If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
“It turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
NY Times, 3/26/2013, regarding Pres. Obama’s new Organizing for Action “Social Welfare” organization
March 27, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 8 11:13 pm
It’s time we put principle aside and do what’s right!
On June 19, 2008, Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama created a firestorm among liberal campaign finance reformers by breaking his pledge to limit his campaign spending to public funds. Obama chose to put the practical value of a campaign spending advantage over personal principle. He knew that in order to win, he had to Obey the Golden Rule of Politics: Those with the most gold rule.
Obama’s decision to put principal aside freed him to raise an unlimited amount of money. Republican nominee John McCain opted to shackle himself to public financing. When the final campaign spending totals were tallied, the FEC reported that Obama had raised $745 million to McCain’s $368 million.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans.
David Plouffe, campaign manager for President Obama’s 2008 victory, in writing about the decision to opt out of public financing in his book The Audacity to Win, said, “Sacrificing this added cash would mean we either had to pare our list of target battlegrounds or run less rigorous campaigns in each.”
One of those target battlegrounds was North Carolina. If Obama had put principle over money and opted out of public financing in 2008, he would not have carried North Carolina and Beverly Purdue would not have been governor.
North Carolina was Obama’s closest win (14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast). Perdue’s win was the closest governors race in the U.S., despite her 2-to-1 spending advantage over McCrory ($14.9 million to his $6.7 million) and despite a historic Democratic turnout thanks to Obama’s state organization.
“Staying in the federal system would seriously impede our ability to mount that kind of campaign that left no stone unturned,” wrote Plouffe, “I thought if we opted out of the system, we would also enjoy a significant financial advantage over McCain.” He was right.
In 2008, the Obama campaign raised $782 million (McCain $368 million), employed 6,000 staffers who managed 13 million volunteers. In September alone, Obama raised $100 million online. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,” said Plouffe.
When it comes to principle versus money in politics, ignore the protests of the press and the outrage of the campaign finance reformers; put principle aside and do what’s right: raise money.
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Today, I am adding Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule.”
NC Republicans are only half-way to financial dominance; President Obama points the way to the other half
Thanks to excellent research and analysis of 2012 campaign finances by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, we can now say for certain that North Carolina Republicans have learned well from Democrats and are following their precedent in valuing political financial dominance.
- Republican Senate candidates raised about $11.3 million to only $3.7 million for Democratic Senate candidates, a 3-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 33 to 17 Senate majority.
- Republican House candidates raised $12.9 million to $5.3 million for the Democrats, a 2-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 77 to 43 House majority.
- Republican Gov. Pat McCrory raised $11.2 million to $4.3 million for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton, a 2012 advantage that led to a 55% to 43% victory.
Granted, reports like these make it clear that North Carolina Republicans are well on their way to establishing political financial dominance. However, they are only halfway there. The other half of political financial dominance is the establishment of 501 (c) (4) “social welfare” nonprofit groups that may raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to advance their legislative agenda.
Once again, Republicans have an excellent model thanks to President Obama.
Obama’s campaign organization, Organizing for America, has morphed into a new advocacy machine called Organizing for Action. OFA is run by former campaign operatives, like Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, and pledges to “support the legislative agenda we voted on, train the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders, and organize around local issues in our communities.”
Sound like something of political value to North Carolina Republicans? Keeping your political organization fine-tuned as an IRS approved “social welfare” organization? Training the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders? Unlimited shadow funding?
Raise $2 million and you can be on Obama’s board
On Tuesday, March 26, 2013, The New York Times carried a story about Organizing for Action stating, “In addition to the previously reported “board of trustees” whose members are expected to raise at least $500,000, it turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
What are they going to do with all of that money?
According to Organizing for Action’s statement of purpose, they are established to:
- “Support President Obama in achieving enactment of his national agenda.”
- Form grassroots level chapters that will also work for “progressive change on a range of issues at the state and local level.”
- All while operating as a “social welfare” organization” under IRS Code 501(c)(4).
Fred Wertheimer, head of Democracy 21 and a leading national voice for campaign finance reform, described the OFA as “an unprecedented entity that allows individual donors and bundlers to provide unlimited amounts of money to an organization functioning as an arm of the Obama presidency.”
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
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Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles. Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm First Generation of Leaders
[More…]
Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm
First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898
The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.
Collapsed. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010. Lost the state Senate. Lost the state House of Representatives. First time since 1898.
No political warfare generals. The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012. Including President Obama.
Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term. Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008. Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898. A lame duck.
In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.
And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats. McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.
In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand. Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand. McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall. Dalton: $2.6 million.
The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.
The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:
NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand. This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party. Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.
North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Fact: Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.
Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift
According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans. That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans. There’s more.
At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans. That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.
For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.
Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters. Obama volunteers.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13
[More…]
UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem
Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13 pm
Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Last Monday, May 14, 2012, I wrote that after decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles; that Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; and she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s.
On May 17, Public Policy Polling released the results of a new North Carolina survey showing Perdue’s disapproval rating the highest ever, with 57% of voters disapproving of the job she is doing to only 31% who approve.
Quoting PPP, a Democratic polling firm, “… that 57% disapproval is the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling.”
- Among Democrats, Perdue has 50% approval; 34% disapproval.
- Among Republicans, Perdue has a 7% approval; 87% disapproval.
- Among Independents, Perdue has a 27% approval; 64% disapproval.
It’s no wonder that many writers are beginning to report that national Democrats are having buyers’ remorse over the selection of North Carolina for their convention. A bit more vetting by the DNC and they would have seen that under Perdue’s leadership the state party has collapsed.
National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
On Friday, May 18, 2012, National Journal, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected non-partisan political research organizations, unveiled the first installment of their Hotline’s monthly gubernatorial rankings, listing the governorships most likely to flip partisan control this fall. North Carolina is #1 on the list of the top ten states likely to see a partisan change in the governor’s mansion. “We see North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s seat as more likely to wind up in Republican hands,” writes National Journal.
National Journal Forecasts McCrory Win: “It has been more than 20 years since a Republican won the governorship, but former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is looking like a heavy favorite against Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton,” concludes National Journal.
CNN: Obama’s North Carolina math problem
CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby wrote a story on Friday, May 18, 2012, titled Obama’s North Carolina math problem, in which he concluded that the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to math.
Hamby points out what I have concluded for years: “Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.”
Hamby quoted a “senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity” as saying that “white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.”
“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”
CNN news anchor Wolf Blitzer interviewed James Carville, President Clinton’s campaign manager, about the story, Obama’s North Carolina math problem. Carville agreed with Blitzer’s statement that the numbers do not look good.
With PPP stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
Take advantage of the July 4 Sale! A 20% discount on the Premium Annual Subscription … now only $196. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures. Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican
[More…]
NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm
Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican Leadership Emergence
Forecast: A historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives.
The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party during the past 10 years and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party argue for a new era of GOP dominance in the Old North State.
Strong leadership is essential for a winning political organization. Without strong leaders, party factions will turn on each other rather than stand united against the opposition.
After decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles:
- Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s; and she can’t stop the party Executive Committee from keeping the embattled state party chairman after she called for his resignation.
- Perdue’s predecessor, Gov. Easley, was so indifferent to the Democratic Party that he didn’t go to the state or national conventions … or speak to the NAACP state convention.
- Democrats have lost the decisive influence of Eastern NC because they do not have an Eastern NC candidate in the governor’s race like they’ve had for decades: Jim Hunt, D-Wilson; Mike Easley, D-Brunswick; Beverly Perdue, D-Craven.
- Eastern NC Christian social conservative Democrats, black and white, are disappointed with the party leadership’s stand against Amendment One (Obama, Perdue, Dalton).
- Eastern NC Democratic influence in the General Assembly collapsed with the end of the era of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, and with the resignation of Majority Leader Sen. Tony Rand, D-Cumberland. Contributing to the decline was the retirement of powerful insiders like Sen. R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, President of the Senate Caucus; Charlie Albertson, D-Duplin, Agriculture Committee Chairman; and with the loss of Appropriations Committee Co-Chair A.B. Swindell (D-Nash).
Furthermore, Democrats have been rocked by an era of scandal including former party leaders like Gov. Easley, Speaker Black, Agriculture Commissioner Phipps, U.S. Rep. Frank Balance, Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards, Sen. R.C. Soles, Rep. Thomas Wright, and numerous members of the staffs and campaign teams of governor’s Easley and Perdue.
North Carolina No Longer a Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
How could the Obama political organization misread North Carolina so badly?
- Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
The big mistake the Obama camp made was in thinking that Obama carried North Carolina because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Wrong. He was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
- Since 2010, Democrats have lost the majority party/majority district status in NC. And, they no longer have the leverage of political power to gain a fundraising advantage.
- Since 2010, Republicans have gained the leverage of power for a fundraising edge AND 30 Senate districts likely to elect a Republican to only 18 for the Democrats. Republicans only need 26 to keep their majority in the Senate. There are 70 GOP-friendly House districts to only 42 for the Democrats. Republicans need 61 to keep their majority.
- The Republican advantage in the 13 congressional districts has grown from 7 to 10.
The lack of strong Democratic leaders in North Carolina gives the Obama camp no other choice but to begin to discretely redirect the campaign’s North Carolina resources to greener pastures.
Republican Leaders Strengthen; GOP Base Solidifies Over Amendment One
Concurrent with the collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party has been the rise a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party. Those who led the successful battle in 2010, like Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger from Eden and Majority Leader Harry Brown from Jacksonville, along with Speaker Thom Tillis from Huntersville and Majority Leader Skip Stam from Apex on the House side, now wield the political power over the state budget.
Legislative leaders, along with party chairman Robin Hayes and an exceptionally talented team of political professionals, are the new best and brightest in North Carolina political circles.
In the past, disunity has kept Republicans in North Carolina from taking advantage of opportunities. The 61% to 39% rout on the Amendment One campaign was a galvanizing experience for state Republicans, leading to my analysis in The News & Observer May 9:
At a time of economic crisis it was politically risky for Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly to initiate a statewide constitutional vote on a social issue like the Marriage Amendment. However, thanks to their landslide victory on May 8, the state GOP will now enjoy a win-win of the highest order. They win the loyalty and enthusiastic support of their elated social and religious conservatives, and they neutralized the issue as fodder for Democrats in the General Election. By this fall, the Marriage Amendment controversy will be old news to just about everyone except those elated social and religions conservatives. Their victory will continue to motivate them all year to do the hard work of winning campaigns for conservatives.
Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity is what leads me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
When Trustworthiness is an Unreasonable Expectation for Leaders, the Skill Set for the Most Important Problems becomes the Standard “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.” Allegedly by Mitt Romney, Presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee Post: Tuesday, May 1, 2012 Vol. V, No. 15 3:13 pm I
[More…]
When Trustworthiness is an Unreasonable Expectation for Leaders, the Skill Set for the Most Important Problems becomes the Standard
“Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”
Allegedly by Mitt Romney, Presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee
Post: Tuesday, May 1, 2012 Vol. V, No. 15 3:13 pm
I heard that Mitt Romney ended his speech last weekend to a group of the GOP faithful by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.” That bit of humor reveals Romney’s biggest problem among fiscal conservatives: you can’t trust him to be the conservative he now claims to be; too much history of flip-flopping to the contrary.
During the last decade, the nation trusted Republicans with all of the power and they let us down. Under Republican President George W. Bush, and a Republican congress led by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) and U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Republicans spent money like crazed liberal Democrats and started The Great Recession that cost us 8.5 million jobs and brought our country to the brink of bankruptcy.
Who can be trusted? Is trustworthiness too much to expect in our political leaders?
In the fall of 2008, there was only one other option on the ballot: the Democrats. So, we put them in charge with great hope for change in Washington and a restoration of our country’s financial integrity. Well, that turned out to be the proverbial fox guarding the henhouse.
Now we are stuck: do we keep the big spending liberals in power who have not figured out how to get us back on our own two feet or do we put the big spending conservatives in power who knocked us off our feet in the first place?
Have we forgotten that during the administration of Republican President George W. Bush we went from a budget surplus to a national debt of $4.9 trillion? Have we forgotten that the banking crisis, subprime mortgages crisis, real estate crisis, Wall Street meltdown, bank bailouts, auto manufacturing crisis, and The Great Recession happened on the Republican watch?
So, how about trustworthiness? Who can I trust to do the right thing by the country?
Unfortunately, that’s like asking, who is more trustworthy to do the right thing: the Republicans in the U.S. House or the Democrats in the U.S. Senate? Got the picture? Trustworthiness is an unreasonable expectation for elected officials. Both have proven themselves untrustworthy.
Political Math: Obama’s Job Approval is High because Bush’s was so Low
Last week, Gallup’s job approval number for Barack Obama’s was 50%. Per Gallup, his average for April was 47%. President Bush had a job approval of 25% in the fall of 2008.
I am persuaded that the ONLY reason President Obama has sustained a near-50% job approval in the midst of high unemployment and a debilitating sovereign debt crisis is a fear of giving the country back to the Bush team.
The Bush team is the Albatross around Romney’s neck. That’s why Jeb Bush, arguably the most competent and level-headed Republican on the American political stage today, cannot be seriously considered as Vice President. Wrong last name. Who would want a third Bush term?
The only way that President George W. Bush had such a historic low 25% job approval is that Republican voters in 2008 agreed with Democrats and Independents that Bush and his team were responsible for the economic crisis and could no longer be trusted to manage the country.
Why would we put that group back in charge? When President Bush was sworn in on January 21, 2001, Gallup polling showed that only 22% of Americans thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic. When President Obama was sworn in on January 20, 2009, Gallup polling showed that the number of Americans who thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic and grown to 86%.
That’s why Romney must distance himself from all things Bush.
Republicans and Democrats have Different Priorities/Worries
So, what are the most important problems of the day? According to Gallup, the only replies with a 10%-or-greater group of voters to the question, “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? are:
- Economy in general 32%
- Unemployment/Jobs 25%
- Dissatisfaction with Government 12%
- Federal budget deficit/debt 11%
All other problems are single-digit numbers. Only 9% said health care was the most important problem; only 8% named Fuel/Oil Prices as the most important problem; 5% said Education; 2% said Taxes; 2% said Immigration/Illegal Aliens; 2% said War; 1% said National Security; 1% said Crime/Violence; 1% said Abortion.
So, which one of the two candidates likely to face off in this fall’s presidential contest has the skill set to take on the most important problems of the day?
It all comes down to the skills to deal with the most important problems of the day, and, with few exceptions, that comes down to your party affiliation. A March 28, 2012 study by Gallup shows a distinct difference in how Democrats and Republicans answered the “most important problem” question.
- 84% of Republicans said Federal Spending/Budget Deficit was an issue that worried them “a great deal.” Only 42% of Democrats agreed.
- 71% of Republicans said Size and Power of the Federal Government worried them “a great deal.” Only 31% of Democrats agreed.
- 46% of Republicans said Availability/Affordability of Health Care worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 69% of Democrats were worried about health care.
- 34% of Republicans said Hunger and homelessness worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 53% of Democrats were worried about the poor.
Look at where Democrats, Republicans … and Independents Agree
The political value of the Gallup study is not just in seeing where the parties disagree, it’s in seeing where they agree:
- Both parties are highly worried about the Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment
- Neither party is highly worried about Crime, Drugs, Environment, Terrorism, Race Issues
But perhaps the greatest political value of the Gallup study is in seeing where Independent voters come down on the issues that both parties see as important.
- Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Federal Spending/Budget Deficit issue (56%) as Republicans (84%), although more concerned than Democrats (42%).
- Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Size and Power of the Federal Government issue (40%) as Republicans (71%), although more concerned than Democrats (31%).
- Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment are important to all three groups.
- Independent voters are more worried about the Availability/Affordability of Health Care issue (61%) than Republicans (46 %), much closer to the Democrats (69%).
Bottom line, since voters do not trust either party anymore, the 2012 winners will be those who make the best case that they have the skill set to deal with the issues relating to the Economy, Unemployment and Gas Prices. And, the winners of the all-important Independent vote will be those who can add Availability/Affordability of Healthcare to their list of core competencies.
It strikes me that as of today, May 1, 2012, presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney has the perfect skill set for the problems of the day provided he’s willing to flip-flop one more time and take credit for being the architect of Obamacare, to lock in the Independent vote, and provided he joins the American majority in its fear and loathing of a third Bush term by distancing himself from anyone associated with the Bush administration.
That should not be a stretch for a pathological flip-flopper who allegedly ended his speech last weekend by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%; Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%. New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762) “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the
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New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%;
Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%.
New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762)
“That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
Ron Paul, Tuesday, January 10, New Hampshire “Victory Speech”
Romney: Viewed as Most Likely to Beat Obama; Least Likely to Satisfy Conservatives on Managing Federal Budget … but Most Acceptable. Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in NC?
Post: Friday, January 13, 2012 Vol. V, No. 2
Romney’s NH GOP Primary Win Not as Big as “Acceptable” Win this Week
The most significant presidential campaign development this week was not Mitt Romney’s decisive win in New Hampshire. After all, he is New Hampshire’s “homeboy” as described by fellow GOP presidential contender Jon Huntsman. And, only about half of New Hampshire’s GOP Primary voters were either Republicans or self-described conservatives.
Tuesday’s NBC Exit Poll shows that only 49% of the New Hampshire Republican Primary voters think of themselves as Republican. Those who think of themselves as Independent made up 47% of the GOP primary voters; 4% think of themselves as Democrats!
The same exit poll shows that 48% of the New Hampshire GOP Primary voters think of themselves as either Moderate (35%) or Liberal (13%). Only 52% of New Hampshire Primary voters consider themselves Conservative! Only 22% say they are evangelical Christians.
So, what motivated New Hampshire GOP Primary voters to give Mitt Romney a big win? Answer: He is viewed as the most likely to defeat President Obama in November. Note: His conservative bona fides were considered the least important in New Hampshire.
- Can defeat Barack Obama 35%
- Has the right experience 26%
- Has strong moral character 22%
- Is a true conservative 13%
A combined 82% of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters polled said that they are either “Dissatisfied, but not angry” with the Obama administration (42%), or “Angry” with the Obama administration (40%). Why? It’s because a combined 95% are “Very worried” about the direction of the nation’s economy (69%), or are “Somewhat worried” (26%).
Bottom line: New Hampshire GOP Primary voters had two things on their mind when they gave Romney the big win Tuesday, other than being their “homeboy,” he has the best skill set to deal with their #1 issue, the economy (62%), and he is the most likely to defeat Obama (61%).
Big win for Romney Tuesday, but not as significant as Tuesday’s Gallup poll.
Gallup: 59% of Republicans See Romney as “Acceptable” Nominee
Far more significant than the New Hampshire GOP Primary win for Romney is a new Gallup survey released Tuesday showing that 59% of all Republicans around the country see Romney as an “acceptable GOP nominee for president.” According to Gallup, Romney is “the only candidate with majority support on this measure.”
The same survey shows only 46% of the nation’s Republicans see Gingrich as an acceptable nominee, and only 45% see Santorum would be acceptable. A majority of Republicans around the country say that Perry, Paul, and Huntsman are unacceptable as the GOP nominee.
The most positive result of the Gallup survey for Romney fans is that the same number of conservative Republicans found Romney an acceptable GOP nominee (59%) as Moderate/Liberal Republicans. That is a major breakthrough for Romney.
Bottom Line: Mitt Romney is the only GOP contender with broad acceptability across ideological lines among the nation’s Republicans. That decisive support can be seen in Gallup tracking polls that show Romney leading all other GOP contenders by better than 2-to-1 (Romney 34%; Santorum 15%; Gingrich 14%; Paul 13%; Perry 5%; Huntsman 2%).
Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in North Carolina?
According to Gallup’s tracking on the question, “If the election were held today …,” President Obama would defeat Romney by 50% to 48%. Same result if Gingrich were the nominee.
Here in North Carolina, if the election were held today, Obama would defeat Romney by one point, 46%/45%, would tie Santorum 46%/46%, and would defeat all other GOP contenders by 5 points or more, according to polling by Public Policy Polling from January 5 – 8, 2012.
The biggest threat to the Republican presidential game plan in North Carolina is a Libertarian uprising. You can see that threat clearly in the Public Policy Poll, showing that Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, former two-term Governor of New Mexico, would get 8% of the vote in North Carolina, most of which would hurt Romney if he is the GOP nominee.
Johnson announced his switch to the Libertarian Party in late December at a news conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “I have been a Republican my entire life,” he said. “I don’t view this as leaving the Republican Party as much as the Republican Party has left me.”
The least likely voters to concede the GOP nomination this year are the Ron Paul self-described “dangerous” supporters. “I sort of have to chuckle when they describe you and me as being dangerous,” Paul said with a big grin during his “victory speech” Tuesday night, “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
That “status quo” clearly includes the Republican status quo.
Obama’s Best Hope for a Second Term
My view is that Obama will not do nearly as well in North Carolina as he did in 2008, when he won by only 14,171 votes out of 4,310,789 cast.
He has lost the surprise factor, lost the enthusiastic support of his base (African American voters excepted), and has raised serious doubts about whether he has the credentials for dealing with the most important issues facing the next president: managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis. Even if he wins a second term he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
Obama’s best hope for a second term is a GOP divided by the Ron Paul Libertarians, the Rick Santorum social conservatives and the Tea Party congressional Republicans who have helped drive the job approval of the U.S. Congress to historic lows.
Our nation’s problems are bigger than party or ideology. Irresponsible members of both parties got us into the mess were are in, and irresponsible members of both parties are keeping us in it.
What is the definition of irresponsible members? It is: Those members who think their party or their ideology is more important than bipartisan collaboration on managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis.
President Obama’s best hope for a second term is a dysfunctional Congress and a divided GOP.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.” John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011 Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40%
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.”
John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011
Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40% GOP Nation
Post: December 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 34
And the Wall Street Journal Agrees!
If you go back and read all 2011 John Davis Political Reports, you will find this consistent drumbeat: the best hope for President Obama’s re-election success is the Tea Party faction of the U.S. House Republican Caucus.
Yesterday’s rejection of a bipartisan Senate bill to extend the payroll-tax cut is another example of how House Republicans are making the same mistake Obama made: thinking the election results were a mandate for partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives. Wrong.
According to Gallup’s three year average, only 40.4% of Americans are Republican or Lean Republican. The same study shows only 39.8% of Americans are conservative. Where does the House GOP Caucus get the notion that those who are struggling financially care which party is responsible for putting them back to work; responsible for getting the country out of debt? Does it matter to most if it’s conservatives or moderates or liberals who come to the rescue?
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
House Republicans are driving independent voters away, thereby jeopardizing all Republicans.
Today’s Wall Street Journal agrees. In an editorial titled, The GOP’s Payroll Tax Fiasco, WSJ concludes, “We wonder if they [U.S. House Republicans] might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.”
The nation is only 40.4% Republican; 39.8% conservative.
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
What Part of a 4-to-1 Obama Approval vs Congress Approval is Confusing?
I have shown time and again throughout 2011 that it’s the President not the Congress who Americans trust more to solve the country’s biggest problems of the day: sovereign debt and jobs. All year, the congressional job approval numbers have hovered in the low teens, near 10%, while the President’s job approval has hovered in the low 40s.
Today, Real Clear Politics shows Congressional Job Approval at 12.5%; President Obama’s Job Approval at 46.5%. What part of a 4-to-1 Presidential Job Approval over Congressional Job Approval do Republican members of the U.S. House not get?
A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows Congressional Democrats getting a 27% job approval rating, with only 20% approving of the job Congressional Republicans are doing. On the other hand, President Obama gets a 49% approval rating.
Ummmmmmm, let’s see. Congressional Republicans get a 20% approval rating and President Obama gets a 49% approval rating. How is that likely to play out in 2012?
The most ominous poll number I have read all year for uncompromising fiscal conservatives like the U.S. House Republican Caucus is a Gallup survey that shows that Independents, by almost 2-to-1, believe that it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs,” even if little gets done (27%).
In 2012, look for the Tea Party conservatives to continue to be a disruptive force in the Republican Party. If they continue to insist on their own priorities, as Obama and his fellow Democrats did when they put health care over jobs and the national budget crisis, they will suffer the same fate in November of 2012 as Democrats did in 2010.
- The Tea Party is on track to help re-elect President Obama
- The Tea Party is on track to limit the likely GOP U.S. Senate majority to 1 or 2 seats
- The Tea Party is on track to help Democrats pull off an upset U.S. House turnover
- The Tea Party is on track to cut the GOP potential for statewide pickups in NC in half (Council of State, 1 Supreme Court and 3 Court of Appeals races).
- The Tea Party is on track to keep the NC Senate and House from winning veto-proof super majorities (they will still win the majority in both chambers if districts stand)
Fortunately for likely GOP Gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory, Perdue is still on track to lose in a rematch because she is so weak that even the Tea Party can’t screw that race up! According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey, Perdue’s approval rating stands at 37% (about where its been since she took office) and she lags McCrory in the governor’s race by 10 points (50-40), about where its been since she took office.
All in all, Republicans are in for a big year in 2012 at the federal and state levels provided they can convince the Tea Party that giving up half of what they want to get half of what they want is the way progress is made in a Democracy.
– END –
Merry Christmas! Happy Hanukkah! Happy New Year!
I can’t thank you enough for reading the John Davis Political Report this year. I am all too aware that you expect me to get it right … every time. That’s what I strive to do each week.
May God Bless You and Your Family!!!
John N. Davis, Editor
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“The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.” Jim Clifton, Chairman & CEO, Gallup; The Coming Jobs War Like WWII, the U.S. Must
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“The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.”
Jim Clifton, Chairman & CEO, Gallup; The Coming Jobs War
Like WWII, the U.S. Must Fight and Win Two Wars: The U.S./European Sovereign Debt War and the U.S./Asian Global Competitiveness War. How to Win the Jobs War with 1,700 Rupees
Post: December 7, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 33
Underdog to Superpower: WWII Model for Winning Today’s Economic Wars
Today, we honor those who lost their lives in the Japanese bombing raid on our ships and airfields at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941, and those who died in the ensuing battles in the two great theaters of World War II, the European and the Asian-Pacific.
Up until today, 70 years ago, most Americans were isolationists. Despite daily news of the devastation in Britain and other European nations during two years of attacks by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, we didn’t want to get involved; didn’t want to make the sacrifices.
Frankly, we were ill-equipped to get involved after a decade of 25% unemployment, low personal income and tax revenues during The Great Depression. Foreign trade was down to half of what it was before the nation’s worst economic crisis; crop prices were cut in half as well.
Until I read a review of the book Pacific Crucible: War at Sea in the Pacific, 1941-1942 by Ian W. Toli, in The Wall Street Journal on November 26, I did not realize how unprepared we were to engage in global conflict. According to Toli, the United States was an underdog during the first year of the war with Japan in terms of inferior numbers of men, inferior equipment, warships, planes and technology.
However, immediately after Pearl Harbor the United States became a nation united in purpose and willingness to sacrifice. We were united by the threat to our country and our freedoms; united by the realization that if we did not win both wars our right of self-determination would be in the hands of an occupying power.
Within two years, the United States was transformed from underdog to a military superpower because of unity, sacrifice, ingenuity and productivity … and many war heroes. Consider these facts from Pacific Crucible: War at Sea in the Pacific, 1941-1942:
- Two years after Pearl Harbor, the United States was producing 89,000 aircraft a year
- The U.S. built 40% more aircraft annually than the British and Germans combined
- The U.S. built 29,000 tanks in 1943, twice as many as the Germans
- In 1943, the U.S. built 369 major warships, five times the combined totals built by the British, Germans and the Soviet Union
- Two years after Pearl Harbor, the U.S. built 2,000 cargo ships, 13 times the number lost to German U-boats that same year
Two Must-Win Economic Wars: Sovereign Debt and Global Jobs Competitiveness
Today, our nation is fighting two economic world wars on two fronts just like in WWII.
The Sovereign Debt Front is being fought by financially irresponsible countries like the United States and the “European Theatre” countries like Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal. Those countries can’t pay their sovereign debts; they fund their budgets with borrowed money thereby raising concerns worldwide about fiscal competence and trustworthiness.
The second front is the Global Jobs Competitiveness Front being fought by the United States and the “Asian-Pacific Theatre,” in countries like China and India.
The consequences of losing either war are as potentially devastating as they were during WWII.
A bankrupt country is a defenseless country that cannot well maintain the health, education and general welfare of its citizens. Businesses and industries in a bankrupt country bear the disruptive and costly burden of public sector instability, limiting their ability to compete with their peers in financially stable nations.
So, how do we win both wars?
Solutions: Unity, Sacrifice, Innovation, Productivity … and Medal of Honor Winners
The greatest problems limiting the ability of the United States to win both economic wars are:
- No unity of Purpose (partisan/ideological estrangement)
- No willingness to Sacrifice (you go first)
- No interest in Innovation (not in my job description)
- Manufacturing Productivity (that’s an offshore thing)
- No Medal of Honor Winners (am I my brother’s keeper?)
On November 22, in my report titled, Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee, I stated that the U.S. Congress has confirm what 90% of Americans already know: our nation’s greatest obstacle to winning the debt and jobs economic wars is political gridlock. I concluded that the only solution is to throw out all Senators and Representatives who are not willing to compromise … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
For clarification: The intent is not to get rid of the ideological extremists in both camps, the most liberal and most conservative, the intent is to get rid of all who refuse to collaborate and compromise. We cannot win these two wars without leaders willing to sacrifice for the common good.
Any Republican who says “No” to $10 in cuts to $1 in taxes needs to be replaced. Here’s why: You may be able to win the sovereign debt war with cuts in programs and services, but you cannot win the global jobs competitiveness war without investment paid for with new revenue … governmental investment in infrastructure, especially educational infrastructure.
Any Democrat who says “No” to putting every program on the table for cost cutting reform, especially all entitlement programs, needs to be replaced. Here’s why: You may be able to win the global jobs competitiveness war with investment in infrastructure paid for with new revenue, but you can’t win the sovereign debt war without cuts in programs and services … especially entitlements.
How to Win the Global Jobs Competitiveness War with 1,700 Rupees
India’s Department of Human Resources sponsored a competition worldwide for a $10 smart tablet computer. The goal was to get 220 million children online in India, a very poor county where few could afford a $500 Apple iPad or even a $199 Kindle Fire.
After five years, no one had come up with a $10 smart tablet. However, a London-based company Datawind did develop one for 2433 Indian Rupees (INR), about $47. With a $15 subsidy from the government, the tablet, named Askash, is available to teachers and students for 1,700 Rupees, about $32.
Datawind is making 100,000 units a month, giving Indian children word processing, web browsing and video conferencing capabilities … for 1,700 Rupees. Production capability will increase over time with the goal still being to get all 220 million of India’s children online.
As far as the $10 goal, it’s still on the table. “The intent is to start a price war,” said Datawind’s chief executive, Suneet Singh Tuli.
I have always wondered what would happen if everybody in the world had immediate access to all of the information in the world. Well, we are about to find out … India is about to find out.
War for Global Jobs is America’s next War for Everything
Jim Clifton, Chairman and CEO of Gallup, in his new book, The Coming Jobs War, writes, “Losing World War II would have ended America as the world knew it, not to mention much of the democratic Western world.” He writes, “It was a war for America’s very freedom, for the West’s freedom, for leadership of the free world. It was a war for all the marbles. Everything was on the line, and a loss would have changed everything.”
Clifton concludes, “The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.”
The Next Economic Empires, the Potential Societal Hell
As to leadership, Clifton says that “traditional leadership through politics, military force, religion, or personal values won’t work in the future like it has in the past.”
Here’s why:
“As of 2010, the world has a total gross domestic product (GDP) — or the sum of countries’ total goods and services for one year — of $60 trillion. Of this, the United States has nearly $15 trillion or about 25%, which is huge. Over the next 30 years, the global GDP will grow to an estimated $200 trillion. So a new $140 trillion of customers, employees, new businesses, and equity will come into the global mix. The global war for jobs will be an all-out battle for that $140 trillion because within that sum of money is the next evolution of the best jobs in the world. Within that $140 trillion will rise the next economic empires, as well as the potential for societal hell.”
For emphasis: “Within that $140 trillion will rise the next economic empires, as well as the potential societal hell.”
December 7: A Salute to all Veterans
On November 9, I was honored by my friend Glenn Jernigan with an invitation to attend a Salute to the Veterans at the Capital City Club in Raleigh. I had the distinct pleasure of sitting with Medal of Honor award winner Joe Marm. Since 1861, the Medal of Honor has been awarded by the President of the United States to our nation’s bravest Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines and Coast Guardsmen.
You can read Marm’s story here. It’s a story of one man risking his life in the heat of battle during the Vietnam War for the greater good of his company and country. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of life above and beyond the call of duty.
Throughout the year, the nation has watch the 535 members of the U.S. Congress fighting the legislative battles in the effort to win the two economic world wars our country is engaged in: the war against sovereign debt and the war for global jobs competitiveness.
Can you name a single member of the U.S. Senate or U.S. House willing to sacrifice their party or their ideology for the greater good? Willing to make the kind of sacrifices that would earn them a “Medal of Honor” in the war against sovereign debt and global jobs competitiveness.
I didn’t think so. That’s why they are in trouble next year with the American voters.
Today, as we honor those who lost their lives in the Japanese bombing raid on our ships and airfields at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941, and those who died in the ensuing battles in the two great theaters of World War II, the European and the Asian-Pacific, may we remember that winning takes unity of purpose, a willingness to sacrifice, innovation, productivity … and a few Medal of Honor winners.
May God bless all who have served … and all who are serving.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!!!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32 “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” Sam Johnson, Chairman NC House Appropriations Committee 1969; Johnson, Hearn, Vinegar, Gee & Glass, Raleigh, NC Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee; The Best Way to Get
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Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32
“The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.”
Sam Johnson, Chairman NC House Appropriations Committee 1969; Johnson, Hearn, Vinegar, Gee & Glass, Raleigh, NC
Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee; The Best Way to Get Rid of a Bad Law is to Enforce It
Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32
As We the People Prepare for Thanksgiving, May We Also Prepare our Ballots
As we the people prepare for Thanksgiving, may we give thanks for the U.S. Congressional Super Committee for confirming what we already knew: our nation’s greatest problem is a gridlocked Congress and the only solution is to throw them out … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
Sam Johnson, a distinguished Raleigh attorney who chaired the North Carolina House Appropriations Committee in 1969, instructed me many years ago, “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” Johnson’s Law applies to everything in life. If you want to get rid of a bad preacher, put them on TV! If you want to get rid of a bad governor, let them govern.
If you want to get rid of fiscally irresponsible Members of Congress, let them manage the budget.
But what about the president, isn’t he equally responsible for the inability of our national leaders to come up with a plan to deal with our debt/deficit/jobs crisis? The voters say it’s the Congress.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average “Job Approval” for Congress is 12.3%, with 81.7% disapproving of the job Congress is doing.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average “Job Approval” for President Obama is 44.1%, with 49.1% disapproving of the job the president is doing.
No matter what we think the truth is about who is to blame for the failure of the debt/deficit/jobs crisis negotiations, the fact is that nearly four times as many Americans blame Congress for the failure than the president. Who is more likely to be punished politically, the guy with the 44.1% job approval or the guys with the 12.3% job approval?
This Congress has proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are incapable of leading this country out of our economic crisis and into a future of global competitiveness with the emerging economic superpowers.
A Bankrupt Country is Defenseless, Illiterate, Unhealthy and Uncompetitive
The U.S. Congress has given the American public no other choice than to replace them. Why? Because they have proven time and again that their party or their ideology is more important than the greater good of the United States.
A bankrupt country is a defenseless country. We are rendering our country bankrupt, and therefore defenseless, with sacred cow defense spending. This Congress has sold us out to the Pentagon and the military industrial complex.
A bankrupt country cannot educate its children. We are rendering our country bankrupt and threatening our overall literacy with sacred cow education spending. This Congress has sold us out to the education bureaucracy and teachers unions.
A bankrupt country cannot promote the general welfare of its citizens. We are rendering our country bankrupt and our most needy vulnerable with cradle to the grave sacred cow social programs, retirement packages and health care entitlements. This Congress has sold us out to greedy public employee unions and greedy special interest groups … like SEIU and AARP.
A bankrupt country cannot create an entrepreneurial environment for global private sector free market competitiveness. We are rendering our country bankrupt and our businesses uncompetitive with bailouts of our banks, automobile manufacturers, housing lenders and insurance companies. This Congress has sold us out to Bank of America, GM, AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
A bankrupt country cannot create an entrepreneurial infrastructure of great universities and public/private partnerships for innovative thinking and long-range problem solving for a new generation of young adults by bankrupting our country with tax loopholes and low marginal rates for those who have benefited the most from the freedom to compete for profit in America. This Congress has sold us out to those who can afford to game the system … and those who turn statesmen into cowed wimps with ploys like the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
It’s Time for a New Generation of Radical Moderates, Reformers and Innovators
Throughout the three past election cycles of shifting partisan fortunes, voters were trying to say to would-be leaders that our country is in serious trouble and that we must put partisanship, ideology and sacred cow budgeting second to the greater need for economic stability and global competitiveness.
In 2006 and 2008, Republicans lost the trust of the American people. Democrats took over the U.S. Congress and the Oval Office.
Big Mistake #1: The Democrats thought …
Big Mistake #1: Democrats thought they were being elected because of their party and their ideology. Nothing could have been further from the truth.
Voters were concerned about deficit spending, the national debt, and wars being waged because of weapons of mass destruction … that didn’t exist. They wanted competent leaders to solve those problems … not Democrats or liberals.
In 2008, voters were concerned about the housing crisis and the Wall Street meltdown, bank bailouts and huge job losses. They had lost faith in the ability of Republicans and conservatives to solve those problems and wanted competent leaders to solve those problems.
My Democrat friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Democrat or a liberal.
Since taking their oath of office in January of 2009, President Obama and the Democrats have governed as if the voters chose them because of their party and ideology. That is precisely why Democrats summarily lost the Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009, Teddy Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts in 2010, along with the U.S. House of Representatives, Governors and state legislators all over America in the fall of 2010.
On March 23, 2010, in an Indonesian TV interview, President Obama referred to his healthcare reform bill as, “The most important domestic priority.” Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat!!!!!!
My Democrat friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Democrat or a liberal.
Big Mistake #2: The Republicans thought …
Big Mistake #2: Republicans thought they were being elected in 2010 because of their party and their ideology. Nothing could have been further from the truth.
Voters were concerned about a $1 trillion budget deficit, a $13 trillion national debt, and wars being waged because of weapons of mass destruction … that didn’t exist. They wanted competent leaders to solve those problems … not Republicans or conservatives.
In 2010, voters were concerned about the housing crisis and the Wall Street bonuses and $787 billion stimulus spending and ever-increasing unemployment and foreclosures. They had lost faith in the ability of Democrats and liberals to solve those problems and wanted competent leaders to solve those problems.
My Republican friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Republican or a conservative.
Since taking their oath of office in January of 2011, Congressional Republicans have governed as if the voters chose them because of their party and ideology. That is precisely why all of the polls show the job approval of Congress in general and Republicans in particular at historic lows.
You had a chance to earn the faith of the American people during the debt ceiling debate in the summer and the debt/deficit management debate this fall and you blew it.
My Republican friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Republican or a conservative.
It’s Time to Throw Them Out … Especially the Democrats and the Republicans
Sam Johnson instructed me wisely when he said, “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” We can certainly see the value of Johnson’s Law when applied to this Congress.
If you want to get rid of fiscally irresponsible members of Congress, let them manage the budget.
As we the people prepare for Thanksgiving, may we give thanks for the U.S. Congressional Super Committee for confirming what we already knew: our nation’s greatest problem is a gridlocked Congress and the only solution is to throw them out … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
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Happy Thanksgiving!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30 “The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.” Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2,
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Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30
“The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.”
Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: GOP U.S. Presidential Ticket
Yesterday’s John Davis Political Report suggested that the Republican Presidential ticket in 2012 was likely to be Romney-Gingrich, and that President Obama may have to replace Vice President Biden with a business person, like Erskine Bowles, in order to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who has the credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Gingrich brings two valuable/essential political assets to the GOP ticket: staying power (he’s as tough skinned, politically savvy and as intelligent as anyone), and conservative bona fides. No Democrat will defeat Gingrich in a Vice Presidential debate, and no Republican will spark more enthusiasm among Tea Party economic conservatives and Republican social conservatives than Gingrich.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 11/3/2011: Romney-Gingrich likely GOP Ticket
- Romney’s seasoning will win him the nomination … as the last contender standing.
- However, Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Tea Party support as well as the support of the most conservative Republicans … who don’t like him at all.
- Romney: has been at 25% all year, meaning 75% of the GOP prefer someone else.
- Newt Gingrich: will bring conservative enthusiasm to the ticket.
- Rick Perry: will continue to implode under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush. Fear of a third Bush term will be his doom. (Oct 2008 Bush job approval was 25%; Obama job approval today is: 45%)
- Herman Cain: is through due in part to an inept campaign manager (thinks blowing cigarette smoke into the camera in a TV ad is politically clever) and no campaign organization (try turning out Iowa caucus voters on a cold rainy January day without a ground game). Cain’s apparent strategy, winning the White House with a “There’s a sucker born every minute” snow job, was doomed from the start. His poor crisis management in the face of sexual harassment allegations is confirmation of the ineptitude of his campaign manager and his not ready for prime time candidacy.
- Ron Paul: too old at age 76 to begin an administration (Reagan oldest at 69; Wm. H. Harrison was 67); doubts about electability continue to plague the Paul camp.
- Rick Santorum: too angry/whiny/defensive (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.8%)
- Michelle Bachmann: too happy (Real Clear Politics polls average 3.8%); “out of money and ideas,” says Ed Rollins, Bachmann’s former campaign manager.
- John Huntsman: Obama’s Ambassador to China (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.2%)
- Newt Gingrich: the conservative’s conservative; great debater; staying power at the presidential level.
Gingrich will pick up Cain’s Votes in NC and US
North Carolina: Today’s Public Policy Polling survey shows GOP support for Gingrich at 22%, ahead of Romney’s 19%. Although Cain leads the list at 30%, his days are numbered. Gingrich will inherit most of Cain’s votes in North Carolina.
Perry has 10% among NC Republicans, Bachmann 4%, Paul 4%, Huntsman 2% and Santorum 2%.
National Republican Presidential: Although in the Real Clear Politics polling average for Gingrich runs behind Cain (26%), Romney (24%) and Perry (10%), he is more likely than Perry to pick up Cain’s votes … which will put him ahead of Perry within the month.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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