Intimidation by U.S. Senate Democratic Leaders Weakened by Pundits Predicting GOP Majority September 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 23 7:13 am Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with
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Intimidation by U.S. Senate Democratic Leaders Weakened by Pundits Predicting GOP Majority
September 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 23 7:13 am
Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with their legislation.
You can rest assured that Democrat U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has put the word out to the political investor crowd that anyone backing North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis against North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race can forget his support.
However, with most of the major national pundits saying that the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader is more likely to be a Republican, Sen. Harry Reid’s intimidation is greatly weakened.
Further, you can count on likely Republican U.S. Senate leaders to put the word out that in 2015, the GOP majority leadership will remember only those who supported Thom Tillis in 2014.
Here is what the leading pundits are saying:
NATE SILVER: FiveThirtyEight 9/9 forecast model gives Republicans a 62.2% odds of winning the U.S. Senate majority.
NY TIMES UPSHOT: GOP has 59% odds of winning U.S. Senate majority (9/9/2014)
STU ROTHENBERG: “I am now [9/9] expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.” “But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.”
Hagan-Tillis U.S Senate: a 26-point Gender Gap
On November 4, 2008, CNN Exit Polls showed Kay Hagan winning women 55% to 41% (+14), and Elizabeth Dole winning among men 50% to 47% (+3), creating a 17-point gender gap. The latest public opinion polls show Hagan with a +12 points among women, down a bit from 2008; Thom Tillis is up among men by +14 points, 11% higher than Dole’s vote among male voters.
Polls continue to show North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race neck and neck.
- Real Clear Politics’ running average of all polls: Tillis 43.3%; Hagan 42.5%
- New York Times/CBS News tracking poll from August 18 to September 2 shows Tillis with a slight lead: 41% to 39%
- Hagan beats Tillis among women 43% to 31% (+12); Tillis wins men 50% to 36% (+14)
KEY POINTS:
- Hagan’s +12 among women and Tillis’ +14 among men creates a 26-point gender gap
- In 2012, the 20-point national gender gap in the race between Pres. Obama and Mitt Romney was the highest Gallup has measured in a presidential election since 1952
- As of 9/6, there are 3,523,078 women registered to vote in NC; 2,960,583 men
- Hagan will exploit the gender gap and registration advantage women have in North Carolina by making gender-sensitive issues front and center in her campaign
President’s Job Approval a Drag on Democrats
According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted September 4-7, 52% of Americans see the Obama presidency as a failure, with 42% saying it is a success.
- Obama’s job approval is 42%, 1% above his all-time low
- Obama’s Job Approval among blacks is 87%; among Hispanics 57%; among whites 31%
- 55% say Obama has done more to divide the country; 38% say more to unite
KEY POINTS:
- As midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, the negative perception of this White House makes Obama a drag on Kay Hagan in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race
- Obama’s job approval is highest among those least likely to turn out in mid-term elections (minorities, young voters, single women); lowest among those most likely to vote.
Nationally, there is consensus that Republicans are on track to win the majority in the U.S. Senate. That reduces U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s ability to intimidate would-be Tillis contributors, and strengthens the influence of potential U.S. Senate Republican leaders.
Here in North Carolina, the winner of the Hagan-Tillis U.S. Senate race comes down to whether the GOP has improved its digital data mining and voter turnout ground game enough to neutralize the potential Democrats have of using their proven ability to drive up turnout of those least likely to vote.
Republicans have known since 2012 that they were outsmarted by the Democrats with digital voter contact and turnout operations. North Carolina’s partisan political fortunes in 2014 come down to whether the GOP allows the Democrats to outsmart them again.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
GWU Bipartisan Battleground Poll Confirms GOP-Friendly Trends in Fall U.S. Senate Races September 3, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 22 2:13 pm All political pollsters agree that the response of voters to the question, “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Congress?” … also known
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GWU Bipartisan Battleground Poll Confirms GOP-Friendly Trends in Fall U.S. Senate Races
September 3, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 22 2:13 pm
All political pollsters agree that the response of voters to the question, “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Congress?” … also known as the Generic Congressional Ballot question … is one of the best predictors of which party has an advantage during any given election year.
According to the new bipartisan-led national George Washington University Battleground Poll, the GOP has a 4-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot at the fall 2014 starting gate.
- GOP has a 16-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot in the states where there is a competitive U.S. Senate race (like North Carolina)
- Independent voters are trending GOP 41% to 26% Democratic; 33% undecided
- Republicans lead among Middle-Class voters by 11 points
- GOP has a 12-point lead among those “extremely likely to vote” (51% to 39%)
- 69% of Republicans are “extremely likely to vote;” 57% of Democrats
Over the last twenty years, the GWU Battleground Poll has become one of the country’s most reliable public opinion surveys. The new GWU Battleground Poll, released today, September 3, was led by GOP pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. “Likely Voters” were surveyed from Aug 24 through Aug 28.
Economic issues driving country on Wrong Track to 70%
Among likely voters, 70% say the country is on the wrong track; most say that President Obama is responsible. That does not bode well for Democratic U.S. Senate candidates like North Carolina’s Kay Hagan, who is fending off the fact that she votes with Obama 95% of the time.
- 70% of voters feel the country has gotten off on the Wrong Track (Republicans 92%, Independents 70%, and Democrats 47%)
- Economy is the #1 issue driving voters to the polls this fall (including Independents, African-Americans and Latinos voters)
- 55% of voters Disapprove of Obama’s handling of the Economy; 44% Approve
- #1 reason the country is on Wrong Track: Issues with Obama’s lack of leadership
- Disapproval of the job President Obama is doing is high regarding his handling of the Federal Budget and Spending (61% disapprove), of Foreign Policy (58% disapprove), of Immigration (57% disapprove), on Working with Congress (57% disapprove)
Voters have more confidence in the GOP on the top issues
- GOP has a 7-point lead on confidence to deal with The Economy (49% to 42%); a 13-point lead on confidence to deal with the Federal Budget and Spending (51% to 38%); a 6-point lead on Taxes (48% to 42%); a 7-point lead on Immigration (48% to 41%); a 10-point lead on Foreign Policy (50% to 42%)
- Although Obama had solid leads “on confidence to deal with” Social Security (47% to 41%), Medicare (50% to 39%), Standing up for the Middle Class (52% to 37%), and Representing Middle-Class Values (51% to 39%), those are not the top issues in 2014.
Turnout favoring GOP by 12 points among most likely voters
- GOP has a 12-point lead among those “extremely likely to vote”
- 69% of Republicans are “extremely likely to vote;” 57% of Democrats
- Although Democrats lead among single women, younger voters and African Americans, their challenge in 2014 is overcoming the lack of enthusiasm among their base
- Only 49% of 18 to 29-year-olds and 48% of single women are “extremely likely to vote”
Midterm election years are a referendum on the White House
If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, since 1910, during President Taft’s administration, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections. There has been only one exception during a second term, midterm election year like 2014: President Bill Clinton in 1998 (Democrats won 5 seats in U.S. House; Lost 0 in U.S. Senate).
If 2014 races are a referendum on President Obama, Democrats in battleground states like North Carolina’s Senator Kay Hagan, will likely lose to challengers like Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House. Add the GOP’s enthusiasm for voting this fall documented in today’s GWU Battleground Poll, and you can see the makings of a good year for the GOP.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters August 28, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 21 9:13 am NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014 There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008,
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NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters
August 28, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 21 9:13 am
NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014
There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008, the election year when historic voter registration and turnout accomplishments led to Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan’s win over Elizabeth Dole for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
From January 1, 2008 through August 30, 2008, North Carolina Democrats registered a net gain of 171,955 new voters. This year, from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014, Democrats have suffered a net loss of 4,122 voters.
In 2008, Democrats had all of the power in North Carolina; the Governor, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President Pro Tem of the Senate. Today, all of those positions are filled by Republicans. Today, the North Carolina Democratic Party has been abandoned by most of its financial backers from the past. Party leaders are in disarray, struggling to regain their footing.
There is so little respect for the North Carolina Democratic Party that the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has managed the $1,631,025 statewide turnout operation, with most of the money from the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Kay Hagan’s political fortunes are certain to be impacted negatively by the loss of standing and resources of the North Carolina Democratic Party. The loss of momentum and enthusiasm this year when compared to 2008 is undeniably devastating.
Unless they can regain their 2008 momentum, Thom Tillis will defeat Kay Hagan this fall.
NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014
As of August 23, 2014, registered voters in North Carolina totaled 6,557,855. Since January 1, 2014, there has been a net increase of 72,999 new voters, most of whom registered Unaffiliated. Democrats continue to lose market share among voters in North Carolina, suffering a net loss of 4,122 voters since January. Republicans have enjoyed a modest gain of 13,095 voters.
Here are the numbers from the State Board of Elections. They reflect the changes in total registered voters from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014:
- January 1, 2014, Democratic registrations totaled 2,760,130 (42.6%)
- August 23, 2014, Democrat registrations totaled 2,756,008, for a net loss of 4,122
- January 1, 2014, Republican registrations totaled 1,991,662 (30.7%)
- August 23, 2014, Republican registrations totaled 2,004,757, for a net gain of 13,095
- January 1, 2014, Unaffiliated registrations totaled 1,710,409 (26.4%)
- August 23, 2014, Unaffiliated registrations totaled 1,772,562, for a net gain of 62,153
North Carolina Democrats Barely Beat the GOP in Obama’s Top Counties
The counties where you would expect Democrats to make significant registration gains are the eight counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total statewide vote in North Carolina in 2012: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham, Forsyth, Cumberland, Buncombe and Orange.
- Democrats gained 5,654 new voters in the eight urban counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total North Carolina vote in 2012
- Republicans gained 4,075 new votes in those same eight urban counties
- Democrats have registered only 1,579 more new voters than Republicans in the eight counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total North Carolina vote in 2012
- There are 24,506 new Unaffiliated voters in those same eight counties
You would think that if Wake County is the epicenter of the statewide ground game for Democrats, they would be leading Republicans in new registered voters. Not true.
- Wake County Democrats have added only 1,270 to their January 1 total, bringing them to 260,512 voters as of August 23
- Wake County Republicans have added 1,578 to their January 1 total, bringing them to 187,653 voters as of August 23
- There are 208,518 Unaffiliated voters in Wake County, a gain of 7,162 since January 1
North Carolina Democrats have a Net Loss of Voters in 79 Counties
There is little good news for Democrats in the voter registration statistics since January 1, 2014, but none more devastating than net loss of voters in 79 of 100 counties.
- Democrats have a net loss in total votes in 79 of 100 counties
- Republicans have a net loss in total votes in 25 of 100 counties
- Democrats have a net gain of greater than 100 new voters in only 9 counties
- Republicans have a net gain of greater than 100 new voters in 40 counties
- Democrats have a net gain of greater than 500 new voters in only 3 counties (Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham)
- Republicans have a net gain of greater than 500 new voters in 7 counties (Mecklenburg, Wake, Union, Brunswick, Iredell, Johnston and Onslow)
North Carolina Unaffiliated Voters have a Net Gain in all 100 Counties
The #1 key to Republican political longevity in North Carolina is their ability to craft their brand to appeal to Unaffiliated voters. The #1 key to Democratic political recovery in North Carolina is their ability to craft their brand to appeal to Unaffiliated voters.
- Unaffiliated voters now total 1,772,562 in North Carolina, 27% of total registrations
- Unaffiliated voters have enjoyed a net gain since January in all 100 counties
- While Democrats show a net loss since January and Republicans a modest gain of 13,095 voters, Unaffiliated registrations show a net gain of 62,153
- While Democrats have grown by more than 100 voters in 9 counties and Republicans in 40 counties, Unaffiliated voters have grown by over 100 voters in 84 counties
Gallup Says Democrats have Lost 10-Point Party Advantage Since 2008
More good news for North Carolina Republicans was reported in yesterday’s Gallup study that showed state Democrats have lost the 10 percentage point advantage they enjoyed over Republicans in 2008 (49% t0 39%), the year Kay Hagan won her U.S. Senate seat.
On the turnout front, Gallup also reported yesterday that “Republicans (42%) are much more engaged than Democrats (27%) in the election at this point.”
There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008, the election year when historic voter registration and turnout accomplishments led to Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan’s win over Elizabeth Dole for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
As I pointed out in yesterday’s report, the best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1 focused primarily on urban voters.
As of today, all indicators, especially voter registration results year-to-date, argue that North Carolina Democrats are not structurally capable of beating Republicans in turnout this fall in statewide campaigns. If there is hope for Democrats in 2014, it is the countywide elections in urban counties.
At the Labor Day starting gate, Thom Tillis is still on track to defeat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race, the General Assembly will remain solidly in the hands of the Republicans, and all Republican candidates running for state government positions are favored in the close elections.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties August 27, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 20 3:13 pm Last Friday, August 22, 2014, Wake County was projected to have 1 million residents. That’s good news for Democrats, as urban voters almost always favor them over the GOP. Urban voters tend
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Wake County Democrats May Determine Next U.S. Senate Majority with Hagan Turnout Duties
August 27, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 20 3:13 pm
Last Friday, August 22, 2014, Wake County was projected to have 1 million residents. That’s good news for Democrats, as urban voters almost always favor them over the GOP. Urban voters tend to be more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than anti-government, more independent than partisan; they are more diverse demographically and are more tolerant socially.
By way of illustration, in 2012, although the state was carried by GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney (it was his closest win), President Obama carried most urban counties by wide margins. Wake County voted for Obama 55% to 44%; Mecklenburg County by 61% to 38%; Guilford County 58% to 41%; Durham County 76% to 23%; Forsyth County 53% to 46%; Orange County 70% to 28%; Pitt County 53% to 46%; Buncombe County 56% to 43%; Cumberland County 60% to 40%.
So strong are the urban counties for Democrats in North Carolina, a full half of Pres. Obama’s vote came from only 8 of the state’s 100 counties.
As to the future, Demographic forecasters have concluded that urban growth will continue well into the century, and that most of the growth will be driven by newcomers moving to urban areas. That growth has shifted North Carolina to the center of the partisan advantage scale.
Turnout in urban counties is critical to Kay Hagan and other statewide Democrats in 2014.
Gallup Says Democrats have Lost 10-Point Party Advantage Since 2008
Gallup revealed today, August 27, 2014, in a new report, North Carolina’s Political and Economic Environment in 2014, that “… about as many North Carolinians lean or identify Democratic (42%) as they do Republican (41%).
The good news for Republicans in today’s Gallup study is that Democrats have lost their 10 percentage point advantage over Republicans in 2008 (49% t0 39%), the year Kay Hagan won her U.S. Senate seat. Now you know why the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is investing tens of millions of dollars on TV and turnout in North Carolina.
On Wednesday, August 13, 2013, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched a $9 million TV ad buy attacking Thom Tillis. That investment is their largest of the election cycle. The Senate Majority PAC, directed by Majority Leader Harry Reid, has already invested $7 million on Hagan’s behalf.
The best thing going for Hagan is that women make up well over half of the electorate and women tend to prefer Democrats over Republicans … especially women who are unmarried. The only problem is, unmarried women do not vote in midterm election years. Neither do young people or African-Americans. Midterm election years are historically dominated by older voters who are more conservative, more married and more likely to vote Republican.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s turnout model in 2014 is called the Bannock Street Project. They are spending $60 million in 10 states (including North Carolina) to hire 4000 paid staff to try to solve the turnout problem among women, Latino and African-American voters in midterm election years.
- Democrats are trying to engage single women by running ads that focus on abortion and contraception coverage
- In North Carolina, Democrats are micro-targeting African-Americans, “using the same Voter Activation Network database as Pres. Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign”
According to the Washington Times story, July 6, 2014, Democrats microtarget blacks in South in effort to keep Senate, “the North Carolina NAACP is deploying about 50 organizers across the state for the next 10 weeks.”
The story quotes Hagan campaign spokesman Chris Hayden as saying, “we are building the biggest and most effective turnout organization North Carolina has ever seen in a Senate race.”
But the Democratic Party of North Carolina is in shambles. Who can assume the responsibility of turning out Democrats in 2014, knowing that their success or failure will determine the majority in the U.S. Senate? Ladies and gentlemen, may I introduce the Wake County Democratic Party.
Wake County Democratic Party has Spent $1.56 Million for Hagan Turnout
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
Since March 2014, the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has received $1,631,025, and has spent $1,563,534, almost all on “Office Rent” at 24 county headquarters around the state and “Salary” expenses for over 100 employees.
- Just in the month of July, the Wake County Democrats received $585,487
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee contributed $523,067of the July total
- DSCC has contributed $1,345,559 to Wake County Democrats since March
So what are Wake County Democrats doing with $1,631,025? You can get a good idea by taking a look at the July Disbursements, Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee, which shows what was spent from July 1, 2014 through July 31, 2014.
- “Office Rent” was paid for space in Charlotte, Asheville, Santa Anna California, Cary, Zebulon, Fayetteville, High Point, Greensboro, Sanford, Chapel Hill, Salisbury, Wilmington, Greenville, Gastonia, Conover, Durham, Statesville, Selma, Rocky Mount, Jacksonville, Concord, Southmont, Rutherfordton, Carrboro, Hendersonville
- “Salary” was paid to over 100 employees in July throughout the state
Democratic Party of NC Received only $19,061 from Individuals in 2nd Q
While the Wake County Democratic Party was reporting $585,487 income for July only, the Democratic Party of North Carolina reported $417,848 for the entire 2nd Quarter. Individuals contributed only $19,061 during the 2nd Quarter. All of the top 10 contributors to the state party in the 2nd Quarter are members of the General Assembly:
| Sen. Josh Stein | $57,500 | Year to Date $157,000 |
| Rep. Larry Hall | $50,000 | Year to Date $435,120 |
| Sen. Dan Blue | $50,000 | Year to Date $65,000 |
| Sen. Floyd McKissick | $30,000 | Year to Date $38,000 |
| Rep. Grier Martin | $20,000 | Year to Date $31,750 |
| Rep. Verla Insko | $15,000 | Year to Date $64,650 |
| Rep. Darren Jackson | $15,000 | Year to Date $36,000 |
| Rep. Michael Wray | $10,000 | Year to Date $19,778 |
| Sen. Ben Clark | $7500 | Year to Date $15,000 |
| Rep. Joel Ford | $7500 | Year to Date $12,500 |
Take a look at the complete list of contributors to the Democratic Party of North Carolina and you will see the scant number of Individuals contributing the $19,061 during the 2nd Quarter. Only $225,117 has been contributed by Individuals to the state party the entire election cycle.
In a state like North Carolina, a battleground state where both parties are tied in the number of loyalists, the candidate who wins the ground game wins the election.
On the turnout front, more good news for Republicans from Gallup today … and problematic news for Democrats … in that “Republicans (42%) are much more engaged than Democrats (27%) in the election at this point.”
The best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1 focused primarily on urban voters. They are clearly on that track, and it’s all being run out of the Wake County Democratic Party.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
U.S. President Born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., Sworn in 40 Years Ago, Withstood the Corrupting Influence of Political Power August 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 19 12:13 pm Most of the news media coverage of the 40th anniversary of the resignation of President Richard Nixon, tendered at 11:35 a.m. on August 9, 1974, highlights
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U.S. President Born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., Sworn in 40 Years Ago, Withstood the Corrupting Influence of Political Power
August 8, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 19 12:13 pm
Most of the news media coverage of the 40th anniversary of the resignation of President Richard Nixon, tendered at 11:35 a.m. on August 9, 1974, highlights Nixon’s personal weaknesses and moral failings that led to the Watergate Scandal and his downfall. I would like to shift the attention to what happened 30 minutes later at 12:05 p.m., on August 9, 1974, when the 38th President of the United States, born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., was sworn in.
The 38th President of the United States is the only president who was never elected president or vice president. He was chosen because of his personal strengths and moral integrity. In honor of the 40th anniversary of his swearing in, I have selected passages from his autobiography, A Time to Heal, including prayers he and his wife said one week before he became president.
Leslie Lynch King, Jr. was born on July 14, 1913. While an infant, his father’s abusive behavior (beating his mother and threatening both of them with a knife) led to his parents’ divorce.
He was raised in Grand Rapids, Michigan by his mother and stepfather, a paint salesman.
He graduated from the University of Michigan, where he was a star football player on the national championship teams of 1932 and 1933. He washed dishes to help pay for college.
He graduated from Yale University Law School in the top 25% of his class.
On December 3, 1935, at the age of 22, he changed his legal name to honor his stepfather, the paint salesman, to Gerald Rudolff Ford, Jr.
In 1942 – 43, he spent a year at Chapel Hill, North Carolina at the Naval Preflight School.
He married, had four children, and served in the United States Congress as a Republican from Grand Rapids, Michigan for 25 years. He rose to the leadership role of U.S. House Minority Leader.
In December 1973, Congressman Jerry Ford was selected by President Richard M. Nixon to fill Vice President Spiro Agnew’s term after Agnew was forced to resign due to criminal charges related to bribes he accepted while Governor of Maryland.
Eight months later, on August 9, 1974, President Nixon resigned due to the Watergate Scandal.
In his autobiography, A Time to Heal, President Ford shared a profoundly personal moment that occurred in the wee hours of the morning one week before his swearing in; the night he and his wife Betty realized that Nixon may have to resign and that they may be living in the White House.
“It was almost one-thirty and time to go to bed. We entered our bedroom, undressed and snapped off the light. As we lay there in the darkness, our hands reached out and touched simultaneously without either of us having said a word. Then we began to pray.
“God, give us strength, give us wisdom, give us guidance as the possibility of a new life confronts us.
“We promise to do our very best, whatever may take place.
“You have sustained us in the past.
“We have faith in Your guiding hand in the difficult and challenging days ahead.
“In Jesus’ name we pray.”
“I concluded with a prayer from the fifth and sixth verses of chapter 3 of the Book of Proverbs: ‘Trust in the Lord with all thine heart, and lean not unto thine own understanding. In all thy ways acknowledge Him, and He shall direct thy paths.’”
“Fifty years before, I had learned that prayer as a child in Sunday school. I can remember saying it the night I discovered that my stepfather was not my real father. I had repeated it often at sea during World War II. It was something I said whenever a crisis arose.”
The following Wednesday, the day before Nixon resigned, Ford writes in A Time to Heal:
“At eleven-thirty the next morning, I went to the Office of House Minority Leader John Rhodes for our regular Wednesday prayer session with Minnesota Representative Albert Quae and former Wisconsin Representative Melvin Laird. We’d been having these private sessions for some time, and the pattern was always the same. One of us started out with a simple prayer. Then we went around the room with no predetermined sequence. When the last person had finished, we said the Lord’s Prayer in unison.
No one mentioned the political crisis gripping the capital. No one had to. The prayers the others offered were all in my behalf as the potential President. And mine were for their support – and God’s – in meeting the new challenges that I’d face.”
The following day, Thursday, August 8, 1974, President Nixon announced to the nation via a live TV broadcast that he would resign the next day at noon. At 12:05 p.m. the next day, August 9, 1974, Gerald Rudolff Ford, Jr., born Leslie Lynch King, Jr., was sworn in as President of the United States. He ended his 850-word swearing in speech this way:
“My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over… Our Constitution works; our great Republic is a government of laws and not of men. Here the people rule. But there is a higher Power, by whatever name we honor Him, who ordains not only righteousness but love, not only justice but mercy.”
It is important that we remember the cautionary lessons of leaders like Nixon who were corrupted by political power. But, it is far more important that we remember the lessons of leaders like President Ford who showed us that we can choose to lead with personal strengths and moral integrity; that we can lead without being corrupted by political power.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis, Editor
Mark Walker Wins GOP Primary Runoff for Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat in the U.S. House July 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 18 12:13 am Walker fanned the flames of resentment of super PAC attack ads run against him and two other Guilford County candidates during April and May, and tied Berger to Washington
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Mark Walker Wins GOP Primary Runoff for Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat in the U.S. House
July 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 18 12:13 am
Walker fanned the flames of resentment of super PAC attack ads run against him and two other Guilford County candidates during April and May, and tied Berger to Washington and Raleigh political insiders wielding outside money.
On Wednesday, July 9, 2014, Mark Walker called a press conference at the Guilford County GOP Headquarters to accuse Phil Berger, Jr’s father, Phil Berger, Sr., of using his influence as President Pro Tempore of the North Carolina Senate, “to steer political contributions to the super PAC supporting his son,” and of collusion between that super PAC, Keep Conservatives United, and the Berger campaign.
There was no evidence to support the claim. That did not matter to the crowd of angry Guilford County Republicans there to show their support for Walker. They were certain that Phil Berger, Jr. had led the May primary election due to “unnecessarily vicious and unfair campaign attack ad mailers,” attack ads in mailboxes paid for by outside sources of money, specifically, an independent expenditure fund named Keep Conservatives United.
The mailers were run against Guilford County candidates Mark Walker, Zach Matheny and Bruce VonCannon in April and May. Although the Walker, Matheny and VonCannon voters were offended by the mailings, they were not certain at first who was behind the attacks until positive mailers from Keep Conservatives United began showing up in support of Phil Berger, Jr.
During the six weeks leading up to the May primary election, Keep Conservatives United spent $49,414 in support of Phil Berger, Jr. They spent $29,600 against VonCannon, $18,451 against Matheny, and $9,186 against Walker … all from Guilford County. As of July 15, 2014, Keep Conservatives United had spent $98,319 against Walker, and $102,215 for Phil Berger, Jr.
Guilford County is the political epicenter of the district. Remapping in 2011 gave Guilford County 43% of the district, with Rockingham County, Phil Berger, Jr.’s home county, only 12%. There are nearly five times as many Republicans in Guilford County as in Rockingham County.
The Guilford County candidates who lost on May 6 were popular local GOP leaders and strong fundraisers. A total of $1,374,080 was reported by the nine May primary candidates on the April 16 FEC reports.Over $1 million of that total was raised by the Guilford County candidates.
They lost to Phil Berger, Jr., from Rockingham County, with only 12% of the district’s voters, because of “unnecessarily vicious and unfair campaign attack ad mailers” paid for by outside sources.
Walker fanned the flames of resentment of the super PAC attack ads run against him and the two other Guilford County candidates, and fueled those flames by tying Berger to Washington and Raleigh political insiders wielding outside money.
Ultimately, the resentment of unfair ads funded from outsiders turned into a political firestorm that drove turnout up to twice the number anticipated based on historic precedent. The final tally, with 241 of 241 precincts reporting, was 18,871 votes for Mark Walker; 12,550 votes for Phil Berger, Jr.
Mark Walker, who began his quest to serve in the United States Congress in March, 2013, is favored to win the race this November against Democrat Laura Fjeld, former general counsel for the University of North Carolina System. This is a Republican-friendly district where Romney beat Obama in 2012 by 54% to 45%, and McCrory won by 58% to 40%.
NCFEF has the 6th Congressional District rated “Strong Republican” on the group’s Conventional Voting Behavior Ratings. Stu Rothenberg, Rothenberg Political Report, has North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District categorized “Currently Safe Republican.” Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report, rates this district “Solid Republican” on his Partisan Voter Index.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Phil Berger, Jr. Likely to Win Next Tuesday’s GOP Runoff for U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat July 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 17 8:13 am Berger has Money, Organization and an Opponent holding a Smoking Gun Phil Berger, Jr., Rockingham County District Attorney and son of NC Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, Sr., is
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Phil Berger, Jr. Likely to Win Next Tuesday’s GOP Runoff for U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s Seat
July 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 17 8:13 am
Berger has Money, Organization and an Opponent holding a Smoking Gun
Phil Berger, Jr., Rockingham County District Attorney and son of NC Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, Sr., is likely to win the GOP primary runoff race next Tuesday for retiring U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s seat, thanks to clear advantages in money, messaging and mobilization.
Berger’s opponent, Mark Walker, a former pastor at Lawndale Baptist Church in Greensboro, has been on the defensive through much of the runoff due to allegations of flip-flopping on “granting amnesty to illegal immigrants.” A candidate seen as a flip-flopper on an issue as important to Republicans as “illegal immigration” is a candidate out of favor with conservative hardliners, the most likely voters to turn out in a GOP Primary runoff.
Mark Walker has also struggled to raise a competitive campaign war chest, or to attract the backing of an independent group like Keep Conservatives United, a super PAC which has spent about $200,000 to aid Berger during the primary and runoff.
According to a Sunday, July 6, 2014, Greensboro News & Record story, Berger leads Walker in fundraising race, “Since April, the super PAC Keep Conservatives United has spent about $92,000 in support of Berger and about $43,600 to oppose Walker.”
The News & Record story, written by Jennifer Fernandez, notes that Berger has raised twice as much money as Walker during the latest reporting period, and that Berger has spent a total of $433,922 to $274,300 spent by Walker, per the latest FEC reports.
Money means having the resources to do everything right. Messaging; Mobilization. It is a critical advantage if you are from Rockingham County, like Berger, which has only 12% of the district’s voters, running against a candidate from Guilford County, which has 43% of the voters.
Guilford County 43% Voters; Rockingham 12%; District Solid Republican
According to NCFEF’s Almanac of NC Politics 2014 Primary Edition, Guilford County, Mark Walker’s home county, dominates the 6th Congressional District with 43% of all registered voters. Rockingham County, Phil Berger, Jr.’s home county, has only 12%.
- Guilford County 43% of the district, Alamance 14%, Rockingham County 12%, Surry 9%, Stokes 6%, Person 5%, Durham 5%, Caswell 3%, Orange 3% and Granville 1%
- Guilford County, the political epicenter of the district, will always have an advantage in the 6th Congressional District race and will need to be courted diligently and effectively
- The district has 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 25% Unaffiliated voters
- Romney beat Obama here in 2012 by 54% to 45%; McCrory won by 58% to 40%
NCFEF has the 6th Congressional District rated “Strong Republican” on the group’s Conventional Voting Behavior Ratings. Stu Rothenberg, Rothenberg Political Report, has North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District categorized “Currently Safe Republican.” Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report, rates this district “Solid Republican” on his Partisan Voter Index.
That means that the winner of next week’s GOP primary runoff is favored to win the Fall General Election race against Democrat Laura Fjeld, former general counsel for the University of North Carolina System.
Turnout: 95%-96% will NOT VOTE; 6,000-7,000 votes wins
- July 17, 2012 was last election with a GOP Primary runoff in congressional races
- Only 220,635 voters participated statewide (3.58% total turnout) on 7/17/2012
- GOP Congressman Richard Hudson won his 2012 runoff race with 10,635 total votes, reflecting a 75% drop off in Republicans participating in the 2nd round runoff
- GOP Congressman Mark Meadows won his 2012 runoff race with a total of 17,427 votes; reflecting a 76% drop off in Republicans participating in the 2nd round runoff
On May 6, 2014, a total of 44,136 votes were cast in the 6th District GOP primary race. Based on historical 2nd round drop-off ranges of 75% to 80%, the July 15 GOP 6th District primary runoff turnout is likely to be 12,000 – 14,000 total votes.
That means as few as 6,000 – 7,000 votes could win the runoff … and the congressional seat!
Keep Conservatives United Exploit Walker’s Smoking Gun
In the July 3, 2014 Rhino Times, a conservative weekly newspaper, the commentary by John Hammer titled Walker’s Positions Evolve; Berger’s Remain Steady, described Walker as “a candidate with his finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.”
A candidate with that reputation cannot win a Republican primary runoff race where the most likely voters are conservative hardliners who believe that right is right and wrong is wrong and anything between the two is not worth discussing.
Walker has been against the ropes ever since U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his campaign on June 10, 2014, in part because of his support for the immigration reform principles of the DREAM ACT. Within days, the pro-Berger Keep Conservatives United super PAC ran ads exposing two smoking gun quotes by Mark Walker on the immigration issue, quotes from respected local sources like the Rhino Times and Walker’s own website:
“I would propose legislation that would provide an incremental pathway to legalization for 12 million illegal immigrants.”
“I propose ‘Pathway to Security’ legislation that would provide an incremental pathway to citizenship for 12 million illegal immigrants.”
Walker’s response was anemic: “Truthfully, my position on this issue as a minister was not well articulated.” It was also confusing. Being for a pathway to “legalization” but against “amnesty” is a position that requires elaboration. If you have to elaborate, you lose voters.
Walker has set himself up to be portrayed as a flip-flopper on immigration. Not good if you are counting on uncompromising ideological purists to turn out and vote for you.
Berger’s Counterpunch as Good as it Gets
Berger showed his ability to counterpunch during the final weeks of the first primary race when one of his opponents funded an attack against him claiming that as Rockingham County District Attorney “he allowed a child molester to get off with an easy sentence.”
Fortuitously, a NC Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission study was released that gave the Berger camp the perfect counterpunch, one that completely discredited the attack. The report concluded that: “Defendants who are sentenced to prison in Rockingham County receive the most severe punishments available, nearly four times the state average.”
- DA Berger’s office is ranked 1st in criminal defendants with the lengthiest sentences
- Average Rockingham Co. max sentence is 13 months longer than state average
- One of top three counties in state for “the longest minimum jail sentence”
As a response to an attack ad, it doesn’t get any better than that!
Meanwhile, because of limited resources, Walker has not been in a position to counter the barrage of attack ads on the “immigration flip-flop,” ads that are certainly discouraging to many Republicans who otherwise would likely have been Walker voters.
Granted, Mark Walker has volunteers from his church community that he has networked since he began his campaign in March 2013. And, he has a small, but very loyal staff. But, without operating capital he will not be able to counter the “he flip-flopped on immigration” attack ads.
Endorsements
Most endorsements are not politically significant: Campaign news over the last few weeks has included announcements of endorsements of Phil Berger, Jr. by former Greensboro Mayor Robbie Perkins, and announcements of endorsements of Mark Walker by GOP primary losers Mark Harris and Heather Grant. Walker also touted the endorsement of conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly, who turns 90 in August.
Voters are indifferent to endorsements. They rarely influence the outcome of elections.
If there is an exception, it is Billy Yow’s endorsement of Phil Berger, Jr. last week. Yow, a former Guilford County commissioner, is a “Give ‘Um Hell Harry” hard-core conservative highly regarded by right-wing conservative Republicans in the area.
Last Friday, July 4, 2014, Greensboro’s News & Record ran a story on the endorsement that described Yow as, “… a popular conservative political brand in Guilford, the largest county in the sprawling 6th District. Brash and colorful, Yow is known for cutting remarks, fiery speeches and a no-holds-barred approach to dealing with Democrats.”
If Billy Yow says Phil Berger, Jr. is a solid conservative, you can bet Phil Berger, Jr. is a solid conservative. Yow’s endorsement matters. Like Howard Coble’s endorsement of Phil Berger, Jr. matters. Especially to voters most likely to turn out in the July 15 GOP primary runoff.
Walker has also been able to win several prized endorsements including:
- Guilford County Sheriff B.J. Barnes and Terry Johnson, the Alamance County Sheriff
- Guilford County Commissioner Alan Branson
- Bill Wright, former Guilford Co. GOP Chair and Mayor
- Civil rights leader Clarence Henderson
- Summerfield Mayor Tim Sessoms and Stokesdale Mayor Randy Braswell
Phil Berger, Jr.’s endorsements include:
- Congressman Howard Coble
- Tony Wilkins, former Guilford County GOP chairman who is frequently referred to as “The Lone Conservative Voice” on the Greensboro City Council
- North Carolina Sen. Trudy Wade
- Marty Kotis, a prominent conservative Republican who made his money in real estate
- Guilford County Commissioner Linda Shaw
- Billy Yow, former Guilford County Commissioner
Key Dates/Conclusions
Final debate July 11 is a manageable risk: The final week of the campaign is the peak period of exhaustion and stress. Not a time to be taking risks with debates IF you are winning.
However, Berger’s willingness to accept an invitation to debate Walker on July 11 takes the “he’s afraid to debate me” issue off the table, leaving Walker with little to counter Berger’s attack machine. Berger wins the debate by not losing the debate due to a gaffe. A manageable risk.
The debate will be recorded here in Raleigh at TWC News, with “Capital Tonight” anchor Tim Boyum as the moderator. It will air at 7:30 pm, July 11 on the TWC affiliate channels.
- Absentee Voting by Mail began May 31, 2014
- Early voting began July 3, 2014; ends July 12, 2014
- Election Day July 15, 2014
Phil Berger, Jr., Rockingham County District Attorney and son of NC Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, Sr., is likely to win the GOP primary runoff race next Tuesday for retiring U.S. Rep. Howard Coble’s seat, thanks to clear advantages in money, messaging and mobilization.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble UPDATE July 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 16 8:13 am If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, you will discover that Democrats agree UNLESS the president is a Democrat,
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If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble
UPDATE July 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 16 8:13 am
If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, you will discover that Democrats agree UNLESS the president is a Democrat, and Republicans agree UNLESS the president is a Republican. Unfortunately for all partisans, history agrees that midterm elections are a referendum on the White House no matter the party of the occupant.
Since 1910, during President Taft’s administration, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections. There have been only two exceptions; only one exception if you look at second term, midterm elections like 2014. Exception: Bill Clinton in 1998 (Democrats won 5 seats in House; 0 Senate).
That’s it. One exception since 1910.
In 2006, during Republican President George W. Bush’s second-term, midterm elections, the GOP lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate. That year U.S. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said, “The upcoming midterm elections are a referendum on the policies of Bush.”
Now that a Democrat is in the White House during a second-term, midterm election year, you hear Democratic leaders like DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz say on NBC’s Meet the Press, “No, absolutely not,” the November midterm elections are not a referendum on the Obama Administration. Apparently, Schultz has forgotten 2010, President Obama’s first-term, midterm election year during which Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate.
Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. Period. As for now, there is an increasing lack of faith in this White House. Especially among the pivotal independent voters.
NPR Says Independent voters are breaking Republican in 2014
A new NPR (National Public Radio) poll released June 19, 2014, shows Pres. Obama’s Job Approval at only 38% among likely voters in the 12 states with competitive Senate races (which includes North Carolina). Perhaps more indicative of who is likely to have a political advantage this Fall are the survey responses by Independent voters that relate to whom voters trust by issue:
- On the Economy, 48% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 28% trust Democrats
- On Healthcare, 44% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 35% trust Democrats
- On the Future of the Middle Class, Independent voters give both parties 38%
- On Foreign Policy, 52% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 26% trust Democrats
The poll was conducted by a bipartisan team that included Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps and Republican Whit Ayers of Resurgent Republic.
Not only did Republicans fair better than Democrats among Independent voters, Republicans did better than Democrats on the generic ballot question, “If the election for U.S. Senate in your state were held today, would you vote for [Name], the Republican candidate, or [Name], the Democratic candidate?”
- 46% of all voters surveyed said they plan to vote Republican for U.S. Senate; 43% of all voters surveyed said they plan to vote Democratic in their state’s U.S. Senate race
- Among Independent voters, 46% plan to vote Republican for U.S. Senate this Fall to only 38% who plan to vote Democratic
New York Times/CBS News poll documents loss of faith in Obama
On Monday, June 23, a New York Times/CBS News poll showed that only 40% of Americans Approve of the job President Obama is doing; 54% Disapprove. As if that was not bad enough, the poll said the results document, “… an increasing lack of faith in the president and his leadership.”
