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Investors Political Daily – Thursday, Sept. 23, 2010 Sen. A.B. Swindell’s Desperation Ad Exploits Mistaken Identity

by johndavis, September 23, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Investors-Political-Daily-Sept-23.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Sept 23] Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates “A June 23, 1999, affidavit from then Assistant District Attorney Gerald W. Wilson, 24th Prosecutorial District [Watauga County], states that there was no evidence that Newton [A.B. Swindell’s Republican challenger] was involved in the possession, use
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“A June 23, 1999, affidavit from then Assistant District Attorney Gerald W. Wilson, 24th Prosecutorial District [Watauga County], states that there was no evidence that Newton [A.B. Swindell’s Republican challenger] was involved in the possession, use or sale of drugs.” Rocky Mount Telegram, September 23, 2010

Post: September 23, 2010, by John Davis

In 2008, I knew that US Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-NC, was losing her race for another term when she ran the now infamous “Godless” ad against her Democratic opponent Kay Hagan, tying her to a group called the Godless Americans PAC.  The ad included a female voice saying, “There is no God.”  Hagan is a life-long Presbyterian; a former Sunday school teacher.

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

In 2008, I knew that state Treasurer Richard Moore, D-Vance, was losing his race with Beverly Perdue for the Democratic nomination for governor when he ran ads suggesting that Perdue was soft on the KKK.

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

Today’s Rocky Mount Telegram carries a story by Geoffrey Cooper about a political attack flyer mailed last week by A.B. Swindell, D-Nash, featuring a picture of cocaine and a record of felony drug charges against Buck Newton, his GOP opponent, that the Watauga County DA’s office says were a matter of mistaken identity.  There was never an arrest.

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

According to the Rocky Mount Telegram story, the flyer “depicts a police officer and several marked vehicles with flashing lights. The brochure also includes images of lines of cocaine on a mirror and scanned public records that show Newton’s full name and suggest that he was arrested and charged with eight felony drug counts.”

“A June 23, 1999, affidavit from then Assistant District Attorney Gerald W. Wilson, 24th Prosecutorial District, states that there was no evidence that Newton was involved in the possession, use or sale of drugs. The drug charges originally were brought against Newton as a result of an undercover operation carried out by Boone police officers.”

The affidavit also states that the “undercover police officer [who was responsible for the mistaken identity] was relieved of his duties shortly after the events.”

Swindell told the Rocky Mount Telegram “that he will continue to back the public records that have been presented in his campaign brochures.”

Perhaps Sen. Swindell needs to back the public affidavit dated June 23, 1999, from then Assistant District Attorney Gerald W. Wilson, 24th Prosecutorial District, that state “that there was no evidence that Newton was involved in the possession, use or sale of drugs.”

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

Today’s Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard has been changed.  Sen. A.B. Swindell, D-Nash is no longer “Favored” to win.  The “Favored” status has been shifted to his opponent Buck Newton.  Republicans now have 27 races where they are likely to prevail … and they only need 26 for a majority in the 50-member NC Senate.  Add them:  “Winners” (11 Republicans face no opposition), “Likely Winners” (9 safe Republican districts), or “Favored” to win (7 Republicans have the political advantage and would win if the election were held today.)  That’s 27 races where Republicans are likely to prevail.

I have also taken A.B. Swindell off the list of “Top 10 Opportunity Races” for free-market advocates, and replaced him on that list with Buck Newton.  Newton has a legal practice in Wilson and is Chairman of the Wilson County Republican Party.  If you would like to help Newton, go to his website and click on the “Donate” button: http://www.buckforsenate.com/

Remember, all of the “Top 10 Opportunity” candidates have hotlinks to their websites on the Investors Political Daily Scoreboard. If you will let your cursor hover over the names of the candidates who are underlined in the Senate and House Investors Political Daily charts, you will see that they are now hotlinked to campaign websites.  This is to facilitate your ability to help the candidates of your choosing in the races still in play in the battle for majority in the state Senate and House.

Well, there you have it.  September 23, 2010.  According to Investors Political Daily, the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in both the NC Senate and House in November.

Don’t forget, the John Davis Political Report is now accessible only with a username and password.  I hope that you will choose to stay on top of the Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following four levels of subscription:

Trial Subscription                          $4.85                    Two Weeks

Individual Subscription                 $48.50                  Annual                 Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                   $485.00                Annual                 Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription                $4850.00              Annual                 Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe today.

And as always, thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report!


SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small Business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Investors Political Daily – Monday, Sept. 20, 2010 GOP is well positioned to win the majority in both the NC Senate and House

by johndavis, September 20, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Investors-Political-Daily-Sept-20.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Sept 20] Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Today’s new Senate and House Investors Political Daily Scoreboards include hotlinks to the websites of candidates in the competitive races.  This is to facilitate your ability to help candidates in races still in play in the
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Today’s new Senate and House Investors Political Daily Scoreboards include hotlinks to the websites of candidates in the competitive races.  This is to facilitate your ability to help candidates in races still in play in the battle for majority in the state Senate and House. Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report

Post: September 20, 2010, by John Davis

Candidates Hotlinked on Investors Political Daily Scoreboards: Today’s new Senate and House Investors Political Daily Scoreboards include hotlinks to the websites of candidates in the competitive races.  If you will let your cursor hover over the names of the candidates who are underlined in the Senate and House Investors Political Daily charts, you will see that they are now hotlinked to campaign websites.  This is to facilitate your ability to help the candidates of your choosing in the races still in play in the battle for majority in the state Senate and House.

In the Senate, only candidates in the 13 campaigns in play are hotlinked: the “5 Toss Up races,” the “2 Democrats are Favored” races, and the “6 Republicans are Favored” races.  Open the Senate Investors Political Daily Scoreboard today and go to the website of one of the candidates in a contested race and send them a contribution.

In the House, only candidates in the 30 campaigns in play are hotlinked: the “10 Toss Up races,” the “12 Democrats are Favored” races, and the “8 Republicans are Favored” races.  Open the House Investors Political Daily Scoreboard today and go to the website of one of the candidates in a contested race and give them a hand.

NC Senate and House Scoreboards: Apply the 2010 Late Breaking Trends partisan momentum factor to state legislative races and you will see the following results:  Republicans already have the 26 seats needed for a majority in the North Carolina Senate; Democrats have 19.  There are 5 seats in the tossup category.

Republicans have 59 of the 61 seats needed to have a majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives; Democrats have 51 seats.  There are 10 seats in the tossup column.

Latest developments in state Senate and House races:

  • NC House Republicans now have 30 uncontested seats in their quest for a 61-seat majority.  Kevin Furr, D-Stanly, has been sent a “Notice of Termination of Active Status” from the SBOE.  Furr filed against Rep. Justin Burr, R-Stanly.
  • The SBOE notice stipulates that Furr can no longer spend a penny on his campaign legally; nor can he raise a penny legally.  Regardless, Furr could not have defeated Burr in this Republican stronghold.
  • In other NC House news, a new poll by the Carolina Strategy Group shows that an incumbent Alice Graham Underhill, D-Craven, is down by 15 points in her race.
  • Graham’s GOP challenger, Norm Sanderson, is listed as the likely winner in the NC House Investors Political Daily report.  Take a look at the full House report here.
  • Another poll released last week by the Carolina Opinion Survey firm shows that six-term incumbent Democratic Rep. Marian McLawhorn leads Republican challenger Stan Larson by 44 percent to 39 percent.  McLawhorn, from Pitt County, cannot take that lead for granted in a district where 55% of the Unaffiliated voters say they prefer a Republican to represent them in the NC House to only 19% who say they prefer a Democrat.
  • McLawhorn is “Favored” to win on today’s Investors Political Daily House chart.
  • On the Senate side: Democratic three-term incumbent state Sen. Joe Sam Queen, D-Haywood, is trailing in his re-election bid so says the Carolina Strategy Group.
  • GOP challenger Ralph Hise, Mayor of Spruce Pine, leads 50 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll for District 47.  The district is a GOP-leaning district made up of Avery, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell and Yancey Counties, and a part of Haywood County.  Hise is “Favored” to win on today’s Investors Political Daily Senate chart.
  • In Senate District 48, GOP challenger Dan Soucek leads two-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Steve Goss 48 percent to 41 percent among registered voters according to the latest Civitas/Survey USA poll.  District 45 is the most Republican district in the Senate that is held by a Democrat.  Soucek is “Favored” on the Investors Political Daily Senate chart.
  • Both Goss and Soucek, a small business owner, are from Watauga County.
  • And, in Senate District 9, the WILMINGTON STAR-NEWS reports that Jim Leutze, the Democratic candidate for the New Hanover County seat held by retiring Sen. Julia Boseman, will not be getting the financial support of the state Democratic Party.
  • Leutze says that party leaders told him that they are helping at-risk incumbents and that they believed he could beat GOP nominee Thom Goolsby without their money.  “They said they thought I didn’t need the money as much as others did,” Leutze said Friday.

Well, there you have it.  September 20, 2010.  According to Investors Political Daily, the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in both the NC Senate and House in November.

Don’t forget, the John Davis Political Report will be accessible only with a username and password beginning tomorrow, Tuesday, Sept. 21st, 2010.  I hope that you will choose to stay on top of the Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following four levels of subscription:

Trial Subscription                       $4.85                     Two Weeks

Individual Subscription           $48.50                  Annual                 Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription              $485.00               Annual                 Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription           $4850.00            Annual                 Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe today.

And as always, thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report!


SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small Business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Investors Political Daily – Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2010 NC Senate Majority is the Republicans to Lose

by johndavis, September 14, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/IPD-Senate-Sept-14-2010.mp3|titles=IPD Senate Sept 14 2010] Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Investor’s Political Daily Scoreboard: If the election were held today, Republicans would win the 26 seats needed for the majority in the 50-member NC Senate; Democrats have 19 of the 26 Senate seats needed for the
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Investor’s Political Daily Scoreboard: If the election were held today, Republicans would win the 26 seats needed for the majority in the 50-member NC Senate; Democrats have 19 of the 26 Senate seats needed for the majority; there are 5 toss up seats. Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report

Post: September 14, 2010, by John Davis

Investors Political Daily Says NC Senate Majority is the Republicans to Lose

INVESTORS POLITICAL DAILY: Today, the John Davis Political Report is introducing the Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard.  Today’s report includes the Top 10 opportunity races in the Senate those looking for free-market candidates that need help.  Investors Political Daily provides you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.  Here is today’s Senate report:

ONLY 13 NC SENATE RACES IN PLAY: Out of the 50 North Carolina Senate races, only 13 are still in play.  In 8 of the 13 races in play, one of the two candidates is “favored” … but the advantage is not an “uncontestable advantage.” There are only 5 “toss up races” out of the 50 Senate races.

DEMOCRATS HAVE 19 OF 26 NEEDED FOR MAJORITY: Today’s Investors Political Daily shows that Democrats have 19 of the 26 seats needed to maintain the majority in the North Carolina Senate.  Only one Democrat has “no opposition;” 16 are “likely winners” … because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  The most common “uncontestable advantage” is the fact that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.  An additional 2 Democrats are “favored” to win, in both cases because the voters in their district are a bit more likely to favor one party over the other … but in the volatility of 2010 politics, it’s not a sure bet.

REPUBLICANS HAVE 26 OF 26 NEEDED FOR MAJORITY: Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Republicans have 26 of the 26 seats needed to gain the majority in the North Carolina Senate.  Eleven (11) Republicans have “no opposition;” 9 are “likely winners” because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  Once again, the most common “uncontestable advantage” is that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.   Six (6) Republicans are “favored” to win.

DEMOCRATS MUST WIN ALL 5 “TOSS UP” RACES: The bottom line is this:  Democrats will have to win all 5 of the “toss up races,” and win two additional races that are now more likely to elect the Republican candidate, in order to hold the majority in the North Carolina Senate.    Republicans only need to win the races where they are “likely winners” or are “favored” in order to lead the NC Senate for the first time since 1898.

OPPORTUNITY RACES: Another feature of the Investors Political Daily is the list of Top 10 Opportunity Races for free-market advocates.  They are noted with a green checkmark.

WHAT’S DIFFERENT ABOUT 2010 THAT FAVORS A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY?

  • In October of 2008, Democrats had a 47% to 37% advantage on the generic ballot question, “If the election for North Carolina legislature were held today, would you be voting for the Democrat or the Republican.”
  • In September of 2010, Republicans have a 49% to 41% advantage on the generic ballot question in a recent poll by the Democratic leaning polling firm, Public Policy Polling.
  • Obama has no coattails in 2010 for Democratic candidates.
  • Obama had 47 headquarters in North Carolina in 2008 staffed by over 400 paid field organizers. Where are the 47 headquarters and 400 paid field organizers?
  • Independent voters have flipped from 2-to-1 for the Democrats to 2-to-1 for the Republicans. Independent voters helped elect new GOP governors in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a Republican to Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat.
  • Obama’s all-important base of young voters, African American voters and women, are showing significantly less interest in turning out for Democrats.
  • A leadership shakeup in the Democratic Party in North Carolina, driven by scandal, retirements, a Senate caucus coup, and new leadership in the state party headquarters, has weakened the party’s ability to do battle.
  • Democrats now own the economy, and at best the economy is sputtering to recover.
  • Republicans are better organized than ever before and are showing clear evidence of unprecedented fundraising success.  If Republicans minimize the disparity in campaign funding that has historically helped Democrats win close races, they will win much more than a simple majority of the state Senate races.

Well, there you have it.  If the election were held today, Republicans would win the 26 seats needed for the majority in the 50-member NC Senate.  Democrats would win 19 of the 26 Senate seats needed for the majority, and the parties would likely split the 5 toss up seats, giving the GOP at least a 28 to 22 ruling majority.

SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small Business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Late Breaking Trends – Monday, September 13, 2010 GOP Momentum Yields Enthusiasm, Money, Volunteers and Fired-up Candidates.

by johndavis, September 13, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Late-Breaking-Trends-Sept-13-2010.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Sept 13 2010] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Compare today’s 11% of Americans who rate the economy as “excellent or good” to the 74% who rated the economy as “excellent or good”
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races

Advantage Democrats

Advantage Republicans

“Compare today’s 11% of Americans who rate the economy as “excellent or good” to the 74% who rated the economy as “excellent or good” during election year 2000.  All incumbents were safe in the year 2000. They were not safe in 1994, the last time Americans rated the economy at 11% “excellent or good, and they are not safe today.”             Late Breaking Trends, September 13, 2010

Post: September 13, 2010   by John Davis

LATE BREAKING TRENDS – NORTH CAROLINA’S DAILY PARTISAN POLITICAL ADVANTAGE FORECAST

UNDEREMPLOYMENT:  Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts you will see that Gallup reports that underemployment is back up to 18.5%, moving in the wrong direction for any vulnerable incumbent seeking reelection. Underemployment is a combination of unemployment and those who are working part-time but wishing to work full-time.

If underemployment is at 18.5% for all Americans, it’s around 28% for young Americans in the 18 to 29-year-old age group; around 38% for the youngest American workers in the 18 to 24 year-old age group. It’s little wonder that young people are disillusioned with Pres. Obama and are opting out of this election cycle.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:  Gallup also reports today that only 11% of Americans rate the economic conditions of the country as either “excellent or good.” Almost half, 46%, rate economic conditions in the country today as “poor.” The last time only 11% of Americans rated the economic conditions of the country is either “excellent or good” was 1994 … the election year that a Republican tide swept Democrats out of office throughout the 50 states. Compare that 11% to the 74% who rated the economy as either “excellent or good” in election year 2000. That was during the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. All incumbents were safe in the year 2000. They were not safe in 1994, and they are not safe today.

OBAMA “JOB APPROVAL”: Real Clear Politics reports today that president Obama’s average job approval continues to hover well below 50% … now at 46.3% approving and 49.3% disapproving.  Here in North Carolina, Obama’s average job disapproval is 55%, with only 43% approving of the job that he is doing as president.

CONGRESSIONAL “JOB APPROVAL”:  Congressional job approval continues to be dismal, with only 23% approving and a whopping 72% disapproving. On the generic ballot question, “If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican for Congress,” Republicans enjoy a 48% to 40% advantage. Why are Democrats in such trouble? The answer is in another number from Real Clear Politics: only 29% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction; 63% say that the country is on the wrong track.

KISSELL MOST VULNERABLE NC CONGRESSMAN:  There is no question that members of Congress will take the brunt of American voter ire in November. Here in North Carolina, the most likely member of the U.S. Congress to lose is Congressman Larry Kissell, a Montgomery County Democrat, who holds the seat held by Robin Hayes, a Cabarrus County Republican, for five terms.  Kissell’s opponent is Harold Johnson, who was a sportscaster on Charlotte-based WSOC TV for decades.  According to today’s Hotline political report, Kissell is on the short list of vulnerable Democrats who will receive over $1 million to buy air time.  Hummm, he just may have a fighting chance.  Oh, wait a minute, there is a story in today’s News & Observer about a group named Americans for Job Security that plans to spend $600,000 against Kissell.  It’s all about who votes, and right now it’s the Republicans who are enthusiastic about voting.

In 2008, Democratic voters made up 55% of the voters to 45% for Republicans … in one of the most successful years for Democrats in modern political history.  However, in 2006, 2004 and 2002, more Republicans turned out than Democrats in this district.  The last election year that Republicans enjoyed the partisan momentum was 2002.  President Bush had high job approval numbers and Elizabeth Dole, who won the US Senate race, was treated like a rock star everywhere she went.  That year 54% of the voters who turned out in this district were Republicans; 46% were Democrats.  Kissell is very vulnerable.

BURR ON TRACK TO WIN REELECTION:  In the U.S. Senate race here in North Carolina, there is little doubt that U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is the odds-on favorite in his race with Sec. of State Elaine Marshall.  Burr reported $6.3 million cash-on-hand to the Federal Election Commission as of June 30; Marshall reported $188,000. Insiders say that Cal Cunningham, the Davidson County attorney who lost the primary to Marshall in May, was the preferred nominee of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in Washington … having been perceived as the only one of the two who could defeat Sen. Burr.  Without the financial backing of the DSCC, Marshall has little hope of winning.

GOP LIKELY TO WIN MAJORITY U.S. HOUSE:  Overall, Republicans only need a net gain of 39 seats to take over the U.S. House of Representatives. Charlie Cook, the country’s most seasoned prognosticator, says that Republicans will pick up a minimum of 40 seats.  Bottom line: Republicans are very likely to take over the U.S. House.  They are not as likely to take over the U.S. Senate. Look for divided power and gridlock in Washington during the next couple of years … gridlock seasoned with the hot sauce of partisan recalcitrance.

GOP MAY WIN MAJORITY IN N.C. HOUSE:  Republicans are also on track to win a majority of the seats in the North Carolina House. If you haven’t already, take a look at my new feature Investors Political Daily. Investors Political Daily gives you a scoreboard that shows where the Democrats and Republicans are in their battle for the all-important 61 seats out of the 120-member North Carolina House.

Republicans have 59 seats that they have either already won (29), are likely to win (22), or are favored to win (8).  Democrats are trailing at 51 seats that they have either already won (11), are likely to win (28), or are favored to win (12).  Democrats will have to win all 10 of the tossup races in order to keep the majority.

NC SENATE SCOREBOARD IN TOMORROW’S INVESTORS POLITICAL DAILY: Tomorrow you will receive the Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard. One of the key variables used to forecast the outcome of state Senate and House races is the Late Breaking Trends partisan political advantage. Today, September 13, 2010, Republicans have solid partisan political advantage over Democrats in North Carolina … an advantage that translates into enthusiasm which translates into money and volunteers and fired-up candidates.

Well there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends for Monday, September 13, 2010.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Investors Political Daily – Wednesday, September 8, 2010 Republicans May Win Majority in the NC House

by johndavis, September 8, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Investors-Political-Daily-Sept-8.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Sept 8] Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates “Investor’s Political Daily Scoreboard: Republicans have 59 or the 61 needed for the majority; Democrats have 51 of the 61 House seats needed for the majority.” Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report Post: September 8,
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Investor’s Political Daily Scoreboard: Republicans have 59 or the 61 needed for the majority; Democrats have 51 of the 61 House seats needed for the majority. Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report

Post: September 8, 2010, by John Davis

Republicans May Win Majority in the NC House

Today, the John Davis Political Report is introducing a new feature entitled Investors Political Daily.  Investors Political Daily provides you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.  Here are the inaugural results:

Out of the 120 North Carolina House races, only 30 are still in play.  In 20 of the 30 races in play, one of the two candidates is “favored” at the starting line … but the advantage is not an “uncontestable advantage.” There are only 10 “toss up races” out of the 120 House races.

Today’s Investors Political Daily shows that Democrats have 51 of the 61 seats needed to maintain the majority in the North Carolina House.  Eleven (11) Democrats have “no opposition;” 28 are “likely winners” … because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  The most common “uncontestable advantage” is the fact that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.  Another 12 Democrats are “favored” to win, in most cases because the voters in their district are a bit more likely to favor one party over the other … but it’s not a sure bet.

Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Republicans have 59 of the 61 seats needed to gain the majority in the North Carolina House.  Twenty-nine (29) Republicans have “no opposition;” 22 are “likely winners” because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  Once again, the most common “uncontestable advantage” is the fact that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.   Another 8 Republicans are favored to win.

The bottom line is this:  Democrats will have to win all 10 of the “toss up races” in order to hold the majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives.  Republicans only need to win 2 “toss up races” to gain the majority.  Of course, that assumes that both parties win the races where they currently enjoy an advantage.

Opportunity Races:  Another feature of the Investors Political Daily is the weekly list of Top 10 Opportunity Races for free-market advocates There are 10 races selected in today’s Investors Political Daily as “Opportunity Races” for the first week in September. These include incumbent business allies who face tough opposition, and non-incumbents who would likely be business allies if they win … and who can win if you will but help.  They are noted with a green checkmark.

From an investment standpoint, if your objective is to improve the balance of power in the North Carolina House so business folks can grow and thrive and restore jobs for the unemployed and underemployed, you should put your money and time where you can make the difference in the outcome of the race; not where the outcome is already decided.  Pick a candidate with a green check mark … or one of the other thirty house races still in play.  They really do need your help.

Well, there you have it.  I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Late Breaking Trends – Tuesday, August 31, 2010 GOP HEAT WAVE BREAKS 68-YEAR-OLD RECORD DATING TO 1942

by johndavis, August 31, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Late-Breaking-Trends-Aug-31.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Aug 31] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Republican average weekly advantages over Democrats during August are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which
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Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Late-Breaking-Trends-Aug-31.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Aug 31]

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races

Advantage Democrats

Advantage Republicans

“Republican average weekly advantages over Democrats during August are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.” Gallup News Release, August 30, 2010

Post: August 31, 2010, by John Davis

GOP HEAT WAVE BREAKS 68-YEAR-OLD RECORD DATING TO 1942

It has been hot here in Raleigh this year.  As a matter of fact, this summer we had a 102° day that broke a 61-year-old record for heat in the Triangle.  Politically, throughout the United States, it has been a long, hot summer too … especially for Republicans.  According to Gallup, when it comes to political heat, the Grand Ole Party has broken a 68-year-old record.

Yesterday, Monday, August 30, 2010, Gallup announced that Republicans had a 51% to 41% lead over Democrats among registered voters in Gallup’s weekly tracking of 2010 congressional generic ballot.  Gallup stated that Republican weekly leads over Democrats in August “are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.  That’s 68 years ago … a fact that cannot be overemphasized.

August has not ended well for Democrats.  Just last week, on the economic/political fronts:

  • Sales of existing homes dropped 27% from June to July, the lowest point since 1999.
  • The Dow closed just below 10,000 for the first time since early July.
  • On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described the nation’s economic outlook as “inherently uncertain” and said the economy “remains vulnerable to unexpected developments.”
  • ON THE POLITICAL FRONT:  In Florida last Tuesday, the Democratic Senate primary drew just over 900,000 voters; the Republican primary, more than 1,250,000.  National political observers said that independents went Republican on Tuesday in huge numbers; and that Republicans turned out big … a lot of Democrats stayed home.
  • ALASKA UPSET:  Perhaps the biggest news of the day last Tuesday was the apparent upset of Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who outspent her Sarah Palin and Tea Party backed opponent 20-to-1 … the outcome to be decided this week by absentee ballots.
  • Also on Tuesday, the North Carolina State Board of Elections fined Democratic Gov. Perdue $30,000 for failing to disclose 42 private airplane flights in a timely manner.
  • Wake County DA Colon Willoughby is reviewing the records to see if any further action is warranted.  Listen for the roar of airplane engines in those political ads this fall.
  • DISSENTION IN THE DEMOCRATIC RANKS: The State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) picketed the home of Ken Eudy, former head of the state Democratic Party, during a fundraiser last week for the state Senate Democratic Caucus.  According to Tom Campbell with NCSPIN, there were more uninvited protestors than invited guests.
  • Campbell also reported that another NC Senate Caucus fundraiser in Linville was attended by mostly Appalachian State University folks … and that both Senators Marc Basnight and David Hoyle were reportedly pessimistic about the fall elections.

As if last week’s news wasn’t bad enough, now, Gallup makes two major political announcements on Monday: the GOP’s record-breaking lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot question, and, Gallup announced on Monday that Republicans have a 25-point lead over Democrats when it comes to voters who are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall … the largest advantage of the year.

Republicans are poised to take the US House this fall; not as likely to take the US Senate … the opportunities just are not there.  However, here in North Carolina, Republicans have their best shot since 1994 of winning a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly.

Coming soon to the John Davis Political ReportInvestors Political Daily.  This new feature will highlight free-market candidates who will win IF you will invest in their candidacy.  I will also keep a running count of where both parties are in the battle for the legislative majority.

WEBSITE REMODELING NEAR COMPLETION – LOOK FOR LABOR DAY LAUNCH

When you finish this report, take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you will see two changes:

  • First, I have consolidated the two campaign finance variables … mid-year “Cash on Hand” of all candidates by party along with “Party Fundraising.”  I did this because historically candidates who do not need all of their money pass it on to the party who uses it to help other party candidates.  Ultimately, it’s all the same war chest.
  • However, knowing the importance of the financial advantage in a campaign, I quadrupled the weight of the combined fundraising in the algorithm. No other variable weighs more.
  • Finally, I have added the NC Obama “Job Approval” variable.  After pouring over polls all last week, it became very clear that this election is a referendum on President Obama.  This variable is tripled in the “Late Breaking Trends” algorithm.

Well, there you have it.  The week began with North Carolina Republicans continuing their partisan political advantage … by 16 points in the Senate chart, and by 12 points in the House chart.  All else being equal, the Republican momentum going into the General Election races adds 8 points to GOP state Senate candidates and 6 points to GOP state house candidates.  Remember, momentum translates into enthusiasm which translates into money and volunteers and fired-up candidates.  It’s the winning difference in close races.

Thanks again for reading and listening to the John Davis political report.

Late Breaking Trends – Friday, August 27, 2010 HOW WILL OBAMA’S FALL FROM FAVOR IMPACT NC’s RACES IN 2010

by johndavis, August 27, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Late-Breaking-Trends-Aug-27-Take-2.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Aug 27 Audio] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “I understand that intellectually,” said Obama, “but this is my life and career.  And I think I could probably do every job on the
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Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Late-Breaking-Trends-Aug-27-Take-2.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Aug 27 Audio]

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races

Advantage Democrats

Advantage Republicans

“I understand that intellectually,” said Obama, “but this is my life and career.  And I think I could probably do every job on the campaign better than the people I’ll hire to do it.”[1] David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, The Audacity to Win, 2009

Post: August 27, 2010, by John Davis

HOW WILL OBAMA’S FALL FROM FAVOR IMPACT NC’s RACES IN 2010

Have you ever been turned off by one of those cocky conservatives … one of those sanctimonious know-it-alls who behave as if their notions of what’s best for our state and nation should be enacted with righteous indifference to the will of the governed?  I thought you might have.  So now you know why the country is mad at President Barack Obama … and why North Carolina Democrats are likely to pay dearly this fall.

President Obama’s job approval is at record lows because he comes across like a sanctimonious know-it-all who thinks his left-of-center notions of what’s best for our nation should be enacted with righteous indifference to the will of the governed … most of whom are either conservative or moderate.

According to a study of national ideological identity released by Gallup earlier this month, “Americans are much more likely to identify themselves politically as conservative than as liberal in 49 of 50 states.[ii] On average, conservatives outnumber liberals by about 20 percentage points across all states. Only in the District of Columbia and Rhode Island did liberals outnumber conservatives during the first half of 2010.

The Gallup study shows that 42% of respondents this year said that they are either “conservative” or “very conservative.”  Only 20% have told Gallup they are “liberal,” with 35% of Americans say they are “moderate.”  It’s no wonder that President Obama, the highest ranked liberal member of the U.S. Senate before winning a set of keys to the Oval Office, is struggling with high negative job approval numbers.

In his book, The Audacity to Win, President Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe writes about Obama’s “substantial ego,” recalling their first meeting in Chicago back in 2004.  He was trying to persuade Obama of the importance of allowing campaign professionals to run his U.S. Senate campaign.  “You just have to let go and trust,” Plouffe told him.  “I understand that intellectually,” said Obama, “but this is my life and career.  And I think I could probably do every job on the campaign better than the people I’ll hire to do it.”[iii]

Sound familiar?  That’s why he is in trouble with the American public, and hurting the chances of Democrats in North Carolina this fall.  He acts as if he and the other 20% of the “liberal” voters in America know better how to solve the problems of the day than the 80% who are either conservative or moderate.

What about North Carolina … our ideological identity?  Well, according to Gallup, “Liberals” total only 16% as of mid-year 2010; “Conservatives” total 43%; “moderates” total 37%.  Looking only at the all-important Unaffiliated voters, now numbering 1.44 million in our state … nearly one in four of all voters … only 15% are “Liberals,” with 41% saying they are  “Conservatives” and with “moderates” totaling another 41%.  These are the folks who carried the state for Obama and Perdue and Hagan in 2008 … they kept the Democrats in the drivers seat.

Chris Hayes, Senior Legislative Analyst with the John W. Pope Civitas Institute in Raleigh is doing a politically invaluable four-part study of North Carolina’s “Unaffiliated” voters in a series titled, “Analyzing the State Legislative District Polling.”[iv] In Part 3 of the series, subtitled “The Obama Effect,” Hayes makes the following startling comparison of Obama’s favorability ratings among “Unaffiliated” voters in North Carolina today as compared to 2008:

“In an October 2008 Civitas poll, weeks before the presidential election, Obama’s favorability rating with Unaffiliated voters was +15 (54% favorable, 39% unfavorable).  But in just under two years time, the tables have turned.  In a Civitas August 2010 poll of Unaffiliated voters, Obama’s favorability rating had fallen to -7 (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable).  Obama has suffered a net loss of 22 percentage points in his favorability rating and his prospects for recovery do not seem to be improving,” concludes Hayes.

Imagine running Down East this fall as a Democrat.  Does anyone really believe that those conservative Eastern North Carolina yellow-dog Democrats … formerly AKA Jessecrats … are just going to roll over like trained puppies and support the party’s candidates after being insulted time and again by the indifference of this White House to their notions of what’s right?  Many of those Down East legislative districts that have always elected Democrats are now in play.

President Obama still has a chance to minimize the negative impact his fall from favor is having on the political fortunes of North Carolina Democrats.  First, he must accept the fact that you can’t do as you please in a nation founded on the principle of respect for the “consent of the governed.”  Second, he must accept the fact that conservatives outnumber liberals by statistically significant margins in 49 of the 50 states … and that nationally and here in the old North State, 80% of us are not liberal.

Well, there you have it, now you know why the country is mad at President Barack Obama … and why North Carolina Democrats are likely to pay dearly this fall.

Thank you for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.


[i] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Viking Press, Pg. 8.

[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/141677/Wyoming-Mississippi-Utah-Rank-Conservative-States.aspx#2

[iii] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Viking Press, Pg. 8.

[iv] Analyzing the State Legislative District Polling, The Obama Effect, by Chris Hayes, Senior Legislative Analyst, Civitas.

Late Breaking Trends – Tuesday, August 24, 2010 DEMOCRATIC LEADERS IN CRISIS – A STORM SURGE THREATENS

by johndavis, August 23, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Late-Breaking-Trends-Aug-24.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Aug 24] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “North Carolina Republicans have an asset this year Democrats don’t have: Tom Fetzer.[i] Democratic consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, The Fetzer Factor, April 7,
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Late-Breaking-Trends-Aug-24.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Aug 24]

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races

Advantage Democrats

Advantage Republicans

“North Carolina Republicans have an asset this year Democrats don’t have: Tom Fetzer.[i] Democratic consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, The Fetzer Factor, April 7, 2010

Post: August 24, 2010, by John Davis

DEMOCRATIC LEADERS IN CRISIS – A STORM SURGE THREATENS

North Carolina Democrats have been successful for decades because of leadership, unity, and the willingness to work hard to raise the money needed to keep the majority in the state Senate and House … as well as the majority on the Council of State.  This year, an anti-establishment storm surge is threatening their shores.  However, a stormy election year is not new.  They have survived many of those.  What is new is that at a time that they need strong leadership the most, many of their leaders are embroiled in one crisis after another.

EMBATTLED STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS FINES PERDUE $30,000 TODAY: Today, the Democratic-led North Carolina State Board of Elections met in Asheville to consider evidence that Democratic Gov. Perdue cheated on her campaign finance reports by failing to disclose 42 private airplane flights in a timely manner.  Ruling: She was fined $30,000 for failure to report the 42 campaign flights on private aircraft.  Former Democratic Gov. Mike Easley has already been fined $100,000 for breaking the rules with regards to reporting private flights.  Ironically, the Democratic Chairman of the State Board of Elections is being accused of interjecting himself improperly into a staff investigation of Gov. Perdue’s campaign reporting, and the Democratic Executive Director of the State Board of Elections is under scrutiny for allowing his partisan bias to influence his decisions in the Perdue case.  All in all, a political nightmare.

SEANC PROTESTING AT NC SENATE FUNDRAISER TONIGHT:  Tonight, the State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) will be picketing outside the home of Ken Eudy, former head of the state Democratic Party, who is hosting a fundraiser for the state Senate Democratic Caucus.  SEANC has accused Eudy, CEO of a PR firm named Capstrat, of “pay-to-play” politics, for having received millions of dollars in state contracts.

NC DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRMAN DAVID YOUNG UNDER FIRE:  Meanwhile, according to Tom Campbell in last week’s NC SPIN online report, current state Democratic Party Chairman David Young, “… has been relegated to the back seat because of the internal grumbling about his low-profile performance and the lack of any type of aggressive communication effort.”[i] Campbell writes that a coordinate campaign for the fall is being headed up by others to pick up the slack.  Not good folks.

Young also faced criticism back home in Asheville in May because of a complaint about orange-colored water in a mobile home park he owns in Weaverville.  The Asheville Citizen-Times columnist John Boyle scolded Young in a May 27 commentary titled, Time for David Young to do the right thing, saying, “You’ve been a politician for two decades, and you head the party that stakes a claim to helping the least affluent among us. And this is how you treat the people who live in your trailer park?”  Ouch!

NC GOP CHAIRMAN TOM FETZER A “HEAT-SEEKING MISSILE”

While Young struggles to get his footing during his first election year as the head of the NC Democratic Party, Tom Fetzer, new head of the NC Republican Party, is getting high marks for successes in uniting the party, raising money, and driving the Democrats nuts.  Fetzer’s modus operandi is best described as an unrelenting, in-your-face, attack-dog style of partisan combat.

Even long-time Democratic consultant Gary Pearce has been complimentary of Fetzer’s performance as GOP chairman.  In April, Pearce wrote in his blog titled Talking About Politics, “North Carolina Republicans have an asset this year Democrats don’t have: Tom Fetzer.[ii] Pearce noted that Fetzer was going around the state like a “heat-seeking missile,” while his Democratic counterpart is “clearly not comfortable playing the role of political hit man.”

THE STORM SURGE IS IN THE DETAILS

When you finish this report, take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you can clearly see the storm surge that threatens Democrats this fall.

  • Aug. 23: Gallup says Obama’s weekly “job approval” average at a new low of 43%, and that this is his first weekly average “job disapproval” above 50%.
  • If Perdue’s numbers continue to be this poor, she will likely be a drag on Democratic legislative candidates this fall,” said Tom Jensen with Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling in April.  According to today’s POLLSTER.COM,  Perdue’s rolling average “unfavorable” is 40%; “favorable 33.3%.[iii]
  • Economic conditions are perceived as “Excellent/Good” by only 12% of Americans.
  • Shakeup in the NC Senate Caucus has resulted in the departure of Sen. Basnight’s closest allies and savviest political generals.  Add the eight retirements in the Senate Democratic Caucus and you can readily see an unprecedented degree of difficulty in 2010.
  • Senate Republicans are at virtual parity in mid-year Cash-on-Hand, reporting $2.4 million Cash-on-Hand to $2.5 for all Democratic candidates.
  • House Republicans have the strongest and most disciplined tag-team in memory, with Minority Leader Skip Stam sharing the war duties with Minority Whip Thom Tillis.
  • Republicans have stolen Obama’s playbook and say they will not be beat in early voting turnout.
  • Democratic fundraising prowess is weakened by three things:  the economy, the intense investigations into campaign finance violations, and … everyone is hedging their bets.
  • Loyalty dies as power wanes.  Remember, in politics, there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends.

But most of all, what is truly different about North Carolina politics as we near the Labor Day kickoff of the fall campaigns, is that at a time the Democrats need strong leadership the most, many of their top leaders are embroiled in one crisis after another.  You can handle a political storm surge provided you have strong leaders.  Without leaders, you’re in a whole lot of trouble.

Thank you for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.


[i] http://www.ncspin.com August 19, 2010 post

[ii] Talking About Politics, The Fetzer Factor, Posted April 7, 2010

[iii] http://www.pollster.com/polls/nc/fav-perdue.php

Late Breaking Trends – Week in Review WEALTHY LIBERALS SITTING ON WALLETS

by johndavis, August 20, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/John-Davis-LBT-8-20-Revised-8-21.mp3|titles=John Davis LBT 8 20 Revised 8 21] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Democratic operatives trying to raise money for expensive ad campaigns report that the wealthy liberals (and, to some extent, labor unions) who
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Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/John-Davis-LBT-8-20-Revised-8-21.mp3|titles=John Davis LBT 8 20 Revised 8 21]

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races

Advantage Democrats

Advantage Republicans

“Democratic operatives trying to raise money for expensive ad campaigns report that the wealthy liberals (and, to some extent, labor unions) who wrote huge checks to independent groups for advertising campaigns in the past three election cycles, are sitting on their wallets.” Politico, “GOP outside cash has Dems scrambling,” 8/20/2010

Post: August 20, 2010, by John Davis

WEEK IN REVIEW: This week ended as it began, with Republicans enjoying favorable political winds in their sails.  On Tuesday, I pointed out that “underemployment” … which includes Americans who are unemployed and those who are working part-time but wanting full-time work … is over 18%.  Among Americans without college degrees, 23% are underemployed. Among young people in the 18-to-29-year-old age range, underemployment is at 28%.  But the most startling number is this:  almost 4 in 10 of the youngest of the young voters … those 18-to-24 years old … are underemployed.  Those voters, who were filled with enthusiasm in 2008 because of the inspiring campaign of President Obama, are now disenchanted.

Compounding the negative political fallout for Democrats of high “underemployment” is a lack of job security among those who are employed.  According  to a new study released by Gallup this week, almost 40% of those who are employed are worried that their benefits will be reduced; one in four are worried that they will be laid off or have to accept a cut in pay.

“UNDEREMPLOYMENT” TAKEAWAY: “Underemployed” voters, along with those who lack job security, are going to do one of two things on Election Day this November:  not vote or vote against the establishment … Democrats.

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL PLUMMETING: Other new numbers this week that bode ill for Democrats include President Obama’s job approval.   According to Real Clear Politics, a website that keeps a rolling average of all national polls during the previous two weeks, Obama’s job approval reached a weekly average low of only 44%.  Today, Friday, August 20, Gallup has Obama’s job approval at a three-day rolling average of only 41%, with 52% of Americans disapproving.

It’s no wonder that we are also seeing enthusiasm trending more favorably for Republicans than Democrats. This week, 44% of Republicans told Gallup that they were very enthusiastic about voting this fall. Among Democrats, only 28% said they were very enthusiastic.

WEALTHY LIBERALS SITTING ON WALLETS: According to a story in today’s Politico, “GOP outside cash has Dems scrambling,” the Democratic Party’s lack of enthusiasm is a donor phenomenon as well.[i] “Democratic operatives trying to raise money for expensive ad campaigns report that the wealthy liberals (and, to some extent, labor unions) who wrote huge checks to independent groups for advertising campaigns in the past three election cycles, are sitting on their wallets.”  The article attributes the decline in liberal money to the “lingering recession,” the “absence of a single unifying enemy” like President George W. Bush, disenchantment with the Obama political operation, and tension between the White House and organized labor.

Politico writer Kenneth Vogel notes that 7-out-of-10 of the largest and most successful independent Democratic-leaning groups from the past three election cycles are behind in their fundraising … “some by a wide margin.”

NC DEMOCRATS AND LABOR FEUDING OVER PAY-TO-PLAY POLITICS: The growing tension between organized labor and the White House became very apparent in Arkansas in June, when unions spent $3.1 million trying to defeat White House-backed US Sen. Blanche Lincoln … because she didn’t support their agenda on health care.  After being criticized by the White House for their failed effort to defeat Lincoln, AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale said, “Labor isn’t an arm of the Democratic Party.”[ii] Those are feuding words.

We have seen similar tension grow this year between organized labor in North Carolina and the state Democratic Party.  SEANC, the state employees association … an affiliate of the Service Employees International Union, worked with SEIU to create a new political party called North Carolina First.  Why?  To teach the state’s three conservative Democratic US Congressmen a lesson … because they voted against the union position on Obama’s healthcare bill.

Historically, it is Republicans who have diluted their political effectiveness with internal feuding. This year it’s the Democrats. This week we saw evidence of that split in the Democratic Party when Dana Cope, head of SEANC, attacked former state party chairman Ken Eudy for “pay to play” politics … because Eudy, who has received numerous lucrative state contracts, is planning a fundraiser at his home featuring NC Senate Democratic Caucus leaders.

NC SENATE MARTIN NESBITT SAID: About the accusation of “pay-to-play” impropriety, Senate Majority Leader Martin Nesbitt from Buncombe County said, “You can’t deny someone the right to participate in politics simply because they do business with the state.”  I agree with Sen. Nesbitt.  But I also think he should have added the following sentence: “You can deny someone business with the state if they don’t participate in Democratic Party fundraisers.”

DEMOCRATS HAVE TOUGHER HILL TO CLIMB: Democrats are masters at using the leverage of power to gain the financial advantage necessary to win close races in years when the political winds favor Republicans. But this year their challenges are far greater. They have lost their old warrior general in former Senator Tony Rand, and six members of their caucus retired leaving novice candidates in Republican-friendly territories … like the seats being vacated by Sen. Hoyle from Gaston County, Sen. Bozeman from New Hanover County, and Sen. RC Soles from Columbus County.

Several others in the Senate Democratic Caucus are seriously threatened … including four in seats once held by Republicans like Sen. John Snow from Cherokee County, Sen. Joe Sam Queen from Haywood County, Sen. Steve Goss from Watauga County and Sen. Tony Foriest  from Alamance County.

All in all, if the political trends continue the Republican friendly track of this week, we just may see Republicans make history in November with the takeover of the state senate and house.

Thanks for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.


[i] http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=8C2FC588-18FE-70B2-A8D1B9A2F56EB579

[ii] http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0610/AFL_to_White_House_Labor_isnt_an_arm_of_the_Democratic_Party.html

Late Breaking Trends – North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Political Advantage Forecast

by johndavis, August 18, 2010

Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/JDavis-LateBreakingTrends081810.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends – August 18, 2010] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans President Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing
[More…]

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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/JDavis-LateBreakingTrends081810.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends – August 18, 2010]

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races

Advantage Democrats

Advantage Republicans

President Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing the country. Gallup, 8/17/2010

Post: August 18, 2010, by John Davis

NEW TRACKING CHARTS: If you take a look at the bottom of today’s Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts, you will see that I have added a graph at the bottom of the page. This graph will be used to plot the partisan political advantage trend line all the way from this week to Election Day. After two election cycles with the momentum favoring Democrats, the numbers now show a solid momentum advantage for Republicans leading up to the all-important Labor Day kick-off of the General Election season.

Republican state Senate candidates, with an 8-point momentum advantage, fair slightly better than their state House counterparts because the Senate GOP Caucus has been more successful in raising early money. Mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections show a virtual dead-heat in the total Cash-on-Hand of all Senate Republican and Democratic candidates. Democrats reported $2.5 million Cash-on-Hand; Republicans reported $2.4 million. On the House side, Democrats reported $3.3 million Cash-on-Hand; Republicans reported $1.3 million. The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation has done an excellent summary of the mid-year finance reporting by legislative candidates.[i] You can review it on their website: www.ncfef.org.

For many election cycles, the three-to-one … four-to-one … five-to-one disparities in campaign funding has helped Democrats win the close races … races that ultimately decided the majority in the state Senate and House. Here are a couple of good examples from 2008:

  • Sen. Julia Bozeman, a New Hanover County Democrat, spent $871,539 to win 52% of the vote against her GOP challenger who spent only $250,075 … in a Democratic-friendly year that saw record-breaking new registrations and turnout for Democrats. The Democratic Party gave Bozeman $555,475. The Republican Party contributed only $77,500 to their candidate. This year is a Republican friendly year. The seat, once held by GOP Sen. Patrick Ballantine, is open … meaning all advantages of incumbency are lost … and the money is even. Civitas gives this district a GOP-friendly R+3 on it’s NC Partisan Index.[ii]
  • Sen. Toni Foriest, an Alamance County Democrat, spent $647,293 to win 52% of the vote against his GOP challenger who spent only $173,152 … in a Democratic friendly year that saw record-breaking new registrations and turnout for Democrats. This is a Republican friendly year, the money is even, and the seat was held by GOP Sen. Hugh Webster for six terms. Civitas gives this district and R+3 on it’s NC Partisan Index

So, as you can see, this election year things are quite different. No one has ever seen Senate Republicans even with Democrats in any fundraising category. And, it has been more than a decade since House Republicans were as well organized and poised to exploit their momentum advantage and close the funding gap. Add the fact that Republicans are working together to defeat Democrats rather than each other, and you can readily see that something is quite different this year in the politics of the Ole North State. Perhaps, just perhaps, we are seeing the makings of a powerful Republican political war machine that will rival the national model war machine build by North Carolina Democrats.

Yesterday, the GOP momentum advantage increased with the release of new polling information from the Gallup organization. Here are the highlights:

  • Generic Congressional Ballot Favors GOP: “GOP shows strongest positioning yet in 2010 votes cast,” reads the headline of Gallup’s latest release of congressional generic ballot results. The national survey of registered voters asked: If the election for congress were held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican? Republicans, who were favored by only 43% in mid July, now enjoy a 50% to 43% advantage among US registered voters.
  • Obama’s Job Approval at Historic Low: President Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing the country
  • Party ID Tied: Another trend that does not bode well for Democrats is the loss of advantage with the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats rather than Republicans. In January, Democrats had a 45% to 40% advantage. Today, both parties are tied with 42% each.
  • Independent Voters Trending Republican: One of the most startling findings by Gallup thus far in August is that Independent voters in the country are far more inclined to vote for Republicans for Congress this year than for Democrats. Republicans received a 47% thumbs up; Democrats only 34%. Thirteen points is a major disparity.
  • Voter Enthusiasm Trending Republican: But perhaps the most startling finding by Gallup deals with the enthusiasm among the Republicans and Democrats about voting this fall. Among Republicans, 44% say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall. Among Democrats, a dismal 28% say they are “very enthusiastic.”

So, there you have it, a Republican-friendly fall in the making based in the Late Breaking Trends … found only in the John Davis Political Report. Remember, take a look at the bottom of today’s Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts so that you can see the new graph for tracking how the partisan political advantage changes between now and Election Day.

Thanks for reading … and listening … to the John Davis Political Report.



[i] http://ncfef.org/NCFEF_News/Entries/2010/8/12_Campaign_Finance_Reports__Analyzing_State_Parties_Coffers.html

[ii] http://www.nccivitas.org/n-c-partisan-index-state-senate-districts