John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Tea Party detractors have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down.  Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.”       John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard

GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential

Post:  Thursday, October 21, 2010, by John Davis

MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR SOLID IN NC FOR MONTHS:  When I created the Late Breaking Trends tracking charts in mid-August, I expected that the double-digit advantage favoring North Carolina Republicans would tighten up as Election Day neared.  It always does.  It has not.

Take a look at the graphs below from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts and you will see that not only has the partisan momentum advantage favored the GOP for many months, the advantage has not dropped below 18% since early September for NC Senate races, or below 12% for NC House races.

Here are two new numbers from Gallup this week that are indicative of the overall dissatisfaction with the policies of the nation’s political leadership … numbers that are driving the GOP-friendly trend:

Obama’s Ratings at New Low: Today, Gallup reports that, “President Barack Obama’s job approval average of 44.7% marks a new quarterly low.”  Gallup also reports that Obama’s “favorable rating has also reached a new low as president, at 47%,” with a majority saying he does not deserve re-election.

Satisfaction with Direction of U.S. Lowest in 30 Years:  On Monday of this week, Gallup reported that only 21% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and that “If that figure does not improve considerably in the next two weeks, it would be the lowest level of U.S. satisfaction Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election in more than 30 years….”

The GOP is favored by 11 out of 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report.

For emphasis: Not once in two months have NC Senate Democrats had an advantage on any of the 12 economic and political variables used to create the Late Breaking Trends trend line.  The same is true for the NC House Democrats with one exception: the mid-year campaign finance reports filed with the State Board of Elections showed NC House Democrats with a 2-to-1 Cash on Hand advantage.  The new reports will be out next week.  Look for a major tightening of the campaign funding gap, as Republicans are likely to report their best fundraising election cycle ever.

Today’s NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point advantage.

Today’s NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point advantage.

GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential

The two smartest decisions made this year by the North Carolina Republican political war generals are: #1 – To focus on economic concerns and stay away from the issues that have driven independents over to the Democrats for many election cycles; and, #2 – To invest early and heavily in a voter turnout operation designed to give them the advantage in early voting and Election Day turnout.

They’ve done a good job with decision #1.  We’ll have to wait until Election Day to see what kind of job they are doing with decision #2 … the turnout operation.  That will decide their fate.

The GOP leaders in the state and nation should thank their lucky stars for the Tea Party movement, and should be commended for embracing them rather than trying to convert them.  The Tea Partiers set the agenda for this election cycle and kept it focused on economic matters.  That’s why it has been so successful.

Tea Party detractors, from day one, have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down.  Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.

That’s where we are in America today.  Tea Partiers are voters who, like our Boston ancestors in 1773, feel like their concerns are not being respected by governmental leaders.  Unlike their Boston ancestors, they are looking for something to throw overboard besides tea.

If the GOP is given the opportunity to lead in Raleigh and Washington, they just may be able to keep the powerful new conservative/independent majority coalition together for many election cycles to come … IF, and only if, they keep their economic agenda front and center and do not allow themselves to be defined by their social agenda.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

For a profile of the Tea Party folks read my April 13, 2010 John Davis Political Report titled, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard.

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group.  Click here to request availability and fees.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Thursday, October 21, 2010.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

PLEASE URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Individual Subscription          $48.50             Annual                        Individuals and Small Business

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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“But it [anger of the electorate] is not inchoate irrational anger — a ‘temper tantrum,’ as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep — but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.” Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, October 15, 2010

Beware of Stampeding Elephants

Post:  Friday, October 15, 2010, by John Davis

Public debt has political consequences.  That’s the #1 takeaway from the 2010 election cycle.  Here is #2:  Run over conservative and moderate Americans with a liberal agenda at your own peril.  If you do, beware; you may just create a retaliatory herd of stampeding elephants.

Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you will see that North Carolina Republicans continue a partisan momentum advantage that has not wavered for months

Here are the latest economic numbers driving the stampede:

Economic News Keeps Obama & Democrats on Defensive

• U.S. budget deficit over $1 trillion two consecutive years
• Over 100,000 foreclosures in September, record high
• U.S. trade deficit $46.35 billion in August
• U.S. imports jumped 2.1%, while exports rose 0.2%.
• Unemployment claims rose by 13,000 to 462,000 in the latest week
• Only 13% of Americans rate the country’s economic as “Excellent/Good”

Public debt has consequences.  As Charles Krauthammer noted in today’s Washington Post, the anger of the electorate today is not “a ‘temper tantrum,’ as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep — but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.”

Obamamania Wanes Among College Students: A new Associated Press-mtvU poll released Wednesday of this week found that President Obama’s “Job Approval” among college students has plummeted from 60% in May 2009 to 44% today.  According to Alan Fram with the Huffington Post, these new numbers are “a fresh sign of trouble for Democrats struggling to rekindle enthusiasm among many of these newest voters for the crucial midterm elections.”

Last night, at an event hosted by MTV, CMT and BET, the president was put on the spot by young voters who questioned why they should vote for him again in 2012.

Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts were Early Signals of a New “Change” Agenda: Clear evidence of disillusioned young Obama zealots could be seen last November in Virginia, where only 10% of 18 to 24-year old  voters turned out compared to 21% in 2008.  Obama’s 2-to-1 advantage among young people melted into a 51% support for the Democrat.  The Republican won.

New Jersey Independents: As significant as the Democratic loss of enthusiastic young voters is the loss of Independent voters.  In New Jersey, Independent voters were 2-to-1 behind Obama in 2008.  Last November, 58% of the Independent voters chose the Republican Chris Christie in the governor’s race.  Christie won.

Massachusetts Independents: Democrats also lost their advantage among Independent voters in Massachusetts, where Democrats enjoyed a 2-to-1 advantage among Independent voters who flip-flopped 2-to-1 to Scott Brown, the GOP nominee.  A Republican in a pickup truck won Ted Kennedy’s seat with the message “we need to change Washington.”  Sound familiar?

Top takeaways from the 2010 election cycle are likely to be:

• Public debt has political consequences.
• Obama voters cannot be presumed to be Democratic voters.
• If you are the #1 highest ranked liberal member of the U.S. Senate, and you become president, run over conservative and moderate Americans with a liberal agenda at your own peril.
• Beware of wishing for all of the power; you just may wind up with all of the blame.
• Obama lost the “change” agenda when he became the president he ran against.  (See slides below)

How did Obama and the Democrats lose the “change” message?

Take a look at these two slides from my latest speech, North Carolina Politics 2010 – Battle for the Majority in the Senate and House, and you will see that most of problems that lead to the Republican disaster in 2008 are now the problems leading to a disastrous year for the Democrats in 2010.

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group.  Click here to request availability and fees.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Friday, October 15, 2010.  All indicators point to a stampede of angry Republicans to the polls, dominating early voting between now and Election Day … driven by lack of respect shown by the current leadership in Washington and Raleigh for the simple notion that public debt has consequence.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Individual Subscription          $48.50             Annual                        Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                        $485.00           Annual                        Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription         $4850.00         Annual                        Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Thanks so much for supporting the John Davis Political Report!

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for this election cycle.” Late Breaking Trends, Oct 8, 2010

JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR

Post:  Friday, October 8, 2010, by John Davis

JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR:  Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for the remainder of this election cycle.

Economic issues have been #1 all year, with growing doubt among Americans about whether the policies of the Obama Administration aimed at recovery are working.  This was the last chance to show positive results.  Election day in North Carolina begins next Thursday, October 14.  It’s now about turnout.

LATE BREAKING TRENDS:  The GOP is favored by all 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report.

NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point momentum advantage.

NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point momentum advantage.

TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT:  Democrats could still minimize the political damage on November 2 by if they have a few turnout tricks up their sleeves.  It happened in 1998, when the Clinton/Lewinski affair had everyone certain that defeated Democrats were going to litter the political battlefield that November.  Instead, Democrats invested $30 million in a turnout operation that saved the day … helping John Edwards defeat GOP US Senator Louch Faicloth and helping Democrats retake the majority in the NC House.

Turnout is driven only in part by the partisan momentum advantage.  It is driven equally by a well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.

Gallup’s new study of likely voters that gives the GOP an unprecedented 18% advantage under the typical mid-term election year “lower turnout” model.

• Gallup says that IF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS VOTED, the GOP would have a 46% to 43% advantage over Democrats in congressional balloting.
• Looking only at “Likely voters” in the typical mid-year lower turnout, the GOP would have a 56% to 38% advantage.
• Even in an unusually high mid-term turnout scenario, the GOP advantage would be 53% to 40%.

Total percentage turnout of all registered voters in 2008 in North Carolina was 70%.

However, the total percentage turnout of all registered voters in 2006, the last mid-term election year, was 37% … in North Carolina.  Low turnout scenario hightens GOP advantage.

Enthusiasm Gap … Democrats have never been thrilled about voting in midterm elections says Jamelle Bouie in The American Prospect.  Bouie cites the following stats:

• In 2006, young voters were only 12 percent of the electorate (compared with 18 percent in 2008).
• Likewise, African Americans were only 10 percent of the electorate (compared with 13 percent in 2008).
• According to Gallup’s late September polling, only 28 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about their party’s candidates in the midterm elections, compared with 47 percent of Republicans.
• This isn’t just a blip in the polls; since March, the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats hasn’t dipped below 10 points.

CHECK OUT TODAY’S LATE BREAKING TRENDS CHARTS: 

NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point momentum advantage.

NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point momentum advantage.

Gallup today, October 8, 2010, shows only 13% of Americans rate economic conditions as “Excellent or Good;” 42% say “Poor.”

Real Clear Politics today, October 8, 2010, shows:

• 61% of Amercans say the country is headed in the “Wrong track;” 33% “Right Direction”
• 49% of Americans “Disapprove” of the job President Obama is doing; 45% “Approve”
• 72% “Disapprove” of the job congress is doing; 21% approve

Pollster.com shows that 55% of NC voters “Disapprove” of the job Obama is doing; 43% “Approve.”

Public Policy Polling, Oct. 1 News Release:  GOP Leads Dems on Generic Legislative Ballot by 8 Points. “Democrats control both houses of the North Carolina General Assembly, but they still trail generic GOP candidates, 50-42, about the same as last month’s 49-41.”

October 4 Civitas News Release shows President Obama’s “Job Approval” in North Carolina at 42% among likely voters; 55% of likely voters disapprove.

Early Voting Begins Next Thursday, Oct. 14

Early voting sites for the November 2, 2010 General Election are now available from the NC State Board of Elections.  Click here for a complete listing of the sites in your county.

Today’s USA Today carried a front page story Thursday, October 7, 2010, titled Early primary ballots rose 50% in 2010 over the last mid-term election year … 2006.

FOR EMPHASIS:

JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR:  Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for this election cycle.

Economic issues have been #1 all year, with growing doubt among Americans about whether the policies of the Obama Administration aimed at recovery are working.  This was the last chance to show positive results.  Election day in North Carolina begins next Thursday, October 14.  It’s now about turnout.

Turnout is driven only in part by the partisan momentum advantage.  It is driven equally by a well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.

Next Thursday, we will begin to see who has the most well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Trial Subscription                   $4.85               Two Weeks

Individual Subscription          $48.50             Annual                        Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                        $485.00           Annual                        Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription         $4850.00         Annual                        Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Thanks so much for supporting the John Davis Political Report!

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“It was at this time in 1998 that Republicans made one of the greatest blunders in the history of American politics, shifting the momentum to the Democrats. In the final week of the 1998 campaigns, Republicans spent $10 million on television ads reminding voters of the sexual affair between President Clinton and Monica Lewinski.  Democrats were spending $30 million on a Get-out-the-vote campaign.” Late Breaking Trends, Sept. 29, 2010

Post:  Wednesday, September 29, 2010, by John Davis

Do Democrats have an October Surprise in the Making …Like the Trojan Horse of 1998?

The two biggest unknowns that will determine the outcome of most close races in North Carolina this November are: (1) How is Republican fund-raising fairing?  (2) Do the Democrats have an October turnout surprise?

We have no way of knowing the answer to either question until the end of October.  That’s when the campaign income and expense report are filed with the State Board of Elections.  What we do know is that Republicans have the momentum going into the final weeks of the 2010 election cycle.  We also know that Democrats have fought their way out of a corner before by beating the GOP with a more effective get-out-the-vote campaign.

In 1998, President Clinton’s scandalous affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky was in the headlines all year.  In addition to scandal, history was stacked against the Democrats that fall because it was a mid-term election year during which the party of the president always does poorly.  And finally, the Federal election commission reported a week before Election Day that Republicans had out-raised the Democrats by $92 million.

Gallup reported in October 1998 that GOP enthusiasm for voting was much higher than that of the Democrats, making them much more likely to vote.  Gallup also reported that the generic ballot question showed more voters likely to vote Republican than Democratic for congress.

It was at this time in 1998 that Republicans made one of the greatest blunders in the history of American politics, a blunder that shifted the momentum to the Democrats.  In the final week of the 1998 campaigns, Republicans spent $10 million on television ads reminding voters of the sexual affair between President Clinton and Monica Lewinski.

Republicans ran the Clinton/Lewinski attack ads despite the polls that showed that the American public did not want Clinton impeached, and despite the polls that showed that every time Special Persecutor Ken Starr released another round of explicit detail of the Clinton/Lewinski affair, Clinton’s favorability numbers would improve!  The day after the US House passed the Articles of Impeachment, Clinton’s “favorability” soared to 72%!

The weekend following the $10 million Clinton-bashing ad campaign, CNN/USA Today/Gallup did another poll leading to the astounding conclusion that a momentum shift toward the Democrats was happening; that 52% of the likely voters said that they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, and 48% said they were likely to vote for the Republican.

On this day twelve years ago, September 29, 1998, there was no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Democrats were going to suffer greatly at the polls.  Here is what actually happened:

• Republican US Sen. Lauch Faircloth lost to unknown Democrat John Edwards
• Republicans lost control of the North Carolina House of Representatives
• No change in party in power in the US Senate and US House
• No change in the partisan mix of US governors
• No change in the partisan mix of U.S. House members from North Carolina
• Gov. Hunt’s “Job Approval” was still above 70%
• Marc Basnight was still in charge of the NC Senate

Democrats did something in November 1998 that no party had done since 1934, and that was to add seats in congress during a mid-term election year while holding the White House.

How did they do it?

Democrats were so concerned about minimizing the damage they were anticipating from the Clinton-Lewinski scandal … along with the damage from the fact that they were being outspent by Republicans during  mid-term election year, that they decided to invest $30 million in a Get-Out-the-Vote campaign.  The GOTV campaign featured for the first time computer-dialed “robo-calls;” taped phone messages from the President and First Lady phoned into millions of households.  It was their Trojan Horse.

North Carolina’s General Election Day begins Thursday, October 14, 2010.  That’s the first day of early voting in North Carolina.  In 2008, 2.64 million of the 4.31 million votes cast in the NC General Election were early voters; 70% of the early voters in 2008 were Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%).

Today the trends favor a Republican takeover of the US House and both chambers of the NC General Assembly.  But the only thing that counts on Election Day is who got their vote out.

Do Democrats have an October surprise in the making …like the Trojan Horse of 1998?  Have Republicans raised enough money to finance their own Trojan Horse?  Tension mounts.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Wednesday, September 29, 2010.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Trial Subscription                   $4.85               Two Weeks

Individual Subscription          $48.50             Annual                        Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                        $485.00           Annual                        Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription         $4850.00         Annual                        Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Thanks so much for supporting the John Davis Political Report!

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Pres.Obama admonished unenthusiastic Democrats today by describing their lack of interest in voting as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.” Unfortunately for Pres. Obama, that’s exactly how many Democrats would describe his priorities since taking over the presidency.” Late Breaking Trends, Sept. 28, 2010

Post:  Tuesday, September 28, 2010, by John Davis

Pres. Obama blasts politically indifferent Democrats as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.”

Pres. Obama admonished unenthusiastic Democrats today by describing their lack of interest in voting as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.” Unfortunately for Pres. Obama, that’s exactly how many Democrats would describe his priorities since taking over the presidency … “inexcusable” and “irresponsible” … especially as they relate to his handling of the economic crisis.

According to Gallup today, only 10% of Americans would rate the economic conditions of the country as either “excellent or good” combined. A total of 47% rate economic conditions in the US today as “poor.”  Especially hard-hit are the youngest of American workers.

That’s why the president is at the University of Wisconsin today … trying to shore up his relationship with young voters. Today’s Gallup.com website also shows Underemployment at 18.8% (unemployed plus those who are working part-time but seeking full-time employment.)  If you adjust the Underemployment figure for only young workers in the 18-to-24-year-old crowd, Underemployment jumps to 38%. Little wonder that the president is having such a tough time keeping his base of young voters committed to his agenda.

On the political front, according to Real Clear Politics.com today, September 28, 2010, Pres. Obama’s “job approval” is only 45%; congressional “job approval” is only 23%.  That explains why 61% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.

The biggest news of the week thus far is the announcement yesterday by Civitas that Republicans now have an 11% lead on the legislative generic ballot question in North Carolina.  The question was asked, “If the election were held today for state legislature, would you be voting for the Republican or the Democrat.”  A total of 44% of North Carolina registered voters said that they would vote for the Republican; 33% said they would vote for the Democrat.

The most startling number coming out of the new Civitas poll is that Unaffiliated voters, now totaling 1,450,285 in the Ole North State (24% of all voters), favor Republicans over Democrats by a 49% to 14% advantage.

How does it all impact North Carolina’s dual battles for the majority in the state Senate and House?   Today’s Late Breaking Trends charts show North Carolina Republicans with a solid momentum advantage. On the North Carolina Senate chart, Republicans have a 59% to 41% momentum advantage. On the North Carolina House chart, Republicans have a 56% to 44% momentum advantage.

If you add the partisan momentum to the state Senate races, you will see that if the elections were held today Republicans would win at least 27 seats in the 50 member North Carolina Senate … giving them the majority of the first time since 1898.  There are five tossup races which, if split evenly, would give the North Carolina Senate Republicans a 29 seat majority.

If you add the partisan momentum to the state house races, you will see that if the elections were held today Republicans would win at least 59 seats in the 120 member North Carolina House … with 61 needed for the majority. If Democrats and Republicans split the 10 tossup races evenly, Republicans would wind up with a majority of 64 seats to 56 seats for the Democrats.

To my dear Democrat friends I have this to say:  I know that what you are experiencing seems like an undue piling on of bad news from every front. Well, it is a piling on of bad news from every front.  But it’s critical for you to remember that the sources of the bad news are the same sources that said that you were going to have a good year in 2006 and 2008.

Since August 16, I have gone to the most respected and reliable sources for political research on a daily basis and compiled the 12 numbers that make up the Late Breaking Trends report.  These sources include Gallup, Real Clear Politics, Civitas, Pollster.com, Public Policy Polling, North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, and the NC State Board of Elections.

The trend line created by the daily compilation of these 12 numbers from these reliable sources is solid. The prevailing political winds of 2010 favor Republicans … the trends say it’s so.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, September 28, 2010.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Trial Subscription                   $4.85               Two Weeks

Individual Subscription          $48.50             Annual                        Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                        $485.00           Annual                        Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription         $4850.00         Annual                        Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Thanks so much for supporting the John Davis Political Report!

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“The greatest irony of 2010 is this:  President Obama has become the president that he ran against.” Late Breaking Trends, September 27, 2010

September 27, 2010, by John Davis

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Likewise, timing has a lot to do with who wins political races.  Election years 2006 and 2008, were not a good time to be a Republican. This election year, 2010, is a good time to be a Republican.

The great irony of 2010 is this: the same circumstances and decisions that drove President George W. Bush’s “Job Approval” down well below 50% — thereby hurting all Republicans — are the circumstances and decisions that have driven President Barack Obama’s “Job Approval” down below 50% — thereby hurting all Democrats.

Both Presidents Bush and Obama were/are plagued by an economic crisis, a housing crisis, a banking crisis, a loss of consumer confidence, high unemployment, an unpopular war, an unpopular congress, and unpopular decisions like financial bailouts … all leading to a loss of trust in their leadership.

The greatest irony of 2010 is this:  President Obama has become the president that he ran against.

While updating today’s Late Breaking Trends charts, I decided to take a look at where things were in North Carolina this time two years ago just to see if there were trends in place that predicted the November outcome.  During September 17 – 19, 2008, Public Policy Polling, the Democrat-leaning polling firm based in Raleigh, conducted a statewide poll that showed GOP presidential nominee John McCain and Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama tied in North Carolina 46% to 46%.  During September 17-20, 2008, the Civitas Institute, a Republican-leaning organization based in Raleigh, conducted a statewide poll that showed McCain and Obama tied at 45% to 45%.

Public Policy Polling, the Democrat-leaning polling firm, conducted another statewide poll in North Carolina during October 25 – 26, 2008, that showed Obama leading McCain by one point, 49% to 48%. The Civitas Institute, the Republican-leaning group, conducted a statewide poll October 27 – 29, 2008, that showed Obama leading McCain by one point, 47% to 46%.

That’s why it came as no surprise that Obama carried the state … the trends of the day said it was coming.  That’s why today’s trends are so significant.  There is universal agreement in September of 2010 among all polling groups that the economy is the #1 concern, that the state and nation are headed in the wrong direction, that this congress is doing a lousy job, and that Obama is a drag on Democratic candidates.

Pollster.com, one of the three primary sources I use daily to update the Late Breaking Trends charts, shows President Barack Obama with a North Carolina “Favorable” rating of only 39.2%; “Unfavorable” 48.2%.  As to the all-important “Job approval,” only 43.2% of North Carolinians approve of the job President Obama is doing; 54.2% “Disapprove.”

Nationally, according to Pollster.com, Obama’s “Job Approval” is 45.4%; 50.5% “Disapprove.”  As a matter of fact, there have been 362 national polls conducted in the United States just since January, and in only 26 of the 362 is Obama’s “Job Approval” above 50%.  If you average all 362 “Job Approval” ratings, President Obama’s 2010 average is 46.9%.

One of the best known predictors in modern American political history is that if the presidents “Job Approval” is below 50% during a mid-term election year, the party of the president loses an average of 36 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.  That trend has been tracked since 1946, and holds true in 14 of the 16 midterm election years.

North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as in 2008.  Instead, what Democrats are forced to see this year is a president plagued by the same circumstances and decisions as his predecessor … and proving himself no more capable of managing the crises of the day, whether they be the war, the gulf oil spill, or the economy.

President Obama has become the president that he ran against.

There is no greater an example of that sentiment among voters than the audience member at last week’s CNBC town hall meeting, an African American woman, who said, “I’m one of your middle-class Americans.  Quite frankly, I’m exhausted. Exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the man for change I voted for, and deeply disappointed with where we are right now.”

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Likewise, timing has a lot to do with who wins campaigns.  Election years 2006 and 2008, were not a good time to be a Republican. This election year, 2010, is a good time to be a Republican.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Monday, September 27, 2010.

The GOP is very likely to fair well on Election Day here in North Carolina this fall, maybe even winning the majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly.

But don’t take my word for it.  It’s the trends of the day that say it’s coming.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

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