May 14, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 13 4:13 pm North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all
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May 14, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 13 4:13 pm
North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all thanks to an ill-conceived primary TV ad accusing her of being soft on child molesters.
The Republican ad was ill-conceived for two reasons. One, voters who participate in midterm primary elections are older and wiser; wise to the wily ways of political TV ad consultants. For emphasis: They are the least likely voters to be duped. Two, the allegation that Justice Hudson is soft on child molesters is so far outside the boundaries of believability that it backfired.
Any political ad that fails the believability test, especially with a highly offensive allegation, insults the intelligence and sense of propriety of voters and is likely to backfire. And backfire it did. It was so offensive that it united and motivated the Hudson base to turn out in higher numbers. It also motivated many to vote for Hudson who otherwise would not have voted in that race.
A Republican-backed group, the Washington DC-based Republican State Leadership Committee, ran the TV attack ad saying that NC Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, a Democrat, was “Not tough on child molesters. Not fair to victims.” Over $1 million was spent on this one Supreme Court race; $650,000 against Hudson by the Republican State Leadership Committee.
Justice Hudson’s dissent a constitutional issue in a 4-3 Supreme Court decision
The accusation that Justice Hudson was “Not tough on child molesters. Not fair to victims,” was based on a dissenting opinion she wrote in a 4-3 North Carolina Supreme Court decision in a 2010 case named State v. Bowditch. Here are the key legal points in Hudson’s dissent:
- A new law requiring satellite monitoring of convicted felons, including those who have done their time, is in effect “punitive” rather than “regulatory”
- Because it is “punitive,” it violates state and federal constitutional Ex Post Facto Clauses which prohibit adding punishment that did not exist at the time of the crime
In other words, it was a constitutional issue. And, it was a 4-3 split decision in which Hudson’s dissent was joined by Chief Justice Sarah Parker. Is Chief Justice Sarah Parker “Not tough on child molesters? Not fair to victims?” The 4-3 majority reversed a Superior Court ruling. Was the Superior Court judge in this case “Not tough on child molesters? Not fair to victims?”
This case was about applying a new law retroactively to criminals convicted before the law was enacted. The fact that the criminals in the case were child molesters does not change the unconstitutionality of retroactive application of new laws deemed “punitive.”
Republicans soft on molesters while neglecting wounded veteran moms
Using the Republican State Leadership Committee’s justification for the Hudson attack ad, Republicans lawmakers were “Not tough on child molesters. Not fair to victims,” when they passed a state budget last year that included the cost of health care for prisoners in North Carolina, some of whom are child molesters.
When Republicans cut funding for long-term unemployment insurance last November, some of those impacted were wounded female veterans with children. Would it be fair to run a TV ad against Republican lawmakers this fall attacking them for giving health care to child molesters while cutting benefits for wounded female veterans?
When the votes are tallied this November, the partisan balance of the court will be at least 4-3 Republican, and the Chief Justice’s seat will likely be filled by Republican Justice Mark Martin. (It may be a 5-2 Republican court if Republican Appeals Court Judge Robert N. Hunter defeats Democrat Appeals Court Judge Sam Ervin, IV in the race for Justice Martin’s seat.)
So, Republicans need not worry. What Republicans do need to worry about is giving their money to organizations like the Republican State Leadership Committee.
North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Robin Hudson, one of the three Democrats on the “non-partisan” seven-member court, is likely to win her race this fall against Republican Eric Levinson, a Mecklenburg Superior Court judge, thereby earning a third term on the state’s highest court, all thanks to an ill-conceived primary TV ad accusing her of being soft on child molesters.
With friends like the Washington DC-based Republican State Leadership Committee, North Carolina Republicans do not need enemies.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
May 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 12 9:13 am FORECAST: GOP-Friendly Midterm Election Year January 3: On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court,
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May 7, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 12 9:13 am
FORECAST: GOP-Friendly Midterm Election Year
January 3: On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”
That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.
FORECAST: Rouzer will win congressional race; will join U.S. House majority
Other key notes from the January 3, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
What is probable is that David Rouzer, a former state Senator from Johnston County who almost defeated incumbent Robeson County Democrat Congressman Mike McIntyre in 2012, will achieve his goal of representing the 7th Congressional District with a 2014 win. The other 9 Republican held districts will stay in the hands of Republicans, giving the GOP a total of 10 of the 13 North Carolina congressional districts.
Rouzer will almost certainly join a Republican majority U.S. House of Representatives, as the 233-201 GOP advantage will be too great a challenge for Democrats during a mid-term election year. The party in the White House has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House over the past 21 midterm elections, and an average of 4 seats in the U.S. Senate.
PRIMARY RESULTS: David Rouzer defeated Woody White 53% to 41%.
FORECAST: Tillis will win primary outright; likely to upset Hagan in November
January 10: On January 10, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan, I began making the case that Thom Tillis, Speaker of the NC House, would likely win the nomination outright and would be one of the six net gains for U.S. Senate Republicans needed for a majority. Several of the points for a Tillis upset over incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan:
- No North Carolina Democrat has won a second term in the U.S. Senate since 1968
- Mid-term elections do not favor the party in the White House, Democrats
- The NC Democratic Party is in shambles; the GOP has power and strong leaders
But the most important argument was under the subheading, Hagan cannot count on a divided Republican Party. Key quotes from the January 10, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
Of course, the great hope of Brannon/Harris/Flynn/Grant is to force a primary runoff by ganging up on Tillis with enough outside super PAC attack ads that keep his vote below 40%. However, the odds are greater that they will splinter the hard right conservatives and Tillis will parlay a sizable cash and organizational advantage into a primary victory on May 6, 2014.
Tillis’ legislative accomplishments are such that it will simply be too difficult for any Republican to get very far with an attempt to discredit his commitment to the conservative cause. In other words, even his on primary detractors will not likely stay divided against him for long. They want to defeat Hagan.
The Shutdown last December taught most Republicans two important lessons: one, bitter ideological divisions hurt them more than the Democrats; two, just saying no without an alternative proposal is not acceptable to most Americans as leadership.
PRIMARY RESULTS: Thom Tillis won the nomination outright with 46%, defeating Tea Party favorite Greg Brannon (27%) and social conservative favorite Mark Harris (18%).
FORECAST: GOP-led government shutdown galvanized Republicans against hard right
January 16: On January 16, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover, I began making the case that the October 2013 federal government shutdown was the straw that broke the camel’s back among Republicans; a pivotal event that galvanized the GOP against ideological extremism and set them on a course for a 2014 takeover of the U.S. Senate.
Key quotes from the January 16, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year of bitter feuding. Establishment conservatives and Tea Party insurgents blamed each other for destroying yet another opportunity to right the nation’s ship. But, then came October 1, 2013; the day of the government shutdown. A fiasco that damaged Republicans so badly that it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate in 2014.
Voters blamed the Republican Party. Ten times more than the Democrats.
Question 5: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups. I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.
| Public Figures/Groups Gallup October 25-28, 2013 |
Total Positive |
Total Negative |
||
| The Democratic Party |
37% |
40% |
||
| Barack Obama |
41% |
45% |
||
| Ted Cruz |
19% |
30% |
||
| Mitch McConnell |
11% |
28% |
||
| Harry Reid |
17% |
34% |
||
| The Tea Party Movement |
23% |
47% |
||
| John Boehner |
17% |
43% |
||
| The Republican Party |
22% |
53% |
||
There you have it. The Democratic Party’s net positive (37%) over negative (40%) is a negative 3%. The Republican Party’s net positive (22%) over negative (53%) is a negative 31%.
The 2013 shutdown fiasco could have been the death knell for Republican political dreams. Instead, it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP U.S. Senate takeover in 2014.
PRIMARY RESULTS: Thom Tillis won the nomination out right with 46%, defeating Tea Party favorite Greg Brannon (27%) and social conservative favorite Mark Harris (18%).
No Tea Party primary challenger defeated an incumbent member of congress on May 6.
FORECAST: An incumbent-friendly election year
January 31: On January 31, 2014, in the John Davis Political Report titled, January Surprise: National and State GOP Leaders Shifting from Stonewalling to Winning Elections, I noted that political trends from the Virginia and New Jersey elections in 2013 were reliable predictors for North Carolina in 2014.
Key quotes from the January 31, 2014 John Davis Political Report:
Here are the predictive trends from those states for North Carolina in 2014:
(1) Partisan power in the state legislature will stay as is; (2) Almost all incumbents will win their races; (3) Outside independent expenditures will favor the party in power; (4) Non-presidential year low turnout can be expected; (5) Conservative hard-liners out of favor in state-wide races.
Based on trends from 2013 and early indicators of likely advantages, like incumbency, fundraising and non-presidential election year turnout, here are a few forecasts for North Carolina:
- Because legislative and congressional districts are drawn so clearly in the favor of one party, almost all of those races will be over in May … and will not be close
- All congressional incumbents seeking another term will win their primary races and the general election by 10% or more
- David Rouzer, R-Johnston County, will win the GOP primary in the 7th Congressional District by around 10% over Woody White, R-New Hanover
- Republicans will maintain their super majorities in the NC Senate and House
PRIMARY RESULTS:
- All incumbent members of the North Carolina congressional delegation won
- The races were not close, with supposedly competitive races like the challenge to Congresswoman Renee Ellmers ending in a 59%/42% win for Ellmers.
- David Rouzer v. Woody White, another supposedly competitive race (for Mike McIntyre’s seat), was a slam dunk victory (53%/41%).
- No surprise that Rep. Alma Adams, a Guilford County Democrat, won the U.S. House 12 race outright for the seat held since 1992 by former Congressman Mel Watt. I told every audience this year that she would get all of the female voters in the district and that the four Mecklenburg County male candidates would split that county’s votes.
- Only four incumbents in the 170-member NC General Assembly lost: 2 Democrats (Sen. Clark Jenkins, Edgecombe; Rep. Annie Mobley) and two Republicans (Rep. Robert Brawley, Iredell; Rep. Roger Younts, Davidson)
- No one is surprised that the open U.S. House 6 race, held since 1985 by Guilford County Republican Howard Coble, ended with no one getting the 40% required to avoid a runoff.
Well, there you have it.
On January 3, 2014, the John Davis Political Report raised the possibility of “waking up the morning after General Election Day 2014 with a Republican Governor, a Republican majority state Senate and House, a Republican majority state Supreme Court, a Republican majority Court of Appeals, a 10-3 Republican U.S. House delegation and two Republican U.S. Senators joining Republican majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House in Washington, DC.”
That “possibility” is now a probability. The difference? GOP unity and enthusiasm during a midterm election year when the party in the White House always loses most of the close races.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Big Problem for Democrats in 2014: Republicans are Focused on Winning, Not Ideological Purity April 24, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 9 10:13 am North Carolina Democrats really need social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP in 2014. That’s because they, the Democrats, lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican
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Big Problem for Democrats in 2014: Republicans are Focused on Winning, Not Ideological Purity
April 24, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 9 10:13 am
North Carolina Democrats really need social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP in 2014. That’s because they, the Democrats, lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican Party. Unfortunately, Republicans are not cooperating.
So why aren’t Republicans likely to divide and conquer each other in 2014? Because the social and economic hardliners are out of favor. The government shutdown in October 2013 was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Republicans have now turned their attention away from ideological purity to winning legislative majorities, the U.S. House, and seizing the U.S. Senate.
How conservative hardliners lost favor with the GOP
In defense of conservative economic hardliners, they did the entire nation a great service by forcing all Americans to see that the United States was fast becoming a second rate world economic power because of the national debt, deficit spending and unsustainable programs. However, they began to lose credibility with American voters when they refused to participate in what most saw as reasonable and necessary compromises on the federal budget.
For example, the average voter could never understand why all Republican candidates for president in 2012 said they would not accept a budget deal in which there were $10 in program cuts for every $1 in new revenue. And, the average voter could never grasp the constructive value of the 2013 government shutdown led by the Tea Party caucus in the U.S. Congress.
Conservative economic hardliners lost favor with most Republicans because the government shutdown got the party in big trouble. According to a poll conducted in mid-October 2013 by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News:
- The Republican Party was more unpopular that at any time since 1989
- Only 24% of Americans had a positive view of the Republican Party
- 73% said the shutdown was an “extremely” or “quite” serious problem
At the same time conservative economic hardliners were driving up the negative numbers for the Republican Party, conservative social hardliners were adding to the catastrophe by putting their agenda ahead of the economic problems facing the country during the worst recession since the Great Depression. Too many families had struggled too long for lawmakers to put issues like marriage and immigration ahead of unemployment and the long-term jobs outlook for America.
Uncompromising economic and social purists dominated a divided Republican Party in 2012 and 2013. The bitter internal division led to unmitigated political and public policy disasters:
- In 2012, Republicans lost the White House and failed to retake the U.S. Senate.
- In 2012, GOP donors lost $1.2 billion in direct investment in Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and lost hundreds of millions more in indirect, independent expenditures in the presidential and U.S. Senate races.
- In 2013, the GOP lost the Virginia Governor’s race (plus Lt. Governor and Attorney General) because the Virginia GOP divided against each other over ideological purity.
Those losses in 2012 and 2013, along with the loss of respect of most Americans over the government shutdown, shook the Republican Party to its core. They had already lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections, and the population demographic trends were clearly trending Democratic.
Something had to change.
Republican National Committee Self-Assessment; a Wise Move
A major signal that the priorities of Republicans were shifting from arguing amongst themselves about economic and social policy to winning political campaigns was the Republican National Committee’s self-assessment released in March 2013 called the Growth & Opportunity Project. The NY Times called it “a blunt self-critique;” the Wall Street Journal said it was a “scathing self-analysis.” I call it, “wise.”
Sure, MSNBC’s frenzied jabberwonks scoffed at the Growth & Opportunity Project, and the GOP rank and file squirmed at the suggestion that they were contributing to their own demise. But by years end, following the anti-Republican public outrage over the federal government shutdown and after the loss of the Governor’s race in Virginia, the self-assessment began to make sense.
The Growth & Opportunity Project acknowledged GOP brand problems with young voters, women, Hispanics, Asians, African Americans and urban moderates, and made recommendations in the areas of messaging, demographics, campaign mechanics, third party groups, fundraising, campaign finance and the primary process. The report dared make statements like:
- “Democrats talk about people; Republicans talk about policy.”
- “Our standard should not be universal purity; it should be a more welcoming conservatism.”
- “America is changing demographically, and unless Republicans are able to grow our appeal the way GOP governors have done, those changes will tilt the playing field even more in the Democratic direction.”
The most politically valuable conclusion in the 100-page report is, “The party should be proud of its conservative principles, but just because someone disagrees with us on 20% of the issues, that does not mean we cannot come together on the rest of the issues where we do agree.”
That sentiment appears to be where most Republicans in North Carolina and around the nation are moving in 2014. The fact is, according to Gallup, social and economic issues are not the most important problems facing the country today. The most important problem is government. Here is the latest list from early April polling by Gallup:
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
- Dissatisfaction with government 20%
- Economy in general 16%
- Healthcare 15%
- Unemployment/Jobs 14%
Unfortunately for Republicans, they are credited with much of the “Dissatisfaction with government” because of their unwillingness to compromise on budget bills and their preoccupation with social issues that most Americans do not list as one of the “most important problems” facing the country. But most Republicans now know that, and know that their political future is dependent on getting beyond fighting each other over ideological purity rather than fighting Democrats for the heart and soul of the country.
North Carolina Democrats were really counting on social and economic Republican hardliners to divide and weaken the GOP this year. That’s because they lack the wherewithal to win against a united Republican Party. Unfortunately for Democrats, Republicans are not cooperating in 2014.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Forecasting 2014: Is the New GOP Honeybadger another Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal? April 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 8 12:13 pm If I had to choose only one bit of information for forecasting partisan fortunes in 2014, like the winner in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, it would be the
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Forecasting 2014: Is the New GOP Honeybadger another Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal?
April 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 8 12:13 pm
If I had to choose only one bit of information for forecasting partisan fortunes in 2014, like the winner in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, it would be the answer to the question: Is the new GOP Honeybadger just another Republican Orca, or is it a Democratic Narwhal?
Narwhal? Orca? Honeybadger?
Project Narwhal is Democratic President Obama’s 2012 $100 million “get out the vote” digital data-mining, voter contact and turnout tracking operation. Project Narwhal drove up the turnout of the most unlikely voters in 2012, like African Americans in Ohio and young people everywhere, giving Obama another four years in the White House.
Orca? Orca is Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 “get out the vote” app that was supposed to neutralize Obama’s Project Narwhal. Instead, Orca crashed. It turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. Never beta tested! In Boston, on Election Day, a Romney campaign aide told the Washington Times, “Somebody said Orca is lying on the beach with a harpoon in it.”
Conversely, read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, invested $100 million in technology and analytics software dubbed Project Narwhal. Messina hired a team of techies five times the size of the 2008 operations group. They shattered turnout records.
These data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.”
Project Narwhal helped to:
- Predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- Rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- Predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- Raise a record $1 billion war chest
- Register 3 million new voters and turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
Democrats’ $60 Million Bannock Street Project Coming to NC
On March 27, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced plans to hold their U.S. Senate majority by investing $60 million in a turnout operation named the Bannock Street Project, the “largest and most data-driven ground game ever.” On April 1, 2014, the Washington Post reported that North Carolina’s Sen. Kay Hagan is one of the Senate Democrats targeted for support by the Bannock Street Project. The Bannock Street Project is targeting 374,000 African-Americans and 500,000 women in North Carolina who voted in 2012 but not 2010.
An effective ground game is especially advantageous in a nonpresidential year like 2014.
Turnout in the last two non-presidential year primaries in North Carolina was 12% (2006) and 14% (2010). That suggests that 2014 Primary Election turnout will be about 13%. For emphasis: 87% will not vote. In the General Elections in 2006 and 2010, turnout was 37% and 44% respectively. That suggests that turnout in this fall’s general election will be about 40%.
Last year, 2013, New Jersey saw a record-low turnout of just 39.6% in the General Election. Even in Virginia last year, with hotly contested campaigns for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, only 42.7% of the Commonwealth’s voters bothered to vote.
Nationally, Republicans are well aware of the advantage that Democrats have with tech savvy communications and turnout tools. In February, Reince Priebus, RNC Chairman, announced the formation of Para Bellum Labs, an in-house technology incubator that combines data-analytics and digital marketing.
However, the most significant development by Republicans in the attempt to reestablish their once-held turnout advantage is named Honeybadger. Honeybadger, developed by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, was credited as the winning difference in the Florida Special Election won in March by Republican David Jolly.
With Honeybadger, the Jolly camp was able to track voters they had to target and discover what would motivate them to vote. “We had a lot of high-probability folks left, so if we were able to focus our message properly, we could create a surge,” said John Rogers, NRCC Deputy Political Director. “Once we switched to that script across the board, that’s when the surge started,” he said.
Narwhal? Orca? Honeybadger?
A Narwhal is an arctic whale that dives for food deeper than other marine mammals (2,600 feet, 15 times per day, with many dives reaching 4,900 feet). That’s what the Obama camp did with Project Narwhal. They dove deeper into the data than ever before and broke turnout records. That’s what the Democrats are planning with the Bannock Street Project in North Carolina.
An Orca is supposed to be a killer whale. But the Romney campaign geek squad turned the Orca into a playful performer at Sea World that jumps when it’s told and eats a diet prescribed by nutritionists and hand fed by trainers.
However, Republicans are now back on the right track with new tech-savvy turnout operations like Honeybadger. A honey badger is a savage carnivorous predator that eats porcupines and poisonous snakes, steals food from lions and raids beehives.
Thom Tillis will defeat U.S. Senator Kay Hagan and the GOP will win back the U.S. Senate if the GOP turnout operation is more like the Honeybadger than the Orca. Otherwise, Republicans are going to be whistling into the sunset on the Democrats’ Bannock Street.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
North Carolina’s May Madness Single-Elimination Political Primary Championship Begins April 24 March 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 7 12:13 pm March Madness NCAA basketball games and political campaigns in North Carolina are much alike. First, they are single elimination contests. Lose once and you are out. Second, the top seeds almost always win the
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North Carolina’s May Madness Single-Elimination Political Primary Championship Begins April 24
March 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 7 12:13 pm
March Madness NCAA basketball games and political campaigns in North Carolina are much alike. First, they are single elimination contests. Lose once and you are out. Second, the top seeds almost always win the final game. Sure, there are always a few Cinderella stories like last week’s “#14 Mercer Upsets #3 Duke,” or, “#6 NC State wins 1983 National Championship,” but the odds still favor the top seeds. Third, the madness. The madness of political attack TV ads.
North Carolina’s May Madness single elimination political primary championship begins on April 24, 2014, the opening day for One-Stop voting. It ends on May 6, 2014, Primary Election Day. And, as with the NCAA Division I tournament, everyone thinks they’re going to win.
There are 170 N.C. General Assembly seats up for grabs in 2014, 13 U.S. Congressional seats, 1 U.S. Senate seat, 4 N.C. Supreme Court seats and 3 seats on the N.C. Court of Appeals.
So, for those of you who are filling out your May Madness political primary championship bracket, and thinking about the November playoff races, here are a few pointers.
New Jersey and Virginia Signal Good Year for Incumbents
Virginia and New Jersey were the only two states in 2013 with gubernatorial and legislative elections. The political trends in those two states are almost always reliable predictors for North Carolina a year later. Here are the predictive trends from those states for North Carolina in 2014:
(1) Partisan power in the state legislature will stay as is; (2) Almost all incumbents will win their races; (3) Outside independent expenditures will favor the party in power; (4) Non-presidential year low turnout can be expected; (5) Conservative hard-liners out of favor in state-wide races.
As to legislative races, here are the key trends from New Jersey:
- In New Jersey, no Senate seats changed hands; only 1 Assembly member lost
- The party in power maintained control (24-16 Democratic Senate; 48-32 Democratic Assembly) despite Republican Gov. Christie’s 61.2% landslide victory
- A record-high $72 million was spent on legislative races in 2013, with about $20 million of that spent by outside independent expenditure groups
As to legislative races, here are the key trends from Virginia:
- In the 100-member Virginia House of Delegates, Republicans went from a 67-33 majority to a 68-32 majority (No Senate races in 2013; split 20-20 w/Dem Lt. Gov)
- Only two legislative incumbents lost in Virginia in 2013
- Only 14 of the 100 House of Delegates seats were won with a spread of less than 10%; only 8 under 4%. Arguably, only 8 of 100 races were competitive
Congressional and Legislative Races Will Not be Closes
Based on trends from 2013 and early indicators of likely advantages, like incumbency, fundraising and non-presidential election year turnout, here are a few big-picture forecasts for North Carolina:
- Because legislative and congressional districts are drawn so clearly in the favor of one party, almost all of those races will be over in May … and will not be close
- All congressional incumbents seeking another term will win their primary races and the general election by 10% or more, including Renee Ellmers, R-Harnett, 2nd Congressional District and Walter Jones, R-Pitt, 3rd Congressional District
- David Rouzer, R-Johnston County, will win the GOP primary in the 7th Congressional District by around 10% over Woody White, R-New Hanover
- Republicans will maintain their super majorities in the NC Senate and House
Tillis Likely GOP U.S. Senate Nominee with No Runoff
As to statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia, the overarching trend was the demand for leaders who placed a higher premium on getting things done over those who thought sticking to their beliefs was more important even if nothing gets done. In North Carolina’s U.S. Senate GOP primary race, that trend favors the election of Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, outright on May 6.
During his four years as NC House Speaker, Tillis lead dozens of successful legislative battles for conservative solutions to problems. Republicans will honor his accomplishments on May 6.
Two opponents seen early on as a threat, Greg Brannon, R-Wake, and Mark Harris, R-Mecklenburg, have fizzled out. Both are having trouble raising money, and Brannon has tripped himself up with legal problems. Tillis will win the primary handily, and is favored to win this fall.
Let the May Madness begin!
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Welcome to North Carolina, the Nation’s Most Perfectly Balanced Political Battlefield February 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 6 2:13 pm Gallup Study based on 178,527 Interviews Here is a startling political finding: North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than it is to Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama. That
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Welcome to North Carolina, the Nation’s Most Perfectly Balanced Political Battlefield
February 26, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 6 2:13 pm
Gallup Study based on 178,527 Interviews
Here is a startling political finding: North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than it is to Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama. That insightful conclusion about our partisan political identity is from the Gallup Daily Tracking service’s analysis of 178,527 U.S. adults from 2013 daily tracking polls.
There are certain questions that Gallup tracks daily by conducting 1,000 interviews of U.S. adults, 365 days a year. The questions deal with public opinion on issues like the economy, the direction of the country, the president’s job approval, the favorability of the political parties, and the number of Americans who consider themselves liberal, moderate and conservative.
By the end of calendar year 2013, the daily survey of 1,000 U.S. adults yielded a grand total of 178,527 respondents representing all demographic groups and political persuasions in all 50 states. The total included 5,801 North Carolinians, a highly reliable sample size for a statewide analysis, as most North Carolina polls use a sample size between 350 and 750 respondents.
North Carolina is Right in the Middle of the States plus D.C.
Here is another startling finding: Gallup’s annualized results of 2013 daily tracking shows that there are 25 states where it is better to be a Republican than North Carolina, and 24 states plus the District of Columbia where it is better to be a Democrat than North Carolina.
The safest place in America for Democrats is the District of Columbia, where 72% of the adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic and 14.3% are Republican/Lean Republican. The next best place in America for Democrats is New York, followed on the Top 10 Most Democratic states by Hawaii, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, California, Illinois and Delaware.
The safest place in America for Republicans is Wyoming, where 60.1% of adults are Republican/Lean Republican and only 20% are Democratic/Lean Democratic. Joining Wyoming among the Top 10 Most Republican states are Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, Alaska, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Oklahoma.
Where is North Carolina ranked on the list of state party leanings?
- North Carolina is right square in the middle of Gallup’s list of state party leanings
- 41.3% of North Carolina adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic; 41.9% are Republican/Lean Republican
- North Carolina is nestled in the middle of the list between Wisconsin and Ohio on the Democratic side; Arizona and Virginia on the Republican side
- North Carolina is closer in partisan identity to Minnesota, Maine and Oregon than Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama
Now you know why it’s so expensive to run for political office in North Carolina. Neither party has a partisan advantage.
Democrats Suffer Major Loss of Solid/Lean States; Republicans Gain
Gallup defines “Solid States” as those where one party has a 10% or greater advantage over the other party. “Leaning States” are those where one party has a 5% to 10% advantage over the other party. An analysis of the partisan trends in the states since 2008 shows a major decline in the number of states that are Solid/Leaning Democratic.
- In 2008, Democrats had 35 Solid/Lean Democratic states; in 2013, there were only 17
- In 2008, Democrats had net + 30 state advantage over Republicans; in 2013, that advantage had plummeted to + 3
- In 2008, Republicans had only 4 Solid States; in 2013 there were 12
Oh, by the way, Gallup defines “Competitive States” as those where the two parties are within 5% of each other. North Carolina, where 41.3% of adults are Democratic/Lean Democratic and 41.9% are Republican/Lean Republican, is among the most competitive states in the nation.
President Obama’s Low Job Approval Driving State Trends
As of today, Wednesday, February 26, 2013, Pres. Obama’s job approval is 43%, with 54% of Americans disapproving. In all of 2013, Pres. Obama’s average job approval was 46.5%. Here is a look at some of the interesting state facts from the 2013 Gallup study:
- Only 15 states + D.C. gave Pres. Obama a job approval score above his 46.5% average
- In North Carolina, Pres. Obama’s average job approval in 2013 was 43%
- North Carolina was the 24th most disapproving of Pres. Obama’s job performance (again, very close to the center of the ranking of all states on Obama’s job approval)
Here are results of recent statewide polls in North Carolina on the president’s job approval:
- On February 24, 2014, a new High Point University poll showed that 42% of North Carolina residents approve of Pres. Barack Obama’s job performance; 51% disapprove
- On February 13, 2014, a Public Policy Polling poll showed that 40% of North Carolina registered voters approved of Pres. Obama’s job performance; 53% disapproved
- On February 3, 2014, a Civitas poll of North Carolina registered voters showed that 45% approved of Pres. Obama’s job performance; 52% disapproved
Is North Carolina Conservative, Moderate or Liberal?
At this point we know that North Carolina is right square in the middle of all states when it comes to partisan leanings, and one place away from being in the middle of all states when it comes to presidential job approval. But, where do we stand on ideology?
Again, Gallup’s year end analysis of its daily tracking polls include the ranking of all states by ideology: conservative, moderate and liberal. Here are key findings from the analysis:
- Nationally, Americans are 36.8% Conservative, 36.6% Moderate and 22.2% Liberal
- North Carolina is 40% Conservative, 35.6% Moderate and 19% Liberal
- North Carolina is the 24th most conservative state, right near the middle
- All Southern states, except Virginia and Florida, are more conservative than NC
The number of Americans who say they are “Moderate” is 36.6%. North Carolina is very close to the national average at 35.6%.
The number of Americans who say they are “Liberal” is 22.2%. North Carolina was fairly close to the national average in 2013 with 19% of our adults stating that they are liberal.
A more recent look at the ideology of our state can be seen in a Civitas survey of North Carolina registered general election voters conducted January 23; 25-26, 2014. Results:
- Conservative 46% (Very Conservative 23%; Somewhat Conservative 23%)
- Moderate 29%
- Liberal 20% (Very Liberal 8%; Somewhat Liberal 12%)
- 5% Don’t Know
Looking only at North Carolina’s 46% who said they are Conservative: 54% said they are Republican; 22% said they are Democratic and 22% said they are Independent/Unaffiliated.
Looking only at North Carolina’s 29% who said they are Moderate: 23% said they are Republican 42% said they are Democrat and 33% said they are Independent/Unaffiliated.
Looking only at North Carolina’s 20% who said they are Liberal: 83% said they are Democrat; 7% say Republican and 10% say Independent/Unaffiliated.
So, are we conservative, moderate or liberal? Are we a Republican red state or a Democratic blue state? My research shows that whether you were talking about party or ideology, North Carolina is a perfectly balanced state.
North Carolina is the most perfectly balanced political battlefield in America.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis, Editor
Lessons from Last Two Presidential Second-Term, Midterm Elections are Keys for GOP Success in 2014 February 13, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 5 10:13 am If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war This is the midterm election year of President Obama’s second term, which by all accounts should be
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Lessons from Last Two Presidential Second-Term, Midterm Elections are Keys for GOP Success in 2014
February 13, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 5 10:13 am
If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war
This is the midterm election year of President Obama’s second term, which by all accounts should be a favorable year for North Carolina Republicans. After all, the party in the White House has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and four seats in the U.S. Senate since the Woodrow Wilson administration early in the 20th century.
But not so fast.
If you take a look at the midterm elections during the second term of the last two presidents you will discover that they were not very favorable for North Carolina Republicans. Those two election years, 1998 and 2006, were years in which the GOP learned the hard way that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of Democrats. That strategic misjudgment could easily by repeated in 2014 if the GOP spends the year attacking Democrats on ObamaCare.
In 1998, the second term midterm elections of sex scandal-plagued Democratic President Bill Clinton, the state GOP suffered the loss of the majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives and lost Lauch Faircloth’s U.S. Senate seat to upstart John Edwards. At the federal level, Democrats actually gained five U.S. House seats and did not lose any Senate seats.
How could the GOP possibly lose in 1998?
In the fall of 1998, Republicans here in North Carolina and around the country decided to bring down Democrats by reminding voters of the affair between President Clinton and a 21-year-old White House intern named Monica Lewinsky. GOP political strategists assumed in 1998 that the American people could be duped into believing that Republicans had greater personal character qualities than Democrats. They piled on the attack ads. It backfired.
On December 19, 1998, after a year of Congressional investigations and testimony riddled with salacious detail, the Republican-controlled U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton. The next day, December 20, 1998, Clinton’s approval rating jumped ten points to 73%, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, an all-time high for the embattled president.
The day after the Republican-controlled U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton, his approval rating jumped higher than President Ronald Reagan’s highest rating. At the same time, the number of Americans with a favorable view of the Republican Party fell 10 points.
After the dust settled in November 1998, Democrats had won an upset comeback victory by not losing what they had and by making surprise gains. For the first time since 1934, the party in the White House picked up Congressional seats during a mid-term election year.
Again, here in North Carolina, U.S. Senator Lauch Faircloth, R-Sampson County, lost to political novice John Edwards, D-Moore/Wake County, and the GOP lost the majority party advantage in the North Carolina House, giving the Democrats all of the power over the state budget.
Important: Republicans won their base by beating Clinton down, but they lost the middle American voter. If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war.
If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war
Fast forward to 2006, the midterm elections during Republican President George Bush’s second term. Same disastrous results for the GOP for the same reason. All year the Democratic Speaker of the North Carolina House, Jim Black from Matthews, had been embroiled in scandalous allegations of bribery schemes, public corruption, buying votes with $50,000 cash exchanged in a bathroom at the IHOP in Salisbury.
Slam dunk, right?
Well, at the same time North Carolina Republicans were tying Democrats to Speaker Black, the party of family values and fiscal integrity in Washington, DC was embroiled in fraud and sex scandals of their own. And, they were on a liberal spending binge.
- In years 2005 and 2006, the GOP-led Congress approved 23,960 earmarks costing $56.3 billion, and ran up a $371 billion budget deficit.
- Republicans brought down by fraud or inappropriate sexual behavior during this time include Rep. Tom Delay, Rep. Tom Foley, Sen. Larry Craig, Sen. David Vitter, Rep. “Duke” Cunningham, Sen. Ted Stevens, “Scooter” Libby and Jack Abramoff.
In 2006, Republicans lost the majority in the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, the majority of the governors and the majority of state legislatures in great part due to a scandal-plagued Republican Congress that broke all records for pork barrel spending.
Here in North Carolina, Republicans lost six-term U.S. Congressman Charles Taylor from Transylvania County, contributing to the Democratic takeover of the U.S. House.
At the state level, Republicans lost three out of four North Carolina Supreme Court races in 2006 (Democrats Sarah Parker, Patricia Timmons-Goodson and Robin Hudson won), and lost ground in both the state House and Senate despite the year-long scandal involving Speaker Black.
Important: Congressional Republicans humored the middle with liberal spending but lost their base voter. If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war.
You have to win both your base and the middle to win the war
State Republicans should have no problem holding their base in 2014. After all, they can boast a long list of conservative accomplishments: personal and corporate tax cuts, regulatory reform, unemployment insurance rate cuts, managing a $3.5 billion unemployment debt crisis without raising taxes, cutting down on frivolous lawsuits, the most significant tax reform in 80 years, cutting the unemployment rate to under 7%, and elections reform like the photo ID law.
With their record of accomplishments, North Carolina Republicans have all of the advantages for winning elections in 2014 … except one: the middle voters. You reach the middle voters by touting your accomplishments and by offering solutions to problems of the day.
Gallup’s most recent national survey (Jan 5-8, 2014) on the “Most Important Problem Facing the U.S.” shows that the #1 concern of American voters is “Dissatisfaction with government/poor leadership.” The other top problems are “Economy in general,” “Unemployment/Jobs,” and “High cost of healthcare.”
You can satisfy the #1 concern of voters (Government leadership) by offering solutions to their concerns about jobs and the economy; unemployment, healthcare … and in North Carolina, education.
The lessons from the last two presidential second-term, midterm elections are the keys for GOP success in 2014. If you win your base, but lose the middle, you lose the war. If you win the middle voters, but lose your base voter, you lose the war.
You have to win both your base and the middle to win the war.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis, Editor
January 31, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 4 9:13 am The January 16, 2014 John Davis Political Report, How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover, proffered the observation that the 2013 shutdown fiasco was so cataclysmic for Republicans that it sparked the political will to push
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January 31, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 4 9:13 am
The January 16, 2014 John Davis Political Report, How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover, proffered the observation that the 2013 shutdown fiasco was so cataclysmic for Republicans that it sparked the political will to push back against Tea Party obstructionists and begin to make deals.
Yesterday, January 30, 2014, Republican House Speaker John Boehner indicated a shift in priorities when he told reporters at the GOP’s Legislative Retreat in Eastern Maryland, “It’s important that we show the American people we’re not just the opposition party, we’re actually the alternative party.” As an example, he announced “Standards for Immigration Reform” that include, “It is time to provide an opportunity for legal residence and citizenship for those who were brought to this country as children through no fault of their own, those who know no other place as home.”
January has seen numerous surprise moves by Republican leaders that signal a shift in priorities from stonewalling to offering alternatives and deal making; a shift to winning elections.
January 15, 2014, Tea Party groups like FreedomWorks and Heritage Action were dismayed when 87 House Republicans broke ranks and voted for a bipartisan compromise $1.1 trillion spending bill that passed the U.S. House by a whopping 359-67.
Earlier that same day, here in North Carolina, Republican Governor Pat McCrory greeted Democratic President Barack Obama warmly on the tarmac at Raleigh-Durham International Airport as he arrived for an announcement of a new manufacturing innovation institute at NC State. McCrory pitched his concerns about food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment and energy to the president, signaling an interest in negotiating with the liberal Democratic president on behalf of the state.
McCrory had already stunned conservative hard-liners earlier that week by praising former Democratic Governor Jim Hunt at the Hunt Education Institute’s Holshouser Legislators Retreat, saying: “Jim Hunt is a hero of mine, he’s a mentor of mine….he’s been a great adviser to me.”
The day after the president’s visit, January 16, 2014, another surprise. An overwhelming majority 76 U.S. Senators, including 17 Republicans, voted for the bipartisan compromise spending bill. The bill keeps government operations funded until September 30, 2014, and nixes another government shutdown fiasco until then.
Senator Ted Cruz, the Tea Party leader most responsible for the shutdown three months earlier, tried to unite his fellow Senators behind amendments aimed at defunding the Affordable Care Act. They had no stomach for another shutdown crisis. Cruz was ignored.
Fox News Alumnus Glenn Beck Admits Tearing Country Apart
Then, on January 21, 2014, perhaps the biggest surprise of all January Republican surprises.
Glenn Beck, former Fox News commentator with a reputation for irrational diatribes and hateful commentary, said in an interview with Fox News host Megyn Kelly, “I made an awful lot of mistakes, and I wish I could go back and be more uniting in my language. Because I think I played a role unfortunately in helping tear the country apart. And it’s not who we are. I didn’t realize how really fragile the people were. I thought we were kind of a little more in it together.
And now I look back and I realize if we could have talked about the uniting principles a little more, instead of just the problems, I think I would look back on it a little more fondly.”
Oh my goodness. Glenn Beck admitting on Fox News that his uncivil commentary helped tear the country apart. Admitting that words can hurt your party’s brand among voters in the middle. A clear sign of shifting priorities among Republicans.
But then, a setback. On January 23, 2014, during the Republican National Committee’s Winter Meeting luncheon, former Arkansas Governor and presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee referred to a woman’s libido in comments about birth control. All hell broke loose. The theme of the meeting, “Building to Victory,” was quickly overshadowed by non-stop news coverage of Huckabee’s statement. Overshadowed by words that tear the country apart.
Huckabee’s comment was Rush Limbaugh all over again, calling a college student a “slut” because she testified on behalf of government funded birth control. It was Missouri GOP U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin all over again, claiming that victims of “legitimate rape” rarely get pregnant. It was Indiana GOP U.S. Senate candidate Richard Mourdock suggesting that pregnancies resulting from rape are part of God’s plan. Words that lose elections.
Wisely, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus spoke in his closing remarks on January 24, 2014, of the importance of being careful about what you say and how you say it. “As we look to grow the ranks of our party,” said Priebus, “we must all be very conscious of the tone and choice of words we use to communicate those policies effectively.”
Priebus, the architect of the GOP’s self-assessment a year ago, showing restraint. A leadership quality necessary to keep the party together. To stay focused on winning election in 2014.
Another Republican surprise during the month of January surprises came on Saturday, January 25, 2014, when Governor Pat McCrory said in a statement from his office that he did not think the state should appeal a federal judge’s ruling striking down a key provision of abortion legislation passed by the Republican General Assembly before McCrory took office.
Then came Thursday, January 30, 2014, and another big surprise. The Republican-led U.S. House passed a compromise farm bill over the objections of Tea Party conservatives 251-to-166. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas, an Oklahoma Republican, called the deal “a miracle” after three years of running into conservative roadblocks at every turn.
A miracle indeed. A month of miracles. A month of clear and convincing evidence last year’s shutdown debacle caused state and national GOP leaders to shift their priorities from being just the opposition party to being the alternative party willing to deal; from gridlock to winning elections.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover January 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 3 7:13 pm Shutdown hurt Republicans ten times more than it hurt Democrats The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year
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How the GOP 2013 Shutdown Fiasco became the Startup of Corrective Action for a 2014 Senate Takeover
January 16, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 3 7:13 pm
Shutdown hurt Republicans ten times more than it hurt Democrats
The GOP’s failure to take back the White House and U.S. Senate in 2012 sparked a year of bitter feuding. Establishment conservatives and Tea Party insurgents blamed each other for destroying yet another opportunity to right the nation’s ship. But, then came October 1, 2013; the day of the government shutdown. A fiasco that damaged Republicans so badly that it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate in 2014.
Granted, American voters blamed everyone associated with the shutdown, even dubbing the 113th Congress the “Worst Congress in History.” A Democrat-led Senate; Republican-led House. According to Gallup, only 5% of Democrats approved of the job Congress was doing in October 2013; only 13% of Independents and 15% of Republicans approved.
But most of all, voters blamed the Republican Party. Ten times more than the Democrats.
Two weeks after the shutdown, October 25-28, 2013, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal collaborated on a national bipartisan survey of voter opinion of congressional action on the budget debate. Two of the country’s most respected polling firms, Peter D. Hart Research Associates, a Democratic firm, and a Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, were hired to lead the project.
Voter replies to Question 13 disclosed why the GOP shutdown hurt Republicans the most:
Question 13: Do you want [Democratic and Republican] leaders in the House and Senate to make compromises to gain consensus on the current budget debate, or do you want them to stick to their positions even if it means not being able to gain consensus on the budget?
- 71% of Independents said “Make Compromises;” 18% said “Stick to Positions”
- 68% of Democrats said “Make Compromises;” 23% said “Stick to Positions”
- 46% of Republicans said “Make Compromises;” 47% said “Stick to Positions”
Overwhelmingly, the survey showed that Independent voters (4-to-1) and Democrats (3-to-1) favored “Make Compromises.” Even half of the Republicans said “Make Compromises.”
Despite Republican attempts to argue that it was the Democrats who were culpable of irresponsible recalcitrance, the NBC News/The Wall Street Journal national bipartisan survey showed that voters saw the GOP as the party least willing to make compromises.
Question 5: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups. I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.
| Public Figures and Groups Gallup October 25-28, 2013 |
Total Positive |
Total Negative |
||
| The Democratic Party |
37% |
40% |
||
| Barack Obama |
41% |
45% |
||
| Ted Cruz |
19% |
30% |
||
| Mitch McConnell |
11% |
28% |
||
| Harry Reid |
17% |
34% |
||
| The Tea Party Movement |
23% |
47% |
||
| John Boehner |
17% |
43% |
||
| The Republican Party |
22% |
53% |
||
There you have it. The Democratic Party’s net positive (37%) over negative (40%) is a negative 3%. The Republican Party’s net positive (22%) over negative (53%) is a negative 31%.
Bottom line: the shutdown hurt Republicans ten times more than it hurt Democrats.
The Tea Party Gets Tea Partied
When voters were asked in the NBC News/The Wall Street Journal survey if they supported the Tea Party, 70% of the respondents said “No,” only 22% said “Yes.” Unfortunately for Ken Cuccinelli, Tea Party candidate for Governor of Virginia, anti-Tea Party sentiment was peaking with Election Day only a week away. On November 6, 2013, he lost.
Establishment Republicans in Virginia had never warmed up to Cuccinelli. He was off the charts to the right on social and economic issues. Many, along with numerous state and national business groups, chose not to back the Republican nominee with checks. The RNC gave only a third of what they had given to Governor Bob McDonald in 2009. The U.S. Chamber stayed out.
The Tea Party, long known for attacking the Republican establishment, got Tea Partied. But it didn’t stop in Virginia. The anti-Tea Party defiance continued for the remainder of 2013.
- Gov. Chris Christie proved on November 6 that a Republican could win in a Democrat-friendly state like New Jersey without the help of the Tea Party
- In December, a Tea Party candidate for Congress in Alabama was defeated by a business-backed candidate who received $200,000 from the U.S. Chamber
- U.S House Speaker Boehner thumbed his nose at the Tea Party in December when they criticized the bipartisan budget deal co-authored by GOP Rep. Paul Ryan
- “Frankly, I just think they’ve lost all credibility,” Boehner told reporters
- 87 House Republicans joined the Democrats in support of the budget compromise
- 27 Senate Republicans voted with Senate Democrats to pass the compromise bill
The damage to Republicans caused by the Tea Party-led 2013 government shutdown helped most Republicans realize that even though government is the cause of many problems, the needs of many Americans are too great to ignore the importance of finding effective compromise solutions.
Ironically, the 2013 government shutdown fiasco, a divisive event that could have led to another missed opportunity to right the nation’s ship, instead galvanized most Republicans against the Tea Party brand of leadership. The government shutdown caused most American voters, Democrats (71%), Independents (68%) and Republicans (46%), to demand a new model of leadership in our nation’s capital; a model that values compromise over sticking to beliefs.
The latest evidence that Americans are uniting against the Tea Party was seen on January 15, 2014, when the U.S. House voted 359-67 for a $1.1 trillion spending bill. The bill was a bipartisan agreement, much to the dismay of Tea Party groups like FreedomWorks and Heritage Action.
The 2013 shutdown fiasco could have been the death knell for Republican political dreams. Instead, it became the startup of corrective action for a GOP U.S. Senate takeover in 2014.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan January 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 2 2:13 pm NOTE: This report on North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race assumes that incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan will face Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House. I am
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North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race: Numbers Say Republican Thom Tillis is Likely to Upset Kay Hagan
January 10, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 2 2:13 pm
NOTE: This report on North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race assumes that incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan will face Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House.
I am a political numbers junkie with no personal or professional relationship with the likely candidates in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, Senator Kay Hagan, a Democrat, and Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the House. In making my determination that Tillis is likely to upset Hagan, I did not talk to the candidates or their campaign professionals. I listened only to facts.
For starters:
- No North Carolina Democrat has won a second term in the U.S. Senate since 1968
- Mid-term elections do not favor the party in the White House, Democrats
- The NC Democratic Party is in shambles; the GOP has power and strong leaders
- Both candidates are equally smart, competitive and capable of raising money
- Polls show the race tied with Hagan at 44% and Tillis at 42%
- For every “extreme right” attack ad that Hagan or her super PACs run against Tillis, he and his super PACs can counter with equally damaging “extreme left” attack ads
- Hagan will be on the defensive throughout 2014 for telling PolitiFact’s 2013 Lie of the Year, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.”
Thanks to Project Vote Smart, a non-partisan source of legislative voting records, there are literally hundreds of evaluations of Senator Kay Hagan’s votes in the Senate. The evaluations I trust the most are those done by the National Journal, a non-partisan publication that has rated members of Congress for four decades. Hagan’s “Composite Conservative Score” is 44.7%; her “Composite Liberal Score” is 55.3%.
A comparative sample of evaluations from Project Vote Smart shows the stark ideological divide between the two candidates. Here are a few evaluations of Sen. Kay Hagan:
- Planned Parenthood (Abortion) 2013 Rating 100%
- American Civil Liberties Union of NC 2011 Rating 75%
- NC League of Conservation Voters 2012 Rating 84%
- Nat’l Fed of Independent Business 2011 Rating 37%
- National Rifle Association 2008 Rating 0%
Here are Speaker Thom Tillis’ evaluations on the same issues:
- Planned Parenthood (Abortion) 2011 Rating 0%
- American Civil Liberties Union of NC 2011 Rating 0%
- NC League of Conservation Voters 2013 Rating 0%
- Nat’l Fed of Independent Business 2010 Rating 100%
- National Rifle Association 2012 Rating 100%
What Democrats see as “extreme” legislative accomplishments, in fact, give Tillis the firepower to assure Republicans of his conservative bona fides and argue for a likely primary win.
Democrats’ legislative nightmare in 2013 is a Republican dream in 2014
The entire 20th Century ticked by with North Carolina Republicans never once having the state government power to out-muscle the Democrats on the laws of the day. Only twice in the 20th Century did the GOP have the governor’s mansion. Governors Jim Holshouser (1973-1977) and Jim Martin (1985-1993) were obstructed at every turn by solid Democratic majorities in the state Senate and House with no veto power to stop them from having their way.
Only one North Carolina Republican in the 20th Century held the House Speaker’s gavel, but Harold Brubaker (1995-1999) was obstructed at every turn by a powerful Senate Democratic caucus and Democratic Governor Jim Hunt (1977-1985; 1993-2001), a shrewd governor with a partisan passion to defeat all things Republican.
But then came the third Wednesday after the second Monday in January 2011, the day fixed by law for the convening of the General Assembly. A Republican Senate majority. A Republican House majority. A weak Democratic governor. When the dust settled at the end of the session, there were 11 veto overrides. Veto overrides that will be remembered on Tuesday, May 6, 2014.
Legislative accomplishments that conservative legends are made of. Abortion. Death penalty. Redistricting. Marriage. Taxes. Teachers union. Fracking. All red meat issues for the Republican primary faithful reveling in the successes of a Republican House and Senate.
Then came the third Wednesday after the second Monday in January 2013. Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House. Republican Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger. Republican Governor Pat McCrory. Republicans ran roughshod over the Democrats; they treated them as if they were unworthy of notice. Just as the Democrats had always treated them.
Republicans had their way with the laws of the day. Legislative accomplishments that legends are made of. Firearms. Medicaid. Abortions. Taxes. Charter schools. Regulations. Consolidation. Reorganization. Election laws. Cutting programs and services. Republican dreams come true.
Hagan cannot count on a divided Republican Party
I am sure that Kay Hagan’s camp is hoping for feuding super-rich Republicans with their super PACs to divide into three ideological camps in the fight for the GOP nomination, thereby weakening the ultimate victor. And granted, the divisions are real and have begun.
Many state and national establishment Republicans are lining up behind Tillis, like U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and North Carolina Senator Richard Burr. He also has the backing of Karl Rove and his super PAC empire.
Two other potentially viable contenders for the GOP nod, Dr. Greg Brannon, a Cary OB/GYN, and Rev. Mark Harris, a Charlotte Baptist preacher, are attracting their own big names.
Brannon, a Tea Party and pro-life activist, has the backing of national Tea Party rising star Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, as well as conservative RedState blogger Erick Erickson. Harris, former head of the Baptist State Convention, stands to benefit from his leadership role in the 2012 constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in North Carolina. He has the backing of Robin Hayes, former GOP congressman and state party chairman. Triad area radio host Bill Flynn and Wilkes County nurse practitioner Heather Grant are also running.
Of course, the great hope of Brannon/Harris/Flynn/Grant is to force a primary runoff by ganging up on Tillis with enough outside super PAC attack ads that keep his vote below 40%. However, the odds are greater that they will splinter the hard right conservatives and Tillis will parlay a sizable cash and organizational advantage into a primary victory on May 6, 2014.
Tillis’ legislative accomplishments are such that it will simply be too difficult for any Republican to get very far with an attempt to discredit his commitment to the conservative cause. In other words, even his on primary detractors will not likely stay divided against him for long. They want to defeat Hagan.
The Shutdown last December taught most Republicans two important lessons: one, bitter ideological divisions hurt them more than the Democrats; two, just saying no without an alternative proposal is not acceptable to most Americans as leadership.
A growing number of Republicans now know that they must get together on alternatives to just saying no. Otherwise, their brand will continue to be seen as callously insensitive to those who are struggling in the face of the new global economy. I suspect that North Carolina’s Republicans leaders, like Tillis, are smart enough to see that handwriting on the wall.
So, if it comes down to a race between Sen. Kay Hagan and Speaker Thom Tillis, it is highly likely that the two equally capable and equally funded combatants will be surrounded by equally savvy consultants and have the backing of equally malicious super PACs.
Which brings me back to those facts and numbers in the first paragraph, and why I believe that Thom Tillis is likely to upset Kay Hagan in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.
– End –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor