Since 2000, there have been 40 statewide General Election races in North Carolina that came down to a male candidate vs a female candidate. Women won 31 of those 40 races, or 77.5%.
More significant, 24 of those 31 female winners were Democratic women. Only 7 were Republicans. Democratic women have defeated Republican men in 80% of statewide matchups since 2000.
Top 10 Keys for NC Democratic Political Recovery
Rule #5: There is Gold to be Mined among Professional Women for the Next Generation of Candidates and Campaign Leaders
July 30, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 15 10:13 am
Democratic Women Defeated GOP Men in 80% of Statewide Matchups
With the extinction of the once-powerful base of rural “Yellow Dog Democrats,” and the emergence of politically dominant urban voters, the state Democratic Party must shift its political gold mining operations to metropolitan regions for the next generation of candidates and campaign leaders.
Within these friendly geographical areas, Democrats must focus their political leadership gold mining operations on those constituencies where they are most likely to be successful.
This is where professional women come in. If I were advising Democrats in North Carolina on how to recover politically, I would tell them that their best hope is women. Specifically, professional women.
Democrats need strong candidates. Professional women. Democrats need campaign money. Professional women. Democrats need business leaders. Professional women. Democrats need political balance. Professional women. Democrats need strength of resolve. Professional women.
Here in North Carolina, women are registered in greater numbers than men. Women turn out to vote in higher percentages than men. Women favor Democrats over Republicans more often than not. The public policy priorities of women are more likely supported by Democrats. And, Democratic women have a well-established record of success for winning political campaigns against Republican men.
Since 2000, there have been 40 statewide General Election races in North Carolina that came down to a male candidate vs a female candidate. Women won 31 of those 40 races, or 77.5%.
More significant, 24 of those 31 female winners were Democratic women. Only 7 were Republicans. Democratic women have defeated Republican men in 80% of statewide matchups since 2000.
This report is the fifth in a 10-part series on the keys to political recovery for North Carolina Democrats. As with the previous series on the keys to Republican political longevity, no state legislator or legislative staff member was interviewed. All interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity. The rules thus far are:
- Rule #1: If You want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, You have to Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate.
- Rule #2: It’s All About Who Does the Asking; Get the Right Person to Ask the Right Person to do the Right Task.
- Rule #3 Moral Mondays – A Therapeutic Dose of Political Energy Restoring Rhythm to the Heart of the Democratic Party.
- Rule #4: Investors will Return to the Party of Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas when it has Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas.
Today I am adding Rule #5: There is Gold to be Mined among Professional Women for the Next Generation of Candidates and Campaign Leaders.
Women Nearing Parity in the Professions
With the enactment of Title IX in 1972, a law prohibiting gender discrimination in federally supported education programs and activities, female students have gone from having 17% fewer university degrees than men to having 25% more university degrees. According to the US Census Bureau:
- In 1960, 65.8% of all university degrees were awarded to men
- In 2009, only 41.3% of all university degrees were awarded to men.
- In 2009, 916,000 bachelor’s degrees were earned by women; 685,000 earned by men
Often referred to as the Emancipation Proclamation for women, Title IX has also had a great influence on the number of women with professional degrees from American universities. Consider these facts:
- In 1960, 51,000 master’s degrees were awarded to men; 24,000 to women
- In 2009, women received 397,000 master’s degrees; men 260,000
- In 2011, women earned almost 60% of all Masters degrees
- In 1960, 9,000 doctoral degrees were awarded to men; 1,000 to women
- In 2009, 35,000 doctoral degrees were awarded to women; 32,000 to men
- In 2010, 51.9% of those who earned doctoral degrees were women
- In 2011, women earned 32,970 of the doctoral degrees (52.5% of the total)
- 48.3% (16,838) of medical degrees awarded in the US in 2009-10 were earned by women
Thanks to the dramatic growth of women in the professions, women now make up about 1/3 of all doctors and lawyers in America, a number that will continue to grow as women make up half of the law school and medical school student bodies in American universities.
Female doctors rarely run for public office in North Carolina. However, they are financially capable of helping fund political committees. Female attorneys are the superstars of Democratic campaigners.
Female attorneys regularly run for statewide offices, including the Council of State races, Supreme Court and Court of Appeals. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is an attorney. So is US Senator Kay Hagan. Four of the seven members of the Supreme Court of North Carolina are female attorneys, including the Chief Justice (three of the four are Democrats), and six of the fifteen members of the North Carolina Court of Appeals are female attorneys (four of the six are Democrats).
All were elected in statewide campaigns.
Professional Women are Angry with Republicans in Raleigh
Today’s news is dominated by stories of professional women who are up in arms over legislative action taken by Republicans in Raleigh during the 2013 session. It is apparent in news stories about thousands of teachers among the largest crowd to attend Moral Monday protests or news about pro-choice activists holding vigil in front of the governor’s mansion, that a lot of women are mad at Republicans.
Why are so many professional women incensed by Republican legislative action in the 2013 session? Think about professions other than doctors and lawyers whose budgets got axed by Republicans.
The American Enterprise Institute published a report in September of 2012 showing doctoral and master’s degrees awarded in 2011 by fields of study and gender. Here are the key findings:
- 71.3% of Health Sciences doctoral degrees went to women
- 68.8% of Education doctoral degrees went to women
- 62.6% of Social, Behavioral Sciences doctoral degrees went to women
- 60% of Public Administration doctoral degrees went to women
Here are the master’s degrees awarded in 2011 by field of study and gender:
- 81.3% of Health Sciences master’s degrees went to women
- 76.8% of Education master’s degrees went to women
- 76.5% of Public Administration master’s degrees went to women
- 62.7% of Social, Behavioral Sciences master’s degrees went to women
Education. Healthcare. Public services. Women play key leadership roles in these professions. Women depend on these professions for their livelihood.
Whose budgets got axed?
Odds are pretty good that many professional women whose programs have lost funding due to budget cuts will be motivated to run in 2014 for the General Assembly. Others will be motivated to help candidates raise money or contribute to an independent expenditure campaign fund to help Democrats.
Ann Goodnight, long-time education advocate and wife of SAS CEO Jim Goodnight, writes in today’s News & Observer, “I am left stunned by the glaring lack of support for public education.” The Goodnights are among the wealthiest people in the world. She could fund a Super PAC at any level.
But what can be accomplished by Democrats in 2014 when Republicans have all of the advantages?
2014 Goals: Protect Hagan, Seize the Courts, Stop the Super Majority
The biggest prize for Democrats in 2014 is the U.S. Senate seat featuring incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan from Greensboro. Hagan is a strong candidate, well-liked by the U.S. Senate establishment. This translates into national financial resources which can be used for ground game operations like voter registration and turnout.
The second biggest prize for Democrats in 2014 is the state Supreme Court, where four of seven seats are up for grabs including that of the Chief Justice. There are many seasoned court candidates among Democratic women, and many more female attorneys biding their time for such an opportunity.
Finally, a third prize for Democrats in 2014 would be taking away the super majority status from either the state House or the Senate. You may not be able to advance the Democratic Party’s agenda without a majority in the state Senate and House, but you can thwart some of the Republican Party’s agenda if you take away the veto-proof super majority.
The House is more vulnerable, in part because Speaker Thom Tillis, one of the best political warfare generals around, is abandoning the legislative battlefield for his US Senate race against Kay Hagan. House seats are also more vulnerable to an underdog challenger because they are less expensive.
North Carolina Senate races would not be a good bet for cash-strapped Democrats in 2014. Competitive state Senate races are now $1 million campaigns and as sophisticated as congressional races.
The big break for the North Carolina Democratic Party could come as early as 2016 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for president. Clinton’s candidacy would likely result in record high volunteerism and turnout of women in America just like Barack Obama’s presidential nomination fueled record high volunteerism and turnout of African Americans in 2008 and 2012.
In my mind, 2016 could be the first opportunity for Democrats to win the majority in the North Carolina House and make headway towards taking back the North Carolina Senate four years later in 2020.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party must work towards the ideological balance needed to appeal to persuadable independent voters. Moral Monday protesters are important voices for the state Democratic Party, a life-restoring spark of political passion and energy. However, political recovery will require leaders who can raise money and appeal to moderate voters and business people.
Democrats need strong candidates. Professional women. Democrats need campaign money. Professional women. Democrats need business leaders. Professional women. Democrats need political balance. Professional women. Democrats need strength of resolve. Professional women.
Rule #5: There is Gold to be Mined among Professional Women for the Next Generation of Candidates and Campaign Leaders.
– END –
Note: I wish to thank Madison McLawhorn, a Senior Communications major at North Carolina State University, for the excellent work she is doing as my student intern. Madison, from Winterville, is responsible for much of the research for this report, including interviews with professional women and the numbers on women in the professions.
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report! 
John N. Davis, Editor
SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription only $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing at the SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription rate of only $199. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here
Top 10 Keys for NC Democratic Political Recovery Rule #4: Investors will Return to the Party of Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas when it has Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas July 15, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 14 9:13 am During the past month or so, I have had the pleasure of talking with many people
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Top 10 Keys for NC Democratic Political Recovery
Rule #4: Investors will Return to the Party of Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas when it has Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas
July 15, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 14 9:13 am
During the past month or so, I have had the pleasure of talking with many people of substantial financial means who have a history of investing in North Carolina Democrats. Ultimately, the conversation comes around to my question: “What will it take for you to write the check to help the party recover?” The answer is always the same: “Who do I give it to?” Then silence. Loud silence.
North Carolina Democrats need investors. They need investors because you can’t govern if you don’t win political races. Nine out of ten times the candidates with the most money win.
When the 2014 races roll around, what the New York Times wrote in July, 2013 about the “grotesque damage” the Republicans are doing in our state or what the Moral Monday protestors shouted in 2013 will be irrelevant if the GOP has a $3-to-$1 campaign spending advantage. TV ads and mailings in legislative races touting how they, the Republicans, rescued our state from Democrats will hold sway.
So, why isn’t the political investment community in a relatively progressive state like North Carolina willing to invest in the party that considers itself the party of bold, visionary leaders and ideas?
First, there is the obvious “the party doesn’t have any power” reason. Most political money is invested by those who want something in order to buy access to state government leaders who can help them.
But more important than access is this: Political investors inclined to help Democrats are struggling with the disconcerting sense that there is a missing generation of bold, visionary leaders. Others say Democrats have become the party of stale, old ideas; the party hanging on to half-century-old priorities. The party in denial about failed programs. The anti-business party.
Who are the bold, visionary leaders of today’s Democrats? What are the bold, visionary ideas?
This is the fourth in a 10-part series on the keys to political recovery for North Carolina Democrats. As with the previous series on the keys to Republican political longevity, no state legislator or legislative staff member was interviewed. All interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity. The rules thus far are:
- Rule #1: If You want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, You have to Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate.
- Rule #2: It’s All About Who Does the Asking; Get the right person to ask the right person to do the right task.
- Rule #3 Moral Mondays – A Therapeutic Dose of Political Energy Restoring Rhythm to the Heart of the Democratic Party.
Today I am adding Rule #4: Investors will Return to the Party of Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas when it has Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas.
Investors Back Leaders of Good Ideas, Not Good Ideas Alone
Good ideas are a dime a dozen. Ask any person of means how many solicitations they get each year and they will tell you that they would literally go bankrupt if they funded every good idea opportunity.
What investors look for is the competence and trustworthiness of the person responsible for making sure the good idea succeeds. They know that the key to the success of good ideas is leadership, not the ideas.
Jim Hunt, North Carolina’s only four-term governor (1977–1985; 1993–2001) is the quintessential bold, visionary Democrat. He hails from the Wilson County farming community of Rock Ridge.
Hunt’s record of accomplishment is so exceptional that he is recognized worldwide in the fields of education and technology-based economic development. The Saturday Evening Post once suggested if there were a Mount Rushmore for governors, Jim Hunt would be one of the faces carved in stone.
Gary Pearce, lifelong political adviser to Hunt and author of Jim Hunt, A Biography, writes that Hunt’s many political and legislative successes during the past four decades are due to his appreciation for free market economics and his solid reputation with private sector business leaders.
Recalling early years of working with business leaders, Hunt told Pearce, “When business people spoke, average citizens listen to them.” “People just trusted them,” said Hunt, “And so did most legislators.”
During his first stint as governor, Hunt created the North Carolina Council of Business Management and Development, which provided him an opportunity to rub elbows once a quarter with the state’s most respected CEOs. He listened to their concerns about the need for fiscal restraint and they listened to his dreams for growing the North Carolina economy. “We must be both frugal and compassionate,” he said in an address to the legislature, “We must govern with our heads as well as our hearts.”
Good ideas are a dime a dozen. The key to the success of good ideas is leadership, not the ideas.
Jim Hunt succeeded time and time again with bold, visionary ideas because he sold business leaders first and then leveraged their credibility and influence to get the votes he needed to pass his legislation.
Hunt’s Free Market Philosophy was Hatched in the Himalayas
Hunt became an economic pragmatist in his mid-20s when he took his wife and young children to the impoverished country of Nepal to work with a team of Ford Foundation economists on an economic development plan. After two years with poor Himalayan villagers, Hunt’s life-long commitment to economic growth through education and a technology-based infrastructure was set.
“It isn’t just a matter of dividing the pie,” Hunt told Pearce in an interview. “You can grow the pie.”
Hunt did not agree with those who see government’s role as simply taking from one person to give to another. “My approach,” said Hunt, “has always been that, if we’re smart about it and have the right policies, we can find a way to grow the pie, and everybody can have more.”
Unfortunately for Democrats, growing the party or grooming the next generation of bold Democratic leaders was not one of Hunt’s priorities. He created his own political and public policy machine for his exclusive political and public policy purposes. It was all about him and his vision.
Fortunately for the state however, Hunt’s vision was a good one. He persuaded business, education and government leaders that a successful economic development program that would attract the worlds leading technology-based corporations had to be built on a foundation of a great public education system and research parks supported by an internationally acclaimed university and community college system.
Further, Hunt persuaded pubic sector leaders that a balanced corporate tax and regulatory environment would stimulate economic growth that would provide them the resources for their dreams.
Democrats need to rebuild credibility and support among the political investor community. They need investors because you can’t govern if you don’t win political races.
Rule #4: Investors will Return to the Party of Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas when it has Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription only $199! Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
That’s why the Democratic Party is so critical. Ultimately, the energy of the Moral Monday protests must be directed into an organized and well-led and disciplined political war machine that is focused on winning campaigns. Ultimately, it must be led by seasoned political warfare generals to be successful.
Top 10 Keys for NC Democratic Political Recovery
Rule #3 Moral Mondays – A Therapeutic Dose of Political Energy Restoring Rhythm to the Heart of the Democratic Party
June 26, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 13 9:13 pm
On Monday, a crowd of political activists estimated by police to be 2,500 – 3,000 strong stood outside the General Assembly in Raleigh in opposition to the conservative initiatives of the new Republican leadership in the state capital. This was the eighth consecutive “Moral Monday” protest rally since April 29 of this year. These rallies are giving Democrats a therapeutic dose of political energy.
Up until the start of these Moral Monday protest rallies, there were few signs of political life among North Carolina Democrats. They were struggling to recover from the devastating defeats during the elections of 2010 and 2012; the loss of power and influence over state government.
Their struggle is an emotional one. A struggle akin to the early stages of recovery from grief associated with any great loss: shock and denial; pain and guilt; anger, depression, reflection.
The final stages of dealing with grief are about recovery: acceptance and hope; the upward turn; reconstruction. Moral Mondays have been like a defibrillator for the hearts of Democrats, a life-saving jolt sparking a renewed sense of worth. An upward turn. Hope for political recovery.
However, in fomenting a successful political rebellion you have to do more than stand against the opposition. Your credibility comes from offering a more compelling slate of policy solutions to the problems facing the state, including revised solutions to your own failed policies. Your strength comes from turning passionate protesters into a disciplined political war machine focused on elections.
This is the third of a 10-part series on the keys to political recovery for North Carolina Democrats. As with the previous series on Republican political longevity, no state legislator or legislative staff member was interviewed. All interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity. The rules thus far are:
- Rule #1: If You want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, You have to Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate.
- Rule #2: It’s All About Who Does the Asking; Get the right person to ask the right person to do the right task.
Today I am adding Rule #3 Moral Mondays – A Therapeutic Dose of Political Energy Restoring Rhythm to the Heart of the Democratic Party.
Dismiss Moral Mondays at Your Peril
Moral Mondays remind me of the early stages of the Tea Party rebellion five years ago.
During the 2009-2010 mid-term election cycle, crowds of angry, in-your-face, finger-pointing voters confronted Members of Congress at Town Hall meetings across America in protest of government spending run amok. Many conservatives were arrested.
Those Town Hall rants against Members of Congress were followed by protest rallies, called Tea Party rallies, which began with small crowds but grew over the months to hundreds and then thousands.
Democrats laughed at them. Dismissed them. After all, the protesters were wearing those silly tri-cornered hats and spouting Revolutionary War era slogans and carrying homemade signs with statements like “Socialism is Trickle-Up Poverty” and “Hands Off My Healthcare.”
In April of 2010, when virtually no one saw the unorganized Tea Partiers as a political threat, a reader asked me what I thought about their potential. Here is a portion of my reply:
“I have read a lot of Tea Party material these past couple of weeks and am convinced that these folks will be a constant source of fuel for the fires of public discontent this year. Most voters grumble at home and the office or at the club but are reluctant to say anything that may offend anyone in public. Tea Partiers are the angry and fearless voices saying publicly what everyone else wants to say … voices that empower others to become active. It’s only April [2010], and the state and federal budget concerns are not going away this year.”
That dismissive attitude of Democrats in Washington, D.C. and Raleigh towards Tea Party protesters in 2010 was their downfall. They simply didn’t take them seriously.
Moral Mondays are the first signs of political life for North Carolina Democrats. The protests began with small crowds and a few dozen arrests but have grown to crowds of thousands and over 600 arrests.
Republicans laugh at them. Dismiss them. Short-sighted lawmakers like state Sen. Thom Goolsby, a New Hanover County Republican, referred to Moral Monday as “Moron Monday” in an Op-Ed column in the Chatham Journal. He called the protesters “clowns” and “old Hippies.”
Thanks to dismissive Republican lawmakers like Goolsby, Moral Monday’s are gaining strength and have the potential of growing into a successful political rebellion.
Protest Energy Must be Organized into Political Energy
Protest rallies are all well and good, but to govern you must win campaigns. In order to win campaigns, protest energy must be redirected to organized political energy directed by seasoned professionals.
A unique characteristic of the Tea Party movement here in North Carolina and elsewhere is that they have never wanted to be centrally organized or led by a top-down hierarchy. So how is it that they were so successful politically? Because the North Carolina Republican Party provided the organization.
In 2009, Tom Fetzer, former Republican Mayor of Raleigh and a seasoned campaign professional, won the race for the Chairmanship of the state GOP. Fetzer, along with State Senator Phil Berger, the Senate Republican Minority Leader, and Representatives Skip Stam, the House Republican Minority Leader and Thom Tillis, the House Republican Whip, channeled the anti-establishment energy of conservatives all over the state into a disciplined political war machine.
Those four political war generals hired the best political consultants they could hire, recruited the best candidates they could recruit, and provided the coordination for the strategic investment of all political resources into targeted opportunities for winning campaigns.
The Republican Party defeated Democrats in 2010 because of intellectual capital of their leaders along with the disciplined organization of rank and file Republicans and antiestablishment Tea Partiers.
Here is one more paragraph from that April, 2010 reply to the reader who asked me what I thought about the potential of the Tea Party:
“It’s not that any of this [Tea Party movement] is organized into a polished grassroots machine … clearly it’s not. But, by connecting all of the dots … including the likely future events … I am persuaded that there is a movement of voters big enough and angry enough to keep the fire spreading all year until someone comes along and captures that discontent and organizes it into a political victory … or two or three.”
That “someone” who came along and captured the discontent and provided the organization for many political victories was the North Carolina Republican Party, led by seasoned political warfare generals. They did it again in 2012 under the party stewardship of former Congressman Robin Hayes.
That’s why the Democratic Party is so critical. Ultimately, the energy of the Moral Monday protests must be directed into an organized and well-led and disciplined political war machine that is focused on winning campaigns. Ultimately, it must be led by seasoned political warfare generals to be successful.
Meanwhile, dismiss Moral Mondays at your own peril.
Rule #3: Moral Mondays – A Therapeutic Dose of Political Energy Restoring Rhythm to the Heart of the Democratic Party.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription only $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing at the SPECIAL Premium Annual Subscription rate of only $199. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
The state Democratic Party has lots of Warren Buffetts scattered around the state. You know them. They are the ones who are the most respected in the community. The ones who are the backbone of the civic groups and religious institutions. The ones who have something extra that draws people to them.
They are the ones we all RSVP “yes” to if they invite us to an event.
Top 10 Keys for NC Democratic Political Recovery
Rule #2: It’s All About Who Does the Asking; Get the Right Person to Ask the Right Person to do the Right Task
June 19, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 12 4:13 pm
There is not a single challenge facing the North Carolina Democratic Party that cannot be overcome successfully if the right person asks the right person to do the right task.
Illustration: If Warren Buffett invited you to join a small group for a private dinner, would you go? Does anything matter other than the fact that he is one of the most respected people in the world?
All of us are drawn to the most respected people of our time. If they invite us to a private event, we go.
Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor, told CNN last November that he hopes Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States in 2016. What if Warren Buffett invited you to join a small group for dinner at the Cardinal Club in Raleigh to discuss your $1 million commitment to a North Carolina Hillary Clinton for President Super PAC?
Ummmmmmmm. Right task. Right person doing the asking. Maybe the wrong person to ask?
The North Carolina Democratic Party needs money. Who are the right people for the task? The right people for each level of donors? The right people for online fundraising?
The party needs organizational restructuring to meet the needs of modern-day, high-tech political warfare. Is there a new generation of younger Democrats better suited for the task?
The party needs the best opposition research operation, the best recruiting, the best voter registration and turnout operation, the best data-mining … the best of everything a party provides.
Are the right people asking the right people to do the right task?
This is the second of a 10-part series on the keys to political recovery for North Carolina Democrats. As with the previous series on Republican political longevity, no state legislator or legislative staff member was interviewed. All interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity. The rules highlighted thus far, including today’s new rule, are:
- Rule #1: If You want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, You have to Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate.
- Rule #2: It’s All About Who Does the Asking; Get the right person to ask the right person to do the right task.
Worst Situation in a Century
Is Randy Voller, the embattled chairman of the state Democratic Party, the right person to be the voice of state Democrats? The right person to ask major donors for a major commitment to the party’s political recovery? The right person to hire the right staff and consultants?
Rob Christensen, veteran political reporter and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics, wrote a story in the June 19, 2013 N&O about Randy Voller and his leadership challenges.
Here are some words from the Christensen story that show just how deep a hole the party has dug itself into: “infighting;” “unusual settlement agreement with several of his critics,” “critics … calling for a vote of confidence on his leadership,” “squabbling;” “worst situation in a century;” “plagued by discontent;” “civil war;” “factionalism;” “complaints about him naming himself interim executive director;” “trip to Las Vegas with friends in March to watch a basketball game in which he used a Democratic Party American Express Card to charge $3,327;” “substantial consulting contracts awarded to friends;” “$7,000-per-month contract … in a party that is facing financially tight times.”
The Christensen story also notes that last week Nina Szlosberg-Landis, the first vice chair of the state party and one of its most successful fundraisers, resigned “citing the difficulty in working with Voller.”
Is Randy Voller the right person to lead the North Carolina Democratic Party to political recovery?
Spiritual Gifts Analogy
Like most Christian church goers, I have slept through my share of sermons. But there is one sermon I have never forgotten, a sermon that woke me up to a great organizational concept that is as valuable today as it was 2000 years ago when Paul the Apostle wrote about it in his Letter to the Romans.
The sermon was about how each of us is given a different gift, a personal strength. How, according to our faith, God gives us different gifts because unique personal strengths are required to meet the many unique needs of the greater church. Gifts like mercy or service, of giving, leadership or teaching.
Now here is the organizational value of that concept: When asked to do a task for the greater good, you should say “no” to any task that does not fit your unique strengths. Critical thought: If you say “yes,” you are depriving the organization of getting the right person to do the right task.
Have you ever accepted responsibility for a task that you were not suited for? Was it a miserable experience? Have you seen the quality of work suffer because the wrong people were in charge?
Getting the right people to ask the right people to do the right task is essential for political recovery for the North Carolina Democratic Party.
The NC Democratic Party has lots of Warren Buffetts
The state Democratic Party has lots of Warren Buffetts scattered around the state. You know them. They are the ones who are the most respected in the community. The ones who are the backbone of the civic groups and religious institutions. The ones who have something extra that draws people to them.
They are the ones we all RSVP “yes” to if they invite us to an event.
They are the ones who would never take a trip to Las Vegas with friends to watch a basketball game and use the state Democratic Party American Express Card to charge $3,327 in expenses.
Granted, political recovery is about strategic planning; it’s about careful targeting and perfect timing. Political recovery is about flawless execution of tactical maneuvers. It’s about raising money.
However, even with the perfect plan you will not succeed if you don’t have the right people asking the right people to do the right task.
Rule #2: It’s All About Who Does the Asking; Get the Right Person to Ask the Right Person to do the Right Task.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
SPRING SPECIAL $199: If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription only $199 during our Spring Special promotion. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Rule #1: If You Want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate June 6, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 11 3:13 pm North Carolina was the last Southern state east of the Mississippi River to give Republicans exclusive power over state government and may be the first to give power back
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Rule #1: If You Want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate
June 6, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 11 3:13 pm
North Carolina was the last Southern state east of the Mississippi River to give Republicans exclusive power over state government and may be the first to give power back to the Democrats … both for the same reason: we are a swing state dominated by urban voters and greatly influenced by education-oriented business leaders who run global corporations.
In North Carolina, neither party has an inherent partisan advantage. Ideologically, we are precariously balanced. Not a predictably Republican “red” state. Not a predictably Democratic “blue” state. We are a purple state; a purple state with an urban hue.
Demographic trends driven by population growth argue that Democrats have a bright future in North Carolina, and sooner than later at that if Republicans distance themselves too far to the ideological right on social and economic policy. Too far to the right for most urban voters, too far for most globally oriented business leaders, most women, and most of our emerging generation of young voters.
North Carolina, the 10th largest state in the nation, has grown at twice the national average for 20 years. Voter registrations have soared from 3.4 million in 1993 to 6.4 million voters today. In 2012, only about half of all voters were native North Carolinians.
Migration studies have consistently shown that most of North Carolina’s newcomers are not from the South. They are from states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York and New Jersey. Polls show that newcomers are far less likely than natives to be conservative.
Urban newcomers in North Carolina favor Democrats over Republicans. They are more moderate than conservative, more tolerant than intolerant, more independent than partisan and more pro-government than anti-government. They are more likely to see a direct and positive relationship between public investment and private sector competitiveness, between public investment and quality of life.
Twenty-one of the 28 members of the North Carolina Metro Mayors Association are Democrats. Half of the state’s voters are in only 13 of 100 counties. In the 2012 General Elections, when Republicans won majorities in the state House, the state Senate and won the Governor’s Mansion, those 13 urban counties gave President Obama 1,266,602 votes to Romney’s 976,703 votes.
Urban voters are the Democrats best hope for political recovery.
The 10-Part Series on Democratic Political Recovery
This report is the first in a 10-part series on the keys to political recovery for North Carolina Democrats. As with the previous series on Republican political longevity, no state legislator or legislative staff member was interviewed. All interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity.
During the months of June, July and August, these questions will be explored:
- How can Democrats raise a competitive war chest without power?
- What is the profile of the next generation of Democratic leaders?
- How can Democrats rebuild the trust of the state’s business community?
- Where are the targeted opportunities for 2014?
- Will private sector women provide Democrats their best hope for recovery?
- Will research park business leaders be repelled by GOP hardliners?
- What are the political recovery issues for Democrats?
- Can you harvest a crop with your hands cuffed?
- What are the most important opposition research opportunities for Democrats?
- How do you begin a new generation of Democratic leaders with the under-40 voters?
- What technological advantages are Democrats better capable of exploiting?
- When are Democrats likely to achieve political recovery in North Carolina?
Today I am beginning the 10-part series with Rule #1: If you want to lead a purple, business-friendly state, you have to recruit a purple, business-friendly slate.
Business didn’t leave the Democrats, the Democrats left Business
If archconservative Republican caucus members in the state legislature continue to pull the GOP to the bright red side of the social and economic political spectrum, they will get Republicans into trouble with urban voters, with women, with young voters, and with the all-important moderate independent voter.
They will also get Republicans into hot water with the state’s globally oriented research park corporate community and many other progressive private sector business leaders around the state.
That’s what happened to Democrats. They were so powerful that they no longer saw the value in maintaining ideologically-balanced state Senate and House caucuses. Business-friendly caucuses.
Democrats forgot the 100-year-old public/private partnership between education oriented business leaders and business oriented education leaders that set the state apart from the rest of the Old South; that created the best state in America to do business long before Republicans gained the upper hand.
A new breed of Democrats emerged who no longer found value in their relationship with business leaders. That is, other than their role as fundraisers. Great governors like Jim Hunt, who personally sold the CEO community on education reforms for three decades, were followed by weak governors like Beverly Perdue who had to be sued so that the constitutionally authorized Superintendent of Pubic Instruction could run the public school system. Governor Mike Easley, Perdue’s predecessor, neglected the long-respected Governor’s Business Committee on Education. He disdained meeting with CEOs.
While Democrats were electing governors who alienated the state’s CEO community with either their indifference or their incompetence, Democratic leaders in the state Senate and House were equally indifferent to maintaining balanced, business oriented caucuses.
The 2011 business ratings of North Carolina Senators and House members conducted by the business-sponsored North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation showed:
- Only 2 of 19 Senate Democrats had business ratings above 70% (highest business category)
- Only 6 of 52 House Democrats had business ratings above 70%
When it was time to elect caucus leaders, which ideological group do you think prevailed? Now you know why business and agricultural interests lost confidence in Senate and House Democrats.
Abandon the middle at your own peril
Democrats not only abandoned the state’s business and agricultural leaders, they abandoned the majority of voters clustered near the middle of the ideological spectrum. Democrats created a political vacuum that Republicans were more than happy to fill.
That’s what Republicans risk doing today: abandoning the middle. Creating a political vacuum that offers Democrats renewed hope for political recovery.
In order to ready themselves for the opportunity for political recovery, Democrats must do two things.
First, they have to get over their loss of power. Get over the anger and the denial and the blame game.
Two Democrats come to mind who set the example for how to lose: former “Speaker for Life” Liston Ramsey and former governor Jim Hunt.
Liston Ramsey, a Madison County Democrat who served 19 consecutive terms in the North Carolina House of Representatives, was elected speaker in 1981. He became the first legislator in North Carolina history to hold the speaker’s office for four terms. He was frequently referred to as “Speaker for Life.”
On the opening day of the 1989 session of the General Assembly, a political coup organized in secret by a small group of disgruntled Democrats along with House Republicans led to Ramsey’s defeat.
Liston Ramsey accepted his new role as merely another House member and served with distinction and integrity for another 10 years. He never once played the blame game or showed any anger or exhibited any form of sour grapes. He simply went back to work.
Governor Jim Hunt did the same thing in 1985 after losing the epic battle with Jesse Helms to serve in the U.S. Senate. I asked one of Governor Hunt’s closest friends how long it took Hunt to recover from that devastating defeat. “It took him six to nine months to come to terms personally with the loss,” his friend told me, “but then he went right back to work, beginning with the creation of the Emmerging Issues Forum in 1985.”
Since that time, Hunt has achieved an extraordinary and unprecedented list of accomplishments … serving two more terms as governor, helping grow NC State University into a flagship university, with national and international standing equal to UNC – Chapel Hill. Anyone who doubts that claim has yet to see the Centennial Campus … or visit the Hunt Library.
That’s the way to lose. Go back to work. It’s not about you, it’s about what you believe.
The second thing Democrats must do in order to be prepared for the opportunity to recover their political standing in state government is to rebuild their relationship with the state’s business community.
You accomplish that by recruiting Democrats from the world of business to serve at all levels of government. You build a farm team of new business Democrats from the ground up. Every leadership position. City, county and state. You seek the advice of business people in all that you do.
Demographic trends driven by population growth argue that Democrats have a bright future in North Carolina, and sooner than later if Republicans distance themselves too far to the ideological right on social and economic policy. But Democrats must be ready for the next opportunity to lead.
If you want to lead a purple, business-friendly state, you have to recruit a purple, business friendly slate.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Click here for the Premium Annual Subscription at the reduced rate of $199, or, mail your check for $199 to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622
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The fact is, the Democratic dynasty was already near collapse in 2010 and 2012. The Democratic structural and organizational underpinnings were rotted with corruption, infighting, neglect and diminishing political battlefield competence, making them a very vulnerable political enemy.
Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
This report is the final in a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism
- Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule”
- Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology
Today, I am adding Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
May 8, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 10 3:13 pm
This 10-part series on the keys to Republican political longevity began on January 11, 2013, with the caution: don’t create political opportunities for the Democrats by making yourself vulnerable, and the best way to make yourself vulnerable is to think you are not vulnerable.
The greatest source of a sense of invulnerability is pride, the deadliest of the seven deadly sins.
For instance, pride would have Republicans believe that it was their superior might, savvy and ability as political combatants that vanquished the unbeatable foe, the North Carolina Democrats, in 2010 and 2012. If that was the whole story, why did it take the GOP 114 years to defeat them?
The fact is, the Democratic dynasty was already near collapse in 2010 and 2012. The Democratic structural and organizational underpinnings were rotted with corruption, infighting, neglect and diminishing political battlefield competence, making them a very vulnerable political enemy.
Compounding the political instability of North Carolina Democrats was President Obama, who weakened Democrats to the breaking point of defeat all over the United States by racing ahead of the wishes of voters with his own public policy agenda. During his first term, Obama was like the hare in The Tortoise and the Hare, ignoring the value of plodding along patiently with respect for the priorities of most Americans: jobs and the economy.
North Carolina Democrats never seemed to realize that they were creating major breakthrough political opportunities for Republicans by making themselves vulnerable with:
- A 10-year rash of embarrassing criminal indictments that scared off loyal contributors;
- Legislative caucuses that drifted so far left of center that they threatened business leaders;
- Leaders who hogged the glory and ignored the need for a new generation of strong state leaders;
- Standing with President Obama and his personal agenda against the voters and their agenda;
- Buying elections year after year with obligatory loyalty from resentful contributors.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It makes you think you are not vulnerable.
Today, Republicans are the ones with the absolute power in North Carolina. They, like the hare in The Tortoise and the Hare, risk becoming vulnerable by racing so fast to the public policy finish line that they lose sight of the need to bring the voters along with them. Without the support of North Carolina voters, Republican leaders, like Obama, will cause their party a world of hurt.
So, how do you avoid the corrupting influence of absolute power? First, you move at a slow and steady pace that allows for an exchange of information, concerns and ideas with voters locally around the state.
One of the best examples of effective management of sensitive public policy matters by bringing voters along with you is how Senate and House Republican leaders managed reapportionment of legislative and congressional districts. They presented their plans to the public, allowing voters to express their concerns at open forums like local public libraries and community colleges.
Take a look at the list of public hearings and the locations held by the Joint House and Senate Redistricting Committees. Over 100 opportunities for public input were scheduled during the months of April, May, June and July, 2011, for the convenience of North Carolina voters.
The second means of avoiding the corrupting influence of absolute power is to keep yourself humble by surrounding yourself with mementos of past mistakes.
I learned that transformative political lesson in 1979 from a banker in Mississippi.
His name was Bob Hearin. He was the wealthiest man in the state. President and majority stockholder of First National Bank in Jackson.
He was also the most reclusive man in the state.
Despite his great wealth, Bob worked in a drab office cluttered with odd, out-of-place items like rusty machine parts on dusty bookshelves with a small stack of old bricks piled loosely on the floor. A weathered wooden sign leaned against a dingy wall.
It would take weeks for me to finally get up the nerve to ask, “Mr. Hearin, what is all of this junk scattered around your office?”
Unlike most bank presidents, Bob Hearin was so intensely private that no one my age knew what he looked like. We had only seen a picture on the front page of the state’s largest newspaper, The Clarion-Ledger, in the annual article about the “Ten Wealthiest Mississippians.”
Each morning, except Thursdays, Mr. Hearin drove to his downtown Jackson office at First National Bank, the second largest bank in the state, where he would spend the day managing his varied business interests. Each afternoon he left the bank promptly at 3 o’clock and drove out to his farm where he fed his cows from the back of his pickup truck.
In addition to banking, he was a principal stockholder in Amerada Hess, an oil exploration and production company listed on the NYSE and headquartered in New York City, and, at one time, part-owner of the New York Jets.
On Thursdays he flew to New York City in his private jet to meet with his business partner Leon Hess, founder of Amerada Hess and owner of the New York Jets. He always made it back to Jackson in time to feed the cows.
It was because he was so reclusive, that the state’s business and political establishment was shocked when he agreed to serve in the high-profile role as finance chair of Lt. Gov. Evelyn Gandy’s campaign for governor of the Magnolia State. He was returning a favor.
The reason that I know all of this is because I was Evelyn Gandy’s Campaign Manager. I had the unique privilege of meeting with Mr. Hearin daily to discuss campaign finances.
The first day I met with Bob Hearin I was nervous. His personal secretary, Dixie, greeted me with businesslike hospitality at the elevator of the dimly lit and noticeably quiet executive suite. She led me to Mr. Hearin’s office. He immediately came to the door and welcomed me with a warm smile and sincere handshake.
I was surprised by Mr. Hearin’s friendliness; perhaps I expected an old curmudgeon. I was also surprised at his threadbare dark blue suit and his overall disheveled appearance.
The office décor was sparse, more like what you would see in a bus station waiting room rather than in the inner sanctum of the wealthiest man in the state. And then, there were those odd items all around the office. “What were they all about,” I thought curiously.
Over the next several weeks I became increasingly comfortable with Mr. Hearin during our daily meetings. Eventually, we began to talk about things other than the campaign. That was when I learned about his cows and his other business interests and his Thursdays in New York City.
The day finally came when I had the courage to ask him about the odd items in his office. “Mr. Hearin,” I began cautiously, “What is all of this junk scattered around your office?”
His eyes darted from object to object, finally resting on the small stack of bricks. “Those are mementos,” he began pensively, “of every bad loan I have ever made.”
I was stunned.
“See those bricks,” he continued, “I lost over $250,000 on a loan to the company that made those bricks.” He then nodded towards the rusty machine parts, “See those machine parts on the shelf? I lost $100,000 on that bad loan.”
One after another Mr. Hearin pointed out mementos of loans gone bad. Treasured mementos of mistakes. Always in sight. Never to be forgotten. Never to be repeated.
