Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/JDavisRpt81610.mp3|titles=JDavisRpt81610] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans High unemployment this fall, coupled with high underemployment and high anxiety among the employed, is a potentially lethal concoction of political variables for North Carolina Democrats. Post: August 16,
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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Advantage DemocratsHigh unemployment this fall, coupled with high underemployment and high anxiety among the employed, is a potentially lethal concoction of political variables for North Carolina Democrats.
Post: August 16, 2010, by John Davis
If you will take a close look at the Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts, you will see that I use “underemployment” rather than “unemployment.” Here is why:
Underemployment, at 18.5% today according to Gallup, is a far more politically significant predictor of voter behavior than unemployment. Underemployment includes both Americans who are unemployed and those who are working part-time but wanting full-time work. Especially hard hit are Americans without college degrees, where 23% are underemployed. Those voters are afraid, angry, and are not likely to vote for the ins come November.
Underemployment also helps in understanding why many voters among President Obama’s 2008 winning coalition have soured on politics in general … and Obama in particular. Young voters, those aged 18-to-29, have an underemployment rate of 28.4% … including 11.8% who are unemployed and 16.6% who are employed part-time but looking for full-time work. It’s no wonder that they have become disillusioned with political engagement.
Compounding the negative political fallout for Democrats of high underemployment is the lack of job security among those who are employed. According to a new study released today by Gallup, almost 40% of those who are employed are worried that their benefits will be reduced (39%), that they will be laid off or their wages cut (26%), or that their company will move their job overseas (8%).[i]
Add high underemployment to high anxiety among the employed and you can readily see why Democrats have a growing political problem.
Mortimer Zuckerman, chairman and editor in chief of US News and World Report, wrote an Op Ed piece in today’s WSJ[ii] in which he makes the following disconcerting observations:
- We are at least 2.5 million jobs short of getting back to the unemployment rate of 8% promised by the Obama administration
- We are coming out of the current recession at a 2.4% growth rate, as compared to the normal post-World War II recovery rate of 6% real GDP
- Real unemployment today is well above the headline number of 9.5% if you factor in the 1,115,000 people who gave up hope of finding work in the last three months
Zuckerman’s conclusions echo those of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernankes, who told Congress last month that the country’s economic outlook remains “unusually uncertain.”[iii]
In politics, “unusual uncertainty” yields unusual turnover.
How long will it take to restore jobs for the underemployed and job security for the employed? “In all likelihood,” Bernanke told the US Senate Banking Committee in July, “a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8.5 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009.”
The few short months remaining between now and Election Day November 2010 does not a significant amount of time make. High real unemployment this fall, coupled with high underemployment and high anxiety among the employed, is a potentially lethal concoction of political variables for North Carolina Democrats.
Now you know why I use underemployment rather than just unemployment. The politics of 2010 is being driven by numbers packing a much more powerful political punch than a mere 10% unemployment rate.
Tomorrow, I will being add a daily tracking chart to the bottom of the Senate and House Late Breaking Trends daily reports so that you can see how the partisan political advantage changes over time.
Meanwhile, take a look at the Late Breaking Trends charts above or in the sidebar. You will see that Republicans continue to have a partisan political advantage in both the state House and state Senate campaigns … despite the financial advantage of the Democratic Party. That’s because of underemployment.
[i] http://www.gallup.com/poll/142154/Workers-Elevated-Alert-Potential-Job-Pay-Cuts.aspx
[ii] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703960004575427332237529948.html
[iii] http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/21/news/economy/bernanke_testimony/index.htm
Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “These are Obama voters. These are not Democratic voters.” Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, Washington Post: August 13, 2010 President Obama’s “Job Approval” ratings at the beginning of his administration hovered at 70% in most national polls, with less than
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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“These are Obama voters. These are not Democratic voters.” Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, Washington Post: August 13, 2010
President Obama’s “Job Approval” ratings at the beginning of his administration hovered at 70% in most national polls, with less than 20% of Americans disapproving. Now, Obama’s “Job Approval” ratings average 44%, with 49% disapproving according to today’s Real Clear Politics rolling average.
How important is a trend like the president’s job approval? Since 1946, according to Gallup, “presidents with job approval ratings below 50% at the time of midterm elections have seen their parties lose an average of 36 U.S. House seats, compared with an average loss of 14 seats for presidents with approval ratings above 50%.” For example, President Clinton’s job approval was 46% during his first mid-term election in 1994, leading to a loss of 53 Democrats in the US House. In 1998, Clinton’s job approval was 20-points higher at 66%, leading to gain of 5 seats in the US House.
Trends are a big deal. They are especially useful in establishing and tracking which party has a political advantage … an advantage that morphs into momentum that drives turnout that determines winners in many close races.
That’s why I have developed a new feature called, Late Breaking Trends – Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Partisan Political Advantage. There is one for the NC Senate and one for the NC House. That is because of trends like “Contributions” that vary by chamber.
Late Breaking Trends will be updated daily … real time as news breaks about changes like the economy, underemployment, satisfaction with the direction of the state and nation, and the partisan preferences of the all-important independent voters.
Each day I will update the NC Senate and NC House Late Breaking Trends, and highlight one or two of the trends for purposes of amplifying their political significance. Today’s highlight is:
Highlighted Trend: TURNOUT Advantage Republicans 
- Fact 6/21: Republicans enjoy the highest partisan “enthusiasm advantage” ever recorded by Gallup, and have sustained that advantage all year. Republicans have a positive net of 14 points on Gallup’s “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” question; Democrats have a negative net of 21 points.
- Fact 7/16: Republicans are more enthused than Democrats by 66% to 51% says North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm.)
- Fact 7/11: Washington Post story says Black voters are ambivalent about midterm elections. “These are Obama voters. These are not Democratic voters,” said Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher.
- Fact 6/20: New minority and young voters from 2008 are not enthusiastic this year. Democrats plan to spend $50 million to reenergize them. “What the Democrats don’t have is a candidate on the ballot named Obama. Instead, they face a political climate in which hope and exhilaration has given way to anger and disappointment.”
- Fact 5/5: The 426,000 Democrats who cast a ballot in the US Senate primary in NC this year represents a 32% decline from the 628,000 who voted in the 2002 US Senate primary [the first mid-term election of the Bush presidency], says Public Policy Polling. All of this despite the almost ½ million more Democrats on the voter registration rolls than in 2002. State Board of Elections
- Fact: Republican early-voting turnout in the NC Primary in May was 74% of 2008 turnout (74,143 in 2010; 88,931 in 2008). Democratic early-voting turnout was 26% of 2008 turnout (103,277 in 2010; 408,910 in 2008). Source: Civitas
All candidates for public office will assure you that they can win with your money. In reality, many candidates do not need a whole lot of money to win … such as those in a safe district who have a weak opponent. And, many candidates cannot win no matter how much money you give them.
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All candidates for public office will assure you that they can win with your money. In reality, many candidates do not need a whole lot of money to win … such as those in a safe district who have a weak opponent. And, many candidates cannot win no matter how much money you give them.
Investors Political Daily is a new feature of the John Davis Political Report that will highlight free-market candidates who need help, and can win their races if you help them with a contribution.
- Click here for the full Investors Political Daily Report for the NC House
- Investors Political Daily Report for NC Senate – COMING SOON!
“Hunt criticized the Democratic controlled General Assembly for raising taxes in 1991 during the recession, saying the budgetary shortfall was ‘sheer government mismanagement.’”[i] Rob Christensen, News & Observer, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics Twenty-five years ago, in Washington DC, U.S. Senator Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican, was beginning his third term in the
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“Hunt criticized the Democratic controlled General Assembly for raising taxes in 1991 during the recession, saying the budgetary shortfall was ‘sheer government mismanagement.’”[i] Rob Christensen, News & Observer, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
Twenty-five years ago, in Washington DC, U.S. Senator Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican, was beginning his third term in the world’s greatest deliberative body.
In Raleigh, former two-term Governor Jim Hunt, a Democrat, was returning to the practice of law. He had lost to Helms in the 1984 epic battle of political titans in the US Senate race. Hunt was all washed up; a mere single-entry footnote in the annals of state political history. Wrong.
Jim Hunt, today’s patriarch of the North Carolina Democratic Party, went on to serve a third and fourth term as Governor, a first since 1776. He achieved an extraordinary and unprecedented list of accomplishments … not the least of which was the exalted partisan political triumph of becoming the state Republican Party’s worst nightmare of the past two-and-a-half decades.
As News & Observer political writer Rob Christensen pointed out in his book, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics, “Hunt kept the Democratic Party from going under during a Republican tide by his political skills, ideological nimbleness, and the fact that he never stopped working.”[ii]
Jim Hunt has become the Michael Jordan, the David Thompson, and the Christian Laettner of modern-day North Carolina politics … that player that is simply better than everyone else on the court. You know the one … the one with the most wins.
This report examines the teachable personal qualities of Jim Hunt, such as “ideological nimbleness” and work ethic, along with the political skills that have made Jim Hunt the extraordinary winner that he has become. What if Hunt had gone to Washington DC in 1985 and Helms had stayed in North Carolina? Is there a Republican Jim Hunt?
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Part IV: Liability 9 “The Toyota affair emphasizes some basic points of management. First, any company, no matter how large and how famous for its merits, can stumble into grave error. Second, damaged pride and nervous fear make it difficult to correct the error in good time. Third, management decisions should normally never be taken
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Part IV: Liability 9
“The Toyota affair emphasizes some basic points of management. First, any company, no matter how large and how famous for its merits, can stumble into grave error. Second, damaged pride and nervous fear make it difficult to correct the error in good time. Third, management decisions should normally never be taken on the basis of profit forecasts alone.” Edward de Bono & Robert Heller, The Toyota disaster – and what we can learn from it[i]
This is Part IV in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of
sloppy standards and corrupt leaders. Parts I, II, and III can be found at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
The 10 premises in the series, all political liabilities, lead to the following conclusion: Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.
The following paragraph is restated from the last report for emphasis: What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
In Parts I, II and III of the series, I wrote about liabilities including:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
Here is number nine:
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
Those who make the laws should abide by them. Those who would be leaders should lead by example. These two moral imperatives have been overshadowed in the North Carolina Democratic Party by their #1 moral imperative: Partisan power at all costs.
North Carolina Democrats offer protection for their errant leaders behind a wall of silence. If one among them breaks the law (quid pro quo deals, Cannonsgate, quid pro quo deals, illegal flights, quid pro quo deals, tax evasion, and more quid pro quo deals), or compromises principles and values (Law Enforcement Associates’ no-bid contract, university job plus 88% salary increase for Gov’s wife, a judicial district for your DA buddy who lost his election, using the “N” word in front of your six-year-old child, $27,012 for limo services in France), the first sense of moral obligation for North Carolina Democrats is to keep quiet and bide their time.
Keep Your Mouth Shut Long Enough, and the Problem will Go Away
Toyota handled its problems with defective accelerator pedals on millions of its vehicles the same way North Carolina Democrats have handled their problems with defective leaders: they stonewalled the public. “They did try to hide it — that’s what we accused them of — and they’ve agreed to that,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told the Associated Press, upon announcing the largest fine in department history in April of this year. Toyota put profit over principle. They knew parts were defective and kept it under wraps. If it were not for whistleblowers forcing exposure, people would still be dying in runaway Toyota automobiles.
Democrats know that they can use their unchecked power to muscle everyone with a legislative agenda to be a stone in their protective wall of silence. From lobbyists and governmental agency heads, to members of boards and commissions, education officials … even some news reporters; all are aware that you better protect the leadership at all costs or you don’t get access.
No access means no money, no new buildings, no inside scoop, no road contracts … no nothing.
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Part III: Liabilities 7-8 “Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[i] W. David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, The Destruction of the Great American Dream This is Part III in a series of reports suggesting that the
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Part III: Liabilities 7-8
“Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[i]
W. David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, The Destruction of the Great American Dream
This is Part III in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
Forbes.com carried an editorial on April 26, 2010, titled, The Real Reason for Toyota’s Troubles, in which Kenneth Brill, founder of the Uptime Institute, hypothesized that the random catastrophic failure of Toyota’s acceleration systems was most likely the result of multiple and perhaps unrelated interacting causes. “At least five and as many as ten things must interact to produce the failure of a well-designed system,” said Brill, “Any one thing by itself will cause a problem but not a catastrophic event.”
What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that there are ten political liabilities unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of the Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to a Loss of Market Share would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
In Parts I and II of the series, I wrote about liabilities including:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
Here are liabilities 7 and 8:
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
Wednesday, Gallup announced that so far in 2010, an average of only 23% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. The 2010 average is “well below the 40% historical average” over the past 30 years, and is the “lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.”[ii]
To put this percentage in perspective, the all-time high was 71% in February, 1999, when we were enjoying the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. The all-time low was 7% in October 2008, leading to catastrophic losses for the “ins”: Republicans.
The dissatisfaction sweeping the county first became apparent last summer with TV news footage of awkward and embarrassed incumbents taken aback by the ire of finger-wagging-in-your-face constituents at Town Hall Meetings. The political significance of the dissatisfaction played out with upsets in the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey, and with the shocking upset election of Republican Scott Brown in former Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat.
In April, another key antiestablishment signal came with the stunning turnabout in the U.S. Senate GOP primary race in Florida, where incumbent GOP Gov. Charlie Crist dropped out to run as an Independent because the more conservative GOP candidate had a 2-to-1 advantage.
Last week, we saw the antiestablishment ouster of incumbents like Republican Bob Bennett in Utah and West Virginia Democrat Allan Mollohan. This week we saw the antiestablishment overthrow of Pennsylvania’s Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, along with the big Tea Party antiestablishment upset in Kentucky as Rand Paul was elected GOP Senate nominee despite Republican Party establishment opposition.
In Arkansas, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln was forced into a primary runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter as the antiestablishment/anti-Washington virus spread west of the Mississippi, reinforcing the meaning of the state’s motto, “Regnat Populus,” meaning “The People Rule.”
David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, writes in his latest book, The Destruction of the Great American Dream, “Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[iii] Based on what voters have done since last summer, it looks like a lot of folks read his book!
Just like Republicans, who were in trouble in North Carolina when satisfaction with the direction of the country was low in 2008, Democrats in North Carolina are in trouble with low satisfaction with the direction of the country in 2010 … the “lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.”v]
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
Imagine a parade without a leader; a parade that simply forms in the street and grows in number as people come out of their kitchens and backyards and join those already on the march. That’s what’s happening in American politics today. Pundits and party pros snobbishly criticize the lack of organization of groups like the Tea Party movement, in denial that these folks are a bottom up parade of angry citizens who are using the Internet rather than the party as a means of communicating with each other and turning out their like-minded voters.
In a Politico story yesterday titled, Activists seize control of politics, Jim Vande Hei wrote, “The old structures that protected incumbent power are weakening. New structures, from partisan news outlets to online social networks, are giving anti-establishment politicians access to two essential elements of effective campaigns: publicity and financial support.”[v]
Take a look at the following political ad for Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture. This is a great example of the power of the internet as an equalizer to traditional party communications advantages:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0&NR=1
This ad has been posted for one day and has been seen by 818,244 people … including you. Cost to the candidate for those 818,244 views? $0. This guy is going to win without the party.
Even the most liberal sources acknowledge the Internet as a means to bypass the traditional party infrastructures and win campaigns. This week, Markos Moulitsas of the liberal Daily Kos said, “The old structures have been eroding, … we’re building a world in which people can bypass their parties’ institutional forces and make up their own minds on who to support.”
On Tuesday, Gallup unveiled a new national poll on enthusiasm in which they concluded, “Conservatives are significantly more enthusiastic about voting in this fall’s congressional elections than are liberals or moderates. Those who say they are “very” conservative are the most enthusiastic of all.”
Experts have concluded that catastrophic failure of Toyota’s acceleration systems was most likely the result of multiple causes happening at the same time. What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that there are 10 political liabilities unfolding at the same time, not the least of which are the historic low level of satisfaction with the direction of the country and the high level of enthusiasm for voting among conservatives.
[i] The Destruction of the Great American Dream, W. David Stedman, Published 2009; Pg. 37
[ii] Gallup, May 19, 2010; http://www.gallup.com/poll; Satisfaction with U.S. Historically Low for Midterm Year
[iii] The Destruction of the Great American Dream, W. David Stedman, Published 2009; Pg. 37
[iv] Gallup, May 19, 2010; http://www.gallup.com/poll; Satisfaction with U.S. Historically Low for Midterm Year
[v] http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37468.html#ixzz0oOWBrAJG
Part II: Liabilities 5 – 6 NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans. This is Part II in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much
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Part II: Liabilities 5 – 6
NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans.
This is Part II in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company. They are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
Last Tuesday, May 4, the Associated Press reported that a U.S. Senate committee was recommending a major overhaul to the nation’s auto safety requirements following Toyota’s recalls involving 8 million cars and trucks. Toyota was forced to pay a record fine for failing to disclose a safety defect with sticking gas pedals in a timely manner, and is currently facing an estimated $4 billion in personal injury/wrongful death lawsuits.[i]
On Monday, the AP reported that Toyota spent a record $2,498 per vehicle on incentives in March, a 53% increase over last year. [ii] Toyota is minimizing brand damage caused by faulty gas pedals and brakes the same way the state Democratic Party minimizes brand damage caused by sloppy standards and corrupt leaders: by spending a lot of money on spin control.
In Part I of the series, I wrote about:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
Here are political liabilities 5 – 6:
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker like Perdue the Ethics Governor
I was sitting at the kitchen table Tuesday morning reading a story in the News & Observer about yet another NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) investigation into Toyota’s failure to report problems with defective steering rods,[iii] when a Toyota ad came on the television. The carmaker was extolling its commitment to safety. Ironically, the N&O also carried a story Tuesday about Gov. Perdue extolling her commitment to ethics reform.
If you are committed to ethics reform, you really should do something besides just claim to be for ethics reform. And, if you are going to make speeches around the state decrying the evils of “smoke-filled rooms,” “pay-to-play” politics and “back room dealing,” you certainly don’t hire people like … ummmmm, well, to quote Gov. Perdue, “I don’t have to give any examples. I don’t have to call any names.”[iv] (Actually, I was going to name former state Senator Tony “Back Room Deal” Rand, who served as Chairman of the Rules Committee and Majority Leader in the Senate until last year, but thought better of it.) Second thought:
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Part I: Liabilities 1 – 4 NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans. Toyota Motor Company has lost market share because of worldwide recalls of millions of its cars due to management mistakes
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Part I: Liabilities 1 – 4
NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans.
Toyota Motor Company has lost market share because of worldwide recalls of millions of its cars due to management mistakes that led to frightening problems like mysterious acceleration, unreliable breaks and rollovers.[i] Meanwhile, Ford Motor Company just posted a $2.1 billion first quarter profit and is touting the best market share gain since 1977. “It benefited from Toyota’s safety recalls of millions of vehicles,” said Kelley Blue Book, “Ford was one of the top brands considered by Toyota owners who were shopping for a new car.”[ii]
Toyota’s brand is so damaged by sloppy standards that it must now offer promotional gimmicks like 0% loans and $2,000 rebates to lure customers. Likewise, the brand of the North Carolina Democrat Party is so tarnished by a decade of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders that the only way it has kept Republicans from taking over state government is by outspending them 3-to-1 on incentives and political promotional gimmicks.
Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win; that is what is happening in this state.
During the next few weeks I will be writing about the Top 10 political liabilities that have cost Democrats market share and turned the North Carolina Democratic Party into the Toyota Motor Company of state politics. Here are the first four:
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“If the effort [North Carolina First political party] does manage to get on the ballot, expect candidates in U.S. House races in Districts 7 [Democrat Mike McIntyre], District 8 [Democrat Larry Kissell] and District 11 [Democrat Heath Shuler]. They’re the homes of the three Democratic members of Congress who voted against their party’s healthcare bill.”
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“If the effort [North Carolina First political party] does manage to get on the ballot, expect candidates in U.S. House races in Districts 7 [Democrat Mike McIntyre], District 8 [Democrat Larry Kissell] and District 11 [Democrat Heath Shuler]. They’re the homes of the three Democratic members of Congress who voted against their party’s healthcare bill.” [i]
The image of Democratic candidates running for political office in North Carolina this year reminds me of Lord Tennyson’s dramatic Crimean War poem The Charge of the Light Brigade. Written in 1854, the poem tells the true story of British Cavalry charging into a valley with the Russian enemy on three sides. Cannon to the right of them, cannon to the left of them, cannon in front of them … into the jaws of Death, into the mouth of Hell rode the six hundred.
As if Democrats didn’t already have their hands full charging into battle with Republicans to the right of them and 1.4 million Unaffiliated voters in front of them, along comes a new union-backed group to the left of them called North Carolina First.
North Carolina First is funded by SEIU, the Service Employees International Union. SEIU invested $1.8 million in North Carolina candidates in 2008. SEANC, the State Employees Association of North Carolina, is SEIU’s Local #2008. Although 97% of their money went to Democrats in 2008, SEIU is back in 2010 to teach three conservative Democrats who voted against Obama’s healthcare bill a lesson. And they are not stopping with Members of Congress.
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