Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis The
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated
North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated
Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Political Conclusions
Click here to see the New NC Senate Map Proposed by the NC General Assembly
- UPDATE: 14 of North Carolina’s 100 counties have ½ of the state’s 6.1 million voters. Under the new state Senate maps, half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of those 14 counties. The counties are: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Durham, Buncombe, New Hanover, Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Pitt, Catawba and Iredell.
- UPDATE: The other half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of 86 counties.
- UPDATE: Mecklenburg County has 10% of the 50 Senate districts; Wake another 10%.
- UPDATE: During the past decade, 87 counties had a combined net population growth of 481,376, about the same as Wake and Mecklenburg combined.
- We are witness to the urbanization of political power in North Carolina.
- Under the new Senate districts, the majority party will likely be Republican for the remainder of the decade as there are 34 districts won by US Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race, 29 districts won by State Sen. Robert Pittenger in his 2008 race for lieutenant governor, and 26 districts won by US Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her last race against U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan in 2008.
- The GOP advantage in the number of Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican and the likely first ever Republican fund-raising advantage argue for a long-term Republican Senate majority in North Carolina.
- In 2008, there were 30 Senate districts that gave McCain a 50% or greater win, with 22 districts giving McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
- Under the new maps, there are 34 Senate districts that would have given McCain a 50%-or-greater win, with 27 that would give McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
Surprises & Interesting Notes
- Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and Senate President Pro Tem, is double-bunked with Sen. Don Vaughan, a Guilford County Democrat. Burger appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (51% to 45% Perdue) and McCain (57% to 43% Obama).
- Sen. Pete Brunstetter, a Forsyth County Republican, is double-bunked with Sen. Linda Garrou, a Forsyth County Democrat. Brunstetter appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (56% to 41% Perdue) and McCain (61% to 39% Obama).
- Sen. Debbie Clary, a Cleveland County Republican, is double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Warren Daniel from Burke County. Clary announced last month her intentions to resign. Her replacement will have to face Sen. Daniel.
- Sen. Jerry Tillman, a Randolph County Republican, has been double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Harris Blake from Moore County. Randolph County will have the advantage in the Republican primary.
- CORRECTED: Only two Senate Democrats were double-bunked: Sen. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Sen. Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) reside in the new Senate District 23, including all of Orange and Chatham counties.
Most Vulnerable Incumbents
- The most vulnerable Democrat senators, not counting those who are double bunked with a Republican, are Sen. Doug Berger from Franklin County, Sen. Bill Purcell from Scotland County, and Sen. Stan White from Dare County (Sen. Basnight’s old seat).
- The most vulnerable Republican senator, not counting those who are double bunked, is Sen. Wesley
- Meredith from Cumberland County (Sen. Tony Rand’s old seat).
- There are 9 majority-minority districts where the minority voting age population is 50% or greater. One district, Senate District 13, combines Robeson County and Columbus County to achieve a minority district that includes American Indian, Hispanic and African-Americans.
Legal Limits Established by GOP Stephenson Decision Limit GOP Gerrymandering
Republicans achieved one of the greatest political coups in North Carolina politics in 2003 by successfully litigating the radically gerrymandered maps drawn by the Democratic legislative majority following the 2000 census.
The Stephenson v. Bartlett decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court established new requirements for legislative redistricting in North Carolina that, ironically, now limit the ability of Republicans to do to Democrats what they have done to Republicans for many decades: radical partisan gerrymandering.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were 6 swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and rulings in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case, the courts in 2003 leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and 4 were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
This year, the Stephenson case has forced Republicans to comply with the following:
Voting Rights Act districts must be drawn first to ensure compliance with federal law.
- Population deviations must be within plus-or-minus 5% of the ideal district population.
- Creating districts within counties (urban counties) or by combining whole counties is required until it is no longer possible to create a district without using a part of a county.
- Example: Wake County now has 5 senate districts, 4 within the county and one in combination with all of Franklin County. Mecklenburg County has 5 districts, all within the county lines.
Before the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina looked more like a 1000-piece puzzle. After the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina look more like a state map of the counties. See the Legislative Guide to Redistricting for all law relating to remapping.
Sophisticated Mapping Technology Allows Long-range Maps
As with the congressional maps released two weeks ago, the changes in the new Senate maps are as politically significant as they are subtle, illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
Adding to the likelihood that Republicans will keep the Senate majority for the remainder of the decade is the fact that today’s remapping technology allows districts to be drawn with population growth projections.
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Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
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“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre
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“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report
Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated
North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive Analysis
Last Friday, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first in North Carolina to receive a comprehensive analysis of the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative reapportionment committees. Today, I am sending a Revised/Updated edition of that report. Information presented in bold italics has been added. There are new links with each district analysis that provides hundreds of facts about each of the proposed new districts. Check them out!
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Conclusions:
- Under the new congressional districts, the partisan advantage will shift from 7 Democratic and 6 Republican to 8 Republican and only 3 guaranteed Democratic districts, with 2 that will depend on the strengths of the candidates and the prevailing partisan winds of the given election year.
- President Obama carried 8 NC congressional districts and Sen. McCain 5 in 2008. Under the 13 new districts, Obama would only carry 3 (Butterfield, Price and Watt).
- Only 4 of the current districts gave McCain a 55%-or-greater vote in 2008 (Jones, Foxx, Myrick and McHenry). There are now 10 districts that would have voted for McCain for president at 55% or greater (all but Butterfield, Price and Watt). The same 10 districts would give US Sen. Burr a 60%-or-greater victory.
- Gov. Perdue carried 9 of the 13 congressional districts in 2008, all but one greater than 50%. Under the new districts, Perdue would carry 5 (Butterfield, Jones, Price, McIntyre and Watt).
- GOP gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory only carried 4 congressional districts in 2008 (Foxx, Coble, Myrick and McHenry). If the election were held under the new congressional districts, he would add Elmers, Kissell, Shuler and Miller to his wins.
Key District-by-District Conclusions
- U.S. House District 1, currently held by Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 68% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 2, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Renee Elmers, has become a significantly more Republican-friendly district. This district was held throughout the last decade by Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge. The new district has 39% Democratic registration and 36% Republican registration, a 3% Democratic advantage. However, under the old map, Democrats enjoyed a 23% advantage with 51% registered Democrats to only 28% registered Republicans. Elmers squeaked out a win in Republican friendly 2010. She will still have to work hard to hold this seat, but the new map gives her an advantage at the starting line.
Key County Changes: Harnett County, home to both Elmers and Etheridge, is now split into three congressional districts (Price, Elmers and Coble), with about half remaining in the new congressional district. Elmers now has all of Sampson County and keeps all of Johnston County, both reliably Republican counties. This district no longer has any of the Franklin County and Nash County precincts, making it a stronger Republican opportunity district. New territory includes precincts in Wake, Cumberland and Wayne. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 3, currently held by Republican Congressman Walter Jones, will likely always elect Jones as long as he runs. Jones and his father have held this district for over four decades. However, this district is now a swing district that could be won by a strong conservative Democrat once Jones retires. Remember, there are lots of eastern North Carolina “Reagan Democrats” in this district. Democratic registration increases considerably under the new maps from 41% to 49%; Republicans lose market share from 35% to 30%. McCain would still beat Obama in this district by about 56% to 44%. However, Perdue would defeat McCrory under the new maps by 55% to 44%, whereas she beat McCrory in this congressional district in 2008 by 49% to 48.4%.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County, both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 3 has all of Duplin, Jones, Dare, Beaufort and Craven Counties, and substantial parts of Pitt, Nash and Lenoir. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 4, currently held by Democratic Congressman David Price, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a solid Democratic district where Democrats now have a 35% registration advantage over Republicans (54% Democrats to 19% Republicans, with 27% Unaffiliated).
Key County Changes: Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Orange and northern Durham with a history of voting Republican in federal races have been taken out of Price’s district and moved to Miller’s district. That’s good for Price, a Democrat, and bad for Miller, a Democrat. Precincts in southern Wake County with a history of voting Republican in federal elections have been taken out of Price’s district and put into Republican Renee Elmers’ district, a move that helps both camps. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 5, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, has a bit fewer Republicans and more Democrats but Republicans still outnumber the loyal opposition and will continue find this district a safe harbor for GOP candidates.
Key County Changes: Although Foxx loses Surry and Stokes counties to Miller, she keeps some of the most Republican districts in the state. Wilkes, Yadkin and Davie counties are 3 of the only 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932! GOP precincts in Rockingham and Forsyth counties have been taken out and put into Miller’s district. Not good for Miller. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 6, currently held by Republican Congressman Howard Coble, has fewer Republicans and more Democrats but would still choose McCain over Obama by 55% to 44%, whereas under the old configuration McCain defeated Obama by a much wider margin, 63% to 36% (Statewide: Obama 49.7%; McCain 49.4%).
Key County Changes: Coble looses his share of Davidson and Rowan, keeps all of Moore County and much of what he had in Randolph, Guilford and Alamance Counties. He picks up most of Chatham County, almost all of Lee, and portions of Harnett and Cumberland. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 7, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre, has 9% fewer Democrats but still gives McIntyre a fighting chance. Although McCain defeated Obama here under the old map by 5%, McCain would defeat Obama here under the new maps by 55% to 44%. On the other hand, Perdue would still beat Republican gubernatorial candidate McCrory here by 6 points, but not nearly as bad as the 11 point shellacking she gave him here in 2008. McIntyre maintains a fighting chance.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County (94%), both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 7 has all of Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Onslow and Pender. Democratic-friendly parts of Cumberland, Duplin and Robeson counties have been taken out of this district. McIntyre still has a fighting chance here, but not much more than a fighting chance. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 8, currently held by Democratic Congressman Larry Kissell, has been reconfigured in such a way that Kissell can no longer win. This district was held by GOP Congressman Hayes for most of the decade. It now has more registered Republicans and fewer Democrats and a shifted from a 52% Obama district to a 44% Obama district. Likewise, it has shifted from a 47% McCrory district to a 53% McCrory district. Gov. Perdue carried this district by 51% in one of the best years for voter registration and turnout of Democrats in modern political history. In the absence of the extraordinary advantage that Democrats enjoyed as a result of the historic campaign of President Obama, this now becomes a very difficult district for them to hold.
Key County Changes: Parts of three strong Republican counties, Randolph, Davidson and Rowan, have been added to House District 8, strengthening the prospects of Republicans regaining their seat once held by GOP Congressman Hayes. Several reliably Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County have been moved into Congressman Mel Watt’s U.S. House District 12, taking “about 37,000 African Americans away from Kissell,” reports the News & Observer/Charlotte Observer. Mecklenburg County had 17% of the district under the old map; only 5.5% under the new map. Cumberland County had 20% of the old district; none of the new district. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 9, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Myrick, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a GOP stronghold where Republican gubernatorial nominee McCrory, former mayor of Charlotte, won the district with 65% of the vote and would win again with 67% of the vote as it is newly configured.
Key County Changes: Myrick lost friendly precincts in Gaston County to Congressman McHenry. However, that loss is offset by a gain of GOP precincts in northern Mecklenburg County (Town of Davidson), southern Iredell County, and new precincts in northeastern Union County . Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 10, currently held by Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry, has about 5% fewer Republicans but continues as a GOP stronghold. President Obama would still lose to McCain here by 57% to 42% and Perdue would still lose to McCrory here by about that same margin.
Key County Changes: McHenry picks up all of Gaston County, his home county and solid Republican territory. He loses GOP strongholds Mitchell, Avery and Caldwell, as well as and Burke County, to Shuler’s district. McHenry picks up all of Polk County and the eastern side of Buncombe County, including Asheville. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 11, currently held by Democratic Congressman Heath Shuler, has now become a safe harbor for Republicans. The anchor for Democrats in this district has always been Buncombe County, particularly Asheville. Not only has half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, been put into Congressman McHenry’s safe Republican district, but several of the most Republican counties in the state have been moved from districts held by Congresswoman Foxx and Congressman McHenry to Heath Shuler’s district. Keep in mind, this district was held by Republican Congressman Charles Taylor for 12 years. It was already a leaning Republican district. Shuler, an exceptionally strong and attractive candidate, has been able to hang onto the seat because he is a great candidate and he votes like a Republican.
Key County Changes: Shular picks up Mitchell, Caldwell, Burke and Avery Counties. All but Burke County are reliably Republican counties. Avery and Mitchell counties are 2 of the 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover against Roosevelt in 1932. Now that’s Republican! He loses the eastern half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, and all of Polk County. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 12, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mel Watt, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 64% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 13 is currently held by Democratic Congressman Brad Miller. As expected, North Carolina Congressman Miller has been drawn into a district he cannot win. Turnabout is fair play. When he chaired the NC Senate reapportionment committee 10 years ago, he drew himself a congressional district he could not lose. Now he’s in a district he cannot win. Registered Democrats plummeted from 51% to 41% and Republicans increased their ranks from 26% to 37%. Under the current district, Obama received 59% to only 40% for McCain. Under the new map, McCain would beat Obama by 56% to 44%. Amazing! Perdue’s market share plummets under the new map from 57% to 45% while McCrory’s market share increases from 39% to 52%.
Key County Changes: Stokes and Surry counties, both reliably Republican in national elections, have been added to Miller’s district. Reliably Democratic precincts in Guilford County have been removed. Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Alamance, northern Orange and northern Durham counties have been added. Republican precincts in western Guilford County and eastern Forsyth County stay. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
Surprises & Interesting Notes:
- All 13 incumbents still reside in their new districts (no double bunking).
- There is no third majority-minority district as many had speculated.
- Despite the Republican-friendly change in the rematch in of the congressional districts, one Democrat, North Carolina Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, would still carry all of them.
- The basis of the new map is the old map. At a glance, they look very similar.
- The changes in the maps are as politically significant as they are subtle; illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
- Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.
Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
– END –
The ½ price July 4th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
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[[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/How-Far-Right-Can-GOP-Push-NC.mp3|titles=How Far Right Can GOP Push NC]] “Originally, blowback was CIA internal coinage denoting the unintended, harmful consequences – to friendly populations and military forces – when a given weapon is carelessly used.” en.wikipedia.org Search: blowback Post June 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 13 Blowback: Unintended, Harmful Consequences This report is an
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[[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/How-Far-Right-Can-GOP-Push-NC.mp3|titles=How Far Right Can GOP Push NC]]
“Originally, blowback was CIA internal coinage denoting the unintended, harmful consequences – to friendly populations and military forces – when a given weapon is carelessly used.” en.wikipedia.org Search: blowback
Post June 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 13
Blowback: Unintended, Harmful Consequences
This report is an analysis of the long-term political implications of the just-ended historic session of the North Carolina General Assembly. Although the implications apply to both parties, the primary focus is the evaluation of the legislative actions taken by the Republican majority.
First, my sincerest congratulations to the first GOP majority in the NC General Assembly since 1870 on their many good successes. You do not have to be a Republican to appreciate the inherent value of giving the leadership reins to new faces and seeing them try new ideas on intractable problems.
However, the long-term political prospects for Republicans are dependant on whether those ideas work. They are also dependent on whether Republicans try to push North Carolinians too far to the right.
Political power is like a weapon that if carelessly used will cause unintended, harmful consequences … blowback. Barack Obama and the Democratic Party found that out in 2010.
Three Secrets for a Long-term Republican Majority
Republicans won the opportunity to lead the state by staying focused on jobs and the economy during the 2010 campaigns at a time of great economic crisis. They also won the opportunity to lead the state because the voters lost confidence in the Democrats and there were no other choices on the ballot.
Most voters could care less what the party affiliation is of the team that restores financial health and fiscal sanity to our nation and state. Likewise, most voters could care less what the ideological label is pinned to the solution to turning around our dreadful unemployment numbers.
Secret #1: Lead from the Center
North Carolinians did not have a partisan conversion experience in 2010. This is not a Republican state. This is not a Democratic state. This is a center-right battleground state where no political party has a majority and where independent moderates decide the outcome of all statewide races.
Take a look at the Gallup study of the party affiliation shift away from Democrats in the states from 2008 to 2010. North Carolina is among the states with the least change in party affiliation.
Gallup 2/21/2011: Number of Solidly Democratic States Cut in Half From ’08 to ‘10
North Carolina is among the states with the least change in party affiliation.
- In February, Gallup released a study of party affiliation in the states showing that Democrats lost ground in every single state and the District of Columbia from 2008 to 2010.
- The greatest losses were in states like Rhode Island (-12.2%), New Hampshire (-11.3%), Maine (-10.9%) and Hawaii (-10.1%).
- North Carolina, with a -4.0% loss for Democrats, was among the states with the least change.
- As to rank, 43 states showed greater losses for Democrats than North Carolina.
- According to Gallup, North Carolina is a “Lean Democratic” state.
The voters who elected Barack Obama still live here.
Secret #2: Own education.
Barack Obama made a big mistake by pushing his personal agenda ahead of the priorities of a majority of the voters in the country. He wanted healthcare. They wanted jobs. It cost him and his party the majority in Congress and in many state legislatures including ours.
The priorities of the people who have denied the GOP a majority in the General Assembly for 140 years have not changed. Granted, right now their number one priority is jobs and the economy. However, despite the economic crisis, education remains a close second.
Republicans must own education.
The May poll results from Civitas show education as more important to North Carolinians than all items tested except jobs and the economy.
Civitas Institute 5/10-11/2011: May Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey
Education ranks #2 as the most important issue.
- Civitas poll question: “For each issue, tell me on a scale of 1 to 10 how important that issue is in terms of how you will vote in the next North Carolina legislative election.”
- Education was ranked #2 as the most important issue in terms of how voters will vote in the next North Carolina legislative elections, second only to “economy and jobs.”
- Click on the link above and go to questions 10 through 16 and you will see that “education” was seen as more important in deciding how to vote next year than “government spending, government ethics and corruption, taxes, immigration, and roads/highways.”
Secret #3: Compassionate conservatism.
Newt Gingrich and the congressional Republicans lost the majority after the last great Republican revolution because they were perceived as lacking in compassion. That’s why I believe that the biggest mistake made by Republicans during their first turn at the helm was using unemployment benefits as a trump card in their budget battle with the governor.
Hard-line conservatism will get you in political hot water in the new North Carolina.
Take a look at a Gallup study below and compare the liberal, moderate and conservative leanings of voters in the different states based on 350,000 responses to polling during 2010.
Gallup 2/25/2011: Mississippi Rates as the Most Conservative U.S. State
North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are the least conservative Southern states.
- In February, Gallup released a study of political ideology in the states showing that conservatives outnumber liberals in every U.S. state.
- Only the District of Columbia has more liberals than conservatives.
- The top 10 most conservative states are Mississippi, Idaho, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah, South Dakota, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Carolina and Arkansas.
- The top 10 most liberal states are District of Columbia, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, Colorado, Washington and New Jersey.
- North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are the least conservative Southern states and the only states in the South carried by President Barack Obama.
- As to rank, 21 states are more conservative than North Carolina.
NC statewide polls by Civitas Institute 5/10-11/2011 May Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey and by Public Policy Polling 6/8-11/2011 June Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey showed the same percentage of conservatives: PPP 44%; Civitas 43%.
Compassionate conservatism shows strength of character and is appreciated by most voters. Maybe the perceived lack of compassion for the unemployed is why the same PPP poll shows significantly greater unfavorable voter opinion of Republicans (46%) than favorable (33%). After all, voters supported extending unemployment benefits by 2-to-1 (60% support; 29% oppose).
So, how far right can North Carolina Republicans push their conservative legislative agenda without creating a political blowback? Not that far in North Carolina. It’s not a conservative Republican state.
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/JDPR-5-26-11-Legal-Mischief1.mp3|titles=JDPR 5 26 11 Legal Mischief] Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in
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Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in Myrtle Beach. If you are interested in a presentation on the political implications of redistricting for 2012 politics, click here.
Most Fun You Can Legally Have
Mercedes Benz has an ad on TV claiming that driving one of their “C Class” cars is the most fun you can legally have. Wrong. Drawing your political party an advantage over a $20 billion budget for the next 10 years while disrupting the opposition without getting indicted … now that’s the most fun you can legally have.
You can’t govern if you don’t win a majority of the legislative seats. One of the best ways to stack the deck in your favor is to draw a majority of seats predisposed to choosing your candidates. But only the party in the majority after each census can claim the drawing tools. In 2011, it’s the Republicans.
Miller’s Millstone: Rucho’s Right of Retributive Justice
US Congressman Brad Miller, D-Wake, is serving his last term whether he has accepted his fate or not. Why? He “double-bunked” the Chairman of the NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago.
No one understands the devastating political consequences of redistricting better than someone who got “double-bunked” by the majority party mapmakers. Double-bunking occurs when two incumbents from the same party are drawn into the same district. If you are double-bunked you have two choices: run against each other in a brutal and expensive primary, or someone has to agree to go home.
That’s what happened 10 years ago … to none other than Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, the current Chairman of the Senate Redistricting Committee. Who served as Chairman of NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago? None other than US Congressman Brad Miller.
Then-state Senator Brad Miller put GOP Senators Robert Pittenger and Bob Rucho, both from Mecklenburg County, in the same district. Rucho decided to bow out rather than risk a fortune trying to beat one of the wealthiest members of the state Senate in a primary race in an expensive media market.
Sen. Rucho went home and practiced dentistry for most of the decade. Then-Sen. Brad Miller drew himself a safe Democratic U.S. House seat (connects Raleigh and Greensboro by way of the Virginia border counties) and spent the remainder of the decade as a member of the United States Congress.
In 2008, Sen. Pittenger resigned. Bob Rucho was appointed to fill his unexpired term. In 2010, the GOP won a 31-19 majority in the NC Senate. Now, low and behold, look who is chairing the NC Senate Redistricting Committee!!! None other than Sen. Bob Rucho.
Miller is history.
A couple of other Democrats in the congressional delegation also need to be pricing moving companies for the big haul back to their respective hometowns. According to press accounts: Mike McIntire, D-Robeson and Larry Kissell, D-Montgomery are the #2 and #3 GOP targets after Miller, followed by Heath Shuler, D-Swain. We will find out who has a target on their backs in a couple of weeks.
Remedy for Overindulging at the Smorgasbord of Legal Mischief
The modern era of remapping congressional and legislative districts typically begins with the majority party overindulging at the smorgasbord of partisan mischief, only to have the minority party lawyers file suits against the maps … suits that receive an unfavorable ruling by majority party judges but are eventually reversed and remanded by the minority party appellate courts and ultimately appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which hands down a 5-4 decision going one way or the other depending on which party was in the White House at the time of the most recent retirement of a justice. Or, so it seems.
In June, the new Republican versions of congressional and state legislative maps will be unveiled. This much you can count on: Step 1: Republicans will draw themselves a political advantage. Step 2: the state or federal courts or the Obama Justice Department will take much of that advantage away.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were six swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Republicans sued. Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and a dozen rulings, the courts leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and four were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
Maps Give You a Head Start; Money Wins the Race
Democrats made up for their losses in the courts by parlaying their political power into a fundraising advantage, outspending Republicans 3-to-1 in legislative races for the remainder of the decade, thereby reestablishing their dominance. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Republicans were never able to build on the good success of their redistricting litigation, even in GOP-friendly years, because of their inability to raise a competitive war chest.
The financial disparity changed in 2010, primarily because the Democratic leadership imploded under the strain of the worst recession since the Great Depression, high legislative and party leadership turnover, political scandal, and a President who could no longer inspire turnout. While Democrats floundered, Republicans united behind a strong team of political leadership and attained unprecedented fundraising success … and unprecedented political success with the takeover of the General Assembly.
In 2008, NC Senate Democrats raised $9.7 million, doubling the $4.1 million raised by NC Senate Republicans. In 2010, NC Senate Democrats raised only $8.8 million, down 9.1%, while NC Senate Republicans achieved an unprecedented 93.1% increase over 2008 with $7.9 million.
In 2008, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million, tripling the $3.4 million raised by NC House Republicans. In 2010, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million again, while NC House Republicans doubled their 2008 total with $6.8 million, a 102% increase.
The odds of another election year during which everything goes wrong for the Democrats while the GOP is doing everything right are slim to none. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Past Legal Mischief Foretells the Legal Mischief Coming in June
Last Thursday, I served on a panel on redistricting sponsored by the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Department. Panelists included Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, Sen. Dan Blue, D-Wake, former Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, and Rep. Leo Daughtry, R-Johnston, a member of the NC House Redistricting Committee.
Rep. Daughtry reminded us that he was a state senator prior to the 1990 redistricting, when he was mapped out of his home territory and forced to run for the House. Daughtry also reminded us that in 2000 he and GOP House member Billy Creech were “double bunked” into the same district. Creech retired.
NC Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, R-Watauga was state Sen. Virginia Foxx 10 years ago when she was double-bunked with Sen. John Garwood, R-Wilkes. Foxx chose to run for US Congress instead. NC Congressman Patrick McHenry, R-Gaston was state Rep. Patrick McHenry 10 years ago when he was double-bunked with Rep. John Rayfield, R-Gaston. He chose to run for US Congress.
This is what you can expect in a couple of weeks, except that it will be the Democrats who will suffer at the hands of Republican map makers. And it will all be legal … legal mischief nonetheless, and the most fun you can legally have!
