Odds 96% US Supreme Court will be 5-4 Conservative with Two Trump Picks Approved by Republican US Senate October 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 16 7:13 am Only Twice Since 1914 Has a Party Won 80% of US Senate Races Whether embattled US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed or not, political history overwhelmingly
[More…]
Odds 96% US Supreme Court will be 5-4 Conservative with Two Trump Picks Approved by Republican US Senate
October 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 16 7:13 am
Only Twice Since 1914 Has a Party Won 80% of US Senate Races
Whether embattled US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed or not, political history overwhelmingly argues for the likelihood of a 5-4 conservative Court.
A new analysis titled The Senate: How 2018 Sets Up 2020, published on the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics website on September 27, 2018, notes the following compelling facts:
- Only twice in the history of US Senate popular elections (since 1914) has a party won 80% of the US Senate races: the 1932 Franklin Roosevelt landslide election (Great Depression era), and the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide election after President Kennedy’s assassination.
- In order to net two (2) additional seats needed to seize the US Senate majority in 2018, Democrats must win 28 of the 35 contested seats (80%).
- Democrats are disadvantaged in 2018 by the fact that they hold 26 of the 35 US Senate seats being contested, with 10 of the 26 Democrats running in states carried by Trump.
For emphasis: Only twice in the last 104 years (52 election cycles) has a political party won 80% of the US Senate races in any single election year; never in a midterm election year. That means the odds are 96% the US Supreme Court will be 5-4 conservative with two of President Trump’s nominees.
Since 1917, the first Monday in October has been the date for the beginning of the new term of the United States Supreme Court. Today, because the nation is so passionately divided over the suitability of President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the following traditional words shouted by the marshal at the opening of the court have profound meaning:
“Oyez! Oyez! Oyez! All persons having business before the Honorable, the Supreme Court of the United States, are admonished to draw near and give their attention, for the Court is now sitting. God save the United States and this Honorable Court.”
– END –
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Speech “Two Waves and a Seawall” … Schedule John Davis to speak at your 2018-2019 meetings.
“Your presentation at the [September 7] 2018 NC CCIM State Conference in Asheville was captivating. As usual, you were able to bring perspective to the upcoming mid-year elections by providing everyone in the room something to think and talk about. Our membership spans a plethora of political viewpoints, and your presentation caters to everyone. Your ability to inform an audience without bias is striking and one of the reasons we continue to invite you back. Thank you for another great political overview for the commercial real estate industry.”
Beverly Keith, 2018 NC CCIM President
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Two Waves and a Seawall: Democratic Blue Wave Not Likely to Breach the Trump/GOP Seawall Until 2020 August 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 15 10:13 am Labor Day Forecast: GOP Holds Congress and NC General Assembly I see two political waves on the horizon. One, farther out, is a generational wave that is about to
[More…]
Two Waves and a Seawall: Democratic Blue Wave Not Likely to Breach the Trump/GOP Seawall Until 2020
August 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 15 10:13 am
Labor Day Forecast: GOP Holds Congress and NC General Assembly
I see two political waves on the horizon. One, farther out, is a generational wave that is about to sweep the nation of aging leaders in both parties. That’s the wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020. As for the 2018 Democratic blue wave, it’s not likely to breach the Trump/GOP seawall because of historic economic expansion, President Trump’s job approval among Republicans, gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, a bitter, out-of-touch Democratic establishment, and a political backlash against anti-Trump collusion among senior Obama Administration FBI officials.
Why is the generational wave likely to swamp Republicans in 2020? Because every study shows that emerging generations are far more progressive than their parents and grandparents.
Per Pew Research, six-in-ten Millennial voters (born since about 1980) are more likely to vote Democratic, which includes independents who lean Democratic. Among young women, 70% are more likely to vote Democratic.
As to Millennials social and economic policy leanings, per Gallup interviews this summer:
- 51% of 18-29-year-olds view socialism positively (45% view capitalism positively)
- Only 28% of 65+ year-olds view socialism positively (60% view capitalism positively)
About 9-in-10 of America’s young adults live in urban areas, according to Pew, where all voters are 2-to-1 (62%/31%) more likely to vote for Democrats. That fact has growing political significance in North Carolina, now projected to be among the 8 states with ½ of the country’s population by 2040.
Hence, 2020 offers a big opportunity for Democrats to recover politically in Washington, DC and in Raleigh. But first, Democrats have to get rid of their bitter, 20th Century-centric establishment leaders who still see racism, sexism and xenophobia as the primary motives of President Trump’s “deplorable” supporters; Democrats who blame everyone but themselves for losing the White House.
Blue Wave Weakened by Bitterness and Corruption
Bitterness over the loss of the 2016 presidential race to Donald Trump is weakening the Democratic blue wave. Bitterness keeps you focused on the negative. The vendetta.
Hillary Clinton told an audience in Mumbai, India in March 2018 that the white women who voted for Donald Trump did so because of “… an ongoing pressure to vote the way your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
After the mid-July 2018 meeting in Helsinki between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, John Brennan, President Obama’s CIA Director from 2013-2017, tweeted that Trump’s performance “rises to & exceeds the threshold of ‘high crimes & misdemeanors.’ It was nothing short of treasonous.”
After President Trump stated that the April 2018 firing of Andrew McCabe, former Deputy Director of the FBI, was “A great day for Democracy,” Brennan tweeted, “When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known, you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history.”
Bitterness towards President Trump by Democrats like Hillary Clinton and John Brennan is weakening the Democratic blue wave. Also weakening the Democratic blue wave is the growing scandal among Obama Administration DOJ and FBI senior officials caught meddling in the presidential race.
Corrupt DOJ and FBI senior officials discredit the legitimate investigatory work being done by the upright FBI agents and Special Prosecutors like Robert Mueller. Too many FBI senior leaders already fired like FBI Director James Comey, Assistant FBI Director Andrew McCabe, and FBI Chief of Counterespionage Peter Strzok.
Corruption at the DOJ and the FBI renders the results of investigations on the Trump campaign politically useless to Democrats. It’s like offsetting penalties in a football game. One side throws a punch. The other side throws a punch. Offsetting penalties.
Bitterness and corruption are weakening the Democratic blue wave at the same time the Trump/GOP seawall is getting higher and higher.
Trump’s Job Approval Net +8 Over 2017; Base Solid at 85%
Overall, President Trump’s job approval average is 44%; significantly higher than a year ago.
In August 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics website, there were 25 polls conducted nationwide that asked voters whether they approved or disapproved of the job that President Trump was doing. The average of those 25 polls last August was 38.96% “Approve;” 56.16% “Disapprove.”
This August, there have been 22 polls conducted nationally on President Trump’s job approval, showing an average of 43.8% “Approve,” 52.6% “Disapprove.” That’s a net gain of 8 points over 2017.
Now, a positive 8-point swing to 44% job approval might not sound like a reliable predictor of whether Trump will have a positive impact on Republican candidates in 2018. However, consider this: President Obama’s job approval at the same time in 2010 was 45%, according to Gallup, but falling from 53% on Labor Day 2009 to 45% on Labor Day 2010. A negative trendline is ominous.
Obama’s trendline was negative on the eve of his first midterm exam. Trump’s trendline is positive.
Democrats stayed home in big numbers in 2010 because, as the job approval trendline shows, they lost confidence in their own leaders. President Obama made the politically disastrous mistake of putting healthcare over what was most important to voters during the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression; jobs and the economy.
Not only is President Trump’s trendline positive among all voters, but his job approval among Republicans is 85%. If midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, this president is on track to have a favorable score on his midterm exam.
That’s because Trump is all about getting things done.
Seawall Built on Foundation of Disruption & Promises Kept
The foundation of the Trump/GOP defensive seawall is President Trump’s disruptiveness. It’s why his voters elected him. To drain the swamp. The federal establishment, including the Republican establishment. The powerful Obama administration and Hillary Clinton campaign insiders. All who have rigged the federal government to benefit the privileged few; those who have enriched themselves.
President Trump was also elected to disrupt the establishment news media who years ago discredited themselves when they picked a side in the partisan competition for power in the nation’s capital. Discrediting themselves long before Donald Trump went on his “Fake News” tear.
Thanks to a year-and-a-half of disruptiveness and keeping campaign promises by getting things done that his voters wanted, the Trump base is solidly in his corner and likely to turn out this fall to ensure that the President will have two more years of support from a GOP-majority Congress.
From his first day in office, President Trump has been loyal to his base. Signing executive orders overturning President Obama’s executive orders. Eliminating 22 regulations for every one new one. Appointing conservatives to the federal judiciary.
The Keystone pipeline and Dakota Access pipeline. Drilling and mining on public land. Peace through strength military strategy. Defeating ISIS in 90% of its territory.
Leading the successful passage of a bipartisan budget act that included $165 billion for the military. Sanctions against Russia for cyber-attacks and election meddling. Missile strikes against Syria for using chemical weapons against their own people.
Renegotiating defense agreements with the United Nations and trade agreements around the world. Household income at an all-time high.
An historic first, 6.7 million jobs available and 6.3 million unemployed workers. GDP at over 4%. Longest ever bull market run by the S&P 500. Millions of new jobs and record unemployment among Hispanics and African-Americans.
Tax cuts, both personal and corporate. Repatriation of hundreds of billions of dollars of corporate profits parked overseas in foreign banks because of high interest rates in the United States.
So, while bitter Democrats seek revenge, the Trump/GOP seawall is getting higher and higher.
Thanks to historic economic expansion, President Trump’s job approval among Republicans, gerrymandered GOP-friendly districts, a bitter, out-of-touch Democratic establishment, and a political backlash against anti-Trump collusion among senior Obama Administration FBI officials, Republicans are likely to hold their majorities in both the US Congress and the North Carolina General Assembly.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for your Fall 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
In 1987, Donald Trump Paid $94,801 for a Newspaper Ad Critical of Allies for Not Paying Fair Share for Defense July 10, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 14 3:13 pm “The United States is being ripped off.” At 5:35 AM this morning, July 10, 2018, as he prepared to depart for Europe, President Trump tweeted, “Getting
[More…]
In 1987, Donald Trump Paid $94,801 for a Newspaper Ad Critical of Allies for Not Paying Fair Share for Defense
July 10, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 14 3:13 pm
“The United States is being ripped off.”
At 5:35 AM this morning, July 10, 2018, as he prepared to depart for Europe, President Trump tweeted, “Getting ready to leave for Europe. First meeting – NATO. The U.S. is spending many times more than any other country in order to protect them. Not fair to the U.S. taxpayer. On top of that we lose $151 billion on Trade with the European Union. Charge us big Tariffs (and Barriers)!
At 6:42 AM this morning, President Trump reiterated the point in another tweet, “NATO countries must pay MORE, the United States must pay LESS. Very Unfair!
A fight with allies over the fairness of foreign trade deficits and foreign defense costs is a fight Donald Trump has wanted to have for over 30 years.
On September 2, 1987, Manhattan’s real estate developer Donald J. Trump spent $94,801 for a full-page ad in the New York Times, the Boston Globe and the Washington Post with the heading, There’s nothing wrong with America’s foreign and defense policy that a little backbone can’t cure. The subheading read, An open letter from Donald J Trump on why America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.”
Writing in 1987, then about Japan and Saudi Arabia, Donald J. Trump the Manhattan real estate developer used the very language President Trump uses today:
- “Japan and other nations have been taking advantage of the United States.”
- “Why are these nations not paying the United States for the human lives and billions of dollars we are losing to protect their interests?”
Donald Trump ended the letter with the appeal, “Let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom.”
That was the ad that fueled speculation that Donald Trump may be interested in running for political office. The New York Times wrote a story on the same day, September 2, 1987, TRUMP GIVES A VAGUE HINT OF CANDIDACY, stating that Trump told them that he was not interested in running for political office in New York, “but indicated that the presidency was another matter.”
From that day forward, every interview that Donald Trump gave he was asked, Have you ever thought about running for president of the United States? All the big TV interview personalities of the day asked Donald Trump if he had ever thought about running for president. Larry King in 1987. Oprah Winfrey in 1988. Charlie Rose. Barbara Walters. Mike Wallace with 60 Minutes.
What was the common theme in all of Donald Trump’s interviews about global relationships? Per Trump, the United States is being “ripped off” by countries who can afford to pay more.
That’s what President Trump’s trip to Europe is all about. Confronting trading and defense partners about fairness. A conversation that carries great political risks.
Will July Political Risks Abroad Wipe Out June Political Gains?
June was a very good month politically for President Trump and Republicans, considering:
- Most of the economic news in June was positive
- Most of the Supreme Court decisions in June were favorable to Trump (Religion, Labor, Redistricting, Travel Ban)
- Most of Trump’s picks won their primary races
- Trump/Kim summit on North Korean denuclearization was well received globally
- DOJ Inspector General’s report showed inappropriate anti-Trump bias at the FBI
July is off to a great start for President Trump politically with the opportunity to appoint another member of the U.S. Supreme Court upon the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy.
But this month, July, is full of political risks for the President and his party.
Taking on foreign countries, as the president is doing during this trip to Europe, over trade disputes and the cost of global defense is high-risk politics. And then there are the ongoing matters of denuclearization of North Korea and Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. The border.
As for President Trump, a fight with allies over foreign trade deficits and foreign defense costs is a fight he has been preparing for ever since he spent that $94,801 in 1987 for that full-page newspaper ad with the subheading that read, An open letter from Donald J Trump on why America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.
As to whether he is prepared for his meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin next Monday, July 16, President Trump told an audience at a rally in Montana last week, “I’ve been preparing for this stuff my whole life.”
We shall soon see.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY – 20% OFF! Save 20% on your annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report today. Subscribe online for only $196 or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
North Carolina General Assembly Maps Now Fixed for Fall Races with Major GOP Advantage in Friendly Districts June 29, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 13 7:13 am Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering Still the Law of the Land North Carolina Republicans will begin the fall state legislative races with a major advantage in the number of friendly districts,
[More…]
North Carolina General Assembly Maps Now Fixed for Fall Races with Major GOP Advantage in Friendly Districts
June 29, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 13 7:13 am
Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering Still the Law of the Land
North Carolina Republicans will begin the fall state legislative races with a major advantage in the number of friendly districts, all thanks to this week’s U.S. Supreme Court rulings upholding the standard for fairness established by Democrats during the 20th Century.
The Democratic standard for fairness? Extreme partisan gerrymandering.
So, are the North Carolina maps finally fixed for fall 2018 races? Yes.
As of Thursday, June 28, 2018, an 8-1 U.S. Supreme Court ruling secured North Carolina’s legislative maps as currently drawn for the fall. Per the Associated Press, “It means the districts used to elect nominees in the May primary should be the ones used in the November general election, and no special candidacy filing periods and elections are required.”
Finally, it’s done. Advantage Republicans.
Liberal Daily Kos Says New Districts Almost as Bad for Democrats as Old
So, just how big is the Republican advantage among the 170 state legislative districts in 2018?
For starters, the GOP has a 35-15 Senate supermajority, but only needs 26 wins for majority control. It is virtually impossible to find 11 opportunity districts for Democrats to flip in the Senate to take the majority. Ending the GOP supermajority with a net gain of 6 Senate seats is a more reasonable goal.
Democrats face the same practically insurmountable challenge on the House side, where the GOP enjoys a 75-45 supermajority. Republicans only need to hold 61 of their 75 seats to keep majority control. Finding 16 opportunity districts on a Republican-drawn map needed for a Democratic majority is virtually impossible. Whereas, ending the GOP supermajority only takes a net gain of 4 House seats.
Per an April 16, 2018 study by Daily Kos, a liberal blog and internet forum, Thanks to Backdoor GOP Gerrymander, North Carolina’s New Maps Are Almost as Bad as the Old Ones, “North Carolina’s state Senate has the ninth-strongest GOP lean in the country, while its state House ranks fourth—and first among potentially competitive chambers.”
Noting that President Trump carried the state by 50.5% to Hillary Clinton’s 46.8%, the study’s author, Jeff Singer, points out that the net difference in the total seats won by both candidates under the new maps versus the old maps in North Carolina is, “exactly zero seats.”
“Breaking the GOP’s veto-proof three-fifths supermajorities in either chamber is still going to be a major challenge for Democrats,” concludes Jeff Singer with the Daily Kos, “Much less actually gaining control of the legislature.”
Reuters Says Minnesota Only State where Democrats Can Flip Legislature
A new 10-state study by Reuters [that includes North Carolina] of legislative turnover opportunities, released June 16, 2018, draws the following conclusion: “Only one state, Minnesota, has enough Republican-held districts won by Clinton to flip a legislative chamber.”
The value of using Republican-held districts won by Clinton as a measure of opportunities for Democrats can be seen in the 2017 Virginia House of Delegates election results, where Democrats flipped 15 seats from Republicans. However, 14 of the 15 were carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Reuters combed through 1,500 legislative districts in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin, looking for seats held by Republicans from districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Only Minnesota proved promising.
Thanks to the GOP takeover of two-thirds of the legislative chambers in 2010, Republicans throughout the nation seized the opportunity to gain an advantage through extreme partisan gerrymandering. North Carolina Republicans, who had not had a majority in both the state Senate and House of Representatives since 1896, took full advantage of the opportunity.
NCFEF Analysis Confirms Few Republicans in Clinton Districts
In North Carolina, per Jonathan Kappler, Executive Director of NCFEF and one of the state’s leading authorities on legislative districts, there are only a handful of seats held by Republicans from districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Kappler writes:
- “According to our data, there are three NC Senate districts won by Hillary Clinton and are currently GOP-held: Senate 19 (Meredith), 27 (Wade), and 41 (Tarte).”
- “No NC Senate districts won by President Trump that are currently Democratic-held.”
- “4 NC House districts won by Hillary Clinton and are currently GOP-held: House 25 (Collins, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), House 57 (Blust, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), House 104 (Dulin), and House 105 (Stone).”
- “5 NC House districts won by President Trump and are currently Democratic-held: House 7 (Bobbie Richardson), 12 (George Graham), 21 (Larry Bell, but it’s an open seat race as he’s retiring), 66 (Goodman), and 116 (Turner).”
Nationally, Democrats are understandably encouraged by flipping 43 state legislative seats to their side of the aisle since President Trump took office. However, 43 seats are not an indication of a “wave.”
Wave election years are distinguished by the large number of incumbents defeated.
Example: Republicans flipped a net of 680 legislative seats in 2010, defeating 492 Democratic incumbents (only 15 GOP incumbents lost), and winning 729 Open Seats to 449 for the Democrats.
- In 2010, a total of 1,733 new state legislators were elected in the United States, with Republicans electing 1,266 newcomers to 467 Democratic newcomers.
- Republicans enjoyed a net gain of 20 legislative chambers in 2010, from 33 to 53.
That’s what a wave election year looks like. Incumbents defeated in big numbers.
Thanks to extreme partisan gerrymandering by Republicans after the 2010 census, the opportunities for Democrats to defeat incumbents, especially in North Carolina, are severely limited in 2018.
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. Another conservative Supreme Court nominee likely. All building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Meanwhile, as of Thursday, June 28, 2018, an 8-1 U.S. Supreme Court ruling secured North Carolina’s legislative maps as currently drawn for the fall. Advantage Republicans.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY – 20% OFF! Save 20% on your annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report today. Subscribe online for only $196 or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Solid Conservative U.S. Supreme Court Now Probable in 2018 Following Justice Anthony Kennedy’s July Retirement June 27, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 12 4:13 pm U.S. Supreme Court Justice Kennedy to Resign July 31 U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy made a surprise announcement today of his intention to retire July 31, opening the opportunity for
[More…]
Solid Conservative U.S. Supreme Court Now Probable in 2018 Following Justice Anthony Kennedy’s July Retirement
June 27, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 12 4:13 pm
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Kennedy to Resign July 31
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy made a surprise announcement today of his intention to retire July 31, opening the opportunity for President Trump to solidify a conservative advantage on the nation’s highest court this year.
Kennedy, nominated by President Ronald Reagan in 1988, was often the court’s swing vote. He cast the deciding votes on many controversial decisions including the constitutional right to same-sex marriage, and Citizens United, the decision giving unlimited free speech rights to groups making independent expenditures during political campaigns.
It was also Kennedy who often sided with conservatives, like many of the rulings this month:
- June 4: Colorado baker, who refused to make a wedding cake for a gay couple, has a constitutional right to have his religion treated with impartiality by government
- June 18: “Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering” cases in Wisconsin and Maryland “punted” back to lower courts
- June 21: OK’d sales taxes on online purchases (NC losing $400 M yearly per NCRMA)
- June 25: “Extreme Partisan Gerrymandering” case in NC “punted” back to lower courts
- June 26: Pro-life crisis pregnancy centers cannot be forced to provide information re: taxpayer-funded abortions
- June 26: Trump’s Travel Ban on 7 mostly-Muslim countries upheld on president’s right to secure borders
- June 27: Can’t force government employees to pay union dues
The U.S. Supreme Court currently consists of a four-member liberal wing (Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayor), and four conservatives (Alito, Roberts, Thomas, Gorsuch).
Kennedy, 81-years-old, is leaving the court at about the average age of retirement from the court, which is 79-years-old. Two other justices are near or past the average retirement threshold: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal, 84, and Stephen Breyer, also a liberal, 79.
If Republicans hold on to the U.S. Senate majority in 2018, President Trump may have an opportunity to replace a liberal member of the court with a conservative. Regardless, the social and political consequences of a solid 5-4 conservative court will be as disruptive as it will be transformative for decades to come.
A conservative U.S. Supreme Court will be able to trump all liberals on lower courts.
Conservative Supreme Court Will Trump Lower Court Liberals
As important as the Supreme Court is, they only hear 70-80 cases a year out of 7,000-8,000 requests, issuing 50-60 opinions. Most of the heavy lifting at the federal level is done in the U.S. District courts (673 district judgeships) and the U.S. Courts of Appeals (179 circuit judgeships), where 350,000-400,000 cases are being managed at any given time.
According to The Brookings Institution:
- In 2009, at the beginning of the Obama administration, Republican appointees held 56% of the federal circuit court judgeships to only 36% held by Democratic appointees (8% vacant)
- In 2016, after 55 confirmed Obama nominees, Republican appointees made up only 42% of the federal circuit court judgeships to 53% held by Democratic appointees
- In January 2009, 10-of-13 U.S. Circuit Courts of Appeals had Republican-majority appointees to only 1 Democratic-majority court; no majority on 2 courts
- In January 2016, only 4-of-13 U.S. Circuit Appeals courts had Republican-majority appointees to 9 Democratic-majority circuit courts
Now, with the resignation of Justice Kennedy and a solid 5-4 conservative bloc on the court likely, the next Supreme Court will routinely thwart the lower court rulings of liberal Democratic appointees.
Kennedy’s resignation makes it all the more imperative that both parties make winning the majority in the U.S. Senate their most important goal this fall.
Although historically, the first midterm elections during a new presidential administration do not favor the party in the White House, the GOP structural advantage in the U.S. Senate races in 2018 will be a formidable challenge for Democrats:
- Democrats are defending 25 seats, 10 in states Trump won
- Republicans are defending 9 seats, 8 in states Trump won
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. Another conservative Supreme Court nominee likely. All building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Without a doubt, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the election year.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
JUNE 19 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea June 19, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 11 11:13 am World is safer thanks to two of the “worst leaders” It’s hard to believe, but it was only a week ago, Tuesday, June 12, 2018, that President Trump and
[More…]
JUNE 19 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea
June 19, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 11 11:13 am
World is safer thanks to two of the “worst leaders”
It’s hard to believe, but it was only a week ago, Tuesday, June 12, 2018, that President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made history by shaking hands in Singapore. People throughout the world are encouraged that there will be denuclearization and reunification of the Korean Peninsula.
As to political value, the event was spectacular. Even liberal news sources like The Atlantic published positive stories about the handshake seen around the globe.
Peter Beinart, contributing editor at The Atlantic and an associate professor of journalism and political science at the City University of New York, in a story titled, Why Can’t Democrats Give Trump Credit on North Korea?, wrote, “So, painful as it is, Democrats should give Trump the credit that, in this rare instance, he is due. In Singapore, two of the worst leaders in modern history met. And they made the world a safer place.”
Satisfaction with direction of country driving up Trump’s job approval
Bold leadership on the world stage along with record economic expansion and low unemployment at home are having a positive impact on President Trump’s job approval, a powerful predictor of the midterm elections referendum on the White House. Per Gallup’s June 18 national survey release:
1) Satisfaction with U.S. Direction Reaches 12-Year High, showing increase since Mar/Apr in positive views among voters, especially Republicans (up 14%) and Independents (up 11%)
a. Satisfaction credited to second longest economic expansion in U.S. history
b. Record low unemployment (3.8% in May)
c. President Trump’s negotiations with North Korea2) Trump Job Approval at 45%, (Tying Personal Best):
a. Trumps previous 45% rating occurred first week after inauguration
b. 90% of Republicans approve of Trump’s leadership
c. 42% of Independents approve; 10% of Democrats approve
Political Implications: The successful summit with North Korea along with record economic expansion and low unemployment are adding height to the Trump-GOP defensive seawall against an ever-weakening Democratic political wave.
Political Bombshell: “We’ll stop it,” Peter Strzok replied
NOTE: I only look at the political implications of events, leaving the policy debates to others. With that said, the political value of the FBI’s lapse of integrity at the highest levels of leadership disclosed in the Inspector General’s report cannot be overstated. It will be used throughout 2018 to politically discredit any and all FBI investigations.
On Thursday, June 14, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz released his report on the FBI and DOJ’s handling of the Clinton email investigation, giving President Trump and the GOP everything needed to politically discredit Robert Mueller’s investigation into the Trump campaign.
Select quotes from the report:
“(Trump’s) not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” asked FBI agent, Lisa Page. “No. No he’s not. We’ll stop it,” Peter Strzok replied.
Peter Strzok’s text “is not only indicative of a biased state of mind but, even more seriously, implies a willingness to take official action to impact the presidential candidate’s electoral prospects.”
“We have profound concerns about the volume and extent of unauthorized media contacts by FBI personnel that we have uncovered.”
“We identified instances where FBI employees improperly received benefits from reporters, including tickets to sporting events, golfing outings, drinks and meals, and admittance to nonpublic social events.”
The Inspector General’s report not only gives President Trump a means to politically discredit Robert Mueller’s investigation as a “Witch hunt,” but also a means to discredit the liberal media as “Fake news.” Trading FBI leaks for tickets to “sporting events, golfing outings, drinks and meals” plays right into President Trump’s strength in discrediting his opponents in the mainstream news media.
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
JUNE 11 UPDATE: New SCOTUS Decision, North Korea, IG’s Report Thursday, Only One Woman Can Destroy Trump June 11, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 10 4:13 pm U.S. Supreme Court OK’s conservative Ohio procedure for purging voters In another big judicial win for Republican election law reformers, the US Supreme Court ruled 5-4 today, June
[More…]
JUNE 11 UPDATE: New SCOTUS Decision, North Korea, IG’s Report Thursday, Only One Woman Can Destroy Trump
June 11, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 10 4:13 pm
U.S. Supreme Court OK’s conservative Ohio procedure for purging voters
In another big judicial win for Republican election law reformers, the US Supreme Court ruled 5-4 today, June 11, 2018, that an Ohio policy for purging the state voter registration rolls of those who do not vote over a six-year period does not violate the rights of minorities, poor people and others who more often favor Democratic candidates, as claimed by plaintiffs, including the ACLU.
Per today’s Washington Post, nationally, “about 17.6% of Democrats missed the last three elections, compared to about 10.3% of Republicans.” That’s about 6 million more Democrats than Republicans who did not vote in 2012, 2014 or 2016.
The two key steps in Ohio’s six-year procedure for purging voter rolls are:
- Registered voters who miss voting for two years are sent voter registration confirmation notices and given four additional years to reply.
- If they do not reply or vote during the next four years, they are removed.
Justice Anthony Kennedy, the court’s swing vote, joined the four conservatives in the 5-4 decision. Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito said that although the Ohio procedure may not be ideal, the only matter before the court was whether it violates federal law. “It does not,” concluded Alito.
POLTICIAL IMPLICATIONS: Increases turnout advantage for GOP in 2018.
Last Monday’s big win for conservatives was the U.S. Supreme Court 7-2 decision in favor of a Colorado baker who refused to make a wedding cake for a same-sex couple because of his Christian convictions. The court stated that the religious beliefs of the baker were not treated with impartiality and neutrality by the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, in violation of his constitutional rights.
June 11-15: Trump-Kim Historic Summit 9 PM Tonight! IG Report Thursday
At 9 PM tonight, Eastern Standard Time, it will be 9 AM in Singapore, the hour that President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The stakes could not be higher.
POLTICIAL IMPLICATIONS: If President Trump does succeed in the denuclearization of North Korea during the coming months, his job approval will likely reach 50% by Labor Day, adding great height to his seawall of success in defense against the threat of a Democratic wave in November.
COMING THURSDAY, JUNE 14: DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on the mishandling of the Hillary Clinton email probe is due Thursday (President Trump’s birthday).
Last Tuesday, fired former Deputy Director of the FBI, Andrew McCabe, sought immunity from prosecution for his testimony before a U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on how the FBI handled the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. McCabe’s petition for immunity signals that other senior officials at the FBI during the Obama Administration abused positions of authority.
Look for widening probes into Obama Justice Department leaders, including North Carolina’s own Loretta Lynch, U.S. Attorney General 2015-2017, the first African American woman in that role.
POLITICIAL IMPLICATIONS: This issue has the potential of energizing a GOP red wave, offsetting the highly touted Democratic blue wave. At the very least, the IG report will give President Trump enough Twitter ammunition to discredit Mueller’s investigation throughout the fall elections.
There is only one woman who can bring down the Trump Administration
On Monday, June 4, former President Bill Clinton opened old wounds with his defensive answers to a reporter questions about whether, considering today’s #MeToo movement, he adequately apologized to Monica Lewinski for exploiting her sexually when she was a 21-year-old White House intern.
Bill Clinton’s history of sexual exploitation, including allegations of criminal abuse (rape claimed by Juanita Broaddrick), became the talk of the TV/Radio chattering class, who also renewed questions about Hillary Clinton’s role in enabling her husband to get away with exploiting women.
Clearly, Democrats and had hoped to bring down the Trump Administration with ads about the President’s extramarital affairs with porn stars and Playboy bunnies. Unfortunately, there are too many Democrats like Bill Clinton and Anthony Wiener, along with hundreds of others exposed by the #MeToo movement like Harvey Weinstein, to claim a partisan moral high ground on sexual abuse.
Ironically, the #MeToo movement validated the claims of women who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, despite his history of disrespecting women, because they knew that many Democrats were as bad.
Last Tuesday, June 5, Harvey Weinstein, leading Democrat fundraiser, pleaded not guilty to charges of rape and sexual assault. He has been accused by over 70 women of sexual misconduct.
POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRUMP’S AFFAIRS: None. There is only one woman who can destroy the Trump presidency over extramarital improprieties: First Lady Melania Trump.
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. North Korean denuclearization and reunification with South Korea. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
JUNE 4 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea June 4, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 9 4:13 pm U.S. Supreme Court rules “hostility” towards Christians unconstitutional in favor of Colorado baker who refused to bake wedding cake for gay couple The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-to-2 today
[More…]
JUNE 4 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea
June 4, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 9 4:13 pm
U.S. Supreme Court rules “hostility” towards Christians unconstitutional in favor of Colorado baker who refused to bake wedding cake for gay couple
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-to-2 today in favor of a Christian baker in Lakewood, Colorado, who refused to make a wedding cake for a same-sex couple because of his religious convictions. The court stated that the religious beliefs of the owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop, Jack Phillips, were not treated with impartiality by the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, which ruled earlier that he had discriminated against the gay couple.
Here are key points:
- Colorado Civil Rights Commission violated the baker’s First Amendment religious rights by “showing hostility” towards the baker’s religious beliefs;
- Colorado Civil Rights Commission was “neither tolerant nor respectful of his religious beliefs,” and instead, “showed animus” towards the baker, thereby violating the baker’s rights.
Liberal justices Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan joined the four conservative justices, along with Justice Anthony Kennedy, a swing vote, in the 7-2 decision.
Liberal justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor were the two dissenting justices.
FOR EMPHASIS: The U.S. Supreme Court DID NOT RULE that a baker has a constitutional right to refuse service to a gay couple. The court ruled that Christian bakers have a constitutional right to have their religious beliefs treated with impartiality and neutrality by the government.
Writing for the court, Justice Anthony Kennedy said that the larger issue of the constitutionality of the right to refuse a service to a gay couple based on religious convictions “must await further elaboration” in the courts. Many such cases are pending.
POLITCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Politically, this is a major win for religious conservatives who have long felt that the federal judiciary and other government officials have not respected their right to faith-based business practices.
Democrats and Republicans can use this issue to motivate their base to vote this fall in the 34 U.S. Senate races (25 Democratic seats; 9 Republican seats). The next class of U.S. Senators is very likely to have an opportunity to confirm another U.S. Supreme Court justice.
There is real, long-term political danger for Democrats to be associated with the “impermissible hostility” and “animus” of the far-left wing of the party (including judges) towards people of faith. That is especially true in North Carolina, ranked by Gallup as 8th in the nation in the percentage of residents who say they are “Very Religious.”
June is busiest month of the year for primaries and SCOTUS decisions
June is the busiest month of the year when it comes to the political elections calendar, with 17 states holding primary races. By comparison, there are none in July. However, 16 states have primaries in August. There are five more in September. Here is the June list:
- June 5: California, Montana, N Jersey, Alabama, S Dakota, Mississippi, N Mexico and Iowa
- June 12: North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Maine
- June 19: Washington, DC
- June 26: Utah, Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma
June is the final month of this term of the U.S. Supreme Court. Major decisions are coming.
SCOTUS to decide Trump travel ban and “extreme partisan gerrymandering”
Other major U.S. Supreme Court decisions coming in June:
- EXTREME PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING: Is it constitutional for the legislative majority in a state that is roughly 50%/50% Republicans and Democrats to draw their party a 75%/25% “extreme partisan advantage” in the number of friendly congressional districts?
- TRUMP TRAVEL BAN: Do presidents have the constitutional authority under U.S. immigration laws to ban travelers from countries where terrorist activity is heavily concentrated, even if all the countries banned are predominantly Muslim?
Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. North Korean denuclearization and reunification with South Korea. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
But, that could all change in June.
Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea Talks May 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 8 11:13 am Hang on to your hats, June is going to be a wild ride! Hang on to your hats, ladies and gentlemen, June is going to be a wild political ride. Every
[More…]
June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea Talks
May 31, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 8 11:13 am
Hang on to your hats, June is going to be a wild ride!
Hang on to your hats, ladies and gentlemen, June is going to be a wild political ride.
Every single week in June, major U.S. Supreme Court decisions will be announced. Every Tuesday in June, primaries will be held. Globally significant talks between the U.S. and North Korea are in June.
In June, we will likely see more indictments resulting from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government during the 2016 presidential race. But will the June indictments be close enough to home to have any political fallout?
I doubt it. After all, Mueller already announced in April that President Trump was not a criminal target in the investigation. And then there is this: Jared Kushner’s full security clearance was restored (after 7-hours with Mueller team) in May. Ivanka Trump’s full security clearance was restored in May.
We will also likely see a report in June by Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz critical of how the FBI handled the Hillary Clinton email investigation. That report will give President Trump all the Twitter ammunition he needs to discredit the Justice Department and the FBI, offsetting any political fallout from the Russian collusion probe.
By the way, a hearing has been scheduled by the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee for June 5 at 10 AM titled, “Examining the Inspector General’s First Report on Justice Department Decisions Regarding the 2016 Presidential Election.”
May was a Positive Month for the Trump Referendum
May turned out to be a great month for the president. Here are some of the highlights:
- Gallup announced that 67% Americans say now is good time to find good job (only 45% during Obama Administration and 47% during GW Bush Administration)
- CBS News poll showed 68% of Americans credit Trump for economy
- Trump’s Real Clear Politics 44% “Job Approval” (respectable/trending upward)
- Unemployment dropped to 3.9%, lowest in 17 years
- African-American and Hispanic unemployment set record lows
- Gina Haspel sworn in as first woman to head CIA
- US opened embassy in Jerusalem
- Three Americans were released from North Korean prisons
- American Josh Holt was released from prison in Venezuela
- Jack Johnson (1878-1946), first black heavyweight champ, was pardoned
- Signed executive orders rolling back civil service protections
- Porn star Stormy Daniels and her lawyer lost credibility
And of course, the U.S.- North Korean Summit on denuclearization and Korean reunification was put back on track for June 12. We will also see the busiest month for primaries in June.
Busiest month of the year for primaries and SCOTUS decisions
June is busiest month of the year when it comes to the political elections calendar, with 17 states holding primary races. By comparison, there are none in July. However, 16 states have primaries in August. There are five more in September. Here is the June list:
- June 5: California, Montana, N Jersey, Alabama, S Dakota, Mississippi, N Mexico and Iowa
- June 12: North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Maine
- June 19: Washington, DC
- June 26: Utah, Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma
June is the final month of this term of the U.S. Supreme Court. Major decisions coming in June include everything from abortion and religious freedom to reapportionment and President Trump’s travel ban. Decisions that will impact the fall elections, especially the U.S. Senate races.
SCOTUS to decide Trump travel ban and LGBT rights to a wedding cake
Major U.S. Supreme Court decisions coming in June deal with privacy rights to cellphone data, state and local sales taxes on internet purchases, and when it’s permissible for a state to purge inactive voters from the registration rolls.
Here are a few decisions coming in June of interest to most North Carolinians:
- EXTREME PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING: Is it constitutional for the legislative majority in a state that is roughly 50%/50% Republicans and Democrats to draw their party a 75%/25% “extreme partisan advantage” in the number of friendly congressional districts?
- LGBT RIGHTS VS. RELIGION: Is it constitutional for a conservative Christian baker to refuse to make a wedding cake for same-sex couple because of religious convictions?
- TRUMP TRAVEL BAN: Do presidents have the constitutional authority under U.S. immigration laws to ban travelers from countries where terrorist activity is heavily concentrated, even if all the countries banned are predominantly Muslim?
The biggest political prize of 2018 is the U.S. Senate majority (now a 51/49 Republican), because the U.S. Senate will decide the next U.S. Supreme Court justice. Every U.S. Senate candidate running in the fall 2018 races will be forced to stake themselves out the Supreme Court’s decisions coming in June.
The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.
But that could all change in June.
Politically, June is on track to becoming the most consequential month of the midterm election year.
Hang on to your hats!
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Democratic Wave Weakened by Bitterness and Corruption as Trump Builds Seawall of Success May 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 7 1:13 pm Trump’s Seawall of Success Grows as Democratic Enthusiasm Wanes On Monday, April 30, when President Moon Jae-in of South Korea was complimented with the suggestion that his role in reunifying Korea and
[More…]
Democratic Wave Weakened by Bitterness and Corruption as Trump Builds Seawall of Success
May 1, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 7 1:13 pm
Trump’s Seawall of Success Grows as Democratic Enthusiasm Wanes
On Monday, April 30, when President Moon Jae-in of South Korea was complimented with the suggestion that his role in reunifying Korea and denuclearizing North Korea merited the Nobel Peace Prize, he replied, “It’s really President Trump who should receive it; we can just take peace.”
If President Trump does succeed in the denuclearization of North Korea during the coming months, his job approval will likely reach 50% by Labor Day, adding great height to his seawall of success in defense against the threat of a Democratic wave in November. A seawall already well-fortified by major regulatory and tax reform, economic expansion, jobs/wages growth, and favorable foreign trade deals.
The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of success. Remember, midterm elections are a referendum on the White House.
So, which will be higher? The wave or the seawall?
My sense is the Democratic wave is losing energy. Too many Democrats poisoning the party’s political potential with bitterness over having lost the presidential campaign to the likes of Donald Trump and his “deplorable” supporters. Bitterness exposing liberal hatred and bigotry. Elitism.
Hillary Clinton is weakening the Democratic wave with claims that white women who voted for Trump don’t think for themselves. They voted for Trump because of an “ongoing pressure to vote the way your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should,” said Hillary.
Hillary Clinton is an old-school Democrat living in the past, still carrying tattered protest signs from the 1960s. Disagree with them and you are branded. Racist. Sexist. Xenophobic. Homophobic.
The politics of bitterness is costing Democrats young voters, critical to their political wave.
The results of a new Reuter/Ipsos poll of voters ages 18-34, released April 30, 2018, found that the enthusiasm among millennials for the Democratic Party has dropped by 9 points over two years, to 46%. They don’t like Trump. And, they are still far more progressive than conservative. But if they are not enthusiastic about Democrats in 2018, they will stay home. No millennials, no Democratic wave.
Democrats’ reliance on Trump bashing to energize the wave is not working. For every one Stormy Daniels story on Trump there are 10 stories of Democrats exposed by the #Me Too movement.
And, unfortunately for Democrats, indictable offenses soon to be revealed by the investigations of Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz are just as likely to expose officials with the Obama Administration and associates of the Clintons as anyone associated with President Trump. Offsetting political penalties.
Why Korean Denuclearization and Unification is Likely
Meanwhile, Trump is on the verge of accomplishing what every US president since Harry Truman wanted to accomplish. Peace in Korea. Here are the keys to why he is likely to succeed:
• China’s 21st Century goal is to be the world’s greatest economic and military superpower.
• China cannot achieve global superiority without the wealth to build the infrastructure, wealth that comes from favorable trading relationships with wealthy nations like the US.
• North Korea’s threat of nuclear war with the US and its allies was undermining China’s ability to focus on creating wealth. That’s why China joined the economic sanctions imposed on North Korea by the United States and the UN earlier this year.
• Crippling economic sanctions against an already desperately poor, hermit country is leaving North Korea farther and farther behind the rest of the world, including Asian neighbors.
• In a world of high-speed Internet commerce and communications, where the new “space race” is artificial intelligence, North Korea cannot even provide electricity to its people.
That’s why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un traveled secretly in an armored train on March 27, 2018, to Beijing, for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping about denuclearization. That’s why one month later, on April 27, 2018, Kim Jong-un became the first member of the North Korean Kim dynasty to step across the border into South Korea.
Waiting at the border, was South Korean President Moon Jae-in. They shook hands. It was a handshake heard around the world. A handshake President Trump is being credited with initiating.
Soon, Kim Jong-un will agree to abandon North Korea’s nuclear program, end the seven decades of sabre rattling against the United States, and begin the process for reunification with South Korea. The entire world will celebrate and join South Korea and China in aiding North Korea’s economic recovery and assimilation with the rest of the world.
Success in Korea, economic optimism and offsetting scandals/indictments combine well with Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers to build a solid seawall of success in defense of an ever-weakening Democratic wave in the 2018 elections.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political ReportJohn N. Davis
SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.”
Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018