A Nation & State in Check Politically Explains Why Voters are Angry and 2020 Advantages are Fleeting September 24, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 8 8:13 am Absolutely No Political Leader Has a Guaranteed 2020 Advantage We are a nation and state in which partisan leaders of every government branch are in political check. It’s why
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A Nation & State in Check Politically Explains Why Voters are Angry and 2020 Advantages are Fleeting
September 24, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 8 8:13 am
Absolutely No Political Leader Has a Guaranteed 2020 Advantage
We are a nation and state in which partisan leaders of every government branch are in political check. It’s why federal leaders in Washington are gridlocked on issues important to voters like immigration, gun violence and health care. It’s why state leaders in Raleigh can’t pass a budget.
A gridlocked nation and state in check at every turn is why voters are furious. It is why absolutely no partisan leader, from the White House and the US Congress to the Governor’s Mansion and the General Assembly, has a guaranteed 2020 political advantage.
President Trump has been checked from day one by disloyal federal bureaucrats, who can’t be fired, undermining his every move. Checked by angry, indictment-hungry US House Democrats using congressional oversight power to orchestrate justification for Articles of Impeachment.
Ironically, the Democratic House caucus is itself checked by feuding factions over impeachment; a divided caucus led by aging, out-of-touch leaders from by-gone eras checked by disrespectful squads of youthful, more liberal insurgents.
We are a nation in political check at every turn. Left and right. Rich and poor. Men and women of all races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, religions and political persuasions. The wealthy checked by the wealthy. Generations by generations. Liberal federal judges checked by conservative judges.
Highly Qualified But Partisan Federal Judges
President Trump has also been checked time-and-time-again by President Barack Obama’s 327 confirmed liberal federal judges and two liberal US Supreme Court Justices, Sonya Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. But, turnabout in ideological court packing is fair play.
Today, liberal members of the federal judiciary find themselves checked by President Trump’s 152 confirmed conservatives on the federal bench, including two US Supreme Court Justices, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, confirmations that shifted the nation’s highest court to 5-4 conservative.
According to this morning’s News & Observer, US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said in her speech in Raleigh last night to Meredith College students and faculty that the politization of the Supreme Court needs to stop. “I hope I live to see the day when we go back to the way it was, and the way it should be.” said Ginsburg.
Meanwhile, we have conservative judges and justices checking their liberal associates.
As Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in a statement celebrating President Trump’s 150th federal judge earlier this month, “I will continue to push through highly qualified, conservative judges at all levels of the federal courts.”
NC Capital Press Corp and White House Press Checked by Social Media
Time was, the Capital Press corps in Raleigh and the White House press corps in DC had the dominant influence on public perceptions of what was politically newsworthy; perceptions of who was the saint and who the sinner in the epic battles over government’s moral obligations.
Not anymore. The moment the 487,000 print and 3 million digital editions of the New York Times are delivered with negative stories about President Trump, he can refute the allegations in a matter of seconds with Tweets to his 64.5 million Twitter followers.
Today, the political influence of traditional state and national political news sources is checked by Internet-based social media giants like Facebook (1.6 billion daily users), YouTube (149 million daily users), WhatsApp (1 billion daily users), Instagram (600 million daily users) and Twitter (134 million daily users). The once mighty Capital Press corps and the White House press corps checked.
Unfortunately, social media has now become the #1 source for political bias and misinformation. The #1 source for ruthless character assassination of political leaders with whom we disagree.
There is nowhere to turn for reliable news anymore, and so we turn to those we trust: our tribe.
The highest gap ever measured by Gallup between the parties on the matter of presidential job approval (86-points) was reported on September 19, 2019, with 91% of Republicans approving of the job President Trump is doing as compared to only 5% job approval among Democrats.
We are a nation of political factions gridlocked and estranged. Huddled at a suspicious distance from each other, smugly dismissive of anyone who dares to disagree; anyone who questions our moral superiority. Compromise be damned. You don’t negotiate with terrorists.
A gridlocked nation and state in check at every turn is why voters are furious. It’s why no leader in Washington or Raleigh has a guaranteed political advantage going into 2020.
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SCOTUS Upholds NC GOP Gerrymandering and Shifts Map Fairness Remedies to States and Congress June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 7 11:13 am Time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering is upheld The US Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision split along partisan appointment lines, upheld the North Carolina Republican legislature’s partisan gerrymandered congressional maps in a
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SCOTUS Upholds NC GOP Gerrymandering and Shifts Map Fairness Remedies to States and Congress
June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 7 11:13 am
Time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering is upheld
The US Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision split along partisan appointment lines, upheld the North Carolina Republican legislature’s partisan gerrymandered congressional maps in a ruling announced this morning in the Rucho v. Common Cause case. The decision, delivered by Chief Justice John Roberts, also concluded that under the US Constitution, any remedy to issues of partisan unfairness in mapmaking should be addressed by the states and the Congress, not the federal courts.
While acknowledging that “excessive partisanship in districting leads to results that reasonably seem unjust,” Chief Justice Roberts stated that partisan gerrymandering claims “present political questions beyond the reach of the federal courts.”
From now on, issues of partisan gerrymandering are for the states and the congress to decide.
Here are several highlights of the opinion:
“… the Constitution does not require proportional representation, and federal courts are neither equipped nor authorized to apportion political power as a matter of fairness.”
“This courts one-person, one-vote cases recognize that each person is entitled to an equal say in the election of representatives. It hardly follows from that principle that a person is entitled to have his political party achieve representation commensurate to its share of statewide support.”
“Vote dilution in the one-person, one-vote cases refers to the idea that each vote must carry equal weight. That requirement does not extend to political parties; it does not mean that each party must be influential in proportion to the number of its supporters.”
“… districting for some level of partisan advantage is not unconstitutional.”
Under today’s Rucho v. Common Cause ruling, the party that wins North Carolina’s legislative majorities in 2020 will still be able to enjoy the time-honored tradition of partisan gerrymandering.
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“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
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Today US Supreme Court Rules on Constitutionality of North Carolina Partisan Gerrymandering June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 6 6:13 am Will time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering be overturned? At 10 am this morning, Thursday, June 27, 2019, the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of partisan gerrymandering in North Carolina. The case,
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Today US Supreme Court Rules on Constitutionality of North Carolina Partisan Gerrymandering
June 27, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 6 6:13 am
Will time-honored right to partisan gerrymandering be overturned?
At 10 am this morning, Thursday, June 27, 2019, the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of partisan gerrymandering in North Carolina. The case, Rucho v. Common Cause, is one of the five final decisions of the term which began the first Monday of October 2018.
Rucho v. Common Cause has the potential of becoming one the most politically disruptive Supreme Court decisions in history. It stands to either affirm or overturn the time-honored right of the majority party in the state legislature to draw maps that favor the election of their party’s candidates.
Historically, unlike maps that discriminate against voters based on race, the US Supreme Court has ruled that maps that discriminate as to one party’s political advantage over another political party are okay. The authority to draw maps to your partisan advantage is simply one of the spoils of state legislative political warfare. If you want to draw the maps, then you must win the majority of legislative seats every 10 years at the time of redistricting.
Bottom line: American voters have never had a constitutional right of equality of partisan power. Restated for emphasis: Democratic and Republican voters have no constitutional right as a group to legislative and congressional district maps that give their party an equal chance to win an election.
That’s why I noted that today’s Rucho v. Common Cause decision could be one of the most politically disruptive Supreme Court decisions in history. If the court rules that partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional, it will overturn America’s winner-take-all system of two-party governance.
American politics is a winner-take-all system
American politics is a winner-take-all system. If your party wins the majority of the seats in a legislative chamber, even by only one seat, you get 100% of the committee chairs. You get to make the rules. Stack the committees so your bills get heard and your opponent’s bills get buried.
There is no such thing as a constitutional requirement for proportional representation in any of the three branches of state government based on the partisan share of the electorate. The state may be divided right down the middle with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, but if you win the governor’s race by only 1 vote, you still win 100% of the power vested in the office of governor.
Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has the constitutional right to select loyal Democrats in 100% of his staff positions. All of his appointments to state boards and commissions can be loyal Democrats. All of his judicial appointments may be loyal Democrats.
The North Carolina Supreme Court is now a 6-1 Democratic majority thanks to two Democratic justices appointed by Governor Cooper. Appointing Democratic justices to fill unexpired terms is Gov. Cooper’s prerogative. Republican governors have exercised the same prerogative.
It is because of America’s time-honored, winner-take-all political system that I believe the court is more likely to uphold the right of the majority party to gerrymander congressional and legislative districts to their party’s advantage.
Further, my sense is that the US Supreme Court is getting weary of the clutter of politically motivated partisan gerrymandering cases every 10 years and will rule that those claims are no longer a matter for the federal courts. That means the individual states will have the exclusive responsibility for the determination of the fairness of partisan gerrymandering in their state.
According to the National Conference of State Legislators, seven states have a commission with the primary responsibility for drawing congressional maps. Other states have advisory commissions. In most states, the party in power in the legislature at the time of redistricting still draws the maps.
I’m betting on a decision today that upholds partisan gerrymandering as one of the spoils of partisan political warfare. A decision that also concludes that any remedy to issues of partisan unfairness in mapmaking should be addressed by the states, not the federal courts.
We shall soon see.
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“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association
Trump’s Reelect Strategy is to Bring Out the Worst in Democrats So That They Will Defeat Themselves May 30, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 5 3:13 pm Trump learned from Roy Cohn In the court of voter opinion, Democrats are just as crooked as Republicans; an “indictment” does not have to be from a grand jury.
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Trump’s Reelect Strategy is to Bring Out the Worst in Democrats So That They Will Defeat Themselves
May 30, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 5 3:13 pm
Trump learned from Roy Cohn
In the court of voter opinion, Democrats are just as crooked as Republicans; an “indictment” does not have to be from a grand jury. A plausible accusation will do.
That’s why Democrats may want to wait until the next report from DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, on the FBI’s handling of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation, before trying to gain a 2020 political advantage by proceeded with impeachment hearings against President Trump.
The probe into FBI surveillance abuses, which began March 28, 2018, is due any day. Then, on top of that 15-month inquiry, Attorney General Barr has just named John Durham, US Attorney for the District of Connecticut, to head an all-new investigation into “spying” on the Trump campaign.
Will these two investigations help Republicans build the case in 2020 for a plausible accusation that senior FBI officials were politically biased in obtaining FISA warrants to spy on the Trump campaign? That they relied on opposition research funded by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC?
That’s all Trump needs politically in 2020. A plausible accusation. An “indictment” against his accusers in the court of voter opinion.
Simply put, Democrats are not going to win an “indictment” fight with President Trump. He is the better street fighter. He cheats. He bites. He hits below the belt. He provokes reckless vengeance.
Donald Trump brings out the worst in his enemies, and then leans back in his chair and props his feet on his desk and watches as they destroy themselves.
Donald Trump’s mentor was Roy Cohn, Chief Counsel to Sen. Joe McCarthy in the 1950s “red scare” era; the Roy Cohn who advised McCarthy to advance unsubstantiated claims of Communist spies in the State Department and homosexuals in the CIA.
It was Roy Cohn who taught Trump to always stay on the offensive; attack, attack, attack. Hit back ten times every time you get hit. Never, ever admit you are wrong. Truth is irrelevant. It’s the hyperbole that people will believe; that the press will print. The only bad publicity is no publicity.
It was Roy Cohn who infamously said, “I bring out the worst in my enemies and that’s how I get them to defeat themselves.”
Democrats likely to hold US House, unless doomed by impeachment
Democrats are risking the US House majority in initiating impeachment hearings against President Trump. Despite a solid majority (235 to 197 with 3 vacancies, including NC 3 and NC 9), and history on their side, their hold on the House is fragile because voters are fed up with Washington.
The good news for Democrats is the history of US House turnover.
According to The Cook Political Report, the U.S. House majority has not flipped twice in a row since 1954 (it flipped in 2018). And, Republicans need to gain 18 pickups when the net partisan shift in the US House has been a single digit number in 7 of the last 8 presidential election years.
On the other hand, there are 31 U.S. House Democrats representing congressional districts won by President Trump in 2016. That number includes 22 newcomers to the U.S. House who defeated Republicans in primarily suburban Trump districts in 2018.
There are three dangers I see for these newcomers in the House Democratic Caucus. One, there is a danger of being lured too far to the left by the fresh-faced liberals in the caucus who could never get elected with their issues in a district carried by Trump.
The second danger I see is that many will invariably make the typical freshman mistake of assuming voters chose them because of their superior intellect and leadership ability rather than because suburban voters, particularly white women, were disgusted with Trump or had given up on their Republican representative.
The third danger? Impeachment hearings.
Democrats already have their hands full for 2020. Whether it’s the 24 Democratic presidential candidates, the limited number of US Senate opportunities or the 31 US House seats held by Democrats in districts Trump won in 2016, Democrats have enough challenges to overcome without adding the challenge of a self-defeating impeachment trial.
Articles of Impeachment voted out of a Democrat-led US House will be seen as a partisan political move just like a party-line vote against the conviction of Trump in a Republican-led US Senate.
Voters are tired of the partisan rancor. They would prefer the Congress to focus on solving the problems of the day like immigration, healthcare, education, entitlements, military concerns, and the economy.
Impeachment hearings play right into President Trump’s 2020 reelection strategy of bringing out the worst in Democrats and letting them defeat themselves.
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John N. Davis
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NC Association of Community College Trustees, Raleigh, NC, April 5, 2019
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
North Carolina Among Most Politically Competitive States Complicated by Divided Government and Fast Growth April 26, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 4 9:13 am NC’s High Degree of Difficulty for Campaigning and Governing Gallup’s annual Political Composition of the 50 US States, based on an aggregate of daily tracking polls across the year 2018, shows that
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North Carolina Among Most Politically Competitive States Complicated by Divided Government and Fast Growth
April 26, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 4 9:13 am
NC’s High Degree of Difficulty for Campaigning and Governing
Gallup’s annual Political Composition of the 50 US States, based on an aggregate of daily tracking polls across the year 2018, shows that Massachusetts is the most Democratic-friendly state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 29 points. The most Republican-friendly state is Wyoming, where the GOP enjoys a 34-point advantage over the number of Democrats.
North Carolina? Right in the middle. A perfectly balanced swing state. Among the Top 10 Most Competitive in the United States, says Gallup. Where 42% of North Carolina voters are Republican/Lean Republican and 41% are Democratic/Lean Democratic.
The Top-10 Most Democratic-friendly states are Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, New York, Maryland, California, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and Washington.
The Top-10 Most Republican-friendly states are Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, Alaska, Alabama, Idaho, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and West Virginia.
The Top 10 Most Competitive States include Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Texas, and Ohio.
Being a Top 10 Most Competitive state means the degree of difficulty for winning campaigns and governing is high compared to the states where one party has a clear advantage. Two other factors are further complicating North Carolina politics, divided government and high population growth.
The National Conference of State Legislatures table of partisan power in the 50 states shows that only two of the Top 10 Most Competitive states have divided state governments, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Both have Republican legislatures and Democratic governors.
And then there’s this: four of the Top 10 Most Competitive states, including North Carolina, are also among the nation’s fastest growing. And 77% of North Carolina’s growth is from in-migration.
Dr. Rebecca Tippett with Carolina Demography in Chapel Hill, reported last December that North Carolina had the fourth largest number of newcomers migrating to the state. Where are they coming from? New York, New Jersey and California are the three leading states. The three leading countries adding to North Carolina’s in-migration newcomers are India, China and Mexico.
The Great Partisan Sorting of the United States
The fifty states are sorting themselves out by party.
In every state but one, Minnesota, both legislative chambers have partisan majorities from the same party. Per the New York Times, “It is the first time in more than a century that only one state has split control of its legislative chambers.”
Other than Minnesota, every state has either Republican majorities in both chambers (30 states) or Democratic majorities in both (18 states). Exception: Nebraska (unicameral/nonpartisan).
There are 22 states where Republicans have all of the power (Governor and legislature), 14 state where Democrats have all of the power, and 13 states where the power is divided, like North Carolina.
So, what can candidates running in 2020 expect in a highly competitive state with divided political power and a fast-growing population? You can expect expensive, close races. Examples:
- In 2016, Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, Democratic nominee for governor, raised $24.2 million to $16.8 million raised by Republican Gov. Pat McCrory, considered the most vulnerable governor in the United States, and won by only 10,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
- In 2016, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall won by only 52% of the vote, a close call considering her GOP opponent only spent $27,241 and won 48% of the statewide vote.
- In 2016, Democrats Auditor Beth Wood and Atty. Gen. Josh Stein, and Republicans Superintendent of Public Instruction Mark Johnson and Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey, won their races with only 50% of the vote plus their small margin of victory.
North Carolina is one of the few states rated most competitive that also has a divided government and high population growth driven by in-migration from around the country and world. It’s where politics is much like playoff hockey. Leave it all on the ice or go home. Go Canes!
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John N. Davis
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NC Association of Community College Trustees, Raleigh, NC, April 5, 2019
“Chock-full of data, historical perspective, candor and wit, John Davis’ For Want of Acquaintance had our audience enthralled and left them thinking about politics, people and “acquaintances” in a whole new way. As always, John Davis is the best, one-stop source for bi-partisan information in the most comprehensive and most entertaining package/presentation for audiences of various levels of political acumen.”
Julie Woodson, President/CEO, NC Association of Community College Trustees
Unprofessional Journalists Inflame Political Incivility by Fueling the Contempt One Faction Has for Another March 7, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 3 12:13 pm Left-Biased New Yorker Equally Unobjective as Right-Biased Fox News On Wednesday, March 6, 2019, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez announced that the Fox News network would not be hosting any of
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Unprofessional Journalists Inflame Political Incivility by Fueling the Contempt One Faction Has for Another
March 7, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 3 12:13 pm
Left-Biased New Yorker Equally Unobjective as Right-Biased Fox News
On Wednesday, March 6, 2019, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez announced that the Fox News network would not be hosting any of the DNC’s presidential debates, based on a just-released article in The New Yorker, THE MAKING OF THE FOX NEWS WHITE HOUSE, arguing that Fox News is “a servile propaganda operation” of the Trump Administration.
Tom Perez said that The New Yorker article, “has led me to conclude that the [Fox News] network is not in a position to host a fair and neutral debate for our candidates.” So, who have the Democrats selected as the networks that can be relied on for fairness and neutrality? CNN and MSNBC have been selected as the first two hosts of the upcoming 12 Democratic candidate debates beginning in June.
Unfortunately for Perez, the Media Bias/Fact Check website rates The New Yorker, CNN and MSNBC as left-biased news sources equally unreliable as Fox News for fairness and neutrality. Or, in the words of the New Yorker article, they are “servile propaganda operations” of the left.
The Left Bias list on the Media Bias/Fact Check website includes CNN, Cosmopolitan, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, MSNBC, New Yorker, Newsweek, and many others. Here is what defines Left Bias:
Left Bias: These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward liberal causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may utilize strong loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes), publish misleading reports and omit reporting of information that may damage liberal causes. Some sources in this category may be untrustworthy.
Thanks to websites like Media Bias/Fact Check, many in the political news media have been caught picking sides. They have been caught being biased toward liberal or conservative causes, “through their story selection.” They intentionally seek to influence their readers or listeners by using words that “appeal to emotion or stereotypes.” They have been caught publishing “misleading reports and omitting reporting of information that may damage their causes.”
Is Fox News biased? No more so than The New Yorker, CNN or MSNBC. All four have been caught fanning the flames of partisan incivility by way of biased reporters and cable TV hosts masquerading as objective professional journalists.
How do you know a journalist is unprofessional? They choose sides. Their reporting intentionally fuels the contempt one faction has for another. Just like the years leading up to the Civil War.
Fifth Cause of the Civil War: “The publication of sectional books”
In my last report, I wrote about the relevance today of two of the five causes of the American Civil War from a book, History of the United States, written in 1876, only 11 years after the Civil War (1861-1865), by John Clark Ridpath, Professor of History at Indiana Asbury University (DePauw University).
Ridpath argued that in addition to the issues of states’ rights and slavery, other causes of the Civil War included the estrangement between the people of the North and the South that led to “questioning each other’s motives, misrepresenting each other, and suspecting each other of dishonesty and ill-will,” along with, “The evil influence of demagogues.”
Ridpath also saw “The publication of sectional books” as a cause of the Civil War:
- “Many works were published … whose popularity depended wholly on the animosity existing between the two sections. Such books were generally filled with ridicule and falsehood.”
- “The manners and customs, language and beliefs, on one section were held up to the contempt and scorn of the people of the other section.”
Publications filled with falsehood and ridicule, whose popularity depended on the animosity between two groups? Sounds exactly like today. Of course, today’s publications include social media, littered with venomous partisan hostility.
Today’s publications include The New Yorker, Fox News, CNN and MSNBC.
News Media Lost the Trust of Americans Long Before Trump
Although many newsrooms like the New York Times and the Washington Post blame President Trump’s “Fake News” label for their loss of credibility and market share, Gallup’s 40-year study of the confidence Americans have newspapers shows a steady and precipitous decline in public trust.
In 1979, per Gallup, 51% of Americans had either a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of confidence in newspapers. “Some” confidence totaled 35%; “Very Little” or “No” confidence was only 13%.
Ten years later, in 1989, those saying they had a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of confidence in newspapers was down to 37%. Ten years after that, “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” was down to 33%.
Today, Americans who have a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of confidence in newspapers has dropped from 51% in 1979 to only 23%. Those who say they have “Very Little” or “No” confidence in newspapers has increased from 13% in 1979 to 40%.
So, it was not Donald Trump who destroyed the credibility of the news media. It was news media professionals who exploited “the animosity existing between [political factions]; who filled their air time and pages “with ridicule and falsehood.”
Voters know that today’s partisan incivility, the #1 cause of the #1 problem facing the nation, “Government, poor leadership or politicians,” is inflamed daily by unprofessional journalists who fuel the contempt one political side has for another. Servile propaganda operations left and right.
Journalists so unprofessional that they can no long hide behind the freedom of the press.
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Carolinas Associated General Contractors, Charleston, SC, January 26, 2019
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Partisan Incivility and Ambitious Demagogues are at the Root of the Nation’s #1 Problem February 22, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 2 8:13 am #1 problem is Government, poor leadership or politicians Americans are divided into angry partisan groups who are so polarized that they do not talk with each other; groups led by ambitious demagogues
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Partisan Incivility and Ambitious Demagogues are at the Root of the Nation’s #1 Problem
February 22, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 2 8:13 am
#1 problem is Government, poor leadership or politicians
Americans are divided into angry partisan groups who are so polarized that they do not talk with each other; groups led by ambitious demagogues claiming moral authority that must not be compromised. It is a time of partisan incivility. The #1 root cause of the nation’s #1 problem.
On Monday, February 18, 2019, Gallup released the results of its latest national survey of public opinion on the nation’s ills under the headline, Record High Name Government as Most Important Problem. The number of Americans naming “Government, poor leadership or politicians” as the nation’s #1 problem is the highest in 55 years, even higher than during the Watergate scandal.
Significantly, Gallup reports that both parties agree on the #1 problem. I repeat: both parties are tied in agreement that the #1 problem facing the nation is “Government, poor leadership or politicians.”
Causes? Of course, loyal Democrats and Republicans blame each other. However, per Gallup, “About half … blame both parties or cite ‘gridlock,’ ‘lack of cooperation.’”
Gridlock. Lack of cooperation. Growing ever worse as more Democrats become liberal and more Republicans become conservative. Per Gallup’s January 8, 2019 national study of partisan trends:
- In 1994, 25% of Democrats described themselves as liberal. Today, “for the first time ever, over half of Democrats (51%) say they are liberal;” only 13% say they are conservative.
- In 1994, 58% of Republicans described themselves as conservative. Today, 73% of Republicans say they are conservative, 22% say moderate, and only 4% say liberal.
Fueling the firestorm of partisan incivility are causes ominously similar to what 19th Century historian John Clark Ridpath saw as among the causes of the American Civil War: “The want of intercourse,” and, “The evil influence of demagogues.”
Causes of the Civil War inflaming partisan incivility today
In the year 1876, only 11 years after the Civil War (1861-1865), John Clark Ridpath, Professor of History at Indiana Asbury University (DePauw University), published History of the United States, in which he listed five causes of the Civil War.
The first two of Ridpath’s five causes are those most often mentioned today when we talk about the War Between the States: a constitutional crisis over the sovereignty of states vis-a-vis the authority of the federal government; and the right to own slaves.
But consider the eerily familiar words Ridpath used in 1876 to describe what he saw as other leading causes of the Civil War:
Quotes from Ridpath’s third cause, “The want of intercourse between the people of the North and the South,” found in Chapter LXII, include:
- “Between the North and the South there was little … interchange of opinion. From want of acquaintance the people, without intending it, became estranged, jealous, suspicious.”
- “They misjudged each other’s motives. They misrepresented each other’s beliefs and purposes. They suspected each other of dishonesty and ill-will. Before the outbreak of the war the people of the two sections looked upon each other almost in the light of different nationalities.”
Sound familiar? Estranged, jealous, suspicious? Questioning each other’s motives? Misrepresenting each other? Suspecting each other of dishonesty and ill-will?
“The evil influence of demagogues”
Quotes from Ridpath’s fifth cause, “The evil influence of demagogues,” include:
- “Many ambitious and scheming men had come to the front, taken control of the political parties and proclaimed themselves the leaders of public opinion. Their purposes were wholly selfish.”
- “The welfare and peace of the country were put aside as of no value.”
But that’s where we find ourselves today. Under the evil influence of demagogues who believe that character assassination in defense of partisan power is no vice.
We have become a nation divided by ambitious demagogues who encourage vengefulness, jealousy and suspicion rather than collaboration and win-win solutions for the nation’s most important problems.
That’s the threshold for partisan incivility. When leaders refuse to collaborate with the other side and compromise to get things done because a win-win solution gives your opponent a win.
In January, voters told Gallup that their top policy priorities for President Trump and the Congress were, in order of importance, the Economy, Health Care Costs, Education, Terrorism, Social Security, Medicare, Poor and Needy, Environment, Immigration, Jobs, Reducing Crime, Drug Addiction, Budget Deficit, Race Relations, Military, Transportation, Climate Change and Global Trade.
But voters know that it is pointless to expect their concerns to be resolved until they, the voters, solve the #1 problem facing the nation: Poor leadership corrupted by partisan incivility.
I fully expect that in 2020 the wise people of America will assume their duty to hold all candidates for public office accountable for today’s partisan incivility, the #1 cause of the #1 problem facing the nation, “Government, poor leadership or politicians.”
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings!
Carolinas Associated General Contractors, Charleston, SC, January 26, 2019
“John Davis is one of the best political speakers around. His sharp insights, anecdotes, wit and graphics are thought-provoking and entertaining. He also has the uncanny ability to cut to the chase for the big picture in the state, the nation and the world.”
Dave Simpson,
President & CEO, Carolinas Associated General Contractors,
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here
Will Democrats Help President Trump and the GOP Out of the Political Hole They Have Dug for Themselves? January 31, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 1 1:13 pm Republicans Cannot Survive 2020 Without White Women & Independents President Trump and the GOP have dug themselves into a hole with suburban white women and independent voters that
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Will Democrats Help President Trump and the GOP Out of the Political Hole They Have Dug for Themselves?
January 31, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 1 1:13 pm
Republicans Cannot Survive 2020 Without White Women & Independents
President Trump and the GOP have dug themselves into a hole with suburban white women and independent voters that will be difficult to climb out of without a little luck and some political gifts from the Democrats in 2020. Gifts like a flawed presidential nominee. Luck like the 2016 “October Surprise” letter from FBI Director James Comey, reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.
Donald Trump never would have won the Oval Office without a gift like Hillary Clinton, the first female nominee of a major party, who lost 53% of all white women to Trump, including 45% of white women with college degrees, per CNN exit polls. Who lost independent voters 46% to 42%.
But in 2018, per CNN exit polls, Democrats won independent voters back, 54% to 42%.
- Independent men flipped from Trump +12 points in 2016 to Democrats +7 points in 2018
- Independent women’s support for Democrats from +5 points in 2016 to +17 points in 2018
Women, overall in 2018, favored Democrats by 59% to 40%. White women, who had supported Trump with 53% over Clinton in 2016, were tied at 49% each for Democrats and Republicans.
College-educated white women, who had given Donald Trump 45% of their votes in 2016, gave Republicans only 39% of their votes in 2018. Independent women: 56% Democratic; 39% GOP.
Republicans simply cannot survive in 2020 without white women and independent voters.
A Republican Party of Aging, White Men Has No Political Future
There are 36 new women in the United State House of Representatives, 35 Democrats and 1 Republican. The total white men in the Democratic Caucus went from 41% to 38%. The total white men in the Republican Caucus went from 86% to 90%. That’s an appalling trendline. A losing trendline.
Here are a couple of the most appalling numbers from the makeup of the new US Congress:
- Republicans: 179 white men, 12 white women, 8 nonwhite men and 1 nonwhite woman
- Democrats: 91 white men, 48 white women, 55 nonwhite men and 41 nonwhite women
So, in a nation where 52% of the electorate are women, where, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center, one-third are nonwhite; a nation where one-in-ten eligible voters in 2020 will have been born outside the United States, where, per the US Census Bureau, Millennials will outnumber Baby Boomers in total population for the first time ever (73 million Millennials to 72 million Baby Boomers), Republican leaders in Washington, DC are becoming older, whiter and more male.
A Republican Party of aging, white men has no political future. The GOP must recruit women and minorities, especially in the suburbs, in order to stay competitive with Democrats, embolden by their takeover of the US House in 2018; driven to retake the White House and US Senate in 2020.
The loss of white women voters, particularly in the suburbs, and independent voters, cost Republicans the US House in 2018, and will cost them the White House in 2020, if fences aren’t mended. And the GOP leader who needs work hardest to mend those fences is President Trump.
Trump’s Average Job Approval After 638 Polls Has Shifted -12 Points
If you want a politically sobering look at President Trump’s job approval after two years in office, forget the latest polls and look at the average of the 638 national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics since his inauguration that asked the question, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing?”
President Trump began his term with an average of 45% of Americans approving of the job he was doing, and 45% disapproving. Today, after 638 national polls, the president’s overall averages are 42% approval and 54% disapproval, a negative shift of -12 points.
The fact that President Trump’s approval has eroded only three points (from 45% to 42%) is politically valuable, showing little erosion among his base. However, the increase in disapproval from 45% to 54% is most significant. The rising disapproval number is where the slippage among suburban women and independent voters is most evident.
President Trump needs a job approval closer to 50% to win a second term, and today’s overall average of 42% approval with a 54% disapproval is a political train wreck waiting to happen.
Of course, President Trump will be pushing his “Promises Kept” campaign. He has time to successfully negotiate trade deals with big markets like China and make some progress on issues like the denuclearization of North Korea and domestic items like immigration and infrastructure.
However, Trump is going to need some luck (Mueller Report? FISA Scandal?) and some political gifts from the Democrats in 2020, like another flawed presidential nominee, in order to reach a 50/50 chance of winning a second term.
Meanwhile, Democrats are drifting dangerously close to a radical agenda so far left that they could very well lose everything they gained in 2018. Which brings me to the title of this report: Will Democrats help President Trump and the GOP out of the political hole they have dug for themselves?
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings!
Carolinas Associated General Contractors, Charleston, SC, January 26, 2019
“John Davis is one of the best political speakers around. His sharp insights, anecdotes, wit and graphics are thought-provoking and entertaining. He also has the uncanny ability to cut to the chase for the big picture in the state, the nation and the world.”
Dave Simpson,
President & CEO, Carolinas Associated General Contractors,
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here
NC Elections a Positive Political Correction as Trump/GOP Seawall Minimizes Democratic Wave November 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 18 1:13 pm $17.5 Million Spent Against Holding, Harris and Budd I had to eat a bit of crow for breakfast on Wednesday morning, after a year-long forecast that “Republicans will hold their majorities in Washington DC
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NC Elections a Positive Political Correction as Trump/GOP Seawall Minimizes Democratic Wave
November 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 18 1:13 pm
$17.5 Million Spent Against Holding, Harris and Budd
I had to eat a bit of crow for breakfast on Wednesday morning, after a year-long forecast that “Republicans will hold their majorities in Washington DC and Raleigh on November 6, 2018.” The GOP did hold the US Senate and the North Carolina General Assembly but lost the US House.
My reasoning all year was that the Democratic “blue wave” was being weakened by vengefulness over the loss of the White House to Donald Trump, and that a bitter wave would not likely breach the Trump/GOP seawall of gerrymandered districts and conservative accomplishments during an era of historic economic expansion.
That reasoning certainly held here in North Carolina, where all 10 Republican-held U.S. House districts were won by Republicans despite a “green wave” of Democratic money. The state’s three most vulnerable Republican US House seats saw $17.5 million spent by Democrats, all to no avail.
- GOP Congressman George Holding (Wake) won despite $3 million spent to defeat him ($1.9 million spent by outside sources; $1.1 million spent by opponent Linda Coleman)
- GOP candidate Mark Harris (Mecklenburg) won despite $9.1 million spent to defeat him ($4.2 million spent by outside sources; $4.9 million spent by opponent Dan McCready)
- GOP Congressman Ted Budd (Forsyth) won despite $5.4 million spent to defeat him ($1.8 million spent by outside sources; $3.6 million spent by opponent Kathy Manning)
However, throughout the United States historically GOP-friendly suburbs in metropolitan areas, including those around southern cities like Houston, Dallas and Atlanta, elected Democrats rather than Republicans to the United State House of Representatives. It was a political correction.
Amy Walter, National Editor of the Cook Political Report, in summarizing the US House results, said, “Democrats wanted this election … to be a total rebuke of Trump. A wipe out of epic proportions all across the country. That didn’t happen. What we saw instead was more of a retrenchment. Red areas stayed red; blue areas stayed blue. The only real movement was in [Republican-held] districts that were purple — districts that had voted for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or had narrowly supported Trump — tipped overwhelmingly to Democrats.”
As David Wasserman, Senior analyst of U.S. House races with the Cook Political Report, noted, “Democrats didn’t flip any district that Trump had carried by 55 percent or more.”
Bottom line: Republican-held swing seats, whether state legislative or congressional, in suburban America, are now almost all in the hands of Democrats. Upper income, highly-educated suburban white voters in large metropolitan areas are now, in the age of President Trump, predictably Democratic.
The newly realigned Democratic coalition as an Electoral College threat to the GOP in the 2020 race for the White House, however, is offset equally by the newly realigned Republican coalition.
White working-class districts that voted for Obama-then-Trump are now becoming predictably Republican. They are joining white red-state conservatives in the South and Midwest to form a solid, Electoral College coalition equal in potential to the Democratic Electoral College coalition of coastal blue states and large states with dominant urban/suburban progressives.
The same political realignment of the political parties is taking place here North Carolina. Republicans are getting wiped out in urban counties. After Tuesday’s elections, Wake County has only one Republican member of its 16-member delegation to the North Carolina General Assembly, Senator John Alexander. For emphasis: Wake County has zero “0” GOP-held seats in the North Carolina House.
In addition to losing almost all legislative seats in North Carolina’s largest urban counties, Republicans also lost seven GOP-held districts carried by Hillary Clinton. A combination of those two categories of losses cost Republicans their supermajorities in both the North Carolina Senate and House.
The North Carolina Senate went from a 35-15 Republican supermajority to a Republican majority of 29-21. The North Carolina House went from a 75-45 supermajority to a 66-54 Republican majority. And, although a loss of supermajorities is politically devastating for Republicans — they now have to reckon with Governor Cooper and his veto power — the fact is that North Carolina is a swing state, with about 40% Republican/Lean Republican and 40% Democratic/Lean Democratic.
That’s why I used the term “political correction” in the title of this report. Blue urban counties voted Democratic, including their once-GOP suburbs. Red rural and ex-urban counties voted Republican. We corrected ourselves politically into the perfectly balanced swing state that we are.
Tuesday was a win-win election for both Republicans and Democrats, nationally and in North Carolina. We are now a state and nation of divided power. A positive political correction.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Speech “Two Waves and a Seawall” … Schedule John Davis to speak at your 2019 meetings.
“Your presentation at the [September 7] 2018 NC CCIM State Conference in Asheville was captivating. As usual, you were able to bring perspective to the upcoming mid-year elections by providing everyone in the room something to think and talk about. Our membership spans a plethora of political viewpoints, and your presentation caters to everyone. Your ability to inform an audience without bias is striking and one of the reasons we continue to invite you back. Thank you for another great political overview for the commercial real estate industry.”
Beverly Keith, 2018 NC CCIM President
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here
Democrats Will Not Regain Power While Bill & Hillary Clinton are Motivating Conservative Women to Vote October 17, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 17 2:13 pm Conservative Women will Vote in Record Numbers Former President and First Lady Bill and Hillary Clinton were back in the news stirring up politically counterproductive controversy last week with Hillary
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Democrats Will Not Regain Power While Bill & Hillary Clinton are Motivating Conservative Women to Vote
October 17, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 17 2:13 pm
Conservative Women will Vote in Record Numbers
Former President and First Lady Bill and Hillary Clinton were back in the news stirring up politically counterproductive controversy last week with Hillary proclaiming in an October 9, 2018 interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that you can’t be civil with Republicans until after you defeat them, and stating in a CBS “Sunday Morning” interview that “No,” her husband’s affair with Monica Lewinski, a 22-year-old White House intern, was not an abuse of power.
Old-school, baggage-laden, out-of-touch establishment Democrats like Bill and Hillary Clinton are the #1 obstacle to the Democratic Party’s political recovery efforts in 2018. They are motivating conservative women to vote in record numbers with insults and dismissiveness. Conservative women don’t think for themselves. You should believe liberal women victims of sexual assault but not Bill Clinton’s conservative sexual assault victims.
Hillary Clinton probably was not thinking about women when she referred to Trump supporters as “a basket full of deplorables” during the 2016 presidential race, but the 53% of white women in North Carolina who voted for Trump took it personally. It motivated them to vote.
The college-educated white voters in North Carolina who voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by four points were probably also offended by Hillary Clinton’s claim that they were “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic – you name it.” It motivated them to vote.
Democrats will never regain power in Washington, DC or Raleigh as long as Hillary Clinton is empowering conservative women to turn out and vote. Hillary continued her insults earlier this year when she told an audience in Mumbai, India that white women who support President Trump are under “a sort of ongoing pressure to vote the way that your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
Hillary Clinton has a hard time accepting the fact that conservative women with or without college degrees can think for themselves. Perhaps that’s why young, progressive women all over the United States have turned down every opportunity to get behind Hillary Clinton’s campaigns for the presidency.
In 2008, young progressive women chose Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential primary. In 2016, young progressive women chose Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton. And in the fall of 2016, young progressive women in large numbers chose to stay home.
Political Parties Have Zero Moral Authority on Sexual Misconduct
Which political party do you believe has a higher degree of moral authority on matters of sexual misconduct? After careful consideration of that question, I have concluded the following: both parties are tied at zero on anything to do with moral authority and sexual misconduct. Zero each. Period.
The great irony of the #MeToo movement is that it has confirmed what women who supported President Trump in 2016 have known all along: Democratic men are in no position to claim moral authority on matters of sexual misconduct over Republican men because they are just as bad.
That’s why Democrats who think that they are going to gain politically with their moral outrage over the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearing are in for a rude awakening. Democrats have zero moral authority with allegations of Republican sexual misconduct as long as they are dismissive of allegations against former president Bill Clinton of rape (Juanita Broaddrick), groping (Kathleen Willey), sexual assault (Leslie Millwee) and exposing himself (Paula Jones).
Believe the women?
The hypocrisy of Democrats using sexual misconduct as a compelling reason for risking the second longest period of economic expansion since World War II by throwing Republicans out of Congress is so outrageous that it is likely to backfire and drive up turnout of conservative women.
Republicans made a big mistake in 1998 by thinking voters would risk the longest period of US economic expansion since World War II over Democratic President Bill Clinton’s affair with a White House intern. Voters didn’t want to risk losing economic prosperity over matters of sexual misconduct when they knew Republicans were just as bad.
Sexual misconduct as a political wedge issue backfired on Republicans in 1998, and it is going to backfire on Democrats in 2018.
Thanks to historic economic expansion, the number of gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, old-school, baggage-laden, out-of-touch establishment Democrats like Bill and Hillary Clinton motivating conservative women to vote in record numbers, along with President Trump’s high job approval among conservatives thanks to a promises kept agenda including a 5-4 conservative US Supreme Court, Republicans will hold their majorities in Washington DC and Raleigh on November 7, 2018.
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Speech “Two Waves and a Seawall” … Schedule John Davis to speak at your 2018-2019 meetings.
“Your presentation at the [September 7] 2018 NC CCIM State Conference in Asheville was captivating. As usual, you were able to bring perspective to the upcoming mid-year elections by providing everyone in the room something to think and talk about. Our membership spans a plethora of political viewpoints, and your presentation caters to everyone. Your ability to inform an audience without bias is striking and one of the reasons we continue to invite you back. Thank you for another great political overview for the commercial real estate industry.”
Beverly Keith, 2018 NC CCIM President
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here