John Davis Consulting

Biden Executive Orders Revoke Trump Legacy; Will He Avoid the First Term Disasters of Clinton and Obama?

February 23, 2021         Vol. XIV, No. 4       7:13 am

32 Biden executive orders show power to circumvent Congress

Nothing says presidential power like the power to revoke the executive orders of your predecessor. Case in point: Last week, President Biden signed his 32^nd executive order since his January 20, 2021 Inauguration, Executive Order on the Revocation of Executive Order 13801. Here is the link to all of President Biden’s executive orders as maintained by the Federal Register.

Just like that, with each stroke of President Biden’s pen, the residual power of President Trump’s pen weakened. “America First” nationalism swapped for global reengagement; the World Health Organization, the Paris Climate Agreement. Travel ban reversed on certain Muslim countries.

Just like that, domestic priorities reversed. Obamacare marketplaces reopened, construction of President Trump’s border wall ended, and the Keystone XL pipeline shut down. With the stroke of Biden’s pen, certain restrictions on abortion funding lifted, LGBTQ community protections expanded, climate change now a national security priority, and collective bargaining for federal workers restored.

So, how do Biden’s 32 first-month executive orders compare to the executive orders issued by all other US presidents? Per The American Presidency Project, President George Washington issued only eight executive orders in his entire eight-year presidency.

• The first 15 presidents, Washington through Buchanan, issued a combined total of 143 executive orders, an average of 9.5 orders during their entire tenure as president.
• The next 15 presidents, Lincoln through Coolidge, issued a combined total of 6,452 executive orders, an average of 430 during their entire tenure as president.
• The next 15 presidents, Herbert Hoover through Donald Trump, issued a combined Total of 9,152 executive orders, an average of 610 per administration.

As to 21^st Century presidents, George W. Bush issued 291 executive orders for an average of 36 per year; Barack Obama issued 276 for a 35-per-year average; Donald Trump issued 220 for a 55-per-year average. Though Biden’s 32 orders in a month may seem excessive, he knows what he is doing.

What sets President Biden apart from former presidents is that he is beginning his tenure with almost five decades of experience in Washington. He knows every trick in the book, including how to accomplish his policy objectives by using executive orders to circumvent the legislative process.

First term political disasters of Clinton and Obama

If the Biden Administration allows its priorities to be set exclusively by urban voters, those who live in the 551 counties he won in 2020 — out of the nation’s 3,139 total counties — he will pay the same political price paid by former Democratic Presidents Clinton and Obama. While true that only 18% of all U.S. counties gave him the win and 7 million more votes than Trump, ignoring the 82% of the counties that voted against him risks disastrous political consequences in next year’s elections.

Metropolitan counties are the home of the Biden coalition. More diverse. More college-educated. Younger. Upper-income liberals. And home to most of the nation’s economic activity. Think about this: per Brookings, 71% of U.S. economic activity is in the 18% of American counties carried by Biden. Only 29% of the nation’s GDP is generated in the 82% of counties carried by Trump.

These facts help explain the partisan estrangement in America. The great divide between Biden and Trump voters is not just about the nation’s cultural and policy differences, it is as much about the availability of income opportunities in the very counties we call home. All 3,139 of them.

Joe Biden knows that rookie mistakes made by the last two Democratic presidents were responsible for catastrophic losses in Congressional seats. The mistakes? Rushing to appease the demands of urban liberal voters at the expense of moderate and conservative voters in non-metropolitan counties.

In 1994, early first-term mistakes made by President Bill Clinton fueled the loss of the Democratic majority in the US House, held by Democrats for 40 years, as well as the US Senate. In 2010, mistakes made by President Barack Obama during his first two years cost Democrats a net loss of 63 seats and control of the US House, the greatest loss of seats since the GOP lost 75 seats in 1948.

President Biden is not likely to make the same mistakes.

Biden is a wise old hand in the wily ways of Washington

President Biden is a wise old hand in the wily ways of Washington. He has served for 47 years in the nation’s capital: the US Senate, 1973-2009; the Vice Presidency, 2009-2017; and now the US Presidency. He starts every negotiation with the advantage of unmatched political experience.

Biden has seen how Presidents Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, GHW Bush, Clinton, GW Bush, Obama, and Trump used their authority to accomplish great things. And he remembers their mistakes.

Odds are Biden knows exactly what he is doing with his record-setting pace of 32 executive orders in his first month in office. It is also likely that Biden plans to govern closer to the nation’s ideological center this year, much to the chagrin of left-wing Democrats, all in the effort to avoid a political disaster during the 2022 elections, much to the chagrin of right-wing Republicans.

Will President Biden avoid the first term political disasters of Clinton and Obama?

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

For more information: www.johndavisconsulting.com

Failure of Democrats to Apply the Pelosi-Nadler Impeachment Test Drives Trump’s Return to Power

February 17, 2021         Vol. XIV, No. 3       1:13 pm

The sinister smirk that said impeachment was abuse of authority

The image of that sinister smirk is emblazoned in my mind. It was a we-finally-got-him smirk by one of the US House impeachment managers as they walked ceremoniously past the TV crews in the Capitol Rotunda to deliver the Articles of Impeachment to the US Senate.

It was a smirk that confirmed what I had grown to believe, that the House majority had weaponized their impeachment authority for the illegitimate political purpose of destroying the President and his party. The President was Bill Clinton. The impeachment manager behind the sinister smirk was Rep. Lindsey Graham, a two-term Republican House member from South Carolina.

Why had I concluded that President Bill Clinton’s impeachment was illegitimate? Because Special Prosecutor Ken Starr’s investigation meandered for four years from one dead-end scandal to another, spending $70 million, before Bill Clinton’s infamous lie about his affair with a White House intern. Finally, Starr had a hook to hang an impeachment on. Perjury about an affair. Impeach him!

Can you imagine how many Presidents would have been impeached over lying about an affair?

In 1998, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, a 58-year-old Democrat from California, said on the eve of the House vote on Articles of Impeachment, “We are here today because the Republicans in the House are paralyzed with hatred of President Clinton.” Pelosi argued that the real reason Speaker Newt Gingrich and the GOP Caucus were impeaching Clinton was partisan revenge, an election year political gambit.

Wait. Was Pelosi accusing the Republican caucus of abusing their impeachment authority for political retribution and tactical advantage? If true, how would you ever know?

The answer to that question came from Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-NY, during the 1998 impeachment debate. “There must never be a narrowly voted impeachment or an impeachment supported by one of our major political parties and opposed by the other.”

So, using Rep. Nadler’s test, was there bipartisan support in 1998 for impeaching President Clinton for perjuring himself about an affair? Of 228 “Yea” votes, 223 were Republicans, 5 were Democrats.

Pelosi and Nadler were right in their assessment of the impeachment of President Clinton. The motive was political because it was a “narrowly voted impeachment” supported by only one party.

Now you know why I have never forgotten Rep. Lindsay Graham’s “we finally got him” smirk.

Did Trump’s first impeachment pass the Pelosi-Nadler test?

Applying the 1998 Pelosi-Nadler test using bipartisanship to establish the legitimacy of an impeachment against a US President, let’s examine the Trump impeachments led by Speaker Pelosi.

First, it is important to remember that Pelosi was adamantly against impeaching President Trump early on. During an interview with the Washington Post in March 2019, Pelosi said, “Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path.”

As to why she would change her mind on impeaching President Trump without bipartisan support, Pelosi told the Washington Post that the country was strong enough to withstand one Trump term, “But maybe not two [Trump] terms. So we have to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

In May 2019, Rep. Al Green, D-TX, confirmed the Democrats’ motive for impeaching President Trump when he said, “I’m concerned that if we don’t impeach this president, he will get re-elected.”

In November 2019, two House Committees, Intelligence and Judiciary, led by Democrats, heard allegations of impeachable offenses committed by President Trump during a phone call with the Ukrainian president. The committees voted to proceed with impeachment with “0” bipartisan votes.

On December 18, 2019, not one of the 198 Republican members of the US House was persuaded to vote for the articles of impeachment against President Trump. Zero “0” bipartisan votes.

So, with “0” bipartisan support in the House, how could Democrats expect to persuade 20 Republicans in the US Senate to vote to convict? They didn’t. Conviction was never the goal. On December 20, 2019, Pelosi admitted as much in an AP interview, “He just got impeached. He’ll be impeached forever. No matter what the Senate does.”

The impeachment of President Trump in 2019 failed the Pelosi-Nadler test using bipartisanship for establishing the legitimacy of an impeachment. It was a “narrowly voted impeachment” supported by only one party. Democrats hated Trump. Impeachment was partisan vengeance.

Did Trump’s second impeachment pass the Pelosi-Nadler test?

How about the second impeachment of President Trump, did it pass the Pelosi-Nadler test?

The articles of impeachment alleged President Trump incited an insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Did Democrats really believe they could get 17 Republican Senators, 34% of the GOP Caucus, to vote guilty, when only 5% of the GOP House Caucus supported impeachment?

Applying the Pelosi-Nadler test using bipartisan support to establish the legitimacy of the impeachment of President Trump for incitement of insurrection, of the 232 “Yea” votes, 222 were Democrats, 10 were Republicans. The impeachment vote clearly failed the Pelosi-Nadler test because it was a “narrowly voted impeachment” supported almost entirely by one party (Democrats 96%; Republicans 4%).

Before the second impeachment, Speaker Pelosi had Trump on the mat. She had played a key role in helping former Vice President Joe Biden defeat Trump in 2020. Trump was down for the count.

But now, because Speaker Pelosi proceeded with the impeachment of President Trump for incitement of insurrection without passing the Pelosi-Nadler test, everyone knows the real motive was revenge. Revenge drove Pelosi to impeach Trump twice. Revenge is why she lost twice.

Speaker Pelosi’s hatred of Trump is now aiding his political recovery.

New poll shows Trump’s standing among GOP on the rise

A new Morning Consult poll released yesterday, Tuesday, February 16, 2021, is titled, Trump Emerges From Impeachment Trial With Sturdy Backing From GOP Voters. The poll shows that 54% of GOP voters would support Trump in a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary.

• 59% of GOP voters said Trump should play a “major role” in the Republican Party going forward, up 18 points since a Jan. 6-7 survey.
• The share of Republicans who said Trump is at least somewhat responsible for the events of Jan. 6 is down 14 points, to 27%, from early January.

In 1998, House Republicans learned a valuable political lesson about impeachment. If revenge is your motive, voters will turn on you. The day after the GOP House passed the Articles of Impeachment against President Clinton, his “favorability” soared to 72%!

The failure of Democrats to apply the 1998 Pelosi-Nadler test using bipartisanship to measure the legitimacy of articles of impeachment is now driving former President Trump’s return to power.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

For more information: www.johndavisconsulting.com

Impeachment Trial Will Show Foolish Demagoguery as Constitutional, Not an Incitement of Insurrection

February 9, 2021         Vol. XIV, No. 2       4:13 pm

Foolish demagoguery is constitutional

Donald Trump brings out the worst in everyone, friend and foe alike. He brings out the worst in friends when he expects blind loyalty to everything he says or does, even if his expectations explode angrily from a narcissistic temper tantrum rather than the wise counsel of presidential advisors.

Think of these former Trump Administration officials who were summarily dismissed and thrown under the bus by Trump in a tirade of insulting tweets because they refused to grovel sufficiently:

Per the website Trump Twitter Archive, a compilation of the 26,237 tweets he posted during his presidency, Trump tweeted that his first Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was “dumb as a rock and totally ill prepared and ill equipped to be Secretary of State.” He tweeted that his first Secretary of Defense James “Mad Dog” Mattis was “our Country’s most overrated General…he was terrible!”

Of his first Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Trump said, “He’s not mentally qualified to be Attorney General.”  He called National Security Advisor John Bolton a “washed up Creepster…a lowlife who should be in jail,” and said his first Chief of Staff John Kelly “went out with a whimper.”

The Trump Twitter Archive documents that President Trump has sent 234 tweets with the expression “loser;” 222 tweets with the expression “dumb” or “dummy;” 183 tweets with the expression “stupid;” 156 tweets with the expression “weak;” and 117 tweets with the expression “dope” or “dopey.”

In hundreds of additional tweets President Trump used insults like “incompetent,” “pathetic,” “moron,” and “lowlife.” On 83 occasions, Trump used the word “fool” in his tweets, which, along with all the other thousands of slights, puts him on the short list of America’s most foolish presidents.

However, foolish demagoguery is not unconstitutional, nor is it an incitement of insurrection.

On January 6, 2021, at the “Save America Rally,” Trump continued to insist that the presidential election was stolen. The fact that no court or state official, including in GOP-led states, had found indictable evidence of election fraud was irrelevant. He believed there was fraud.

Refusing to accept the rulings of state and federal courts, including the US Supreme Court, on the constitutionality of election law changes necessitated by the pandemic may be foolish, and firing up the MAGA crowd to march to the US Capitol and protest their sincere belief that those courts and election officials were wrong, may be doubly foolish, but both are constitutionally protected speech.

Domestic terrorists and violent extremists exploited Trump protest

Domestic terrorists and violent extremists were identified by the Department of Homeland Security in their Homeland Threat Assessment published in October 2020 as those “who seek to force ideological change in the United States through violence, death, and destruction.”

A particularly relevant section of the Homeland Threat Assessment report is titled, Exploitation of Lawful and Protected Speech and Protests. It describes an “alarming trend of exploitation of lawful protests causing violence, death, and destruction in American communities.”

That is what happened on January 6.

The officially permitted “Save America Rally” got out of hand at the Capitol when domestic terrorists and violent extremists in the crowd exploited an otherwise peaceful march. They assaulted cops, overran the security perimeter, broke into the Capitol, destroyed property, and disrupted a Joint Session of Congress. It was violent anti-government, anti-authority anarchists who struck a Capitol Police officer with a fire extinguisher so violently that he died the next day from his injuries.

Per the Homeland Threat Assessment report, “As of the date of this publication, we have seen over 100 days of violence and destruction in our cities. The co-opting of lawful protests led to destruction of government property and have turned deadly. Indeed, Department of Homeland Security law enforcement officers suffered over 300 separate injuries and were assaulted with sledgehammers, commercial grade fireworks, rocks, metal pipes, improvised explosive devices, and more.

Domestic terrorists and violent extremists also exploited otherwise peaceful Black Lives Matter marches all over the country, turning them into insurrections characterized by arson, looting and violence against cops. Domestic terrorists and violent extremists are the insurrectionists, not Trump.

On January 6, Congress was forced to adjourn at 2:20 pm because domestic terrorists and violent extremists were ransacking the Capitol. At 2:38 pm, President Trump tweeted, “Please support our Capitol Police and Law Enforcement. They are truly on the side of our Country. Stay peaceful!”

He should have sent that tweet earlier. He did not. That makes him foolish, not an insurrectionist.

So, here we are, February 9, 2021, the first day of former President Trump’s second impeachment trial. A trial that will likely be equal in its foolishness to anything President Trump has said or done because it will be seen as an abuse of House authority, motivated by revenge and partisan politics under the leadership of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Donald Trump brings out the worst in everyone.

But nothing said or done by either President Trump or Nancy Pelosi compares to the foolishness noticed worldwide on January 8 this year, two days after the storming of the US Capitol. Go to website Trump Twitter Archive and look at the top of the page. There you will see the following:

“Twitter has permanently suspended Trump’s account (January 8, 2021)”

The most foolish of all are those who would deny any American the right to be foolish.

When all is said and done, former President Trump’s second impeachment trial will likely show that foolish demagoguery is constitutionally protected speech, not an incitement of insurrection.

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

For more information: www.johndavisconsulting.com

The US Constitution Giveth and the US Constitution Taketh Away; Blessed Be the US Constitution

February 2, 2021         Vol. XIV, No. 1       11:13 am

US Constitution requires 67 votes for conviction. Period. End of story.

Next Monday, February 8, 2021, former president Donald Trump will try to win an acquittal in the court of public opinion by arguing during his second impeachment trial that he was unfairly cheated out of a second term in the Oval Office. That the January 6 storming of the US Capitol was spontaneous, not orchestrated. That lawlessness was due to a few bad actors, unwittingly abetted by poor security planning.

If Trump succeeds in the court of public opinion, Democrats will have no chance of persuading the 17 Republican Senators needed for 67 votes required to convict him of the charge that he “engaged in high Crimes and Misdemeanors by inciting violence against the Government of the United States.”

And no matter what any of us think about the legitimacy of Trump’s defense strategy, the US Constitution says that without 67 votes to convict, he will be acquitted. Period. End of story.

In my judgment, the Trump legal team is likely to succeed in winning the argument in the court of public opinion that Trump and his supporters genuinely believed that he was cheated out of a second term; that an otherwise peaceful and officially permitted “Save America” rally and march to the US Capitol became violent only because radical, right-wing thugs assaulted and overran cops; a security breach that led to lives being lost and government leaders and staff threatened in great part because of a failure of federal and DC bureaucrats to plan for the angry crowd cautioned days earlier by the FBI.

If Trump succeeds next week, he will live to reign supreme for another day with his “Save America” PAC and a $31 million year-end 2020 cash balance reported Sunday. If Trump succeeds, Mar-a-Lago will become the center of the Republican universe and Speaker Pelosi will go down in history as the only speaker who exploited the US Constitutional impeachment authority twice … and lost both times.

But even if Pelosi and her prosecution team fail to win the Constitutionally required 67 votes to convict Trump of High Crimes and Misdemeanors, Joe Biden will still be President of the United States.

Constitution requires 270 electors for president. Period. End of story.

During the past four years, we have heard Democrats claim time and again that President Trump’s presidency was somehow illegitimate because Hillary Clinton won 2.87 million more votes in 2016. Unfortunately for the Clinton camp, the US Constitution does not account for the national popular vote.

Donald John Trump was declared winner because he won the 270 electors required by the US Constitution for a term as president of the United States (Trump 304; Clinton 227). Period. End of story.

But it was not the end of the story for many Democrats who believe to this day that the Trump Administration was illegitimately won. Democrats, like the late Rep. John Lewis from Georgia, who  refused to attend Trump’s inauguration, saying in an interview with Chuck Todd on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” “I don’t see this president-elect as a legitimate president.”

Not only did Rep. John Lewis and many like-minded House members not attend President-elect Trump’s inauguration, many also never attended a Trump State of the Union Address.

Democrats spent four years denying the legitimacy of Trump’s 2016 win. Hillary Clinton told the Washington Post on September 26, 2019, that Trump was an “illegitimate president” who “knows he stole the 2016 election.”

Exploiting a pandemic for political gain is not unconstitutional

Sound familiar? Stole the election? Cheated? Unfair? Misrepresented the truth?

How about Trump’s claim: They exploited a coronavirus pandemic to send tens of millions of absentee ballots to their voters and then used unprecedented emergency state authority to reduce validation requirements and extend the time allowed for counting ballots to gain a political advantage.

Or how about Trump’s claim: the news media withheld a scandalous story about my opponent.

In the matter of the election of a US president, the US Constitution has no interest in whether the news media tried to influence the race unfairly by withholding potentially damning stories such as the one about Joe Biden being complicit in family business deals with China while he was Vice President.

In fact, the US Constitution allows the news media to be recklessly unprofessional; allows reporters to destroy the trust of Americans by choosing sides in a presidential race and faking their objectivity. There is nothing unconstitutional about media bias in story selection or the use of loaded words intended to politically influence readers and listeners. Recklessly unprofessional? Yes, but not unconstitutional.

Likewise, the US Constitution is not interested in whether House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, purposely stalled the negotiations on the second coronavirus stimulus package to keep President Trump from a politically valuable legislative accomplishment. Nor does the US Constitution care if Pfizer and Moderna intentionally waited for political reasons, as some have suggested, until after election day to announce the availability of their COVID vaccines (Pfizer announced Nov 9; Moderna Nov 16).

Reprehensible? If true, yes. Seeking to gain a political advantage in a presidential race by delaying desperately needed stimulus money and vaccines is reprehensible, but not unconstitutional.

The bottom line is this: exploiting a national crisis by driving up the number of absentee ballots distributed and certified is not unconstitutional. Neither is exaggerating the truth nor withholding a story.

The US Constitution asks but one question after a presidential race

You can stand before the US Constitution all day arguing that President Trump’s election was stolen because of absentee ballots, biased news sources or ruthlessly partisan opposition leaders, but the US Constitution, after listening patiently, will ask you but one question: Did one of the contenders for president win a minimum majority of 270 certified Electoral College votes?

At 1:00 pm, Wednesday, January 6, 2021, the 117^th US Congress met in joint session, then-Vice President Mike Pence presiding, to count certified ballots from each state for US President and Vice President. Shortly thereafter, tens of thousands of marchers arrived at the Capitol from a Trump-led “Save America” rally to protest the count, believing, as President Trump had argued, that the election had been stolen, even though no state or federal court had ruled in their favor on allegations of fraudulent balloting.

Per a USA TODAY timeline, at a little after 1:00 pm, violent protesters in the crowd began grappling with Capitol Police in what became an hour-long struggle to breach the security barriers. By 2:00 pm, rioters had breached the severely outnumbered security officers and the perimeter fencing on the west (Mall) side of the Capitol. Thousands of marchers, most unaware of the violence, followed each other up the Capitol steps and proudly stood waving their pro-Trump banners.

At about 2:20 pm, as violence escalated inside the Capitol, Vice President Pence and Speaker Pelosi were escorted from the Senate and House chambers, abruptly ending a two-hour debate over an objection to counting Arizona’s votes, required if both a House and Senate member sign an objection.

During the next three and a half hours, we watched in shock as many “Save America” marchers morphed into violent insurrectionists. They occupied the Senate and House chambers. They destroyed property. One hit Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick on the head with a fire extinguisher so violently that Officer Brian Sicknick died the next day.

Next week, we will see the video footage of the rioting as House Democratic Impeachment Managers make their case that former president Donald Trump should be found guilty of intentionally inciting the insurrection of January 6, 2021. That he should never be allowed to hold office again.

But this week, I want to emphasize what happened after the Capitol was finally secure at 5:49 pm.

At 8:06 pm, the Senate reconvened to continue the debate over an objection to counting Arizona’s electoral votes. Following the two-hour debate, the objection failed by a vote of 93-6.

At 9:00 pm, the House reconvened to continue the debate over an objection to counting Arizona’s electoral votes. Following the two-hour debate, the objection failed by a vote of 303-121.

At 12:15 am, another objection was raised by a House and Senate Republican to the counting of the Pennsylvania votes, leading to two more hours of debate. The objection was rejected at 3:10 am.

At 3:41 am, Vice President Mike Pence affirmed that Congress had completed the counting of the electoral votes and that former Vice President Joe Biden had won the presidency, 306-232.

Four years earlier, on January 6, 2017, it was then-Vice President Joe Biden who presided over the certification of Donald Trump as the winner of the Electoral College votes. There were many objections initiated by angry Democratic House members over claims like Russian collusion, voting machine malfunctions and voter suppression. But Biden refused to grant House Democrats two hours to debate because they failed to qualify their objections with a cosigning Senator as required by law.

Then, as in the wee hours of the morning on January 7, 2021, and in every presidential election since General George Washington was elected by a unanimous vote of electors on February 4, 1789, the US Constitution decides who would receive the keys to the Oval Office.

The US Constitution giveth and the US Constitution taketh away; blessed be the US Constitution.

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

December 16, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 12       4:13 pm

Grace in defeat is not in the DNA of most partisans

It was an especially contentious presidential race. Two parties starkly divided using their corps of politically biased news reporters to advance personal attacks and argue that they were the only true protector of American virtues. One party favoring strong, centralized federal rule and higher taxes; the other preferring a decentralized federal government and lower taxes.

Two presidential contenders. The incumbent President of the United States challenged by a seasoned pro who had run for president before and whose resume included serving as Vice President.

A bitter campaign of personal attacks. One declaring that his opponent was “weak, confused.” The other calling his opponent “obstinate, excessively vain, and takes no counsel from anyone.”

It was a rancorous and vengeful campaign during which both sides exploited every advantage possible, including changing election laws “to ensure a desired result.”

Of course, I am talking about the presidential race of 1800 in which incumbent President John Adams was denied a second term by Vice President Thomas Jefferson. A campaign of personal attacks so ruthless that at 4 o’clock in the morning on Jefferson’s inauguration day “the sullen Adams slipped out of the Executive Mansion without fanfare, boarded a public stage and left Washington.”

As David McCullough wrote in his Pulitzer Prize winning biography John Adams, “Adams could have set an example of grace in defeat, while at the same time paying homage to a system whereby power, according to a written constitution, is transferred peacefully. After so vicious a contest for the highest office, with party hatred so near to igniting in violence, a peaceful transfer of power seemed little short of a miracle. If ever a system has proven to work under extremely adverse circumstances, it was at this inauguration of 1801, and it is regrettable that Adams was not present.”

This is what I expect we will see on January 20, 2021, at President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration. President Donald Trump, like President John Adams, so humiliated in defeat that regrettably he will not be capable of celebrating Biden’s victory. Grace in defeat is not in Donald Trump’s DNA.

But grace in defeat is not in the DNA of most partisans. Do you think Democrats in Washington DC have set the example for grace in defeat during the past four years? I didn’t think so. Do you expect Republicans to set the example for grace in defeat during the next four years? I didn’t think so.

Trump would have won but for Sept/Oct Spike in Coronavirus

Now get this: In every presidential race since 1952, Gallup polls have shown that the candidate of the party seen better able to handle the most important problems of the day is the candidate who won. Look at the list and you will see that the rule applies 100% of the time since President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Exceptions: In 1980 and 2000, voters were tied on which party was better able.

The most important problem on the mind of voters in 2020 from the start of early voting (as early as September 18 in some states) through Election Day was the coronavirus. President Trump’s job approval on his handling of the coronavirus was a dismal 40%, with 57% disapproval.

But far more important is this: Per Gallup, in the Fall of 2020, “More Americans believe the Democratic Party (47%) than the Republican Party (39%) would do a better job of handling whatever issue they consider to be the most important problem facing the U.S.

What issue did most Americans say was most important 2020 problem? The coronavirus.

Boom. The Trump presidency doomed by his handling of the coronavirus. From my view, Trump should have shown more concern for the sick and more empathy for those grieving the loss of a loved one. And, he should have turned the daily coronavirus briefings over to the medical professionals.

However, despite his personal and presidential failings, President Trump would have most certainly won a second term but for the coronavirus. The economy was poised for growth and unemployment was at a 50-year low, yielding across-the-board wage increases due to a worker shortage.

According to Real Clear Politics, President Trump’s job approval on his handling of the economy during the first quarter of 2020 was 53.4%, with only 41.4% rating him unfavorably. Despite all negatives, Trump’s job approval on his handling of the economy remained at 53% all year. If economic recovery had been the most important problem for voters Trump would have won.

“A little short of a miracle” in a season of miracles

This was a year we will never forget. A year that began contentiously with the all-partisan Impeachment Trial of President Trump. Then, the dreadful coronavirus struck, taking over 300,000 moms and dads and grandparents and healthcare workers and friends and coworkers from us. A virus that has disrupted our personal and professional lives like no other event in our lifetimes.

The virus created an economic crisis, much worse for some. Businesses and organizations of all sizes, from major airlines to family-owned restaurants were forced to accept the bankrupting consequences of pandemic shutdowns. Tens of millions of unemployed renters could not pay rent or utilities and homeowners could not pay mortgages. Many were food insecure for the first time.

 This was a year of a cultural crisis. A year in which the killing of a Black man named George Floyd by a rogue cop sparked violent protests. Peaceful Black Lives Matter protests ultimately discredited by arsonists and looters and chants of “defund the police.” Protests so threatening that they turned what was to be a national blue, Democratic wave into a political ripple that left Republicans in charge of most state capitols and Democrats facing political setbacks on Capitol Hill.

This was the year in which we lost the liberal lioness of the US Supreme Court, the “notorious RBG,” Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and saw the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett, transforming the nation’s high court to a solid 6-3 conservative majority.

Finally, this was a year of a particularly vicious contest for the nation’s highest office, with party hatred seemingly ever near to igniting in violence. A contest that ended on Monday, December 14, 2020, when the Electoral College gave President-elect Joe Biden 306 votes with only 270 needed to win.

Now, with the elections behind us and hope on the horizon for an end to the coronavirus, we end 2020 appropriately in the season of miracles. The month people of many religious traditions throughout the world celebrate the miracles of their faith.

The fact that people from all faiths and ancestral stories and cultural values coexist peacefully in the United States of America despite our rancorous politics is truly a “little short of a miracle,” one that can be traced to a Constitution crafted by founders like Thomas Jefferson and John Adams that gives each citizen the right to consent to how they are governed by way of voting for their leaders.

It will be regrettable if President Donald Trump is not present at President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration if only to honor a constitutional system that has proven to work under the extremely adverse circumstances like the presidential campaigns of 1800 and 2020.

It will be even more regrettable if all of us are not there, at least in spirit, including those walking wounded after President Trump’s defeat. It’s over. It’s time for all of us to stand witness to the peaceful transfer of power, a “little short of a miracle” in a season of miracles.

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

Happy Holidays!

John N. Davis

November 3, 2020 Election Results for US and NC Races

November 4, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 12       3:13 pm

Trump wins North Carolina; 74.56% turnout!

Trump wins North Carolina. As of today, a total of 5,487,252 North Carolina ballots have been cast in the 2020 General Election, a record turnout of 74.56%. And, as of this writing, President Donald Trump is carrying North Carolina with 2,732,084 to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 2,655,383.  

As to whether Trump or Biden will be president during the next four years, we will have to wait a couple weeks due to likely recounts and litigation. NOTE: In the event of a tie in the Electoral College or with no one receiving the required 270 votes, each US house delegation will cast one vote on behalf of their state. In that event, North Carolina’s one vote would go to President Trump with an 8 to 5 vote of the newly elected congressional delegation.

Meanwhile, the President’s charge of fraud during his 2 o’clock am statement at the White House this morning is the latest example of why he alone is the master of his fate. Many voters, especially white women in the suburbs who abandoned Trump after voting for him in 2016, are tired of his chaotic and insulting style of leadership.

If Trump loses, he will have no one to blame but himself.

The same can be said for Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who did not defeat a single Republican Member of Congress in her failed attempt to expand the Democratic majority yesterday. Four years of Democratic House vendetta-driven fiascos like the Russian collusion investigation, the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, and the impeachment hearings were seen by many Americans as an abuse of power for partisan political gain.

Pelosi has no one to blame but herself if she is not reelected by her caucus as speaker.

Meanwhile, the good news for the economy and public policy is that we are still a divided government at the state and federal levels. That means no one can run over the other with extremist initiatives, left or right. It means that bipartisan consensus is the ONLY pathway to progress on all the important issues of the day from a new stimulus bill to infrastructure spending and healthcare reform.

Every faction is checked by one or another of the branches of government at all levels. To get some of what you want, you will have to give your partisan opponents some of what they want.

Most importantly, all political leaders are accountable to the voters, who made it abundantly clear yesterday that no matter how much money you have or how much power you wield, they will decide who stays and who goes. The US Senate is likely to stay in the hands of Republicans.

US Senate 51-49 GOP IF MI and GA GOP hold leads; Tillis wins

• Democrats had a bad night in US Senate races, despite a spending advantage of a couple of billion dollars, as the US Senate appears to be more likely on track to stay in the hands of Republicans. As expected, Republicans Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona and Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado lost their races, and Democrat Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama (Sen. Jeff Sessions seat) lost to former Auburn football coach Tommy Turberville.
• One of the biggest surprises of the night was the reelection of Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. It is estimated that over $100 million was spent against Collins by liberal groups who turned against her for being the decisive vote confirming Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Other Republicans who were considered vulnerable but who were elected include Cornyn in Texas, Ernst in Iowa, Graham in South Carolina, Marshall in Kansas, and Daines in Montana.
• Ballots are still being counted in Michigan (Democratic Gary Peters is behind GOP challenger John James at 1:32 pm) and in Georgia, where GOP Sen. David Perdue is ahead by over 150,000 votes at 1:32 pm. There will be a January runoff in Georgia between GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock because neither candidate received the required 50% of the total votes.
• Note: If GOP challenger John James holds his lead in Michigan and Georgia Sen. David Perdue holds his lead, then the Senate becomes 51-49 Republican.
• $239 million spent on Tillis-Cunningham race. Republican North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis has won a second term over Democrat Cal Cunningham, embattled by his sexting scandal, in the most expensive US Senate race in 2020. As of this writing, Tillis has 2,640,381 votes to Cunningham’s 2,543,692 votes (at 1:27 pm today).
• Outside groups alone spent $85 million attacking Tillis. Thanks to the backing of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Tillis-backed outside groups spent $90 million attacking Cal Cunningham. If you add the amounts spent by the candidates (Tillis spent $18 million; Cunningham spent $46 million) and outside groups, a whopping $239 million was spent in North Carolina on the Tillis-Cunningham race.
• NOTE: Thom Tillis defeated Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014 in the nation’s most expensive US Senate race that year. Total 2014 spending in the Tillis-Hagan race was $120 million, half of 2020 total.

US House Democratic “dumpster fire;” Speaker Pelosi is history

• The US House will stay in the hands of Democrats, although with a smaller 227-208 majority (currently Democrats have a 233-201 majority; 1 Indep). Notably, not one single Republican incumbent was defeated by the Democrats in what was supposed to be a night of expanding their majority. “It’s a dumpster fire,” said one Democrat … anonymously.
• The net loss for House Democrats is attributable to Speaker Pelosi’s misjudgments from the hyperpartisan impeachment hearings to her failure to negotiate a second stimulus bill this fall. With Speaker Pelosi’s Real Clear Politics “Favorable” score at a dismal 36.6% (Unfavorable 54%), and the overall Congressional job approval at an even more dismal 18% (72% disapprove), her quest to continue as speaker is doomed.
• While Pelosi is likely out as Speaker, GOP House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will likely be reelected to head the GOP Caucus.
• As expected, North Carolina’s US House delegation will total 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats:

Republicans: US House 3 Rep. Greg Murphy, US House 5 Rep. Virginia Foxx, US House 7 Rep. David Rouzer, US House 8 Rep. Richard Hudson, US House 9 Rep. Dan Bishop, US House 10 Rep. Patrick McHenry, US House 11 Madison Cawthorn (new), and US House 13 Rep. Ted Budd.

Democrats: US House 1 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, US House 2 Deborah Ross (new), US House 4 Rep. David Price, US House 6 Kathy Manning (new) and US House 12 Rep. Elma Adams.

North Carolina Governor & Council of State

• Governor Roy Cooper defeated GOP challenger Lt. Gov. Dan Forest by 2,803,782 to 2,563,258.
• Council of State. Although Gov. Cooper will be joined on the Council of State by Democrats Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Auditor Beth Wood and Attorney General Josh Stein, he will have to contend with a Republican majority State Senate and House and six Republicans on the Council of State, three incumbents and three newcomers.
• Council of State incumbent Republicans winning another term include Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, Treasurer Dale Folwell, and Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey. Republican newcomers on the Council of State include GOP candidate for Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, Republican Josh Dobson who won the Labor Commissioner’s race, and Catherine Truitt, GOP winner for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican Majority North Carolina General Assembly

• Republicans won the majorities in both the State Senate (29-21) and House (68-52), thanks to their ongoing advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates despite years of legal wrangling by Democrats.

• Holding the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly means Republicans will control the committees that draw the legislative and congressional district maps used for the remainder of the decade. Thanks to population growth, North Carolina’s new federal map will include one new congressional district (from 13 to 14), which will certainly be drawn to favor the election of a Republican.

• NOTE: NC Governor cannot veto redistricting bills. In 1996, North Carolina became the last state in the nation to give its governor veto power. However, to get the bill passed, then-Gov. Jim Hunt begrudgingly agreed to one major exception: governors have no veto power over redistricting and local bills. Read a one-page history of the wheeling and dealing to give North Carolina’s governor veto power here, as written by Hunt consultant Gary Pearce.

Republicans win all 8 Appellate Judiciary Races

• As of this writing, all of North Carolina Supreme Court (3) and Court of Appeals (5) races have been won by the Republican candidate. Per my forecast, appellate judiciary races went to “the party that wins the presidential contest.” We live in a time of hyper-partisanship. There is little ticket-splitting when all that voters know about the candidate is their party affiliation.
• The race for Chief Justice is razor-thin, with Republican Justice Paul Newby at 2,670,773 to 2,667,031 Democratic Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (at 1:50 pm). There are well more than enough outstanding mailed ballots that could flip the results of this race to Beasley between now and the final day for counting North Carolina absentee ballots, November 12.
• However, the other seven appellate judiciary races won by GOP candidates are likely decided.

When the final ballots are tabulated and the races are certified, all of us will have won some races and will be disappointed by the outcome of others. But the most important thing we must now resolved to do is to accept the results and vow to start fresh with a renewed commitment to finding ways to forge bipartisan alliances to improve the greater good. That will only happen if we, the voters, demand it of our newly elected leaders.

As I said last week, it is time to end the partisan estrangement. It is poisoning our society. Everyone has a personal story about the formation of their political judgment, the judgment they use to make their political decisions in the voting booth. If we knew each other’s stories, we would understand why we voted the way we voted this fall. If we knew each other’s stories we would not be as likely to question each other’s motives or political choices.

It is time to have a cup of coffee with someone who voted differently from you. Not to talk about politics or public policy, but to share your stories of the formation of your political judgment.

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Final Forecasts for US and NC Races Based on Late Events That Expose Partisan Strengths and Weaknesses

October 29, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 11       9:13 am

Political malfeasance in front of 63 million voters

October 22, 2020, 10:22 pm. If the Trump-Biden presidential debate last Thursday night had ended at 10:22 pm, the moment Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden glanced down at his watch to check the time, he may still be in the running in battleground states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Regrettably, for Biden and his supporters, the debate did not end until after he was pressed by President Trump with the question, “Would you close down the oil industry?” to which Joe Biden answered, “I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” adding, “the oil industry pollutes, significantly.” 

Snap. Just like that, states where American families depend on oil industry jobs, like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, moved into the column of those President Trump is now likely to win.

Biden hemorrhaging votes on left and right over oil. Joe Biden was already in trouble with Bernie Sanders and the Green New Deal Democrats over his flipflopping on banning hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Now, he is in trouble with the over-10 million workers who are proud to have helped make the United States energy independent as the world’s #1 producer of oil and natural gas.

Timing is everything in politics. Announcing during an economic crisis to 63 million people watching the debate that you are going to close down an industry that, per PricewaterhouseCoopers, contributes $1.3 trillion to the US economy along with 10.3 million jobs, is political malfeasance.

That one event may cost Biden the presidency and hurt NC down-ballot Democrats on Tuesday.

Anger has rotted the foundation of the Democratic Party

“Cowards” and “Spineless enablers.” There she goes again. Hillary Clinton, in a New York Times podcast released Monday, called Republicans who support President Trump “cowards” and “spineless enablers.” In 2016, she called Donald Trump supporters “a basket of deplorables.”

My wife and I are fortunate to have a large family and an extended family of lifelong friends. Many of our friends and family members are supporting former Vice President Joe Biden in the presidential race and many are supporting President Trump. Those who are voting for Trump are not “cowards” or “spineless enablers” of the president. They are simply life-long Republicans.

However, because of angry Democrats like Hillary Clinton, most of our Trump friends would not dare put a sign in their yard or a bumper sticker on their car. They have clammed up. They are among the silent voters of 2020 who also would not tell a stranger conducting a poll that they are for Trump.

That is why I believe the polls are off this year, by two to three points, on Trump’s support.

There is no greater threat to Democrats than their four-year inability to accept the legitimacy of the Trump victory in 2016. It has meant four years of Democrats echoing Hillary Clinton in calling President Trump supporters “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic.”

Four years of vendetta-driven political fiascos. The Russian collusion investigation, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, the impeachment hearings and trial of President Trump, the “Cancel Culture” fiasco (think political correctness on steroids or “you’re a racist if you disagree with me”), and most recently, the “Defund the Police” while I loot and burn your business fiasco.

Anger has rotted the Democratic party’s foundation and created an environment so hostile that no Trump supporter, especially in Democrat-friendly urban areas, would dare tell a pollster the truth.

Enthusiasm trumps money in voter turnout

Anemic Biden rallies vs. MAGA enthusiasm. Anemic turnout for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (and former President Barack Obama) at their political rallies is another late event that has me concluding that the campaign is in a tailspin and will likely lose next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, President Trump is speaking to tens-of-thousands of enthusiastic supporters day after day, many of whom wait all day, some in the cold rain under their MAGA hats, all just to see him arrive on Air Force One. He speaks for an hour and a half and the excitement at the conclusion is just as palpable as when he arrived at the podium.

Enthusiasm trumps money in turnout. An enthusiasm advantage has always meant a turnout advantage. Add the Trump enthusiasm to a GOP four-year, door-to-door ground game aimed at registering new Trump voters and fine-tuning turnout operations and you can readily see the potential for surprise upsets next Tuesday favoring Republicans in close races.

Per a report earlier this month by David Wasserman, Cook Political Report, of the six states Trump won by less than 5 points in 2016, four — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — voter registration trends are more robust for the GOP. “If the race tightens,” writes Wasserman, “or there’s a substantial polling error, Trump’s superior base growth could make a difference in a few tight states — and call into question why the Biden campaign chose to forgo hitting the streets.”

Yes, Democrats have the most money by far, federal and state races. The latest campaign finance reports, per OpenSecrets.org, show the Biden campaign raising a record-breaking $938 million through October 14, with President Trump’s campaign reporting $596 million, or only 61% of Biden’s haul. Here is the context: In 2016, Donald Trump raised only 58% of Hillary Clinton’s total (Trump $564 million; Clinton $973 million) and beat her soundly in the Electoral College.

US Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. And finally, there is no greater proof of Trump’s ability to shake up the federal swamp than his appointment of over-200 federal judges and three justices on the United States Supreme Court, now 6-to-3 conservative thanks to this week’s newcomer, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a working mom with seven kids. Who knows, the Barrett appointment may even inspire a few votes for Trump from those illusive suburban white women who otherwise wouldn’t dare vote for him.

Federal Races: Likely Winners

• Trump will win a second term and carry North Carolina. Other battleground states likely to vote for Trump include Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Texas, and Arizona, giving Trump 278 electoral college votes (270 needed to win).
• The US Senate will stay in the hands of Republicans, likely 51-49, despite their loss of Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, and Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado. Former Auburn football coach Tommy Turberville will defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama (Sen. Jeff Sessions seat). Also, look for a surprise upset in Michigan where GOP challenger John James is giving Democratic US Sen. Gary Peters fits. A James win would give the GOP a 52-48 seat majority.
• Republican North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis will win a second term over Democrat Cal Cunningham, who will lose support even among Democrats over matters of sexual misconduct.
• The US House will stay in the hands of Democrats who will suffer a net loss after more Americans blame Congressional Democrats (41%) than Congressional Republicans (25%) or Pres. Trump (19%) for the failure of Congress to pass a coronavirus stimulus bill, according to poll results released Wednesday morning by Politico/Morning Consult.
• Speaker Pelosi’s misjudgments from the partisan impeachment hearings to the latest stimulus bill doom her quest to continue as speaker. Pelosi’s Real Clear Politics “Favorable” score is 36.6% (Unfavorable 54%), below Pres. Trump’s 42% “Favorable” score (Unfavorable 54.8%).
• The North Carolina US House delegation will total 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats:

Republicans: US House 3 Rep. Greg Murphy, US House 5 Rep. Virginia Foxx, US House 7 Rep. David Rouzer, US House 8 Rep. Richard Hudson, US House 9 Rep. Dan Bishop, US House 10 Rep. Patrick McHenry, US House 11 Madison Cawthorn (new), and US House 13 Rep. Ted Budd.

Democrats: US House 1 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, US House 2 Deborah Ross (new), US House 4 Rep. David Price, US House 6 Kathy Manning (new) and US House 12 Rep. Elma Adams.

• NOTE: In the event of a tie in the Electoral College or with no one receiving the required 270 votes, each US house delegation will cast one vote on behalf of their state. In that event, North Carolina’s vote would go to Pres. Trump with an 8 to 5 vote of the delegation listed above.

State Races: Likely Winners

• Governor: The biggest surprise upset next week will be the defeat of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper by Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. Per Gallup, North Carolina is the 8^th most “Very Religious” state. Forest has been a champion of religious conservatives on issues opposed by Gov. Cooper from school choice to pro-life, and no group is more exhilarated over new US Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett than religious conservatives. They will turn out in record numbers statewide.

Forest has also been an advocate of managing the coronavirus while opening the state when Gov. Cooper has insisted that the state remain closed, which is to say to business, education, religious leaders and those who need to get back to work that they cannot be trusted to manage reopening.

• Council of State likely winners include incumbent Democrats Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Auditor Beth Wood and Attorney General Josh Stein, along with incumbent Republicans Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and Treasurer Dale Folwell.
• Newcomers favored to win positions on the Council of State include Republican candidate for Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, along with Republican Josh Dobson, candidate for Labor Commissioner, and Catherine Truitt, GOP nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
• The race for Insurance Commissioner has been a Toss-Up all year between incumbent Republican Mike Causey and former Democratic Commissioner Wayne Goodwin, although a Trump/Tillis/Forest trifecta would give the odds to Causey.
• The North Carolina General Assembly is likely to stay in the hands of Republicans, thanks to their ongoing advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates. According to Michael Bitzer with Catawba College, one of the state’s leading experts on the partisan leanings of congressional and legislative districts, Republicans enjoy a 27-to-19 advantage in the number of state Senate seats that favor one party or the other. They need 26 wins to hold the majority. On the North Carolina House side, Bitzer’s analysis shows a 69-to-47 seat advantage in the number of seats that favor one party or the other, with 61 wins needed to hold the majority.
• North Carolina appellate judiciary races for seats on the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals will likely go to the party that wins the presidential contest. We live in a time of hyper-partisanship. There will be little ticket-splitting in races where the only thing voters know about the candidates is their party affiliation.

All three branches of government at the federal and state levels are up for grabs next Tuesday. By the end of the day, the races will be over. When the dust settles, each of us will win some races and be disappointed by the outcome of others. But the most important thing we must do next week is to accept the final results and vow to start fresh with a renewed commitment to finding ways to forge bipartisan alliances to improve the greater good.

It is time to end the partisan estrangement. It is poisoning our society. Everyone has a personal story about the formation of their political judgment, the judgment they use to make their political decisions in the voting booth. If we knew each other’s stories, we would understand why we vote the way we vote. We would not likely question other voters’ motives or feel contempt for their political preferences.

It’s time to have a cup of coffee with someone who voted differently from you. Not to talk about politics or public policy, but to share your stories of the formation of your political judgment.

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

How Democrats Squandered the Political Authority to Select Justice Ginsburg’s Supreme Court Successor

September 27, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 10       10:13 am

Ginsburg First Woman & Jewish American to Lie in State at US Capitol

On Friday morning, September 25, 2020, US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg became the first woman and first Jewish American to lie in state in the US Capitol. A well-earned distinction. I cannot think of anyone in my lifetime that I have grown to admire more than the Notorious RBG.

Justice Ginsburg’s wish was that her replacement be selected by the winner of the presidential race in November, surely with hopes that the winner would be the Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden. Afterall, she was the lioness of the left wing of the Court.

Unfortunately, DC Democrats have squandered the political authority to pick Ginsburg’s replacement due to four years of vendetta-driven political fiascos over the loss of the White House to Donald Trump. Those fiascos include the Russian collusion investigation, the confirmation hearings of President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the impeachment hearings and trial of President Trump, the Cancel Culture (“you’re a racist if you disagree with me”) fiasco, and, most recently, the “Defund the Police” while I loot and burn your business fiasco.

The authority and honor to select Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s successor will instead go to President Trump and the Republican majority members in the US Senate who have already secured the 51 votes needed to confirm the nominee.

President Trump announced his nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, a judge on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, on Saturday, in the White House Rose Garden. Barrett, a former law professor at Notre Dame, is the mother of seven children, two adopted from Haiti, and a devout Catholic.

Trump and Tillis now likely to win with Barrett as running mate

Politically, the confirmation hearings on Judge Barrett will be a boon for President Trump and Republicans in toss-up races like Sen. Thom Tillis, R-NC. It shifts the attention of voters away from the coronavirus, which is good politically for Trump, and gives Tillis, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, an opportunity to prove his conservative bona fides to Republicans in North Carolina, ranked the 8^th most “Very Religious” state by Gallup’s State of the States national study.

Judge Barrett, a working mom, will essentially be a running mate for both Trump and Tillis, which will likely increase their support from undecided suburban white women and increase turnout of faith-based voters. Barrett’s personal commitment to her young family and to her Catholic faith will endear her to Hispanic and Black voters, already showing up in polls as likely to vote for President Trump in record numbers over issues like school choice and economic opportunity zones.

Barrett’s confirmation will likely sail through the Senate before election day. That is because Senate Democrats cannot risk another confirmation fiasco like the Brett Kavanaugh hearings two years ago, a bungled character assassination attempt that contributed to the loss of four Democratic Senators in 2018.

Kavanaugh Hearings Political Fiasco

In September 2018, the US Senate Judiciary Committee began the confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s nominee to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy. For weeks, Democrats tried but failed to discredit Kavanaugh’s three-decade legal career, including his 12-year record on the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, a record that included the fact that Chief Judge Merrick Garland, the judge President Obama wanted to appoint to the Supreme Court, joined in 96% of the majority opinions authored by Judge Kavanaugh.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, while speaking at George Washington University Law School on September 12, 2018, referred to the Kavanaugh hearings as a “highly partisan show.” Ginsburg then added, “The way it was, was right. The way it is, is wrong.”

In saying, “The way it was, was right,” Ginsburg was referring to the unanimous bipartisan confirmation of her friend Justice Antonin Scalia in 1986 and her near-unanimous confirmation in 1993.

In 1993, Ruth Bader Ginsburg received a bipartisan 96-3 vote in the U.S. Senate on her confirmation as a Supreme Court justice. Forty (40) of 43 Republican Senators voted for Ginsburg’s confirmation, despite her 10 years with the liberal stronghold ACLU (American Civil Liberties Union).

Even North Carolina’s newly elected conservative Republican Senator Lauch Faircloth voted for Ginsburg. (Sen. Jesse Helms, R-NC, was one of the three Republicans who voted against Ginsburg.)

As for the Kavanaugh hearing, bipartisan civility ended before the first witness was sworn in.

After failing to discredit Kavanaugh on his career or his view of the Constitution, Senate Democrats decided to destroy Kavanaugh’s character by revealing a letter from a teenage friend who said he groped her at a party during high school. She named four witnesses. Not one corroborated her story. No one at the party, including a life-long friend, recalled anything about the party.

The moment Senate Democrats abandoned the time-honored right of the accused to a presumption of innocence and insisted that we should “believe the woman” accuser without evidence or corroboration, the Kavanaugh hearings became a political fiasco with disastrous consequences.

Four Senate Democrats who voted against Kavanaugh lost their campaigns for reelection in 2018: Senators Heidi Heitkamp, D-ND, Joe Donnelly, D-IN, Claire McCaskill, D-MO, and Bill Nelson, D-FL. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-WV, the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh, won his race.

Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation will likely sail through the Senate before election day, giving President Trump and Sen. Thom Tillis the political boost they need to win on November 3, all because DC Democrats squandered their political authority.

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Virtual or On-Site Speech: For in a virtual or on-site political presentation for your upcoming meetings, check my availability here www.johndavisconsulting.com/speech-request/ for a 45-minute presentation on 2020 likely winners, federal and state races.

September 7, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 9       3:13 pm

Labor Day Forecast: Trump & GOP US Senate; Democratic US House

President Trump is likely to win a second term due to Democratic Party ideological disunity and a crumbling infrastructure of aging DC Democratic establishment leaders. Meanwhile, the Republican Party, who jettisoned their establishment baggage in 2016, is more united and enthusiastic over the prospects of another four years in the White House and a solidly conservative US Supreme Court.

Republican turnout in rural America, small towns and the outer suburbs will be solid, thanks to the radical left agenda along with the violent rioting which resulted in destruction of downtown businesses and anti-police anarchy not seen since 1968. That was the year Republican nominee Richard Nixon won the White House on the issue of law and order.

The enthusiastic Trump base voters, along with law-and-order independent voters, will be joined by new allies among Blacks and Hispanics thanks to issues relating to religious freedom and school choice, giving President Trump the advantage in swing states and his election to a second term.

Democrats will hold the US House in 2020 but will lose seats in once Republican-held districts in suburbs that elected Democrats for the first time in 2018. The net loss of seats in the US House will lead Speaker Nancy Pelosi to announce that she will not seek reelection as House leader, a welcomed relief for most members of the House Democratic Caucus who realize it’s time for the next generation to direct the party’s legislative and political agenda.

If the US Senate remains in the hands of a Republican majority, Sen. Chuck Schumer will likely step aside to allow for a new generation of Senate Democratic Caucus leaders to be elected.

Democrats Recover with US Senate in 2022 and White House in 2024

Two years from now, Democrats will likely win the US Senate majority and will likely win the White House in 2024. This forecast is based on the likelihood that President Trump and DC Republicans will push policy decisions too far right for the soon-to-be-the-majority younger generations of voters, who are decidedly progressive. It is after the elections of 2024 that you will see the dramatic shift in governmental priorities to revolutionary social justice, economic and environmental reforms.

However, the era of Democratic control of both the White House and the Congress beginning in 2025 will be checked by the US Supreme Court, which will have a 6-3 conservative bloc, maybe even a 7-2 conservative bloc, thanks to the reelection of Trump and a GOP US Senate majority in 2020.

Why Joe Biden will not likely inspire high turnout

Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee for president, is not the radical revolutionary leader young progressive Democrats so desperately hoped for in the 2020 race for the presidency. To win a revolution, young, progressive Democrats know they need a genuine ideological purist who, like them, would rather fight for what is right than win.

Biden is a dealmaker and bipartisan compromiser, not a revolutionary leader. Young Democratic voters will never be enthusiastic about Joe Biden. They did not turn out for Hillary Clinton in 2016 for the same reason and are not likely to turn out for the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020.

Joe Biden is a member of the DC Democratic party establishment that includes all the out-of-touch oldtimers like the Clintons, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Leader Chuck Schumer; an establishment that is standing in the way of a new generation of Democratic leaders with new ideas for the future.

DC Democrats are the crumbling infrastructure of a party divided between the aging, entitled establishment — with all the power and money — and the rising revolutionary wing of young Democrats waging a policy revolution on social justice, economic justice and climate change.

Well-intentioned young liberals will face a setback this year because of a voter backlash against the disruptive distractions of lawlessness in our nation’s largest cities and the disruptive attempt to cancel the culture of most Americans by tearing down statues and monuments.

President Trump is likely to win a second term in the Oval Office, the US Senate will likely stay in the hands of Republicans and the Democratic majority in the US House will weaken all due to disunity in the Democratic Party between the crumbling DC establishment and the disruptive radical left.

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Smoking Gun in FBI Corruption Probe and Crime Wave in Democrat-Led Cities Give Trump Opening to Victory

August 17, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 8 2:13 pm

Corrupt FBI spying the “doomsday scenario of abuse of power”

The last thing Democrats need on the eve of their national convention is a smoking gun in the investigation of corrupt FBI spying on the Trump campaign in 2016. But that’s what happened last Friday when former Obama-Biden Administration FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith said he will plead guilty to altering FISA documents that led to spying on Trump campaign advisor Carter Page.

The one-two political punch of corrupt spying by the Obama-Biden FBI and the ongoing crime wave in Democrat-led cities is a clear opening for President Trump to win a second term.

As I cautioned in my last report, you should never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening like an indictment in the Russian collusion probe. As expected, President Trump didn’t waste a minute in calling a White House news conference, leading with the Clinesmith guilty plea story.

“Kevin Clinesmith, a corrupt FBI attorney who falsified FISA warrants in James Comey’s very corrupt FBI is expected to plead guilty,” said President Trump in the White House press briefing room. “That’s just the beginning, I imagine,” Trump speculated. “The fact is they spied on my campaign and got caught,” he concluded. You will hear those statements over and over between now and election day.

So, just how bad is Clinesmith’s admission politically? How about, “The doomsday scenario of the abuse of government power.” That’s how AG William Barr characterized the corruption associated with the Obama-Biden Administration’s investigation of Trump campaign collusion with Russia during an August 8 interview with Mark Levin, host of Life, Liberty & Levin on Fox News.

Barr went on to define the “doomsday scenario of governmental abuse” as when “the party in power uses the police and intelligence services to tilt the field against their political opponents.”

That’s really bad … politically. And then there’s the crime spree in Democrat-led cities.

Nightly News of Crime in Democrat-Led Cities Speaks Louder than Words

This week, beginning at 8 pm tonight through Thursday, dozens of speeches at the Democratic National Convention will focus on making the case for a Biden-Harris presidency, arguing what Democrats see as the many failures of the Trump Administration. Unfortunately for Democrats, video tape shown during nightly news broadcasts of violent rioters in Democrat-led cities where looting and destruction of downtown businesses takes place night after night will speak louder than what they say.

Today’s USA Today carries a story about violence over the weekend titled, Riot declared, dozens arrested and officers injured in Portland, Seattle, Chicago protests. The article tells about violence last night in Seattle, where three police officers were injured “as a result of a riot in Seattle involving explosives, bottles and rocks.” Seattle, where the first Black woman to serve as Police Chief resigned after the City Council cut $4 million from the police department budget; likely a loss of 100 officers.

The USA Today story told of an overnight riot Saturday in Portland, where “softball size” rocks, glass bottles and other objects where thrown at police, sending two officers to the hospital. Portland has seen 70 straight days of rioting including burning the police precinct. A city held hostage.

And then there’s Chicago, where rioting over the weekend led to 17 police officers injured. Chicago, where, per a Wall Street Journal analysis of crime statistics in the nation’s largest cities, 2,240 people were shot from January 1 – July 31 this year. Chicago, home to 440 homicides during the same time period, including several children who were accidentally shot and killed this year.

Homicides totaled 3,612 this year in the 50 biggest US cities, a 24% increase over last year. Most of those cites are run by Democrats.

Democratic-led cities like New York City, where, per the New York Times, “Through the first seven months of this year, shootings were up 72 percent (72%) over the same period last year and murders rose 30 percent (30%).” Philadelphia, on track to see homicide rates not seen since 2007.

Unfortunately, the Biden-Harris Democratic presidential ticket is going to have to defend both the rioting, arson, and looting associated with the Black Lives Matter protests, and the crime wave in Democrat-led big cities where children are being shot while protesters shout “Defund the Police.”
If the Biden-Harris ticket is going to make their campaign about Trump’s White House failures, they also have to be able to defend allegations of abuse of power by the Obama-Biden White House. The Obama-Biden Justice Department’s role in falsifying FBI documents.

Thanks to last Friday’s admission by a former Obama Administration FBI lawyer that he helped rig FISA warrant documents that led to illegal spying on the Trump campaign, along with the raging crime wave in Democrat-led cities all across America, President Trump is given the biggest opening yet for a one-two knockout counterpunch in his fight for another term in the Oval Office.

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John N. Davis