The fact is, the Democratic dynasty was already near collapse in 2010 and 2012. The Democratic structural and organizational underpinnings were rotted with corruption, infighting, neglect and diminishing political battlefield competence, making them a very vulnerable political enemy.
Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
This report is the final in a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism
- Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule”
- Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology
Today, I am adding Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
May 8, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 10 3:13 pm
This 10-part series on the keys to Republican political longevity began on January 11, 2013, with the caution: don’t create political opportunities for the Democrats by making yourself vulnerable, and the best way to make yourself vulnerable is to think you are not vulnerable.
The greatest source of a sense of invulnerability is pride, the deadliest of the seven deadly sins.
For instance, pride would have Republicans believe that it was their superior might, savvy and ability as political combatants that vanquished the unbeatable foe, the North Carolina Democrats, in 2010 and 2012. If that was the whole story, why did it take the GOP 114 years to defeat them?
The fact is, the Democratic dynasty was already near collapse in 2010 and 2012. The Democratic structural and organizational underpinnings were rotted with corruption, infighting, neglect and diminishing political battlefield competence, making them a very vulnerable political enemy.
Compounding the political instability of North Carolina Democrats was President Obama, who weakened Democrats to the breaking point of defeat all over the United States by racing ahead of the wishes of voters with his own public policy agenda. During his first term, Obama was like the hare in The Tortoise and the Hare, ignoring the value of plodding along patiently with respect for the priorities of most Americans: jobs and the economy.
North Carolina Democrats never seemed to realize that they were creating major breakthrough political opportunities for Republicans by making themselves vulnerable with:
- A 10-year rash of embarrassing criminal indictments that scared off loyal contributors;
- Legislative caucuses that drifted so far left of center that they threatened business leaders;
- Leaders who hogged the glory and ignored the need for a new generation of strong state leaders;
- Standing with President Obama and his personal agenda against the voters and their agenda;
- Buying elections year after year with obligatory loyalty from resentful contributors.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It makes you think you are not vulnerable.
Today, Republicans are the ones with the absolute power in North Carolina. They, like the hare in The Tortoise and the Hare, risk becoming vulnerable by racing so fast to the public policy finish line that they lose sight of the need to bring the voters along with them. Without the support of North Carolina voters, Republican leaders, like Obama, will cause their party a world of hurt.
So, how do you avoid the corrupting influence of absolute power? First, you move at a slow and steady pace that allows for an exchange of information, concerns and ideas with voters locally around the state.
One of the best examples of effective management of sensitive public policy matters by bringing voters along with you is how Senate and House Republican leaders managed reapportionment of legislative and congressional districts. They presented their plans to the public, allowing voters to express their concerns at open forums like local public libraries and community colleges.
Take a look at the list of public hearings and the locations held by the Joint House and Senate Redistricting Committees. Over 100 opportunities for public input were scheduled during the months of April, May, June and July, 2011, for the convenience of North Carolina voters.
The second means of avoiding the corrupting influence of absolute power is to keep yourself humble by surrounding yourself with mementos of past mistakes.
I learned that transformative political lesson in 1979 from a banker in Mississippi.
His name was Bob Hearin. He was the wealthiest man in the state. President and majority stockholder of First National Bank in Jackson.
He was also the most reclusive man in the state.
Despite his great wealth, Bob worked in a drab office cluttered with odd, out-of-place items like rusty machine parts on dusty bookshelves with a small stack of old bricks piled loosely on the floor. A weathered wooden sign leaned against a dingy wall.
It would take weeks for me to finally get up the nerve to ask, “Mr. Hearin, what is all of this junk scattered around your office?”
Unlike most bank presidents, Bob Hearin was so intensely private that no one my age knew what he looked like. We had only seen a picture on the front page of the state’s largest newspaper, The Clarion-Ledger, in the annual article about the “Ten Wealthiest Mississippians.”
Each morning, except Thursdays, Mr. Hearin drove to his downtown Jackson office at First National Bank, the second largest bank in the state, where he would spend the day managing his varied business interests. Each afternoon he left the bank promptly at 3 o’clock and drove out to his farm where he fed his cows from the back of his pickup truck.
In addition to banking, he was a principal stockholder in Amerada Hess, an oil exploration and production company listed on the NYSE and headquartered in New York City, and, at one time, part-owner of the New York Jets.
On Thursdays he flew to New York City in his private jet to meet with his business partner Leon Hess, founder of Amerada Hess and owner of the New York Jets. He always made it back to Jackson in time to feed the cows.
It was because he was so reclusive, that the state’s business and political establishment was shocked when he agreed to serve in the high-profile role as finance chair of Lt. Gov. Evelyn Gandy’s campaign for governor of the Magnolia State. He was returning a favor.
The reason that I know all of this is because I was Evelyn Gandy’s Campaign Manager. I had the unique privilege of meeting with Mr. Hearin daily to discuss campaign finances.
The first day I met with Bob Hearin I was nervous. His personal secretary, Dixie, greeted me with businesslike hospitality at the elevator of the dimly lit and noticeably quiet executive suite. She led me to Mr. Hearin’s office. He immediately came to the door and welcomed me with a warm smile and sincere handshake.
I was surprised by Mr. Hearin’s friendliness; perhaps I expected an old curmudgeon. I was also surprised at his threadbare dark blue suit and his overall disheveled appearance.
The office décor was sparse, more like what you would see in a bus station waiting room rather than in the inner sanctum of the wealthiest man in the state. And then, there were those odd items all around the office. “What were they all about,” I thought curiously.
Over the next several weeks I became increasingly comfortable with Mr. Hearin during our daily meetings. Eventually, we began to talk about things other than the campaign. That was when I learned about his cows and his other business interests and his Thursdays in New York City.
The day finally came when I had the courage to ask him about the odd items in his office. “Mr. Hearin,” I began cautiously, “What is all of this junk scattered around your office?”
His eyes darted from object to object, finally resting on the small stack of bricks. “Those are mementos,” he began pensively, “of every bad loan I have ever made.”
I was stunned.
“See those bricks,” he continued, “I lost over $250,000 on a loan to the company that made those bricks.” He then nodded towards the rusty machine parts, “See those machine parts on the shelf? I lost $100,000 on that bad loan.”
One after another Mr. Hearin pointed out mementos of loans gone bad. Treasured mementos of mistakes. Always in sight. Never to be forgotten. Never to be repeated.
This transformative lesson is particularly valuable in North Carolina politics, the newest of the presidential swing states. The perfectly level political battlefield where there are no permanent partisan advantages. Where nothing can be taken for granted.
In North Carolina politics, you can go from invincible to vulnerable overnight. And no political leader or group is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
Rule #10: No Matter How Often You Read it, the Tortoise Wins and the Hare Loses. Slow and steady is the final key to longevity.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
PS: A new 10-part series highlighting key rules for How North Carolina Democrats Can Recover Political Power will begin the first week in June. Send me your ideas: www.johndavisconsulting.com
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P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities. No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years. Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
“Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.” John Davis Political Report, 1/11/2013
Friday, January 11, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 2 2:13 pm
The 114-year political winning streak for North Carolina Democrats ended Wednesday, January 9, 2013, with the swearing in of our state’s 170 state legislators. On that day, the political power of North Carolina Republicans over state government became absolute. Republican Governor, Speaker of the House and President Pro Tem of the Senate. Super majorities in both chambers.
Democrats had absolute power over North Carolina state government for all but four years since 1898. That was 1995 to 1999, when Republicans had a majority in the North Carolina House. A prized seat at the three-cornered table where all of the state budgeting decisions are made.
Granted, there were two Republican governors during the 20th Century. But they had no veto power. A Republican governor without veto power in the 20th Century had no power.
So, how long will the North Carolina Republican Party keep their absolute power? Can they match the Democrats’ winning streak of 114 Years? What are the rules for political longevity?
Rule #1: Always, always remember that you are vulnerable
In The Art of War, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu teaches the importance of defending your position on the battlefield until it is safe to change to a more advantageous position. Don’t create opportunities for the enemy by making yourself vulnerable.
North Carolina Democrats never seemed to realize that they were creating opportunities for Republicans by making themselves vulnerable.
There were plenty of warning signs. Democrats should have known:
- A 10-year rash of embarrassing criminal indictments would scare off even the most loyal contributors;
- Allowing their legislative caucuses to become ideologically warped to the far left of center would scare off business leaders;
- If your leaders hog the glory and don’t build a deep bench of farm-team candidates you will wind up without a new generation when needed;
- If you stand with the U.S. President and his personal agenda (healthcare) and against the voters and their agenda (jobs and the economy), you are going get into a world of hurt. You may even lose the opportunity to remap political districts.
- Buying elections with obligatory loyalty from resentful contributors won’t stand the test of a strong challenge if you are vulnerable.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It makes you think you are not vulnerable.
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities.
No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
Rule #2: Criminal indictments will scare off contributors
Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding. That’s what happened to Democrats during the last ten years.
- Federal prosecutor George Holding’s investigations into the campaign finance violations dried up many sources of Democratic contributions, especially in Eastern North Carolina.
- Prominent Eastern North Carolina Democratic fundraisers like Lanny Wilson, who resigned from the North Carolina Board of Transportation after being caught up in the investigation into former Gov. Mike Easley’s campaign contributions, is a case in point.
- Investigations into campaign finance violations by Gov. Mike Easley were so pervasive over such a long period of time, leading to indictments, convictions and many embarrassing revelations involving everyone from Easley and his wife to prominent supporters, that major Democratic donors put their checkbooks back in their pockets.
- Gov. Beverly Perdue and her campaign staff, who also benefited from the fundraising muscle of Eastern North Carolina Democratic bag men, came under criminal investigation by federal and state prosecutors, leading to additional scrutiny of prominent Democratic fundraisers and ultimately more indictments and convictions.
Everyone was subpoenaed.
Here’s the problem: Everyone was subpoenaed. Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.
In addition to the national scandal involving North Carolina’s own U.S. Senator John Edwards, arguably the most despised Democratic leader in America in the last decade, our state has been embarrassed time and again by the indictments and convictions of Democrats like former state Sen. and U.S. Cong. Frank Ballance, former House Speaker Jim Black, former Commissioner of Agriculture Meg Scott Phipps, former state Rep. Thomas Wright, former Governor Mike Easley and his administration’s lawyer Ruffin Poole.
Last year, two former members of Governor Perdue’s campaign staff, her 2008 campaign finance director and her Western North Carolina office director, plead guilty to campaign finance violations.
Every Democrat on the list above violated Rule #1. They didn’t think they were vulnerable. As a result, they suffered the consequences of Rule #2: Indictments scare off contributors.
Republicans who think they can manage their newfound absolute power better than the Democrats should remember that just last July, one of their own, former GOP Rep. Steven LaRoque from Kinston, resigned from the House in light of federal criminal indictments.
Who will be next? The one that thinks he is not vulnerable.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants.
They Beat Them at the Door; the New Door. How geeks became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
“They lived in the cellular shadows, effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.” Time magazine’s Michael Sherer, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters
Friday, January 4, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 1 3:13 pm
Living in Cellular Shadows; Immune to Get-Out-The-Vote Efforts
My wife and I have eight adult children, which includes three spouses, ages 24 to 32. They are among the best informed voters in America; university degrees, world travelers, tech savvy. Yet not one of the eight has cable TV, a home phone, a home radio or subscribes to a newspaper.
All of our children voted last fall, yet they did not receive a single Get-Out-The-Vote call from any campaign, national or state. They were among those who, “lived in the cellular shadows,” wrote Time magazine’s Michael Sherer in his story, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters, “effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.”
Sherer’s story disclosed for the first time a near disaster for the Obama reelection campaign in the fall of 2012. “Half the campaign’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 had no listed phone number.” How are you going to turn out one of your most loyal constituencies if you can’t find their phone numbers? The answer? Facebook apps.
- 85% of Obama’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone number were found via a Facebook Friends app
- 1 million Obama backers used the app on Facebook, permitting the Chicago HQ analytics geeks to look at their Facebook Friends
- 600,000 Obama supporters used the Facebook app to persuade 5 million of their Facebook Friends to register, contribute and/or vote
- Obama team registered 1.8 million new voters door-to-door; 1.1 million online
Chicago-based data analytics geeks gave President Barack Obama his margin of victory by identifying a powerful new means of “door-to-door contact” by friends: Facebook Friends apps on smartphones and tablets. Friends contacting friends. The new door.
Obama’s Institutional Advantage Over Romney and His Super PACs
Read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, hired an analytics team five times the size of the 2008 operations team.
The team of dozens of data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.”
The Obama megafile allowed the campaign:
- To predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- To rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- To predict the types of people who would more likely give money online or by mail
- To predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- To operate and invest with maximum efficiency
- To raise a record $1 billion war chest
- To turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
From the Time story: “We ran the election 66,000 times every night,” said a senior official, describing the computer simulations the campaign ran to figure out Obama’s odds of winning each swing state. “And every morning we got the spit-out — here are your chances of winning these states. And that is how we allocated resources.”
“I want to say one word to you. Just one word.”
In the 1967 Academy Award winning movie The Graduate, starring Dustin Hoffman, one of the top 100 most memorable movie one-liners was produced. It was, “Plastics.”
The film was a coming-of-age story about a recent college graduate who was struggling with the pressures of an older, corrupting generation. “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, to Benjamin, the new graduate, “Are you listening? Plastics,” he said, “There is a great future in plastics.”
If I could write the screenplay for a modern-day remake of The Graduate based on the 2012 elections, the dialogue would be: “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, “Are you listening? Geeks,” he said, “There is a great future in geeks.”
After reading numerous accounts of how Obama’s Chicago team built an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstars, I am persuaded that it was the geeks, the data-mining, analytical, app creating geeks, who became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants. It wasn’t the mobile devices like smartphones and tablets; it was the geeks who discovered how apps can allow friends to knock on “new doors” of friends. Digital doors.
Pew Research Center reports in The Demographics of Mobile News, that young people have “largely abandoned the print news product,” preferring instead to get their news on smartphones and tablets. Another Pew study, In Changing News Landscape, Even Television is Vulnerable, concluded that, “Among the youngest Americans – those younger than 25 – substantially more get news digitally than from traditional news sources (60% vs. 43%).
If you want to contact them, to persuade them, to get them to volunteer or contribute to your campaign, to get them to go out and vote, you are going to have to geek up.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
John Davis Political Report Awarded “Top 10 Political Influencers” by Campaigns & Elections; Biggest Winners and Losers in 2012; Happy New Year! “Davis is actually unaffiliated.” News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME, 12/21/2012 Friday, December 28, 2012 Vol. V, No. 43 7:13 am Top 10 North Carolina “Political Influencers Award” The John Davis Political Report
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John Davis Political Report Awarded “Top 10 Political Influencers” by Campaigns & Elections; Biggest Winners and Losers in 2012; Happy New Year!
“Davis is actually unaffiliated.” News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME, 12/21/2012
Friday, December 28, 2012 Vol. V, No. 43 7:13 am
Top 10 North Carolina “Political Influencers Award”
The John Davis Political Report has been named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
A special thanks to the News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME editors for clarifying that I am not affiliated with a political party. “Davis is actually unaffiliated,” they noted in the news story.
The other nine recipients of the North Carolina “Political Influencers Award” are: Republicans Tom Fetzer, lobbyist and former Raleigh mayor and state GOP chairman; lobbyist Dana Simpson; and consultants Carter Wrenn and Chris Sinclair. Democrats include political consultants Brad Crone and Mike Davis; strategist Scott Falmlen, former state Democratic Party executive director; lobbyist Bruce Thompson, and Andrew Whalen, consultant for the Blue Dog Coalition and a former state Democratic Party executive director.
North Carolina Republican Party Biggest Winner in 2012
In 2012, the North Carolina Republican Party neutralized Obama’s historic 2008 turnout advantage, thereby making this state the only swing state that Obama lost. The state GOP invested early in a major commitment to personal voter contact, increasing the number of regional headquarters from 12 in 2010 to 24 in 2012; from 8 paid Get-Out-The-Vote staff in 2010 to 67 paid staffers in 2012.
Here is the short list of accomplishments in 2012 by the North Carolina GOP:
- Historic dominance of all three branches of state government
- Landslide Republican gubernatorial win: McCrory 55%; Dalton 43%; Howe 2%
- Super majorities in NC Senate (33/17) and NC House (77/43)
- Republican Lt. Governor to preside over GOP Senate
- Republican majority congressional delegation (9/4)
- Landslide passage of Marriage Amendment in May
- Non-partisan Republican majority on NC Supreme Court
- County Commissioners: 54 GOP County Boards; 44 Democratic; 2 Non-Partisan
- Only “Swing” state not carried by President Obama in 2012 Presidential race
Business & Conservative Super PACs Biggest Losers in 2012 US Elections
Conservative Super PACs turned out to be the biggest losers of the 2012 election year. The biggest of the biggest losers? National Rifle Association. According to an analysis by the Sunlight Foundation of the $1.3 billion spent independently in 2012, the NRA had a 0.81% return on an investment of $12 million. Here are a few of the biggest losers:
- Nat’l Rifle Assn: 0.83% return on $11 million
- American Crossroads (Karl Rove) 1.29% return on $105 million spent on campaigns
- US Chamber: 6.9% return on $33 million
- Crossroads GPS: 14.3% return on $71 million
- National Republican Congressional Committee: 31.88% return on $65 million
- FreedomWorks (Tea Party): 24.5% return on investment of $20 million
- Club for Growth: 41.8% return on $17 million
John Davis Political Report Vol. VI Begins Thursday, January 3
The John Davis Political Report will begin its sixth calendar-year volume of reports on Thursday, January 3, 2013. The first report is a thorough examination of the tactical advantage achieved by those who invested early and well in a voter registration and turnout operation, like President Obama and the North Carolina Republican Party.
From the inaugural address by Governor-Elect Pat McCrory to every action taken during the upcoming session of the General Assembly, political consequences will be foremost on the minds of those who wish to continue to serve after the next elections.
It’s the American way. After all, you can’t lead if you can’t get elected.
– END of VOL. V, 2012 –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
Happy New Year!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep “What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?” Jesus,
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep
“What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”
Jesus, New Testament, Luke 15:4-7
Friday, November 9, 2012 Vol. V, No. 42 12:13 pm
Parable of the Lost Sheep
I can’t tell you how much I appreciate you for reading my reports during this election cycle.
Politics is my life’s passion. Analysis. Writing. Speaking. To have people that I respect greatly read my reports is the highest form of professional fulfillment. Thank you.
Since Tuesday night, I have been stewing over my “lost sheep,” the one race that I got wrong at the end: the U.S. Presidential race. The lost sheep analogy is from the New Testament book of Luke, where Jesus tells the following parable: “What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”
Although my North Carolina forecasts were dead on, including my forecast since Labor Day 2011 that Obama would not carry the state again, I changed my forecast that Obama would win the U.S. Presidential race in early October. Mistake. My lost sheep.
I got all 13 congressional races right; 47 of 49 state Senate races right, 114 of 120 state House races right. I got the Governor and Council of State right; and Supreme Court Justice Newby.
But, the lost sheep.
We Knew the Tie Would be Broken by Turnout
I had the U.S. Presidential race right from Labor Day 2011 until October 4, 2012. That’s the day after the first debate when I saw, for the first time, Republicans united and excited about their nominee Mitt Romney.
In my mind, excitement and unity meant momentum and volunteers and turnout.
The race had been tied since the national conventions in Tampa and Charlotte. The tie would be broken by turnout. Turnout was driven by unity and enthusiastic volunteers.
Wrong.
Granted, polling confirmed that Romney voters were twice as excited as McCain voters were in 2008. But in 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.
Polls also showed that young voters, women, Latino’s and even African Americans were less excited about Barack Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008.
In 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.
Turnout in 2012 was driven by a strategic and tactical advantage; an early investment by the Obama campaign in the most sophisticated targeting analytical software in political history. An investment in building the most complete and accurate list of supporters ever. An investment in strategically placed headquarters from which to manage the turnout operation. An investment in a field staff to coordinate volunteers as they went about the daily grind of voter turnout.
Conventional wisdom said that there was no way President Obama could get a higher number of African American voters in 2012 than his record-breaking 2008 turnout. Yet in critical states like Ohio, African American turnout increased from 11% of all voters in 2008 to 15% Tuesday.
If African American turnout in Ohio was the same as 2008, Romney would have won the state. What principle did the Obama campaign apply? The lost sheep. Every Obama vote was found.
North Carolina Republicans Neutralized Obama’s 2008 Turnout Advantage
The Republican National Committee made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.
Big mistake.
The Republican independent expenditure leaders like Karl Rove made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.
A $400 million mistake.
Fortunately for North Carolina Republicans, the leadership of the state party, led by former Congressman Robin Hayes and Executive Director Scott Laster, recognized the strategic and tactical importance of neutralizing the Democrats’ 2008 turnout advantage with a well-organized and well-funded turnout operation in 2012. Turnout.
They started early. They doubled the regional headquarters. They tripled the paid staff. They had ten times the number of volunteers doing the hard work of turning out voters. They worked together. They worked tirelessly.
The Romney campaign. The Pat McCrory gubernatorial campaign. The state Senate and House legislative caucus campaigns. The Congressional campaigns. The Council of State and Judicial campaigns. All united by the state Republican Party into a turnout organization that neutralized the Obama 2008 turnout advantage in North Carolina.
The proof was in the 2012 registration and early voting turnout. Example: Romney got 95,000 more early votes in North Carolina than McCain in 2008. Obama only won by 14,117 votes in 2008 out of 4.3 million. Turnout advantage neutralized. Swing state lost.
Thanks to solid candidates, smart political war generals, savvy and committed staff, a great team of fundraisers, fair and legal legislative and congressional maps, and a well-coordinated turnout organization with thousands of volunteers doing the hard work of winning campaigns, North Carolina Republicans will dominate all three branches of state government, executive, legislative and judicial, for the first time since 1898.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina House: 77 Republicans; 43 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Vol. V, No. 41 3:13 pm NC House Races: Forecast vs Results In the new 120-member state House, Republicans will have 77 seats to 43 for Democrats. The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 73 Republicans,
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North Carolina House: 77 Republicans; 43 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority
Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Vol. V, No. 41 3:13 pm
NC House Races: Forecast vs Results
In the new 120-member state House, Republicans will have 77 seats to 43 for Democrats. The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 73 Republicans, 47 Democrats.
- Republicans started with 25 candidates with no opposition
- Republicans won 44 of the 44 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Republicans won 3 of the 4 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
- Republicans won 4 of the 8 races in which the Democrat was “Favored”
- Republicans won 1 of the 18 races in which the Democrat was the “Likely Winner”
Democrats started with 21 candidates with no opposition
- Democrats won 17 of the 18 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Democrats won 4 of the 8 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
- Democrats won 1 of the 4 races in which the Republican was “Favored”
Click here to see all 120 House races with winners v/s forecasts.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority Congratulations to all of the winners! And, to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes. Democrats. Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone. We know
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North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats. Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority
Congratulations to all of the winners! And, to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes.
Democrats. Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.
We know exactly what you are feeling right now. It hurts. Really bad.
Don’t quit. This state needs good people like you.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Vol. V, No. 40 11:13 am
UPDATE with RUNOFF RESULTS: December 6, 2012 Vol. V, No. 40 2:13 pm
Maps + Money = Majority
Two years ago, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly for the first time since 1898.
They had exclusive legislative power. Power meant money.
One year ago, on July 27, 2011, legislative district maps, drawn by Republicans for the first time in over a hundred years, were enacted into law by the North Carolina General Assembly.
Republicans lowered themselves to the standards for fairness set by Democrats over the decades and drew themselves a big advantage in the number of legislative districts likely to elect GOP candidates.
Yesterday, November 6, 2012, legislative election results were predictable. Maps + Money = Majority.
Maps mean you have a structural advantage; more friendly districts. Money means you can hire the best political consultants and field organizers and provide your candidates with the resources they need to gain an advantage and win their campaigns.
NC Senate Races: Forecast v/s Results
In the new 50-member state Senate, Republicans will have 33 seats to 17 for Democrats. The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats and 1 toss-up race.
- Republicans started with 11 candidates with no opposition
- Republicans won 17 of the 18 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Republicans won the 2 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
- Republicans won the 2 races in which the Democrat was projected as “Favored”
- Republicans won the only “Toss up” race
- Democrats started with 7 candidates with no opposition
- Democrats won all 9 of the races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
- Democrats won 0 of the 2 races in which they were projected as “Favored.”
Click here to see the UPDATED list of all 50 Senate races with winners v/s forecasts. (The new North Carolina House is now 77 Republicans and 43 Democrats. Details will follow.)
Congratulations to all of the winners!
And to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes. Democrats. Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.
We all know exactly what you are feeling right now. It hurts. Really bad.
Don’t quit. This state needs good people like you.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Early Voting Stats Shows 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, Obama no longer has the early voting advantage that he enjoyed in 2008. As for North Carolina in 2012, Democrats are down 3.85% in early
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Early Voting Stats Shows 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney
According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, Obama no longer has the early voting advantage that he enjoyed in 2008.
As for North Carolina in 2012, Democrats are down 3.85% in early voting turnout compared to 2008, and Republicans are up 1.46%. That’s a net GOP gain of 5.28%. John Davis Political Report, 11/5/2012
Monday, November 5, 2012 Vol. V, No. 39 1:13 pm
If Mitt Romney has neutralized President Obama’s 2008 early voting advantage, he will win.
Obama’s strategic advantage has always been the ground game: voter registration and turnout. That was how he won in 2008. A ground game requires tens of thousands of enthusiastic volunteers. In 2008, Obama had them and the GOP didn’t. In 2012, the GOP has seized the enthusiastic volunteers advantage, thereby neutralizing the early voting turnout advantage.
According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, it was anticipated that Obama would not achieve his 2008 early voting advantage.
Romano cited a Pew Research Center report that says neither Obama nor Romney “has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”
Further evidence of the shifting early voting fortunes favoring Romney can be found in a study by George Mason University of requested mail ballots in key swing states. Example:
In Florida, 406,634 registered Democrats have not returned their mail ballots compared to 362,920 Republicans. In comparison, registered Democrats have returned 700,970 mail ballots compared to 781,043 Republicans.
As to overall early voting turnout, according to the United States Elections Project, maintained by George Mason University, a total of 31,660,358 Americans voted early in 2012, down from the 40,592,111 who voted early in 2008 (30.6% of 132,653,958 voted early in 2008).
Although North Carolina has about 120,000 more early voters than in 2008, the percent of the total vote is less (41.8% in 2008; 41.3% in 2012) due to overall registration growing from 6.3 million voters to 6.6 million during the past 4 year.
North Carolina Early Voting Shifts 5.3% in Favor of Republicans
As for North Carolina in 2012, a loss of 3.85% among Democratic early voting turnout compared to 2008, and a gain of 1.46% for Republicans compared to 2008, has yielded a net GOP gain of 5.28%.
2008 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,618,419 of 6,264,733 (41.8%)
- Democrats 51.52%
- Republicans 30.01%
- Unaffiliateds 18.4%
- Libertarians
2012 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,738,947 of 6,631,904 (41.3%)
- Democrats 47.67%
- Republicans 31.44
- Unaffiliateds 20.66%
- Libertarians 0.22%
In addition to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, a great website for seeing early voting stats is www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/, which is maintained by the Civitas Institute.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
The Great Chapel Hill Obama Bumper Sticker Hunt; If he has lost Chapel Hill, he has lost the race. “Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama. Today, it’s cool to be independent.” Student in Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 Seminar at UNC-Chapel Hill Monday, October 29, 2012 Vol. V, No. 37
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The Great Chapel Hill Obama Bumper Sticker Hunt; If he has lost Chapel Hill, he has lost the race.
“Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama. Today, it’s cool to be independent.”
Student in Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 Seminar at UNC-Chapel Hill
Monday, October 29, 2012 Vol. V, No. 37 10:13 am
Last Thursday, October 25, I had the high honor and distinct pleasure of speaking to Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 seminar at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
A high honor. Hodding Carter was U.S. State Department spokesman during the Iran Hostage Crisis from November 1979 to January 1981; one of the most recognized faces in America during the ordeal. He briefed the nation nightly on network news broadcasts.
A distinct pleasure. I was surrounded by 24 very intelligent, uninhibited, diverse, inquisitive and suspicious leaders of tomorrow. Suspicious because I am from another time. They share the here and now together; staring out with great concern at the pieces being left behind by my generation. Justifiably uncertain. Of our value to them.
I was early. Hodding Carter said to meet him at 1:50 in front of Graham Memorial Hall next to Morehead Planetarium. It was 1 o’clock. I was at the light at South and Country Club Road.
I decided to ride around campus and look at all of the political activity. After all, it was a presidential election year. If 2012 was anything like 2008 in Chapel Hill, there would be Obama posters in dorm windows, signs of Obama enthusiasm everywhere; students wearing Obama tee shirts, bumper stickers on every car. Hope. Change.
I turned right on Country Club Road. The Department of Dramatic Art. Battle Park. The Forest Theatre. Cameron Avenue. Hummmmmmmmmmm. No sign of political life.
On past the Old Well; student crossings. No Obama tee shirts. Through the intersection at South Columbia Street. Left at The Carolina Inn onto Pittsboro Street. No bumper stickers.
I continued straight at the light to Manning Drive; the hospital complex. Students coming up the hill. No sign of political life.
In 2008, my twin sons were university seniors; one at North Carolina State University in Raleigh and one at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Both campuses were hotbeds of Obama enthusiasm. Over 5,000 students at NC State in Reynolds Coliseum to hear Michele Obama; 18,000 in the Dean Dome at Chapel Hill to hear Barack Obama.
I spent a lot of time on both campuses that year, witnessing first hand the excitement among young voters for Barack Obama. There were signs everywhere; folding tables and chairs around campus and on Franklin and Hillsborough Streets as young volunteers urged their fellow students to register and vote early. For Obama.
I turned right into Hinton James Dormitory. It was my son’s freshman dorm. I wanted to count the Obama signs in the windows. Hundreds of windows. Hummmmmm. Not one Obama sign.
I glanced around the parking lot. No Obama bumper stickers. Curious. Very curious.
Back out onto Manning and right into the parking lot at Koury and Ehringhaus. Hundreds of cars. No Obama signs in windows. No Obama bumper stickers. Not one.
Right on Ridge Road and left on Stadium Drive. Parker. Teague. Kenan Stadium. No signs. No tee shirts. No bumper stickers. No sign of political life.
Right on to South Road. UNC Student Stores; Student Union. Student crossings. Nothing.
I began to feel like the Greek philosopher Diogenes with his lamp in search of one honest man. Surely there was one Obama bumper sticker in Chapel Hill. One tee shirt. One sign.
Left onto Raleigh Street. Winston. Conner. Alexander. Lewis. Everett. Stacy. Graham. Aycock. Past the Coker Arboretum. McIver. Kenan. Alderman. Spencer. No signs. No tee shirts.
Left onto East Franklin Street. Surely in downtown Chapel Hill, the fulcrum of liberal activism in North Carolina, there will be plenty of Obama signs and tee shirts and bumper stickers.
I parked in the parking lot at the planetarium, right next to Graham Memorial Hall where I was to meet Hodding Carter at 1:50. It was only 1:20. I had plenty of time to count the Obama bumper stickers in downtown Chapel Hill.
I walked towards downtown across the street from McAlister’s Deli and the Post Office, careful to look back at the bumpers of cars parked in the other direction. Nope.
Then I spotted one of those message boards where everyone posts flyers about upcoming concerts and study abroad programs. Hummmmmm. I see Delta Rae is playing at the Carolina Theatre on Friday, November 16. Justin Townes Earle and Tift Merritt are at Cat’s Cradle on Thursday, November 15. Not one Obama poster.
Newspaper racks. Bus stops. Trash cans. Parking meters. No Obama signs. Students coming and going. No tee shirts. Cars in every metered spot. No bumper stickers.
Hummmmmmmmmmmm.
I crossed Franklin Street at Spanky’s and walked back towards Graham. A street preacher handed me a “Are you right with the Lord” tract. Cold Stone Creamery. Varsity Theater. Trees. Benches. Bikes. Julian’s. No Obama signs.
Chapel Hill was a political ghost town.
Another message board. Swing Dance lessons Wednesdays in November at the ArtsCenter in Carrboro. Study Abroad Scholarships at www.goabroad.com. Eat at Flaming Amy’s Burrito Barn in Wilmington. Not one Obama sign.
I crossed Franklin Street near Graham Memorial Hall. There among the giant oaks stood Silent Sam, the statue of a Confederate soldier erected in 1913 by the United Daughters of the Confederacy. I waited there for Hodding Carter, a great American journalist and Civil Rights pioneer; pondering the waning political fortunes of America’s first African-American president.
Just four years earlier, Barack Obama had inspired thousands of young people on more than 100 college campuses across North Carolina to do the hard work of winning campaigns. They registered and turned voters out in record numbers.
Exit polling in North Carolina showed that voters between 18 and 29 chose Obama over John McCain by a whopping 74%-26% margin. Obama carried the state by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast. Without enthusiastic young people, this state’s 15 electoral votes would have gone to McCain. But, where are the signs in the dorm windows today? The bumper stickers?
My NC State and UNC-Chapel Hill twin sons went to President Obama’s inauguration. Drove all night and stood in the freezing cold for hours from sunup to noon just to witness the historic occasion. I was so proud of them. Proud about how far we have come since my Great Grandfather, John Davis, fought along side Silent Sam.
At precisely 1:50, Hodding Carter came walking up the sidewalk. We chatted a minute about our children and friends we have in common in Mississippi. He told me about his class. He said that it was the most interesting group he had taught in six years.
Soon I was surrounded by 24 very intelligent, uninhibited, diverse, inquisitive and suspicious leaders of tomorrow. Suspicious because I am from another time. They share the here and now together; staring out with great concern at the pieces being left behind by my generation. Justifiably uncertain. Of our value to them.
Unlike my generation, there is not a racist sentiment in any of these students. Diversity is not a goal for them. That’s old school. Diversity is today’s social norm. Today’s generation does not merely tolerate differences, they celebrate differences.
If President Obama loses his race for a second term, it will be because he disappointed his base on matters of the economy. Jobs. Unemployment. Debt. Disappointed his base.
I suspect that most of Hodding Carter’s students will vote for President Obama. I also suspect that they are not volunteering their time to turn out voters in record numbers this year; that they do not have Obama posters on their dorm walls.
I asked the class why there were no signs of life for Obama on campus. One student replied, “Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama. Today, it’s cool to be independent.”
For whatever reasons, the enthusiasm that I saw four years ago on the campuses of North Carolina State University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill for Barack Obama is gone. The campuses look like political ghost towns.
I never found one Obama bumper sticker last Thursday in Chapel Hill.
If President Obama has lost the enthusiastic support of Chapel Hill, he has lost the race.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Mitt Romney will be the Next U.S. President Site: Grove Park Inn, Asheville; October 4, 2012. Event: North Carolina Forestry Association Annual Meeting. Scene: Audience member asks, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President. Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?” Answer: “Yes, I changed
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Mitt Romney will be the Next U.S. President
Site: Grove Park Inn, Asheville; October 4, 2012.
Event: North Carolina Forestry Association Annual Meeting.
Scene: Audience member asks, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President. Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?”
Answer: “Yes, I changed my opinion last night after the presidential debate in Denver … because of two words: unity and enthusiasm. Up until then, Republicans were not united or enthusiastic about Romney. Today they are.”
Friday, October 26, 2012 Vol. V, No. 36 1:13 pm
Dedicated to the memory of Bob Slocum, Jr., Executive Vice President of the North Carolina Forestry Association, who died October 16, 2012
On Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Mitt Romney will be elected President of the United States.
Two powerful forces at play argue for a Romney win. One, Republicans are united and enthusiastic about Romney. For Romney not just against Obama. Two, President Obama’s 2008 base of support is not united and not enthusiastic. Disappointed.
The turning point was the first presidential debate in Denver. Romney won by a record 72% according to Gallup’s national survey of debate watchers. Only 20% thought Obama won.
- Romney’s 52-point win is the largest presidential debate win Gallup has ever measured
- In 2008, Gallup showed Obama as the winner in all three debates over John McCain
On October 3, 2012, Mitt Romney accomplished something every conservative in American would have loved to have done: he defeated President Barack Obama, a liberal, in an ideological argument about the economy in front of 67 million people. Enthusiasm kindled. Unity fused.
Reluctant Republicans joined with Romney stalwarts. Religious right Republicans. Tea Party Republicans. Libertarian Republicans. Business moderate Republicans. United. Excited.
The results were apparent right away. According to the Washington Post-ABC News Poll conducted October 10-13, the number of Romney voters “Very enthusiastic” about supporting him is 62%, up from 48% in late September and 26% in late May. In other words, enthusiasm for Romney among his supporters has grown by 161% since the May survey.
An even more significant number in the poll in measuring Romney’s potential: only 31% of John McCain’s supporters were “very enthusiastic” about him in October of 2008; Romney 62%.
For emphasis: After the first debate, Mitt Romney’s “very enthusiastic” support percent doubled that of John McCain’s at the same time four years ago.
- 31% of John McCain’s supporters were “very enthusiastic” about him in October 2008
- 62% of Mitt Romney’s supporters are “very enthusiastic” about him in October 2012
First Signs of Disenchantment with Obama came in Fall 2009
Disenchantment in the Obama camp was evident within months of his inauguration in 2009. According to Gallup, President Obama’s job approval after his first week in office was 69%. By that fall, his job approval had plummeted to 50%. Year-end, 48%.
Two states had governors races in the fall of 2009. Despite personal visits and impassioned appeals by Obama, Republicans won in Virginia and New Jersey. Low turnout among African-Americans. Low turnout among young people. Shifting loyalties of independent voters.
According to exit polling:
- Only 8% of the 18-to-24-year-old voters turned out in New Jersey (17% in 2008)
- Only 10% of the 18-to-24-year-olds turned out in Virginia (21% in 2008).
Virginia gubernatorial winner Bob McDonnell received 62% of the independent votes, with Democrat Creigh Deeds capturing only 37%. In New Jersey, GOP gubernatorial winner Chris Christie received 58% of the independent votes, with Democrat Corzine capturing only 31%.
Then came the special election for U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts in January 2010. Victory denied. Obama’s influence again ignored. That fall, American voters flipped 65 U.S. House seats from Democrat to Republican. Largest gain by either party since 1948.
Where were the enthusiastic Obama volunteers from 2008? Vanished in the fog of uncertainty that accompanies unemployment and underemployment.
On October 8, a new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll concluded: “The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.” Disappointed.
I did not see the enthusiasm and unity for Romney coming
Throughout this election cycle, I have hesitated to call the race for Romney because of two critical factors: Republican unity and Republican enthusiasm. They were in doubt. Despite growing signs of a disenchanted Obama base, there were still simply too many Republicans who doubted Romney’s conservative bona fides.
Then came Wednesday, October 3, 2012; University of Denver. Mitt Romney accomplished something every conservative in America would have loved to have done: he defeated President Barack Obama, a liberal, in an ideological argument about the economy in front of 67 million people. Enthusiasm kindled. Unity fused.
I watched the debate in my room at the Grove Park Inn, the same hotel where President Obama stayed in 2008 when he prepared for his first debate against John McCain. I was there for a speech to the Annual Meeting of the North Carolina Forestry Association. The speech was written; the PowerPoint presentation was prepared saying Obama would win a second term.
Then came Mitt Romney’s 52-point win in the first presidential debate. Largest presidential debate win Gallup has ever measured. The same Barack Obama who had won all three debates against John McCain in 2008 just lost. Lost big.
I turned my laptop on and opened my PowerPoint presentation. For the first time in this election cycle I typed, “Romney likely winner of U.S. Presidential race.” I had always said that he would carry North Carolina. Now, I believed he would take it all.
After my speech to the Forestry Association the next morning, during the Q&A, a member of the audience asked, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President. Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?”
I replied, “Yes, I changed my opinion last night after the presidential debate in Denver … because of two words: unity and enthusiasm. Up until then, Republicans were not united or enthusiastic about Romney. Today they are.”
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND