoo and agriculture research.
Look for the Connect NC bond referendum victory to have an immediate positive impact on McCrory’s job approval in public opinion polls. More importantly, it will make it increasingly difficult for Democratic nominee Roy Cooper to make the case that only Democrats are visionaries willing to make progressive investments in the quality of life of all North Carolinians.
Granted, Roy Cooper’s latest report to the State Board of Elections shows him with $5.7 million Cash on Hand compared to McCrory’s $4.3 million. However, it’s early in the fundraising cycle; and, it will take a far greater advantage than he currently has to persuade voters that there is a compelling reason to change governors in light of McCrory’s first-term accomplishments.
Southern Democrats have an Inherent Disadvantage
All Southern states have Republican governors except two, Virginia and Louisiana.
David Vitter, the GOP nominee for governor in Louisiana last fall, lost because he got caught with prostitutes. His telephone number was found in the “D.C. Madam’s” client book.
Virginia has a Democrat in the governor’s mansion because the GOP radical right took over the state convention and nominated Ken Cuccinelli, an arch conservative that the establishment refused to support financially. Literally. Just two outside SuperPACs (gun control and environmental issues), spent more money against Cuccinelli than he raised all year.
Not true in North Carolina. North Carolina’s GOP establishment is well behind Gov. Pat McCrory. And, after an 82% win in the Republican gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, it’s obvious that the rank-and-file is also fairly satisfied with McCrory.
The bottom line is that a Republican incumbent governor in a Southern state with an improving economy and a successful first term is in a far greater position to parlay his power and influence into a political advantage than a challenger with an inherent disadvantage.
The inherent disadvantage of all Southern Democratic candidates is that the Democratic Party continues to cling to 20th century leaders and ideas as if they are sacred relics.
Democrats in North Carolina are not the enlightened party they once were. And, they have no hope of becoming the enlightened party until they say goodbye to the glory days of yore.
That inherent disadvantage is why Democrats continue to lose the South, and why they will not be of much help to Cooper; that is unless they change with respect for the new Southern voter.
Thanks to an improving economy, a record of accomplishment that now includes the $2 billion Connect NC infrastructure bond, coupled with a visionary plan, plenty of money, personal likability and crossover appeal among independent-leaning Democrats, McCrory begins the General Election race with a decisive advantage in the race for Governor of North Carolina.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Is Trump at all a Good Man? Is He at all a Steady Hand? Do His Accomplishments Thunder Louder than His Words? February 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 3 4:13 pm In Memoriam: Antonin Scalia, 1936-2016; first Italian American Supreme Court Justice. Georgetown, Valedictorian; Harvard Law, Magna Cum Laude. Family. Faith. Champion of
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Is Trump at all a Good Man? Is He at all a Steady Hand? Do His Accomplishments Thunder Louder than His Words?
February 16, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 3 4:13 pm
In Memoriam: Antonin Scalia, 1936-2016; first Italian American Supreme Court Justice. Georgetown, Valedictorian; Harvard Law, Magna Cum Laude. Family. Faith. Champion of conservative jurisprudence.
Is Trump a good man? A steady hand?
On Friday, February 12, 2016, The Wall Street Journal Columnist Peggy Noonan wrote an opinion piece titled, Trump, Sanders and the American Rebellion, in which she raised two compelling questions about the suitability of Donald Trump for the Oval Office.
First, after suggesting that Trump’s political future will be determined by the answers to her questions, Noonan asks, “Is he at all a good man? Underneath the foul mouthed flamboyance is he in it for America?” Then, Noonan asks, “Is he fully stable? He acts like a nut, calling people bimbos, flying off the handle with grievances. Is he mature, reliable? Is he at all a steady hand?”
Before I answer those questions, I want to remind you that I have not been kind to Trump.
Last August 12, 2015, in a report titled, Trump the Naked Streaker at the Pregame Show, I wrote that Trump was merely the “pre-game entertainment,” and that he was only in the race to promote his business interests.
Again, on August 19, 2015, I reminded readers in a report titled, Trumped-up Political Credibility, that Donald Trump told Fortune magazine in an article published April 3, 2000, “It’s very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it.”
However, since last August, I have grown to appreciate why American voters have given up on the Bush/Obama era of Republican and Democratic leaders in Washington. I understand why so many working class Americans have embraced a braggadocios foul-mouthed outsider like Trump.
Voters see clearly now that the federal government is rigged by both parties for the benefit of their most loyal political constituencies along with those who fund their campaigns.
Voters now know that congressional groups who wave the righteous banners of “rights,” “values,” and “principles” like the Democratic Congressional Black Caucus and the Republican Freedom Caucus are nothing more than partisan extremists who would sell the country down the river before they would buy each other a cup of coffee and work together to find compromise solutions to the nation’s problems.
For ten years, “principled” congressional leaders in both parties have had the authority to solve the problems of the day and they have not done it. War, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare, deficit spending, the national debt and the culture of corruption are all still on the most important problems list and getting worse.
That’s why voters have concluded in 2016 that the last thing America needs is more “principled” leadership in Washington. We already have 535 “principled” members of Congress along with a principled president. Principled leaders are responsible for the institutionalized ineptitude that characterizes the United States federal government.
Is Trump at all a good man? Is he at all a steady hand? Do his accomplishments thunder louder than his words?
Do Trump’s accomplishments thunder louder than his words?
There are four reasons so many working class Americans have embraced a braggadocios foul-mouthed outsider like Donald Trump.
1) Authenticity/Honesty (not like our “principled,” politically/ideologically correct leaders);
2) Not for Sale/Self-funded (not like our “principled” leaders who sell access and influence);
3) Hopeful/Positive Message “Make America Great Again” (not like our “principled” Congress who put political and ideological bickering ahead of collaborative problem-solving)
4) Extraordinarily Successful in creating wealth and job opportunities worldwide during a time when working class Americans and the U.S. government need new wealth/income/revenue.
Is Trump at all a good man? Is he at all a steady hand?
I would like to answer those two questions in the context of an adage attributed to Ralph Waldo Emerson, paraphrasing, what we do thunders louder than what we say.
- Do Trump’s business accomplishments here in the U.S. and around the world thunder so loudly that they drown out the foolishness we hear him say on the stump?
- Are character strengths that enable the building of a global business empire useful to political consensus building and problem solving in the Oval Office?
Think about those questions while you look at the following list of accomplishments:
Trump Tower, New York City
Trump World Tower, New York City
Trump Parc, New York City
Trump Parc East, New York City
Trump Park Avenue, New York City
Trump Palace, New York City
Trump Place, New York City
610 Park Avenue, New York City
Trump Plaza, New York City
Trump International Hotel & Tower, New York City
Trump International Hotel & Tower, Chicago
Trump International Hotel, Las Vegas
Trump International Golf Links & Hotel, Aberdeen, Scotland
Trump International Golf Links & Hotel, Doonbeg, Ireland
Trump Turnberry Resort, Scotland
Trump International Hotel, Washington DC
Trump International Golf Club, Palm Beach, Florida
Trump National Golf Club, Jupiter, Florida
Trump National Golf Club, Washington DC
Trump National Doral, Miami
Trump National Golf Club, Colts Neck, NJ
Trump National Golf Club, Westchester, NY
Trump National Golf Club, Hudson Valley, NY
Trump National Golf Club, Bedminster, NJ
Trump National Golf Club, Philadelphia
Trump National Golf Club, Los Angeles
Trump National Golf Club, Charlotte
Trump Golf Links at Ferry Point, Bronx, NY
The Albemarle Estate at Trump Winery, Charlottesville
Trump Vineyard Estates, Charlottesville
The Mar-A-Lago Club, Palm Beach, Florida
The Estates at Trump National, Los Angeles
Le Château des Palmiers, St. Martin
Trump Seven Springs, Bedford, NY
Townhouses adjacent to Trump Plaza, New York City
Two Private Homes in Palm Beach, Florida
Private Home in Beverly Hills, CA
40 Wall Street, New York City
NikeTown, New York City
1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York City
555 California St., San Francisco, CA
Two Shopping Centers in New York City
Trump Tower Mumbai, India
Trump Towers Pune, India
Trump Towers Istanbul, Turkey
Trump Tower Punta del Este, Uruguay
Trump Tower at Century City, Philippines
Trump Hollywood, CA
Trump International Beach Resort, Miami
Trump Towers Sunny Isles, Miami
The Estates at Trump International Golf Club, Dubai, UAE
Trump Hotel Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Waikiki, Hawaii
Trump Ocean Club, Panama City, Panama
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Vancouver, Canada
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Toronto, Canada
Trump Soho, New York City
Trump Tower at City Center, White Plains, NY
Trump Plaza New Rochelle, NY
Trump Parc Stamford, Connecticut
Trump Park Residences Yorktown, NY
Trump Plaza Residences, Jersey City, NJ
Trump International Hotel and Tower, Lido, West Java, Indonesia
Trump World Golf Club, Dubai, UAE
Donald Trump is a graduate of the Wharton School of Finance. He has written more than 15 books, including, The Art of the Deal, one of the most successful business books of all time.
But, are the character strengths that enabled Trump to build a global business empire useful to political consensus building and problem solving in our nation’s capital?
Think about what our 535 “principled” members of Congress and our “principled” President have accomplished with our national problems like war, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare, deficit spending, the national debt and the culture of corruption.
Trump voters have concluded that you simply cannot accomplish what their candidate has accomplished without having extraordinary leadership qualities, the kind that lend themselves to the skill set needed in the Oval Office today; foremost among them, the skill to create wealth and job opportunities in America by negotiating successful deals with egotistical adversaries in Washington and in capitals around the world.
Is Trump at all a good man? Is he at all a steady hand?
Do his accomplishments thunder louder than his words?
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
What Choice Do American Voters Have in 2016 Other Than a Revolutionary Political Realignment? February 5, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 2 10:13 am Authentic Revolutionary Leaders with Money are Dangerous If a 74-year-old Independent socialist can come from 41 points behind to tie the most admired woman in the world in the Democratic
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What Choice Do American Voters Have in 2016 Other Than a Revolutionary Political Realignment?
February 5, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 2 10:13 am
Authentic Revolutionary Leaders with Money are Dangerous
If a 74-year-old Independent socialist can come from 41 points behind to tie the most admired woman in the world in the Democratic Caucus in Iowa thanks to a 70-point advantage (84% to 14%) among-18-to-29-year-old voters, then a political realignment is underway.
If Bernie Sanders, an authentic political revolutionary, can raise $75.1 million with an anti-Wall Street/Washington D.C. battle cry about “a rigged economy where the wealthiest 1% earn 99% of new income while middle class wages stagnate,” then a political realignment led by an authentic revolutionary against Washington D.C. ineptitude and private greed is underway.
Authentic revolutionary leaders with money are dangerous.
If the top two winners of the Iowa Republican Caucus include the most despised Republican U.S. Senator in the 54-member Senate Republican Conference (Ted Cruz: 27.6%) and a rogue, bombastic billionaire with bad hair and no elective office experience (Trump 24.3%), then a political realignment led by authentic revolutionaries is underway.
Further evidence of a major realignment in the GOP is the fact that the top four vote-getters in the Iowa Republican Caucus, with a combined landslide total of 84.3%, include two Cuban American first-term U.S. Senators (Cruz 27.6%; Rubio 23.1%), an African American neurosurgeon with no experience in public office (Carson 9.3%), and Trump (24.3%).
Those top four non-traditional Iowa Republican Caucus winners have raised $250 million (Cruz $89.9 million; Rubio $77.2 million; Carson $64.2; Trump $19.4).
Authentic revolutionary leaders with money are dangerous.
Only Authentic Revolutionary Leaders Need Apply
The political realignment of 2016 transcends all traditional notions of reasonable behavior and tenants of electability. Those who have worked their way up the ladder of public elective leadership over time are now seen as part of the problem.
Hillary Clinton, the grande dame of American politics, finds herself out of place at the casting call for the lead role in the new drama about America’s future. She desperately clings to a sense of superior capability, yet younger voters only see an old general fighting the last war.
Jeb Bush has raised $155.5 million, more money than any competitor, but he, like Hillary, is not an authentic revolutionary leader. They are members of privileged family political dynasties.
Jeb Bush, like Charles and Thomas Adams, sons and brothers of U.S. Presidents, John Adams (1797-1801) and John Quincy Adams (1825-1829), is the son and brother of presidents who yearns to be his own man but cannot escape the gravity of Bush administration baggage.
All presidential elections are about the future. Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are mired in the past. They are the consummate establishment candidates during an antiestablishment election-year that sees most voters realigning behind authentic revolutionary leaders.
Why are voters demanding authentic revolutionary leaders in 2016? Because the most important problems facing the country in 2016 are the same problems the country faced in 2006.
2006 List of National Problems is the Same as the 2016 List
The first act of the 2016 presidential campaign drama was written ten years ago in 2006.
That was the year when Republicans all over America turned on GOP President George W. Bush and a Republican-led U.S. Congress because they were spending money like liberal Democrats while neglecting the public’s most important concerns about war, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare and a culture of corruption in DC.
Democrats seized on the disdain Republicans felt for their own leaders and won a majority in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as a majority of the nation’s governors and state legislators. In 2007, they elected the first woman U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Unfortunately for Republicans, the list of the most important voter concerns of 2006 had not changed by the time presidential election year 2008 rolled around. Barack Obama won the race for the Oval Office because Americans no longer trusted a Republican president with the list.
Unfortunately for Democrats, President Obama neglected the list of the most important voter concerns of 2006 and decided instead to make his own list, putting healthcare at the top when voters were reeling from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
In 2010, it was Democrats who turned against the Democratic establishment in Washington, ceding the U.S. House and a majority of state governments to Republicans.
Then came the presidential election of 2012 and the midterm elections of 2014. Republicans argued that President Obama was to blame for lack of progress on the 2006 list of national problems. Democrats insisted that the Republican hardliners in Congress were to blame.
For ten years, establishment leaders in both parties have been given the power to solve the problems of the day and they have not done it. War, terrorism, jobs, the economy, immigration, poverty, social security, healthcare, deficit spending, the national debt and the culture of corruption in Washington DC, are all still on the list and getting worse.
Hence, you are seeing a political realignment in 2016 led by authentic revolutionaries with money. Most Americans have concluded that the reason the nation’s problems have not been solved is because of inept establishment leaders in Washington, DC.
Look at the list. What choice do voters have in 2016 other than a revolutionary realignment?
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
How the GOP Congress and President Obama became the #1 Problem in America and Made Trump the #1 Solution January 15, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 1 10:13 am NOTE: As I begin my ninth year writing the John Davis Political Report (30th year as a North Carolina political analyst), it’s important for you
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How the GOP Congress and President Obama became the #1 Problem in America and Made Trump the #1 Solution
January 15, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 1 10:13 am
NOTE: As I begin my ninth year writing the John Davis Political Report (30th year as a North Carolina political analyst), it’s important for you to know that I do not do any work for candidates or partisan groups. My income is solely from this report, speeches and advising political investors on likely winners. My goal is accurate forecasts. I have no professional interest in whether the winners are Republicans or Democrats. Let me know if you need an objective speaker or consultation on a candidate’s potential. Thanks for reading. JND
Lincoln: Get a barrel of Grant’s whiskey for all my generals!
Last year, January 13, 2015, my first report, Misinterpreting the Mandate: Consequences of the Most Common Mistake Political Majorities Make, was about a Gallup study revealing that the most important problem on the minds of American voters for 2014 was “government leadership — including President Obama and the Republicans in Congress.”
One year later, the problem is the same. On January 4, 2016, a new Gallup study concluded that for two consecutive years, the Most Important Problem facing the country is “Government.”
We have lost all faith in the establishment in Washington DC, especially the Republican-led United States Congress. According to Gallup’s December 2015 national survey on Honesty and Ethics in the Professions, members of Congress are the last professional group to be trusted.
- Congress has the worst “Low/Very Low” rating (64%) on honesty and ethics
- Only 8% of Americans give Congress a “High/Very High” honesty/ethics rating
Where did the Republican-led Congress go wrong? They put ideological purity ahead of problem solving. And by failing to get the job done, they became the #1 problem.
They were forewarned. Only 16% of voters in a November 2014 CNN survey said that the new GOP majorities in the Class of 2015-2016 in the U.S. Senate and House were a “mandate for GOP policies.” A solid 74% said the GOP majorities were a “rejection of Democratic policies.”
The survey clearly showed that voters wanted Republicans in Congress and President Obama to cooperate more. Fifty-seven percent (57%) said Obama was not cooperating with the GOP enough. Sixty-eight percent (68%) said the GOP was not cooperating enough with Obama.
It’s no wonder that today’s Congressional “job approval” is a disastrous 13.4% (Real Clear Politics), with President Obama’s “job approval” under water at an anemic 45.7%. They have become the #1 problem facing the country today.
But here’s the rub: you can’t get rid of the U.S. Congress. According to Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report, about 95% of the current members of the U.S. House are in safe districts; about the same percentage of the U.S. Senators are in safe states. Odds are the GOP will keep the majority in the U.S. House. They are slightly favored to hold the majority in the U.S. Senate.
So, what are you going to do? The historic level of early interest in the presidential campaign indicates that voters have concluded that their best hope is a new President who has the negotiating skillset and leadership temperament to get disparate ideological factions in the Congress to work together with the White House to solve problems.
It is my judgement that Americans are not likely to put someone in the Oval Office who is a member of the U.S. House or U.S. Senate. Remember, they are the #1 problem. They put the “dys” in dysfunction by not cooperating within their own caucus to solve the great problems of the day; they lack the leadership skills to build consensus with those with opposing views.
Ultimately, the GOP presidential nominee is more likely to be one of the three governors, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush or John Kasich, all of whom have executive timbre but have struggled to gain momentum thus far, or Donald Trump. Trump may be a renegade Republican billionaire with no government experience, but he has mastered the art of channeling the anger of Americans who see a rigged and dysfunctional government as the number one problem facing the nation.
Trump’s appeal reminds me of why President Lincoln liked General Grant.
Long before Ulysses Grant became the legendary Civil War general, he was a ne’er-do-well with a serious drinking problem. Failed in business. Failed at farming.
At the age of 32, while serving as a Captain in the army, Grant was given an ultimatum to resign or face a court-martial because of his chronic drunkenness on post. He resigned.
Then came the Civil War. Brigadier General Ulysses Grant was so successful in winning battles despite his problem with alcohol that President Lincoln is said to have proclaimed, “Find out what brand of whiskey Grant drinks and send a barrel of it to each one of my generals.”
That’s Donald Trump’s appeal. He may be arrogant and crude, but an ever-growing number of voters believe he will get the job done; solve the nation’s #1 problem: government. Further, Trump has built a global financial empire at a time Americans are looking for someone who can solve the #2 problem: the creation of jobs and wealth in the new world economic order.
For two consecutive years, the #1 problem facing the country is “Government.” Trump’s voters believe he is the #1 solution because, unlike the current Congress or president, he is someone who values problem solving over trivialities like ideological and political correctness.
Someone who understands the art of principled compromise. The art of the deal.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Political Marketability Favors the 2016 Reelection of North Carolina Republican Governor Pat McCrory He has a record, a plan, money, likeability, and urban appeal December 2, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 18 10:13 pm What’s the “politically marketable” reason to change our governor? On Tuesday, December 1, 2015, North Carolina’s Republican Governor Pat McCrory
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Political Marketability Favors the 2016 Reelection of North Carolina Republican Governor Pat McCrory
He has a record, a plan, money, likeability, and urban appeal
December 2, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 18 10:13 pm
What’s the “politically marketable” reason to change our governor?
On Tuesday, December 1, 2015, North Carolina’s Republican Governor Pat McCrory announced his decision to run for a second term. The presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee is Attorney General Roy Cooper. Finding a politically marketable argument for denying Republican McCrory a second term is the greatest challenge facing Democrat Cooper.
Granted, Cooper has the usual litany of liberal complaints against McCrory; complaints well aired by the Moral Mondays protestors. However, the Moral Mondays outrage was met with a near universal shrug and a “pffft” by North Carolinians.
The most significant political value of the Moral Mondays movement is that it galvanized Republicans and Independent conservatives behind McCrory and the GOP leadership in the General Assembly.
The race for governor of North Carolina will not be about Roy Cooper and the Democratic agenda, it will be a referendum on Pat McCrory’s first term. The fact is, the state is well into recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression. And, economic recovery has provided McCrory the means to make many politically marketable improvements.
McCrory’s accomplishments to date are among the five influential factors that in my judgement give him a political marketing advantage at the starting gate of the 2016 race for governor. The five are: 1. Fundraising potential; 2. Record of accomplishment; 3. Visionary plan; 4. Personal likability; 5. Urban crossover appeal.
Fundraising Potential
Money defaults to power. In North Carolina, Republicans have the lion’s share of the state’s political power. They have the Governor (Executive), super majorities in the state Senate and House (Legislative), and majorities on the state Supreme Court and Court of Appeals (Judicial).
Republicans have also taken over hundreds of state boards and commissions, controlling the direction of everything from Acupuncture, Agriculture, Alcohol and Auctioneers to Banking, Transportation, Tobacco, Teachers, Universities, Utilities, Veterinary, Wildlife and the Zoo.
The power and influence of state government Republicans is greatly enhanced by their ten-member advantage in the state’s 13-member delegation to the U.S. House, as well as the two Republican U.S. Senators. All are members of Republican majorities in the U.S. Congress.
Granted, Roy Cooper’s mid-year report to the State Board of Elections shows him with $3.4 million in receipts to only $2.2 for McCrory. But, McCrory was battling the legislature and the news media the first six months of the year. He got a late start filling the till.
Furthermore, a Republican incumbent governor in a Southern state with an improving economy is in a far greater position to parlay his power and influence into a financial advantage than a Democratic challenger.
The loss of standing and competitiveness of the Democratic Party during President Obama’s administration is almost unbelievable. As Adam Edelen, Democratic state auditor of Kentucky who lost reelection last month told the New York Times, “In terms of governors, legislators and constitutional officers, the bench has been eviscerated during his [Obama’s] tenure. It will have very long-term consequences.”
Those consequences will be felt by Democrats in North Carolina, like Roy Cooper, as they struggle to maintain a competitive campaign war chest for their races in 2016.
Record of Accomplishment
After all was said and done during the 2015 budget battles between Governor McCrory and the Republican leaders in the General Assembly; after all of the inane huffing and puffing about McCrory being the “irrelevant,” “Mayor of North Carolina,” McCrory got most of what he wanted. More than enough marketable line items to make his case for a second term.
First and foremost, McCrory’s leadership on the budget endeared him to most Republicans and Independents who lean Republican. Second, and equally important, McCrory’s leadership on the budget gives him plenty of talking points for a strong appeal to undecided Independent voters.
Here are a couple of politically marketable highlights:
- Reduced unemployment; created jobs
- Reduced the personal income tax below most of our neighboring states
- Reduced the corporate income tax rate, on track to be the lowest in the U.S.
- Paid off NC’s $2.5 billion unemployment insurance debt to Federal Government
- Increased the natural disaster reserve fund to over $1 billion
- Initiated transformative changes in use of digital technology in state government
- Launched a $2 billion bond campaign targeting repairs, renovation and expansions for community colleges and universities, along with state parks
- Education items include pay raises for teachers and keeping teacher assistants
It is my judgement that the action on the state budget this year by Governor McCrory and the General Assembly was politically savvy, allowing Republicans to break many of the arrows in the Democratic Party’s quiver that otherwise would have been used against them in 2016.
Important Note: Anything politically marketable that was not taken care of in the budget this year will be taken care of during the 2016 Short Session.
Visionary Plan
Take a look at Governor McCrory’s 25-year transportation infrastructure plan, Mapping Our Future, and you can see the skill he brings to the development of politically marketable state government initiatives. Every division of his administration either has been or will be the subject of long-range planning and reorganization.
In his February 4, 2015 State of the State speech, McCrory outlined his administration’s commitment to the future in five areas:
- Jobs/Economy: “Ensuring everyone who wants a job can find a job.”
- Education: “Ensuring every child/adult obtains skills to be productive citizen.”
- Connectivity: Linking small towns/commerce centers with highways and internet
- Health/Safety: “Improving quality of life and public safety for NC’s families.”
- Government: “Efficiencies in our budget and improving government services.”
On Wednesday, December 2, 2015, McCrory formally kicked off his campaign with a speech in Kernersville at a printing company. Once again, he touted his “five point plan.”
The redundancy and simplicity of McCrory’s “five point plan” for the future is what gives it political value. Most politicians complicate their vision for the future with too much explanation. McCrory has the skillset to transform his visionary passion into a simple list of steps that help him make the case to the average voter that his goals can be achieved. That’s political marketability.
Personal Likeability
Governor McCrory announced his decision to run for a second term by way of a moving video posted on social media. The video, seeking to show empathy with those struggling to make ends meet, opens with McCrory recounting, “Long before I was elected governor, one of the hardest things I ever had to do in my life was to come home after my job was eliminated and tell Ann I didn’t have a job anymore.”
The video also seeks to give voters hope for a brighter tomorrow based on accomplishments to date and plans for the future. It ends with an image of McCrory hugging a child as he says, “I’m running for governor because our comeback story is not over.”
Pat McCrory is as good a retail politician as there is in America. He looks you right in the eye when he talks. His smile is genuine and welcoming. His handshake is firm and confident. His ability to make everyone from all walks of life feel like they have the governor’s ear; that he really cares about what they care about, is one of his greatest strengths.
But his greatest strength is that he really does care. His ability to empathize with those who have walked a more difficult path to their dreams comes from the fact that he has walked that path.
That’s political marketability at its best.
Urban Crossover Appeal
One of the biggest mistakes McCrory’s critics have made is to devalue his 14 years as Mayor of Charlotte. Dealing with political and public policy enemies in a city that is larger than Detroit, Seattle, Denver or Boston prepares you well for political and public policy enemies in Raleigh. Experience in navigating the petty jealousies, the greedy opportunists, the cheats, the egos, the territorial bureaucrats … for seven terms in a county that is larger than the states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, Alaska, Vermont or Wyoming … prepares you well for the petty jealousies, the greedy opportunists, the cheats, the egos, and the territorial bureaucrats in Raleigh.
Granted, the budget is far more complicated at the state level than the city and county levels. And it has taken McCrory two cycles to gain budgetary competence. However, leadership comes from experience in dealing with the human side of politics. And that is where devaluing McCrory’s 14 years as Mayor of Charlotte is a mistake.
Politically, it is also important to respect the value of McCrory’s experience as Mayor of Charlotte for his ability to appeal to urban voters. McCrory understands city issues. He knows that urban quality of life depends on government investment in streets and public transportation; centers for the performing arts and sports arenas; city parks and recreation. Public safety.
North Carolina is fast becoming an urban dominant swing state where metropolitan voters are more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than antigovernment, more socially diverse and tolerant.
Seven terms as Mayor of the City of Charlotte has seasoned Pat McCrory well to lead an urban dominant swing state. He understands urban voters. He is fluent in their language. He has an opportunity unique as a Republican to successfully market his message to the normally Democratic-leaning undecided voters in the fast-growing urban areas of North Carolina.
Conclusion
The race for governor of North Carolina is a referendum on Pat McCrory’s first term. Thanks to an improving economy, McCrory is in a position to make it very difficult for Roy Cooper to find a politically marketable argument for denying him a second term.
If McCrory does seize the upper hand in fundraising, as I expect he will, he will be able to sell his accomplishments and vision for the future and gain an early lead. At that point, all he has to do is pour on the coal and keep the train on the tracks until Election Day, November 2016.
His detractors will be using every available resource to derail McCrory’s campaign train with allegations of legally questionable actions by the governor, his team and contributors. In today’s political environment, all candidates have to become adept at fending off accusations of improprieties throughout the campaign.
Fortunately for McCrory, a 50-page complaint with 400 pages of exhibits filed in January with the State Ethics Commission by the liberal organization Progress N.C. Action was dismissed in November after no probable cause was found that the governor had violated state laws.
If similar allegations against McCrory meet with the same fate, then his fundraising potential, his record of accomplishment, his visionary plan, personal likability and urban crossover appeal will give him a decisive political marketability advantage that virtually assures him a second term as Governor of North Carolina.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Sunday, Nov. 8: Politico Owes Ben Carson an Apology for False Claim Politico had it wrong. A Politico story claiming that Ben Carson admitted to lying about a scholarship to West Point was grossly misleading. I referenced the story in my report last Friday, November 6, 2015, after seeing the “Carson lied about West Point”
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Sunday, Nov. 8: Politico Owes Ben Carson an Apology for False Claim
Politico had it wrong. A Politico story claiming that Ben Carson admitted to lying about a scholarship to West Point was grossly misleading. I referenced the story in my report last Friday, November 6, 2015, after seeing the “Carson lied about West Point” reported by credible sources like Financial Times, CBS News, The Guardian, MSNBC and the Christian Broadcast Network.
Politico has since removed the words “admitted fabricating” from their story. In reference to the story, the Washington Post concluded, “The Politico story seemed to mischaracterize a small but key detail in the way Carson has told the story,” that he never claimed he applied to West Point. CNN Money refers to the incident as “a major black eye for Politico.”
Politico should apologize to Carson for such an irresponsible mischaracterization.
What follows is my revised report.
History Says Trump, Carson and Fiorina are History; No Elective Office or High Military Rank, No White House.
November 8, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 17 REVISED 11:13 am
Trump, Carson and Fiorina are History
On Tuesday, November 10, 2015, beginning at 9 o’clock EST, while you are watching GOP presidential frontrunners Trump, Carson and Fiorina during the Fox Business/Wall Street Journal debate from Milwaukee, remember this fact: only two presidents in United States history won with either no prior experience in public office or high military rank … like Trump, Carson and Fiorina.
The last president with no previous elected-office experience was President Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961). However, he was a five-star general in the U.S. Army who served as Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe during World War II. Eisenhower led the Normandy Invasion and the coalition that defeated Hitler. He was a qualified executive.
In 1928, Republican Herbert Hoover won the presidency despite having no elected-office or military experience, although he had presidential timbre after serving as Secretary of Commerce under Presidents Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge. Hoover, along with President William Howard Taft (1909-1913), are the only two U.S. Presidents with the dual distinctions of having no elected-office experience or high military rank … like Trump, Carson and Fiorina.
Most GOP Contenders will Drop Out by March 15
The following states and territories will make Republican presidential decisions by March 15, 2016, North Carolina’s new primary election day: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Guam, Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, Missouri, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio.
Trump, Carson and Fiorina will likely be out on or before March 15, 2016. Carson will go down first due to a growing realization that he lacks executive credibility and has few defensible solutions for the most important problems facing the nation. Fiorina will soon follow because she will continue to struggle to raise money, grow her base and otherwise demonstrate electability.
Trump will drop out as soon as losses are imminent. If he can’t win it all, he will parlay his presidential notoriety into even greater wealth. The best billionaire ever!
As I concluded in my report on August 19, 2015, Trumped-Up Political Credibility will be Undermined by Sobering State/National Concerns:
Look for Trump to hire every available political operative in the country to swarm the early caucus and primary states to keep the perception going that he is a serious presidential contender. It’s worth hundreds of millions of dollars in free advertising world-wide benefiting his casinos and resorts.
As Trump told Fortune, “It’s very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it.”
Ted Cruz will Inherit the Anti-Establishment Voters
Ted Cruz, the quintessential antiestablishment (Government Shutdown 2013) candidate among the Republican contenders, will likely inherit the Trump/Carson/Fiorina voters. Cruz will combine his surge in popularity among antiestablishment Republicans with his impressive war chest and create an enthusiastic army of evangelical and Tea Party conservatives who will help him take the lead by Super Tuesday, March 1, 2016, and solidify his lead on March 15, 2016.
Cruz is the #1 fundraiser on the latest list (10/16/15) of Republican campaign fundraisers, as opposed to those candidates, like Jeb Bush, who have more money in allied super PACs.
According to OpenSecrets.org, the candidates with the largest campaign war chests are:
- Ted Cruz campaign: $39 million; his Super PACs have raised $27 million
- Ben Carson campaign: $31 million; his Super PACs have raised $7 million
- Jeb Bush campaign: $25 million; his Super PACs have raised $103 million
- Marco Rubio campaign: $16 million; his Super PACs have raised $17 million
I fully expect the Jeb Bush A-team to parlay their $100 million Super PAC into a full recovery for the son and brother of U.S. Presidents. There is simply too much knowledge and too many resources in the Bush corner to rule him out. Bush will likely reemerge as a viable establishment candidate and battle with Ted Cruz all the way to the GOP convention in Cleveland.
Bottom line: only two presidents in United States history won with either no prior experience in public office or high military rank … like Trump, Carson and Fiorina. And that fact is not likely to change in 2016.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Most Consequential 10 Days in Clinton’s Candidacy: Shallow Theater, Naked Partisanship, Institutionalized Incompetence October 23, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 16 3:13 pm “If you’re among the growing number of independent voters drifting away from the two parties—you probably don’t care about the [Benghazi] hearing. You know what you missed: shallow theater, naked partisanship, and
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Most Consequential 10 Days in Clinton’s Candidacy:
Shallow Theater, Naked Partisanship, Institutionalized Incompetence
October 23, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 16 3:13 pm
“If you’re among the growing number of independent voters drifting away from the two parties—you probably don’t care about the [Benghazi] hearing. You know what you missed: shallow theater, naked partisanship, and institutionalized incompetence.” Ron Fournier, National Journal, October 23, 2015
Ten days ago, October 13, 2015, the John Davis Political Report, Clinton Email Controversy Now Fruit of a Poisonous Tree after Republicans Seen Rigging Hearings, stated that Hillary Clinton would win the argument on the Benghazi email controversy during the Democratic presidential debate that evening because most voters believed “U.S. House Republicans rigged the Benghazi hearings to weaken Clinton’s campaign for president.”
Sure enough, when the poll results started coming, a large majority of Democrats agreed that Clinton had won on that and every other issue in the CNN/Facebook-sponsored Democratic presidential debate. For example, CNN’s national survey of registered Democrats who watched the Democratic debate revealed that 62% of the respondents believed Hillary Clinton won the debate; 35% said Bernie Sanders.
The perception that the Benghazi committee was a partisan political assault force was solidified on September 29, 2015, when Republican House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy told Fox News host Sean Hannity, “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.” A foolish statement.
Fast forward to October 22, 2015, immediately after Hillary Clinton’s 11-hour grilling by the House Special Committee on Benghazi; another foolish statement by yet another Republican leader. Rep. Trey Gowdy, the Benghazi committee’s chairman, replying to a reporter, stated that he could not name a single important piece of new information his committee had uncovered about the 2012 terrorist attack on a U.S. compound in Benghazi, Libya.
A good accounting of the exchange between the reporter and Gowdy was written by Alexis Simendinger, Real Clear Politics, Inquiry Does Little to Trip Clinton’s 2016 March.
Key Simendinger Thought: Partisan Aim. “Chairman Trey Gowdy, the Republican inquisitor leading a special House Benghazi panel, had something tougher to swallow. He could not point to anything gleaned by his team that refuted Democrats’ charges that Republicans took aim at the former secretary of state for political reasons.
‘I don’t know that she testified any differently than previous times she testified,’ he blurted out to reporters afterward. The concession by Gowdy — appearing sweaty and exhausted at 9 p.m. — that Clinton spent a long day telling Congress what she’d already told Congress underscored the challenge for Republicans. It was also evidence that preparations by her and committee Democrats to paint the drama as partisan had struck a nerve.”
Ten days ago, Hillary Clinton won the first Democratic presidential debate in great part because the Republican-led Benghazi committee had produced nothing that could be used against her by her Democratic opponents. Despite her victory, she still had high unfavorable numbers.
The same CNN’s national survey of registered Democrats who watched the Democratic debate that showed Clinton as the clear winner, also showed that more Americans had an “Unfavorable” opinion of Hillary Clinton (50%) than “Favorable” (46%).
Now, thanks to Republican overreach during the Benghazi investigations and the unproductive 11-hour Select Committee on Benghazi hearing, next week’s polls will show that more Americans have a “Favorable” than “Unfavorable” view of Hillary Clinton.
On October 13, 2015, Hillary Clinton won the CNN/Facebook Democratic debate. On October 22, 2015, Hillary Clinton “won” the Benghazi hearings. Ten consequential days.
Thanks to Republican leaders like Rep. Kevin McCarthy, House Majority Leader, who admitted that the House Select Committee on Benghazi was created to discredit Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president, and Rep. Trey Gowdy, Chairman of the House Select Committee on Benghazi who admitted that his committee had not produced any new information discrediting Hillary Clinton’s handling of the Benghazi attack, those ten days have been the most consequential of her candidacy.
The consequences of Republican “shallow theater, naked partisanship, and institutionalized incompetence” are a clear path to the nomination and a growing consensus that Hillary Clinton is a tough, seasoned leader with the strength of character to serve as President of the United States.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Clinton Email Controversy Now Fruit of a Poisonous Tree after Republicans Seen Rigging Hearings October 13, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 15 2:13 pm Fruit of a Poisonous Tree Tonight, during the first Democratic presidential debate beginning at 8:30 EST on CNN, what would have been a politically explosive issue regarding the use of a
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Clinton Email Controversy Now Fruit of a Poisonous Tree after Republicans Seen Rigging Hearings
October 13, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 15 2:13 pm
Fruit of a Poisonous Tree
Tonight, during the first Democratic presidential debate beginning at 8:30 EST on CNN, what would have been a politically explosive issue regarding the use of a private email server by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be defused by the perception that U.S. House Republicans rigged the Benghazi hearings to weaken Clinton’s campaign for president.
In politics, perceptions are the only reality.
Tonight, during the debate sponsored by CNN and Facebook, Clinton will win the argument on the email controversy, saying she has taken responsibility for her decision to use a personal account, that the use of a private email account was allowed under State Department rules, that nothing she sent or received was marked classified, and that she provided all of her work-related emails to the State Department.
She will win because the Republican-led Special Committee on Benghazi obtained the email controversy under false pretense. The fruit of a poisonous tree.
The committee was supposed to be investigating the terrorist attack on a U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya in 2012 during which our ambassador and three other Americans were killed. And, up until Tuesday, September 29, 2015, only Democrats suggested that the Benghazi committee was a partisan political assault force.
However, on that September day, Republican House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, in line to succeed John Boehner as Speaker of the House, told Fox News host Sean Hannity, “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.”
The integrity of the Benghazi committee was shattered by McCarthy’s foolish statement implying partisan political intent behind the panel’s investigations. He poisoned the tree, and along with it he tainted the fruit of the tree, Hillary Clinton’s private email server controversy.
In 1961, the United States Supreme Court ruled in Mapp v. State of Ohio that incriminating evidence obtained by way of an illegal search could not be used in state courts. That’s analogous to what’s happened here … in the court of public opinion.
In the court of public opinion, evidence of Hillary Clinton’s potentially incriminating use of a private email server as U.S. Secretary of State cannot be used against her politically because it was obtained under false pretense by a committee perceived to have an ulterior partisan motive.
In politics, perceptions are the only reality.
Republican Staff Whistle Blower Fuels Perception of Political Aim
As if having the Majority Leader of your caucus discredit your committee’s work is not enough, now comes a story in the October 11, 2015, The New York Times, in which a former Republican staff investigator for the Benghazi committee, Maj. Bradley Podliska, alleges that the committee was engaged in “a partisan investigation” targeting Hillary Clinton.
Maj. Bradley Podliska, who also says that half of the committee staff was “surfing the Web all day long,” was fired by the committee in June of this year. A disgruntled employee? Obviously.
However, we are dealing in perceptions here. Podliska’s accusations undeniably add fuel to the flaming perception that the Benghazi Committee was targeting Clinton for political ends.
Clinton is scheduled to testify before the House Select Committee on Benghazi next Thursday, October 22. Thanks to a well-founded perception that the committee is on a witch-hunt, it’s the committee, not Hillary Clinton, who will be on the hottest of the seats.
Republican Overreach Key to Clinton’s Aspirations
On August 11, 2015, I wrote the following in the John Davis Political Report:
“She [Hillary Clinton] will survive all scandalous allegations for the same reason her husband survived impeachment relating to the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal: Republican overreach.”
On December 20, 1998, the day after the Articles of Impeachment were passed by a Republican-led U.S. House, Democratic President Bill Clinton’s approval rating jumped 10 points to 73%, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Thanks to Republican overreach, Clinton’s approval rating soared to an all-time high while the favorable view of the GOP fell ten points.
That’s what is about to happen in 2016. Republican candidates for president piling on Hillary Clinton with vindictive hyperbole; fourteen Republican candidates, 13 of whom are men.
Tonight, during the first Democratic presidential debate beginning at 8:30 EST on CNN, Hillary Clinton will win the argument on the email server controversy because the Republican-led Benghazi committee is perceived to have rigged congressional hearings for political gain.
In politics, perceptions are the only reality.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
