North Carolina: The Jurassic Park of Business and Agribusiness Democrats. Extinct. Caused by one of the most avoidable political disasters in state history. North Carolina business and agricultural leaders did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left them. John Davis Political Report, July 30, 2012 Post: Monday, July 30, 2012 Vol. V,
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North Carolina: The Jurassic Park of Business and Agribusiness Democrats. Extinct. Caused by one of the most avoidable political disasters in state history.
North Carolina business and agricultural leaders did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left them. John Davis Political Report, July 30, 2012
Post: Monday, July 30, 2012 Vol. V, No. 24 11:13 am
Why did business/agribusiness Democrats become extinct?
This report is a continuation of the John Davis Political Report series on the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party, deficiencies that severely limit their ability to keep Republicans from dominating all branches of state government after the 2012 elections.
Thus far, deficiencies have included a loss of political power, loss of the political fundraising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, and loss of strong leaders.
Today, I am adding the loss of the North Carolina business and agribusiness communities. I consider this the greatest loss. A statewide loss of influential leaders. Contributions.
North Carolina has become the Jurassic Park of pro-business Democrats. An extinct species.
Democrats ignored the warnings. They were cautioned that the balancing influence of business Democrats in their caucuses was needed to keep business/agribusiness on their side.
Now it’s too late. They didn’t recruit business/agribusiness candidates. Today, only 8 of 71 Democrats in the North Carolina General Assembly have pro-business ratings.
Simply put, North Carolina business and agricultural leaders did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left North Carolina business and agricultural leaders.
It is one of the most avoidable political disasters in state history.
The proof is in the voting records; Democratic numbers just don’t add up
Of course, all Democrats will tell you that they are pro-business/agribusiness. But listening to a liberal Democrat insisting that they are pro-business is like listening to a conservative Republican insisting that they are pro-environment. Examine the voting records.
The Senate: Based on the most recent business ratings of North Carolina Senators and House members conducted by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation:
- Of 19 Senate Democrats, 2 have business ratings above 70% (highest category)
- 12 of 19 Senate Democrats have business ratings below 55% (lowest category) (Note: Remaining 5 Senate Democrats have scores between the highest and lowest categories)
Problem: When it’s time to elect the caucus leaders, which ideological group will prevail? The group of 2 senators in the highest business category or the group of 12 in the lowest?
Now you know why Senator Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, with a business rating of 39.7%, was elected leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus. And, now you know why business and agricultural interests lost confidence in Senate Democrats.
The House: Business/agribusiness began to lose confidence in House Democrats in 2007 when Rep. Joe Hackney, D-Orange, was elected Speaker. Hackney, with a life-long record of alliances with groups opposing the business position on issues, has a business rating of 16.1%.
- Of 52 House Democrats, 6 have business ratings above 70% (highest category)
- 42 of 52 House Democrats have business ratings below 55%, (lowest category)
(Note: Remaining 4 House Democrats have scores between the highest and lowest categories)
With half the House Democrats having business ratings between 29.6% and 8.2%, it’s little wonder that Hackney, with a business rating of 16.1%, was elected caucus leader.
The proof is in the voting records; Republican numbers are off the charts
The Republicans: Based on the most recent business ratings of North Carolina Senators and House members conducted by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation:
- Of 31 Senate Republicans, 100% have business ratings above 70% (highest category)
- Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, has a business rating of 96%
- Of 68 House Republicans, 67 have business ratings above 70%
- House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, has a business rating of 96%
Who will rescue North Carolina Democrats in 2012?
Gallup released a national study on Thursday, July 26, 2012 showing that business owners in the U.S. are now among the least approving (35%) of the job President Obama is doing. Only one other occupational group thinks less of Obama (34%): farmers. Business/agribusiness.
Although Obama is certainly most responsible for spoiling the relationship between Washington and the business/agriculture community with regulatory overreach and anti-business political rhetoric and gamesmanship, Democratic legislative leaders in Raleigh are most responsible for spoiling their party’s 100-year-old mutually beneficial relationship with business/agribusiness.
So, who will come to the rescue of North Carolina Democrats in 2012? President Obama is on track to becoming the first president in history to raise less money than his opponent because he alienated business/agribusiness interests. Democrats in the North Carolina General Assembly are on track to becoming the first class since the 19th Century to raise less money than Republicans because they alienated business/agribusiness interests.
By alienating business/agribusiness, the federal and state Democratic parties have lost their most reliable source of political contributions. It’s their greatest loss.
North Carolina has become the Jurassic Park of pro-business Democrats. Extinct.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
UPDATE: North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in July 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in July 2012. No power, no money. John Davis Political Report, July 16, 2012 UPDATE Post: Monday, July 16, 2012 Vol. V, No. 23 3:13
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UPDATE: North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in July 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in July 2012. No power, no money. John Davis Political Report, July 16, 2012
UPDATE Post: Monday, July 16, 2012 Vol. V, No. 23 3:13 pm
Structural Deficiencies Seen in State Party Fundraising Results
“The North Carolina Democratic Party … is well behind in the race for money” AP, 7/13/2012
Last Wednesday, July 11, the John Davis Political Report concluded that if the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government.
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story reported the following campaign fundraising results from the latest reports filed last week with the State Board of Elections:
- NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Game Changing Structural Deficiencies Seen in Legislative Leaders’ Fundraising
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash. Last week, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in last week’s campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand. Four years ago, then Republican House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported $43,312 cash.
If you will recall, I reported last week that Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, reported $714,000 cash.
Add last week’s report to this one and you will see why I continue to believe that for the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton … or anyone else for that matter.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012 Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm Ladies and
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North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012
Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm
Ladies and gentlemen, the Governor of the Great State of North Carolina and Mrs. McCrory
If the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government. For the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
In 2012, for the first time since the 1800s, Republicans will be fighting from a position of partisan strength afforded by power, money, maps, message, momentum, strong leadership and candidates, and most importantly, party unity.
Conversely, for the first time since the 1800s, Democrats will be fighting from a position of partisan weakness resulting from a loss of political power, loss of the political fund raising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, loss of unity, loss of strong, ideologically flexible political leaders, and the loss of a united base.
Case in point: The Governor’s Race. Today, July 11, polling and campaign fundraising results were announced that put the governor’s race solidly in the “McCrory’s to lose” category.
- July 11 report filed by Walter Dalton with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he has only $714,000 as of July 1, compared to McCrory’s $4.4 million.
- July 11 poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat polling firm, shows GOP nominee Pat McCrory ahead of Democrat nominee Walter Dalton by 7 points, 43% to 36%.
- McCrory leads among Independent voters by 47% to 25%.
- McCrory has the support of 79% of Republicans; only 63% of Democrats support Dalton.
McCrory’s Strength as Candidate Seen in during Historic Democrat-friendly Year
In 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory ONLY because of a structurally sound Democratic Party, a 2-to-1 spending advantage and the commitment made by the Obama campaign in North Carolina.
The Obama campaign spent millions on a statewide organization operating out of 47 headquarters. A paid staff of 400 coordinated the work of 10,000 volunteers. The Obama ground game broke all records for new registered voters and early voting turnout. They spent $1.7 million just on straight ticket voter education.
However, despite outspending McCrory $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic voter registration and turnout year for Democrats, Perdue barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
That is not just a sign of how weak Beverly Perdue was in 2008, it is a sign of how strong Pat McCrory was in 2008. Now, it is Pat McCrory with the spending advantage and a structurally sound Republican Party backing him up. McCrory has $4.4 million cash as of July 1, 2012. Dalton has $714,000. Game over in the governor’s race.
Furthermore, the North Carolina Democratic Party is not structurally capable of stopping a Republican stampede in 2012 from the top of the ballot down. I will develop the topic of structural deficiencies in the next report.
Meanwhile, North Carolina Governor’s race is McCrory’s to lose, and Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Why Romney Must Distance Himself from George W. Bush, the President with a Job Approval as Low as Nixon’s after Watergate “Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too.” Peggy Noonan, The Long Race Has Begun, Wall
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Why Romney Must Distance Himself from George W. Bush, the President with a Job Approval as Low as Nixon’s after Watergate
“Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too.” Peggy Noonan, The Long Race Has Begun, Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2012
Monday, July 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 21 2:13 pm
The Bush Family Will Understand
I do a lot of public speaking, primarily to business trade association groups. I frequently see the look of bewilderment on the faces of the “anybody but Obama” audience members when I state that President Barack Obama’s job approval is 48% and that at 50% he wins a second term.
The “anybody but Obama” audience members cannot conceive of how it could be remotely possible that Obama could have a near-50% job approval in light of his record in dealing with the nation’s economic crisis; the debt problem, the deficit spending, the unemployment.
That’s when I remind them that President George W. Bush’s job approval was 25% in October of 2008, as low as President Nixon’s job approval after Watergate in 1974 or as low as President Truman’s job approval after he fired Gen. Douglas MacArthur in 1951.
I can think of no political variable keeping President Obama within striking range of second term than the fear of a third Bush administration under Mitt Romney’s leadership.
On June 1, 2012, Peggy Noonan, President Reagan’s primary speech writer, wrote a commentary in The Wall Street Journal titled, The Long Race Has Begun. The last two paragraphs are startling in their depth of political wisdom, calling for Romney to face Republican mistakes:
Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too. Candor here, delivered in a spirit of honesty, without animus, would seem not like a repudiation but a refreshment. And this would be deeply undercutting of Mr. Obama, who needs this race to be a fight between two parties, not a fight between a past that didn’t work and a future that can.
The Bush family will understand. They respect politics, and its practitioners.
It would take away a key political advantage from President Obama
Today, July 2, 2012, Molly K. Hooper, writing for The Hill, says in her commentary titled, GOP lawmakers: Romney needs to distance himself from Bush, that if Romney distanced himself from the mistakes of the Bush administration, it “would take away a key political advantage from President Obama, who has repeatedly suggested Romney would embrace Bush-like policies in the White House.”
As Gallup polling has consistently shown, more voters still blame Bush for today’s economic problems than blame Obama. Taking a stand against the irresponsible fiscal policy of the Bush and Obama eras is politically safe with independent voters and the GOP-leaning Tea Partiers. The Tea Party swarmed into the national political arena because of their frustration with big spending conservative Republicans, not just big spending liberal Democrats!
On May 30, 2012, Jonah Goldberg, writing for the National Review Online, says in his commentary titled, Memo to Mitt: Run Against Bush, that Republicans during the Bush era helped create today’s economic problems and “they should concede the point.” Goldberg writes: “Romney is under no obligation to defend the Republican performance during the Bush years. Indeed, if he’s serious about fixing what’s wrong with Washington, he has an obligation not to defend it.”
Goldberg concludes, “Voters don’t want a president to rein in runaway Democratic spending; they want one to rein in runaway Washington spending.”
Romney’s two big political rewards for facing Republican mistakes
According to Gallup today, July 2, 2012, President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 43%, among registered voters in the latest Gallup Daily tracking seven-day average, which spans June 25-July 1.
There can be no explanation for why President Obama is consistently ahead of Romney in the presidential trial heat polls, and why his job approval is still at 48%, other than most Americans still see the Bush administration and congressional Republicans of the last decade as the instigators of the nation’s economic crisis.
There are two big political rewards waiting for Romney if he begins to place equal blame on Bush and Obama for the nation’s history of irresponsible spending. One is integrity. As Peggy Noonan wrote, Candor here, delivered in a spirit of honesty, without animus, would seem not like a repudiation but a refreshment.
The other reward is independent voters. They could care less about which party solves the problems of the day. They just want leadership with integrity who they can trust to stay focused on those problems and not sell out to their party.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13
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UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem
Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13 pm
Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Last Monday, May 14, 2012, I wrote that after decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles; that Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; and she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s.
On May 17, Public Policy Polling released the results of a new North Carolina survey showing Perdue’s disapproval rating the highest ever, with 57% of voters disapproving of the job she is doing to only 31% who approve.
Quoting PPP, a Democratic polling firm, “… that 57% disapproval is the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling.”
- Among Democrats, Perdue has 50% approval; 34% disapproval.
- Among Republicans, Perdue has a 7% approval; 87% disapproval.
- Among Independents, Perdue has a 27% approval; 64% disapproval.
It’s no wonder that many writers are beginning to report that national Democrats are having buyers’ remorse over the selection of North Carolina for their convention. A bit more vetting by the DNC and they would have seen that under Perdue’s leadership the state party has collapsed.
National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
On Friday, May 18, 2012, National Journal, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected non-partisan political research organizations, unveiled the first installment of their Hotline’s monthly gubernatorial rankings, listing the governorships most likely to flip partisan control this fall. North Carolina is #1 on the list of the top ten states likely to see a partisan change in the governor’s mansion. “We see North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s seat as more likely to wind up in Republican hands,” writes National Journal.
National Journal Forecasts McCrory Win: “It has been more than 20 years since a Republican won the governorship, but former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is looking like a heavy favorite against Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton,” concludes National Journal.
CNN: Obama’s North Carolina math problem
CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby wrote a story on Friday, May 18, 2012, titled Obama’s North Carolina math problem, in which he concluded that the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to math.
Hamby points out what I have concluded for years: “Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.”
Hamby quoted a “senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity” as saying that “white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.”
“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”
CNN news anchor Wolf Blitzer interviewed James Carville, President Clinton’s campaign manager, about the story, Obama’s North Carolina math problem. Carville agreed with Blitzer’s statement that the numbers do not look good.
With PPP stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
Take advantage of the July 4 Sale! A 20% discount on the Premium Annual Subscription … now only $196. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures. Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican
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NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm
Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican Leadership Emergence
Forecast: A historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives.
The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party during the past 10 years and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party argue for a new era of GOP dominance in the Old North State.
Strong leadership is essential for a winning political organization. Without strong leaders, party factions will turn on each other rather than stand united against the opposition.
After decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles:
- Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s; and she can’t stop the party Executive Committee from keeping the embattled state party chairman after she called for his resignation.
- Perdue’s predecessor, Gov. Easley, was so indifferent to the Democratic Party that he didn’t go to the state or national conventions … or speak to the NAACP state convention.
- Democrats have lost the decisive influence of Eastern NC because they do not have an Eastern NC candidate in the governor’s race like they’ve had for decades: Jim Hunt, D-Wilson; Mike Easley, D-Brunswick; Beverly Perdue, D-Craven.
- Eastern NC Christian social conservative Democrats, black and white, are disappointed with the party leadership’s stand against Amendment One (Obama, Perdue, Dalton).
- Eastern NC Democratic influence in the General Assembly collapsed with the end of the era of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, and with the resignation of Majority Leader Sen. Tony Rand, D-Cumberland. Contributing to the decline was the retirement of powerful insiders like Sen. R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, President of the Senate Caucus; Charlie Albertson, D-Duplin, Agriculture Committee Chairman; and with the loss of Appropriations Committee Co-Chair A.B. Swindell (D-Nash).
Furthermore, Democrats have been rocked by an era of scandal including former party leaders like Gov. Easley, Speaker Black, Agriculture Commissioner Phipps, U.S. Rep. Frank Balance, Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards, Sen. R.C. Soles, Rep. Thomas Wright, and numerous members of the staffs and campaign teams of governor’s Easley and Perdue.
North Carolina No Longer a Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
How could the Obama political organization misread North Carolina so badly?
- Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
The big mistake the Obama camp made was in thinking that Obama carried North Carolina because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Wrong. He was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
- Since 2010, Democrats have lost the majority party/majority district status in NC. And, they no longer have the leverage of political power to gain a fundraising advantage.
- Since 2010, Republicans have gained the leverage of power for a fundraising edge AND 30 Senate districts likely to elect a Republican to only 18 for the Democrats. Republicans only need 26 to keep their majority in the Senate. There are 70 GOP-friendly House districts to only 42 for the Democrats. Republicans need 61 to keep their majority.
- The Republican advantage in the 13 congressional districts has grown from 7 to 10.
The lack of strong Democratic leaders in North Carolina gives the Obama camp no other choice but to begin to discretely redirect the campaign’s North Carolina resources to greener pastures.
Republican Leaders Strengthen; GOP Base Solidifies Over Amendment One
Concurrent with the collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party has been the rise a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party. Those who led the successful battle in 2010, like Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger from Eden and Majority Leader Harry Brown from Jacksonville, along with Speaker Thom Tillis from Huntersville and Majority Leader Skip Stam from Apex on the House side, now wield the political power over the state budget.
Legislative leaders, along with party chairman Robin Hayes and an exceptionally talented team of political professionals, are the new best and brightest in North Carolina political circles.
In the past, disunity has kept Republicans in North Carolina from taking advantage of opportunities. The 61% to 39% rout on the Amendment One campaign was a galvanizing experience for state Republicans, leading to my analysis in The News & Observer May 9:
At a time of economic crisis it was politically risky for Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly to initiate a statewide constitutional vote on a social issue like the Marriage Amendment. However, thanks to their landslide victory on May 8, the state GOP will now enjoy a win-win of the highest order. They win the loyalty and enthusiastic support of their elated social and religious conservatives, and they neutralized the issue as fodder for Democrats in the General Election. By this fall, the Marriage Amendment controversy will be old news to just about everyone except those elated social and religions conservatives. Their victory will continue to motivate them all year to do the hard work of winning campaigns for conservatives.
Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity is what leads me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
When Trustworthiness is an Unreasonable Expectation for Leaders, the Skill Set for the Most Important Problems becomes the Standard “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.” Allegedly by Mitt Romney, Presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee Post: Tuesday, May 1, 2012 Vol. V, No. 15 3:13 pm I
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When Trustworthiness is an Unreasonable Expectation for Leaders, the Skill Set for the Most Important Problems becomes the Standard
“Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”
Allegedly by Mitt Romney, Presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee
Post: Tuesday, May 1, 2012 Vol. V, No. 15 3:13 pm
I heard that Mitt Romney ended his speech last weekend to a group of the GOP faithful by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.” That bit of humor reveals Romney’s biggest problem among fiscal conservatives: you can’t trust him to be the conservative he now claims to be; too much history of flip-flopping to the contrary.
During the last decade, the nation trusted Republicans with all of the power and they let us down. Under Republican President George W. Bush, and a Republican congress led by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) and U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Republicans spent money like crazed liberal Democrats and started The Great Recession that cost us 8.5 million jobs and brought our country to the brink of bankruptcy.
Who can be trusted? Is trustworthiness too much to expect in our political leaders?
In the fall of 2008, there was only one other option on the ballot: the Democrats. So, we put them in charge with great hope for change in Washington and a restoration of our country’s financial integrity. Well, that turned out to be the proverbial fox guarding the henhouse.
Now we are stuck: do we keep the big spending liberals in power who have not figured out how to get us back on our own two feet or do we put the big spending conservatives in power who knocked us off our feet in the first place?
Have we forgotten that during the administration of Republican President George W. Bush we went from a budget surplus to a national debt of $4.9 trillion? Have we forgotten that the banking crisis, subprime mortgages crisis, real estate crisis, Wall Street meltdown, bank bailouts, auto manufacturing crisis, and The Great Recession happened on the Republican watch?
So, how about trustworthiness? Who can I trust to do the right thing by the country?
Unfortunately, that’s like asking, who is more trustworthy to do the right thing: the Republicans in the U.S. House or the Democrats in the U.S. Senate? Got the picture? Trustworthiness is an unreasonable expectation for elected officials. Both have proven themselves untrustworthy.
Political Math: Obama’s Job Approval is High because Bush’s was so Low
Last week, Gallup’s job approval number for Barack Obama’s was 50%. Per Gallup, his average for April was 47%. President Bush had a job approval of 25% in the fall of 2008.
I am persuaded that the ONLY reason President Obama has sustained a near-50% job approval in the midst of high unemployment and a debilitating sovereign debt crisis is a fear of giving the country back to the Bush team.
The Bush team is the Albatross around Romney’s neck. That’s why Jeb Bush, arguably the most competent and level-headed Republican on the American political stage today, cannot be seriously considered as Vice President. Wrong last name. Who would want a third Bush term?
The only way that President George W. Bush had such a historic low 25% job approval is that Republican voters in 2008 agreed with Democrats and Independents that Bush and his team were responsible for the economic crisis and could no longer be trusted to manage the country.
Why would we put that group back in charge? When President Bush was sworn in on January 21, 2001, Gallup polling showed that only 22% of Americans thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic. When President Obama was sworn in on January 20, 2009, Gallup polling showed that the number of Americans who thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic and grown to 86%.
That’s why Romney must distance himself from all things Bush.
Republicans and Democrats have Different Priorities/Worries
So, what are the most important problems of the day? According to Gallup, the only replies with a 10%-or-greater group of voters to the question, “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? are:
- Economy in general 32%
- Unemployment/Jobs 25%
- Dissatisfaction with Government 12%
- Federal budget deficit/debt 11%
All other problems are single-digit numbers. Only 9% said health care was the most important problem; only 8% named Fuel/Oil Prices as the most important problem; 5% said Education; 2% said Taxes; 2% said Immigration/Illegal Aliens; 2% said War; 1% said National Security; 1% said Crime/Violence; 1% said Abortion.
So, which one of the two candidates likely to face off in this fall’s presidential contest has the skill set to take on the most important problems of the day?
It all comes down to the skills to deal with the most important problems of the day, and, with few exceptions, that comes down to your party affiliation. A March 28, 2012 study by Gallup shows a distinct difference in how Democrats and Republicans answered the “most important problem” question.
- 84% of Republicans said Federal Spending/Budget Deficit was an issue that worried them “a great deal.” Only 42% of Democrats agreed.
- 71% of Republicans said Size and Power of the Federal Government worried them “a great deal.” Only 31% of Democrats agreed.
- 46% of Republicans said Availability/Affordability of Health Care worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 69% of Democrats were worried about health care.
- 34% of Republicans said Hunger and homelessness worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 53% of Democrats were worried about the poor.
Look at where Democrats, Republicans … and Independents Agree
The political value of the Gallup study is not just in seeing where the parties disagree, it’s in seeing where they agree:
- Both parties are highly worried about the Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment
- Neither party is highly worried about Crime, Drugs, Environment, Terrorism, Race Issues
But perhaps the greatest political value of the Gallup study is in seeing where Independent voters come down on the issues that both parties see as important.
- Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Federal Spending/Budget Deficit issue (56%) as Republicans (84%), although more concerned than Democrats (42%).
- Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Size and Power of the Federal Government issue (40%) as Republicans (71%), although more concerned than Democrats (31%).
- Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment are important to all three groups.
- Independent voters are more worried about the Availability/Affordability of Health Care issue (61%) than Republicans (46 %), much closer to the Democrats (69%).
Bottom line, since voters do not trust either party anymore, the 2012 winners will be those who make the best case that they have the skill set to deal with the issues relating to the Economy, Unemployment and Gas Prices. And, the winners of the all-important Independent vote will be those who can add Availability/Affordability of Healthcare to their list of core competencies.
It strikes me that as of today, May 1, 2012, presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney has the perfect skill set for the problems of the day provided he’s willing to flip-flop one more time and take credit for being the architect of Obamacare, to lock in the Independent vote, and provided he joins the American majority in its fear and loathing of a third Bush term by distancing himself from anyone associated with the Bush administration.
That should not be a stretch for a pathological flip-flopper who allegedly ended his speech last weekend by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 3071
4, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina is Romney’s to Lose; Obama Abandoned by his Army of Enthusiastic Young Volunteers Discouraged by Unemployment “The central question is likely to be whether Obama can turn out as many young people in this college-heavy state as he did in 2008. With massive 18-29 turnout, North Carolina looks doable for Obama. Without it,
[More…]
North Carolina is Romney’s to Lose; Obama Abandoned by his Army of Enthusiastic Young Volunteers Discouraged by Unemployment
“The central question is likely to be whether Obama can turn out as many young people in this college-heavy state as he did in 2008. With massive 18-29 turnout, North Carolina looks doable for Obama. Without it, probably not.”
The Washington Post, The Fix, Chris Cillizza, April 16, 2012
Post: Thursday, April 19, 2012 Vol. V, No. 14 1:13 pm
President Obama cannot win a second term without the army of enthusiastic young campaign volunteers responsible for his first victory, and thus far they are nowhere to be found. They have not abandoned the cause, they have abandoned the leader of the cause.
On April 16, 2012, Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, editor of the politics blog The Fix, argued in a story The 9 swing states of 2012, that if Obama does not get a large turnout of young voters in North Carolina, he is not likely to carry the state in 2012.
Well, Obama is not likely to carry the state. The facts tell the whole story:
- Obama carried North Carolina by only 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008
- New registered voters in the 18-to-24-year-old age group in 2008 totaled 317,584
- CNN exit polls show 17% of all North Carolina voters in 2008 were 18-to-29-year-olds
- Barack Obama won 72% of the 18-to-29-year-old-voters to John McCain 28%
Bottom line: Without the young voters in North Carolina doing the hard work of registering and turning out voters in record numbers in 2008 … especially during the early voting periods of the May Primary and the November General Election … Obama never would have won.
Obama Defeated Clinton and McCain in North Carolina with Young Volunteers
On May 6, 2008, Primary Election Day exit polling here in North Carolina was so conclusive that the moment the polls closed the national networks declared Barack Obama the winner over Hillary Clinton.
David Plouffe, President Obama’s campaign manager, revealed the campaign secrets in his book The Audacity to Win. Plouffe recalls the 14-point blowout in North Carolina this way: “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites thanks to our stand against the gas tax, we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”[1]
The unconventional strategy of targeting atypical voters in unlikely places like North Carolina continued throughout the fall. Obama knew he could not defeat a Republican presidential nominee in the Old North State with TV ads, no matter how much money he spent. His only hope was a massive ground game, registering and turning out non-traditional voters.
The Obama campaign had 47 headquarters in our state in 2008, with 400 paid staff in the twenty-something age group managing the army of thousands of enthusiastic young volunteers.
When the dust settled and the numbers were tallied in North Carolina following the November elections, 967,804 new voters had been registered during the year, with nearly 8 in 10 registering either as a Democrat or Unaffiliated, pushing our state to over 6 million registered voters for the first time ever.
New African-American voters totaled over 304,708; new voters in the 18-to-24-year-old age group totaled 317,584 … early voters in the fall of 2008 totaled 2.6 million of the 4.3 million votes cast (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more than voted on Election Day.
Obama Has No Coattails
In the fall of 2009, only one year after millions of young voters throughout America carried Barack Obama to victory, we discovered that Obama had no coattails. Young voters did not turn out for the Democrats in the two governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.
Despite numerous pleas from the president during personal visits, only 8% of the 18-to-24-year-old voters turned out in New Jersey in the race that Republican Gov. Chris Christie won (17% in 2008), and only 10% of the 18-to-24-year-old voters turned out in Virginia in the race Republican Gov. Bob McDonald won (21% in 2008).
In a revealing story in Data-Net, July 2011, titled Young Adult Voting: 2010 falls short of 2008 by Eliza Kern, managing editor of reesenews, the “student powered” digital news publication at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, it was reported that in the 2010 midterm elections in North Carolina, 18-to-25-year-olds “made up only 5% of the population who voted.” Kern points out that the turnout rate of young voters in 2010 was only 17%, “… as compared to a 60% turnout rate for citizens older than 66.”
Noting that young Republicans turned out at a significantly higher rate than Young Democrats in 2010 (24% compared to 17% for young Democrats), Kern writes, “… it does raise questions as to the depth of young Democrats’ commitments to their party and their president that was so widely touted after the 2008 election. This question of their commitment will remain highly relevant in the upcoming 2012 reelection campaign.”
Republicans will not take North Carolina for Granted in 2012
No one thought Obama could win North Carolina in 2008, so Republicans took this state for granted. McCain/Palin didn’t campaign here until the very end, and then it was too late.
The brilliance of the Obama campaign in North Carolina in 2008 cannot be overstated. They operated under the radar with a ground game only, thereby not alarming the opposition with a high profile TV ad campaign.
Obama has little chance of carrying North Carolina in 2012 in part because he has lost the surprise factor. But the main reason Obama has virtually no chance of carrying North Carolina in 2012 is that he does not have the army of enthusiastic young volunteers to do the hard work of registering and turning out voters.
Youth employment in America is at a 60-year low. Over 18% of Americans aged 18 to 24 are unemployed. According to an April 19, 2012 NPR story, Educated And Jobless: What’s Next For Millennials”, “Only 55 percent of people ages 16 to 29 have a job — the lowest percentage since World War II. A quarter of people between ages 25 and 34 are living with their parents, and new numbers out this week say people under 35 are worth 68 percent less than they were 25 years ago.”
Obama may be able to raise enough money to rent the 47 headquarters he had in North Carolina in 2008, and he may be able to pay for 400 workers again to staff them, but he can’t buy the army of enthusiastic young campaign volunteers responsible for his victory.
Young voters have not abandoned the cause of hope and change, they have abandoned the leader of the cause. Without them, he cannot carry North Carolina in 2012; without them he cannot win a second term as president of the United States of America.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
[1] The Audacity to Win, page 229.
[2] Union contributions and independent expenditures database provided by Civitas Institute
[3] http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/indexp.php
[4] The Wall Street Journal, SEIU Campaign Spending Pays Political Dividends, May 16, 2009
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or complete the subscription form here and mail to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. I moderated a panel Wednesday for the Independent Insurance Agents of NC featuring David Parker, Chair of the NC Democratic Party, and Robin Hayes, Chair, NC Republican Party. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. jnd
Super PACs a Super PROBLEM for NC Politicians: 1,000 high-dollar contributors wiped out by 1 Super PAC contributor The Hypocrisy of Congressman David Price’s Moral Outrage Post: Friday, February 24, 2012 Vol. V, No. 7 11:13 am Joe Democrat and Joe Republican Get $1 Million Imagine 1,000 high-dollar contributors writing a check for $1000 each
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Super PACs a Super PROBLEM for NC Politicians: 1,000 high-dollar contributors wiped out by 1 Super PAC contributor
The Hypocrisy of Congressman David Price’s Moral Outrage
Post: Friday, February 24, 2012 Vol. V, No. 7 11:13 am
Joe Democrat and Joe Republican Get $1 Million
Imagine 1,000 high-dollar contributors writing a check for $1000 each and giving them to Joe Democrat, all breathing a collective sigh of relief knowing that once again they have secured their power in North Carolina with a million-dollar financial advantage. Now, imagine 1 contributor writing a check for $1,000,000 and giving it to Joe Republican’s Super PAC. That’s the new political reality of funding campaigns in North Carolina.
Allowing Super PACs to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money independently may be a bad rule for our Democracy, but in 2012 it is the rule. Ignoring Super PACs is unilateral disarmament. President Obama came to that conclusion last week. He came to a similar conclusion four years ago when he changed his mind about limiting his campaign spending to public funding.
Obama’s decision to abandon public funding in 2008 allowed him to spend $760 million to John McCain’s $358 million. It’s why he won. He is not giving away that advantage.
David Price’s Moral Outrage Rings Hollow
North Carolina Congressman David Price, D-Orange wrote an opinion piece in this week’s US News and World Report, Super PACs Strike at the Heart of Democracy, in which he says that Super PACs are “a culmination of a decades-long campaign by conservative groups and corporate interests” to gain undue influence in politics.
Where was David Price’s moral outrage over the century-long undue influence by liberal groups and corporate interests when it was being used by Democrats to keep their majorities in the legislature, on the courts and in the executive branch here in North Carolina?
Where was David Price’s moral outrage over undue influence of outside money in North Carolina politics when $5,032,908 was being spent by unions in 2008 on North Carolina candidates, $4,532,540 of which was spent by public employee unions and their affiliated unions? Here are the facts:[1]
- SEANC is Local #2008, affiliated with SEIU (Service Employees Int’l Union)
- SEIU invested $1,810,566 in NC candidates in 2008
- Democrats enjoyed $1,760,556 of SEIU’s money, or 97%; Republicans 3%
- SEIU gave the North Carolina Democratic Party over $1 million
- SEANC (State Employees Assn. of NC) contributed $243,706 to NC candidates
- Democratic candidates received $218,956 of SEANC money, or 90%
- Republican candidates received $24,750 of SEANC money, or 10%
- NCAE (NC Association of Educators) contributed $265,330 to 200 NC candidates
- Democratic candidates received $245,980 of NCAE money, or 93%
- NEA (National Education Association) invested $2,212,936 in NC candidates
- 100% of NEA’s $2,212,936 went to help Democrats; Republicans 0%
- NEA ran a $1.7 million independent expenditure campaign for Bev Perdue
Where was David Price’s moral outrage over the undue influence of money in politics when North Carolina Democrats received 97% of the outside public employee union money and 100% of the National Education Association’s $2.2 million in 2008?
- United Auto Workers union gave the North Carolina Democratic Party over $100,000
- DRIVE, the Teamsters union, contributed $361,617 to NC Democrats
- IBEW (International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers) gave $36,500 to Democrats
- UFCE (United Food and Commercial Workers) contributed over $100,000 to the Democratic Party of North Carolina
If Congressman David Price would go to the website, www.opensecrets.org, and do a search on the largest political independent expenditure groups, he would discover that SEIU was #1 on the list of the Top 100 all-time biggest spenders in 2008.[2] In 2008, SEIU spent $85 million to influence the outcome of elections, and was rewarded by President Obama with support for the Employee Free Choice Act legislation and top White House jobs including political director, and positions on the NLRB and the president’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.[3]
In 2006, SEIU spent $635,000 in North Carolina elections on TV and radio ads, mailings, opinion polls, and Get-Out-The-Vote phone banks – more than ANY BUSINESS PAC in NC. In 2004, SEIU spent $650,000 just on NC legislative races.
SEIU also contributed more than 10% of the total budget of FairJudges.net to run ads statewide for NC Supreme Court candidates in 2006; 3 of 4 were Democrats. FairJudges.net was one of the most unfair stunts pulled by Democrats in modern history. Step 1: Create public funding laws for Supreme Court candidates. Step 2: After the candidates have accepted public funding spending limits, create an independent expenditure committee that allows five times the number of ads to be run on behalf of your candidates. Where was Congressman David Price’s moral outrage then?
NEA and the NCAE invested $1,846,219 to help Beverly Perdue win the governor’s race in 2008. Where was Congressman David Price’s moral outrage then?
In addition to decrying the outside special interest liberal groups’ undue influence over the politics of this state, those “corporate interests” that he is linking to conservative groups have always given a disproportionate share of their money to Democrats, who along with other liberal groups, have helped Democrats defeat Republicans for decades.
During my 25 years of tracking campaign money in North Carolina, I can safely say that if it had not been for “corporate interests,” Republicans would have had a majority in the General Assembly well before 2010, and would have had at least half of the 10-member Council of State.
Finally, Price writes that “outside groups shouldn’t be able to spend unlimited amounts of money to hijack the marketplace of ideas and drown out other voices, including those of candidates themselves.” No group can surpass the Democrats in North Carolina when it comes to hijacking the marketplace of ideas and drowning out other voices to gain undue influence.
Price concludes by writing that the “first steps in restoring integrity in our democracy” are a different balance on the U.S. Supreme Court and/or a constitutional amendment.
If Congressman David Price wants to restore integrity in our democracy he needs to begin by looking in the mirror.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
[1] Union contributions and independent expenditures database provided by Civitas Institute
[2] http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/indexp.php
[3] The Wall Street Journal, SEIU Campaign Spending Pays Political Dividends, May 16, 2009
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or complete the subscription form here and mail to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. I moderated a panel Wednesday for the Independent Insurance Agents of NC featuring David Parker, Chair of the NC Democratic Party, and Robin Hayes, Chair, NC Republican Party. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. jnd
Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012 “So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in
[More…]
Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance
Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012
“So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in a lot of money from across the country to quickly make this a race.” Public Policy Polling, January 30, 2012, More on the NC governor’s race
Bowles Was the Biggest Threat to McCrory; Lt. Gov. Dalton Trails by 15 Points
I can hear the champagne corks popping all over the state as backers of former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s campaign for the GOP nomination for governor celebrate today’s decision by Erskine Bowles not to seek the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination. According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, Bowles was the only serious Democratic candidate who polled within 10 points of McCrory, trailing McCrory only 44-42.
Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton of Rutherford County, state Rep. Bill Faison of Orange County and former Congressman Bob Etheridge of Harnett County have announced their intentions to run for governor in the Democratic primary. The Public Policy Poll shows Dalton and Etheridge trailing McCrory by 15 points (50-35); Faison by 19 points (50-31). Former state Treasurer Richard Moore, still considering the race, trails McCrory by 11 points (47-36).
McCrory, the presumptive Republican Party nominee in the race for governor, made his formal announcement in Greensboro Tuesday, January 31, 2012, vowing to put an end to the Democrats’ “scandal-ridden good old boy (and girl) network and fix the state’s broken economy.”
Erskine Bowles was more than a serious threat to McCrory’s quest to be governor, his candidacy would have reinvigorated the North Carolina Democratic Party by attracting much needed national money and talent. Now, the steep political decline continues for Democrats as NC Republicans ascend to dominance.
Bowles Would Have Reinvigorated a Democratic Party in Disarray
The North Carolina Democrats have been in political disarray since losing the state Senate and House to Republicans in 2010 … a first in 140 years.
Compounding the loss of political dominance by Democrats is the fact that Gov. Perdue has proven to be a weak governor and a drag on their candidates. Further, Perdue has been tripped up time and again by allegations of campaign improprieties and the investigations and indictments of key staff and supporters.
“Bev Perdue’s retirement has clearly helped Democratic chances of holding the Governor’s office this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
There is no greater evidence of how the political fortunes of North Carolina Democrats have diminished than the campaign finance report filed this week by Sen. Martin Nesbitt, Senate Minority Leader, the most powerful Democrat in the Senate. Nesbitt’s January 2012 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he raised only $52,264 as of year-end 2011. At the same time two years ago, January 2010, then Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight reported raising $1,519,768.
Mid-year 2011 campaign finance reports showed Republicans in the NC Senate with a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over the loyal opposition party, a historic first, with NC House Republicans raising four times the money of their Democratic counterparts.
Republicans have Power, Money and Friendly Districts
Power has always meant money; money means you have the resources to hold on to your base of candidates, win most of the close races in “swing” districts, and even raid the opposition’s base and pick off a few of their seats. Republicans have the power, the money … and the districts.
Last November, the United States Justice Department preapproved the Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps, virtually assuring Republicans a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly throughout the decade. Two weeks ago, a 3-judge panel ruled against several plaintiffs, including the NAACP, who were trying to delay the May 8 primary elections based on allegation that the maps would re-segregate the state and diminish the influence of black voters.
These two rulings add to the list of legislative and judicial redistricting wins for the North Carolina GOP and suggest that the maps will withstand any future litigation.
Further evidence of a downward spiral for North Carolina Democrats came today as the leading Democrat in the NC House, Minority Leader Joe Hackney, announce that he would not seek reelection. Hackney, who served as Speaker of the House two terms, brings the total number of Democrats not seeking reelection in the NC House to 9, with more to come due to incumbent Democrats double-bunked into the same district.
McCrory has High Favorability Ratings & $2 Million in the Bank
According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, not only was the hypothetical race between Bowles and McCrory a virtual tie, 46% of North Carolina voters said that they are “generally leaning toward voting for a Democrat in the race for governor, with 45% saying they will vote Republican in the governor’s race.”
However, with Bowles out and no other Democrat within striking distance of McCrory, the presumptive GOP nominee’s political fortunes will soar … especially his fundraising.
Favorable findings for McCrory in the Public Policy Polling survey last weekend include:
- McCrory has high name recognition (76%) at the starting gate, with many more voters having a favorable opinion (45%); only 31% an unfavorable opinion
- In a state where 24% of all registered voters are Unaffiliated, Independent voters see McCrory positively by a 55%/25% spread
The year-end 2011 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that McCrory raised $2.6 million from 6,120 contributors last year, and has a little over $2 million cash on hand.
Bowles would have had no problem playing catch-up with fundraising. In both his 2002 and 2004 losing races for U.S. Senate seats won by Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, he spent $12.7 million and $13.4 million respectively, with $6.8 million coming out of his own pocket in 2002.
Now, Democrats will struggle all year to raise a competitive war chest in the Governor’s race. They simply do not have a superstar like Bowles to re-energize their financial base.
Without a SuperSTAR like Bowles, the Best Hope for Democrats is a SuperPAC
There was a news story last week about SAS co-founder and CEO Jim Goodnight hosting a fundraiser for Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton. Goodnight is generally recognized as the wealthiest man in the State of North Carolina and one of the wealthiest in the world.
Goodnight has a passion for education, especially elementary and secondary. The Public Policy Poll from last weekend notes a potential liability for McCrory, “his close ties to the unpopular Republican legislature and the cuts they’ve made to education.”
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling two years ago in the Citizen’s United case declared that wealthy individuals like Goodnight and corporations like SAS can spend an unlimited amount of money influencing the outcome of political races … provided they spend it independently and not in collusion with the campaigns they are attempting to help.
With the steep decline in the prowess of the North Carolina Democratic Party, and the rapid ascendancy of the Republican Party as the dominant political party, there are only two recovery options for the Democrats: an exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle or a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
I do not see the exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle on the list of statewide Democratic candidates. Disagree? Well, who would you say is the Jim Hunt of 2012? That leaves recovery option #2: a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
That’s where the Jim Goodnights of the state meet with the Citizen’s United decision; unlimited funding for everything the party lacks resources to do better than the Republicans … from voter registration and early voting turnout to unlimited millions in advertising dollars targeting every vulnerable Republican in the state.
You can already count on outside money pouring into the state with the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Charlotte and the fact that President Obama likes North Carolina. And, you can count on outside union money pouring in from the coffers of the NEA (teachers), AFSCME (government employees) and SEIU (service employees). But all of that money will pale in significance to the money now allowed under the Citizens United decision.
In the absence of a superstar like Erskine Bowles, the best hope for North Carolina Democrats is a SuperPAC. The traditional 10-to-1 advantage in total legislative campaign funds raised by the majority party is now chump change compared to the potential for a tsunami of outside SuperPAC funding.
There is a new political paradigm in North Carolina politics: the SuperPAC. If the GOP is to continue its ascendancy to political dominance, they must also embrace this new political reality in campaign funding.
Candidate filing begins on February 15, and ends on February 29. The primary is May 8.
Transcript of statement by Erskine Bowles released to AP this morning:
“I will not be a candidate for Governor. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to think what is the right thing for me to do. I don’t think anyone questions my love for North Carolina or my efforts to make our State a better place to live, work , or raise a family . I’ve done my best in this regard and I plan to continue to do so . There are lots of ways to make a difference , lots of ways to add to the community woodpile . I’m excited about helping our State’s and Nation’s leaders move North Carolina and our Country forward . We’ve got big challenges and great opportunities. I’m confident if we can get folks to put politics aside , and pull together , not apart , there are no problems we can’t solve working together. Erskine Bowles”
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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