Honoring Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and All Who Were Murdered for Daring to Register Americans to Vote 1968 KKK Trial for the Murder of Vernon Dahmer NOTE: Fifty years ago, from March 11-15, 1968, I skipped college classes to sit through the murder trial of Cecil Sessums, a Baptist preacher who participated in a
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Honoring Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and All Who Were Murdered for Daring to Register Americans to Vote
1968 KKK Trial for the Murder of Vernon Dahmer
NOTE: Fifty years ago, from March 11-15, 1968, I skipped college classes to sit through the murder trial of Cecil Sessums, a Baptist preacher who participated in a KKK firebombing raid on the country home and store of Vernon Dahmer near Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Dahmer, an African American, was murdered simply because he dared to register black voters. Sessums, who testified that he prayed that God would bless the raid, was the first white man convicted of murdering a black man by an all-white male jury in Mississippi. Three weeks later, on April 4, 1968, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was shot dead in Memphis, Tennessee. This account of the trial, originally published on February 10, 2011, is republished today on the 50th anniversary of Dr. King’s assassination in memory of all who were murdered for the right to vote.
Special Report April 4, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 6 11:13 am
Note: Originally Published February 10, 2011
The Murder of Vernon Dahmer for Registering Blacks to Vote
There they were! I knew that I had kept them. Finally, after an hour and a half of digging through a lifetime of dusty boxes in the attic last Sunday night I found the newspaper articles I had clipped almost 43 years ago from the Hattiesburg AMERICAN, the daily paper in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, the county seat of Forrest County. I carefully unfolded each of the eight faded and brittle articles one at a time, reading and remembering:
- Thursday, Jan. 25, 1968 11 charged with murder and arson
- Friday, Mar. 8, 1968, Pitts pleads guilty to Dahmer charges; Anticipated state’s witness faces life on murder count plus long arson sentence
- Monday, Mar. 11, 1968, Selection of jury begins for Sessum murder trial
- Tuesday, Mar. 12, 1968, Jury completed for Sessum murder trial; pistol removed from purse carried by defendant’s wife
- Wednesday, Mar. 13, 1968, Car brought into trial testimony; FBI agent says bullet-marked auto belonged to one defendant
- Thursday, Mar. 14, 1968, Pitts puts finger on Sessum, other Klansmen; Names seven he said accompanied him in fatal fire-bombing raid on Dahmer place
- Friday, Mar. 15, 1968, Defense tries hard to discredit Pitts; … the verdict.
On the night of January 10, 1966, Vernon Dahmer, 58, an African American businessman who served as President of the Forrest County NAACP, was murdered when his house and store in a rural community just north of Hattiesburg were firebombed by a raiding party of 13 members of the Ku Klux Klan. Dahmer, along with his wife and three children, escaped from their burning home by breaking a back bedroom window and climbing out, running to the barn to hide.
Before escaping the inferno, Dahmer ran into the blazing front living room and returned fire with his shotgun through the picture window. He was burned about the head, arms, and upper body.
He died the next day.
Why did the KKK want Dahmer dead? Because a year earlier he had placed a voter registration book in his store and was working to get black voters to sign up. That was it. He had the audacity to register black voters.
Throughout the 20th century, a variety of means to keep blacks from voting were enacted into law, from literacy tests to a $2 poll tax. Pictured here is a receipt for a $2.00 POLL TAX, FOR THE YEAR 1936. The relative buying power of $2.00 in 1936 is $31.30 today. Can you imagine how many people you know who would vote today if they had to pay $31.30?
However, the most intimidating means of discouraging blacks from voting was the threat of violence routinely made by the White Knights of the Ku Klux Klan.
The Trial of Klansman Cecil Victor Sessum, the “Little Preacher”
I was a student at William Carey College in Hattiesburg in 1968 when the first defendant, Cecil Sessum, was tried for the murder of Vernon Dahmer. I cut classes the entire week of March 11 – 15, 1968 to attend the trial. I sat in the crowded gallery in the courtroom of the Forrest County Courthouse, just behind the sketch artists from the national TV news.
Cecil Victor Sessum was the 32-year-old Exalted Cyclops of Klavern No. 4, White Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. His fellow Klansmen called him “Little Preacher,” because he was a preacher. The list of defendants included Sam Bowers, Imperial Wizard of the White Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. Bowers was involved in the murder of the three civil rights workers near Philadelphia, Mississippi in 1964: Michael Schwerner, Andrew Goodman and James Chaney.
Security was very tight. Heavily armed deputies were at every door, both outside the courthouse and inside the courtroom. Everyone who wanted to enter had to be searched.
Monday: Jury Selection, the White Defendant, and the Colored Deceased
Monday, the first day of the trial, was devoted to jury selection. The district attorney was very careful in asking potential jurors if they could blind themselves to the fact that “the defendant is white and the deceased was colored.” Throughout the day, those called for jury duty were dismissed for many reasons including health or financial hardship, a work-related issue, or because they did not believe in capital punishment.
On Tuesday, we realized just how important those daily searches of spectators were when we found out that the wife of Cecil Sessum had tried to enter the courtroom that morning with a 38-caliber pistol in her purse. The judge ordered that the incident be kept quiet until the jury was selected, for fear that it would taint the selection process. We found out about Mrs. Sessum’s 38 Special mid-afternoon, after a jury of all white men was impaneled.
Tuesday: Mrs. Dahmer Testifies; Shattering Glass and Acrid, Choking Smoke
The first witness for the prosecution was Mrs. Vernon Dahmer. I will never forget her testimony as long as I live. She told of the sound of glass shattering in the living room at about 2 o’clock in the morning, the thud of something hitting the floor, and then the bright blast against the darkness as the gasoline exploded again and again in the front rooms. The fire burned the utility lines. There was no electricity; no phone. Just the roar of the fire … the acrid odor of the choking smoke … the sound of shots being fired … the three children.
She said her husband came into the bedroom and knocked the window out with the butt of his shotgun and helped her and the children out. They all ran to the barn, “to get away from the light of the fire,” she said in a voice tense with emotion as she relived the details of the night the Ku Klux Klan burned her home and killed her husband.
Mrs. Dahmer testified for several hours. She told how the family eventually made it to the home of Vernon Dahmer’s sister down the road. His sister drove them to Forrest General Hospital.
Vernon Dahmer’s wounds did not appear to be life threatening. However, what no one could see was the damage the hot toxic smoke had done to his lungs. He died that afternoon.
Throughout it all, Cecil Sessums, the “Little Preacher,” stared at Mrs. Dahmer with indifference … chewing gum. He knew the odds were good that an all-white male jury would not likely convict a white man for killing a black man; not in south Mississippi.
After Mrs. Dahmer’s dramatic testimony, the court was adjourned for the day. The jury was ordered locked up for the night for their own protection.
Wednesday: Bullet-riddled Car; Revolver with Melted Plastic Grips
On Wednesday, an FBI agent testified about a bullet-riddled car found the morning after the firebombing “several miles from the Dahmer place” with both front tires flat. The car was traced by the FBI to one of the Klansmen indicted for Dahmer’s murder. Apparently, Dahmer had disabled the car when he was returning fire with his shotgun through the picture window.
Other FBI agents testified about plastic jugs, some with small amounts of liquid in them … liquid that smelled like gasoline. They told of finding a revolver with melted plastic grips, about a Halloween mask found out by the road and expended shotgun shells scattered all about … including in the smoldering ruins where the front of house once stood.
Pathologists took the stand to state in their expert opinion that Dahmer had died as a result of damage to his lungs sustained while he returned gunfire in a room filled with superheated toxic smoke. But no one had seen the faces of any of the raiders, no one except the other raiders.
Thursday: Billy Roy the Rat Says Sessum Threw Five Jugs of Gasoline
The surprising development in the case came Thursday when Billy Roy Pitts, a 24-year-old member of the raiding party, testified as a witness for the prosecution in exchange for a sentence of life in prison without parole instead of the death penalty, which was automatic in a murder case at that time in Mississippi. The surprise was that he had not been shot by a sniper.
Pitts had been in federal custody before the trial, his whereabouts a closely guarded secret. He was escorted to the court house that morning under heavy guard. Throughout his testimony, all doors to the courtroom were blocked by well-armed deputies.
Pitts identified the eight members of the raiding party assigned to the house, while others were assigned to burn down Dahmer’s store. He told about the careful planning and said that the raid had been ordered by Sam Bowers, the Imperial Wizard of the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. As to Cecil Sessums involvement, Pitts testified that he saw Sessum throw five jugs of gasoline through the picture window in the front of Dahmer’s house.
Friday: The Defense Rests; the All-White Male Jury Renders the Verdict
The next day, Friday, the defense attorneys tried to discredit Pitts by introducing witnesses who said that Pitts had been bragging that the FBI would give him anything we wanted to squeal. They also tried to create doubt about whether Sessum could have participated in such a raid by having friends and family, including his mother, testify about what a fine, Christian man he was.
By the end of the day Friday, the cases had been made by both the prosecution and the defense. At about 5 o’clock, the all-white male jury left the courtroom to decide the fate of a white man accused of killing a black man because he was registering black voters at his country store.
Two hours later the jury returned. “We the jury find the defendant guilty as charged.” Sessum chewed gum as the judge sentenced him to Parchman Penitentiary for the rest of his natural life.
The reporters scattered to find the nearest pay phone. I watched the stunned crowd for awhile, most of whom just sat there in silence, then took the city bus back to campus. Although I had been shaken by the week’s testimony, I really believed that something good would come from the sacrifice Vernon Dahmer and his family made just so black folk could vote.
It was Friday, March 15, 1968. Two weeks later, in the early evening of April 4, 1968, on the balcony of the Lorraine Motel in Memphis, Tennessee, a rifle shot rang out ………
– END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.” Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018
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Transformative Generational Wave on Political Horizon March 22, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 5 3:13 pm More Independent than Partisan Yes, a political wave is looming on the horizon. But it’s more generational than partisan. If it has a color, it’s more an independent purple than a Democratic blue. A big, purple wave that is certain
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Transformative Generational Wave on Political Horizon
March 22, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 5 3:13 pm
More Independent than Partisan
Yes, a political wave is looming on the horizon. But it’s more generational than partisan. If it has a color, it’s more an independent purple than a Democratic blue. A big, purple wave that is certain to crash ashore and wash away aging, inflexible leaders in both parties. But when?
According to a study of North Carolina registered voters conducted by Dr. Michael Bitzer, Professor of Politics and History at Catawba College, as of Monday, February 5, 2018, Millennials (Born 1981-1997) and Generation Z (Born 1998 and after) are now 32% of the state’s 6.8 million registered voters, surpassing Baby Boomers as the state’s largest cohort on the voter rolls.
- Millennials/Generation Z (Born since 1981): 32% of NC registered voters
- Baby Boomers (1945-1965): 31% of NC registered voters
- Generation X (1966-1980) are 27% of NC registered voters
- Greatest/Silent Generation (Before 1945): 10% of NC registered voters
Millennials have a far more independent streak than older generations, contributing to the growth of Unaffiliated voters, who now outnumber Republicans for the first time in state history.
- Baby Boomers: Democrat (42%), Republican (34%), Unaffiliated 24%
- Millennials: Unaffiliated (40%), Democrat (35%), Republican (24%)
As to race and ethnicity, per Dr. Bitzer’s 2017 year-end analysis, Baby Boomers are White (74%), Black (20%), Other (6%), while Millennials are White (61%), Black (25%), Other (13%, primarily Hispanic and Asian voters).
Looking only at White Baby Boomers, 44% are registered as Republican, 30% are registered as Democrats and 26% are registered as Unaffiliated. Looking only at White Millennials, 44% are registered Unaffiliated, 36% are registered as Republican and 19% are registered as Democrat.
Looking only at African-American Baby Boomers, 89% are Democratic and 9% Unaffiliated. Conversely, African-American Millennials are 74% Democratic and 23% Unaffiliated (3% GOP).
Other key findings by Dr. Bitzer include the fact that about 8-in-10 of the youngest generations of North Carolina voters live in urban or suburban counties.
- Baby Boomers by County: Urban (50%), Suburban (23%), Rural (26%)
- Millennials by County: Urban (61%), Suburban (18%), Rural (21%)
Studies have consistently shown that urban voters are overwhelmingly more likely to favor Democrats over Republicans, whereas suburban voters are split and rural voters predictably Republican.
Most Independent, Diverse and Educated Generation
As to how North Carolina voter registration trends compare to the nation, Pew Research Center released a national study on March 16, 2018 titled, How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago. This study shows dramatic differences in the generations:
- Baby Boomers: 72% White (non-Hispanic), 11% Black, 11% Hispanic, 5% Asian
- Millennials: 56% White (non-Hispanic), 21% Hispanic, 13% Black, 7% Asian
- Baby Boomers: 22% men and 20% women have bachelor’s degrees
- Millennials: 29% men and 36% women have bachelor’s degrees
A new study of the nation’s registered voters was released March 20, 2018, by the Pew Research Center, based on more than 10,000 interviews in 2017. Here are key comparisons between today’s politically dominant Baby Boomers and the emerging younger generations of voters:
- Millennials are the most independent (44%) of any generation (Baby Boomers, 32%)
- Democrats have a nearly two-to-one advantage among Millennials (59% to 32%) when adding in the “lean Democratic” independent voters
- Baby Boomers are evenly divided (48% Democratic, 46% Republican) when adding “leans”
- A large majority of Millennial women (70%) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared to only 23% of millennial women who favor Republicans
- Overall, 56% of all women are inclined to support Democrats; 37% prefer Republicans
- Millennial men are 49%-to-41% Democrat over Republican, as compared to Baby Boomer men, who are 49%-to-43% Republican over Democrat
- White Millennials are 52%-to-41% Democrat over Republican, as compared to white Baby Boomers who are 53%-to-41% Republican over Democrat
“Waves don’t always crash evenly.”
The most sensible political statement I’ve heard that defines this election cycle is from Jonathan Kappler, Executive Director of the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, who told an audience of political activists on Monday, March 5, 2018, “Waves don’t always crash evenly.”
Here’s why that statement is important to understanding political waves:
Does it matter if a wave crashes in an urban, majority-minority Democrat-friendly district where the African-American Democrat is going to win, wave or no wave?
Does it matter if a wave crashes in a predominantly white, solid Republican rural district in Western North Carolina where there are not enough Democrats for a wave to threaten the white Republican?
Winning and losing in almost all Congressional and legislative races today is all about how the districts are drawn. The few toss-up races are about which party shows up to vote. Enthusiasm.
According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal national survey, conducted March 10-14, 2018, voters with the least interest in the midterm elections are both Democrat-friendly groups: Young voters (18 to 34-year-olds), with only 37% interested, and Independents voters, also 37% interested.
If Democrats fail to turn out younger voters and Democratic-leaning independent voters, they have no chance of taking back the legislative majorities in Washington, DC or Raleigh.
The NBC polls shows the highest level of interest in voting this fall is among Clinton voters at 64%, followed by Democrats at 60% and white voters with college degrees at 59%, who favor Democrats by big margins. Unfortunately for Democrats, most of the Clinton voters live in urban congressional and legislative districts already dominated by Democrats.
Next in the line of enthusiasm in the NBC poll is the 65-year-old-and-older voters at 58%, who tend to favor Republicans, the Trump voters at 57% and all Republicans at 54%. If Republicans do not match Democrats’ enthusiasm this fall, they risk losing the toss-up races … federal and state. That’s what happened in Virginia last year. Democrats had the enthusiasm advantage. Republicans didn’t show up.
My argument all along during this election cycle has been that a good economy, gerrymandered districts and offsetting scandals/indictments means low turnout which favors the status quo.
Yes, a transformative generational wave is looming on the political horizon. But will it crash ashore in 2018, threatening Republican majorities? The answer to that depends on whether Millennial voters stay home, like they did in 2016, because their only political options are appalling choices.
Do they back Republicans who support Donald Trump, with his chaotic management style, personal insults and porn star scandals, all the while, ignoring issues most important to young voters, like income inequality, gun laws, healthcare and healing the nation’s racial and ethnic divides?
Do they back Democrats who champion DC establishment Democrats, like Hillary Clinton? Those who enabled Donald Trump by rigging the federal government for privileged insiders and exploiting their public trust for personal gain while ignoring those who were struggling to make ends meet?
A transformative generational wave is looming on the political horizon.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report 
John N. Davis
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.” Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
New Study of North Carolina Partisan Bias Confirms Most Legislative Seats are Republicans to Lose March 8, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 4 2:13 pm Friendly GOP NC Senate Districts Outnumber Democrats 27 to 16 A new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political
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New Study of North Carolina Partisan Bias Confirms Most Legislative Seats are Republicans to Lose
March 8, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 4 2:13 pm
Friendly GOP NC Senate Districts Outnumber Democrats 27 to 16
A new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political research organization NCFEF (NC FreeEnterprise Foundation), confirms a convincing GOP advantage in the 2018 legislative seats that in my judgment argues well for ongoing Republican majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House for the remainder of the decade.
In the 50-member North Carolina Senate, Republicans have 27 friendly seats compared to only 16 friendly seats for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state Senate is 26 seats, Republicans can lose all seven seats considered “Competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
NCFEF rates the 50 NC Senate seats as follows:
- 15 NC Senate Districts as “Strong Democratic”
- 1 NC Senate District as “Lean Democratic”
- 7 NC Senate Districts as “Competitive”
- 8 NC Senate Districts as “Lean Republican”
- 19 NC Senate Districts as “Strong Republican”
A complete list of the NC Senates districts with commentary by Jonathan Kappler, NCFEF Executive Director, can be found here on the NCFEF website.
Friendly GOP NC House Districts Outnumber Democrats 64 to 42
In the 120-member North Carolina House of Representatives, Republicans have 64 friendly seats compared to only 42 for the Democrats. As a simple majority in the state House is 61 seats, Republicans can lose all 14 seats considered “competitive” by NCFEF and still hold the majority.
NCFEF rates the 120 NC House seats as follows:
- 37 NC House Districts as “Strong Democratic”
- 5 NC House District as “Lean Democratic”
- 14 NC House Districts as “Competitive”
- 8 NC House Districts as “Lean Republican”
- 56 NC House Districts as “Strong Republican”
A complete list of the NC House districts with commentary by Jonathan Kappler, NCFEF Executive Director, can be found here on the NCFEF website.
Can a “Stormy” Daniels Wave Threaten the GOP Political Moorings?
Of course, Democrats are hoping for a giant wave energized by White House political ineptitude, like the sex scandal involving President Trump and porn star Stormy Daniels, to come crashing down on the Republican shore this November, tearing Republicans away from their most secure moorings.
Yes, sex scandals can cause destructive political waves. However, the great lesson of the presidential campaign of 2016 is if you’re going to start a wave based on the sexual conduct of your Republican opponent, you better be sure your party leaders do not include those like former president Bill Clinton, impeached for lying about his affair with a 21-year-old White House intern.
Exploiting his political power for sexual favors was mere sport for Bill Clinton throughout his terms as governor in Arkansas and president. Yet, Democrats continue to revere Bill Clinton. A Democratic wave based on the sexual misconduct of President Trump will merely trickle to shore.
And besides, legislative district maps are like seawalls built to withstand political waves.
That’s why the new study of the partisan bias of each of the state’s 170 legislative districts, released today by the non-partisan political research organization NCFEF, is so significant. It confirms a convincing GOP advantage in the 2018 legislative seats that in my judgment argues well for ongoing Republican majorities in the North Carolina Senate and House for the remainder of the decade.
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Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“We were fortunate to have John Davis as our guest speaker during our 33rd Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held in Raleigh at the PNC Arena. Comments from many of our 1,600+ guests indicated they not only found John’s presentation very informative, but also thought-provoking.” Steve Stroud, NAI Carolantic Chairman, Raleigh; January 22, 2018
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Most NC Congressional and Legislative Races are Republicans to Lose After SCOTUS OK’s GOP Maps February 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 3 12:13 pm Maps + Money = Majority The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on Tuesday, February 6, that all but 11 of the 170 Republican-drawn legislative districts were allowed to
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Most NC Congressional and Legislative Races are Republicans to Lose After SCOTUS OK’s GOP Maps
February 9, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 3 12:13 pm
Maps + Money = Majority
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on Tuesday, February 6, that all but 11 of the 170 Republican-drawn legislative districts were allowed to stand for 2018, dashing the hopes of Democrats for taking back either the North Carolina Senate or House this year. The 11 districts, redrawn by the federal court’s “special master,” are in only six of the state’s 100 counties: Cumberland, Guilford, Hoke, Bladen, Sampson and Wayne. All others remain as drawn by Republicans.
Candidate filing begins Monday, February 12, 2018. Unless there is judicial intervention, North Carolina Republican-friendly districts will once again greatly outnumber the Democratic-friendly districts for the 2018 elections. As NC Democratic Party spokesman Robert Howard said about the Supreme Court’s ruling in today’s News &Observer, “The battlegrounds are largely the same.”
Republicans have a 35/15 supermajority in the North Carolina Senate; a 75/45 supermajority in the North Carolina House. This week’s US Supreme Court ruling means that state Democrats will likely shift their political priorities to breaking the GOP supermajorities, rather than breaking the majorities.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D-Nash) has raised $2.4 million for Break the Majority, a state Democratic Party political action fund for legislative candidates. And, Democrats can count on a substantial amount of support from out-of-state groups.
Eric Holder, former US Atty. Gen. during the Obama administration, has formed the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, and plans to invest millions of dollars in legislative campaigns in a dozen states, including North Carolina, “in an effort to block Republicans from single-handedly drawing congressional maps after 2020,” said the New York Times on February 6, 2018.
But, Republicans can count on outside money too. On Saturday, January 27, 2018, the conservative billionaire Koch brothers and their allies announced that they plan to spend $400 million during the midterm elections to help the GOP keep their majorities in Washington, DC and other state capitals. Much of that money will be spent by Americans for Prosperity, a conservative organization known for their effectiveness in getting North Carolina Republicans out to vote.
It strikes me that a $400 million political commitment from conservative billionaires means that Democrats can forget gaining a financial advantage in 2018 through liberal billionaires.
I have used a simple formula to forecast likely legislative majorities in North Carolina for many election cycles: Maps + Money = Majority. This week’s ruling by the US Supreme Court, allowing all but 11 of 170 GOP-drawn maps to stand for the 2018 legislative races, along with the likelihood that GOP candidates will have all the money they need to run effective campaigns, means Republican majorities are likely during the 2019-2020 sessions of the North Carolina General Assembly.
Economic Expansion Above 5% Means Presidential Approval Up by Fall
Democrats are counting on a traditional midterm election during which a negative referendum on the White House will drive their voters out and cause Republicans to stay home in discouragement. Unfortunately, a truly historic era of economic expansion appears to be unfolding. If it does, President Trump’s job approval will rise, along with voter optimism, and the Democratic wave will fall.
Consider recent economic news from Reuters. On February 1, 2018, Reuters reported that the Atlanta Federal Reserve had revised its forecast, saying that the US economy is on track to grow at 5.4% (1st Q GDP). On February 8, 2018, Reuters reported that US jobless claims dropped to a near 45-year low, and that low unemployment and wage growth could be expected.
Historic tax and regulatory reform legislation, which has already stimulated 300 companies to give over 3 million Americans bonuses or raises, has triggered the repatriation of hundreds of billions of dollars from foreign banks for new and expansion projects in the United States.
And then there is today’s economic news that the “Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018,” a bipartisan $400 billion bill that provides increased defense funding and disaster relief, was passed in the wee hours of the night by the US Senate (71-28) and House (240-186). The bill was signed by President Trump this morning, who Tweeted, “This bill is a BIG VICTORY for our military, but much waste in order to get Dem votes. Fortunately, DACA not included in this bill, negotiations to start now!”
Midterm political pressure is forcing Congress to get things done, likely including passing the much-anticipated immigration reform legislation in March and an infrastructure spending bill soon after.
All this positive economic and political activity will eventually drive up the President’s job approval. As to what will drive Trump’s approval numbers down, I do not believe that you count on scandals and indictments. Too many officials in the Clinton campaign camp and the Obama Justice Department with offsetting political exposures to allegations of inappropriate, biased activity.
So, a lot is at stake in the 2018 elections: 435 US House races will decide the MAJORITY PARTY, including 13 US House races in North Carolina. Another 34 US Senate races that will decide the MAJORITY PARTY in the US Senate, critical, because the US Senate decides the US SUPREME COURT. There are 36 governors up for election in 2018, and 87 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers … including the North Carolina Senate & House.
Thanks to US Supreme Court rulings on GOP-drawn maps in North Carolina, along with an expanding economy, offsetting political scandals in DC, a growing list of Trump Administration accomplishments and plenty of conservative billionaires to make sure their narrative is well-told, odds favor the GOP holding the MAJORITY PARTY status in Washington, DC and Raleigh.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report
Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
“Felt so fortunate to hear Mr. Davis’ take on the political climate – it was eye-opening, and perspective changing, even for someone who’s involved in this world day-in and day-out.” Leadership North Carolina, November 8, 2017
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Political Feats, Economic Optimism and Offsetting Scandals Mean Likely High Midterm Marks for Trump January 25, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 2 11:13 pm Trump’s #1 POLITICAL Feat is Discrediting Detractors with Tweets The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held on November 6. His job evaluation will greatly influence voter turnout and the
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Political Feats, Economic Optimism and Offsetting Scandals Mean Likely High Midterm Marks for Trump
January 25, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 2 11:13 pm
Trump’s #1 POLITICAL Feat is Discrediting Detractors with Tweets
The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held on November 6. His job evaluation will greatly influence voter turnout and the degree of partisan advantage in Washington, DC and Raleigh.
As to likely outcome, Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers combines well with economic optimism and offsetting scandals to suggest high marks this fall.
This conclusion runs counter to history. In midterm elections, the party of the president almost always loses seats in congress. Usually, because the president’s base voters stay home in protest.
Democrats took back the Congress after President Bush’s 2006 midterm elections because Republicans stayed home in protest over how fellow Republicans were spending money.
Republicans took back the US House and won the North Carolina House and Senate majorities after President Obama’s 2010 midterm elections because Democrats stayed home in protest over Democrats putting healthcare reform ahead of jobs and the economy during the recession.
However, the unique political feats noted below will likely spur a solid turnout of Trump’s base.
First and foremost, President Trump’s #1 most important political feat during his first year in office is using his Twitter account to discredit his detractors, particularly liberal news journalists.
- President Trump has 46.9 million followers of his Donald J. Trump Twitter account
- President Trump sent over 2,500 tweets during his first year in office
Using daily Tweets and friendly cable news sources like Fox News, President Trump has completely disrupted the “Golden Age” of White House news coverage, historically dominated by a small number of liberal-leaning TV networks and big city daily newspapers.
In recognizing President Trump as #1 Media Power Player of the year in 2017, Broadcasting & Cable magazine cautioned readers against assuming that Trump “governs solely by whim,” concluding that he is “the most compelling change agent this business has seen.”
Nothing sends Trump voters into a frenzy of roaring approval more than his calling out the “Fake News” media. That’s why his #1 most important POLITICAL feat likely to drive up turnout of the GOP base this fall is using Twitter to define himself a winner and his detractors as losers.
In a close second, reversing President Barack Obama’s executive orders.
Trump’s #2 POLITICAL Feat is Reversing Obama’s Executive Orders
President Trump’s #2 most important political feat is reversing President Obama’s executive orders. Trump signed 30 executive orders in his first 100 days. An above-average 58 in his first year.
Think Keystone XL pipeline, the Dakota Access pipeline, and allowing mining and drilling on public lands. Trump’s EPA regulatory rollbacks are the largest in the agency’s 47-year history.
President Trump boasts eliminating 22 regulations for every one new regulation. He overturned the Affordable Care Act’s contraception coverage mandates by signing a Religious Liberty order.
All federal government policies, from immigration laws and infrastructure projects, to education, the regulatory environment and our relationships with foreign countries, are being reoriented from liberal to conservative ideas for progress by President Trump’s executive orders.
Executive orders have given Trump bragging rights to the lowest number of illegal border crossings in 17 years, and a 42% increase in arrests of illegal immigrants in the US.
Likely coming soon is a bipartisan immigration bill that will include spending on “The Wall” and resolving the DACA issue (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals). Other immigration issues likely to get the conservative stamp of approval this year are the visa lottery and chain migration.
President Trump has shifted the nation’s military strategy to the “Peace through strength” policy advocated by conservatives for centuries. Trump unleashed the nation’s military might against ISIS, taking back over 90% of their territory. He has backed down rogue nations like North Korea with the caution to never test his willingness to protect the homeland by any means.
Other than discrediting the “Fake News” media, nothing is making the Trump base voter happier that seeing him replace President Obama’s liberal executive orders with conservative orders.
Trump’s #3 POLITICAL Feat is Optimism
Finally, there is reason for optimism for peace and prosperity here at home and around the world.
Two recent events signal the potential for diffusing the threat of North Korean nuclear missiles aimed at the United States and its allies like South Korea.
First, on New Year’s Day, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced his interest in reunification talks with South Korea. Second, North and South Korean athletes have announced that they are marching together under one flag during the opening ceremonies at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, to be held February 9-25, 2018.
Perhaps the Trump Administration’s economic sanctions on North Korea are working as intended. Perhaps it is China’s calming hand keeping Kim Jong Un from destroying trading relationships with wealthy markets like the US. Whatever the reason, President Trump will get much of the credit if the threat of nuclear missiles is defused. And, optimism will grow.
President Trump has created a surge in US economic activity by embracing all things conducive to private-sector growth. From ending regulatory overreach to major tax reform, Trump’s economic agenda has created what the New York Times calls, “a wave of optimism” that will spark investment in 2018 in new projects throughout business and industry.
During President Trump’s first year, we have already seen the Dow exceed 26,000 for the first time, and US unemployment fall to 4.1%, a 17-year low. We have seen the President take the lead in the passage of a major tax reform bill that cut corporate rates from 35% to 21%.
Thanks to tax reform, millions of employees are receiving bonuses and raises. Plus, much of $2.8 trillion parked abroad by S&P 500 companies due high tax rates, will be repatriated and invested here in the United States. New jobs with decent benefits. Jobs that pay well.
Apple announced that they are repatriating $252 billion ($55 billion in 2018), planning 20,000 new US jobs, and investing $10 billion in their data centers in 7 states, including North Carolina.
Look for a bipartisan infrastructure bill this year, adding to investments in job opportunities, along with new foreign trade deals, all of which will likely drive up optimism for global peace and prosperity.
With optimism for peace and prosperity comes rising job approval numbers for President Trump.
Of course, all these feats and optimism for peace and prosperity may be dashed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller in his investigation of whether Trump campaign officials colluded with Russians to influence 2016 elections. On the other hand, Obama Justice Department officials are under suspicion for possible collusion with the Hillary Clinton campaign to get FISA warrants authorized so they could snoop on the Trump camp. Offsetting scandals.
Last week, Republican US Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley referred the author of the Trump-Russia dossier to the Justice Department to investigate for possible criminal charges because of “potentially false statements about the distribution of claims from the dossier.”
And, on the criminal scandal front, we also discovered last week that the FBI has been discreetly investigating the Clinton Foundation for months to see if any pay-to-play deals were made on behalf of foundation donors by the State Department while Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State.
What we are seeing today in Washington, DC is the politics of mutually assured destruction. Both sides battling with offsetting scandals. Indictments are just as likely for associates of the Clintons or officials with the Obama Administration as for anyone associated with President Trump.
The first midterm exam on President Trump will be held in November. Trump’s incomparable skill at defining himself a winner and his detractors as losers combines well with economic optimism and offsetting scandals to suggest high marks and a favorable result for Trump and the GOP this fall.
END –
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Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.
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New Year Begins with GOP Good Fortune While Mental Fitness Issue Weakens Potential for Democrats January 10, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 1 2:13 pm Lucky Draw Saves Virginia GOP House of Delegates If the first 11 days of 2018 is any indication of the good fortune Republicans can expect during President Trump’s first midterm elections,
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New Year Begins with GOP Good Fortune While Mental Fitness Issue Weakens Potential for Democrats
January 10, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 1 2:13 pm
Lucky Draw Saves Virginia GOP House of Delegates
If the first 11 days of 2018 is any indication of the good fortune Republicans can expect during President Trump’s first midterm elections, the GOP will surely maintain the majority in both the US Senate and House, and in the North Carolina Senate and House.
Case in point: In the first week of January, a tied state house race in Virginia was decided by the luck of the draw at the Virginia Board of Elections, making the Virginia House of Delegates a 51-49 Republican majority. That means the next speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates and all committee chairs are likely Republicans, rather than a Democrats. The Virginia Senate is 21-19 Republican.
Nationally, the luck of the draw in Virginia means that Republicans keep their 67-32 advantage over Democrats in the legislative chambers. There are 32 states, including North Carolina, where Republicans control both legislative chambers. Democrats have 14 such states.
Alabama Mall Cops Save US Senate Republicans
Of course, the biggest lucky break for Republicans last week was the swearing in of Democrat Doug Jones from Alabama to the US Senate, rather than Roy Moore, the Republican. Moore lost the race after it was revealed that he had been banned from the Gadsden, Alabama mall in his early 30s for “inappropriate behavior of soliciting sex from young girls.”
Gallup’s State of the States nation study ranks Alabama #2 most “Conservative” state in the US, and #2 most “Very Religious” state. That’s why a Republican can still win a US Senate race in Alabama if they, like Moore, get thrown off the state Supreme Court twice for refusing to uphold the US Constitution over Ten Commandments monuments and same sex marriage. But, even in Alabama, a Republican cannot win a US Senate race if they get thrown out of the mall for hitting on teenage girls!
Thanks to mall cops, US Senate Republicans avoided the year-long humiliation and exasperating distraction of outcries for Moore’s ouster. Now, they can focus on holding the majority.
A Constitutional Right to Make Political Fools of Ourselves
As Americans, we have a First Amendment right to make political fools of ourselves. And, thanks to President Trump, more Americans than ever before are taking full advantage of that right. Especially liberal Democrats, who are making strategic campaign decisions for 2018 races driven by their bitter vindictiveness over Hillary Clinton’s loss to Donald Trump.
Case in point: allegations that President Trump is mentally unfit to serve as President. The mental fitness issue is hurting the Democrats’ political potential in 2018 state and federal elections.
Unfortunately for Democrats, the mental fitness issue received a big boost this week with the release of Fire and Fury, a political tell-all book claiming that “100% of the people” in the Trump White House are thinking about invoking the 25th Amendment, whereby the president can be removed from office if deemed mentally unfit.
The problem with the book is that it’s too easy to discredit. The author, Michael Wolff, told Savannah Guthrie on NBC’s “Today” show that “100% of the people around the President question his fitness for office.” Then, on Tuesday, January 9, 2018, Wolff told Norah O’Donnell on CBS This Morning, that he did not interview any member of the President’s Cabinet, nor the Vice President.
Pulitzer Prize-winning POLITIFACT wrote, “Fire and Fury [is] a stew of mysteriously sourced dramatic scenes.” Not quite the-shot-heard-around-the-world “Resistance” Democrats were counting on to win a revolutionary overthrow of President Trump and the GOP-led Congress in 2018.
Equally problematic for Democrats is the 25th Amendment itself. It requires the Vice President (a Republican loyal to the President), and a majority of the 24-member Cabinet (Republicans loyal to the President), to vote to remove the President if he is deemed mentally unfit. Not going to happen.
And, the 25th Amendment requires a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress to uphold the decision of the vice president and cabinet. Both have Republican majorities. Not going to happen.
The “mental fitness Democrats” remind me of the “birther Republicans.” Those who questioned President Obama’s natural citizenship. Eventually, most birthers, like Donald Trump, looked so foolish in the absence of credible evidence to back their claim that they discretely dropped the matter.
Perhaps it’s time for the “mental fitness” Democratic crowd to do the same.
Crazy Like a Fox
The biggest mistake President Trump’s detractors are making is judging him by conventional presidential standards. There never has been nor will there ever be anything conventional about Donald Trump.
Trump defeated the Republican and Democratic political dynasties in 2016 because he was unconventional. Because three solid decades of outrageous, politically incorrect behavior virtually guaranteed that he would continue to be that way when he got to the Oval Office. Especially when dealing with privileged and powerful Washington insiders. Like the news media.
So outrageous and politically incorrect that establishment observers think he’s crazy.
He’s crazy all right. Crazy like a fox.
END –
Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report John N. Davis
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“A big, beautiful, Christmas present” At 1:50 am Saturday morning, with Vice President Pence presiding over a Yea 51-Nay 49 vote, President Donald Trump and US Senate Republicans practically assured that a major tax reform bill will be under the GOP’s 2017 Christmas tree, one already piled high with gifts including record Dow Jones averages
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“A big, beautiful, Christmas present”
At 1:50 am Saturday morning, with Vice President Pence presiding over a Yea 51-Nay 49 vote, President Donald Trump and US Senate Republicans practically assured that a major tax reform bill will be under the GOP’s 2017 Christmas tree, one already piled high with gifts including record Dow Jones averages (Dec 1: 24,232), a 17-year low unemployment rate (4.1% in October), and a higher-than-expected 3.3% GDP for Q3 2017.Senate and House GOP leaders will begin ironing out their differences on Monday, with the President’s signature likely before the December break.
In keeping his pledge to “give the American people a big, beautiful, Christmas present,” Trump and the GOP Congress launch an opportunity for Republicans to have a happy political new year in 2018.
With the success of the tax reform bill, much of the credit for the nation’s economic growth in the coming months can be claimed by President Trump and Congressional Republicans. Trump will be credited with deal-making skills and GOP lawmakers will be credited with being able to govern.
Success breeds success. Look for US Senate and US House Republicans, along with vulnerable Democratic US Senators running in red states, to collaborate on a Trump-led agenda in 2018. You can expect an infrastructure bill (including “The Wall”), new trade deals with China and other Asian countries, and repatriation of $2.4 trillion foreign profits parked abroad due to a 35% corporate tax rate.
With more legislative successes now likely, Trump’s job approval and favorability ratings will grow at the very least to the mid-40s throughout 2018. Not remarkable, but enough to stop a Democratic wave election and keep the majorities in both the US Senate and US House in the grip of Republicans.
Democrats in Total Disarray Despite Flynn Indictment
Of course, Democrats will argue that Friday’s guilty plea by former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn for lying to the FBI is a game-changer. That other Trump insiders are likely to be ensnared by Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russian collusion investigation.
However, corruption is Washington, DC has been so pervasive for so long, that as many Democrats are likely to be indicted as Republicans; maybe even more. Count the sexual predators.
As Republicans celebrate a major policy victory, Congressional Democrats are in disarray. A growing number are calling on Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to resign even as she calls on 88-year-old Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) to resign in the face of sexual harassment charges.
Pelosi started a firestorm of criticism over her initial response to charges against Conyers by defending him on NBC’s Meet the Press. Pelosi told Chuck Todd that Conyers deserved due process, and suggested that Conyers deserved special consideration because he, “… is an icon in our country.”
Shortly after midnight Saturday morning, Pelosi called on another US House Democrat to resign, Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen, after he was accused of sexual harassment late Friday, December 1. Not a good week for Democrats, one that included the US Senate Ethics Committee launching an inquiry into accusations of sexual misconduct claimed by five women against US Sen. Al Franken (D-MN).
Perhaps the most significant fallout from the explosion of sexual harassment claims is the number of Democrats who now believe that the party was wrong to defend President Bill Clinton against the women who accused him of sexual assault and rape.Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), told the NY Times that Clinton should have resigned in the aftermath of hisaffair witha 21-year-old White House intern.
Democrats have little chance to retake congressional and state legislative majorities if Nancy Pelosi is Minority Leader. She is indicative of the biggest problem facing the Democratic Party today: aging 20th Century leaders with 20th Century priorities. Old, 1960s era Civil Rights and Feminist Revolution activists still running around the county labeling everyone who disagrees with them “racists,” “sexists,” “misogynists,” “xenophobic,” “Islamophobs.”
The world, our nation and our state have changed too drastically for old school politicians touting last century’s problems and solutions to lead effectively. They must get out of the way for a new generation of young leaders to have an opportunity to make a difference for today’s greater good.
Per Gallup, the most important concern on the minds of voters in 2015, 2016 and 2017 has been government. That concern is driven by all leaders who have failed to get things done because they put their party, their power, their ideology … their ideals … ahead of solving the nation’s problems.
That’s where we are as a nation. That’s why we can’t get things done.
But President Trump is not about ideals. He is about getting things done.
President Trump Takes the “I” out of “Ideal”
If you take the “i” out of ideal, you get “deal.” That’s President Trump.
Trump is all about the deal, not the ideal. It’s fundamental to his success in business; it’s why he is a billionaire. And, it is an essential quality for getting things done here at home and around the word.
According to a New York Times story on the President’s five-nation, 12-day trip to Asia last month, the value of taking the “i” out of “ideal” was apparent and appreciated by the Chinese.
“After years of American presidents lecturing China on issues like political prisoners and democracy,” write New York Times reporters Javier Hernandez and Iris Zhao on November 9, “they are relieved to see a leader who seems to care more about making deals than idealism.”
The New York Times story noted that the tone of America’s conversation with China has changed for the better because Trump treated President Xi Jinping with respect; recognized China as an equal. “Now we can talk to each other,” said a political commentator for China Radio International in Beijing.
That’s where Democrats need to get if they want to recover politically by 2020. They must take the “i” out of their “ideal” too. They must change the tone of the conversation and become dealmakers.
Meanwhile, the GOP is better positioned for a happy political new year in 2018 thanks to the “big, beautiful, Christmas present” President Trump and CongressionalRepublicans will be putting put underthe tree, thanks to the Senate’s Yea 51-Nay 49 vote on tax reform Saturday morning, December 2, 2017.
END –
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John N. Davis
Book John Davisherefor your 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,”identifies the state, national and international trends that suggest the likely winners of 2018 and 2020 elections.
“Felt so fortunate to hear Mr. Davis’ take on the political climate – it was eye-opening, and perspective changing, even for someone who’s involved in this world day-in and day-out.” Leadership North Carolina, November 8, 2017
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Are Virginia Election Results an Ominous Forewarning for North Carolina Republicans Running in 2018? November 15, 2017 Vol. X, No. 10 2:13 pm Virginia is Reliably Democratic. North Carolina is Not. North Carolina Democrats, with reason to be encouraged by seeing their party’s candidates win races for Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General last week
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Are Virginia Election Results an Ominous Forewarning for North Carolina Republicans Running in 2018?
November 15, 2017 Vol. X, No. 10 2:13 pm
Virginia is Reliably Democratic. North Carolina is Not.
North Carolina Democrats, with reason to be encouraged by seeing their party’s candidates win races for Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General last week in Virginia, must temper their elation with the following reality: Unlike North Carolina, Virginia has become a reliably Democratic state.
- No Republican has won a statewide race in Virginia since the GOP sweep in 2009
- Virginia is the only Southern state to vote for Obama twice and Hillary Clinton in 2016
- Virginia’s US Senators are Democrats; North Carolina’s US Senators are Republicans
- During the time when Virginia did not elect a single Republican in a statewide race, North Carolina elected two GOP US Senators, voted for Republicans Mitt Romney and Donald Trump for president, elected Pat McCrory governor in 2012, along with a GOP-majority state Supreme Court and Court of Appeals, and in 2016, elected Republicans as Lt. Governor, Commissioners of Agriculture, Labor and Insurance, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and State Treasurer, plus an 11-of-15 GOP-majority Court of Appeals
Eight years ago, in 2009, despite the personal appeal of newly-elected President Barack Obama, Democrats lost the governors races in Virginia and New Jersey because African-Americans and young voters stayed home. In 2017, the Obama coalition returned to peak turnout numbers.
As to Republican turnout last week in Virginia, exit polls show a record low since 1996.
So, although I would not put a whole lot of predictive value in the statewide results in Virginia last week, the fact that the Obama coalition of African Americans, women, young voters and urban/suburban voters returned to their historic high turnout numbers does have predictive value.
On the other hand, 2018 is North Carolina’s “Blue Moon Election Year,” a year in which there are no high profile statewide candidates to galvanize the Democratic coalitions and fund turnout operations.
But, that’s conventional wisdom; worthless in today’s politics.
Let me assure you that Democratic women in North Carolina do not need a high-profile, statewide candidate to inspire their determination to win campaigns next year. They have President Trump.
Look for a historic number of women running in state legislative races in North Carolina in 2018.
Hell Hath No Fury Like a Women Scorned
The forewarning from Virginia for North Carolina’s 2018 candidates, especially Republicans, is that Republicans went from a 32-seat advantage (66-34) in the Virginia House of Delegates to a slim 51-49 majority. Two GOP committee chairs were defeated, along with four GOP members of the powerful Appropriations Committee.
But, the most important forewarning for North Carolina Republicans is that 11 of the 15 Republican incumbents who lost legislative races were defeated by Democratic women.
Democratic women in Virginia, shaken to the core by Hillary Clinton’s defeat, were reinvigorated by the Women’s March on Washington on January 21, 2017, then inspired all year long by anti-Trump fervor stirred by liberal women activists and their allied groups. For emphasis:
- Republicans went from a 32-seat advantage (66-34) to a slim 51-49 majority
- 15 seats flipped GOP to Dem, 11 of 15 won by Dem women over GOP male incumbents
- Women are now 27% of Virginia legislature (women were 19%)
- Female winners in House of Delegate races include the 1st Asian delegate, 1st Latina delegates (2), the 1st Trans woman delegate and 1st openly lesbian candidate
In a twist of poetic justice, the state’s first transgender woman delegate defeated the Republican incumbent who drafted the “bathroom bill” in Virginia, similar to North Carolina’s HB2.
Obama Coalition is Back; So is Centrist Governance
The greatest regional turnout last week was Northern Virginia, the “swamp” that President Trump threatens to drain. Per Washington Post Exit Polling, 28% of all Virginia voters last week were in the D.C. suburbs. Not surprisingly, they voted for Democrat Ralph Northam for governor by 69% to 30%, five points higher than Hillary Clinton’s 2016 vote total.
There was also a big turnout for Democrats wherever large numbers of government employees live, including Hampton Roads (61% to 37% Dem) and Richmond (54% to 44% Dem). About 70% of all voters last week were in urban/suburban areas of Virginia.
In addition to a surge in urban/suburban voters, the Obama coalition of African Americans, young voters, liberals and women came roaring back within range of their historic high turnout numbers. However, it is also instructive to know that Ralph Northam, Virginia’s governor-Elect, ran as a centrist. He infuriated the left by saying he would sign a bill to ban “sanctuary cities.”
Northam, a physician, put forward a well-structured economic plan (job training and re-training), and captured the political advantage with the most important issue to voters in 2017: healthcare.
That is the key for North Carolina Democrats. Recruit sensible centrists in urban/suburban districts.
However, as Gary Pearce, a lifelong Democratic advisor and author of Jim Hunt, A Biography, noted in his blog on November 9, Democrats have their own problems. “The Hillary-Bernie fight goes on,” wrote Pearce, “The centrist-leftist fight goes on. As the Raleigh mayor’s race showed, racial tensions smolder.”
Pearce concludes by saying that he told GOP consultant Carter Wrenn not to worry about a possible Democratic wave in 2018. “We’ve got a whole year to screw it up. And we’ve got some of our best people working on it.”
He’s right. All North Carolina Democrats have after the Virginia elections is a roadmap to victory, and the inspiration that comes from seeing allied groups do well in other states.
So, are Virginia election results an ominous forewarning for North Carolina Republicans running in 2018? The answer is, the Virginia election results are instructive for both parties.
Now, the hard work of winning begins.
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Contact John Davis about scheduling his speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” for your meeting agenda in 2018. Davis identifies the major national and international catalysts driving the political trends likely to determine the winners of 2018 and 2020 elections in his speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep.” From technological advances and generational turnover to global economic corrections and cultural transformations here at home, Davis offers a thoughtful analysis of who is more likely to gain politically by adapting to today’s dynamic changes.
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Donald Trump is What You Get When There Is No Presidential Way to Drain the Swamp October 10, 2017 Vol. X, No. 9 9:13 am There is no presidential way to drain the swamp There is no presidential way to drain the swamp. President Trump understands that better than anyone else in Washington DC. That’s
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Donald Trump is What You Get When There Is No Presidential Way to Drain the Swamp
October 10, 2017 Vol. X, No. 9 9:13 am
There is no presidential way to drain the swamp
There is no presidential way to drain the swamp.
President Trump understands that better than anyone else in Washington DC. That’s why he is indifferent to the outrage of his critics like US Sen. Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican who chairs the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Corker has questioned the president’s “stability” and “competence.” He tweeted Sunday that “the White House has become an adult day care center.”
That’s it for Corker. He is now in the Trump trap. The latest Republican on a long list to fall prey to Trump’s ploy of needling his opponents into the tangled web of reactionary vindictiveness.
The Trump trap. Force your opponent to defend the way things have always been done … in the swamp. In Washington, DC. Where working class Americans struggling with inadequate employment opportunities are ignored in favor of those freed by the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision to form super PACs and buy the influence of elected and appointed insiders with hundreds of millions of untraceable dollars.
Yes, that swamp.
Congressional leaders take heed: Every despicable, incompetent, crude, insulting, immature, reckless, irresponsible and insensitive thing that Trump has ever said or done COMBINED, is not as bad in the minds of his supporters as a do-nothing federal government rigged for the privileged few.
President Trump will continue to make fools of US Senate and House leaders who continue to protect the swamp. Who put the moral high ground of the way things have always been done ahead of getting things done. Those who value civility over outrage.
Trump voters chose unpresidential over civility
Trump is an angry protest vote. That’s why everything that he says or does that is deemed outrageous by traditional presidential standards is acceptable … in the context of an angry protest.
Think about Trump as African-Americans rioting, looting and burning buildings in protest of racial injustice in law enforcement. Think about Trump as a masked, black-clad anarchist throwing police barriers through windows on the campus of Berkeley University in protest of a conservative speaker.
Or, as Michael Moore said on Meet the Press, October 2, 2016, think about Trump as a “human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
Trump was elected to be a constant pain in the neck of the establishment. An obnoxious interruption in the way things have always been done. Infuriatingly insensitive. Callous. Crude. Unpresidential.
Here is a list from the New York Times of about 100 mistakes President Trump has made. As unpresidential as most of them are, read them in the context of this thought: Donald Trump was not elected to be presidential. He was elected to drain the swamp.
There is no presidential way to drain the swamp.
Only 18% of Americans say beliefs are more important than action
A new Gallup poll released Monday, October 9, 2017, shows unequivocally that American voters want federal leaders to get things done even if it means compromising their beliefs. Only 18% say that leaders should stick to their beliefs even if nothing gets done. Three times as many voters (54%) want political leaders in Washington, DC to compromise to get things done.
The lack of legislative action on issues that matter most (immigration, healthcare and all matters that spur job growth from trade and tax reform to infrastructure spending) is why Americans continue to list Dissatisfaction with Government/Poor Leadership as the most important national problem.
On September 18, 2017, Gallup released a poll showing that 71% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed, and that “satisfaction with governance is related to Congress approval.” Congressional job approval today? About 13% per Real Clear Politics average.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s job approval is 39% per Real Clear Politics. Nothing to write home about, but three times that of unproductive Republican and Democratic leaders in Washington.
Unfortunately for establishment Republicans, the voter outrage that propelled unpresidential Donald Trump past their hand-picked candidates for president is now being redirected against US Senate and House Republican incumbents in next year’s GOP primaries. In today’s political environment, the establishment is the kiss of death. It’s why US Sen. Luther Strange lost to religious right zealot Roy Moore in the Alabama GOP primary on September 26. (Moore makes Jesse Helms look moderate.)
US Sen Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund spent $6,552,462 of the nearly $11.5 million spent by outside sources in the Alabama US Senate GOP primary race and lost to a challenger whose outside allies spent $1.5 million. The establishment is the kiss of death in 2017-2018.
Conservative revolutionary Steve Bannon, former White House adviser to President Trump and now executive chairman at Breitbart News, led the charge in Alabama against the establishment. Against Karl Rove and the US Chamber. He is now promising to challenge every incumbent Republican US Senator in 2018 … except Ted Cruz.
President Trump will continue to make fools of US Senate and House leaders, like Tom Corker, who protect the swamp. Who put the moral high ground of the way things have always been done ahead of getting things done. Those who stand by tradition and civility and in the face of voter outrage.
Donald Trump is what you get when there is no presidential way to drain the swamp.
END –
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Establishment Denial is Trump’s Greatest Political Advantage Among Four Key Predictors of 2018 Winners September 14, 2017 Vol. X, No. 8 10:13 am You can forget about a Democratic wave election in 2018 The biggest political mistake being made today by establishment leaders of all institutions everywhere, at every level, is underestimating the ability of
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Establishment Denial is Trump’s Greatest Political Advantage Among Four Key Predictors of 2018 Winners
September 14, 2017 Vol. X, No. 8 10:13 am
You can forget about a Democratic wave election in 2018
The biggest political mistake being made today by establishment leaders of all institutions everywhere, at every level, is underestimating the ability of President Donald J. Trump to get what he wants. The Establishment is in denial. Establishment denial is Trump’s greatest political advantage among the four key predictors of 2018 likely winners, including the economy, Supreme Court decisions on immigration and redistricting, and presidential job approval.
Establishment denial. It’s as if the Establishment cannot bring themselves to acknowledge that a self-made billionaire … one with his name atop 65 resort properties and skyscrapers scattered over the world, the author of 15 books, including best sellers, with a degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and the conqueror of two political dynasties, the Democratic Clintons and the Republican Bushes … just might be as smart as they are. Or God forbid, even smarter!
Further, the news media elite of all persuasions, the academic community and many of the best and brightest from the worlds of business and government cannot bear to admit Trump’s ability to get what he wants without their genius and support. In Trump’s Washington, DC, they are no longer indispensable.
Establishment hubris; establishment denial is Trump’s greatest political asset.
Donald Trump won because he rejected the Establishment. The Establishment of both the Republican and Democratic parties. The establishment way of doing things. Of measuring success.
Today, September 14, 2017, in Gallup’s latest national poll on the most important problems facing the country, once again we see “Dissatisfaction with Government/Poor Leadership” at the top of list as the #1 problem facing the country in the minds of voters. But poor leadership was the #1 problem facing the nation the entire year in 2016 … before Donald Trump was elected president.
The poor leadership in Washington, DC is the Establishment and their way of doing things.
Voters know that until we get rid of the Establishments way of doing things in Washington, DC, we will never solve the other problems in dire need of attention like immigration, tax reform, health care, race relations, the national debt and unifying the country.
US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the consummate establishment Republican, demonstrated just how out of touch he is with most Americans when, in August, he told a civic group that President Trump’s “excessive expectations” about how long it takes to get legislation passed were because Trump had “not been in this line of work before.”
McConnell is apparently unaware that Trump’s “excessive expectations” are a mandate from voters who elected him over the establishment candidates precisely because they, like Mitch McConnell, have proven themselves inept lawmakers despite their experience in the line of work of governing.
Trump won because he would not be cowed by the establishment. The news media. Wall Street. The GOP. The Obama insiders. Trump would not be broken by those who buy ink by the barrel or sell airtime based on popular ratings. Broken like most Democratic and Republican establishment leaders.
Voters didn’t reject Democratic and Republican ideas, they rejected Democratic and Republican establishment leaders. Both parties still have great ideas. It’s the leaders who have sold out on those ideas in exchange for the security of a rigged federal government favoring privileged insiders.
In electing Trump, voters put solving the Country’s most important problems ahead of all matters of political loyalty or ideological bias. Even ahead of gender and religious sensitivities.
Imagine this: Voters who elected Trump considered solving the Country’s most important problems a weightier consideration than all his personal weaknesses, his lack of military and government leadership experience, and every offensive comment he ever made … combined.
Trump voters see him as the only revolutionary leader in Washington, DC rich and powerful enough to stand up to the rich and powerful establishment insiders who have ignored the fears and concerns of those struggling to make ends meet while feathering their own political nests.
If Trump maintains his forcefulness as a revolutionary leader intent on getting things done with or without the establishment, odds are a new Trump-led bipartisan congressional coalition will pass immigration, tax reform and infrastructure legislation that will drive his job approval numbers up.
The economy is already trending favorably. Per today’s Gallup poll, the percentage of Americans naming the economic concerns as the #1 problem is now 17%, “the lowest since July 2007.”
US Supreme Court trending right on immigration and redistricting
With the nation’s economic recovery picking up steam and the likelihood of a successful Trump-led bipartisan governing coalition coming together in Washington, the final major predictor of likely winners in 2018 is the US Supreme Court. And it is trending right.
Two US Supreme Court’s decisions announced Tuesday, September 12, 2017, signal the rightward shift of the court on immigration and redistricting, a turn of events that may yield many years of “wins” by Trump on those two volatile issues.
One decision, overruling the historically liberal San Francisco-based Ninth Circuit in favor of Trump’s efforts to tighten restrictions on new immigrants and refugees, is a win likely dismissed by the establishment because other travel ban related cases are pending. Meanwhile, there have been 3 Supreme Court “wins” for Trump on his travel ban executive order.
Another decision announced Tuesday, with implications for Republican legislative district remapping in North Carolina, blocked a lower federal court ruling in a Texas case where Republicans were accused of intentionally drawing racially discriminatory districts. If the latest Republican maps pass US Supreme Court scrutiny, the GOP is favored in 2018 to win supermajorities in the North Carolina Senate (need 30 of 50 seats) and House (need 72 of 120 seats).
The fact is, under the United States Constitution, there is no greater potential for “winning” politically than a president’s ability to create a favorable ideological balance on the United States Supreme Court. Trump secured that potential with the nomination of 49-year-old Neil Gorsuch as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States.
Think three to four decades of Trump “wins.” The Trump Court.
One more conservative nominee on the Supreme Court, someone like US Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, and Trump will surely be able to keep his campaign promise, “We’re going to win so much. You’re going to get tired of winning.”
On Tuesday, September 12, 2017, the US Census Bureau reported that median household income in America was $59,039 in 2016, the highest earning-year ever. Democrats will soon argue that only President Obama deserves credit for record middle-class household earnings. After all, President Trump was not sworn in until January 2017.
However, in 2018, voters will not care to quibble over details like the fact that Trump was not at the helm when the highest earning-year record was set. Whether the news is good or bad, the ins get the credit and the blame. It’s fundamental to American politics.
Meanwhile, the establishment will likely continue to deny their ineptitude and not change the way things have always been done. Their denial is Trump’s greatest political advantage, the impetus for forming a bipartisan governing coalition to get things done.
With the economy in solid recovery and a right-trending US Supreme Court, a successful bipartisan governing coalition is the final key to making 2018 a big year for Trump and his allies.
In 2018, only genuine antiestablishment revolutionary leaders like Trump and those who join him in passing immigration reform, tax reform and infrastructure spending bills will receive the political stamp of approval by impatient American voters with “excessive expectations.”
Today’s voters could care less about what line of work you are in or what party you belong to or how important you think you are. They want results. Trump is all about results. That’s why the establishment leaders of all institutions everywhere, at every level, are making a big mistake underestimating the ability of President Donald J. Trump to get what he wants.
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John N. Davis
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