It’s All Over for Obama in North Carolina as Romney Surges Ahead. Republicans on track to dominate Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches Question from CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Monday, October 22, to Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action: “Has he [Obama] given up on North Carolina?” Paul Begala: “Yes.”
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It’s All Over for Obama in North Carolina as Romney Surges Ahead. Republicans on track to dominate Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches
Question from CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Monday, October 22, to Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action: “Has he [Obama] given up on North Carolina?” Paul Begala: “Yes.”
Tuesday, October 23, 2012 Vol. V, No. 35 11:13 am
Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action, the same Paul Begala who was Chief Strategist for 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign, dropped a political bombshell yesterday when he told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that President Obama was giving up on North Carolina.
“Paul, one quick question to you,” said Wolf Blitzer during a live CNN interview, “Has he given up on North Carolina?” Begala replied, “Yes.” Watch the interview here.
Now comes the news that Begala is walking back his comment about Obama giving up on North Carolina. Walk back all you want Paul, Obama cannot carry North Carolina in 2012.
All hopes for a political comeback for North Carolina Democrats this year were already in doubt. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010 thanks to President Obama.
Today, Real Clear Politics has Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina by 50% to 45%. Romney has led in all North Carolina polls conducted in October. It’s all over.
This morning’s news that North Carolina is among the states for a final Obama TV ad blitz is panning for fool’s gold. You can’t win here with a weak, leaderless, underfunded, unenthusiastic state Democratic Party, especially against a united, well-led, well-funded and enthusiastic Republican Party.
North Carolina Democrats have no political warfare generals; Perdue “the worst job approval of any Governor in the country” according to Public Policy Polling, a Democratic poll firm. Eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898. A lame duck.
All of the political advantages enjoyed by North Carolina Democrats in 2008 have by seized by North Carolina Republicans, especially money, unity and enthusiasm among volunteers.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s the key game-changing structural deficiency for the state Democrats. The other is the loss of enthusiasm for Obama.
Enthusiasm for Obama is Gone; Growing in GOP Ranks
On April 19, 2012, in the John Davis Political Report, Vol. V, No. 14, I wrote, “President Obama cannot win a second term without the army of enthusiastic young campaign volunteers responsible for his first victory, and thus far they are nowhere to be found. They have not abandoned the cause; they have abandoned the leader of the cause.”
Four years ago you could not have walked on any campus in North Carolina without being accosted by an enthusiastic Obama volunteer. Today, they are nowhere to be found. Too many unemployed or working somewhere part time; forced to live with their parents after college.
In 2008, Obama carried the state by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast despite a dominant state Democratic Party and a year-long commitment of a full compliment of political resources; 47 headquarters staffed by 400 paid field organizers who coordinated the get-out-the-vote work of 10,000 enthusiastic volunteers. Obama never had a chance in 2012 without a strong state Democratic Party … and those 10,000 enthusiastic volunteers.
With Romney surging ahead of Obama in North Carolina, and the state GOP enjoying the advantage of the thousands of enthusiastic volunteers, Republicans are on track to dominate the elections in all three branches of state government, executive, legislative and judicial.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011 The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election. John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report Friday, October 12, 2012 Vol. V, No. 33 9:13 am Exclusive Scoop in 2011 On Friday morning, July 1, 2011,
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North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011
The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.
John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Friday, October 12, 2012 Vol. V, No. 33 9:13 am
Exclusive Scoop in 2011
On Friday morning, July 1, 2011, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first to see the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative remappers. The headline read, North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre Fighting Chance.
A historic Republican advantage was in the making. When the final maps were enacted into law on July 28, 2011, only 3 districts of 13 were safe for Democrats. By the time the filing deadline rolled around on February 29, 2012, Congressmen Brad Miller (Wake County) and Heath Shuler (Haywood) conceded to the Republican advantages in their districts and announced that they would not seek reelection.
Two Democratic Congressmen, Mike McIntyre (Robeson) and Larry Kissell (Montgomery), decided to fight against the odds for 
reelection. As last year’s headline read, McIntyre has a fighting chance. Kissell does not.
Congressman McIntyre is a seasoned campaigner who can count his war chest by the millions of dollars; a classic Eastern North Carolina Blue Dog Democrat who has the endorsement of the National Rifle Association and over 50 Southeastern North Carolina mayors. Former state Senator David Rouzer is a newcomer to big league politics, and may be out-muscled despite the favorable leaning of the district.
Larry Kissell’s chances for reelection are slim-to-none. The most loyal Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County were carved out of this one-time Swing district held by Republican Robin Hayes (Cabarrus) for five terms. It is now safe territory for GOP challenger Richard Hudson (Cabarrus).
Bottom line: The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Romney’s Debate Win Closes the Deal with Reluctant Republicans and the 5-point Gap with Obama “Registered voters’ preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday’s presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.” Gallup, October
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Romney’s Debate Win Closes the Deal with Reluctant Republicans and the 5-point Gap with Obama
“Registered voters’ preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday’s presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.” Gallup, October 8, 2012
October 8: A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 52% to 46% among voters “extremely likely to vote.”
Monday, October 8, 2012 Vol. V, No. 32 3:13 pm
An ideological rout in front of 67 million people; a record 52-point win
Here is what conservative Republican presidential holdouts witnessed last Wednesday night during the first debate in Denver: 1. Mitt Romney; 2. overwhelmingly defeated liberal President Barack Obama; 3. in an ideological argument; 4. in front of 67 million people.
For emphasis: Mitt Romney overwhelmingly defeated liberal President Barack Obama in an ideological argument in front of 67 million people. If you are a conservative Republican, it doesn’t get much better than that.
It was a rout; an ideological rout. Gallup says 72% of those who watched the debate thought Romney did the better job; 10% said Obama did the better job. More Democrats thought Romney won (49%) than thought Obama won (39%). Gallup says a 52-point win is a record.
But get this: 97% of all Republicans said Romney did the better job in the debate; 2% Obama. I could hear the roar of the right all across the land. Mitt’s in. He’s now one of them.
The first presidential debate at the University of Denver eliminated two major stumbling blocks Romney faced with the Republican base: unity and enthusiasm. Now, thanks to the rout, the ideological rout, Romney has endeared himself to conservative Republican holdouts.
NC GOP ground game claims 500,000 voter contacts last week alone
Unity and enthusiasm fuel political momentum. Momentum means money, volunteers, a greater willingness to display support and higher turnout of voters. Did Romney’s debate win in Denver spark GOP unity and enthusiasm in North Carolina?
Today’s News & Observer’s Under the Dome carried a story titled, NC GOP says it contacted 200,000 voters on Saturday, in which the North Carolina Republican Party claims that “nearly 3,000 volunteers made 110,000 calls and knocked on more than 90,000 doors” as a part of it’s “Tarheel Turnout” Saturday this past weekend. They also claim that their ground game organization made 500,000 voter contacts last week alone.
Granted, those numbers are impressive. However, the most politically significant note in the story was the claim that last week’s presidential debate sparked a “spike in volunteers.”
Obama would not have carried North Carolina in 2008, and Beverly Perdue would not have been elected governor, had it not been for their record-setting voter registration and turnout machine. Take away the ground game advantage and Democrats are in for a long night in November.
The debate closed the deal with reluctant Republicans, sparked GOP unity and enthusiasm, and closed the 5-point gap with Obama.
Romney leads among “extremely likely to vote” by 52% to 46%
According to Gallup, President Obama led Mitt Romney by 5 points prior to the debate (Pre-debate Sept 30 – Oct 2 Obama 50% to Romney’s 45%). Looking only at the three days immediately after the debate, Obama has 47%; Romney 47%. From a 5-point lead to a tie.
Today’s Real Clear Politics polling average for the time period September 26 – October 7 shows Obama at 48.3% and Romney at 47.2%.
MOST INTERESTING POLL OF THE DAY: A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney nationally by only 1 point, a statistical tie. However, if you look at voters extremely likely to vote, Romney leads by 52% to 46%.
The most telling result of the poll is that only 73% of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote. Romney supporters? 86% say they are “extremely likely to vote.”
For emphasis: among voters extremely likely to vote, Romney leads Obama by 52% to 46%. Key paragraph in the poll report:
The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.
The first presidential debate at the University of Denver eliminated two major stumbling blocks Romney faced with the Republican base: unity and enthusiasm. Now, thanks to the rout, the ideological rout, Romney has endeared himself to conservative holdouts and is leading in the most important category of polling in a virtually tied race: enthusiasm.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections
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North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections
“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come.” John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Wednesday, September 26, 2012 Vol. V, No. 31 11:13 am
Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC House Forecasts
In 2012, Republicans will win the House majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century. Click here to see the complete list of NC House
races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.
Key Conclusions: First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership. Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.
These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years. Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come.
- Winner: Has no further opposition. Democrats 22; Republicans 25.
- Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge). Democrats 16; Republicans 45.
- Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district. Democrats 7; Republicans 5.
- Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders. Democrats 0; Republicans 0.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections
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North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections
“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.” John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Tuesday, September 25, 2012 Vol. V, No. 30 11:13 am
Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC Senate Forecasts
In 2012, Republicans will win the Senate majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century. Click here to see the complete list of NC Senate
races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.
Key Conclusions: First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership. Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.
These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years. Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.
- Winner: Has no further opposition. Democrats 7; Republicans 11.
- Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge). Democrats 9; Republicans 18.
- Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district. Democrats 2; Republicans 2.
- Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders. Democrats 1; Republicans 1.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, September 26, the John Davis Political Report will publish a forecast of all 120 NC House races.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles. Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm First Generation of Leaders
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Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm
First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898
The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.
Collapsed. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010. Lost the state Senate. Lost the state House of Representatives. First time since 1898.
No political warfare generals. The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012. Including President Obama.
Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term. Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008. Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898. A lame duck.
In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.
And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats. McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.
In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand. Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand. McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall. Dalton: $2.6 million.
The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.
The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:
NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand. This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party. Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.
North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Fact: Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.
Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift
According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans. That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans. There’s more.
At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans. That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.
For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.
Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters. Obama volunteers.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012 Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm Ladies and
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North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012
Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm
Ladies and gentlemen, the Governor of the Great State of North Carolina and Mrs. McCrory
If the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government. For the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
In 2012, for the first time since the 1800s, Republicans will be fighting from a position of partisan strength afforded by power, money, maps, message, momentum, strong leadership and candidates, and most importantly, party unity.
Conversely, for the first time since the 1800s, Democrats will be fighting from a position of partisan weakness resulting from a loss of political power, loss of the political fund raising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, loss of unity, loss of strong, ideologically flexible political leaders, and the loss of a united base.
Case in point: The Governor’s Race. Today, July 11, polling and campaign fundraising results were announced that put the governor’s race solidly in the “McCrory’s to lose” category.
- July 11 report filed by Walter Dalton with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he has only $714,000 as of July 1, compared to McCrory’s $4.4 million.
- July 11 poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat polling firm, shows GOP nominee Pat McCrory ahead of Democrat nominee Walter Dalton by 7 points, 43% to 36%.
- McCrory leads among Independent voters by 47% to 25%.
- McCrory has the support of 79% of Republicans; only 63% of Democrats support Dalton.
McCrory’s Strength as Candidate Seen in during Historic Democrat-friendly Year
In 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory ONLY because of a structurally sound Democratic Party, a 2-to-1 spending advantage and the commitment made by the Obama campaign in North Carolina.
The Obama campaign spent millions on a statewide organization operating out of 47 headquarters. A paid staff of 400 coordinated the work of 10,000 volunteers. The Obama ground game broke all records for new registered voters and early voting turnout. They spent $1.7 million just on straight ticket voter education.
However, despite outspending McCrory $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic voter registration and turnout year for Democrats, Perdue barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
That is not just a sign of how weak Beverly Perdue was in 2008, it is a sign of how strong Pat McCrory was in 2008. Now, it is Pat McCrory with the spending advantage and a structurally sound Republican Party backing him up. McCrory has $4.4 million cash as of July 1, 2012. Dalton has $714,000. Game over in the governor’s race.
Furthermore, the North Carolina Democratic Party is not structurally capable of stopping a Republican stampede in 2012 from the top of the ballot down. I will develop the topic of structural deficiencies in the next report.
Meanwhile, North Carolina Governor’s race is McCrory’s to lose, and Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Why Romney Must Distance Himself from George W. Bush, the President with a Job Approval as Low as Nixon’s after Watergate “Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too.” Peggy Noonan, The Long Race Has Begun, Wall
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Why Romney Must Distance Himself from George W. Bush, the President with a Job Approval as Low as Nixon’s after Watergate
“Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too.” Peggy Noonan, The Long Race Has Begun, Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2012
Monday, July 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 21 2:13 pm
The Bush Family Will Understand
I do a lot of public speaking, primarily to business trade association groups. I frequently see the look of bewilderment on the faces of the “anybody but Obama” audience members when I state that President Barack Obama’s job approval is 48% and that at 50% he wins a second term.
The “anybody but Obama” audience members cannot conceive of how it could be remotely possible that Obama could have a near-50% job approval in light of his record in dealing with the nation’s economic crisis; the debt problem, the deficit spending, the unemployment.
That’s when I remind them that President George W. Bush’s job approval was 25% in October of 2008, as low as President Nixon’s job approval after Watergate in 1974 or as low as President Truman’s job approval after he fired Gen. Douglas MacArthur in 1951.
I can think of no political variable keeping President Obama within striking range of second term than the fear of a third Bush administration under Mitt Romney’s leadership.
On June 1, 2012, Peggy Noonan, President Reagan’s primary speech writer, wrote a commentary in The Wall Street Journal titled, The Long Race Has Begun. The last two paragraphs are startling in their depth of political wisdom, calling for Romney to face Republican mistakes:
Mr. Romney should face what didn’t work the past 12 years. Republicans took some wrong turns, and they know it. Centrists and independents know it, too. Candor here, delivered in a spirit of honesty, without animus, would seem not like a repudiation but a refreshment. And this would be deeply undercutting of Mr. Obama, who needs this race to be a fight between two parties, not a fight between a past that didn’t work and a future that can.
The Bush family will understand. They respect politics, and its practitioners.
It would take away a key political advantage from President Obama
Today, July 2, 2012, Molly K. Hooper, writing for The Hill, says in her commentary titled, GOP lawmakers: Romney needs to distance himself from Bush, that if Romney distanced himself from the mistakes of the Bush administration, it “would take away a key political advantage from President Obama, who has repeatedly suggested Romney would embrace Bush-like policies in the White House.”
As Gallup polling has consistently shown, more voters still blame Bush for today’s economic problems than blame Obama. Taking a stand against the irresponsible fiscal policy of the Bush and Obama eras is politically safe with independent voters and the GOP-leaning Tea Partiers. The Tea Party swarmed into the national political arena because of their frustration with big spending conservative Republicans, not just big spending liberal Democrats!
On May 30, 2012, Jonah Goldberg, writing for the National Review Online, says in his commentary titled, Memo to Mitt: Run Against Bush, that Republicans during the Bush era helped create today’s economic problems and “they should concede the point.” Goldberg writes: “Romney is under no obligation to defend the Republican performance during the Bush years. Indeed, if he’s serious about fixing what’s wrong with Washington, he has an obligation not to defend it.”
Goldberg concludes, “Voters don’t want a president to rein in runaway Democratic spending; they want one to rein in runaway Washington spending.”
Romney’s two big political rewards for facing Republican mistakes
According to Gallup today, July 2, 2012, President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 43%, among registered voters in the latest Gallup Daily tracking seven-day average, which spans June 25-July 1.
There can be no explanation for why President Obama is consistently ahead of Romney in the presidential trial heat polls, and why his job approval is still at 48%, other than most Americans still see the Bush administration and congressional Republicans of the last decade as the instigators of the nation’s economic crisis.
There are two big political rewards waiting for Romney if he begins to place equal blame on Bush and Obama for the nation’s history of irresponsible spending. One is integrity. As Peggy Noonan wrote, Candor here, delivered in a spirit of honesty, without animus, would seem not like a repudiation but a refreshment.
The other reward is independent voters. They could care less about which party solves the problems of the day. They just want leadership with integrity who they can trust to stay focused on those problems and not sell out to their party.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13
[More…]
UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem
Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13 pm
Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Last Monday, May 14, 2012, I wrote that after decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles; that Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; and she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s.
On May 17, Public Policy Polling released the results of a new North Carolina survey showing Perdue’s disapproval rating the highest ever, with 57% of voters disapproving of the job she is doing to only 31% who approve.
Quoting PPP, a Democratic polling firm, “… that 57% disapproval is the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling.”
- Among Democrats, Perdue has 50% approval; 34% disapproval.
- Among Republicans, Perdue has a 7% approval; 87% disapproval.
- Among Independents, Perdue has a 27% approval; 64% disapproval.
It’s no wonder that many writers are beginning to report that national Democrats are having buyers’ remorse over the selection of North Carolina for their convention. A bit more vetting by the DNC and they would have seen that under Perdue’s leadership the state party has collapsed.
National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
On Friday, May 18, 2012, National Journal, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected non-partisan political research organizations, unveiled the first installment of their Hotline’s monthly gubernatorial rankings, listing the governorships most likely to flip partisan control this fall. North Carolina is #1 on the list of the top ten states likely to see a partisan change in the governor’s mansion. “We see North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s seat as more likely to wind up in Republican hands,” writes National Journal.
National Journal Forecasts McCrory Win: “It has been more than 20 years since a Republican won the governorship, but former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is looking like a heavy favorite against Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton,” concludes National Journal.
CNN: Obama’s North Carolina math problem
CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby wrote a story on Friday, May 18, 2012, titled Obama’s North Carolina math problem, in which he concluded that the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to math.
Hamby points out what I have concluded for years: “Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.”
Hamby quoted a “senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity” as saying that “white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.”
“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”
CNN news anchor Wolf Blitzer interviewed James Carville, President Clinton’s campaign manager, about the story, Obama’s North Carolina math problem. Carville agreed with Blitzer’s statement that the numbers do not look good.
With PPP stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
Take advantage of the July 4 Sale! A 20% discount on the Premium Annual Subscription … now only $196. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures. Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican
[More…]
NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm
Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican Leadership Emergence
Forecast: A historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives.
The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party during the past 10 years and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party argue for a new era of GOP dominance in the Old North State.
Strong leadership is essential for a winning political organization. Without strong leaders, party factions will turn on each other rather than stand united against the opposition.
After decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles:
- Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s; and she can’t stop the party Executive Committee from keeping the embattled state party chairman after she called for his resignation.
- Perdue’s predecessor, Gov. Easley, was so indifferent to the Democratic Party that he didn’t go to the state or national conventions … or speak to the NAACP state convention.
- Democrats have lost the decisive influence of Eastern NC because they do not have an Eastern NC candidate in the governor’s race like they’ve had for decades: Jim Hunt, D-Wilson; Mike Easley, D-Brunswick; Beverly Perdue, D-Craven.
- Eastern NC Christian social conservative Democrats, black and white, are disappointed with the party leadership’s stand against Amendment One (Obama, Perdue, Dalton).
- Eastern NC Democratic influence in the General Assembly collapsed with the end of the era of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, and with the resignation of Majority Leader Sen. Tony Rand, D-Cumberland. Contributing to the decline was the retirement of powerful insiders like Sen. R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, President of the Senate Caucus; Charlie Albertson, D-Duplin, Agriculture Committee Chairman; and with the loss of Appropriations Committee Co-Chair A.B. Swindell (D-Nash).
Furthermore, Democrats have been rocked by an era of scandal including former party leaders like Gov. Easley, Speaker Black, Agriculture Commissioner Phipps, U.S. Rep. Frank Balance, Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards, Sen. R.C. Soles, Rep. Thomas Wright, and numerous members of the staffs and campaign teams of governor’s Easley and Perdue.
North Carolina No Longer a Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
How could the Obama political organization misread North Carolina so badly?
- Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
The big mistake the Obama camp made was in thinking that Obama carried North Carolina because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Wrong. He was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
- Since 2010, Democrats have lost the majority party/majority district status in NC. And, they no longer have the leverage of political power to gain a fundraising advantage.
- Since 2010, Republicans have gained the leverage of power for a fundraising edge AND 30 Senate districts likely to elect a Republican to only 18 for the Democrats. Republicans only need 26 to keep their majority in the Senate. There are 70 GOP-friendly House districts to only 42 for the Democrats. Republicans need 61 to keep their majority.
- The Republican advantage in the 13 congressional districts has grown from 7 to 10.
The lack of strong Democratic leaders in North Carolina gives the Obama camp no other choice but to begin to discretely redirect the campaign’s North Carolina resources to greener pastures.
Republican Leaders Strengthen; GOP Base Solidifies Over Amendment One
Concurrent with the collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party has been the rise a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party. Those who led the successful battle in 2010, like Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger from Eden and Majority Leader Harry Brown from Jacksonville, along with Speaker Thom Tillis from Huntersville and Majority Leader Skip Stam from Apex on the House side, now wield the political power over the state budget.
Legislative leaders, along with party chairman Robin Hayes and an exceptionally talented team of political professionals, are the new best and brightest in North Carolina political circles.
In the past, disunity has kept Republicans in North Carolina from taking advantage of opportunities. The 61% to 39% rout on the Amendment One campaign was a galvanizing experience for state Republicans, leading to my analysis in The News & Observer May 9:
At a time of economic crisis it was politically risky for Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly to initiate a statewide constitutional vote on a social issue like the Marriage Amendment. However, thanks to their landslide victory on May 8, the state GOP will now enjoy a win-win of the highest order. They win the loyalty and enthusiastic support of their elated social and religious conservatives, and they neutralized the issue as fodder for Democrats in the General Election. By this fall, the Marriage Amendment controversy will be old news to just about everyone except those elated social and religions conservatives. Their victory will continue to motivate them all year to do the hard work of winning campaigns for conservatives.
Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity is what leads me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND