NC Supreme Court: 4 of 7 Seats Up in 2014. Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the
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NC Supreme Court: 4 of 7 Seats Up in 2014. Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the plaintiffs … then she will adjust the scales accordingly. John Davis Political Report, February 5, 2013
Tuesday, February 5, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 5 2:13 pm
When I saw today’s dramatic news that the North Carolina Senate Rules Committee had passed a bill out that would “effectively fire all members of the Utilities Commission, Environmental Management Commission, Coastal Resources Commission, Lottery Commission and Wildlife Resources Commission,” I saw a full-employment opportunity for state lawyers.
The Republican majority has a right to initiate radical reforms. Everyone else has a right to sue them. That’s why next year’s Supreme Court races are critical for long-term Republican political dominance.
In 2014, four of North Carolina’s seven Supreme Court justices will be elected. There will be a new Chief Justice, as Chief Justice Sarah Parker will reach the mandatory retirement age of 72 on August 23, 2014. The four Supreme Court seats up for election in 2014 are:
- Chief Justice Sarah Parker, Democrat, Mecklenburg (Mandatory retirement)
- Justice Mark Martin, Republican, Wake (Running for Chief Justice)
- Justice Cheri Beasley, Democrat, Cumberland (Appointed to Timmons-Goodson seat)
- Justice Robin Hudson, Democrat, Wake
The NC Supreme Court has a solid conservative majority. There are four “non-partisan” Republicans and three “non-partisan” Democrats. Chief Justice Parker, a former member of the Executive Committee of the state Democratic Party, has long been seen as a conservative justice.
However, North Carolina is a purple, battleground state trending blue. Blue is Democratic. Most of the growth in the next several decades will be in urban areas; Democrat-friendly areas. There is no guarantee that returning to partisan Supreme Court races alone will help Republicans keep the majority.
But this much you can guarantee: Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the plaintiffs … then she will adjust the scales accordingly.
Three weeks ago, I began a series of reports highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The four rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
Today, I am adding Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war.
US Supreme Court: 224 decisions with a 5-4 vote since 2000
To give you some idea of what an ideologically split NC Supreme Court would look like, consider the US Supreme Court. The justices are historically labeled ideologically as liberals, moderates or conservatives. According to SCOTUSblog, about 80% of all US Supreme Court cases are not decided along ideological lines. However, an average of 19 cases a year are 5-4 decisions.
- Since 2000, there have been 224 US Supreme Court 5-4 split decisions
- US Supreme Court has an average of 19 opinions per term with a 5-4 split decision
- 70% of all 5-4 split decisions divided the US Supreme Court along ideological lines
Examples of 5-4 votes by the US Supreme Court since 2000:
- BUSH v. GORE (2000) decided the outcome of the presidential race
- CITIZENS UNITED v. FEC (2010) decided that independent political spending was unlimited
- NFIB v. SEBELIUS (2012) decided that ObamaCare’s individual mandate is constitutional
In the 2012, one man, US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, decided that ObamaCare is constitutional. Not the $700 million spent in 2012 by conservative independent groups; not the $1.2 billion spent by “I will repeal ObamaCare” Mitt Romney. Just John Roberts.
What angered conservatives the most about ObamaCare was the individual mandate; the right of the government to compel Americans to buy health insurance. According to Forbes, The Inside Story on How Roberts Changed His Supreme Court Vote on Obamacare, Chief Justice Roberts initially sided with the “four conservatives” on the court. Then, he switched. Now, ObamaCare is constitutional.
Political Turning Point for NC Republicans was the Stephenson Case
There is no greater illustration of the political significance of the courts in North Carolina than the Stephenson v. Bartlett redistricting case in 2002. A 5-2 Republican NC Supreme Court upheld lower court rulings in favor of Republican plaintiffs who argued that the Democratic legislative remappers violated the state constitution by failing to preserve whole counties. They even upheld the right of a Superior Court judge to throw out the legislative plans and draw his own interim maps.
Here is what the press had to say:
Asheville Citizens Times, June 1, 2002; Writer: Kerra Fisher: “The equivalent of a political seismic shift occurred on Friday, when a Smithfield trial court judge issued new political boundaries for the state that could tip the scales of legislative power in the Republicans’ favor.”
Winston-Salem Journal, Sat. June 1, 2002; Writer: David Rice: “In a decision that Republicans said puts both houses of the General Assembly in play and that Democrats criticized as unjustified judicial activism, a judge adopted new maps yesterday for state legislative districts in the 2002 elections.”
The political consequences were dramatic, shifting the advantage of remapping away from the Democrats to a level legislative playing field.
NC Senate Democrats: 12-Seat Advantage to 0-Seat Advantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 28 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 16 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
- After the judicially mandated remapping of districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a total loss of the advantage for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
NC House Democrats: 12-Seat Advantage to 4-Seat Disadvantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 59 House districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 47 House districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts. There were 14 swing House districts.
- After judicially mandated remapping the districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 51 districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 55 districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net loss of 16 districts for the Democrats. There were still 14 swing districts.
Democrats were outraged. Here is what a few Democrats had to say at the time:
Sen. Allen Wellons, (D), Johnston: “The Constitution has been trampled on. I’m shocked. This is the worst judicial activism I’ve seen,” said Wellons, “Unless the people stand up and see what has been done to them, the Republicans will take over the legislature.”
Sen. Fountain Odom, (D), Mecklenburg: “It’s unbelievable to me a judge has exercised his discretion in what he thinks maps should look like,” Odom said. “The plaintiffs in this case went judge shopping and found a judge that was not only friendly to their cause but was a friend of theirs.” .
Sen. Wib Gulley, (D), Durham: “It’s become very clear that [Jenkins] has engaged in a raw power grab on behalf of the GOP,” said Gulley, “All it does is ensure the election of more Republicans.”
Scott Falmlen, Executive Director of the NC Democratic Party: “It’s not too difficult for us to believe that the fix was in from the very beginning,” he said. “I don’t ever want to hear a Republican complain about judicial activism…. These are the most activist opinions I’ve ever seen.”
I added the outrage so you can sense the political significance of the NC Supreme Court’s rulings. “Unless the people stand up and see what has been done to them, the Republicans will take over the legislature,” said Sen. Allen Wellons, (D), Johnston.
Without Stephenson v. Bartlett, the number of state senate and house districts drawn to favor Democrats would likely have been too great to overcome in 2010, even with a strong Republican leadership team and national GOP-friendly momentum driven by anti-President Obama sentiment.
Without 2010, Republicans would not be in power today.
Democrats stopped partisan races in 2002 and created a political trap
During the 2002 legislative session, the Judicial Campaign Reform Act was passed over the objections of Republicans, ending partisan elections for NC Supreme Court and Court of Appeals races. The law included provisions for the use of public financing of appellate judiciary campaigns, making North Carolina the first state to adopt full public financing of appellate judicial elections.
Why had non-partisan elections not been a priority for Democrats before 2002? Because there were no Republicans elected to the NC Supreme Court from 1896 until 1994. Thanks to the national Republican wave in 1994, Republicans I. Beverly Lake and Robert F. Orr won seats on the court.
Ten years after the first Republican NC Supreme Court Justices elected in the 20th Century took their seats, the court became 6-1 Republican with a Republican Chief Justice. That is due in great part to the 1990s being a conservative era, especially with regards to crime and justice.
North Carolina Democrats had to act. What could be done to stop the era of Republican dominance? The answer was three-fold: 1.Non-partisan elections; 2. Public financing limits; 3. A secret fund to run independent expenditure TV ads on behalf of their slate of candidates.
It was a trap. Take the party off the ballot, lure Republicans into limiting themselves to a meager $250,000 in a publicly financed statewide campaign, and then create an independent expenditure committee to effectively double the money being spent on behalf of their candidates.
The trap was sprung in 2006
In 2006, the trap was sprung. A Democrat-financed independent expenditure group named FairJudges.net spent about as much independently for TV ads promoting their slate of Supreme Court candidates as candidates accepting the public financing limits, thereby doubling the influence of money in the targeted Supreme Court races.
Case in point is the 2006 race for the Supreme Court between Robin Hudson, a Democrat, and Ann Marie Calabria, a Republican. Hudson barely defeated Calabria 50.6% to 49.4%, spending $273,759 to Calabria’s $291,056. Hudson not only benefited from the $259,101 spent by FairJudges.net on ads naming her as a “fair judge,” she benefited from the non-partisan elections bill passed by Democrats.
Prior to non-partisan elections, Calabria would have had a partisan advantage, as voters consistently chose Republicans over Democrats in Supreme Court races in the ten years leading up to 2006, even when the GOP candidates were outspent. North Carolinians wanted a conservative appellate judiciary.
The News & Observer published a story October 31, 2006, “TV Ads Highlight 4 Candidates,” reporting that FairJudges.net was organized by Scott Falmien, former Executive Director of the state Democratic Party. According to the N&O, a FairJudges.net press release “listed donors, mainly Democratic-leaning entities and individual: the NC Democratic Party, the N.C. Academy of Trial Lawyers PAC, the Teamsters’ political committee, several trial lawyers, and others.”
It was a political trap.
Anticipated demographic changes give Democrats a growing advantage
The conservative leanings of the current NC Supreme Court on matters involving politics and reapportionment challenges can be seen in recent rulings:
- Dickson v. Rucho: Ruled in favor of Republicans on the matter of whether email between legislative leaders and redistricting attorneys was protected under attorney client privilege.
- Ruled that Republican Justice Paul Newby did not have to recuse himself from redistricting cases just because of independent expenditures made in 2012 on behalf of his campaign.
However, remember, North Carolina is a purple, battleground state trending blue. Blue is Democratic. Most of the growth in the next several decades will be in urban areas; Democrat-friendly areas.
If Republicans want to keep the majority on the appellate courts, they should:
- Pass legislation, like the Democrats, to give Republicans advantages in judicial races
- Continue to fund independent expenditure committees, like the Democrats started in 2006
Lady Justice may be blindfolded, and those scales she holds may be balanced, but if the case impacts the outcome of political races, Lady Justice will take that blindfold off to check the political party of the plaintiffs … then she will adjust the balance of the scales accordingly.
Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here
If Republicans are serious about minority outreach, or “welcoming in” minorities, then they must begin by forming and funding committees and hiring consultants that are representative of the groups they seek to welcome. Only then will they be in a position to craft a message that shows women and minority groups that they care; that caring is at the core of conservatism.
Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism. Otherwise, what you are really saying is, “It’s time we put people aside and do what’s right!”
It’s Time We Put People Aside and Do What’s Right! Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism.
“The typical Republican minority outreach program is a sham. It’s like the Republican ads with one or two African Americans or Hispanics standing around the candidate with a bunch of white people. Like the Minority Outreach staffer with no budget.”
John Davis Political Report, January 25, 2013
Friday, January 25, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 4 1:13 pm
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, in his speech last night to the Republican National Committee at their winter meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, said, “We must reject the notion that demography is destiny, the pathetic and simplistic notion that skin pigmentation dictates voter behavior. …The first step in getting voters to like you is to demonstrate that you like them.”
Many American voters, especially minority groups, think that Republicans do not like them. Do not care about them. They think that Republicans are more about ideology than people.
When minority voters hear Republican leaders speak passionately about immigration, deficit spending, the national debt, taxes, entitlements, jobs and the economy, what they actually hear them say is, It’s time we put people aside and do what’s right. Conservatism over caring.
Two weeks ago, I began a series of reports highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The three rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
Today, I am writing about Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism.
The history of RNC minority outreach is a sham
Betsy Cochrane, from Clemmons, North Carolina, former GOP state Senator and first Republican woman to serve as Minority Leader (1985-1986), told me once in an interview, “The biggest problem facing Republican women today is Republican men.”
I thought about that this morning when I read that the RNC is planning to get serious about outreach to women, African Americans, Asian Americans and Hispanics.
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus plans to say to the RNC attendees in Charlotte, according to the text of his remarks, “Simple outreach a few months before an election will not suffice.” He adds, “In fact, let’s stop talking about ‘reaching out’ – and start working on welcoming in.”
If Priebus and the RNC are serious about diversity and “welcoming in” women and minorities, the critical questions they must first address are:
- What is the gender, race and ethnicity of the strategic planning committee and consultants?
- What is the budget for the “welcoming in” plan?
For decades, most Republican campaign committees and candidates have had a minority outreach program. However, more often than not, the minority outreach program consisted of a “Minority Outreach Coordinator,” usually a low-paid, minority staffer, with no budget for outreaching.
The typical Republican minority outreach program is a sham. It’s like the Republican ads with one or two African Americans standing around the candidate with a bunch of white people.
Are white, male Republican leaders and consultants planning how best to reach out to women or African Americans? Are non-Asian or non-Hispanic consultants helping the RNC with their strategy for reaching Asian American voters or Hispanic voters?
It’s no wonder Republicans are having a problem with minorities in America.
The most important rule for minority outreach
The most important rule I learned about campaigning for minority voter support during my three decades as a political professional I learned from Bethel Nathan, an African American Republican consultant from Houston, Texas.
Bethel taught me in the early 1980s that if you want to understand what moves black voters, talk to someone black; don’t rely on white political consultants. Hiring someone white to plan your outreach to African Americans would be like hiring a Hispanic consultant to find out what moves Asian voters.
Minorities in America are still generations away from the day that unique cultural histories and sensitivities and nuances no longer matter. If the RNC wants effective advice on how to communicate their “welcoming in” message to a particular racial or ethnic group, or women or young people, they need to make sure that their strategic planners and consultants are representative of that group.
Andrew Young, former Mayor of Atlanta and UN Ambassador, a Democrat, was so incensed by being kept out of the inner circle of the 1984 presidential campaign of Walter Mondale, the Democratic Party’s nominee who served as Vice President under President Jimmy Carter, that he described Mondale’s strategists as a bunch of “smart-ass white boys.”
Mayor Young hit a home run with black voters by expressing his frustration with a fundamental flaw in far too many campaign organizations: White guys doing the minority outreach.
The fact is, most white consultants, Democrats and Republicans, are competitive entrepreneurs who do not want to share the campaign’s lucrative advertising deals. They guarantee themselves the greatest influence over the campaign and the largest cut of the campaign budget if they don’t have any competition in the minority outreach inner circle where the planning is done.
Throughout his professional life, until his death last December, Bethel Nathan tried to persuade white Republicans that they can break the lock-step loyalty of black voters to the Democratic Party if they will focus on two words: respect and recognition.
Nathan’s message fell on deaf ears. White Republican leaders, including those at the RNC, guided by the advice of white Republican consultants, determined that white Republican candidates had no chance of getting black votes no matter how much effort was made or how much money was spent.
Thus, the Republican minority outreach effort has always been token; the budget minimal. A sham.
If Republicans are serious about minority outreach, or “welcoming in” minorities, then they must begin by forming and funding committees and hiring consultants that are representative of the groups they seek to welcome. Only then will they be in a position to craft a message that shows women and minority groups that they care; that caring is at the core of conservatism.
Rule #4:Caring must be at the core of conservatism. Otherwise, what you are really saying is, “It’s time we put people aside and do what’s right!”
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity; and, the best hope for resurgent Democrats.
“Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity.” John Davis Political Report, 1/17/2013
Thursday, January 17, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 3 10:13 pm
Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. It’s true nationally and here in North Carolina. They are more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than anti-government, more independent than partisan, more diverse and more socially tolerant.
There are 28 member mayors of the North Carolina Metropolitan Mayors Coalition, representing the municipalities with populations over 30,000. Only 7 of the 28 are Republicans.
Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity; and, the best hope for resurgent Democrats.
Here are a few compelling North Carolina voter registration/voter turnout facts:
- Wake/Mecklenburg counties cast 934,265 votes last fall, same as the lowest 61 counties
- Half of President Obama’s total votes last fall came from only 8 of 100 counties
- Since 1993, half of North Carolina’s 3 million new voters registered in 10 counties
Last week, I began what will be a series of reports on How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like the Democrats). The first report dealt with Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable; and Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors.
Today, I am writing about Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
Big Counties Dominate N.C. Politics; Big States Dominate U.S.
It is startling to think that only 5 states of 50 were needed for President Obama to cross the halfway mark to the 270 electoral votes needed for a second term. California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan gave Obama 140 votes.
It is even more startling to think that only 8 North Carolina counties out of 100 were needed for half of President Obama’s total votes in the 2012 General Election. Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham, Forsyth, Cumberland, Buncombe, and Orange counties gave President Obama 1,080,276 votes of his 2,156,025 North Carolina General Election total.
Those same eight counties gave GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 722,772 votes; 357,504 fewer votes than they gave President Obama.
According to national General Election exit polling analysis conducted by the New York Times:
- Obama defeated Romney by 40 points in all U.S. “Big cities,” 69% to 29%
- Obama defeated Romney by 18 points in all U.S. “Mid-sized cities,” 58% to 40%
- In NC, Obama defeated Romney by 21 points in our “Big cities,” 60% to 39%
- In NC, Obama defeated Romney by 19 points in our “Mid-sized cities,” 59% to 40%
Granted, Romney won the U.S. “Small cities” by 14 points and “Suburbs” by 2 points (NC “Small cities” by 15 points and “Suburbs” by 9 points) and carried reliably Republican rural areas throughout the state and nation. But the fact remains that the big numbers are in the metropolitan areas.
- In November 2012, 4,501,128 votes were cast in NC out of 6,641,585 registered (68%)
- Half of those 4,501,128 votes were cast in 13 counties; the other half in 87 counties
- Wake/Mecklenburg cast 934,265 votes in 2012, the same as the lowest 61 counties
Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. It’s a fact nationally and here in North Carolina. That’s why Rule #3 is so critical to the longevity of North Carolina Republicans: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
McCrory Just the Man to Help the GOP with Rule #3
Governor Pat McCrory, the state’s first Republican chief executive in 20 years, was not born in North Carolina. Like most of today’s metropolitan voters, the McCrory’s moved here from another state (Ohio) because of economic opportunity.
Since 1993, North Carolina’s registered voters have grown from about 3.5 million to a little over 6.5 million, for a net growth of 3.06 million. Two-thirds of those voters did not come from the South.
Half of the new voters since 1993 registered in 10 counties: Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Cumberland, Durham, Forsyth, Union, New Hanover, Buncombe and Johnston.
Here is a startling political reality check: Wake and Mecklenburg counties alone had a combined net growth of 768,224 voters in the last 20 years, the same as the bottom 73 counties.
Pat McCrory served seven terms as mayor of Charlotte, our largest city and one of the most dynamic in the country. How is it possible that a Republican could be so successful in a big city like Charlotte when most big cities prefer Democrats?
McCrory was a successful big city mayor because he knew that North Carolinians who choose to live in cities demand a unique set of quality of life services: city parks and aquatic centers; major league sports arenas and stadiums; greenways and efficient public transportation; children’s museums and a public investment in the arts.
“We’re at the intersection of government and Main Street,” said Governor McCrory in his inaugural address on Saturday, January 12, 2013. What makes him just the right man to help North Carolina Republicans with Rule #3 is that he knows that “main street” for most North Carolinians runs through a metropolitan city.
Republicans have only 31% of the registered voters in North Carolina today. You need 50% to win statewide races. That’s why the state Republican leaders must position themselves to recruit from metropolitan voters.
Rule #3 is critical to the longevity of North Carolina Republicans: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here JND
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities. No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years. Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
“Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.” John Davis Political Report, 1/11/2013
Friday, January 11, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 2 2:13 pm
The 114-year political winning streak for North Carolina Democrats ended Wednesday, January 9, 2013, with the swearing in of our state’s 170 state legislators. On that day, the political power of North Carolina Republicans over state government became absolute. Republican Governor, Speaker of the House and President Pro Tem of the Senate. Super majorities in both chambers.
Democrats had absolute power over North Carolina state government for all but four years since 1898. That was 1995 to 1999, when Republicans had a majority in the North Carolina House. A prized seat at the three-cornered table where all of the state budgeting decisions are made.
Granted, there were two Republican governors during the 20th Century. But they had no veto power. A Republican governor without veto power in the 20th Century had no power.
So, how long will the North Carolina Republican Party keep their absolute power? Can they match the Democrats’ winning streak of 114 Years? What are the rules for political longevity?
Rule #1: Always, always remember that you are vulnerable
In The Art of War, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu teaches the importance of defending your position on the battlefield until it is safe to change to a more advantageous position. Don’t create opportunities for the enemy by making yourself vulnerable.
North Carolina Democrats never seemed to realize that they were creating opportunities for Republicans by making themselves vulnerable.
There were plenty of warning signs. Democrats should have known:
- A 10-year rash of embarrassing criminal indictments would scare off even the most loyal contributors;
- Allowing their legislative caucuses to become ideologically warped to the far left of center would scare off business leaders;
- If your leaders hog the glory and don’t build a deep bench of farm-team candidates you will wind up without a new generation when needed;
- If you stand with the U.S. President and his personal agenda (healthcare) and against the voters and their agenda (jobs and the economy), you are going get into a world of hurt. You may even lose the opportunity to remap political districts.
- Buying elections with obligatory loyalty from resentful contributors won’t stand the test of a strong challenge if you are vulnerable.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It makes you think you are not vulnerable.
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities.
No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
Rule #2: Criminal indictments will scare off contributors
Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding. That’s what happened to Democrats during the last ten years.
- Federal prosecutor George Holding’s investigations into the campaign finance violations dried up many sources of Democratic contributions, especially in Eastern North Carolina.
- Prominent Eastern North Carolina Democratic fundraisers like Lanny Wilson, who resigned from the North Carolina Board of Transportation after being caught up in the investigation into former Gov. Mike Easley’s campaign contributions, is a case in point.
- Investigations into campaign finance violations by Gov. Mike Easley were so pervasive over such a long period of time, leading to indictments, convictions and many embarrassing revelations involving everyone from Easley and his wife to prominent supporters, that major Democratic donors put their checkbooks back in their pockets.
- Gov. Beverly Perdue and her campaign staff, who also benefited from the fundraising muscle of Eastern North Carolina Democratic bag men, came under criminal investigation by federal and state prosecutors, leading to additional scrutiny of prominent Democratic fundraisers and ultimately more indictments and convictions.
Everyone was subpoenaed.
Here’s the problem: Everyone was subpoenaed. Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.
In addition to the national scandal involving North Carolina’s own U.S. Senator John Edwards, arguably the most despised Democratic leader in America in the last decade, our state has been embarrassed time and again by the indictments and convictions of Democrats like former state Sen. and U.S. Cong. Frank Ballance, former House Speaker Jim Black, former Commissioner of Agriculture Meg Scott Phipps, former state Rep. Thomas Wright, former Governor Mike Easley and his administration’s lawyer Ruffin Poole.
Last year, two former members of Governor Perdue’s campaign staff, her 2008 campaign finance director and her Western North Carolina office director, plead guilty to campaign finance violations.
Every Democrat on the list above violated Rule #1. They didn’t think they were vulnerable. As a result, they suffered the consequences of Rule #2: Indictments scare off contributors.
Republicans who think they can manage their newfound absolute power better than the Democrats should remember that just last July, one of their own, former GOP Rep. Steven LaRoque from Kinston, resigned from the House in light of federal criminal indictments.
Who will be next? The one that thinks he is not vulnerable.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
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The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants.
They Beat Them at the Door; the New Door. How geeks became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
“They lived in the cellular shadows, effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.” Time magazine’s Michael Sherer, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters
Friday, January 4, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 1 3:13 pm
Living in Cellular Shadows; Immune to Get-Out-The-Vote Efforts
My wife and I have eight adult children, which includes three spouses, ages 24 to 32. They are among the best informed voters in America; university degrees, world travelers, tech savvy. Yet not one of the eight has cable TV, a home phone, a home radio or subscribes to a newspaper.
All of our children voted last fall, yet they did not receive a single Get-Out-The-Vote call from any campaign, national or state. They were among those who, “lived in the cellular shadows,” wrote Time magazine’s Michael Sherer in his story, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters, “effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.”
Sherer’s story disclosed for the first time a near disaster for the Obama reelection campaign in the fall of 2012. “Half the campaign’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 had no listed phone number.” How are you going to turn out one of your most loyal constituencies if you can’t find their phone numbers? The answer? Facebook apps.
- 85% of Obama’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone number were found via a Facebook Friends app
- 1 million Obama backers used the app on Facebook, permitting the Chicago HQ analytics geeks to look at their Facebook Friends
- 600,000 Obama supporters used the Facebook app to persuade 5 million of their Facebook Friends to register, contribute and/or vote
- Obama team registered 1.8 million new voters door-to-door; 1.1 million online
Chicago-based data analytics geeks gave President Barack Obama his margin of victory by identifying a powerful new means of “door-to-door contact” by friends: Facebook Friends apps on smartphones and tablets. Friends contacting friends. The new door.
Obama’s Institutional Advantage Over Romney and His Super PACs
Read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, hired an analytics team five times the size of the 2008 operations team.
The team of dozens of data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.”
The Obama megafile allowed the campaign:
- To predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- To rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- To predict the types of people who would more likely give money online or by mail
- To predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- To operate and invest with maximum efficiency
- To raise a record $1 billion war chest
- To turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
From the Time story: “We ran the election 66,000 times every night,” said a senior official, describing the computer simulations the campaign ran to figure out Obama’s odds of winning each swing state. “And every morning we got the spit-out — here are your chances of winning these states. And that is how we allocated resources.”
“I want to say one word to you. Just one word.”
In the 1967 Academy Award winning movie The Graduate, starring Dustin Hoffman, one of the top 100 most memorable movie one-liners was produced. It was, “Plastics.”
The film was a coming-of-age story about a recent college graduate who was struggling with the pressures of an older, corrupting generation. “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, to Benjamin, the new graduate, “Are you listening? Plastics,” he said, “There is a great future in plastics.”
If I could write the screenplay for a modern-day remake of The Graduate based on the 2012 elections, the dialogue would be: “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, “Are you listening? Geeks,” he said, “There is a great future in geeks.”
After reading numerous accounts of how Obama’s Chicago team built an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstars, I am persuaded that it was the geeks, the data-mining, analytical, app creating geeks, who became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants. It wasn’t the mobile devices like smartphones and tablets; it was the geeks who discovered how apps can allow friends to knock on “new doors” of friends. Digital doors.
Pew Research Center reports in The Demographics of Mobile News, that young people have “largely abandoned the print news product,” preferring instead to get their news on smartphones and tablets. Another Pew study, In Changing News Landscape, Even Television is Vulnerable, concluded that, “Among the youngest Americans – those younger than 25 – substantially more get news digitally than from traditional news sources (60% vs. 43%).
If you want to contact them, to persuade them, to get them to volunteer or contribute to your campaign, to get them to go out and vote, you are going to have to geek up.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
John Davis Political Report Awarded “Top 10 Political Influencers” by Campaigns & Elections; Biggest Winners and Losers in 2012; Happy New Year! “Davis is actually unaffiliated.” News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME, 12/21/2012 Friday, December 28, 2012 Vol. V, No. 43 7:13 am Top 10 North Carolina “Political Influencers Award” The John Davis Political Report
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John Davis Political Report Awarded “Top 10 Political Influencers” by Campaigns & Elections; Biggest Winners and Losers in 2012; Happy New Year!
“Davis is actually unaffiliated.” News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME, 12/21/2012
Friday, December 28, 2012 Vol. V, No. 43 7:13 am
Top 10 North Carolina “Political Influencers Award”
The John Davis Political Report has been named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
A special thanks to the News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME editors for clarifying that I am not affiliated with a political party. “Davis is actually unaffiliated,” they noted in the news story.
The other nine recipients of the North Carolina “Political Influencers Award” are: Republicans Tom Fetzer, lobbyist and former Raleigh mayor and state GOP chairman; lobbyist Dana Simpson; and consultants Carter Wrenn and Chris Sinclair. Democrats include political consultants Brad Crone and Mike Davis; strategist Scott Falmlen, former state Democratic Party executive director; lobbyist Bruce Thompson, and Andrew Whalen, consultant for the Blue Dog Coalition and a former state Democratic Party executive director.
North Carolina Republican Party Biggest Winner in 2012
In 2012, the North Carolina Republican Party neutralized Obama’s historic 2008 turnout advantage, thereby making this state the only swing state that Obama lost. The state GOP invested early in a major commitment to personal voter contact, increasing the number of regional headquarters from 12 in 2010 to 24 in 2012; from 8 paid Get-Out-The-Vote staff in 2010 to 67 paid staffers in 2012.
Here is the short list of accomplishments in 2012 by the North Carolina GOP:
- Historic dominance of all three branches of state government
- Landslide Republican gubernatorial win: McCrory 55%; Dalton 43%; Howe 2%
- Super majorities in NC Senate (33/17) and NC House (77/43)
- Republican Lt. Governor to preside over GOP Senate
- Republican majority congressional delegation (9/4)
- Landslide passage of Marriage Amendment in May
- Non-partisan Republican majority on NC Supreme Court
- County Commissioners: 54 GOP County Boards; 44 Democratic; 2 Non-Partisan
- Only “Swing” state not carried by President Obama in 2012 Presidential race
Business & Conservative Super PACs Biggest Losers in 2012 US Elections
Conservative Super PACs turned out to be the biggest losers of the 2012 election year. The biggest of the biggest losers? National Rifle Association. According to an analysis by the Sunlight Foundation of the $1.3 billion spent independently in 2012, the NRA had a 0.81% return on an investment of $12 million. Here are a few of the biggest losers:
- Nat’l Rifle Assn: 0.83% return on $11 million
- American Crossroads (Karl Rove) 1.29% return on $105 million spent on campaigns
- US Chamber: 6.9% return on $33 million
- Crossroads GPS: 14.3% return on $71 million
- National Republican Congressional Committee: 31.88% return on $65 million
- FreedomWorks (Tea Party): 24.5% return on investment of $20 million
- Club for Growth: 41.8% return on $17 million
John Davis Political Report Vol. VI Begins Thursday, January 3
The John Davis Political Report will begin its sixth calendar-year volume of reports on Thursday, January 3, 2013. The first report is a thorough examination of the tactical advantage achieved by those who invested early and well in a voter registration and turnout operation, like President Obama and the North Carolina Republican Party.
From the inaugural address by Governor-Elect Pat McCrory to every action taken during the upcoming session of the General Assembly, political consequences will be foremost on the minds of those who wish to continue to serve after the next elections.
It’s the American way. After all, you can’t lead if you can’t get elected.
– END of VOL. V, 2012 –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
Happy New Year!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep “What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?” Jesus,
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep
“What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”
Jesus, New Testament, Luke 15:4-7
Friday, November 9, 2012 Vol. V, No. 42 12:13 pm
Parable of the Lost Sheep
I can’t tell you how much I appreciate you for reading my reports during this election cycle.
Politics is my life’s passion. Analysis. Writing. Speaking. To have people that I respect greatly read my reports is the highest form of professional fulfillment. Thank you.
Since Tuesday night, I have been stewing over my “lost sheep,” the one race that I got wrong at the end: the U.S. Presidential race. The lost sheep analogy is from the New Testament book of Luke, where Jesus tells the following parable: “What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”
Although my North Carolina forecasts were dead on, including my forecast since Labor Day 2011 that Obama would not carry the state again, I changed my forecast that Obama would win the U.S. Presidential race in early October. Mistake. My lost sheep.
I got all 13 congressional races right; 47 of 49 state Senate races right, 114 of 120 state House races right. I got the Governor and Council of State right; and Supreme Court Justice Newby.
But, the lost sheep.
We Knew the Tie Would be Broken by Turnout
I had the U.S. Presidential race right from Labor Day 2011 until October 4, 2012. That’s the day after the first debate when I saw, for the first time, Republicans united and excited about their nominee Mitt Romney.
In my mind, excitement and unity meant momentum and volunteers and turnout.
The race had been tied since the national conventions in Tampa and Charlotte. The tie would be broken by turnout. Turnout was driven by unity and enthusiastic volunteers.
Wrong.
Granted, polling confirmed that Romney voters were twice as excited as McCain voters were in 2008. But in 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.
Polls also showed that young voters, women, Latino’s and even African Americans were less excited about Barack Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008.
In 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.
Turnout in 2012 was driven by a strategic and tactical advantage; an early investment by the Obama campaign in the most sophisticated targeting analytical software in political history. An investment in building the most complete and accurate list of supporters ever. An investment in strategically placed headquarters from which to manage the turnout operation. An investment in a field staff to coordinate volunteers as they went about the daily grind of voter turnout.
Conventional wisdom said that there was no way President Obama could get a higher number of African American voters in 2012 than his record-breaking 2008 turnout. Yet in critical states like Ohio, African American turnout increased from 11% of all voters in 2008 to 15% Tuesday.
If African American turnout in Ohio was the same as 2008, Romney would have won the state. What principle did the Obama campaign apply? The lost sheep. Every Obama vote was found.
North Carolina Republicans Neutralized Obama’s 2008 Turnout Advantage
The Republican National Committee made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.
Big mistake.
The Republican independent expenditure leaders like Karl Rove made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.
A $400 million mistake.
Fortunately for North Carolina Republicans, the leadership of the state party, led by former Congressman Robin Hayes and Executive Director Scott Laster, recognized the strategic and tactical importance of neutralizing the Democrats’ 2008 turnout advantage with a well-organized and well-funded turnout operation in 2012. Turnout.
They started early. They doubled the regional headquarters. They tripled the paid staff. They had ten times the number of volunteers doing the hard work of turning out voters. They worked together. They worked tirelessly.
The Romney campaign. The Pat McCrory gubernatorial campaign. The state Senate and House legislative caucus campaigns. The Congressional campaigns. The Council of State and Judicial campaigns. All united by the state Republican Party into a turnout organization that neutralized the Obama 2008 turnout advantage in North Carolina.
The proof was in the 2012 registration and early voting turnout. Example: Romney got 95,000 more early votes in North Carolina than McCain in 2008. Obama only won by 14,117 votes in 2008 out of 4.3 million. Turnout advantage neutralized. Swing state lost.
Thanks to solid candidates, smart political war generals, savvy and committed staff, a great team of fundraisers, fair and legal legislative and congressional maps, and a well-coordinated turnout organization with thousands of volunteers doing the hard work of winning campaigns, North Carolina Republicans will dominate all three branches of state government, executive, legislative and judicial, for the first time since 1898.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina House: 77 Republicans; 43 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Vol. V, No. 41 3:13 pm NC House Races: Forecast vs Results In the new 120-member state House, Republicans will have 77 seats to 43 for Democrats. The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 73 Republicans,
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North Carolina House: 77 Republicans; 43 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority
Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Vol. V, No. 41 3:13 pm
NC House Races: Forecast vs Results
In the new 120-member state House, Republicans will have 77 seats to 43 for Democrats. The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 73 Republicans, 47 Democrats.
- Republicans started with 25 candidates with no opposition
- Republicans won 44 of the 44 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Republicans won 3 of the 4 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
- Republicans won 4 of the 8 races in which the Democrat was “Favored”
- Republicans won 1 of the 18 races in which the Democrat was the “Likely Winner”
Democrats started with 21 candidates with no opposition
- Democrats won 17 of the 18 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Democrats won 4 of the 8 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
- Democrats won 1 of the 4 races in which the Republican was “Favored”
Click here to see all 120 House races with winners v/s forecasts.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority Congratulations to all of the winners! And, to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes. Democrats. Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone. We know
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North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority
Congratulations to all of the winners! And, to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes.
Democrats. Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.
We know exactly what you are feeling right now. It hurts. Really bad.
Don’t quit. This state needs good people like you.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Vol. V, No. 40 11:13 am
UPDATE with RUNOFF RESULTS: December 6, 2012 Vol. V, No. 40 2:13 pm
Maps + Money = Majority
Two years ago, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly for the first time since 1898.
They had exclusive legislative power. Power meant money.
One year ago, on July 27, 2011, legislative district maps, drawn by Republicans for the first time in over a hundred years, were enacted into law by the North Carolina General Assembly.
Republicans lowered themselves to the standards for fairness set by Democrats over the decades and drew themselves a big advantage in the number of legislative districts likely to elect GOP candidates.
Yesterday, November 6, 2012, legislative election results were predictable. Maps + Money = Majority.
Maps mean you have a structural advantage; more friendly districts. Money means you can hire the best political consultants and field organizers and provide your candidates with the resources they need to gain an advantage and win their campaigns.
NC Senate Races: Forecast v/s Results
In the new 50-member state Senate, Republicans will have 33 seats to 17 for Democrats. The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats and 1 toss-up race.
- Republicans started with 11 candidates with no opposition
- Republicans won 17 of the 18 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Republicans won the 2 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
- Republicans won the 2 races in which the Democrat was projected as “Favored”
- Republicans won the only “Toss up” race
- Democrats started with 7 candidates with no opposition
- Democrats won all 9 of the races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Democrats won 0 of the 2 races in which they were projected as “Favored.”
Click here to see the UPDATED list of all 50 Senate races with winners v/s forecasts. (The new North Carolina House is now 77 Republicans and 43 Democrats. Details will follow.)
Congratulations to all of the winners!
And to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes. Democrats. Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.
We all know exactly what you are feeling right now. It hurts. Really bad.
Don’t quit. This state needs good people like you.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Early Voting Stats Shows 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, Obama no longer has the early voting advantage that he enjoyed in 2008. As for North Carolina in 2012, Democrats are down 3.85% in early
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Early Voting Stats Shows 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney
According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, Obama no longer has the early voting advantage that he enjoyed in 2008.
As for North Carolina in 2012, Democrats are down 3.85% in early voting turnout compared to 2008, and Republicans are up 1.46%. That’s a net GOP gain of 5.28%. John Davis Political Report, 11/5/2012
Monday, November 5, 2012 Vol. V, No. 39 1:13 pm
If Mitt Romney has neutralized President Obama’s 2008 early voting advantage, he will win.
Obama’s strategic advantage has always been the ground game: voter registration and turnout. That was how he won in 2008. A ground game requires tens of thousands of enthusiastic volunteers. In 2008, Obama had them and the GOP didn’t. In 2012, the GOP has seized the enthusiastic volunteers advantage, thereby neutralizing the early voting turnout advantage.
According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, it was anticipated that Obama would not achieve his 2008 early voting advantage.
Romano cited a Pew Research Center report that says neither Obama nor Romney “has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”
Further evidence of the shifting early voting fortunes favoring Romney can be found in a study by George Mason University of requested mail ballots in key swing states. Example:
In Florida, 406,634 registered Democrats have not returned their mail ballots compared to 362,920 Republicans. In comparison, registered Democrats have returned 700,970 mail ballots compared to 781,043 Republicans.
As to overall early voting turnout, according to the United States Elections Project, maintained by George Mason University, a total of 31,660,358 Americans voted early in 2012, down from the 40,592,111 who voted early in 2008 (30.6% of 132,653,958 voted early in 2008).
Although North Carolina has about 120,000 more early voters than in 2008, the percent of the total vote is less (41.8% in 2008; 41.3% in 2012) due to overall registration growing from 6.3 million voters to 6.6 million during the past 4 year.
North Carolina Early Voting Shifts 5.3% in Favor of Republicans
As for North Carolina in 2012, a loss of 3.85% among Democratic early voting turnout compared to 2008, and a gain of 1.46% for Republicans compared to 2008, has yielded a net GOP gain of 5.28%.
2008 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,618,419 of 6,264,733 (41.8%)
- Democrats 51.52%
- Republicans 30.01%
- Unaffiliateds 18.4%
- Libertarians
2012 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,738,947 of 6,631,904 (41.3%)
- Democrats 47.67%
- Republicans 31.44
- Unaffiliateds 20.66%
- Libertarians 0.22%
In addition to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, a great website for seeing early voting stats is www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/, which is maintained by the Civitas Institute.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND