The worst thing that could happen to North Carolina’s right-wing economic hardliners on the eve of a presidential election year is for the Republican Party to be brimming with accomplishment at a time when the economy is expanding at a record pace. You can’t start a revolution when the news is good.
NC Tea Party and Democrats Stymied by Republican Successes and Signs of Sustained Economic Recovery
March 17, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 4 3:13 pm
Good News is Bad News for Revolutionaries
The worst thing that could happen to North Carolina’s right-wing economic hardliners on the eve of a presidential election year is for the Republican Party to be brimming with accomplishment at a time when the economy is expanding at a record pace. You can’t start a revolution when the news is good.
On March 11, 2015, John Connaughton, UNC Charlotte economist, told Charlotte business leaders that the U.S. economy has expanded for 68 consecutive months, and that by this summer we will be enjoying the fifth longest period of economic expansion since 1854. Here in North Carolina:
- 2015 will be the first year since 2006 that the state’s economy will grow by at least 3%
- North Carolina payrolls increased by 2.8% in 2014, the best year since the 1990s
- Unemployment in North Carolina is down to 5.5%, fully half of the 11% + rates seen five years ago at the height of the Great Recession
Too much good news. The Dow is setting record highs, passing the 18,000 mark this year for the first time ever. The share price of Domino’s Pizza has soared from $13 in 2010 to over $100 today! And, as if a growing economy is not bad enough news for Tea Party revolutionaries, now comes reports in USA Today, foretelling gas prices “below $2 somewhere between May and October.”
How can you start a revolution with all this good economic news!
Monopolistic Republicans Bloating Bureaucracies
Revolutions start when monopolistic government elites bankrupt the country with wars and bloated bureaucracies and then demand higher taxes from powerless citizens struggling to make ends meet.
In 2008, the monopolistic government elites who were bankrupting the country by fighting wars and bloating bureaucracies were Republicans. Two unpopular wars. Record earmarks. A $700 billion bank bailout. Wall Street meltdown. Housing value down $6 trillion. Jobs lost totaled 4.4 million.
That year, 2008, a revolutionary leader named Barack Obama led the overthrow of those monopolistic, bureaucracy-bloating Republicans. The GOP lost the White House and the Congress. They lost the Governor’s mansion and the General Assembly in North Carolina.
A bad economy in the hands of Republicans was a perfect scenario for a Democratic revolution.
Monopolistic Democrats Bloating Bureaucracies
In 2010, Americans were still facing the worst recession since the Great Depression. Joblessness was at levels not seen since the 1930s. We were still paying for two unpopular wars with $1 trillion annual budget deficits while facing ongoing crises in major economic sectors like banking, housing and real estate, along with automobile manufacturing. We were $13 trillion in debt.
That year, 2010, a revolutionary group named the Tea Party led the overthrow of those monopolistic and bureaucracy-bloating Democrats; those who had made healthcare reform their priority despite the greater concerns among the citizenry about jobs and the economy.
Republicans exploited the ideal environment for a revolt of the masses: a bad economy in the hands of a Democratic president and a Democratic congress. They won the majority in the U.S. House. They won super majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House of Representatives.
Signs of Economic Recovery and Republican Successes
In 2012, the economy began to show signs of sustained recovery. Slowly but surely the banks had regained strength, as did the automobile industry. Slowly but surely the percentage of unemployed started to go down. The value of housing and real estate rose. The value of stocks rose dramatically.
In North Carolina, a study by the Charlotte Observer revealed that 43 of the 50 top publicly traded companies by revenue finished the year 2012 with higher stock values. It happened again in 2013; higher year-end stock values for North Carolina’s top publicly traded companies. It happened again in 2014.
As the economy improved, Tea Party leaders looked behind them and saw fewer angry followers. The nation was tired of partisan discord and uncompromising economic hardliners. In late 2013, ideas like shutting down the federal government met with universal disfavor, even among most Republicans.
What Republicans wanted most was successes; legislative successes. Here in North Carolina, conservative legislative successes began to pile up. Legislative and congressional districts were remapped to the GOP’s advantage while election laws were changed to the Democrats’ disadvantage. No more straight ticket voting. No more public financing. Fewer days for early voting. Voter IDs.
Now, in 2015, Republicans in the General Assembly are adding to their list of election law reforms at the expense of Democrats with legislation that will change the way cities like Greensboro and counties like Wake elect their city council members and county commissioners.
Conservatives have seen legislative accomplishments in the last four years that they could only but dream of before the Tea Party revolution of 2010. Fracking. Firearms. Medicaid. Charter schools. Regulations. Taxes. Abortion. Teachers union. Consolidation. Reorganization. Environmental laws.
But too much good news is bad news for revolutionaries. Good economic news and a growing list of Republican legislative successes means a greater likelihood that the GOP will be united in 2016.
A united GOP is even worse news for North Carolina Democrats.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
February 6, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 2 9:13 am CORRECTION – NC Sheriffs: I stated incorrectly in the last report that Republicans had a majority of the Sheriffs in North Carolina. In fact, 52 of our Sheriffs are Democrats; 48 are Republicans. In 2014, the party affiliation of newly elected Sheriffs switched in 10
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February 6, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 2 9:13 am
CORRECTION – NC Sheriffs: I stated incorrectly in the last report that Republicans had a majority of the Sheriffs in North Carolina. In fact, 52 of our Sheriffs are Democrats; 48 are Republicans. In 2014, the party affiliation of newly elected Sheriffs switched in 10 counties. Democrats picked up two offices held by Republicans; Republicans picked up eight held by Democrats.
COMING NEXT WEEK: Wednesday’s report will handicap the 2016 race between Republican Governor Pat McCrory and presumptive Democratic nominee Attorney General Roy Cooper. That report will be followed by an assessment of U.S. Senator Richard Burr’s likelihood of winning in 2016.
What’s most important to political recovery?
On Saturday, February 7, 2015, the State Executive Committee of the North Carolina Democratic Party will meet in Pittsboro. Their challenge is to decide how to restructure, reorganize and create a new vision needed to recover their political standing in North Carolina. There is no decision more critical to that end than the selection of a State Party Chair who can raise money.
A political party without money is one that cannot get its message out; cannot mobilize its base voters. More importantly, a political party without money is one that lacks the resources to restructure, reorganize and create a new vision for the political challenges of the 21st Century.
The challenges facing North Carolina Democrats are too great for ideological bickering. Just since 2010, Democrats have lost majorities in both chambers of the legislature, lost the Governor’s office, lost both U.S. Senate seats, and failed to carry the state for Obama in 2012.
They are not alone. Throughout the South, Democrats are facing the same long and arduous trek back to the state halls of political power.
- 11 of the 13 Southern states have Republican governors (Democrats in KY and VA)
- Republican majorities in 25 of 26 Southern legislative chambers (KY House is Dem)
- Both U.S. Senators are Republican in all Southern states except FL and VA
- There are 111 Republican U.S. House members from the South; 38 Democrats
Because the challenges facing North Carolina Democrats are of epic proportions, the choice of State Party Chair is critical. And 21st Century politics requires a chair who can raise money.
$899 million reasons why Democrats need a fundraiser
If you doubt the importance of money in politics, consider the fact that the Koch brothers plan to invest $889 million through independent organizations focused on the campaigns of 2016. The Koch brothers do not trust political parties to adequately invest in technology, so they invest in technology themselves. They do not trust political parties to mount an effective ground game, so they organize their own ground game.
The Koch brothers hire their own consultants; the best in the business. They conduct their own opposition research and produce their own ads.
So how much is $889 million in the scheme of things? It’s about $250 million more than the combined total spent in 2012 by the Republican National Committee, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee and the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee … combined.
Like it or not, we live in the Citizens United Supreme Court era in which money is indisputably the most important political commodity.
Who will major Democratic donors give the big checks to?
Assuming that there are a number of wealthy Democrats around the state who are ready and willing to write the big checks to help the state party get the party back on its feet, who do they give the big checks to? That’s the critical problem that must be solved on Saturday in Pittsboro.
They did not trust David Parker, NCDP Chair from January 2011 to February 2013. They did not trust Randy Voller, the current State Party Chair who struggled to keep the lights on. They certainly will not trust a 600+ member State Executive Committee spitting at each other over whether the ideological goals of the party are more important than winning campaigns.
The North Carolina Democratic Party needs a State Executive Committee of 60, not 600. The first vote of that 60-member State Executive Committee should be the selection of a 6-member management team tasked with authority to raise seed money and oversee the development of a long-range plan for restructuring and reorganizing the North Carolina Democratic Party into a political fighting force.
On Saturday, February 7, 2015, the State Executive Committee of the North Carolina Democratic Party will meet in Pittsboro. There is no decision more critical to their political recovery than the selection of a State Party Chair who can raise money.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
January 13, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 1 12:13 pm “Unfortunately, Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them.” U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat-NY, National Press Club, 11, 25, 2014 Fix Yourself When the second highest ranking Democrat in the U.S. Senate says, “We blew it,” I sit up and take notice. Such was the
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January 13, 2015 Vol. VIII, No. 1 12:13 pm
“Unfortunately, Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them.” U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat-NY, National Press Club, 11, 25, 2014
Fix Yourself
When the second highest ranking Democrat in the U.S. Senate says, “We blew it,” I sit up and take notice. Such was the case on November 25, 2014, when U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, said, “Unfortunately, Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them in electing Obama and the Democratic Congress in 2008 amid a recession. We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem — healthcare reform.”
For emphasis: “We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem.”
The greatest threat to Republican political potential in 2016, both in Raleigh and Washington DC, is a misinterpretation by congressional and legislative majorities of the 2014 voter mandate.
So, what was the voter mandate of 2014?
According to a January 2, 2015 Gallup survey, based on a 12,000-sample average from last year’s polls, the most important problem on the minds of 2014 voters was “government leadership — including Pres. Obama, the Republicans in Congress and general political conflict.” But what about the Economy, Unemployment/Jobs and Healthcare? They came in second, third and fourth respectively to Government/Congress/Politicians on the most important problems list for 2014.
That finding is consistent with a September 2014 Gallup poll in which voters were asked what they wanted their representative in Congress to do when the Congress begins the new session in January. Answer: fix yourself.
Consequences of Misinterpreting the Mandate
So, what are the consequences of Sen. Schumer’s conclusion: “We took their mandate and put all our focus on the wrong problem.” Two politically devastating mid-term election cycles.
- Largest GOP majority in the U.S. House since 1928 (247 Republican; 188 Democrats)
- GOP regaining the majority in the U.S. Senate after losing it to Democrats in 2006
- Republican governors: 31; Democratic governors: 18; (1 Independent)
- Highest number of legislative seats in the 50 states since 1920
- Republican legislative-majority chambers in the 13 southern states: 25 of 26
- Republican majorities in North Carolina House and Senate
Sen. Chuck Schumer was right. Pres. Obama and Democratic majorities in the U.S. Senate and House put their priorities ahead of the public’s priorities during the worst recession since the Great Depression. On March 21, 2010, Pres. Obama told an Indonesian TV interviewer, “The most important domestic priority [Obamacare] is going to be voted on this week.”
Obama actually believed that Obamacare was a more important domestic priority than the housing and real estate crises, foreclosures in the loss of housing value; more important than the banking crisis and a nearly bankrupt automobile industry; more important than 1930s unemployment numbers; more important than $1 trillion budget deficit in the $13 trillion per sovereign debt.
Democrats had all of the power in Washington DC and Raleigh, North Carolina leading up to the first midterm elections of the Obama administration in 2010. There was a Democrat in the White House and the Governor’s mansion. There were Democratic majorities in the Congress in the state legislature. Now, after the second midterm elections of the Obama administration, Democrats are powerless in Washington, DC and Raleigh, North Carolina.
That’s the consequences of misinterpreting the voter’s mandate.
Will Republicans Misinterpret the Mandate of 2014?
Tomorrow, January 14, 2015, the North Carolina General Assembly will begin its work under the guidance of Republican super majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House of Representatives. Will they take the mandate of 2014 and put their focus on the wrong problem?
What is the mandate of 2014? Certainly it is a Republican friendly mandate in light of the GOP rout at all levels of political leadership in the state and nation. Wrong.
Last fall, CNN conducted a national survey to find out what voters were thinking when they chose to give Republicans most of the political power in the country. The survey, conducted from November 21-23, 2014, asked the following question, Were Republican victories in the U.S. Senate and House races in 2014 a mandate for Republican policies or a rejection of Democratic policies. Answers: Rejection of Democrats 74%; Mandate for Republicans 16%.
The greatest threat to Republican political potential in 2016, both in Raleigh and Washington DC, is a misinterpretation of the 2014 voter mandate. The mandate was to put the priorities of the people ahead of the priorities of political parties.
Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them. That’s why they have no power today. What will Republicans do with the opportunity the people have given them?
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Thank You and Happy New Year! December 30, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 30 12:13 pm Thank you so much for reading my report this year! There is no greater reward for a political writer than to be read by a balance of influential readers from all persuasions. My goal has always been to
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Thank You and Happy New Year!
December 30, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 30 12:13 pm
Thank you so much for reading my report this year! There is no greater reward for a political writer than to be read by a balance of influential readers from all persuasions.
My goal has always been to provide a reliable analysis of political trends along with accurate forecasts of likely winners. In order to achieve that goal, I cannot be an advocate. If I were an advocate, my forecasts would be wrong half the time.
There are many sources of politically biased reporting, especially among advocacy news organizations. I urge you to read or listen to all of them. Biased perspectives on the status of campaigns are very helpful in sizing up competing arguments on who is likely to prevail in a race.
But if you do not have time to read or listen to all competing sources of political insight, please know that that is what I do every day throughout the year.
As you know from following my reports in 2014, since January I have argued that mid-term election year dynamics (referendum on the White House; Democratic turnout down), coupled with structural advantages for Republicans (like the fact that Democrats were defending more U.S. Senate seats, 6 in states that Romney carried by 14 points!) pointed to a likely upset win by North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis over North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan.
There are three other reasons I saw the upset coming:
- Republicans knew that they were their own worst enemy in 2012 and were determined from early 2013 on to correct those mistakes;
- US. Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision in 2010 eliminated the fundraising advantage incumbent Kay Hagan should have had by allowing pro-Tillis outside groups to come into North Carolina with unlimited funding;
- Hagan and her camp of advisors underestimated Tillis and his camp of advisors.
Who Will Lead North Carolina Democrats to Political Recovery?
I suspect that after major losses by North Carolina Democrats in 2010 (state Senate and House), 2012 (Governor) and 2014 (everything else), they will not be making the same mistakes again. Certainly after three devastating elections in a row they see the value of a self-assessment similar to what the GOP did to correct their weaknesses after squandering political opportunities.
In 2016, many important structural advantages will shift to the Democrats. They will have half as many U.S. Senate seats to defend as Republicans; no seats in states carried by Romney. Plus, the Democratic constituencies who were slack in 2014 will likely be going back to the polls in much higher numbers during the presidential election year.
Of course, taking advantage of opportunities comes down to leadership and execution. There is a leadership vacuum in the North Carolina Democratic Party. That vacuum must be filled by someone who can raise a substantial amount of money, lead a self-assessment, and rally the faithful behind a well-crafted plan with the singular goal of political recovery.
Who will lead North Carolina Democrats to political recovery?
Throughout 2015 and 2016, I will be reporting to you what I see as the major influences on our state’s politics. We will be a battleground state in both the presidential and the U.S. Senate race, which means we will attract the kind of attention and money we saw in 2014.
In addition to President in 2016, we will have elections for Governor, Council of State, Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, all members of the U.S. House, and all members of the General Assembly.
As always, I will be in the thick of it; reporting to you what I see.
My goal, as always, will be to provide you with a reliable analysis of political trends along with accurate forecasts of likely winners.
Thanks again for reading my report.
May you have the happiest and most prosperous year ever!
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
November 24, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 29 2:13 pm I had a secret forecasting advantage on January 10, 2014, when I titled the John Davis Political Report, Vol. VII, No. 2, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan. A secret advantage a year in the making.
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November 24, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 29 2:13 pm
I had a secret forecasting advantage on January 10, 2014, when I titled the John Davis Political Report, Vol. VII, No. 2, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan. A secret advantage a year in the making.
A forecasting advantage so significant that during the ten months of writing dozens of political reports during 2014 about what became the most expensive U.S. Senate race in American history, I never wavered in my prediction that Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, would win an upset victory over U.S. Senator Kay Hagan, a Democrat.
The secret to my forecasting advantage began on January 5, 2013, the day Republican Pat McCrory was sworn in as the 74th Governor of North Carolina.
I was sitting in my den by the fire watching live television coverage of the historic swearing-in ceremony taking place in the Senate Chamber of the Old State Capitol in Raleigh. Historic because not since the post-Civil War era had North Carolina state government been led by a Republican Governor, a Republican President Pro Tempore of the Senate presiding over a Republican majority, and a Republican Speaker of the House presiding over a Republican majority … all at the same time.
Although this was a first-in-a-lifetime event worthy of my undivided attention, I was distracted by concerns over what I would write about in 2013. After all, I had regular readers of my political report who were counting on something of value about North Carolina politics every two weeks.
Then, from out of the pomp and circumstance of the swearing-in, I had an epiphany. It was the question, I wonder how long Republicans will be the dominant political party in North Carolina? What would it take for them to hold sway over state government like the Democrats before them?
No sooner had the question of Republican political longevity entered my mind, than the obvious counter question emerged. What would it take for Democrats to recover politically and regain their standing as the dominant political party in North Carolina?
Now I knew what I would write about in 2013.
Little did I know in January 2013, that a year-long quest for answers to those two questions would give me a secret advantage in forecasting North Carolina’s 2014 race for U.S. Senate.
Keys to Political Longevity for North Carolina Republicans
On Friday, January 11, 2013, I began a 10-part series titled Keys to Political Longevity for North Carolina Republicans, a series that ended on May 8, 2013.
For four months, I interviewed dozens of the most influential political minds in the state on the topic of what it would take for Republicans to keep their power over state government.
My interviews included former Republican elected officials and consultants, political reporters and university professors of political science. I talked to Republican financial backers, former Republican administration heads, Republican pollsters and North Carolina Republican Party leaders.
I began the series with a caution: Always remember that you are vulnerable.
A caution about the danger of the seduction of exceptionalism.
After the series on the Keys to Republican Political Longevity, I began a 10-part series titled, Keys to Political Recovery for North Carolina Democrats.
For four months, from June 6, 2013 to October 7, 2013, I interviewed dozens of influential Democrats on the topic of what it would take for North Carolina Democrats to reestablish their standing as a powerhouse in North Carolina politics.
My interviews included a former Democratic governor, leading Democratic consultants and former elected officials, political reporters and university professors of political science. I talked to Democratic financial backers, Democratic pollsters and leaders of the state Democratic Party.
I began the 10-part series with a report on the importance of reestablishing ideological balance in the Democratic legislative caucuses in order to restore the party’s mutually beneficial and long-standing relationship with the state’s business community.
I ended the series with a caution: Always remember that you are vulnerable.
A caution about the danger of the seduction of exceptionalism.
Secret Measurements: Ten for Hagan; Ten for Tillis
I had a secret forecasting advantage on January 10, 2014, when I titled the second John Davis Political Report of the year, Vol. VII, No. 2, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan.
I also used that secret advantage on January 3, 2014, when I wrote the following in the first John Davis Political Report of the year, Vol. VII, No. 1, North Carolina’s 2014 Political Preview:
Imagine waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC. If you are a member of the GOP, or if you prefer conservative solutions to problems, nothing could be finer. If you are a Democrat … ummmm, need I say more?
It happened.
A year of interviewing the most influential members of the Republican and Democratic parties in North Carolina during 2013 had given me a unique advantage in forecasting the likely winner in the Hagan-Tillis race in 2014.
I had secret measurements. Ten for Hagan. Ten for Tillis.
My secret measurements for the state Democratic Party told me that they were structurally incapable of helping Kay Hagan win her campaign for U.S. Senate. That they were so divided and disorganized that they would ultimately be her undoing.
I had a secret measurement that led me to the conclusion that Democrats were being led into 21st Century political combat by old generals fighting the last war. A secret measurement that helped me see that Hagan was relying on backward-looking stale, 20th century issues rather than forward-looking dynamic issues that would inspire voters with great possibilities.
I also had a secret measurement to determine if Republicans were showing signs of self-destruction. Danger signals of a sense of invulnerability. I found a well-organized, well-led army taking nothing for granted.
The eight months of interviewing Republican and Democrat leaders in North Carolina in 2013 gave me the confidence to call the race for a Tillis upset on January 10, 2014.
Who Wins the Most Expensive U.S. Senate Race on a Level Battlefield?
North Carolina’s 2014 U.S. Senate race between Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican Tom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House, was the most expensive in history. Over $130 million was spent by the candidates and their allies, with $100 million spent independently by national groups totally out of reach of the candidates and their campaign professionals.
Yet the campaign began and ended in a virtual tie. The brightest of political operatives could not seize a sure lead. The smartest pundits doubted their own judgment as to the likely outcome.
Thom Tillis was number one on the list of the “Most Attacked” U.S. Senate candidates by outside groups, with $35,569,285 spent on negative TV ads. Ads that said he was too conservative; that as leader of the North Carolina House he was responsible for cutting $500 million out of the state’s education budget. Ads that said he cut Planned Parenthood; that he was no friend of women.
Kay Hagan was also on the list of the “Most Attacked” candidates by outside groups in 2014, with $20,916,901 spent on negative TV ads. Ads that said she was too liberal; that she voted with President Obama 95% of the time. The deciding vote on Obamacare. That she skipped out on an Armed Services Committee meeting and went to a fundraiser in New York in the middle of national concern about ISIS and radical Islamic terrorism becoming a threat here at home.
Despite it all, after $130 million was spent, the race was tied on the eve of Election Day. Tied because in North Carolina, the number of voters likely to vote Republican or Democratic is tied.
Tied because the number of white urban moderates, African-Americans, single women, independents, young people and emerging minorities inclined to vote Democratic is equal to the number of white suburban and rural conservatives, married women, independents, older people and emerging minorities inclined to vote Republican.
North Carolina is tied just like the nation is tied. That’s why the lessons learned from the Hagan-Tillis U.S. Senate race inform both state and national Democrats and Republicans about the importance of new partisan branding for 21st Century American politics. About the importance of 21st Century battles being led by forward-thinking 21st Century generals.
About the danger of the seduction of exceptionalism.
– End –
May You Have the Happiest of Thanksgiving Holidays!
And, Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
November 4, 2014 Election Results a GOP Wave; Final Polls Tell North Carolina U.S. Senate Story November 5, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 28 7:13 am Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned
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November 4, 2014 Election Results a GOP Wave; Final Polls Tell North Carolina U.S. Senate Story
November 5, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 28 7:13 am
Bottom Line: Big night for Republicans in the state and nation, with the driving force in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race being the fact that more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
- North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan by 48,501 votes out of a midterm election record turnout of 2,891,363 voters. He will serve in a solid 53-seat Republican majority in the U.S Senate, likely headed by Mitch McConnell, the current Senate Minority Leader.
- Tillis won despite $35,569,285 spent by outside groups on attack ads against him, the most spent against any U.S. Senate candidate in the country in the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country, with $111 million accounted for as of Election Day.
- Hagan raised $22,945,496 to Tillis’ $9,055,347.
- North Carolina’s 13-member delegation to the US House of Representatives will have 10 Republicans and three Democrats. All incumbents won easily, as did newcomers Alma Adams, a Democrat in Democrat Mel Watt’s seat, and David Rouzer, a Republican in Democrat Mike McIntyre’s seat (the one-seat pick up for the GOP). US House 250 Republicans; 185 Democrats.
- North Carolina’s 50-member Senate will have a 34-member Republican super majority, a gain of one, with Democrat Gene McLaurin losing to challenger Tom McInnis. All incumbent Senate Republicans won reelection, and all Open GOP seats were won by Republicans. There will be a 16-member Democratic minority in the state Senate.
- North Carolina’s 120-member House will have 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Both chambers maintained their Republican super majorities.
- North Carolina’s 7-member Supreme Court will be led by Chief Justice Mark Martin, a Republican, who will preside over a 4-3 Republican majority. Sam Ervin, a Democrat, defeated Republican Bob Hunter. Justices Robin Hudson and Cheri Beasley, both Democrats, fended off strong Republican challenges.
- North Carolina’s 15-member Court of Appeals will have a Republican majority thanks to former Judge John Tyson’s victory in the 19-candidate race for Democrat Chief Judge John Martin’s seat. Lucy Inman, a Democrat, is the other newcomer to the court (Democrat Bob Hunter is retiring). Judge Mark Davis, a Democrat, won another term handily. Republican Judge Donna Stroud ran unopposed.
Hagan too close to Obama was worse than Tillis being too conservative
Real Clear Politics average on November 3, election eve, showed Hagan up by only 1 point (44.1% to Tillis’ 43%), with the polling average trending to Tillis’ favor. There were two new polls added to the North Carolina mix on the Real Clear Politics site before Election Day: Fox News 10/28-10/31; CNN 10/27-10/30. The Fox poll showed Hagan up by one point (Hagan 43%; Tillis 42%). The CNN poll shows Hagan up by two points (48%/46%).
The new Fox News poll showed that Tillis supporters who were “certain” about their vote had gone up 11 points since mid-September to 92% (up from 81%); Hagan’s “certain” supporters is 88%, up 7 points since mid-September. That suggests to me that conservative hardliners who backed someone else in the GOP primary had gotten over their reluctance to support Tillis.
Another significant comparison is the question, “Is Tillis too conservative” (35%), as compared to the question, “Does Hagan agree with Obama too much” (48%). More voters are concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than are concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
Select results of the “Does Hagan agree with Obama too much” question by demographics:
- Independent voters: 50% say Too much with Obama; 29% say About right.
- Women voters: 44% say Too much with Obama; 40% say About right.
- White voters: 57% say Too much with Obama; 29% say About right.
Select results of the “Is Tillis too conservative” question by demographics:
- Independent voters are split (34% Tillis is Too conservative; 32% About right)
- Women voters (36% Tillis is Too conservative; 34% About right)
- White voters (33% Tillis is Too conservative; 45% About right)
The new CNN poll showed each candidates’ voter strongholds by gender & white voters:
- Tillis up 12 points among Men (53%/41%)
- Hagan up 16 points among Women (55%/39%)
- Tillis up 26 points among White voters (60%/34%)
- Tillis up 40 points among White men (67%/27%)
- Tillis up 9 points among White women (51%/42%)
Other findings from the CNN survey that clarify each candidates’ greatest potential:
- Hagan up 22 points among Urban voters (59%/37%)
- Tillis up 6 points among Suburban voters; 5 points among Rural voters
- Hagan up 42 points among Moderates (67%/25%)
- Tillis up 59 points among Conservatives (77%/18%)
- Tillis up 3 points among Independent voters (45%/42%)
In the final analysis, more voters were concerned about Hagan’s voting record with Obama than those who were concerned about Tillis’ conservatism.
I am honored that you read my report.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
Democrats’ $32 Million Attack Backfires in North Carolina, Aiding Tillis’ Rise and Abetting Hagan’s Fall October 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 27 8:13 am Tillis Tops List as Most Attacked U.S. Senate Candidate: Recent national news stories have reported that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and Republican
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Democrats’ $32 Million Attack Backfires in North Carolina, Aiding Tillis’ Rise and Abetting Hagan’s Fall
October 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 27 8:13 am
Tillis Tops List as Most Attacked U.S. Senate Candidate: Recent national news stories have reported that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House Thom Tillis is likely to top the list of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in 2014, with spending in excess of $100 million.
Two-thirds of that $100 million is being spent by national independent groups, with 80% going to negative attack ads. A Washington Post analysis of who is “bearing the brunt of all of that negativity” shows that no candidate in America has had more money spent against them on negative ads than Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
A whopping $32 million has been spent on negative attack ads alone against Tillis.
Unfortunately for Hagan and North Carolina Democrats, the negative barrage of TV ads against Tillis has had two unintended consequences: Hagan’s five-point lead is down to zero; Hagan’s job disapproval is up five points.
Democratic Attack Aiding Tillis’ Rise, Abetting Hagan’s Fall
The latest North Carolina polls clearly show that the Democrats’ $32 million attack has backfired, aiding Thom Tillis’ rise in the polls and abetting Hagan’s fall.
The latest NBC News/Marist North Carolina poll, released October 26, shows a tie between Hagan and Tillis at 43% each among likely voters. Here are other key findings:
- Hagan and Tillis are tied at 43% each, down from Hagan’s 44% to 40% in early October.
- Tillis leads Hagan among independents likely to vote.
- Hagan leads among women by 10 points; Tillis among men by 11 points.
- Hagan has a higher negative rating (48% unfavorable) than Tillis (44% unfavorable)
Perhaps the most disconcerting fact for the Hagan camp in the NBC news/Marist North Carolina poll is that education, the #1 topic of attacks against Tillis, is not among the top concerns among North Carolina likely voters in deciding their vote for Congress. The most important concerns are jobs and the economy at 20%, followed by health care (16%) and breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington (15%).
The NBC News/Marist North Carolina results are mirrored in the new High Point University poll released on October 27, 2014. Here are the key findings:
- Hagan in Tillis are tied at 44% each among likely voters.
- Job performance disapproval for Pres. Obama is 55%; Hagan’s job performance disapproval is 52%, and Tillis’ job disapproval is 50%.
- North Carolina likely voters prefer Republicans in congressional races 48% to 43%
Overall, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Hagan’s lead has been cut to +1 point: 43.6% Hagan; 42.6% Tillis. At the beginning of October, before the record-breaking attack on Tillis, Hagan’s Real Clear Politics polling average lead was +4.2%.
Obama’s Disapproval at 56%; Voters want Republicans to Run Country
Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the White House, and this one has lousy job approval numbers on the year’s most important issues like the economy and the threat of ISIS.
In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted October 23-26, seven in 10 Americans have a negative view of the economy and see the country on the wrong track.
- Six in 10 have little or no trust in the federal government to do what’s right.
- 63% of likely voters think government’s ability to solve problems has gotten worse.
- Obama’s job approval is 43%; disapproval among likely voters is 56%.
- There is a 42% to 37% advantage to Republicans for handling the country’s problems.
Midterm elections are also years in which turnout plummets among the traditional Democratic constituencies like African-Americans, young voters and single women. The results of the new ABC news/Washington Post poll indicate a likelihood that this dynamic will continue.
- Although women prefer Democratic congressional candidates by 5-points, men prefer Republican congressional candidates by 17 points.
- Democrats always enjoy a substantial lead among college educated white women. This year, according to the ABC news/Washington Post survey, they are only running even.
- Democrats are losing 57% of white women who lack a college degree.
- Democrats are losing 66% of white men.
The ABC news/Washington Post survey also shows that Republican congressional candidates are preferred among independent voters by 17 points. That’s huge. Although Democrats have a 12-point advantage among moderates, Republicans have a 61 point advantage among conservatives, “who rival moderates in their share of likely voters.”
As to campaign spending, it appears that when all is said and done both camps will have spent a roughly equal amount of the $100+ million invested in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, with two thirds coming from outside independent sources.
As to the ground game, North Carolina Republicans claim to have reached the level of proficiency that gave the Democrats the winning edge in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. If that is true, they will neutralize the Democrats operational advantage and will win most of the close races … including the U.S. Senate race.
We will not know until next Tuesday night whether the North Carolina GOP and their allies like Americans for Prosperity have matched the Democrats’ turnout operation. What we do know today is that the $32 million spent by Democrats on negative attack ads against Tillis has cut Hagan’s five-point lead down to zero, and has driven Hagan’s job disapproval up five points.
Clearly, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is trending in Thom Tillis’ favor.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Difficult Week for Democrats as Disaffected Women and Blacks Drive Favorability Down to 1984 Lows October 17, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 26 10:13 am Women and Blacks Down on Democratic Party: According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 9-12, 2014, the Democratic Party has the worst Favorable (39%) to Unfavorable (51%)
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Difficult Week for Democrats as Disaffected Women and Blacks Drive Favorability Down to 1984 Lows
October 17, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 26 10:13 am
Women and Blacks Down on Democratic Party: According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 9-12, 2014, the Democratic Party has the worst Favorable (39%) to Unfavorable (51%) impression among Americans since 1984. What is most surprising, is that the downward spiral is driven by the disaffection of women and Black voters.
- Among African-Americans, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 17 points (82% to 65%) since August
- Among women, the positive image of the Democratic Party has declined by 13 points (from 54% to 41%) since August
Democrats were already struggling against midterm election year odds of low turnout among their most loyal constituencies. Now, a dramatic disaffection of their most loyal constituencies.
As to what is behind the loss of favor for Democratic leadership? According to Gallup, voters simply trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the most important problems of the day like jobs and the economy, ISIS, foreign affairs, the federal budget deficit, and the way government works. The only top issue voters prefer Democrats to manage is equal pay for women.
Granted, Republicans are also under water with Americans, with only 33% having a favorable impression and 56% having an unfavorable impression. However, polls have consistently shown that they are far more enthusiastic about voting this November. Conversely, an October 9, 2014 analysis by Aaron Blake with the Washington Post shows interest in this election among Democrats lowest since 1998.
Obama’s Job Approval “Lowest Ever” Per Washington Post/ABC News
The Washington Post/ABC News poll, conducted October 9-12, shows that Pres. Obama continues to be a drag on vulnerable Democrats:
- Overall approval rating of 40% is the lowest ever
- Among independent voters, Obama’s job approval is only 33%
- Only 29% approve of Obama’s handling of immigration
- 44% approve of his handling of the economy; 51% disapprove
- Only 35% approve of Obama’s handling of the Islamic State insurgents
High Point Poll: On Monday, October 13, 2014, the High Point University Poll showed the North Carolina U.S. Senate race tied among likely voters at 40% each. As with national polls, Obama’s job approval in North Carolina is under water. Senator Hagan’s is even worse:
- Kay Hagan’s job approval was 35%; 54% disapprove (19 points underwater)
- Obama’s job approval was 40%; 55% disapprove (15 points underwater)
- Thom Tillis’ job approval was 32%; 46% disapprove (14 points underwater)
Turnout Implications of Recent North Carolina Federal Court Decisions
Same-Sex Marriage: The political value for Thom Tillis of last week’s federal judicial ruling legalizing same-sex marriage in North Carolina, and this week’s federal judicial ruling giving him and NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger the right to intervene in an appeal, is best understood in the context of how important religion is in the Old North State.
According to Gallup’s analysis of how voters in each state compare to other states on issues like politics, the economy and religion, North Carolina has the 9th highest “Very Religious” population in the nation at 49.5%, well above the national average of 41.4%. That means:
- Same-sex court rulings have galvanized social conservatives behind Thom Tillis
- Rulings are likely to drive up turnout among conservatives offended by same-sex weddings, and by those threatened by the power of one federal judge, appointed by President Obama, to overturn a state constitutional amendment
GOP Elections Law: The political value for Thom Tillis of last week’s 7-2 U.S. Supreme Court decision allowing the new Republican-crafted elections law is as follows:
- 7-2 ruling defuses the explosive argument that GOP is dragging the state back to the Jim Crow era, as two liberal Justices joined in ruling against the Moral Monday argument
- 7-2 ruling deflates the momentum created by Moral Monday over GOP elections law
- 7-2 ruling means no straight-party voting, likely to hurt Democrats more than the GOP
Conclusion: The daily news during the week of October 13-17, 2014, has been so consistently negative for Democrats that it just may cause the political momentum to shift to the Republicans for the remainder of the campaign. The apparent momentum shift is why the National Senatorial Campaign Committee has invested an additional $6 million in North Carolina on Tillis’ behalf.
Due to midterm election year turnout history, there is high likelihood for low turnout among critical Democratic constituencies like African-Americans, young voters and single women. If the disaffection among African-Americans and women for the Democratic Party, as seen in the Washington Post/ABC News Poll, continues through Election Day, that trend plus the recent federal court decisions on same-sex marriage and GOP elections law reforms will all come together to make a good year for North Carolina Republicans at all levels … and Tillis will win.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis October 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 25 5:13 pm “Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot,” said President Obama last Thursday, October 2, during a speech at Northwestern University in defense of his administration, “Every single one
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Make No Mistake, Hagan Hampered by President; GOP Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends Favor Tillis
October 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 25 5:13 pm
“Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot,” said President Obama last Thursday, October 2, during a speech at Northwestern University in defense of his administration, “Every single one of them,” he added emphatically.
Democrats cringed all across America. Cringed because they know midterm elections trend against the party in the White House; because they know midterm elections are a referendum on the president. They know this president’s job approval is underwater. Real Clear Politics Oct 8:
- Obama’s overall job approval is 43%; disapprove 53%
- Obama’s job approval on the economy is 41%; disapprove 55.1%
- Obama’s job approval on foreign policy is 37.3%; disapprove 56%
North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan has spent her entire campaign staging a distraction from her association with Obama and federal problems that have festered on their watch, deflecting attention to state problems that have festered on Tillis’ watch. Then President Obama’s speech at Northwestern University last Thursday. “Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot.”
“Every single one of them.” Collective cringe among Hagan Democrats.
Here in North Carolina, President Obama’s job approval is 41.4%, with 52.6% of likely voters disapproving, according to a new Suffolk University/USA Today statewide survey. Hagan’s job approval is also under water: 42.4% approve; 46.6% disapprove.
Fortunately for Hagan, her Republican opponent, Thom Tillis, has lousy numbers when it comes to Favorable/Unfavorable voter opinions. Tillis is seen favorably by 37.8% in the Suffolk University/USA Today survey conducted Oct. 4-7; 44% see him unfavorably.
However, Hagan is seen more unfavorably than Tillis (47% unfavorable); but has a higher favorable perception: 42.2% to his 37.8%.
As for Obama, 53.4% of likely North Carolina voters see him unfavorably; 44.4% favorably. Now you know what’s behind the Tom Tillis mantra: Hagan voted with Obama 95% of the time.
Gallup: Republicans have Major Advantage on Motivation/Enthusiasm
Not only are midterm elections a referendum on the president, who happens to be an unpopular Democrat in 2014, midterm elections also disfavor turnout among traditional Democratic constituencies like African-Americans, single women and young voters. They simply lack presidential year fervor. They stay home in droves.
Today, October 8, 2014, Gallup came out with a new study showing Republicans with a +12-point advantage among voters who have given either “quite a lot or some” thought to the elections this fall. Other indicators friendly to Republicans in 2014, from today’s Gallup study:
- Republicans have a +19-point advantage among voters “Extremely” motivated to vote.
- Republicans have a +18-point advantage among voters. “More enthusiastic” about voting
Republicans on Track to Neutralize the Democrats’ Ground Game
If there is a game changer in the 2014 general election it is likely to be a superior GOP ground game that neutralizes the digital voter communications and turnout advantage Democrats established in 2008 and 2012. That potential is the result of an early commitment by the RNC to an in-house tech incubator called Para Bellum Labs, complete with 50 geeks and the best hardware and software money can buy, along with the allied support of organizations like Americans for Prosperity, who have committed tens of millions of dollars just to a ground game in 2014.
Of course, the Democrats are not ignoring the opportunity in 2014 to keep their digital advantage. They are operating under an umbrella called Project Ivy, scaling the highly successful Obama data-mining, contact and turnout operation to campaigns like North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. And, there are many allied groups from unions to Planned Parenthood spending tens of millions of dollars to turn out African-Americans, single women and young voters.
Never doubt the ability of Democrats to turn out their voters in 2014.
Never doubt the ability of Republicans to match or surpass the Democrats’ turnout in 2014.
Further complicating turnout for Democrats is the fact that all of the most politically significant new Republican election laws have been upheld by state and federal courts. Limited early voting days, voter IDs and no straight-party voting are still on the books all over America.
So, with a combination of midterm election year trends more negative to Democrats, low job approval numbers for the Democratic president and Democratic Senator Hagan, an anemic interest in the election this fall among rank and file Democrats, and courts consistently upholding new Republican election law changes, you can see why Hagan’s lead has slipped to only 2 points in the Suffolk University/USA Today poll, and why Thom Tillis is on track to win the senate race.
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
UPDATE JANUARY 10, 2014 REPORT: North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan September 25, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 24 3:13 pm This is an update of my January 10, 2014 report titled, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to
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UPDATE JANUARY 10, 2014 REPORT:
North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan
September 25, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 24 3:13 pm
This is an update of my January 10, 2014 report titled, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan.
From the January 10 report:
- No North Carolina Democrat has won a second term in the U.S. Senate since 1968
- Midterm elections do not favor the party in the White House, Democrats
- The NC Democratic Party is in shambles; the GOP has power and strong leaders
- Both candidates are equally smart, competitive and capable of raising money
- Polls show the race virtually tied with Hagan at 44% and Tillis at 42%
- For every “extreme right” attack ad that Hagan or her super PACs run against Tillis, he and his super PACs can counter with equally damaging “extreme left” attack ads
- Hagan will be on the defense throughout 2014 for telling PolitiFact’s 2013 Lie of the Year, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.”
On Monday, September 22, 2014, the latest statewide poll of likely voters, released by High Point University, showed the race where it was in January, virtually tied with Hagan at 42% and Tillis at 40% (6% for Libertarian Sean Haugh; 12% Undecided or won’t say).
Key Question: So why is Kay Hagan struggling to seize a commanding lead in the race with Tillis despite a year-long fundraising and spending advantage? Because by an overwhelming margin, likely North Carolina voters disapprove of the job she and President Obama are doing.
- President Barack Obama’s Job Approval is 38%; Disapprove 57%
- Senator Kay Hagan’s Job Approval is 39%; Disapprove 50%
Historically, midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. With North Carolina voters having such low regard for the White House, ads saying “Hagan votes with the President 95% of the time” are keeping her disapproval numbers high and her potential for victory low.
Ultimately, this race will end in a tie with turnout operations determining the winner.
Reasons Why Turnout Likely to Favor a Tillis Upset Win
I am persuaded that this fall Republicans will neutralize the historic digital voter contact and turnout advantage that Democrats established in 2008 and refined in 2012. That development, along with new election laws and midterm election year trends, favors a Tillis upset win.
MIDTERM TURNOUT: Since 1992, the average midterm election year turnout is about 22 points lower than presidential election years. In 2008, statewide turnout in the North Carolina General Election was 70%. In 2010, statewide General Election turnout was 43.8%.
As pointed out in the January 10 report, turnout in midterm elections drops most significantly among Democratic constituencies like African Americans, single women, and young people.
EARLY VOTING TURNOUT: When you take a look at the early voting turnout in 2008, the presidential election year in which Hagan won, as compared to the 2010 midterm election year, you can readily see that Hagan’s biggest challenge is yet to come.
- In 2008, when Hagan won, 48% of all registered Democrats voted early; 52% of all registered African-American voters voted early
- In 2010, a midterm election year, only 16.1% of all registered Democrats voted early; only 14.9% of all registered African-Americans voted early
STRAIGHT PARTY VOTERS: You see a similar shift in the partisan advantage of straight party voters from presidential election years to midterm election years.
- In 2008, 1,283,486. Democrats voted straight party; 59% of all straight party voters
- In 2010, 599,985, Democrats voted straight party; 51% of all straight party voters
NEW ELECTION LAWS: The elimination of straight party voting is one of the new election laws passed by the Republican General Assembly scheduled to take effect this fall. Today, September 25, 2014, a three-judge federal panel is convening in Charlotte to hear arguments on whether enforcement of the new election laws should be delayed.
If the three-judge panel rules next week that the new election laws can stand, Democrats will face an even tougher turnout challenge. Under the new rules, early voting days are reduced from 17 to 10. There will be no same-day registrations and no straight party voting.
TURNOUT OPERATIONS: In 2012, the Obama camp in Chicago invested $100 million during the 18 months before Election Day in a digital voter contact and turnout operation called Narwhal. They defied the odds and turned out African-Americans and young voters in key swing states in numbers even higher than their historic 2008 accomplishments. That’s why Obama won.
Meanwhile, in Boston, the Romney camp invested an inadequate amount of resources in a digital voter contact and turnout operation called Orca. Orca crashed on Election Day.
Following the loss of the presidential race of 2012, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus directed a self-assessment that became a scathing critique titled the Growth & Opportunity Project. Republicans were their own worst critics on matters like communications with minorities and women and mobilizing voters through digital communications. They were determined to improve.
Democrats laughed at Republicans for admitting their weaknesses in their communication with women and minorities. If my January 10 conclusions are on target, and if Republicans do neutralize the Democrats’ digital voter turnout advantage, then Democrats won’t be laughing on Election Day.
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