If President Obama’s job approval remains in the low to mid 40s this Fall, he will be a drag on all Democrats running for the U.S. Senate, including Kay Hagan. Here are the latest numbers:
- Per Real Clear Politics: President Obama’s average Job Approval is a dismal 41.6%, with 54% Disapproving, for a net negative -12.4%
- RCP Obama’s Approval on the economy: a net negative -16.3%, with only 39.6% of Americans approving; 55.9% disapproving
- NY Times/CBS News poll (released 6/23) shows 58% of Americans Disapprove of the way President Obama is handling foreign policy
- NY Times/CBS News poll shows 40% Job Approval; 54% Disapproval
- WSJ/NBC News poll (released 6/18) has Obama’s approval of his handling foreign policy a new low of 37%
- WSJ/NBC News poll shows Hispanics who view Pres. Obama favorably and approve of the job he is doing dropped from 67% in January 2013 to 44%
- WSJ/NBC News poll 54% of Americans said they no longer feel the president “is able to lead the country and get the job done,” while 42% said he can
- Quinnipiac poll (released 7/2) shows a plurality of registered voters in U.S. believe that Obama is the “worst president” since WWII
- George W. Bush was second worst, followed by Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter
- Reagan was “best president” since WWII, followed by Clinton and Kennedy
- 45% said U.S. would be “better off if Romney won;” 38% said better off w/Obama
- 54% say the Obama administration is “not competent” at running the government
Too Many Problems for Obama’s Job Approval to Recover by Fall
A growing list of scandals, as well as ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges, suggest that Obama’s Job Approval will not likely recover enough by Oct/Nov for him to be a positive force for Democrats. Current problems driving down the President’s Job Approval include:
- IRS targeting “Tea Party” and other conservative PACs
- IRS lost email files; Lois Lerner and 5 others
- Veterans Admin Scandal (Vets dying while waiting for care)
- Questions about Obama’s competence (including Democrats and media)
- Governance by Executive Order
- Prisoner swap (5 Guantanamo Taliban prisoners for Sgt. Bergdahl)
- Iraq disintegrating (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)
- Syria and the “red line” (chemical weapons) blunder
- Afghanistan
- Ukraine (Russian invasion)
- Benghazi terrorist attack (deaths of four U.S. diplomats, including the Ambassador)
- NSA scandal (data-gathering of internet communications and phone calls)
- Edward Snowden leaks of classified NSA documents
- DOJ subpoena of AP reports’ phone records from Verizon
- Debt/Unsustainable deficit spending; unsustainable entitlements
- Unemployed workers; Food Stamps; Mortgages
- ObamaCare (Affordable Care Act) chronic negatives
If 2014 races are a referendum on President Obama, Democrats like North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan, a Guilford County Democrat, will lose to challengers like Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the House from Mecklenburg County in battleground states around the nation. Add the GOP’s unity and high enthusiasm for voting this Fall, and you can see the makings of a good year for Republicans.
Like it or not, the fact is that since 1910, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections.
Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. Period.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Eric Cantor’s Loss and a Hundred Million Reasons Republicans Can’t Fight the Last War in 2014 June 11, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 15 10:13 am Yesterday, June 10, 2014, for the first time in American history, the sitting U.S. House Majority Leader lost a campaign for reelection. Why? Many conservative Republicans are claiming today
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Eric Cantor’s Loss and a Hundred Million Reasons Republicans Can’t Fight the Last War in 2014
June 11, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 15 10:13 am
Yesterday, June 10, 2014, for the first time in American history, the sitting U.S. House Majority Leader lost a campaign for reelection. Why?
Many conservative Republicans are claiming today that U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican, lost his race for reelection because of the influence of the Tea Party or because of the immigration issue. Wrong. Here is why he lost:
- Eric Cantor was not a good Congressman
- Cantor and his staff had the reputation of being arrogant and aloof
- Cantor spent too much time positioning himself to run for House Speaker and not enough time positioning himself back home to run for reelection
- Cantor let his power go to his head; he didn’t think he was vulnerable
- Cantor was so despised by his own voters that a $5.4 million to $207,000 fundraising advantage and a 34-point lead in the polls couldn’t save him
- Cantor lost by 56% to 44% because of hubris; ego run amok
- Cantor lost despite a staff of 23 to his opponent’s 2 staffers because he was dismissive
The national Tea Party groups like Americans for Prosperity, Tea Party Nation and Freedom Works cannot claim victory in the downfall of Eric Cantor because they did not spend one penny backing his opponent, David Brat, a Randolph-Macon College economics professor.
Brat spent only $122,000 on ads arguing that Cantor had become liberal because of his support for a pathway to citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants and because of his votes for budget deals. You don’t win on the issues with ads when you are outspent 26-to-1.
The Tea Party didn’t win this election. Eric Cantor lost the election.
This was not an anti-establishment anti-incumbent vote. Only one incumbent member of the U.S. House has lost this year: Ralph Hall, the oldest member of Congress at 91-years old.
This was an anti-Eric Cantor vote. An anti-Eric Cantor’s staff vote.
Oh, and he also lost because thought that he could win in 2014 like he always had; that he didn’t need to do anything different in 2014. That he could fight the last war.
A Hundred Million Reasons Not to Fight the Last War
There is an old saying, “generals are always fighting the last war, especially if they won it.” That you can rely on the strategy and tactics that got you where you are.
The classic illustration of generals fighting the last war is the story of the building of the French Maginot Line in the 1930s. The Maginot Line was a series of fortifications and gun emplacements along the border considered a brilliant military advantage for the next Great War … a strategic military advantage based on WW I experiences.
In World War II, the French Maginot Line was of little worth. The Germans outflanked and overran them in about six months. Remember, the French had to be liberated by us!
Republican leaders who think they are going to parlay their power into a financial advantage over Democrats in 2014 may be in for a rude awakening. The tactics for raising money and winning political races in 2014 are as different as World War II was from World War I.
Today, one billionaire can turn all of the majority party’s money into chump change.
Case in point can be found in a Washington Post story on June 10, 2014 about how billionaire Tom Steyer, a California hedge-fund manager, “has vowed to spend up to $100 million in 2014 to help elect Democrats who are committed to fighting global warming.”
In the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia, Steyer spent $8 million independently on attack ads against Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli through his NextGen Climate Action Committee. USA PAC, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s super PAC, spent $1.6 million against Cuccinelli on the issue of gun control.
It took Cuccinelli all year to raise a $20 million war chest from thousands of contributors. It took two billionaires the time it takes to sign a check to raise half that amount.
Steyer’s $100 million commitment to helping Democrats keep the majority in the U.S. Senate is the one hundred million reasons North Carolina Republicans should not fight the last war in 2014.
Always Remember that You are Vulnerable
Last year, I wrote a series of reports titled, Ten Keys to Republican Political Longevity. The first key was, Always Remember that You are Vulnerable.
Eric Cantor lost because he and his staff didn’t think he was vulnerable. He was not defeated by the Tea Party; he defeated himself. The immigration issue is not why Eric Cantor lost, and he didn’t lose due to an anti-establishment anti-incumbent vote. Eric Cantor defeated himself.
This was personal, not political. This was an anti-Eric Cantor and his staff vote.
Those with power, like today’s North Carolina Republicans, can learn much from Eric Cantor’s loss. You can’t go off to the capital city and do as you please, putting your political power higher on the priority list than those you represent, and expect to get reelected.
And, you can’t fight the last war. That’s what Cantor and his staff did.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
No NC Congressional Seat Targeted by Democratic Congressional Campaign’s $44 million Fall TV Buy May 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 14 10:13 am Per AP Thurs, May 29, 2014: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun reserving “almost $44 million in advertising time” with television stations in 39 fall races. North Carolina Implications: No
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No NC Congressional Seat Targeted by Democratic Congressional Campaign’s $44 million Fall TV Buy
May 29, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 14 10:13 am
Per AP Thurs, May 29, 2014: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun reserving “almost $44 million in advertising time” with television stations in 39 fall races.
North Carolina Implications: No North Carolina Congressional race is on the list of the 39 targets. That’s because there are no opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat in North Carolina in 2014. Following the November elections, North Carolina will have 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats in the delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Per AP: “In all, the campaign committee plans to spend money in 19 districts to defend incumbent Democrats, mostly newcomers, and in 17 districts that are in Republican hands.”
Per AP: “That’s [$44 million] the largest ever from the committee and the biggest so far this election year from a party-run campaign committee.” By booking the time early, the DCCC locks in a lower price and a “discount of up to 35 percent.”
To date, no non-partisan observer has argued that Democrats can net 18 wins in 2014, the number needed to take the US House majority from Republicans (who have 233 seats to 199 seats held by Democrats). There are three vacancies.
Here are the 39 targeted races with cities highlighted:
—$625,000 in Little Rock, Arkansas, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Tim Griffin, a Republican.
—$2.2 million in Phoenix broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 2 to Oct. 6 to help first-term Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat.
—$700,000 on Tucson, Arizona, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Ron Barber, a Democrat.
—$1.3 million on Phoenix broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat.
—$1.1 million on Sacramento, California, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Jeff Denham, a second-term Republican.
—$500,000 for Sacramento cable ads from Sept. 9 to Oct. 20, and $1.2 million for Sacramento broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Ami Bera, a Democrat.
—$150,000 on Bakersfield, California, Spanish-language broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 2-22, $200,000 for Bakersfield, California, broadcast ads from Sept. 9-22, $400,000 for Fresno, California, broadcast ads from Sept. 9-22, and $250,000 in Fresno Spanish-language broadcast and cable ads to challenge first-term Rep. David Valadao, a Republican.
—$950,000 on Los Angeles cable ads from Sept. 23 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Julia Brownley, a Democrat.
—$625,000 on Los Angeles cable ads from Sept. 23 to Nov. 4 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Gary Miller, a Republican.
—$1.4 million on San Diego broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 19 to Oct. 13 to help first-term Rep. Scott Peters, a Democrat.
—$1.4 million on Denver broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Mike Coffman, a Republican.
—$90,000 on New York City cable ads from Sept. 23 to Nov. 4, and $670,000 on Hartford, Connecticut, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 24 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Elizabeth Esty, a Connecticut Democrat.
—$400,000 on Tallahassee, Florida, broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 30 to Oct. 20, and $385,000 on Panama City, Florida, broadcast and cable ads to challenge Rep. Steve Southerland, a second-term Republican.
—$970,000 on Miami Spanish-language broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Joe Garcia, a Democrat.
—$490,000 on Augusta, Georgia, broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 2 to Oct. 6, and $670,000 on Savannah, Georgia, broadcast ads from Sept. 9 to Oct. 6 to help Rep. John Barrow, a Democrat.
—$1.3 million on Des Moines, Iowa, broadcast ads from Sept. 5 to Oct. 20 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Tom Latham, a Republican.
—$440,000 on Des Moines, Iowa, broadcast ads and $230,000 for Sioux City, Iowa, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Steve King, a Republican.
—$800,000 for Chicago broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21-27 to help first-term Rep. Brad Schneider, a Democrat.
—$940,000 for St. Louis broadcast ads from Sept. 12-29, and $940,000 on St. Louis broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help first-term Rep. Bill Enyart, an Illinois Democrat.
—$670,000 for Champaign, Illinois, broadcast and cable ads from Sept. 30 to Oct. 20, and $940,000 for St. Louis broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge first-term Rep. Rodney Davis, an Illinois Republican.
—$460,000 on Boston-Manchester, New Hampshire, cable ads from Oct. 7 to Nov. 4, and $965,000 on Boston-Manchester broadcast ads from Oct. 28 to Nov. 4 to help Rep. John Tierney, a Democrat.
—$450,000 on Traverse City, Michigan, broadcast ads from Sept. 2-22, and $490,000 on Traverse City broadcast ads from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Dan Benishek, a Republican.
—$290,000 for Lansing, Michigan, broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Rep. Tim Walberg, a Republican, and in the race to replace retiring Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican.
—$850,000 for Detroit broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to challenge Walberg and first-term Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, a Republican.
—$1.5 million on Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 14 to Nov. 4 to help Rep. Collin Peterson, a Democrat.
—$1.1 million on Minneapolis-St. Paul broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 7-20 to help Rep. Rick Nolan, a Democrat.
—$650,000 on Manchester, New Hampshire, broadcast ads, $1.7 million on Boston-Manchester broadcast ads and $200,000 on Boston-Manchester cable ads from Oct. 7-20 to help Democratic Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Ann McLane Kuster.
—$650,000 on Philadelphia cable ads and $640,000 on New York City cable ads from Aug. 12 to Nov. 4 for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jon Runyan, a Republican.
—$1.4 million on New York City cable ads from Sept. 9 to Oct. 20 to help Rep. Tim Bishop, a Democrat.
—$950,000 on New York City cable ads from Aug. 12 to Oct. 13 to challenge Rep. Michael Grimm, a Republican.
—$480,000 on Albany, New York, broadcast and cable ads, $200,000 on Burlington, Vermont, and Plattsburgh, New York, broadcast ads and $140,000 for Watertown broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 in the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Bill Owens, a New York Republican.
—$300,000 on Buffalo, New York, broadcast ads and $165,000 on Elmira, New York, broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 against Rep. Tom Reed, a Republican.
—$1.9 million on Philadelphia broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 in the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Gerlach, a Republican, and against Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican.
—$940,000 on San Antonio broadcast ads from Sept. 23 to Oct. 13 to help first-term Rep. Pete Gallego, a Democrat.
—$2.8 million on Washington, D.C., broadcast and cable ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 in the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Frank Wolf, a Republican from Northern Virginia.
—$300,000 on Bluefield-Beckley, West Virginia, broadcast ads from Sept. 2-22, $200,000 on Bluefield-Beckley broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4, $435,000 on Charleston-Huntington, West Virginia, broadcast ads from Sept. 2-22, $290,000 on Charleston-Huntington broadcast ads from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4 to help Rep. Nick Rahall, a Democrat.
North Carolina Congressman Mike McIntyre, a Robeson County Democrat who has served the 7th Congressional district for 9 terms, was the last Democrat standing in a Republican-friendly district. He retired because he knew he could not win.
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John N. Davis, Editor