Remember, Democrats set the standard of fairness for redistricting congressional and legislative districts in North Carolina, and you can count on Republicans to lower themselves to that same standard.
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-March-3-Pop-Growth.mp3|titles=Audio March 3 Pop Growth] “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011 Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth
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“If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011
Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth Since 1990
Granted, yesterday’s big news that North Carolina’s population has grown 18.5% in one decade is something to write about. However, in order to see just how dramatically we have changed politically you should take a look at the 84% growth in registered voters since 1990.
The 84% growth in registered voters since 1990 has yielded confounding results: the political market share of Democrats has declined by 30%, yet we have twice as many liberals. There are a million more Republicans, yet the market share of conservatives has declined by 20%.
Caution: The greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” (17.6%) or “moderate” (37.3%) than “conservative” (41.4%).[i]
Voter population growth yields fewer Democrats: In 1990, there were 3.3 million voters in North Carolina. As of February 26, 2011, there are 6.1 million voters … an 84% increase.
- In 1990,[ii] 64% of NC registered voters were Democrats
- Today, only 45% of registered voters are Democrats (30% decline)
- In 1990, 31% of NC registered voters were Republicans
- Today, the Republican share 32% (no change)
- In 1990, 6% of NC registered voters were “Unaffiliated”
- Today, the “Unaffiliated” registration is 24% (a 400% increase)
Half of NC’s Voters are in 14 Urban Counties
The geography of North Carolina is unchanged. The mountains are still standing where they stood in 1587 when the “Lost Colony” of British immigrants first settled on Roanoke Island. The ocean waves still wash ashore along the coast just like they did in 1781 when North Carolina patriot militiamen defeated Cornwallis at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse during the Revolutionary War. It’s the profile of the people who make up modern day North Carolina that has undergone profound change … change driven by dramatic population growth in the last few decades.
Throughout most of our history, we were a Southern state … rural and conservative. Today, we are more diverse … more like the nation than the South; more urban and ideologically moderate.
Today, half of North Carolina’s 6.1 million voters reside in 14 counties; the other half reside in the other 86 counties. That means that once the new legislative maps are drawn, half of the state Senators and House members will be from 14 counties, the other half from the other 86 counties.
Non-Southern Newcomers Remix Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives
As to the ideological shift, according to polling and democratic research conducted throughout the past two decades, two-thirds of the newcomers to North Carolina are not from the South. The leading states sending new voters to North Carolina are Pennsylvania, California, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Ohio. Although these new voters have caused the 30% decline in the number of registered Democrats, their predominantly progressive political ideology has led to a doubling of self-described liberals.
Since the early 1990s, while serving as President of NCFREE, I asked the following question in all statewide polls: “For most government policies do you prefer the solutions offered by liberals, moderates, or conservatives?” (If Liberal, ask …) “Would that be very liberal or just liberal?” (If conservative, ask …) “Would that be very conservative or just conservative?”
Prior to 1995, the total “Liberal” was always a single digit number in statewide public opinion polls. In 1995, the total “Liberal” increased to 10.3% (“Liberal” 8.8%; “Very Liberal” 1.5%).[i]
Today, polls show the total self-described liberals in North Carolina consistently closer to 20%, with conservatives around 45% and moderates around 35%.
According to Tom Jensen with Public Policy Polling, their latest North Carolina poll shows 16% of our voters describing themselves as liberal, 40% moderate, and 44% conservative. (For emphasis: 56% NOT claiming to be conservative … in a Republican-friendly year!)
A new study released this week by Gallup shows that based on tracking polls throughout 2010 North Carolina is 41.4% conservative, 37.3% moderate and 17.6% liberal. Only two Southern states are more liberal and less conservative than North Carolina: Florida and Virginia. It’s no coincidence that those three states are the only Southern states carried by President Obama.
Although liberals and moderates combined are already well over half of all voters, their share of voters in urban areas increases considerably. Restated for emphasis: Half of all voters in North Carolina’s 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP McCain/Palin ticket.
Conservative Governance of a Moderate, Battleground State
As stated at the outset, the greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” or “moderate” than “conservative”.[i]
Karl Rove writes in today’s Wall Street Journal, “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Rove concludes, “Americans today want to know what steps Republicans will take to create more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”
There you have it. The way to meet the challenge of governing as a conservative in a moderate state is to stay keenly focused on what North Carolinians want … the same thing all Americans want, “more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”
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[i] NCFREE statewide survey of 800 registered voters in North Carolina conducted between the dates of February 27 – March 3, 1995. The survey is based upon actual telephone interviews with registered voters.
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
[iv] 1990 voter registration numbers are from the State Board of Elections. My sincere thanks to Jacque Blaeske who took the time to find them and send them to me.
– END –
Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
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Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/JDPR-2-22-2011-Charlotte-Host-DNC.mp3|titles=JDPR 2 22 2011 Charlotte Host DNC] “NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete
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“NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.” Associated Press, February 2, 2011
A Model of Innovation and Global Competitiveness … or Algorithmic Voodoo?
A headline in the Wall Street Journal, Feb. 2, 2011, read, “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue.” The story suggested that Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention in order to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking. The President’s campaign team wants to show that they are confident of repeat wins in historically red states like North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia.
That’s all well and good, but I believe that there is an even more important reason for choosing Charlotte: North 
Carolina. It’s not just Charlotte, it’s our state. Our state represents Obama’s vision of the new model when it comes to innovation and global competitiveness. North Carolina may have been “First in Flight” in the 20th Century, but our growing reputation in the 21st Century is “First in Innovation,” an outgrowth of being “First in Business.”
From Forbes to Site Selection magazine, North Carolina has been recognized as having the “Best Business Climate” year after year for a decade. Democrats beam with pride when they see those national awards of distinction handed to our state. However, Republicans act as if the criteria for identifying our exceptional competitive qualities are based on algorithmic voodoo.
What’s a Republican to Do?
What is a Republican to do? Last fall, North Carolina voters elected Republicans to shore up the long-term prospects of maintaining the state’s favorable business climate by restoring financial health and efficient delivery of governmental services. Those two qualities, financial health and efficient delivery of services, have fallen by the wayside due to unilateral state budget power over too long a period of time by those who put the Democratic Party ahead of the fiscal integrity of the state and the character of its leaders.
Voters are now counting on Republicans to take ownership of our state’s business climate, and to stake a claim for a fair share of all things positive in our state … including the positive qualities like our model business climate that led to the selection of our state as the host state for the Democratic National Convention.
Sharing the Credit for a Business Climate that is the Envy of the Nation
So, before you GOPers start grousing over the positive commentary on the selection of Charlotte for the DNC national confab in 2012, please remember that the mayor of Charlotte during most of the dynamic growth since 1995 was a Republican named Pat McCrory.
Over the past four decades, millions of Republican business leaders and Republican employees have helped build great companies and communities in North Carolina. They, right along with Democratic business leaders and Democratic employees … and Independent business leaders and Independent employees … helped make our state’s business climate the envy of the nation.
Take a look at the lists of high praise below and give some thought about whether these honors would have come to North Carolina without the hard work and good successes of all of us.
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2010
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 9 of the last 10 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 2 Best State for Business by CEO’s, Chief Executive magazine, May/June
- No. 3 Best State for Business, Forbes, October
- No. 3 State for In-migration, United Van Lines Migration Study
- No. 4 America’s Top States for Business survey, CNBC, July
- No. 5 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate
- No. 7 Best-Performing City: Raleigh-Cary area, Milken Institute, October
- Raleigh, Charlotte and Durham Forbes list of Best Places for Business and Careers
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2009
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 8 of the last 9 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 2 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
- No. 2 Best State for Business by CEOs, Chief Executive magazine, February
- No. 3 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, June
- No. 5, Forbes Best States for Business, September
- No. 8, Top States for Nanotechnology, August, 2009 (Raleigh No. 4 for Nano Metros)
- No. 9, America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July (No. 2 for Workforce)
- Next Cities list of 60 U.S. Hotspots for Young, Talented Workers : Charlotte under “Super Cities”; Durham under “Midsize Magnets”; Cary under “Mighty Micros.”
- 4 N.C. cities on CNNMoney.com best places for small business startups, Oct. 13
- Best Places for Business and Careers: No. 1 Raleigh, No. 3 Durham, No. 6 Asheville, No. 13 Wilmington, No. 18 Winston-Salem and No. 19 Charlotte (in the “Best Metros” category); and No. 2 Greenville (in the “Best Small Metros” category), Forbes, March
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2008
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 7 of last 8 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 1 State with Small Metropolitan Areas Having the Most New and Expanded Corporate Facilities, Site Selection magazine, March
- No. 1 Pro Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, Inc. study
- No. 2 Best Business Climate, Development Counselors International (DCI), July
- No. 3 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
- No. 3 Largest Biotech Industry of U.S. States, Beyond Borders, Ernst & Young
- No. 4 for Biotech Strength in Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, Business Facilities, July
- No. 4 Best State for Business, Forbes magazine, July
- No. 6 America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July
NC’s Industrial Transformation, the Centerpiece of the Democrats’ Re-election bid
Today, North Carolinians are younger, smarter, and more urban/suburban than they were 10 years ago according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Our 18.5% growth has also created greater diversity. North Carolinians are just as likely to be from somewhere else USA; our demographic profile is more like the nation than the South. As Ferrel Guillory, Director of The Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill, wrote in his essay North Carolina: she ain’t what she used to be, “The state has transformed from biracial to multi-cultural.” Why? Economic opportunity.
North Carolina is one of the emerging states that best exemplifies the message of change that Obama won on in 2008. That’s the thematic reason we were chosen to host the Democrats next September. Young, smart, diverse … first in innovation, leading the way in economic recovery and business investment.
Granted, the commitment by Duke Energy’s CEO Jim Rogers to raise the necessary $37 million to host the event was a critical factor; and, the fact that Charlotte’s new Democratic Mayor Anthony Foxx is tight with the President helped a bit. Ummmmm, and then there is the prospect of a late-night, one-on-one game with Michael Jordan. But none of that would have mattered if North Carolina had not developed into one of the most dynamic places in the world to live, learn, work, raise a family … and make money; one of a handful of states “leading the comeback from the worst recession since the 1930s,” according to an analysis by USA Today.
Associated Press writer Liz Sidoti said it best in her February 1, 2011 story titled, Dems choose Charlotte for 2012 convention. Sidoti wrote, “With the economy certain to dominate Obama’s re-election bid, North Carolina’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s re-election bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.”
Will Obama Win NC Again? Will the GOP Hold the Legislative Majority?
As the Wall Street Journal story “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue” suggested, Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking.
What are Obama’s prospects for winning North Carolina in 2012? Well, half of all voters in our 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP presidential ticket of McCain/Palin.
Those 1,027,114 voters who supported Obama/Biden in 2008 still live here, and they are still more likely to support Democrats. It’s an urban thing; same throughout the US.
However, in 2010, independent suburban voters, along with conservative Democrats and loyal Republicans, gave the North Carolina GOP a majority in the state Senate and state House of Representatives. Those voters still live here too.
Whether North Carolinians will give Obama another win in 2012 is uncertain. The more important question is will North Carolinians give Republicans another opportunity to lead the state following the 2012 elections. That is equally uncertain.
What is certain is that Republican odds will improve if they begin to see the state the way everyone else in the country sees North Carolina: youthful and innovative, diverse, leading the way to a globally competitive citizenry … an exemplary state with a business climate that is the envy of the nation … a state fitting for a national political convention.
– END –
Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.
The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else. More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.
Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention Key Dates in 2012 Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!) Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa
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“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention
Key Dates in 2012
- Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!)
- Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012
- Republican National Convention in Tampa August 27, 2012
- Democratic National Convention in Charlotte September 3, 2012
- General Election Day is November 6, 2012
No political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina … period.
North Carolina became a presidential battleground state in 2008 with President Obama’s historic win. It continues as a battleground state, despite the GOP takeover of the General Assembly.
Any hope among Republicans that they could gain an early advantage in the 2012 elections by parlaying their exclusive legislative power into unilateral political power has been dashed by the selection of Charlotte as the geographical center of President Obama’s campaign for reelection.
President Obama likes North Carolina. He came here 8 times in 2008 after his nomination in Denver. He vacationed here with his family in 2010. Last month he made a major policy speech at Forsyth Tech. And now, Charlotte has been selected as the host city for the Democratic National Convention.
“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink,” a senior Democratic official told ABC News. “President Obama will be very active in North Carolina and … despite what some have speculated, we are going to go as big in 2012 as we did in 2008 — and that means fighting hard for North Carolina, Virginia and all the states and more that helped elect President Obama in the first place.”
It is precisely because no political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina that you need to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report.
No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately last year. I projected the winner in 47 of 47 NC Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 NC House races (five races were toss ups). Since the last census, I have correctly projected 1100 of 1144 races in North Carolina … thanks in great part to my analysis of the districts.
I do not lobby, so I have no hesitation with writing objectively and boldly about the political mistakes of legislative leaders and the other factors that drive elections.
I do not have a partisan bias. My value as a political analyst and commentator is in having someone other than a party loyalist keeping you informed about the job party leaders are doing and the implications of their actions, good and bad, for election results in 2012.
I am not a political campaign consultant, so I have no conflict of interest in assessing the strengths of candidates and the status of political races.
Maps do not a majority make
New legislative and congressional districts will be mapped this year, with Republicans in charge for the first time since the 19th Century. Although you can count on Republicans to draw lines that favor their interests, there are many political forces far more important than the maps that I will be investigating on your behalf … like the 2012 battlefield leadership teams, the money, the strengths/weaknesses of the candidates and their consultants, President Obama’s decisions, the economy, unity/disunity among party leaders in North Carolina, political blunders, renegade uprisings, third-party organizations, the presidential and gubernatorial races, and the unforeseen local, state, national and international events of the day that always come along and shift the probability of success to one group of candidates over the other.
Democrats have been winning in Republican districts for decades because of the strengths and commitment of their leaders; because they recruited better candidates, raised more money and hired the best political professionals in the nation … and they worked harder, at least up until 2010 when all of those traditional Democratic strengths, including leaders, money, candidates and professionals, were seized by Republicans.
Who will seize the advantages of leadership, money, candidates and professional talent?
In 2010, I made the case that Democrats were less competitive due to events that had nothing to do with Republicans: like a shakeup of key legislative leaders due to retirements; a failed recruitment effort that left 11 Senate Republicans unchallenged and 29 House Republicans unchallenged; the disruption of corruption scandals; the overall dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation at a time when Democrats had all of the power; a disillusioned and unenthusiastic base; the loss of independent voters; a loss of confidence in President Obama, and the absence of a major investment in voter registration, turnout and straight-party voting as seen in 2008 when the Obama camp spent $ millions in NC.
Democratic loyalists would not have given you an accurate assessment of their political liabilities in 2010, and Republican loyalists are not going to give you an accurate assessment of their liabilities during the 2011-2012 election cycle.
This is where I come in. The weekly John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle, as well as the partisan momentum tracking in the Late Breaking Trends report, is available to you with the Premium subscription for $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.
The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else. More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.
Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
– END –
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