This transformative lesson is particularly valuable in North Carolina politics, the newest of the presidential swing states. The perfectly level political battlefield where there are no permanent partisan advantages. Where nothing can be taken for granted.
In North Carolina politics, you can go from invincible to vulnerable overnight. And no political leader or group is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
PS: A new 10-part series highlighting key rules for How North Carolina Democrats Can Recover Political Power will begin the first week in June. Send me your ideas: www.johndavisconsulting.com
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P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are: Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors Rule #3: Keep your
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This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism
- Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule”
Today I am adding Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology. North Carolina is tied politically and will be tied for the foreseeable future.
April 24, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 9 8:13 pm
Charlotte, one of the nation’s fastest growing cities of 298 square miles, now has more people than the State of Alaska, which has 586,412 square miles. Alaska has a population of about 730,000 people. Charlotte has a population of 750,000. There are more people in the Charlotte Metropolitan Area than in the states of Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota and Alaska combined.
The Triangle is also one of the country’s fastest growing metropolitan areas. As to political muscle, Raleigh’s Wake County and Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County cast a combined total of 934,265 votes in the 2012 General Election, the same total as the least populated 61 of North Carolina’s 100 counties.
I say all of this to amplify the most startling fact from the 2012 elections: only about half of the state’s voters are native North Carolinians. According to the March 2013 North Carolina Data-Net, “… barely half of the state’s voters were native North Carolinians. Forty-nine percent [49%] were born elsewhere.”
Why should the growth of new urban voters matter to Republicans? Because the study shows that those who moved to North Carolina in the last 5-to-10 years voted for Obama by 62% over Romney’s 38%.
In just 20 years, our voter rolls have grown from 3.4 million to 6.4 million. That growth rate is projected to continue for decades, steadily shrinking the percentage of native North Carolina voters.
As to the impact of our growth on partisan politics, the Republican share is also steadily shrinking.
In 2006, North Carolina registered Republicans numbered 35% of the 5.5 million voters. By 2010, the Republican share of all registered voters was down to 32% of 6.2 million voters. Today, April 24, 2013, North Carolina Republicans number only 30.8% of 6,624,136 voters.
While the combined total of voters in Wake and Mecklenburg counties have grown by 140% since 1993, Democrats have dropped from 53% of the total to 43%, while Republicans have dropped from 36% to only 28%. Unaffiliated voters have grown from 11% to 29% of the Wake/Mecklenburg total.
Republicans have all of the political power in the state and that means a competitive advantage. However, power has a way of distorting perceptions of reality. Numbers are a reality check.
The reality is that North Carolina is virtually tied politically; a swing state with a level battlefield that favors neither party. Most of the projected growth is in urban counties where the GOP is losing ground.
Don’t bring TV ads to a turnout fight
You’ve heard the old caution, “Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight.” In today’s world of breaking ties in political races, that adage could be written, “Don’t bring TV ads to a turnout fight.”
The 2012 presidential race was tied the entire year. An astounding 97% of likely voters knew whether they were going to vote for or against President Obama the entire fall.
There were very few persuadable voters. You were either going to vote for Obama or not. Period.
Real Clear Politics has compiled a list of 202 national polls conducted from January through November last year that pinned voters down on their voting intentions.
- Not 1 of 35 national polls conducted from Oct 1 to Nov 6, 2012 showed Obama above 50%
- Obama’s average support was 48.8% out of 202 polls; Romney’s average support was 48.1%
- 48.8% plus 48.1% equals 96.9%, leaving only 3.1% of all likely voters undecided
In mid-2011, the Obama camp saw that the race was tied, and that the trend line was flat and likely to hold both candidates just below the winning 50% mark all the way to the finish line. They surmised that a tied race could best be won by getting more of their voters to vote by investing $100 million in data mining and turnout technology.
The brightest Republican consultants surmised that they could break the tie by spending hundreds of millions of TV ad dollars persuading voters that Obama was awful. What they overlooked was the fact that there were very few persuadable voters, and the fact that the Romney vote was unenthusiastic and needed extra prodding to get them to the polls. Romney needed a competitive turnout operation.
Obama’s Strategic Advantage over Romney and GOP Superstars
After reading numerous accounts of how Obama’s Chicago team built a turnout advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstars like Karl Rove, it is clear that it was the investment in technology and an analytics team that broke the tie and won the race.
Read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, invested $100 million in technology and analytics software. He hired a team of techies five times the size of the 2008 operations group, the group that shattered all voter registration and turnout records.
These data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.” The Obama megafile allowed the campaign:
- To predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- To rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- To predict the types of people who would more likely give money online or by mail
- To predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- To raise a record $1 billion war chest
- To register 3 million new voters and turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
Another Time magazine story, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters, revealed how the Obama campaign used technology to overcome the challenge of turning out young voters who did not have a land-line phone.
- 85% of Obama’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone number were found via a Facebook Friends app
- 1 million Obama backers used the app on Facebook, permitting the Chicago HQ analytics geeks to look at their Facebook Friends
- 600,000 Obama supporters used the Facebook app to persuade 5 million of their Facebook Friends to register, contribute and/or vote
- Obama team registered 1.8 million new voters door-to-door; 1.1 million online
Chicago-based data analytics geeks gave President Barack Obama his margin of victory by identifying a powerful new means of “door-to-door contact” by friends: Facebook Friends apps on smartphones and tablets. Friends were contacting friends using texting and social media; the new knock at the door.
North Carolina’s dramatic growth from 3.4 million voters to 6.4 million voters in 20 years has yielded the startling fact that only about half of the state’s voters are natives. That same growth has created a partisan political tie.
Merely making voter registration and turnout a priority is no longer enough. It must be the priority.
Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology. North Carolina is tied politically and will be tied for the foreseeable future.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report! John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
“It turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
NY Times, 3/26/2013, regarding Pres. Obama’s new Organizing for Action “Social Welfare” organization
March 27, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 8 11:13 pm
It’s time we put principle aside and do what’s right!
On June 19, 2008, Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama created a firestorm among liberal campaign finance reformers by breaking his pledge to limit his campaign spending to public funds. Obama chose to put the practical value of a campaign spending advantage over personal principle. He knew that in order to win, he had to Obey the Golden Rule of Politics: Those with the most gold rule.
Obama’s decision to put principal aside freed him to raise an unlimited amount of money. Republican nominee John McCain opted to shackle himself to public financing. When the final campaign spending totals were tallied, the FEC reported that Obama had raised $745 million to McCain’s $368 million.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans.
David Plouffe, campaign manager for President Obama’s 2008 victory, in writing about the decision to opt out of public financing in his book The Audacity to Win, said, “Sacrificing this added cash would mean we either had to pare our list of target battlegrounds or run less rigorous campaigns in each.”
One of those target battlegrounds was North Carolina. If Obama had put principle over money and opted out of public financing in 2008, he would not have carried North Carolina and Beverly Purdue would not have been governor.
North Carolina was Obama’s closest win (14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast). Perdue’s win was the closest governors race in the U.S., despite her 2-to-1 spending advantage over McCrory ($14.9 million to his $6.7 million) and despite a historic Democratic turnout thanks to Obama’s state organization.
“Staying in the federal system would seriously impede our ability to mount that kind of campaign that left no stone unturned,” wrote Plouffe, “I thought if we opted out of the system, we would also enjoy a significant financial advantage over McCain.” He was right.
In 2008, the Obama campaign raised $782 million (McCain $368 million), employed 6,000 staffers who managed 13 million volunteers. In September alone, Obama raised $100 million online. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,” said Plouffe.
When it comes to principle versus money in politics, ignore the protests of the press and the outrage of the campaign finance reformers; put principle aside and do what’s right: raise money.
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Today, I am adding Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule.”
NC Republicans are only half-way to financial dominance; President Obama points the way to the other half
Thanks to excellent research and analysis of 2012 campaign finances by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, we can now say for certain that North Carolina Republicans have learned well from Democrats and are following their precedent in valuing political financial dominance.
- Republican Senate candidates raised about $11.3 million to only $3.7 million for Democratic Senate candidates, a 3-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 33 to 17 Senate majority.
- Republican House candidates raised $12.9 million to $5.3 million for the Democrats, a 2-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 77 to 43 House majority.
- Republican Gov. Pat McCrory raised $11.2 million to $4.3 million for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton, a 2012 advantage that led to a 55% to 43% victory.
Granted, reports like these make it clear that North Carolina Republicans are well on their way to establishing political financial dominance. However, they are only halfway there. The other half of political financial dominance is the establishment of 501 (c) (4) “social welfare” nonprofit groups that may raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to advance their legislative agenda.
Once again, Republicans have an excellent model thanks to President Obama.
Obama’s campaign organization, Organizing for America, has morphed into a new advocacy machine called Organizing for Action. OFA is run by former campaign operatives, like Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, and pledges to “support the legislative agenda we voted on, train the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders, and organize around local issues in our communities.”
Sound like something of political value to North Carolina Republicans? Keeping your political organization fine-tuned as an IRS approved “social welfare” organization? Training the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders? Unlimited shadow funding?
Raise $2 million and you can be on Obama’s board
On Tuesday, March 26, 2013, The New York Times carried a story about Organizing for Action stating, “In addition to the previously reported “board of trustees” whose members are expected to raise at least $500,000, it turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
What are they going to do with all of that money?
According to Organizing for Action’s statement of purpose, they are established to:
- “Support President Obama in achieving enactment of his national agenda.”
- Form grassroots level chapters that will also work for “progressive change on a range of issues at the state and local level.”
- All while operating as a “social welfare” organization” under IRS Code 501(c)(4).
Fred Wertheimer, head of Democracy 21 and a leading national voice for campaign finance reform, described the OFA as “an unprecedented entity that allows individual donors and bundlers to provide unlimited amounts of money to an organization functioning as an arm of the Obama presidency.”
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
By 2015, voters born from 1982 – 1995 will be a full third of the voting population. North Carolina Republicans can secure their political longevity and create a model for the rest of the nation if they follow Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Rule #7: Welcome Young Voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism; not “Come as we are” Closed Conservatism.
“I think this is a vast overreaction …,” Krauthammer told Bill O’Reilly, “He’s a leading Republican, obviously presidential timbre. He’s got the highest popularity of any governor and he’s in a blue state.”
Charles Krauthammer on CPAC’s snub of Republican Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey
March 13, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 7 3:13 pm
Come as we are or don’t come at all!
CPAC, the national Conservative Political Action Conference, is a classic example of why conservatives in general and Republicans in particular have a brand problem with America’s youngest voters.
CPAC is holding its annual meeting March 14 – 16 in Washington, DC. The theme is, America’s Future: The Next Generation of Conservatives, a worthy topic in light of the growing numbers of young Americans in the workplace and the voting booth.
- On average, 10,000 Baby Boomers retire every day.
- By 2015, the majority of the workforce in the U.S. will be in their 20s.
- By 2015, those born 1982 – 1995 will be a full third of the voting population.
CPAC welcomes all conservatives … ummm, unless you are one of the eight Republican governors, like Chris Christie of New Jersey, who favors expanding Medicaid for the poor. Then, you are demonized.
CPAC’s message to the “next generation of conservatives” is, come as we are or don’t come at all.
How can CPAC attract a new generation of young conservatives when they snub 8 Republican governors just because they decided that it was in their state’s best interest to take the Medicaid money? The eight governors are: NJ Gov. Chris Christie, VA Gov. Bob McDonnell, OH Gov. John Kasich, AZ Gov. Jan Brewer, FL Gov. Rick Scott, ND Gov. Jack Dalrymple, MI Gov. Rick Snyder, NM Gov. Susana Martinez, and NV Gov. Brian Sandoval.
Conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer told Bill O’Reilly, host of Fox News’ The O’Reilly Factor, that CPAC’s decision to snub NJ Gov. Chris Christie was a mistake. “I think this is a vast overreaction …,” Krauthammer said, “He’s a leading Republican, obviously presidential timbre. He’s got the highest popularity of any governor and he’s in a blue state.”
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
Today, I am adding Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Lose young voters now, lose them forever
Since the 1950s, university and private think tank researchers have documented time and time again that once a voter establishes a partisan political identity they will remain true to that party for life.
Last year’s presidential race was the third in a row in which young voters favored the Democrat over the Republican. In 2004, John Kerry won the 18-29 year-old group by 9 points; in 2008, Barack Obama won the group by 34 points and by 23 points in 2012.
By way of partisan contrast, Ronald Reagan won 59% of 18-29 year olds in 1984. Those young Reagan conservatives are still conservative, and still more likely to vote Republican. However, they are now the keepers of a conservative litmus test nationally and here in North Carolina that Reagan could not pass.
Ronald Reagan would not have been welcomed to this weekend’s CPAC conference.
- California Gov. Reagan supported/expanded Medi-Cal, the nation’s largest Medicaid program
- Reagan raised taxes in an effort to balance the California budget (largest state tax ever)
- President Reagan increased the national debt from $700 billion to $3 trillion
- Reagan transformed America from a creditor to a debtor nation
From amnesty for illegal immigrants, to abortion, to gun laws to same-sex marriage, President Ronald Reagan would fail today’s conservative litmus test. Like the eight Republican governors shunned by CPAC, Reagan would not have been invited to their conference this weekend.
Republicans must accept the reality that today’s under-30 voters are the most ethnically and racially diverse and most socially tolerant voters in American history. More like Reagan.
According to Pew Research Center, young voters are “the only age group in which a majority said the government should do more to fix problems.”
That’s why young American voters are turned off by today’s “come as we are or don’t come at all” anti-government conservatives. They are too intolerant and judgmental … like old-school preachers.
Praise and Worship Services say “Come as you are” to young Christians
Republican social and economic conservative hardliners are as out of touch with the new Millennial generation of American voters as the traditional Christian church elders are with Millennial Christians.
A couple of decades ago, young Christians began to show signs that they no longer felt comfortable worshiping where you had to wear a starched shirt or a dressy dress to be accepted; where you had to sing old hymns and sit stoically and listen to judgmental sermons about sin and God’s wrath from pompous preachers. They quit going to traditional worship service.
American churches were startled into self-examination by the dramatic decline in the participation of young adults. New startup churches were attracting young Christians by the millions; small Praise and Worship groups were meeting in vacant storefront spaces. They came dressed in jeans; they sang new Christian songs popularized by Christian Praise and Worship bands and artists.
Rather than saying to the next generation of Christians, come as we are or don’t come at all, churches all over America created “Praise and Worship Services,” a contemporary way of worshiping separated from their traditional services. They installed projection equipment for the lyrics of the new Praise and Worship songs; they invested in sound systems for Praise and Worship bands. Most of all, the traditional churches embraced the new form of worship.
Young Christians started going back to traditional churches because the churches changed from a “come as we are” mentality to “come as you are.” United in Christianity; worshiping differently.
By 2015, voters born from 1982 – 1995 will be a full third of the voting population. North Carolina Republicans can secure their political longevity and create a model for the rest of the nation if they follow Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Vive la Différence! Rule #6: Men Do Not Equal a Majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 NC statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for political longevity. “The next time a Republican man wants to say something about a gender-sensitive issue, like rape or contraception or reproductive
[More…]
Vive la Différence! Rule #6: Men Do Not Equal a Majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 NC statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for political longevity.
“The next time a Republican man wants to say something about a gender-sensitive issue, like rape or contraception or reproductive rights, he should test his views over the intercom system at the nearest Target. Anytime between 5:30 pm and 9:30 pm; when working women shop.
John Davis Political Report, February 14, 2013
Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 6 12:13 am EST
What better day to write about the relationship between women and men in politics. Valentine’s Day.
It’s the one day each year when the hostilities cease between those from Mars and those from Venus. The annual truce called so that we can safely go to Target to shop for that perfect Hallmark card. The one that says what we would say if we were stronger.
On Valentine’s Day, getting the words right is so important. In politics, getting the words right is important every day.
In 2012, Republicans lost two U.S. Senate races because the men didn’t get the words right when talking about gender sensitive issues like rape and abortion. One stated that a woman could not get pregnant if she was raped “legitimately.” The other suggested that rape just may be God’s will.
Karen Hughes, Counselor to President George W. Bush, had this to say to POLITICO after the 2012 elections: “If another Republican man says anything about rape other than it is a horrific, violent crime, I want to personally cut out his tongue. The college-age daughters of many of my friends voted for Obama because they were completely turned off by Neanderthal comments like the suggestion of ‘legitimate rape.’”
Two U.S. Senate races lost because the men didn’t get the words right. Neanderthal comments.
A presidential election lost because women were not persuaded that the Republican nominee was interested in their needs; that he supported government programs that would simplify their lives.
Texas Republican U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, one of the most seasoned political leaders and respected women in America, said in a post-Election Day interview with CNN’s Starting Point, “When we talk about women’s issues and the social issues, people have to stop acting like the woman is a throw-away here. We’ve got to talk to women about the issues they care about.”
Making ends meet during the worst economic recession since The Great Depression. Diversity of circumstances. Diversity celebrated. Not merely tolerated.
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
Today, I am adding Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 North Carolina statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for longevity.
NC Women Cast 485,606 More Votes than Men in 2012
Nationally, women accounted for 53% of all votes cast in 2012. Here in North Carolina, 55% of all voters in 2012 were women. According to the NC State Board of Elections:
- Registered women number 3,452,498 on NC’s voter roles; men number 2,899,554
- In 2012, 69.7% of women voters turned out to vote; men 66.8%
- Women cast 2,488,973 votes in 2012 (55%); men cast 2,003,367 (45%)
- Women cast 485,606 more votes than men in 2012
According to Gallup, women voted for Obama over Romney by 12 points; men voted for Romney over Obama by 8 points, creating a 20-point gender gap. That 20-point gap “is the largest Gallup has measured in a presidential election since it began compiling the vote by major subgroups in 1952.”
More politically significant than the gender gap is the marriage gap. Married women historically favor Republicans; single women favor Democrats.
In 2008, married women supported the Republican presidential nominee John McCain by 6 points, 53% to 47%; single women supported Obama by 32 points, 66% to 34%. “That provided him with a comfortable margin of victory,” notes John Zogby, veteran pollster and pundit, writing in Forbes.
In 2012, married women supported Mitt Romney by 6 points, 53% to 47%; single women supported Obama by 36 points, 68% to 32%. That’s a 42-point marriage gap.
Ruy Teixeira, noted political demographer with the Center for American Progress, estimates that unmarried women now represent 47% percent of all American women, up from 38% in 1970.
It’s no wonder Fox News commentators blamed Romney’s defeat on single women. They were right.
Women. Binders full of women. Legitimate rape. Getting the words right. Single women.
If you want to get the words right, go to Target not Talbots
So, how do you get the words right? Go to Target. Not Talbots.
Only women who can afford to shop at Talbots go to Talbots. However, those who can afford to shop at Talbots also shop at Target, along with every other women’s demographic from age and education to family status. Single and married women with and without children; women with high school diplomas and those with university degrees; shop clerks and judges. Liberals shopping with conservatives. Target.
Karen Katz, CEO of Neiman Marcus, said in an interview with Fast Company, that her favorite non-Neiman’s place to shop was Target. “I say it without any embarrassment: I love Target. They have a really beautiful way of blending inexpensive fashion with housewares and laundry detergent.”
In September 2012, a study by Insights in Marketing revealed which of 58 brands are doing the best job of marketing to women. Target was #3 of 58, just behind Dove and Amazon.
Why do women love Target? Because Target’s design strategy is to satisfy the needs of their guests, simplify their lives, make them feel great, at an affordable price for all. All women.
Should Republicans adopt a similar approach to rebranding the party for women voters? Satisfying needs? Simplifying lives? Making all women feel welcome?
The next time a Republican man wants to say something about a gender-sensitive issue, like rape or contraception or reproductive rights, he should test his views over the intercom system at the nearest Target. Anytime between 5:30 pm and 9:30 pm; when working women shop.
Odds are he will quickly conclude that his time at Target could be better spent … like at the greeting card aisle getting his sweetheart a Valentine’s Day card.
2012 a Historic Political Year for Women
Since election year 2000, there have been 40 statewide races in North Carolina that came down to a female candidate running against a male candidate in the General Election. Women won 31 of them, including the 6 of the 7 General Election races in 2012 between a woman and a man.
- Women won 6 of the 7 statewide NC races against men in 2012 (31 of 40 since 2000; 77.5%)
- 3 of NC’s 15-member DC delegation are women (Sen. Hagan; Reps. Foxx and Elmers)
- 4 of 7 members of the NC Supreme Court are women (Parker, Hudson, Jackson, Beasley)
- 6 of 15 on NC Court of Appeals are women (McGee, Bryant, Calabria, Geer, Stevens, Stroud)
- 5 of 9 members of the Council of State are women (Marshall, Cowell, Wood, Berry, Atkinson)
- 37 of 170 members of the NC General Assembly are women (16 R; 21 D)
- 20 US Senators are women (16 Democrats; 4 Republicans); highest ever
- 73 US House members are women (58 Democrats, 20 Republicans); highest ever
- 2 women combat veterans are now serving in the US House (Tammy Duckwork, Illinois; and Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii). First ever.
Here is the list of all statewide General Election races in North Carolina since 2008 where women candidates defeated men.
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Beverly Perdue (D) v. Pat McCrory (R) |
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Beth Wood (D) v. Les Merritt (R) |
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Elaine Marshall (D) v. Jack Sawyer (R) |
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Superintendent of Public Instruction 2008 |
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June Atkinson (D) v. Richard Morgan (R) |
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Treasurer 2008 |
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Janet Cowell (D) v. Bill Daughtridge (R) |
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Court of Appeals Judge 2008 |
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Robert Hunter (D) v. Barbara Jackson (R) |
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Court of Appeals Judge 2010 |
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Martha Geer (D) v. Dean Poirier (R) |
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Elaine Marshall (D) v. Ed Goodwin (R) |
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Treasurer 2012 |
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Janet Cowell (D) v. Steve Royal (R) |
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Superintendent of Public Instruction 2012 |
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June Atkinson (D) v. John Tedesco (R) |
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John Brooks (D) v. Cherie Berry (R) |
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Court of Appeals Judge 2012 |
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Linda McGee (D) v. David Robinson (R) |
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Wanda Bryant (D) v. Marty McGee (R) |
Betsy Cochrane, from Clemmons, North Carolina, former GOP state Senator and first Republican woman to serve as Minority Leader (1985-1986), told me in an interview 10 years ago, “The biggest problem facing Republican women today is Republican men.” It’s still a big problem.
The problem? Republican men see women as a constituency to be patronized for political gain, a voting bloc to be exploited for conservative causes. That’s why they can’t get the words right.
Without the right words, Republicans will stagnate. Without the right words, most young women in America will never feel welcomed in the Republican Party. Threatened by conservative group think.
Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman and host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” participated on a panel on the future of conservatism at the National Review Institute summit last month. He said “everybody’s afraid to talk” about new ideas because of 30 years of top down conservative group think.
Peggy Noonan, speech writer for President Reagan and columnist with the Wall Street Journal, noted in her column about the National Review Institute event, that the “panel on the future of conservatism was smart and provocative, but it was composed of six men, no women.”
The next time Republican leaders are meeting privately about policy decisions, count the women in the room. That’s how you get the words right. And, if there is any doubt, try the intercom at Target.
Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority. How women defeated them in 31 of 40 North Carolina statewide races since 2000; why women are the GOP’s best hope for longevity.
Vive la Différence! And, Happy Valentine’s Day!
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND