Political Fortunes Will Shift as Voter Priorities Change to the Economy, Government Leadership and Diversity August 5, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 7 7:13 am Coronavirus likely to fade as most important voter priority During the next three months leading up to Election Day, November 3, 2020, the coronavirus will likely fade as the most important [More…]
Political Fortunes Will Shift as Voter Priorities Change to the Economy, Government Leadership and Diversity
August 5, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 7 7:13 am
Coronavirus likely to fade as most important voter priority
During the next three months leading up to Election Day, November 3, 2020, the coronavirus will likely fade as the most important problem facing the nation, giving way to concerns about the economy, government leadership, and diversity. Shifting political priorities means a shift in political fortunes.
On the coronavirus: Intense public anxiety, worldwide, over COVID-19 has set off frenzied public funding to provide vaccine manufacturers with everything money can buy for their round-the-clock race to end the pandemic. The political pressure on politicians to solve the problem now, as in right now, is too great and the financial bonanza for pharmaceutical companies too enticing to wait a second longer.
As to whether there is reason to be optimistic that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available sooner rather than later, the always-cautious Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the US House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus on Friday that by “late fall and early winter, we will have in fact a vaccine that we can say will be safe and effective.”
Political implications: Gradually, week after week, positive news from labs around the globe touting progress on development of a COVID-19 vaccine will cause public fears about the coronavirus to give way to concerns about the economy. Voters will shift their attention from how to survive the virus to questions like, How do we recover economically? And, Who do we want in the White House, the Congress and in our state capitals to lead our economic recovery?
In addition to the issues of the Economy and Government Leadership, Diversity and especially Race Relations will also be on the short list of the most important problems on the minds of voters this fall.
Bottom line: Shifting political priorities means a shift in political fortunes.
Trump scores low on issues, high on counterpunching
President Trump’s poll numbers are lousy. Per today’s Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of all recent polls, far more people “disapprove” of the job he is doing overall as president (54.2%) than “approve” (43.4%). The only issue where Trump’s job approval is higher than his disapproval is on his handling of the economy, with an RCP average of 48.6% “approve,” 48% “disapprove”.
If the coronavirus is still the #1 most important issue on the minds of voters in November, President Trump will likely join former presidents Jimmy Carter, D-GA (1977-1981) and George H.W. Bush, R-TX (1989-1993), as the only presidents since Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) to win only one term.
However, if as I suspect concerns about the coronavirus give way to issues relating to economic recovery, government leadership, diversity and race relations, then President Trump has a fighting chance. Remember, Trump’s job approval score on his handling of the economy is a net positive.
So, there is good news and bad news for both parties in 2020.
The good news for Democrats is that the next generation of American voters are clearly more progressive and will certainly favor Democratic leadership over Republicans in Washington, DC in the near future. States with a solid GOP-friendly history like North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona are at a Democratic-friendly tipping point due to the growth of urban and minority voters.
The good news for Republicans is that so many DC Democrats have fumbled efforts to punish Trump for defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016 or botched attempts to weaken him politically with sabotage tactics like the Russian collusion fiasco, that their ascension to presidential power in the nation’s capital very well could be delayed for four years.
Never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening
Never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening or he will knock you out.
If U.S. Attorney John Durham recommends a single criminal indictment later this month resulting from his year-long probe into the Obama Justice Department’s handling of the investigation into collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, Trump will not only be vindicated, he will have a powerful counterpunch that can be thrown time and again, ad after ad, speech after speech, press conference after press conference, tweet after tweet … day after day until November 3, 2020.
Washington DC Democrats, through unrestrained personal vindictiveness (“We’re going to impeach the motherf***er,” Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-MI, told well-wishers the day she was sworn in), and congressional subterfuge (“I’m concerned that if we don’t impeach this president, he will get reelected,” Rep. Al Green, D-TX, told MSNBC), may have given President Trump too many opportunities for knockout counterpunches to start measuring the drapes in the Oval Office just yet.
That’s good news for Republicans. The bad news for Republicans is that this country is too diverse for an all-white male party to succeed in Washington, DC any longer. Diversify or you lose.
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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
Governor Cooper’s Political Fortunes Threatened by DC Democrats and Political Fault Lines Beyond His Control July 15, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 6 3:13 pm Handicappers say it’s Coopers to lose, however … The political handicappers I trust at the national level give the odds of winning the North Carolina race for governor to Gov. Roy [More…]
Governor Cooper’s Political Fortunes Threatened by DC Democrats and Political Fault Lines Beyond His Control
July 15, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 6 3:13 pm
Handicappers say it’s Coopers to lose, however …
The political handicappers I trust at the national level give the odds of winning the North Carolina race for governor to Gov. Roy Cooper, D-Nash. Charlie Cook (Cook Political Report) and Nathan Gonzales (Inside Elections) have the race rated as “Lean” Democratic. Larry Sabato (UVA – Sabato’s Crystal Ball) has the North Carolina race for governor as “Likely” Democratic.
I do not know of any non-partisan handicapper who gives the advantage in the governors race to Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, R-Mecklenburg. The Real Clear Politics average of all polls conducted in North Carolina since January 2020 is Cooper 48.8% and Forest 41%. Cooper also leads in fundraising.
The Associated Press reported on Tuesday this week that Gov. Cooper has raised a total of $19.3 million as of mid-year 2020, with $14 million Cash on Hand. Lt. Gov. Forest has raised a total of $6.9 million as of mid-year, with about $2 million Cash on Hand.
Despite Gov. Cooper’s solid leads in the polls and fundraising, my sense is that things are too volatile nationally for any of the North Carolina statewide races to have odds greater than 50/50. The political costs of rioting, arson, and looting associated with the Black Lives Matter movement, along with the crime wave in Democrat-led big cities in which Black children are being killed while protesters carry signs that read “Defund the Police,” those political costs will be measured at the ballot box in November. I suspect those costs will be substantial.
Another political problem threatening Gov. Cooper’s future in the Governor’s Mansion is the number of national Democratic leaders driven by their hatred of President Trump. They seem to be totally unaware that Donald Trump is the master troll; a master at getting his opponents to hate him so they will retaliate vindictively and make mistakes. With Trump, everything is intentional.
As Roy Cohn, Trump’s mentor, once said, “I bring out the worst in my enemies, and that’s how I get them to defeat themselves.”
Polls have become uniquely unreliable in 2020
But, what about the polls, you say. Today’s Real Clear Politics average shows Biden ahead of Trump by 9 points. Well, do you know any Trump voters who dare tell anyone that they plan to vote for Trump for fear of retribution? Sure you do. And for those of you who answered “no,” yes, you do too, you just don’t know who they are.
Trump voters dare not disclose their voting intentions or they will be ostracized. Vilified. Persecuted to the full extent of the law. Unfriended. Labeled a racist. Get fired. Be boycotted, like the current boycott of Goya Foods after the CEO complimented the President during a White House visit.
As much as I respect pollsters, the bitterness on the left towards Trump as routinely expressed by many journalists, academics, and the Cancel Culture liberal activists, has shut down any and all honest conversations about the Trump Administration. So many Trump voters have clammed up, especially if a stranger from a polling firm calls, that political polls have become uniquely unreliable in 2020.
As if the partisan and ideological divides in America are not volatile enough, there are other major fault lines creating uncertainty as to election outcomes. Race in particular; the San Andreas fault of all political fault lines. A tectonic boundary with seismic activity too great to ignore. Yet, “Defund the Police” may create a backlash that will offset any Democratic gains in enthusiasm and unity from the Black Lives Matter movement, especially among suburban white women and older voters.
The US Supreme Court and lower federal courts have become a major fault line. Income and educational disparities are always major fault lines; urban/suburban/rural priorities. Gender. Religion. Generational transitions. Cultural identity. Social media.
Global relationships are a fault line. The Cancel Culture. National debt and deficit spending. Poverty. Guns. Criminal justice. Police reform. Environment. Healthcare. Trump. All of these are major fault lines that could create an advantage for one party and a disaster for the other this fall.
Looking back over past races for governor, I would normally conclude that Gov. Cooper’s advantages argue that the race is his to lose. But that’s not true in 2020 because of all of the outside forces at play that Cooper has no control over. The North Carolina governors race is more the national Democrats to lose.
Cooper has done a good job in posturing himself for a second term. It’s his party leaders in DC and radical left activists who are the greatest threat to his political fortunes.
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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
Why Betting Odds Give Trump the Edge to Win the Presidential Race and How Democrats Can Up the Ante May 19, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 5 3:13 pm Presidential Race is About the Future Today’s Real Clear Politics average of all national presidential campaign polls shows Joe Biden, former Vice President now presumptive Democratic nominee, [More…]
Why Betting Odds Give Trump the Edge to Win the Presidential Race and How Democrats Can Up the Ante
May 19, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 5 3:13 pm
Presidential Race is About the Future
Today’s Real Clear Politics average of all national presidential campaign polls shows Joe Biden, former Vice President now presumptive Democratic nominee, ahead of President Trump by 48% to 44%. However, the same site has average betting odds showing Trump ahead by 51% to 42%.
So, why are oddsmakers favoring President Trump over Joe Biden to win the presidential race? Because presidential races are about the future, and Biden has both feet firmly planted in the past. Because it’s too easy to tie Biden to the persistent corruption of the Washington, D.C. establishment.
Nominating a 78-year old moderate white guy with a “been-there-done-that” campaign message and growing signs of weakening mental acuity is not the way for Democrats to win the Oval Office.
The future of the Democratic Party is a brand new generation of progressive urban voters, along with suburban women with college degrees; a new generation of tech savvy young voters of all races and ethnicities impatiently waiting for their chance to lead. A new generation with new ideas.
New ideas like higher education that does not shackle them with debt for decades; a healthcare system that welcomes them when they are sick rather than one with deductibles and copays so high they can’t go to the doctor. Win-win solutions to global challenges, not win-lose nationalistic isolationism.
But, you say, can’t Democrats win by making the 2020 presidential race a referendum on the White House? Well, with Joe Biden as the nominee, the question becomes, which White House?
A Referendum on Which White House?
Unfortunately, if Biden is going to make his campaign about Trump White House failures, he has to be able to defend himself against allegations of abuse of power by the Obama-Biden White House. The Obama-Biden Justice Department. FISA Court abuse. False information; withholding exculpatory notes.
The 17 “inexplicable” inaccuracies and omissions by the FBI in the process of obtaining four separate FISA warrants that led to unlawful spying. “It’s hard to look at all 17 of these events and conclude it was complete incompetence,” said Inspector General Michael Horowitz.
Biden is going to have to defend the Russian collusion allegation propagated by the Obama-Biden DOJ and perpetuated ad nauseam by Rep. Adam Schiff, D-CA, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, despite the fact that leading Obama Administration insiders, like former National Security Advisor Susan Rice and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, told Schiff’s Committee under oath that they never saw any proof of Russian collusion.
Biden is going to have to defend the impeachment trial of President Trump that proceeded even though there was not one single bipartisan vote in the House for the articles of impeachment. “Unless you have bipartisan consensus,” cautioned Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, in May 2019, “Many people would think it’s being done for political reasons.” Not one bipartisan vote.
Biden is going to have to defend potentially damning proof of dirty cops in the Obama-Biden Justice Department with the release of a senior FBI official’s handwritten notes regarding an upcoming interview at the Trump White House with then-National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. “What is our goal? Truth/Admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?”
If Democrats try to make the 2020 presidential race a referendum on the Trump White House, President Trump will tear them apart. He’s meaner, better funded, and has the bully pulpit.
Democrats cannot win the presidency by making the campaign a referendum on the Trump White House when the Obama-Biden White House is being indicted and convicted in the court of public opinion for abuse of power. It plays right into what Trump won on, corruption in Washington.
The only hope for Democrats to deny President Trump a second term is to shift the focus of the campaign from the past to the future by replacing Joe Biden with a presidential ticket that is a mirror image of the next generation of Americans. A ticket with a women at the top.
That’s the future of the Democratic Party. A brand new generation of progressive urban voters, along with suburban women with college degrees; a new generation of tech savvy young voters of all races and ethnicities impatiently waiting for their chance to lead. A new generation with new ideas.
Today, the betting odds favor the reelection of President Trump. Those odds will flip if Democrats shift their focus from a referendum on the Trump White House to a ticket focused on the future of the United States as envisioned by the emerging generations of 21st Century Americans.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Impeachment? What Impeachment? First Quarter 2020 Review of the Politics of the Coronavirus Pandemic March 31, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 4 9:13 am Note: I hope that you and your family and friends are well. I doubt any of us have ever seen our personal and business calendars with the word “canceled” written across [More…]
Impeachment? What Impeachment? First Quarter 2020 Review of the Politics of the Coronavirus Pandemic
March 31, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 4 9:13 am
Note: I hope that you and your family and friends are well. I doubt any of us have ever seen our personal and business calendars with the word “canceled” written across so many events. Haircuts and vacation plans. Civic and family events. Professional opportunities. Tournaments. All canceled because of the dreaded Covid-19 pandemic. When thinking this morning about those who are struggling with the disease and its aftermath, writing about politics seemed trivial. Then I remembered that on November 3, all three branches of government at the federal and state level are at stake. All three branches. Federal and state. The leaders of future crises. I’ll keep writing. And praying. All the best. John Davis
Impeachment: Nothing of Consequence
On January 1, 2020, we began the year with the impeachment trial of President Trump looming large as likely the most politically consequential event of the year. The trial, which began on January 16 in the US Senate, ended on February 5, a colossal dud. An epic misjudgment of both the strength of the case against the president and the persuasive skills of House impeachment managers.
Now, looking back on the first quarter of 2020, I can think of nothing more politically insignificant than the impeachment trial. It reminds me of the 2016 Benghazi hearings that backfired on Republicans. Or the two-year investigation by the Justice Department into corruption at the Clinton Foundation while Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State. The January 2020 DOJ finding? “Nothing of consequence.”
That’s the story of the impeachment trial of President Trump. Nothing of consequence.
Far more legally consequential than the impeachment of the president was the February 24 conviction of former movie mogul Harvey Weinstein on charges of rape and sexual assault, and the March 11 sentencing of Weinstein to 23 years in prison. Sexually exploitive relationships in the workplace are thereby checked for good by the threat of prison time.
Another legally significant event was the February 20 sentencing of Roger Stone, former political consultant to President Trump. Stone was sentenced to 40 months in prison after being found guilty of obstruction of justice, witness tampering and lying to investigators. Stone now joins Michael Cohen, President Trump’s personal attorney, and Paul Manafort, former Campaign Chairman, behind bars.
The only political consequence of the impeachment trial turned out to be good for the embattled President. Per Gallup polling conducted during the heat of the trial (January 16 to 29), Trump’s job approval had “risen to 49%, his highest in Gallup polling since he took office in 2017.” The poll also found that 52% of Americans favored acquitting Trump, to only 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.
That’s why on January 29, it was no surprise that the Senate voted 51-49 against allowing additional time to interview more witnesses against President Trump. The president had won the argument in the only court that mattered politically to Republican Senators, the court of public opinion.
President Trump played the impeachment trial the same way President Clinton had done in 1999. He kept being President. A Phase 1 trade deal with China. The United States – Mexico – Canada trade agreement, a revision of NAFTA. He held political rallies in key primary and caucus states. He mocked the Democratic House leadership and the negative press coverage of the trial.
By the time President Trump delivered his third State of the Union address on February 4, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was so infuriated that she ripped her copy of the speech into shreds as she stood behind the President. She had struck out. No Russian collusion. No obstruction. No impeachment conviction.
The next day, February 5, the Senate acquitted President Trump on both articles of impeachment. Democrats needed 20 Republican Senators to reach the 67 votes to convict the president and remove him from office. They only got one, Sen. Mitt Romney from Utah.
Nothing of consequence.
Social and Political Consequences of the Coronavirus Pandemic
On February 5, the day of President Trump’s acquittal, few had given any thought to the news of an event that had happened fifteen days earlier in a hospital in Everett, Washington. That was the day the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first case of coronavirus in the United States. A man in his 30s with pneumonia-like symptoms had just returned from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of a new virus called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Not to worry. Washington Governor Jay Inslee assured reporters that the risk of the coronavirus spreading remained low. Afterall, the patient was a single guy who lived and traveled alone.
But spread it did. Quickly. From one case in the state of Washington to 163,479 confirmed cases from all 50 states. As of today, March 31, the United States has the most confirmed cases of any country in the world. Likely the most politically consequential event of the year.
As the cases grew, so did the restrictions. Worldwide travel advisories. Cancellations.
Major league baseball opening day was suspended, the first time in 132 years! The 146th running of the Kentucky Derby has been rescheduled for September 5. The Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics rescheduled for July 23 to August 8, 2021.
NCAA March madness basketball tournament was cancelled, the first time in its 81-year history. Seasons were suspended in all professional, college and high school sports leagues.
Entertainment, forget it. Performing arts. Movies. On March 24, the US box office recorded zero revenue for the first time ever. First time ever. Restaurants, closed except for takeout.
Uncertainties surrounding the spread of the coronavirus caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plunge 1190 on February 27, the largest one day points decline in history. Again, on March 16, the Dow fell by 2997 points, another history-making point drop in a single day.
Meanwhile, the President, the Congress and the Governors, along with federal and state agencies, were working frantically to develop plans to mitigate the pandemic in the United States. Medical protection gear. Hospital beds and personnel. Drug therapies. Ventilators.
Slowly but surely consensus was growing among Americans. Yes, it’s as bad as they say. Yes, we all have to pull together to get beyond it. And the best way to pull together is to stay apart.
There were other worries beyond the disease. The economy. National, state, local. Personal. Too many unemployed. Too many businesses shuttered.
Finally, on Wednesday, March 25, there was cause for hope. The Senate passed the biggest economic stimulus bill in US history unanimously, 96 to 0. The market responded immediately. The Dow jumped by over 2,100 points, its biggest one-day percentage gain (11%) since 1933!
On Friday, March 27, the House passed the bill by voice vote. The President signed it into law on the same day. After many frustrating days of round-the-clock negotiations, a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill. Money for hospitals and first responders at the forefront of the coronavirus pandemic.
Money for small businesses and employees. Reasons to be optimistic that we will get beyond this and recover our health and economy. Insurance companies waved copays for coronavirus treatment. Banks waived mortgage payments for those in financial crisis. IRS waived tax filing until July 15.
Looking back over the first quarter of 2020, we have seen the worst and best of human relationships. We have known fear and hope. Disappointment and encouragement. We have known anger and great sadness. I don’t think I will ever get over the death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter and their friends in the January 26 helicopter crash in Calabasas, California. Loss beyond measure.
But the chapter of the first quarter of 2020 ends today. And now we must look forward.
On July 13-16, the Democratic National Convention will be held in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Former Vice President Joe Biden has become the presumptive presidential nominee, but without a whole lot of spontaneous enthusiasm. An inspired choice of a female running mate may be the needed spark.
Also, on tap for the summer, is the August 24-27 Republican National Convention in Charlotte. As the first quarter of 2020 ends, President Trump’s job approval is at an all-time high of 49% per Gallup, with over 60% approving of the job he is doing managing the coronavirus crisis.
As to whether the coronavirus will be the most politically consequential event of the year on General Election Day, November 3, 2020, or whether it will be overshadowed by an event of even greater concern, we do not know. What we do know is that Election Day is the day we choose the leaders who will manage the next crisis. And the one after that.
We began the first quarter with everyone at each other’s throats. Questioning each other’s political motives. Estranged. One side certain that impeachment was justified because President Trump had abused his power. The other side certain that impeachment was an abuse of power by Congress.
We begin the second quarter of 2020 much closer together. Bound by a common concern for each other because of the threat of the coronavirus. More willing to cooperate with each other to mitigate the threat. To look out for each other. To pray for each other. To mourn strangers who have died.
Impeachment? What impeachment?
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Note: Feel free to forward this report.
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Scuppernongs May Perfume the Breeze at Night but the Strong Need Luck in NC to Win a US Senate Race March 18, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 3 9:13 am NC Fifty-Year Trend: Only 2-of-9 US Senators Won a Second Term North Carolina’s official state toast, The Old North State, written in 1904, proclaims that [More…]
Scuppernongs May Perfume the Breeze at Night but the Strong Need Luck in NC to Win a US Senate Race
March 18, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 3 9:13 am
NC Fifty-Year Trend: Only 2-of-9 US Senators Won a Second Term
North Carolina’s official state toast, The Old North State, written in 1904, proclaims that the land “where the scuppernong perfumes the breeze at night,” is also the land where “the weak grow strong, and the strong grow great.” Let me assure you, that does not apply to North Carolina politics.
Here in the land of the long leaf pine, weak political leaders lose reelection campaigns and the strong leaders need right much luck to win another term, especially in US Senate races.
In the last 50 years, only 2-of-9 US Senators from North Carolina won reelection.
Since 1970, only US Sen. Jesse Helms, R-Union (1973-2003) and US Sen. Richard Burr, R-Forsyth (2005 to Present) won races for reelection to the US Senate from North Carolina.
Republicans who lost races for another term since 1970: James Broyhill (1986), Lauch Faircloth (1993-1999), Elizabeth Dole, (2003-2009). Note: Sen. John East died.
Since 1970, all NC Democratic US Senators seeking reelection lost: B. Everett Jordan (1958-1973), Robert Morgan (1975-81), Terry Sanford (1986-1993), Kay Hagan (2009-15).
Two Democrats retired: Sen. Sam Ervin, Jr. (1954-1974) and Sen. John Edwards (1999-2005).
A positive advantage of living in one of the nation’s most politically competitive states is strong leadership. You have to be strong to win. But, in US Senate races, even if you are strong you also have to be lucky. And it’s the luck of presidential job approval that matters most.
Presidential Job Approval Can Make or Break a US Senate Candidate
On November 4, 2008, Kay Hagan, D-Guilford, became the first woman in United States history to defeat an incumbent woman US Senator when she outpolled Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-Rowan, by a whopping 53% to 44%. Hagan won because she was strong. And, because she was lucky.
Kay Hagan was a seasoned banker, a lawyer and five-term state Senator. Raised in a political family. Her father, Mayor of Lakeland, Florida; her uncle a Florida US Senator and Governor.
But Kay Hagan would not likely have defeated Liddy Dole in 2008 if it were not for luck.
Lucky because in 2008, the election of the first African-American president in United States history drove turnout for North Carolina Democrats up to historic highs.
Lucky because the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made her their number one opportunity race, spending more money in North Carolina in 2008 than in any other state.
But most of all, Democrat Kay Hagan was lucky in the fall of 2008 because Republican President George W. Bush’s job approval hit one of Gallup’s three all-time lowest marks of 25%. (Note: President Richard Nixon scored a 24% job approval after Watergate in 1974, and President Harry Truman scored the lowest ever low of 22% in 1952 after he fired national hero Gen. Douglas MacArthur.)
The luck of Presidential job approval, key to Kay Hagan’s defeat of Elizabeth Dole, was also a major factor in why Dole defeated Erskine Bowles in in 2002. Yes, Dole was a strong candidate. Duke University, Harvard Law, cabinet member with President Reagan and President GHW Bush, head of the American Red Cross. But luck was the winning difference.
In 2002, President George W. Bush enjoyed record high job approval because Americans united under his leadership after the 9/11 crisis. (Note: Bush’s job approval reached 90% immediately after the crisis, the highest in Gallup history.) Republicans took back the US Senate in 2002, the first time ever that the president’s party gained control of a chamber of Congress during a mid-term election year.
Elizabeth Dole won the US Senate seat held for 30 years by retiring Sen. Jesse Helms. Helms became the first Republican Senator in the 20th Century from North Carolina in 1972, thanks to President Nixon’s 62% job approval and landslide reelection win. (Nixon won 49 of 50 states.)
Presidential job approval also contributed greatly to Republican Thom Tillis’s defeat of US Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014, when President Obama’s job approval fell to a low of 38%. It was the lowest rating of his presidency, driven down by horrific terrorist incidents and the Ebola virus crisis.
Now, in 2020, US Sen. Thom Tillis’s political fortunes are in the hands of a US President who will be judged in part by how he manages today’s Coronavirus crisis. Likewise, Sen. Tillis’s Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, D-Davidson, faces the same political reality: as goes the President’s job approval, so goes the US Senate race.
Yes, Cal Cunningham is a strong candidate. UNC Chapel Hill law degree. Army veteran. And, per all major political handicappers, like the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, the Tillis/Cunningham US Senate race is a toss-up. He has a 50/50 chance of winning.
But here in the land “where the scuppernong perfumes the breeze at night,” strong US Senate candidates do not grow great without right much luck from the job approval of the US president.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
NC Democrats in Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t Dilemma with Bernie Sanders in Presidential Race February 24, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 2 9:13 am Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities is the title of a new study published February 11, 2020 by the [More…]
NC Democrats in Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t Dilemma with Bernie Sanders in Presidential Race
February 24, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 2 9:13 am
Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities
Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities is the title of a new study published February 11, 2020 by the Gallup polling organization, a title that virtually shouts a dire warning to Democrats everywhere. Don’t choose socialist Bernie Sanders as your presidential nominee!
According to Gallup, “socialist” is the least desirable among the 12 characteristics of candidates for president of the United States in the national survey.
The wording of the Gallup question was, “If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be a socialist, would you vote for that person?” Only 45% of voting age Americans would vote for a well-qualified socialist for president.
So, how does “socialist” compare to the other characteristics? Over 90% of Americans would vote for a well-qualified candidate who is Black (96%), Catholic (95%), Hispanic (94%), Woman (93%), Jewish (93%). Note: Sanders is Jewish. As for Socialist, only 45%; 15-points lower than Atheist!
There is no doubt that 78-year-old, self-avowed socialist Bernie Sanders is the front-runner in the Democratic Party’s race for the presidential nomination after wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. There is also no doubt that Sanders would be a drag on the Democratic Party in the 2020 in a centrist, swing state like North Carolina. And the timing could not be worse.
North Carolina has 20 statewide races this fall with a history of razor-thin margins of victories. For example, in 2016, five of 10 Council of State races were won with only 50% of the vote plus a small margin of victory. Gov. Roy Cooper, D-Nash, won with only 49%.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
Democrats are damned if they do choose Bernie Sanders as their party’s nominee for President because “socialist” is the least desirable characteristic in a president, and damned if they don’t choose Bernie Sanders because they risk losing his enthusiastic base of young voters.
Many younger voters are drawn to Bernie Sanders’s platform of Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, a $15 minimum wage, higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals, breaking up Wall Street banks, unionization of American workers, free public college tuition, legalization of marijuana, income equality, immigration policy and LGBTQ rights.
However, as the front-runner, Sanders faces a constant barrage of attacks from establishment Democrats, many of whom insist that a radical left socialist cannot win the race for the presidency.
Next Tuesday, March 3, North Carolina will choose the pairings in the 20 statewide races in the upcoming General Election: Governor and 9 Council of State races, US Senate, NC Supreme Court (3 races) and NC Court of Appeals (5 races). Many will be decided this fall by a fraction of a point.
For Republicans, a historic economy and 94% GOP job approval for President Trump bodes well for their prospects for high turnout and good success in this year’s elections.
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
NC Among Top States Likely to Spend the Most on Media in Races for US President, US Senate and Governor January 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 1 9:13 am Political Briefing: If you are interested in having me brief your company or trade group on the status of 2020 federal and state campaigns, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com [More…]
NC Among Top States Likely to Spend the Most on Media in Races for US President, US Senate and Governor
January 27, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 1 9:13 am
Political Briefing:If you are interested in having me brief your company or trade group on the status of 2020 federal and state campaigns, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com
Citizens United Decision in 2010 Opened the Independent $ Floodgate
On January 21, 2010, the US Supreme Court ruled in the Citizens United case that wealthy individuals, corporations and trade associations can spend an unlimited amount on political campaigns as long as they do so independently. Just hire your own consultants and create your own ads.
The Citizens United ruling is why Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor and current Democratic Presidential Primary contender, can make good on his threat to spend $1 billion of his own fortune to defeat President Trump. He said if he loses the nomination, he will still spend $1 billion to defeat Trump, “even it means helping nominees like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.”
If you doubt Bloomberg’s commitment, consider that his net worth is $60 billion, he has already spent $258 million of his own money on his presidential ads, and he paid $11 million for a Super Bowl TV ad. According to Advertising Analytics, from January 18-24, Michael Bloomberg had the #1 most played ad for the week, “Defeat Donald Trump,” which aired 14,174 times.
Unlimited independent political spending is the floodgate Citizens United opened in 2010.
A new study released this month by the Center for Responsive Politics reveals that only about $375 million was spent independently on political races per decade from 1990 to 2010. Since 2010?
$4.5 billion has been spent by non-party independent groups since 2010
Wealthy individual donors, not corporations, now have the dominant financial influence
Top 10 most generous donors contributed 1.2 billion to independent groups since 2010
Here in North Carolina, we saw the impact of the Citizens United ruling during the 2016 races for governor and other statewide campaigns when $33.1 million was spent by outside independent groups, per an analysis by Facing South. Outside groups spent $16.4 million just in the governor’s race.
NC Governor’s Race Likely #1 in US for Political Media Spending
If you add the $16.4 million spent by outside groups to the $16.8 million spent by then-Gov. Pat McCrory, R-Mecklenburg, and the $24.2 million spent by then-AG Roy Cooper, D-Nash, a total of $57.4 million was spent in the last governor’s race in North Carolina. This explains how North Carolina’s 2016 race for governor was #1 in the nation in TV ad spending in the General Election.
With the $86 million spent by outside groups, total spending in North Carolina’s 2014 Senate race was $124 million, making it the #1 most expensive US Senate race in the country.
So, what can we expect in 2020 in the US Senate race in North Carolina? More of the same, for two reasons: One, Sen. Thom Tillis is on the very short list of the most vulnerable US Senators. Two, the US Supreme Court, now 5-4 conservative, is at stake. Nothing is more consequential in 2020 than who nominates (President) and who confirms (US Senate) the next nominee to the Nation’s highest court.
Everything is at stake in 2020. The President, US Supreme Court, US Senate and House; the Governor, Council of State, Appellate Judiciary, the General Assembly … and the next maps!
Truly one of the most consequential … and expensive … election years of our lifetime.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Impeachment Discredited Politically by IG Report and Bitter House Democrats with “0%” Bipartisan Support December 12, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 11 3:13 pm Yes, Trump is Appalling, but … It does not matter politically that everything President Donald Trump is accused of by US House Democrats is true if the alternative to President Trump is [More…]
Impeachment Discredited Politically by IG Report and Bitter House Democrats with “0%” Bipartisan Support
December 12, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 11 3:13 pm
Yes, Trump is Appalling, but …
It does not matter politically that everything President Donald Trump is accused of by US House Democrats is true if the alternative to President Trump is worse. After witnessing both the spectacle of the hyper-partisan impeachment proceedings, that failed to convert a single bipartisan vote, and the testimony by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz exposing corruption in the highest ranks of the FBI, many Americans will undoubtedly conclude that the alternative to Trump is worse.
What’s worse than President Trump’s everyday appalling comments and behavior? How about FBI lawyers who alter CIA email to say that a respected CIA informant, Naval Academy graduate and Trump campaign advisor Carter Page, was not a CIA asset? Intentionally falsifying a FISA application document is illegal. Withholding exculpatory information is the reason Carter Page was unjustly suspected of spying for Russia and why the FISA court approved spying on Carter Page.
But, is Trump’s behavior more appalling than the Inspector General’s testimony that 17 “inexplicable” inaccuracies and omissions by the FBI in the process of obtaining four separate FISA warrants led to the unwarranted spying on Carter Page? Intentional? “It’s hard to look at all 17 of these events and conclude it was complete incompetence,” said Horowitz.
Is Trump’s behavior more appalling than the fact that the FBI knew and failed to report that the Steele dossier, the document that Horowitz said “pushed the FISA over the line” in establishing probable cause for spying on Carter Page, was not only written by an unreliable source who was “desperate to prevent Mr. Trump’s election,” but was paid for by the Clinton campaign?
The FBI had a duty to report exculpatory information and to obtain evidence legally, and they didn’t. The FBI has been caught by the Inspector General using the “fruit of the poisonous tree” to, as Attorney General William Barr said on Monday, “launch an intrusive investigation of a US presidential campaign on the thinnest of suspicions that, in my view, were insufficient to justify the steps taken.”
That, my friends, is appalling. And, as much can be said for the impeachment proceedings.
Impeachment with Avengeance Yields “0%” Bipartisan Support
US House Democrats have launched an intrusive investigation of a US President on suspicions so thin that they have failed to achieve their goal of bipartisan support. Not one Republican is with them.
I cautioned in my last report, if the final US House vote on impeachment is 100% partisan, Democrats will be facing a political backlash in 2020. The vote on impeachment is 100% partisan.
So, what happened to Pelosi’s wise council on the need for bipartisan consensus? Bitterness.
From the day Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, too many House Democrats have allowed their bitterness to get the best of them. Sure, they stand soberly before the microphones quoting American founders and justifying impeachment as their duty to the Constitution, but most Americans only see bitter partisans in a Congress with a 21.8% Job Approval rating (66.5% disapprove).
On December 18, 1998, Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said, “The Republican majority is not judging President Clinton with fairness but impeaching him with avengeance. We are here today because Republicans are paralyzed with hatred.” The same statement can be made about Democrats today.
The lack of bipartisan support for impeachment, along with the Inspector General’s report this week, clearly make the case that President Trump is being impeached with avengeance because Democrats are paralyzed with hatred over losing in 2016.
It does not matter politically that everything President Donald Trump is accused of by US House Democrats is true if the alternative to President Trump is worse. Revenge impeachment is worse.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
The Only Impeachment Hearing that Matters Today is In the Court of Public Opinion, Not the US House November 13, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 10 7:13 am The Court of Public Opinion is About How the Public Feels The impeachment proceedings beginning today in the US House must ultimately be seen in the court of [More…]
The Only Impeachment Hearing that Matters Today is In the Court of Public Opinion, Not the US House
November 13, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 10 7:13 am
The Court of Public Opinion is About How the Public Feels
The impeachment proceedings beginning today in the US House must ultimately be seen in the court of public opinion as fair, unvengeful and bipartisan. Otherwise, Democrats will be facing a political backlash in 2020. A backlash that would likely include a second term for President Trump and perhaps two more conservatives on the United States Supreme Court.
On impeachment, US House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-South Carolina, said on CNN’s State of the Union, “If the public ever feels that we are being political with this, we will have done a tremendous harm to the country, to the Constitution, and to the people that we are sworn to serve.” Clyburn knows that in the court of public opinion, how the public “feels” about the impeachment proceedings against President Trump is far more important than the facts of the case.
President Trump can be “indicted” in a formal proceeding like the impeachment hearings but exonerated in the court of public opinion. That’s what happened to President Bill Clinton in 1998.
On December 19, 1998, President Clinton was “indicted” when a GOP-led US House voted to impeach him on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. The very next day, Gallup polling revealed that the president’s job approval had spiked to a record 73%, higher than President Ronald Reagan’s ever was. Clinton was not indicted in the court that mattered, the court of public opinion.
There is no better proof of the political primacy of the court of public opinion than the irony that it was Republicans who lost ground in the General Election of 1998 during the height of the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal. Republicans lost because voters “felt” that the GOP US House leaders were handling the impeachment inquiry in a vengeful and blatantly partisan political manner.
On November 3, 1998, Democrats gained seats in the US House, the first time since 1934 that the party in the White House picked up seats during a mid-term election year. GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich lost his job. In North Carolina, Democrats took back the NC House from Republicans, and Republican US Sen. Lauch Faircloth was defeated by political upstart Democrat John Edwards.
US House Republicans learned the hard way in 1998 that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of a scandal-plagued president. That strategic misjudgment could easily be repeated this year if, as Rep. James Clyburn said, the “public ever feels” that the US House Democrats are “being political” with the Trump impeachment hearings.
Your character is more than your worst mistakes
If US House Democrats vote out articles of impeachment against President Trump, the most formidable challenge then becomes the fact that US Senate Democrats have only 47 of the 67 votes needed for conviction.
Where are Democrats going to find 20 Republicans to vote against President Trump when, per NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted October 27-30, a whopping 91% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing and 90% oppose removing him from office? It would be political suicide.
If you do not understand why 91% of Republicans remain loyal to President Trump, consider the similarities between Trump and President Clinton.
During the impeachment hearings, President Clinton’s supporters knew that he cheated on his wife time and time again and lied about it time and time again; lied to her, the country, and the Congress. But they also knew that Clinton cared deeply about them. He stood up for people like them.
Your character is more than your worst mistakes. Caring is character too. It’s one of the great political lessons from the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.
Like Clinton, President Trump enjoys the solid support of his base despite his character flaws. They know he cares about them deeply. He stands boldly for their causes. He’s making America great again!
There are many other similarities. Both Presidents Clinton and Trump have presided over historic periods of economic expansion. They both seem to love life on the edge. Taking risks.
Both are political geniuses. Self-absorbed and self-righteous. They share a solid reputation for having a loose grip on the truth. But despite all of their faults, their supporters believe deep down inside that they truly want to make the world a better place. That they care.
If American voters believe that Democrats are not judging President Trump with fairness but impeaching him with avengeance, they will lose in the court of public opinion. If they lose in the court of public opinion, they will not get bipartisan support for articles of impeachment, and certainly not get 20 Republican senators to vote “guilty.”
That’s why the US House Democrats are treading on thin ice with the impeachment hearings. If they fail to convict President Trump in the court of public opinion, they can say goodbye to the White House until 2024 and say hello to a 7-2 conservative US Supreme Court for many years to come.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political ReportJohn N. Davis
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
If George W and Ellen DeGeneres Can be Friends then Gov Cooper, Sen Berger and Rep Moore Can Back H140 October 10, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 9 8:13 am Partisan Districts Are One of the Two Root Causes of Partisan Incivility Partisan districts are one of the two root causes of the partisan incivility in [More…]
If George W and Ellen DeGeneres Can be Friends then Gov Cooper, Sen Berger and Rep Moore Can Back H140
October 10, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 9 8:13 am
Partisan Districts Are One of the Two Root Causes of Partisan Incivility
Partisan districts are one of the two root causes of the partisan incivility in America today. That’s because partisan zealots who live in those districts demand that their representatives stick to partisan ideals, even if nothing gets done. Compromise with the enemy and you lose your next primary race.
Ideals have become more important than deals. Republican ideals and Democratic ideals; the ideals of African-American voters and Hispanic voters in their majority-minority districts. Deal making, essential to incremental progress on the needs of the state and nation, has become an act of betrayal.
Too many partisan districts in a state guarantees ongoing ideological incivility.
According to an analysis of the latest proposed North Carolina legislative maps conducted by Dr. Michael Bitzer, head of the Catawba College Department of Politics, 102 of 120 House districts are either “likely” to elect one party over the other or clearly “lean” to the favor of one party. Among the 50 Senate districts, 40 are in “likely/lean” districts. The races are over before they start.
This means 85% – 90% of North Carolina lawmakers are elected in partisan districts where the voters actually encourage them not to compromise their partisan values. Or else.
So, how do we end the interminable litigation and redrawing of political maps? By having the voters approve a constitutional amendment next March 3, 2020, establishing a nonpartisan redistricting commission and process for mapmaking, along with criteria, that will give everyone a fair shake.
H140, the FAIR (Fairness and Integrity in Redistricting) Act, a bill in the North Carolina House filed in February, does just that. It calls for a referendum to ask voters to permanently establish in the state constitution the criteria for drawing the state’s political districts that precludes the use of data “which would identify … the voting tendencies of any group of citizens.” See Bill Summary: H140.
The latest Public Policy Polling statewide survey of North Carolina voters shows game changing bipartisan support (62%/9%) for nonpartisan mapping of the state’s political districts. Only 5% of Democratic voters are against nonpartisan maps, only 9% of independent voters are against nonpartisan maps, and most significantly, only 15% of North Carolina Republicans are against nonpartisan maps.
The poll question read: Would you support or oppose changing North Carolina law so that Congressional and Legislative districts are drawn in a nonpartisan fashion? Support/Oppose by partisan affiliation: Democrats 69%/5%; Independents 68%/9%; Republicans 49%/15%.
The timing is right for Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, Republican Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger and Republican House Speaker Tim Moore to get behind a bill like H140.
As Senator Phil Berger said in a September 3, 2019 statement, “Nearly a decade of relentless litigation has strained the legitimacy of this state’s institutions, and the relationship between its leaders, to the breaking point. It’s time to move on.”
Second of the Two Root Causes of Partisan Incivility is Moral Superiority
Moral superiority. That’s the second of the two root causes of partisan incivility in America. Public policy issues have become moral issues. Good versus evil. You can’t compromise your morals. You must not associate with politically immoral voters. Stay huddled at a distance with your moral tribe.
But wait. There is hope! There are signs that many influential Americans are so tired of partisan gridlock that they are willing to demonstrate, by their actions, that civility among partisans is possible. It’s what former President George W. Bush and Laura Bush did last Sunday when they sat with Ellen DeGeneres and her wife at the Dallas Cowboys game. It sparked a liberal outcry.
Monday, on the Ellen DeGeneres Show, Ellen addressed the resentfulness of liberals over her sitting with conservative Republicans at a football game … and appearing to enjoy their company.
“Here’s the thing: I’m friends with George Bush,” DeGeneres began. “In fact, I’m friends with a lot of people who don’t share the same beliefs that I have. We’re all different, and I think we’ve forgotten that that’s ok, that we’re all different…but just because I don’t agree with someone on everything doesn’t mean that I’m not doing to be friends with them.”
DeGeneres concluded, “When I say, ‘be kind to one another,’ I don’t only mean the people that think the same way that you do. I mean be kind to everyone. Doesn’t matter.”
“We’re a family,” Justice Sotomayor went on to say, “each of us with our own burdens and our own obligations to others. But this is our work family, and it’s just as important as our personal family.”
We are a nation of political factions gridlocked and estranged; uncivil. The two root causes of incivility are the predominance of partisan districts, where voters demand partisan ideals over deals, and moral superiority, the divisive, self-righteous attitude fostered by too many of today’s partisan leaders.
It’s time to move on from the root causes of political incivility. It’s time to urge our leaders to back a bill like H140, the FAIR Act, that will greatly reduce the number of partisan districts in the state. It’s time to ask our leaders to shift their focus from ideals to deals and to start treating each other like family.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
