John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“It was at this time in 1998 that Republicans made one of the greatest blunders in the history of American politics, shifting the momentum to the Democrats. In the final week of the 1998 campaigns, Republicans spent $10 million on television ads reminding voters of the sexual affair between President Clinton and Monica Lewinski.  Democrats were spending $30 million on a Get-out-the-vote campaign.” Late Breaking Trends, Sept. 29, 2010

Post:  Wednesday, September 29, 2010, by John Davis

Do Democrats have an October Surprise in the Making …Like the Trojan Horse of 1998?

The two biggest unknowns that will determine the outcome of most close races in North Carolina this November are: (1) How is Republican fund-raising fairing?  (2) Do the Democrats have an October turnout surprise?

We have no way of knowing the answer to either question until the end of October.  That’s when the campaign income and expense report are filed with the State Board of Elections.  What we do know is that Republicans have the momentum going into the final weeks of the 2010 election cycle.  We also know that Democrats have fought their way out of a corner before by beating the GOP with a more effective get-out-the-vote campaign.

In 1998, President Clinton’s scandalous affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky was in the headlines all year.  In addition to scandal, history was stacked against the Democrats that fall because it was a mid-term election year during which the party of the president always does poorly.  And finally, the Federal election commission reported a week before Election Day that Republicans had out-raised the Democrats by $92 million.

Gallup reported in October 1998 that GOP enthusiasm for voting was much higher than that of the Democrats, making them much more likely to vote.  Gallup also reported that the generic ballot question showed more voters likely to vote Republican than Democratic for congress.

It was at this time in 1998 that Republicans made one of the greatest blunders in the history of American politics, a blunder that shifted the momentum to the Democrats.  In the final week of the 1998 campaigns, Republicans spent $10 million on television ads reminding voters of the sexual affair between President Clinton and Monica Lewinski.

Republicans ran the Clinton/Lewinski attack ads despite the polls that showed that the American public did not want Clinton impeached, and despite the polls that showed that every time Special Persecutor Ken Starr released another round of explicit detail of the Clinton/Lewinski affair, Clinton’s favorability numbers would improve!  The day after the US House passed the Articles of Impeachment, Clinton’s “favorability” soared to 72%!

The weekend following the $10 million Clinton-bashing ad campaign, CNN/USA Today/Gallup did another poll leading to the astounding conclusion that a momentum shift toward the Democrats was happening; that 52% of the likely voters said that they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, and 48% said they were likely to vote for the Republican.

On this day twelve years ago, September 29, 1998, there was no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Democrats were going to suffer greatly at the polls.  Here is what actually happened:

• Republican US Sen. Lauch Faircloth lost to unknown Democrat John Edwards
• Republicans lost control of the North Carolina House of Representatives
• No change in party in power in the US Senate and US House
• No change in the partisan mix of US governors
• No change in the partisan mix of U.S. House members from North Carolina
• Gov. Hunt’s “Job Approval” was still above 70%
• Marc Basnight was still in charge of the NC Senate

Democrats did something in November 1998 that no party had done since 1934, and that was to add seats in congress during a mid-term election year while holding the White House.

How did they do it?

Democrats were so concerned about minimizing the damage they were anticipating from the Clinton-Lewinski scandal … along with the damage from the fact that they were being outspent by Republicans during  mid-term election year, that they decided to invest $30 million in a Get-Out-the-Vote campaign.  The GOTV campaign featured for the first time computer-dialed “robo-calls;” taped phone messages from the President and First Lady phoned into millions of households.  It was their Trojan Horse.

North Carolina’s General Election Day begins Thursday, October 14, 2010.  That’s the first day of early voting in North Carolina.  In 2008, 2.64 million of the 4.31 million votes cast in the NC General Election were early voters; 70% of the early voters in 2008 were Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%).

Today the trends favor a Republican takeover of the US House and both chambers of the NC General Assembly.  But the only thing that counts on Election Day is who got their vote out.

Do Democrats have an October surprise in the making …like the Trojan Horse of 1998?  Have Republicans raised enough money to finance their own Trojan Horse?  Tension mounts.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Wednesday, September 29, 2010.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

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In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Pres.Obama admonished unenthusiastic Democrats today by describing their lack of interest in voting as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.” Unfortunately for Pres. Obama, that’s exactly how many Democrats would describe his priorities since taking over the presidency.” Late Breaking Trends, Sept. 28, 2010

Post:  Tuesday, September 28, 2010, by John Davis

Pres. Obama blasts politically indifferent Democrats as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.”

Pres. Obama admonished unenthusiastic Democrats today by describing their lack of interest in voting as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.” Unfortunately for Pres. Obama, that’s exactly how many Democrats would describe his priorities since taking over the presidency … “inexcusable” and “irresponsible” … especially as they relate to his handling of the economic crisis.

According to Gallup today, only 10% of Americans would rate the economic conditions of the country as either “excellent or good” combined. A total of 47% rate economic conditions in the US today as “poor.”  Especially hard-hit are the youngest of American workers.

That’s why the president is at the University of Wisconsin today … trying to shore up his relationship with young voters. Today’s Gallup.com website also shows Underemployment at 18.8% (unemployed plus those who are working part-time but seeking full-time employment.)  If you adjust the Underemployment figure for only young workers in the 18-to-24-year-old crowd, Underemployment jumps to 38%. Little wonder that the president is having such a tough time keeping his base of young voters committed to his agenda.

On the political front, according to Real Clear Politics.com today, September 28, 2010, Pres. Obama’s “job approval” is only 45%; congressional “job approval” is only 23%.  That explains why 61% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.

The biggest news of the week thus far is the announcement yesterday by Civitas that Republicans now have an 11% lead on the legislative generic ballot question in North Carolina.  The question was asked, “If the election were held today for state legislature, would you be voting for the Republican or the Democrat.”  A total of 44% of North Carolina registered voters said that they would vote for the Republican; 33% said they would vote for the Democrat.

The most startling number coming out of the new Civitas poll is that Unaffiliated voters, now totaling 1,450,285 in the Ole North State (24% of all voters), favor Republicans over Democrats by a 49% to 14% advantage.

How does it all impact North Carolina’s dual battles for the majority in the state Senate and House?   Today’s Late Breaking Trends charts show North Carolina Republicans with a solid momentum advantage. On the North Carolina Senate chart, Republicans have a 59% to 41% momentum advantage. On the North Carolina House chart, Republicans have a 56% to 44% momentum advantage.

If you add the partisan momentum to the state Senate races, you will see that if the elections were held today Republicans would win at least 27 seats in the 50 member North Carolina Senate … giving them the majority of the first time since 1898.  There are five tossup races which, if split evenly, would give the North Carolina Senate Republicans a 29 seat majority.

If you add the partisan momentum to the state house races, you will see that if the elections were held today Republicans would win at least 59 seats in the 120 member North Carolina House … with 61 needed for the majority. If Democrats and Republicans split the 10 tossup races evenly, Republicans would wind up with a majority of 64 seats to 56 seats for the Democrats.

To my dear Democrat friends I have this to say:  I know that what you are experiencing seems like an undue piling on of bad news from every front. Well, it is a piling on of bad news from every front.  But it’s critical for you to remember that the sources of the bad news are the same sources that said that you were going to have a good year in 2006 and 2008.

Since August 16, I have gone to the most respected and reliable sources for political research on a daily basis and compiled the 12 numbers that make up the Late Breaking Trends report.  These sources include Gallup, Real Clear Politics, Civitas, Pollster.com, Public Policy Polling, North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, and the NC State Board of Elections.

The trend line created by the daily compilation of these 12 numbers from these reliable sources is solid. The prevailing political winds of 2010 favor Republicans … the trends say it’s so.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, September 28, 2010.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Trial Subscription                   $4.85               Two Weeks

Individual Subscription          $48.50             Annual                        Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                        $485.00           Annual                        Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription         $4850.00         Annual                        Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Thanks so much for supporting the John Davis Political Report!

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“The greatest irony of 2010 is this:  President Obama has become the president that he ran against.” Late Breaking Trends, September 27, 2010

September 27, 2010, by John Davis

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Likewise, timing has a lot to do with who wins political races.  Election years 2006 and 2008, were not a good time to be a Republican. This election year, 2010, is a good time to be a Republican.

The great irony of 2010 is this: the same circumstances and decisions that drove President George W. Bush’s “Job Approval” down well below 50% — thereby hurting all Republicans — are the circumstances and decisions that have driven President Barack Obama’s “Job Approval” down below 50% — thereby hurting all Democrats.

Both Presidents Bush and Obama were/are plagued by an economic crisis, a housing crisis, a banking crisis, a loss of consumer confidence, high unemployment, an unpopular war, an unpopular congress, and unpopular decisions like financial bailouts … all leading to a loss of trust in their leadership.

The greatest irony of 2010 is this:  President Obama has become the president that he ran against.

While updating today’s Late Breaking Trends charts, I decided to take a look at where things were in North Carolina this time two years ago just to see if there were trends in place that predicted the November outcome.  During September 17 – 19, 2008, Public Policy Polling, the Democrat-leaning polling firm based in Raleigh, conducted a statewide poll that showed GOP presidential nominee John McCain and Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama tied in North Carolina 46% to 46%.  During September 17-20, 2008, the Civitas Institute, a Republican-leaning organization based in Raleigh, conducted a statewide poll that showed McCain and Obama tied at 45% to 45%.

Public Policy Polling, the Democrat-leaning polling firm, conducted another statewide poll in North Carolina during October 25 – 26, 2008, that showed Obama leading McCain by one point, 49% to 48%. The Civitas Institute, the Republican-leaning group, conducted a statewide poll October 27 – 29, 2008, that showed Obama leading McCain by one point, 47% to 46%.

That’s why it came as no surprise that Obama carried the state … the trends of the day said it was coming.  That’s why today’s trends are so significant.  There is universal agreement in September of 2010 among all polling groups that the economy is the #1 concern, that the state and nation are headed in the wrong direction, that this congress is doing a lousy job, and that Obama is a drag on Democratic candidates.

Pollster.com, one of the three primary sources I use daily to update the Late Breaking Trends charts, shows President Barack Obama with a North Carolina “Favorable” rating of only 39.2%; “Unfavorable” 48.2%.  As to the all-important “Job approval,” only 43.2% of North Carolinians approve of the job President Obama is doing; 54.2% “Disapprove.”

Nationally, according to Pollster.com, Obama’s “Job Approval” is 45.4%; 50.5% “Disapprove.”  As a matter of fact, there have been 362 national polls conducted in the United States just since January, and in only 26 of the 362 is Obama’s “Job Approval” above 50%.  If you average all 362 “Job Approval” ratings, President Obama’s 2010 average is 46.9%.

One of the best known predictors in modern American political history is that if the presidents “Job Approval” is below 50% during a mid-term election year, the party of the president loses an average of 36 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.  That trend has been tracked since 1946, and holds true in 14 of the 16 midterm election years.

North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as in 2008.  Instead, what Democrats are forced to see this year is a president plagued by the same circumstances and decisions as his predecessor … and proving himself no more capable of managing the crises of the day, whether they be the war, the gulf oil spill, or the economy.

President Obama has become the president that he ran against.

There is no greater an example of that sentiment among voters than the audience member at last week’s CNBC town hall meeting, an African American woman, who said, “I’m one of your middle-class Americans.  Quite frankly, I’m exhausted. Exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the man for change I voted for, and deeply disappointed with where we are right now.”

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Likewise, timing has a lot to do with who wins campaigns.  Election years 2006 and 2008, were not a good time to be a Republican. This election year, 2010, is a good time to be a Republican.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Monday, September 27, 2010.

The GOP is very likely to fair well on Election Day here in North Carolina this fall, maybe even winning the majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly.

But don’t take my word for it.  It’s the trends of the day that say it’s coming.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

NOTE:

In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily.  I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:

Trial Subscription                   $4.85               Two Weeks

Individual Subscription          $48.50             Annual                        Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                        $485.00           Annual                        Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription         $4850.00         Annual                        Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.

Thanks so much for supporting the John Davis Political Report!

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Compare today’s 11% of Americans who rate the economy as “excellent or good” to the 74% who rated the economy as “excellent or good” during election year 2000.  All incumbents were safe in the year 2000. They were not safe in 1994, the last time Americans rated the economy at 11% “excellent or good, and they are not safe today.”             Late Breaking Trends, September 13, 2010

Post: September 13, 2010   by John Davis

LATE BREAKING TRENDS – NORTH CAROLINA’S DAILY PARTISAN POLITICAL ADVANTAGE FORECAST

UNDEREMPLOYMENT:  Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts you will see that Gallup reports that underemployment is back up to 18.5%, moving in the wrong direction for any vulnerable incumbent seeking reelection. Underemployment is a combination of unemployment and those who are working part-time but wishing to work full-time.

If underemployment is at 18.5% for all Americans, it’s around 28% for young Americans in the 18 to 29-year-old age group; around 38% for the youngest American workers in the 18 to 24 year-old age group. It’s little wonder that young people are disillusioned with Pres. Obama and are opting out of this election cycle.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:  Gallup also reports today that only 11% of Americans rate the economic conditions of the country as either “excellent or good.” Almost half, 46%, rate economic conditions in the country today as “poor.” The last time only 11% of Americans rated the economic conditions of the country is either “excellent or good” was 1994 … the election year that a Republican tide swept Democrats out of office throughout the 50 states. Compare that 11% to the 74% who rated the economy as either “excellent or good” in election year 2000. That was during the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. All incumbents were safe in the year 2000. They were not safe in 1994, and they are not safe today.

OBAMA “JOB APPROVAL”: Real Clear Politics reports today that president Obama’s average job approval continues to hover well below 50% … now at 46.3% approving and 49.3% disapproving.  Here in North Carolina, Obama’s average job disapproval is 55%, with only 43% approving of the job that he is doing as president.

CONGRESSIONAL “JOB APPROVAL”:  Congressional job approval continues to be dismal, with only 23% approving and a whopping 72% disapproving. On the generic ballot question, “If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican for Congress,” Republicans enjoy a 48% to 40% advantage. Why are Democrats in such trouble? The answer is in another number from Real Clear Politics: only 29% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction; 63% say that the country is on the wrong track.

KISSELL MOST VULNERABLE NC CONGRESSMAN:  There is no question that members of Congress will take the brunt of American voter ire in November. Here in North Carolina, the most likely member of the U.S. Congress to lose is Congressman Larry Kissell, a Montgomery County Democrat, who holds the seat held by Robin Hayes, a Cabarrus County Republican, for five terms.  Kissell’s opponent is Harold Johnson, who was a sportscaster on Charlotte-based WSOC TV for decades.  According to today’s Hotline political report, Kissell is on the short list of vulnerable Democrats who will receive over $1 million to buy air time.  Hummm, he just may have a fighting chance.  Oh, wait a minute, there is a story in today’s News & Observer about a group named Americans for Job Security that plans to spend $600,000 against Kissell.  It’s all about who votes, and right now it’s the Republicans who are enthusiastic about voting.

In 2008, Democratic voters made up 55% of the voters to 45% for Republicans … in one of the most successful years for Democrats in modern political history.  However, in 2006, 2004 and 2002, more Republicans turned out than Democrats in this district.  The last election year that Republicans enjoyed the partisan momentum was 2002.  President Bush had high job approval numbers and Elizabeth Dole, who won the US Senate race, was treated like a rock star everywhere she went.  That year 54% of the voters who turned out in this district were Republicans; 46% were Democrats.  Kissell is very vulnerable.

BURR ON TRACK TO WIN REELECTION:  In the U.S. Senate race here in North Carolina, there is little doubt that U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is the odds-on favorite in his race with Sec. of State Elaine Marshall.  Burr reported $6.3 million cash-on-hand to the Federal Election Commission as of June 30; Marshall reported $188,000. Insiders say that Cal Cunningham, the Davidson County attorney who lost the primary to Marshall in May, was the preferred nominee of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in Washington … having been perceived as the only one of the two who could defeat Sen. Burr.  Without the financial backing of the DSCC, Marshall has little hope of winning.

GOP LIKELY TO WIN MAJORITY U.S. HOUSE:  Overall, Republicans only need a net gain of 39 seats to take over the U.S. House of Representatives. Charlie Cook, the country’s most seasoned prognosticator, says that Republicans will pick up a minimum of 40 seats.  Bottom line: Republicans are very likely to take over the U.S. House.  They are not as likely to take over the U.S. Senate. Look for divided power and gridlock in Washington during the next couple of years … gridlock seasoned with the hot sauce of partisan recalcitrance.

GOP MAY WIN MAJORITY IN N.C. HOUSE:  Republicans are also on track to win a majority of the seats in the North Carolina House. If you haven’t already, take a look at my new feature Investors Political Daily. Investors Political Daily gives you a scoreboard that shows where the Democrats and Republicans are in their battle for the all-important 61 seats out of the 120-member North Carolina House.

Republicans have 59 seats that they have either already won (29), are likely to win (22), or are favored to win (8).  Democrats are trailing at 51 seats that they have either already won (11), are likely to win (28), or are favored to win (12).  Democrats will have to win all 10 of the tossup races in order to keep the majority.

NC SENATE SCOREBOARD IN TOMORROW’S INVESTORS POLITICAL DAILY: Tomorrow you will receive the Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard. One of the key variables used to forecast the outcome of state Senate and House races is the Late Breaking Trends partisan political advantage. Today, September 13, 2010, Republicans have solid partisan political advantage over Democrats in North Carolina … an advantage that translates into enthusiasm which translates into money and volunteers and fired-up candidates.

Well there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends for Monday, September 13, 2010.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates

“Investor’s Political Daily Scoreboard: Republicans have 59 or the 61 needed for the majority; Democrats have 51 of the 61 House seats needed for the majority.” Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report

Post: September 8, 2010, by John Davis

Republicans May Win Majority in the NC House

Today, the John Davis Political Report is introducing a new feature entitled Investors Political Daily.  Investors Political Daily provides you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.  Here are the inaugural results:

Out of the 120 North Carolina House races, only 30 are still in play.  In 20 of the 30 races in play, one of the two candidates is “favored” at the starting line … but the advantage is not an “uncontestable advantage.” There are only 10 “toss up races” out of the 120 House races.

Today’s Investors Political Daily shows that Democrats have 51 of the 61 seats needed to maintain the majority in the North Carolina House.  Eleven (11) Democrats have “no opposition;” 28 are “likely winners” … because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  The most common “uncontestable advantage” is the fact that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.  Another 12 Democrats are “favored” to win, in most cases because the voters in their district are a bit more likely to favor one party over the other … but it’s not a sure bet.

Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Republicans have 59 of the 61 seats needed to gain the majority in the North Carolina House.  Twenty-nine (29) Republicans have “no opposition;” 22 are “likely winners” because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  Once again, the most common “uncontestable advantage” is the fact that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.   Another 8 Republicans are favored to win.

The bottom line is this:  Democrats will have to win all 10 of the “toss up races” in order to hold the majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives.  Republicans only need to win 2 “toss up races” to gain the majority.  Of course, that assumes that both parties win the races where they currently enjoy an advantage.

Opportunity Races:  Another feature of the Investors Political Daily is the weekly list of Top 10 Opportunity Races for free-market advocates There are 10 races selected in today’s Investors Political Daily as “Opportunity Races” for the first week in September. These include incumbent business allies who face tough opposition, and non-incumbents who would likely be business allies if they win … and who can win if you will but help.  They are noted with a green checkmark.

From an investment standpoint, if your objective is to improve the balance of power in the North Carolina House so business folks can grow and thrive and restore jobs for the unemployed and underemployed, you should put your money and time where you can make the difference in the outcome of the race; not where the outcome is already decided.  Pick a candidate with a green check mark … or one of the other thirty house races still in play.  They really do need your help.

Well, there you have it.  I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Republican average weekly advantages over Democrats during August are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.” Gallup News Release, August 30, 2010

Post: August 31, 2010, by John Davis

GOP HEAT WAVE BREAKS 68-YEAR-OLD RECORD DATING TO 1942

It has been hot here in Raleigh this year.  As a matter of fact, this summer we had a 102° day that broke a 61-year-old record for heat in the Triangle.  Politically, throughout the United States, it has been a long, hot summer too … especially for Republicans.  According to Gallup, when it comes to political heat, the Grand Ole Party has broken a 68-year-old record.

Yesterday, Monday, August 30, 2010, Gallup announced that Republicans had a 51% to 41% lead over Democrats among registered voters in Gallup’s weekly tracking of 2010 congressional generic ballot.  Gallup stated that Republican weekly leads over Democrats in August “are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.  That’s 68 years ago … a fact that cannot be overemphasized.

August has not ended well for Democrats.  Just last week, on the economic/political fronts:

• Sales of existing homes dropped 27% from June to July, the lowest point since 1999.
• The Dow closed just below 10,000 for the first time since early July.
• On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described the nation’s economic outlook as “inherently uncertain” and said the economy “remains vulnerable to unexpected developments.”
• ON THE POLITICAL FRONT:  In Florida last Tuesday, the Democratic Senate primary drew just over 900,000 voters; the Republican primary, more than 1,250,000.  National political observers said that independents went Republican on Tuesday in huge numbers; and that Republicans turned out big … a lot of Democrats stayed home.
• ALASKA UPSET:  Perhaps the biggest news of the day last Tuesday was the apparent upset of Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who outspent her Sarah Palin and Tea Party backed opponent 20-to-1 … the outcome to be decided this week by absentee ballots.
• Also on Tuesday, the North Carolina State Board of Elections fined Democratic Gov. Perdue $30,000 for failing to disclose 42 private airplane flights in a timely manner.
• Wake County DA Colon Willoughby is reviewing the records to see if any further action is warranted.  Listen for the roar of airplane engines in those political ads this fall.
• DISSENTION IN THE DEMOCRATIC RANKS: The State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) picketed the home of Ken Eudy, former head of the state Democratic Party, during a fundraiser last week for the state Senate Democratic Caucus.  According to Tom Campbell with NCSPIN, there were more uninvited protestors than invited guests.
• Campbell also reported that another NC Senate Caucus fundraiser in Linville was attended by mostly Appalachian State University folks … and that both Senators Marc Basnight and David Hoyle were reportedly pessimistic about the fall elections.
  

As if last week’s news wasn’t bad enough, now, Gallup makes two major political announcements on Monday: the GOP’s record-breaking lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot question, and, Gallup announced on Monday that Republicans have a 25-point lead over Democrats when it comes to voters who are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall … the largest advantage of the year.

Republicans are poised to take the US House this fall; not as likely to take the US Senate … the opportunities just are not there.  However, here in North Carolina, Republicans have their best shot since 1994 of winning a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly.

Coming soon to the John Davis Political Report:  Investors Political Daily.  This new feature will highlight free-market candidates who will win IF you will invest in their candidacy.  I will also keep a running count of where both parties are in the battle for the legislative majority.

WEBSITE REMODELING NEAR COMPLETION – LOOK FOR LABOR DAY LAUNCH

When you finish this report, take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you will see two changes:

• First, I have consolidated the two campaign finance variables … mid-year “Cash on Hand” of all candidates by party along with “Party Fundraising.”  I did this because historically candidates who do not need all of their money pass it on to the party who uses it to help other party candidates.  Ultimately, it’s all the same war chest.
• However, knowing the importance of the financial advantage in a campaign, I quadrupled the weight of the combined fundraising in the algorithm. No other variable weighs more.
• Finally, I have added the NC Obama “Job Approval” variable.  After pouring over polls all last week, it became very clear that this election is a referendum on President Obama.  This variable is tripled in the “Late Breaking Trends” algorithm.

Well, there you have it.  The week began with North Carolina Republicans continuing their partisan political advantage … by 16 points in the Senate chart, and by 12 points in the House chart.  All else being equal, the Republican momentum going into the General Election races adds 8 points to GOP state Senate candidates and 6 points to GOP state house candidates.  Remember, momentum translates into enthusiasm which translates into money and volunteers and fired-up candidates.  It’s the winning difference in close races.

Thanks again for reading and listening to the John Davis political report.