LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012 Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3 NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3
NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. Today is Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, including U.S. President, Congress, NC Governor and Legislature.
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
FORECAST – AGAINST THE CURRENT GOP FIELD, OBAMA WILL WIN A SECOND TERM – WITHOUT THE HELP OF NORTH CAROLINA:
If you go to the Real Clear Politics website, you can see a list of all polls conducted during the month of August. There were 20 polls that pitted Obama against either a generic GOP contender or one of the announced candidates for the Republican nomination.
Obama’s average in the 20 match-ups was 44.8% to 42.6% for the Republican. If he is holding his own despite his lousy job approval numbers and the continued dire economic circumstances facing the nation, then he is well on his way for reelection. (By the way, I did not include the 3 match-ups between Obama and Palin; he trounced her by 20+ points.)
Today, Labor Day, Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
It’s Jobs, Spending, Global Economic Correction … and a Leadership Crisis
Americans want so desperately to see encouraging signs of economic recovery that any positive news sustained over several months will have an exponentially positive impact on President Obama’s reelection potential.
The potential for sustained economic improvement grows daily as all political leaders realize that their days are numbered because voters are in a foul mood and want results now.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the jobs crisis.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the economic crisis caused by unsustainable federal budgeting.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the crisis caused by the global economic correction.
Voters have determined that America has a political leadership crisis equal in magnitude as the country’s economic crisis. All incumbents are vulnerable, especially members of Congress.
Remember, today’s Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
Voters are much more likely to vent their frustration at Congress than the President.
FORECAST – MITT ROMNEY WILL BE THE GOP NOMINEE:
After the dust settles at the Republican National Convention in 2012, there is a greater likelihood that Romney will be the nominee, with a Tea Party running mate to galvanize the social and economic right.
Republicans are hierarchical, and Romney has earned the right to assume the mantle.
The current front runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, will self-destruct trying to defend his loose-cannon comments like those in his new book, “Fed Up!” Example: Social Security is a “violent” attack on core American values.
The book is an opposition research professional’s mother lode. “I wouldn’t have written that book if I was going to run for the presidency of the United States,” Perry said in an interview.
Perry, although a former Democrat who served as Al Gore’s state campaign chairman during the 1988 Presidential primaries, is a bona fide fiscal conservative who switched to the GOP in 1989.
However, Perry must overcome these two major obstacles:
- His trigger happy mouth has produced enough attack campaign fodder to fill the Astrodome.
- His Texas swagger and bravado are too reminiscent of George W. Bush, the President who voters blame more for the nation’s economic woes than the current President. There is no way the voters are going to vote for a third term for George W. Bush.
According to a September 1, 2011 Public Policy Polling release, “GOP voters like Perry better than Romney. But independents are a lot more willing to vote for Romney than Perry.”
Ultimately, Perry will scare off Independents.
The only other Republican who could defeat Romney (and Obama for that matter) says he’s not interested: NJ Gov. Chris Christie. Keep an eye on Christie. If he gets in, everything changes.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL OUTRIGHT LOSE/AT LEAST NEARLY LOSE THE US HOUSE:
The US House GOP leaders have wiped out the respect most American votes had for their potential to offer strong, problem-solving leadership. When US House Speaker Boehner caved in to Rep. Eric Cantor, R-VA and the other caucus Tea Partiers over the debt ceiling debate, his stock plummeted … along with the entire caucus.
Uncompromising ideologues in the US House GOP Caucus will continue to divide and conqueror the caucus, giving moderate Democrats (I repeat for emphasis, “moderate Democrats”) an opportunity to win the toss-up races and get within range of a small majority.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN US SENATE MAJORITY:
The US Senate Republicans are likely to win the majority because of the way the deck is stacked in 2012. Of the 33 US Senate races up for grabs, 23 are currently held be Democrats. The Senate is currently a 51/47 Democratic majority, with 2 Independents who regularly caucus with the Democrats. That slim majority is too close to hold while defending 23 seats held by Democrats.
Retiring senators include 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans. If you add the 6 seats open due to retiring Democrats to the 17 additional incumbent Democrats up for reelection, you can see the big problem that Democrats face.
Only 8 Republicans are up for reelection in 2012.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN NC HOUSE & SENATE:
North Carolina House and Senate Republicans are on track for a long period of sustained majority party status.
If the state Senate and House maps pass judicial scrutiny, then in a good Republican year they will win veto-proof super majorities in both chambers. In a bad Republican year they will maintain the majority.
If you add the maps to the money advantage, you can readily see the long-term prospects for GOP majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.
The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation put out an excellent study this week showing that Republican Senators had outraised the Senate Democrats 10-to-1 in the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections. The NC House Republicans have out-raised their loyal opponents by a 3-to-1 margin.
FORECAST – REPUBLICAN PAT McCRORY WILL WIN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE:
Governor Perdue has had a dismal couple of years struggling to establish her effectiveness as the leader of the 10th largest state in America. Judging by her chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … and the five veto overrides … she has yet to convince anyone beyond her base that she deserves a second term.
In 2008, Perdue won the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory only because of the historic voter registration and turnout of Democrats by the Obama 2012 Campaign for President. However, Obama is not likely to invest in a long-shot like North Carolina due to the loss of the surprise advantage (no one took his potential in NC seriously in 2008), and financial restraints.
Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory’s can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
- In an August 17 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 37% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 48% disapproved.
- PPP August 17 poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP August 17 poll: “The Governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats, a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed in July with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reported raising just over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
Even if the economy begins to recover, and Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race.
Well, there you have it. The John Davis Political Report Labor Day Forecasts.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 2: Question that Reelected Obama Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 2 “I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 2: Question that Reelected Obama
Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 2
“I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal?”
Bret Baier, Fox News Anchor, Moderator, GOP Presidential Debate, Ames, Iowa, Aug. 11, 2011
This is a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that begins today with Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and, later this afternoon, Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. On Monday, look for Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012.
Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama
The John Davis Political Report stated on August 12, 2011, “Obama’s probability of winning a second term remains high thanks to the low level of support among Americans for Congressional Republicans, especially the Tea Party fiscal conservatives.”
A review of two dozen national polls conducted in August 2011 support that point.
The AP-GfK poll conducted August 18-22, 2011, is a goldmine of insight on the eve of the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the election cycle.
As I noted in my report on Tuesday, one of the best facts to use to understand why President Obama is still in the running for a second term is the AP-GfK finding that “More Americans still blame former President George W. Bush rather than Obama for the economic distress. Some 31 percent put the bulk of the blame on Obama, while 51 percent point to his Republican predecessor.”
Here are a few more illustrations of the growing voter dissatisfaction with the Republican leadership:
- Last November 2010, AP-GfK poll asked voters, “Regardless of how you might vote, do you think Pres. Barack Obama deserves to be reelected.” Only 39% said yes; 54% said no. Two weeks ago, August 2011, those numbers have shifted favorably for Obama, with 47% saying he deserves to be reelected and 48% saying he does not (that’s a net negative 15 pts in November 2010 to only a 1 point negative in August 2011).
- Last October 2010, AP-GfK poll asked likely voters, “Who do you trust to do a better job of handling the economy, the Democrats are the Republicans?” Republicans received a plurality of 47%; Democrats were chosen by 44%. In August 2011, those numbers have now shifted, with 45% saying Democrats and 40% saying Republicans.
- How about “Handling Taxes?” In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 41%. August 2011 poll: Democrats 46%; Republicans 40%.
- How about “Creating Jobs?” In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 40%. August 2011 poll: Democrats 44%; Republicans 42%.
The same poll reveals a precipitous decline in support for the Tea Party, which has gone from 36% support among likely voters in October 2010 down to 25% support in August 2011.
Obama Just Won a Second Term
On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising far right fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, moderator of the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases deal.
BRET BAIER: Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?
BAIER: OK. Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands. They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to one deal, they would walk away from.”
When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”
Both parties won because they were the only option on the ballot
I understand how Republican and Tea Party fiscal conservatives can see Democrats as having an addiction to spending much like an alcoholic … out of control; can’t be trusted with one drink. I understand how they conclude that Democrats cannot be trusted with a 10-to-1 deal. But Independent voters can’t understand why GOP leaders balk at a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes.
It all goes back to misperceptions on election-day November 2010. Republicans thought those Independent voters switched from Democrats to Republicans because they wanted leaders who would say no to a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes. Wrong.
When Independent voters turned their backs on Democrats it was because they had lost confidence in the ability of Democrats to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.
Republicans were the only other opinion on the ballot!
Obama and the Democrats got into the same trouble after their victory in 2008 for the same reason … thinking that voters chose them because of the Democratic Party platform. Wrong.
When Independent voters turned their backs on President Bush and the Republicans in 2008, it was because they had lost confidence in the GOP’s ability to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.
Democrats were the only other option on the ballot!
Voters don’t want Democrats or Republicans … they could care less about liberal or conservative ideology … they want jobs, hope for regaining our economic footing here in the United States, and an end to outrageously irresponsible government spending.
As of Labor Day Holiday weekend 2011, uncompromising Republicans are Obama’s best hope for winning a second term.
Remember, on Monday I will send Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, in which I will forecast the next President, US House majority party, US Senate majority party, NC Senate and House majority parties, and the next NC Governor.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 1 “In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: ‘Jobs’ and
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 1
“In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: ‘Jobs’ and ‘Economy.’ It was a reminder to stay focused on the issues most important to the voters.“
Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
This is a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that begins today with Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and, later this afternoon, Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama.
Why the NC GOP Must Form a Political Coalition with Independents
Wednesday, I had the pleasure of serving as the guest commentator for the monthly Civitas poll luncheon here in Raleigh. Civitas’ August poll focused exclusively on Independent voters, a smart move in light of the fact that Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina now number 24% of the state’s 6,139,690 registered voters.
For emphasis: there are 1,482,315 (24%) Unaffiliated voters registered in North Carolina, compared to 1,934,499 Republicans (32%) and 2,711,322 Democrats (44%).
Although Republicans are enjoying unprecedented power in Raleigh and making the Democrats miserable in Washington DC, if they do not win the Independent vote their power will be short lived. There are simply not enough Republicans in North Carolina to ignore Independents.
Last month, in the July Civitas poll, 8 of 10 North Carolina voters said they split their ticket. Only 8% said they “Always vote Republican;” with 32% saying they “Vote Republican more often than Democrat.” As to the loyal opposition, 13% said they “Always vote Democrat,” with 25% saying they “Vote Democrat more than Republican.” Neither party can ignore Independents.
Although I am not permitted to share the specific August poll results due to Civitas’ upcoming release schedule, I am permitted to make the following general statements about the results:
- Independent NC voters blame both parties equally for the loss of the country’s AAA credit rating.
- Independent voters have a considerably less-than-favorable view of US House Speaker John Boehner, viewing him the same as US Senate Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid.
- President Obama’s favorable rating is considerably higher than both Congressional leaders.
Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
Civitas, one of the seasoned leaders in the statewide conservative movement, is wise to conduct a study that shows conservatives that they just may return the reins of political power back to the hands of liberal Democrats if they don’t form a political coalition with Independent voters.
If all you have is 1,934,499 Republican voters out of 6,139,690 total voters, you had better form a coalition with someone or you are going to be left out in the cold. A successful political coalition can be formed only if you take the time to find out what your potential allies want out of government and meet them halfway between what they want and what you want. That’s the added value of the Civitas poll of Independent voters … you find out what they want.
In 2008, President Obama won the keys to the Oval Office and Democrats seized control of the Congress because the Independent voters abandoned the Republican Bush Administration and Congressional Republicans.
In 2009, Republicans won the Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey because Independent voters soured on the Democrats … flipping from 2-to-1 Democratic leaning in 2008 to 60/40 Republican leaning in 2009.
In January 2010, Republicans won Sen. Teddy Kennedy’s US Senate seat in Massachusetts because Independents flipped from 2-to1 Democratic-friendly in 2008 to 2-to1 GOP-friendly.
In 2010, Republicans enjoyed unprecedented victories throughout the nation at all levels because Independent voters turned on the Democrats and voted for Republicans.
In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: “Jobs” and “Economy.” It was a reminder to stay focused on the issues most important to the voters.
The GOP wristband for the 2012 elections needs three words: “Jobs” “Economy” “Independents.” You can’t win without them.
Republicans in Congress have lost the respect of the American voters because they have allowed the most conservative among them to set the agenda during the debt ceiling debate, thereby running off moderate Republicans and Independents. The same thing could happen here.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-24-Perdue-IPD.mp3|titles=Aug 24 Perdue IPD] Gov. Perdue’s Probability of Winning 2nd Term in 2012: 45% Post: August 24, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 22 NEW Premium Monthly Subscription! Due to popular demand, a monthly rate for the $245 half-price Premium Annual Subscription to the John Davis Political Report is now available at $23 per month (cancel at
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-24-Perdue-IPD.mp3|titles=Aug 24 Perdue IPD]
Gov. Perdue’s Probability of Winning 2nd Term in 2012: 45%
Post: August 24, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 22
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“The governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats. a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.”
Tom Jenson, Public Policy Polling, August 17, 2011 Press Release “McCrory maintains 8-point lead over Perdue”This is the first look by the John Davis Political Report at Gov. Perdue’s probability of winning a second term as Governor of North Carolina in the 2012 elections. A dozen key political and economic variables have been used in the Investor’s Political Daily – Governors Race algorithm that suggests her probability of winning.
Bottom Line: If the election for governor were held today, Perdue’s probability of winning would be only about 45%. As you will see when you open the chart, it’s hard to find any good news for Governor Perdue at this point in her administration.
The Investors Political Daily – Governors Race Report, will be updated Wednesday through Election Day in November 2012.
Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Perdue’s Probability of Winning a 2nd Term.
Seven sources were used to compile the dozen political and economic indicators used in the algorithm. They include Gallup for the two national economic indicators, the North Carolina Employment Security Commission for the latest unemployment numbers, the North Carolina State Board of Elections for the fundraising numbers, Public Policy Polling and Civitas for the North Carolina poll numbers, Pollster.com for Obama’s job approval in North Carolina, and Investors Political Daily for Obama’s probability of winning in North Carolina.
Each of the 12 economic and political variables has their own weight in the algorithm with the highest weighted variable being “Fundraising.” Gov. Perdue barely defeated GOP nominee Pat McCrory in 2008 despite outspending him 2-to1 in one of the best turnout years for Democrats in modern political history. Midyear reports filed with the North Carolina State Board of Elections show Perdue raising $1.3 million, meager compared to the $1 million reported by McCrory.
In addition to “Fundraising,” the variables carrying the most weight in the algorithm include “North Carolina Unemployment,” “Perdue’s Job Approval,” “Perdue v/s McCrory Trial Heat,” “Obama’s probability of winning in North Carolina,” and the “leaning of Independent voters” in the governor’s race.
Again, this report will be updated each Wednesday for the remainder of the election cycle.
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-23-IPD-ZENO.mp3|titles=Aug 23 IPD ZENO] Afternoon Update Post: August 23, 2011 3 PM “I don’t need people like you lecturing me about morality.” Dr. Zeno Edwards, DDS, Washington, North Carolina September 30, 1926 – August 20, 2011 Quote from 1998 TV ad during race for NC House as a Democrat In Memory of Zeno Edwards: Best
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-23-IPD-ZENO.mp3|titles=Aug 23 IPD ZENO]
Afternoon Update Post: August 23, 2011 3 PM
Dr. Zeno Edwards, DDS, Washington, North Carolina September 30, 1926 – August 20, 2011 Quote from 1998 TV ad during race for NC House as a Democrat“I don’t need people like you lecturing me about morality.”
In Memory of Zeno Edwards: Best Counter-Attack Ad Ever!
Former state Representative Zeno Edwards, a Washington dentist who served four terms in the North Carolina House of Representatives (two as a Republican and two as a Democrat) died Saturday. He will be remembered, as Rep. Bill Owens, D-Pasquotank, so aptly described him in an AP story this weekend, as one who “always spoke his mind and stood his ground.”
In 1998, Edwards taught us this political lesson: never attack the character of a candidate with impeccable character if that candidate is one who always speaks their mind and stands their ground. His Republican opponent, Rep. Sandy Hardy, learned that lesson the hard way.
Character Attack Campaign Led by Character-Challenged Gingrich
In the fall of 1998, Republicans in NC and around the U.S. ran ads reminding voters of the affair between President Clinton and a 21-year-old White House intern Monica Lewinsky. They also tried to bring down Democrats running for the state legislature with TV ads tying them to Bill Clinton, suggesting that legislative Democrats approved of Clinton’s “poor conduct.”
The nationwide ill-conceived attack campaign was led by none other than the character-challenged Newt Gingrich, then Speaker of the U.S. House, who was engaging in an extramarital affair with a member of his staff while criticizing Clinton for his affair.
GOP political strategists assumed in 1998 that the American people could be duped into believing that Republicans had greater personal character qualities than Democrats. They forgot the time-honored lesson: Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones.
In fact, Speaker Gingrich was the most unpopular national political figure of the entire decade of the 1990s. The percent of American voters with a favorable impression of Newt Gingrich’s brand of leadership never broke the mid-forties during 1998. Meanwhile, Clinton’s favorable numbers soared to over 70 percent after the articles of impeachment were voted on by the U.S. House in December of 1998 … higher than Ronald Reagan’s ever were!
The Ad: “Politicians like you are a public nuisance.”
Rep. Zeno Edwards’ GOP opponent in 1998 was Rep. Sandy Hardy, a Pitt County attorney. Hardy was one of the Republicans who made the mistake of trying to bring down a North Carolina Democrat by tying them to Clinton in campaign ads.
Edwards ran the best counter-attack ad I have ever seen (for the times). It was set at his home in Washington. He was sitting on a couch with his wife Rosemarie.
Transcript: “My opponent claims that because I’m a Democrat that I approve of President Clinton’s poor conduct. That’s nonsense. Mr. Hardy, I’m 72 years old. I’ve been married to the same lady for 49 years. You are 37 years old, and you have never been married. I don’t need people like you lecturing me about morality. Politicians like you who talk about character and don’t know the meaning of the word are a public nuisance.”
After the dust settled in November 1998, Democrats had won an upset comeback victory by not losing what they had and by making surprise gains. For the first time since 1934, the party in the White House picked up Congressional seats during a mid-term election year.
Here in North Carolina, U.S. Senator Lauch Faircloth, R-Sampson County, lost to political novice John Edwards, D-Wake County, and the GOP lost the majority party advantage in the NC House to the Democrats … including Democrat Zeno Edwards.
Attack Politics 101: Never attack the character of a candidate with impeccable character if that candidate is one who always speaks their mind and stands their ground.
Click here to view the Zeno Edwards counter-attack ad.
Obama’s Reelect Potential – Investors Political Daily Update 49%
The Investors Political Daily model for tracking President Obama’s potential for reelection continues to show him in the running at 49%. See report with 12 political and economic indicators here.
President Obama’s “Job Approval” is at its lowest point since his swearing in according to Gallup, now at 38% approval; 54% disapproval. Gallup notes by way of comparison that in August before they were re-elected, Ronald Reagan had a 43% “Job Approval” and Bill Clinton had a 46% “Job Approval.”
The major variables keeping Obama in the running for a second term are the historic low “Job Approval” of Congress (13%), which includes congressional Republicans, and the unsettled GOP presidential field. Right now, far more people are supporting Obama than approve of the job he is doing.
Gallup has rated congressional “Job Approval” since 1974. The three-decade average approval is 34%. Although Obama’s “Job Approval” is a dismal 38%, his numbers are three times greater than those of the US Congress. Among Independent voters, only 9% approve of the job the US Congress is doing.
Obama’s probability in North Carolina remains at 44%. He is still in the running for a 2nd term but is not likely to carry North Carolina.
Perdue’s Reelect Potential – Coming in Tomorrow’s Investors Political Daily
Tomorrow’s Investors Political Daily will use 12 key economic and political variables to forecast Gov. Beverly Perdue’s likelihood of winning in 2012. Look for 3 PM release.
Last Night’s Keynote: NC Agribusiness Council’s 42nd Annual Meeting
I had the pleasure and honor to deliver the keynote address last night at the 42nd Annual Meeting of the NC Agribusiness Council. The title of my remarks was, Eight Plus Ten Equals Twelve: How the Political Lessons of 2008 Plus those of 2010 suggest the Likely Winners in 2012. If you are interested in a political speaker, click here to check on my availability.
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-18-IPD-Obama.mp3|titles=Aug 18 IPD Obama] Post: August 18, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 21 “You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.” Fmr. Wyoming Republican U.S. Senator Alan Simpson, Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission Investors Political Daily: Obama’s Probability of Carrying NC in 2012 is 44% This is the first
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Post: August 18, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 21
“You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”
Fmr. Wyoming Republican U.S. Senator Alan Simpson,
Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission
Investors Political Daily: Obama’s Probability of Carrying NC in 2012 is 44%
This is the first look at President Obama’s probability of carrying North Carolina next year using a dozen key political and economic variables.
Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of carrying NC.
If the election for president were held today, Obama would only receive about 44% support in North Carolina.
As you will see when you open the chart, although Obama’s numbers are lousy the Republicans are not much better.
- 56% of “independent voters” in NC disapprove of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 38% approve
- 38% of NC voters tend to favor Democrats; 40% tend to favor Republicans
- 39% of NC voters supported raising the debt limit with deep cuts (Obama’s position)
- Unlike the US as a whole, more North Carolinians support the Tea Party (42%) than oppose it (37%). Nationally, 51% of voters see Tea Party unfavorably; 31% favorably
Obama Lost Favor with Voters Immediately After Taking Office
Last June 10, 2010, I wrote a report titled, Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments. It was about why Obama’s “Job Approval” had plummeted to quickly. The list is still relevant:
POST JUNE 10, 2010
Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June
The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster. It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low. According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[i]
- He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
- He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
- He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
- He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
- He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
- He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
- He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
- He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
- He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
- He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[ii] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
- He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak
Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”
Obama’s potential for reelection is still within striking range, although more and more — in order to stay in the running — he has to rely on voter dissatisfaction with all parties and all elected officials … especially those in Washington D.C. associated with the nation’s debt and jobs crisis.
Our national financial position is so weak that it prompted Alan Simpson, fmr. Wyoming GOP U.S. Senator and Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission to retort, “You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”
Next week Investors Political Daily will look at Gov. Perdue’s probability of a 2012 win.
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[i] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx June 10, 2010
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Aug-11-IPD-Obama.mp3|titles=Aug 11 IPD Obama] Post: August 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 20 “I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.” President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011 Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics. Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while touring a battery
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Post: August 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 20
“I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one.”
President Barack Obama, Johnson Controls, Holland, Michigan, 8/11/2011
Nothing wrong with our country. Something wrong with our politics.
Yesterday, in Holland, Michigan, while touring a battery facility, President Obama announced that he would release new proposals for job creation “week by week” to stimulate hiring. “I’m going to keep at it until every single American who wants a job can find one,” Obama said.
Obama also seized the bully pulpit yesterday to chide political leaders for partisan gridlock. “There is nothing wrong with our country. There is something wrong with the politics,” he said.
Whether Americans will be encouraged by Obama’s “job for every American” pledge, most Americans probably agree with his statement, “There is something wrong with the politics.”
In the aftermath of the debt debate, the President and the Congress are seeing their lowest approval ratings. However, August polling shows that the Tea Party and Republicans in Congress are hurting the GOP’s chances at defeating Obama in his race for a second term.
- Pres. Obama’s job approval is an anemic 43.3%, with 50.4% disapproving (a new low)
- Congressional job approval is only 16.8%, with 77% disapproving (a new low)
- A record 20-year low 21% say most in Congress deserve re-election (a new low)
- Overall support for the Tea Party has dipped to 25% (a new low)
- Despite Obama’s low numbers, 41% approve of his jobs policy when compared to the 26% who approve of the jobs policy of the Republicans in Congress.
Investors Political Daily Shows Obama’s Probability of 2012 Win is 48%
Last August, the John Davis Political Report unveiled a new feature Investors Political Daily. A dozen key political and economic trends 
were tracked daily to give readers a sense of how the elections were likely to unfold.
Thanks to tracking by Investors Political Daily, the John Davis Political Report projected the winner in 47 of 47 North Carolina Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 North Carolina House races (five races were toss ups).
No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately.
The Investors Political Daily this election cycle features 12 key economic and political variables. They will be update daily where practical (Obama Job Approval) or as soon as the updates are available (Unemployment).
Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of Win in 2012:
- Economic conditions in US … excellent, good, fair, poor
- Obama job approval
- Presidential generic ballot
- National party favorability ratings
- Job creation index
- Generic Congressional ballot
- Independent voters
- Jobs policy approval
- Consumer spending
- National party ID
- Tea Party opinion
- Unemployment
Next Week’s Investors Political Daily:
- Obama’s Probability of Winning NC in 2012
- Perdue’s Probability of Winning NC Governor’s Race
– END –
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/004_D_001_John-Davis_110728_006_2011_07_28.mp3|titles=004_D_001_John Davis_110728_006_2011_07_28] Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18 “What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then
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Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18
“What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life.”
Imaginary musings of Gov. Perdue as envisioned by Democrat consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, March 3, 2011
This Week’s Veto Overrides Signal the Inevitable Decision for Governor Perdue
With all due respect, if Governor Beverly Perdue cannot stop the veto overrides of the budget and some the most significant pieces of reform legislation in decades … including Regulatory Reform, Medical Malpractice Reform, Medicaid/Health Choice Provider Requirement, and today’s Abortion reform … then she needs to seriously reconsider a run for a second term.
Gary Pearce, one of North Carolina’s most successful Democratic campaign consultants and author of the biography of Jim Hunt, ruminated in his blog in March that Perdue just may be looking at her situation and thinking that if she didn’t run she could do as she pleased, veto any bill she didn’t like, and go out on her own terms. “Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life,” surmised Pearce. He ended his blog with, “That’s not a bad life choice.”
I submit that after a dismal year of ineffective leadership, as judged by chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … as judged by one major legislative failure after another … retiring after this term is her only choice. She is a lame duck.
Should Perdue Run? Numbers Say “No” Despite Record of 10 Wins and “1 Loss”
Governor Beverly Perdue, a Craven County Democrat, is one of the most successful campaigners in North Carolina history. She has won every race “except one,” including two terms in the N.C. House, five terms in the N.C. Senate, two statewide bids for Lt. Governor, and her 2008 race against Treasurer Richard Moore for the Democratic Party nominee for governor.
In 2008, Perdue failed to win the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory, but was handed the keys to the mansion anyway thanks to historic voter registration and turnout by the Obama campaign for President. Dumb luck. No President Obama; no Governor Perdue.
- Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America. Dumb luck.
- In a mid-July 2011 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 34% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 49% disapproved.
- PPP poll: “Independents disapproved by a wide margin.” Only 31% of NC’s Independent voters approve of Perdue’s performance as governor; 57% disapprove.
- PPP poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP poll: “McCrory’s advantage is built on a massive lead among Independents,” (57% to only 28% for Perdue).
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed this week with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reporting raising a little over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
A strong incumbent Governor seeking a second term would have raised considerably more than $1.3 million by now … and certainly should have raised a lot more than the challenger.
Forecast: Obama Wins White House in 2012 Without NC; Perdue Loses.
It’s very important to remember that Obama won North Carolina by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million. North Carolina was Obama’s closest win despite a weak Republican opponent and a year-long commitment of millions of dollars to a ground game second to none in state history … as measured by new registrations of African Americans, young voters and a record voter turnout.
The Obama campaign opened 47 headquarters in North Carolina and hired over 400 paid staff. These young professionals were responsible for a record early voting total of 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more voters than on Election Day. Seven out of 10 of the early voters were either Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%). African Americans comprised 28% of early voters, as compared to only 19% in 2004.
Yet despite Obama’s investment yielding hundreds of thousands of new registered Democrats and millions of early voters in 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory by only 145,021 votes out of 4.27 million. It was just dumb luck.
Even if the economy begins to recover, Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina. If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race; especially as a lame duck.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis The
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated
North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated
Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis
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Key Political Conclusions
Click here to see the New NC Senate Map Proposed by the NC General Assembly
- UPDATE: 14 of North Carolina’s 100 counties have ½ of the state’s 6.1 million voters. Under the new state Senate maps, half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of those 14 counties. The counties are: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Durham, Buncombe, New Hanover, Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Pitt, Catawba and Iredell.
- UPDATE: The other half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of 86 counties.
- UPDATE: Mecklenburg County has 10% of the 50 Senate districts; Wake another 10%.
- UPDATE: During the past decade, 87 counties had a combined net population growth of 481,376, about the same as Wake and Mecklenburg combined.
- We are witness to the urbanization of political power in North Carolina.
- Under the new Senate districts, the majority party will likely be Republican for the remainder of the decade as there are 34 districts won by US Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race, 29 districts won by State Sen. Robert Pittenger in his 2008 race for lieutenant governor, and 26 districts won by US Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her last race against U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan in 2008.
- The GOP advantage in the number of Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican and the likely first ever Republican fund-raising advantage argue for a long-term Republican Senate majority in North Carolina.
- In 2008, there were 30 Senate districts that gave McCain a 50% or greater win, with 22 districts giving McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
- Under the new maps, there are 34 Senate districts that would have given McCain a 50%-or-greater win, with 27 that would give McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
Surprises & Interesting Notes
- Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and Senate President Pro Tem, is double-bunked with Sen. Don Vaughan, a Guilford County Democrat. Burger appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (51% to 45% Perdue) and McCain (57% to 43% Obama).
- Sen. Pete Brunstetter, a Forsyth County Republican, is double-bunked with Sen. Linda Garrou, a Forsyth County Democrat. Brunstetter appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (56% to 41% Perdue) and McCain (61% to 39% Obama).
- Sen. Debbie Clary, a Cleveland County Republican, is double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Warren Daniel from Burke County. Clary announced last month her intentions to resign. Her replacement will have to face Sen. Daniel.
- Sen. Jerry Tillman, a Randolph County Republican, has been double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Harris Blake from Moore County. Randolph County will have the advantage in the Republican primary.
- CORRECTED: Only two Senate Democrats were double-bunked: Sen. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Sen. Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) reside in the new Senate District 23, including all of Orange and Chatham counties.
Most Vulnerable Incumbents
- The most vulnerable Democrat senators, not counting those who are double bunked with a Republican, are Sen. Doug Berger from Franklin County, Sen. Bill Purcell from Scotland County, and Sen. Stan White from Dare County (Sen. Basnight’s old seat).
- The most vulnerable Republican senator, not counting those who are double bunked, is Sen. Wesley
- Meredith from Cumberland County (Sen. Tony Rand’s old seat).
- There are 9 majority-minority districts where the minority voting age population is 50% or greater. One district, Senate District 13, combines Robeson County and Columbus County to achieve a minority district that includes American Indian, Hispanic and African-Americans.
Legal Limits Established by GOP Stephenson Decision Limit GOP Gerrymandering
Republicans achieved one of the greatest political coups in North Carolina politics in 2003 by successfully litigating the radically gerrymandered maps drawn by the Democratic legislative majority following the 2000 census.
The Stephenson v. Bartlett decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court established new requirements for legislative redistricting in North Carolina that, ironically, now limit the ability of Republicans to do to Democrats what they have done to Republicans for many decades: radical partisan gerrymandering.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were 6 swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and rulings in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case, the courts in 2003 leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and 4 were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
This year, the Stephenson case has forced Republicans to comply with the following:
Voting Rights Act districts must be drawn first to ensure compliance with federal law.
- Population deviations must be within plus-or-minus 5% of the ideal district population.
- Creating districts within counties (urban counties) or by combining whole counties is required until it is no longer possible to create a district without using a part of a county.
- Example: Wake County now has 5 senate districts, 4 within the county and one in combination with all of Franklin County. Mecklenburg County has 5 districts, all within the county lines.
Before the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina looked more like a 1000-piece puzzle. After the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina look more like a state map of the counties. See the Legislative Guide to Redistricting for all law relating to remapping.
Sophisticated Mapping Technology Allows Long-range Maps
As with the congressional maps released two weeks ago, the changes in the new Senate maps are as politically significant as they are subtle, illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
Adding to the likelihood that Republicans will keep the Senate majority for the remainder of the decade is the fact that today’s remapping technology allows districts to be drawn with population growth projections.
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