Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles. Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm First Generation of Leaders
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Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm
First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898
The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.
Collapsed. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010. Lost the state Senate. Lost the state House of Representatives. First time since 1898.
No political warfare generals. The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012. Including President Obama.
Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term. Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008. Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898. A lame duck.
In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.
And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats. McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.
In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand. Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand. McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall. Dalton: $2.6 million.
The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.
The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:
NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand. This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party. Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.
North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Fact: Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.
Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift
According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans. That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans. There’s more.
At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans. That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.
For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.
Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters. Obama volunteers.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Super PACs a Super PROBLEM for NC Politicians: 1,000 high-dollar contributors wiped out by 1 Super PAC contributor The Hypocrisy of Congressman David Price’s Moral Outrage Post: Friday, February 24, 2012 Vol. V, No. 7 11:13 am Joe Democrat and Joe Republican Get $1 Million Imagine 1,000 high-dollar contributors writing a check for $1000 each
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Super PACs a Super PROBLEM for NC Politicians: 1,000 high-dollar contributors wiped out by 1 Super PAC contributor
The Hypocrisy of Congressman David Price’s Moral Outrage
Post: Friday, February 24, 2012 Vol. V, No. 7 11:13 am
Joe Democrat and Joe Republican Get $1 Million
Imagine 1,000 high-dollar contributors writing a check for $1000 each and giving them to Joe Democrat, all breathing a collective sigh of relief knowing that once again they have secured their power in North Carolina with a million-dollar financial advantage. Now, imagine 1 contributor writing a check for $1,000,000 and giving it to Joe Republican’s Super PAC. That’s the new political reality of funding campaigns in North Carolina.
Allowing Super PACs to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money independently may be a bad rule for our Democracy, but in 2012 it is the rule. Ignoring Super PACs is unilateral disarmament. President Obama came to that conclusion last week. He came to a similar conclusion four years ago when he changed his mind about limiting his campaign spending to public funding.
Obama’s decision to abandon public funding in 2008 allowed him to spend $760 million to John McCain’s $358 million. It’s why he won. He is not giving away that advantage.
David Price’s Moral Outrage Rings Hollow
North Carolina Congressman David Price, D-Orange wrote an opinion piece in this week’s US News and World Report, Super PACs Strike at the Heart of Democracy, in which he says that Super PACs are “a culmination of a decades-long campaign by conservative groups and corporate interests” to gain undue influence in politics.
Where was David Price’s moral outrage over the century-long undue influence by liberal groups and corporate interests when it was being used by Democrats to keep their majorities in the legislature, on the courts and in the executive branch here in North Carolina?
Where was David Price’s moral outrage over undue influence of outside money in North Carolina politics when $5,032,908 was being spent by unions in 2008 on North Carolina candidates, $4,532,540 of which was spent by public employee unions and their affiliated unions? Here are the facts:[1]
- SEANC is Local #2008, affiliated with SEIU (Service Employees Int’l Union)
- SEIU invested $1,810,566 in NC candidates in 2008
- Democrats enjoyed $1,760,556 of SEIU’s money, or 97%; Republicans 3%
- SEIU gave the North Carolina Democratic Party over $1 million
- SEANC (State Employees Assn. of NC) contributed $243,706 to NC candidates
- Democratic candidates received $218,956 of SEANC money, or 90%
- Republican candidates received $24,750 of SEANC money, or 10%
- NCAE (NC Association of Educators) contributed $265,330 to 200 NC candidates
- Democratic candidates received $245,980 of NCAE money, or 93%
- NEA (National Education Association) invested $2,212,936 in NC candidates
- 100% of NEA’s $2,212,936 went to help Democrats; Republicans 0%
- NEA ran a $1.7 million independent expenditure campaign for Bev Perdue
Where was David Price’s moral outrage over the undue influence of money in politics when North Carolina Democrats received 97% of the outside public employee union money and 100% of the National Education Association’s $2.2 million in 2008?
- United Auto Workers union gave the North Carolina Democratic Party over $100,000
- DRIVE, the Teamsters union, contributed $361,617 to NC Democrats
- IBEW (International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers) gave $36,500 to Democrats
- UFCE (United Food and Commercial Workers) contributed over $100,000 to the Democratic Party of North Carolina
If Congressman David Price would go to the website, www.opensecrets.org, and do a search on the largest political independent expenditure groups, he would discover that SEIU was #1 on the list of the Top 100 all-time biggest spenders in 2008.[2] In 2008, SEIU spent $85 million to influence the outcome of elections, and was rewarded by President Obama with support for the Employee Free Choice Act legislation and top White House jobs including political director, and positions on the NLRB and the president’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.[3]
In 2006, SEIU spent $635,000 in North Carolina elections on TV and radio ads, mailings, opinion polls, and Get-Out-The-Vote phone banks – more than ANY BUSINESS PAC in NC. In 2004, SEIU spent $650,000 just on NC legislative races.
SEIU also contributed more than 10% of the total budget of FairJudges.net to run ads statewide for NC Supreme Court candidates in 2006; 3 of 4 were Democrats. FairJudges.net was one of the most unfair stunts pulled by Democrats in modern history. Step 1: Create public funding laws for Supreme Court candidates. Step 2: After the candidates have accepted public funding spending limits, create an independent expenditure committee that allows five times the number of ads to be run on behalf of your candidates. Where was Congressman David Price’s moral outrage then?
NEA and the NCAE invested $1,846,219 to help Beverly Perdue win the governor’s race in 2008. Where was Congressman David Price’s moral outrage then?
In addition to decrying the outside special interest liberal groups’ undue influence over the politics of this state, those “corporate interests” that he is linking to conservative groups have always given a disproportionate share of their money to Democrats, who along with other liberal groups, have helped Democrats defeat Republicans for decades.
During my 25 years of tracking campaign money in North Carolina, I can safely say that if it had not been for “corporate interests,” Republicans would have had a majority in the General Assembly well before 2010, and would have had at least half of the 10-member Council of State.
Finally, Price writes that “outside groups shouldn’t be able to spend unlimited amounts of money to hijack the marketplace of ideas and drown out other voices, including those of candidates themselves.” No group can surpass the Democrats in North Carolina when it comes to hijacking the marketplace of ideas and drowning out other voices to gain undue influence.
Price concludes by writing that the “first steps in restoring integrity in our democracy” are a different balance on the U.S. Supreme Court and/or a constitutional amendment.
If Congressman David Price wants to restore integrity in our democracy he needs to begin by looking in the mirror.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
[1] Union contributions and independent expenditures database provided by Civitas Institute
[2] http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/indexp.php
[3] The Wall Street Journal, SEIU Campaign Spending Pays Political Dividends, May 16, 2009
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or complete the subscription form here and mail to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 3071
4, Raleigh, NC, 27622.P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. I moderated a panel Wednesday for the Independent Insurance Agents of NC featuring David Parker, Chair of the NC Democratic Party, and Robin Hayes, Chair, NC Republican Party. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. jnd
Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012 “So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in
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Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance
Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012
“So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in a lot of money from across the country to quickly make this a race.” Public Policy Polling, January 30, 2012, More on the NC governor’s race
Bowles Was the Biggest Threat to McCrory; Lt. Gov. Dalton Trails by 15 Points
I can hear the champagne corks popping all over the state as backers of former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s campaign for the GOP nomination for governor celebrate today’s decision by Erskine Bowles not to seek the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination. According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, Bowles was the only serious Democratic candidate who polled within 10 points of McCrory, trailing McCrory only 44-42.
Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton of Rutherford County, state Rep. Bill Faison of Orange County and former Congressman Bob Etheridge of Harnett County have announced their intentions to run for governor in the Democratic primary. The Public Policy Poll shows Dalton and Etheridge trailing McCrory by 15 points (50-35); Faison by 19 points (50-31). Former state Treasurer Richard Moore, still considering the race, trails McCrory by 11 points (47-36).
McCrory, the presumptive Republican Party nominee in the race for governor, made his formal announcement in Greensboro Tuesday, January 31, 2012, vowing to put an end to the Democrats’ “scandal-ridden good old boy (and girl) network and fix the state’s broken economy.”
Erskine Bowles was more than a serious threat to McCrory’s quest to be governor, his candidacy would have reinvigorated the North Carolina Democratic Party by attracting much needed national money and talent. Now, the steep political decline continues for Democrats as NC Republicans ascend to dominance.
Bowles Would Have Reinvigorated a Democratic Party in Disarray
The North Carolina Democrats have been in political disarray since losing the state Senate and House to Republicans in 2010 … a first in 140 years.
Compounding the loss of political dominance by Democrats is the fact that Gov. Perdue has proven to be a weak governor and a drag on their candidates. Further, Perdue has been tripped up time and again by allegations of campaign improprieties and the investigations and indictments of key staff and supporters.
“Bev Perdue’s retirement has clearly helped Democratic chances of holding the Governor’s office this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
There is no greater evidence of how the political fortunes of North Carolina Democrats have diminished than the campaign finance report filed this week by Sen. Martin Nesbitt, Senate Minority Leader, the most powerful Democrat in the Senate. Nesbitt’s January 2012 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he raised only $52,264 as of year-end 2011. At the same time two years ago, January 2010, then Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight reported raising $1,519,768.
Mid-year 2011 campaign finance reports showed Republicans in the NC Senate with a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over the loyal opposition party, a historic first, with NC House Republicans raising four times the money of their Democratic counterparts.
Republicans have Power, Money and Friendly Districts
Power has always meant money; money means you have the resources to hold on to your base of candidates, win most of the close races in “swing” districts, and even raid the opposition’s base and pick off a few of their seats. Republicans have the power, the money … and the districts.
Last November, the United States Justice Department preapproved the Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps, virtually assuring Republicans a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly throughout the decade. Two weeks ago, a 3-judge panel ruled against several plaintiffs, including the NAACP, who were trying to delay the May 8 primary elections based on allegation that the maps would re-segregate the state and diminish the influence of black voters.
These two rulings add to the list of legislative and judicial redistricting wins for the North Carolina GOP and suggest that the maps will withstand any future litigation.
Further evidence of a downward spiral for North Carolina Democrats came today as the leading Democrat in the NC House, Minority Leader Joe Hackney, announce that he would not seek reelection. Hackney, who served as Speaker of the House two terms, brings the total number of Democrats not seeking reelection in the NC House to 9, with more to come due to incumbent Democrats double-bunked into the same district.
McCrory has High Favorability Ratings & $2 Million in the Bank
According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, not only was the hypothetical race between Bowles and McCrory a virtual tie, 46% of North Carolina voters said that they are “generally leaning toward voting for a Democrat in the race for governor, with 45% saying they will vote Republican in the governor’s race.”
However, with Bowles out and no other Democrat within striking distance of McCrory, the presumptive GOP nominee’s political fortunes will soar … especially his fundraising.
Favorable findings for McCrory in the Public Policy Polling survey last weekend include:
- McCrory has high name recognition (76%) at the starting gate, with many more voters having a favorable opinion (45%); only 31% an unfavorable opinion
- In a state where 24% of all registered voters are Unaffiliated, Independent voters see McCrory positively by a 55%/25% spread
The year-end 2011 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that McCrory raised $2.6 million from 6,120 contributors last year, and has a little over $2 million cash on hand.
Bowles would have had no problem playing catch-up with fundraising. In both his 2002 and 2004 losing races for U.S. Senate seats won by Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, he spent $12.7 million and $13.4 million respectively, with $6.8 million coming out of his own pocket in 2002.
Now, Democrats will struggle all year to raise a competitive war chest in the Governor’s race. They simply do not have a superstar like Bowles to re-energize their financial base.
Without a SuperSTAR like Bowles, the Best Hope for Democrats is a SuperPAC
There was a news story last week about SAS co-founder and CEO Jim Goodnight hosting a fundraiser for Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton. Goodnight is generally recognized as the wealthiest man in the State of North Carolina and one of the wealthiest in the world.
Goodnight has a passion for education, especially elementary and secondary. The Public Policy Poll from last weekend notes a potential liability for McCrory, “his close ties to the unpopular Republican legislature and the cuts they’ve made to education.”
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling two years ago in the Citizen’s United case declared that wealthy individuals like Goodnight and corporations like SAS can spend an unlimited amount of money influencing the outcome of political races … provided they spend it independently and not in collusion with the campaigns they are attempting to help.
With the steep decline in the prowess of the North Carolina Democratic Party, and the rapid ascendancy of the Republican Party as the dominant political party, there are only two recovery options for the Democrats: an exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle or a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
I do not see the exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle on the list of statewide Democratic candidates. Disagree? Well, who would you say is the Jim Hunt of 2012? That leaves recovery option #2: a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
That’s where the Jim Goodnights of the state meet with the Citizen’s United decision; unlimited funding for everything the party lacks resources to do better than the Republicans … from voter registration and early voting turnout to unlimited millions in advertising dollars targeting every vulnerable Republican in the state.
You can already count on outside money pouring into the state with the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Charlotte and the fact that President Obama likes North Carolina. And, you can count on outside union money pouring in from the coffers of the NEA (teachers), AFSCME (government employees) and SEIU (service employees). But all of that money will pale in significance to the money now allowed under the Citizens United decision.
In the absence of a superstar like Erskine Bowles, the best hope for North Carolina Democrats is a SuperPAC. The traditional 10-to-1 advantage in total legislative campaign funds raised by the majority party is now chump change compared to the potential for a tsunami of outside SuperPAC funding.
There is a new political paradigm in North Carolina politics: the SuperPAC. If the GOP is to continue its ascendancy to political dominance, they must also embrace this new political reality in campaign funding.
Candidate filing begins on February 15, and ends on February 29. The primary is May 8.
Transcript of statement by Erskine Bowles released to AP this morning:
“I will not be a candidate for Governor. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to think what is the right thing for me to do. I don’t think anyone questions my love for North Carolina or my efforts to make our State a better place to live, work , or raise a family . I’ve done my best in this regard and I plan to continue to do so . There are lots of ways to make a difference , lots of ways to add to the community woodpile . I’m excited about helping our State’s and Nation’s leaders move North Carolina and our Country forward . We’ve got big challenges and great opportunities. I’m confident if we can get folks to put politics aside , and pull together , not apart , there are no problems we can’t solve working together. Erskine Bowles”
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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UPDATE – Governor Perdue: from Dumb Luck to Lame Duck; Slim Odds of Winning a Second term as Governor of North Carolina Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18 UPDATED JANUARY 26, 2012 “What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I
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UPDATE – Governor Perdue: from Dumb Luck to Lame Duck; Slim Odds of Winning a Second term as Governor of North Carolina
Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18 UPDATED JANUARY 26, 2012
“What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life.” Imaginary musings of Gov. Perdue as envisioned by Democrat consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, March 3, 2011
EDITOR’S NOTE 1/26/2012: Today’s news that Gov. Beverly Perdue will not seek reelection comes as no surprise. Throughout her administration, polls have put her 10 points behind in a rematch with her GOP rival Pat McCrory, and her job approval in the mid-30s, with the number of North Carolinians disapproving of the job she is doing near or above 50%. Eventually, her negative ratings raised so much doubt about her re-electability that many of her financial backers switched their support to Republican Pat McCrory.
The erosion of her financial support was the straw that broke the camels back. Last November 2, the News & Observer carried a story titled McCrory nabs Perdue backers, in which many of her former supporters talked about why they were jumping ship. Here are two examples:
“It’s absolutely nothing personal,” said Democrat George Jones, a former mayor of Jacksonville and Perdue backer and the host of a McCrory fundraiser. “Bev has swung hard to the left,” he continued. “I can’t support her policies and the direction she’s pursuing for this state.”
Another former supporter, Danny McQueen, a Morehead City furniture store owner, said, “She had an opportunity to work with Republicans and she chose not to do that. … That’s the reason that I switched.”
Last year, the July 28 John Davis Political Report titled, Governor Perdue: From Dumb Luck to Lame Duck, concluded, “I submit that after a dismal year of ineffective leadership, as judged by chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … as judged by one major legislative failure after another … retiring after this term is her only choice. She is a lame duck.”
What follows is that report in its entirety, so that you can see that the handwriting has been on the wall for a long time:
Governor Perdue: from Dumb Luck to Lame Duck; Slim Odds of Winning a Second term as Governor of North Carolina
Post: July 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 18
“What if I decide instead to spend my last two years doing what I think is right. Veto any bill I don’t like. Go out as a principled fighter and leader, not just another politician. Go out on my own terms, unlike most politicians. Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life.” Imaginary musings of Gov. Perdue as envisioned by Democrat consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, March 3, 2011
This Week’s Veto Overrides Signal the Inevitable Decision for Governor Perdue
With all due respect, if Governor Beverly Perdue cannot stop the veto overrides of the budget and some the most significant pieces of reform legislation in decades … including Regulatory Reform, Medical Malpractice Reform, Medicaid/Health Choice Provider Requirement, and today’s Abortion reform … then she needs to seriously reconsider a run for a second term.
Gary Pearce, one of North Carolina’s most successful Democratic campaign consultants and author of the biography of Jim Hunt, ruminated in his blog in March that Perdue just may be looking at her situation and thinking that if she didn’t run she could do as she pleased, veto any bill she didn’t like, and go out on her own terms. “Then go make a lot of money and enjoy life,” surmised Pearce. He ended his blog with, “That’s not a bad life choice.”
I submit that after a dismal year of ineffective leadership, as judged by chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … as judged by one major legislative failure after another … retiring after this term is her only choice. She is a lame duck.
Should Perdue Run? Numbers Say “No” Despite Record of 10 Wins and “1 Loss”
Governor Beverly Perdue, a Craven County Democrat, is one of the most successful campaigners in North Carolina history. She has won every race “except one,” including two terms in the N.C. House, five terms in the N.C. Senate, two statewide bids for Lt. Governor, and her 2008 race against Treasurer Richard Moore for the Democratic Party nominee for governor.
In 2008, Perdue failed to win the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory, but was handed the keys to the mansion anyway thanks to historic voter registration and turnout by the Obama campaign for President. Dumb luck. No President Obama; no Governor Perdue.
- Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America. Dumb luck.
- In a mid-July 2011 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 34% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 49% disapproved.
- PPP poll: “Independents disapproved by a wide margin.” Only 31% of NC’s Independent voters approve of Perdue’s performance as governor; 57% disapprove.
- PPP poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP poll: “McCrory’s advantage is built on a massive lead among Independents,” (57% to only 28% for Perdue).
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed this week with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reporting raising a little over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
A strong incumbent Governor seeking a second term would have raised considerably more than $1.3 million by now … and certainly should have raised a lot more than the challenger.
Forecast: Obama Wins White House in 2012 Without NC; Perdue Loses.
It’s very important to remember that Obama won North Carolina by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million. North Carolina was Obama’s closest win despite a weak Republican opponent and a year-long commitment of millions of dollars to a ground game second to none in state history … as measured by new registrations of African Americans, young voters and a record voter turnout.
The Obama campaign opened 47 headquarters in North Carolina and hired over 400 paid staff. These young professionals were responsible for a record early voting total of 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004), more voters than on Election Day. Seven out of 10 of the early voters were either Democrats (51%) or Unaffiliated (19%). African Americans comprised 28% of early voters, as compared to only 19% in 2004.
Yet despite Obama’s investment yielding hundreds of thousands of new registered Democrats and millions of early voters in 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory by only 145,021 votes out of 4.27 million. It was just dumb luck.
Even if the economy begins to recover, Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina. If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race; especially as a lame duck.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26 “And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome
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“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama
Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26
“And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
Gov. Chris Christie, R-New Jersey, Meet the Press, June 26, 2011
Less than Half of Tea Party Supporters Say “Stick to Beliefs”
Fiscal conservatives who believe that it’s more important for our leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs even if little gets done” than it is to “Compromise in order to get things done” will be happy to know that almost half of all Tea Party supporters agree, according to an new Gallup survey released yesterday.
Ummmmmm, only half?
A Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, shows that 45% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important for leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs” even if little gets done. A surprising 31% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important to “Compromise” in order to get things done.
Here is the Gallup question:
“Is it more important for political leaders in Washington to compromise in order to get things done or is it more important to stick to their beliefs even if little gets done.”
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
Independents are 2-to-1 “Compromise” over “Stick to Beliefs;” Problematic for Current Slate of GOP Presidential Contenders
The most ominous message for uncompromising fiscal conservatives in the new Gallup survey is that by almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
The Tea Party has an inordinate amount of influence over the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination process. There is no greater evidence of that point than the fact that the entire GOP presidential slate agreed that they would say “no” to a deficit/debt reduction deal of $10 in spending cuts to $1 in increased revenue.
On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, the moderator at the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over tax increases.
BRET BAIER: Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?
BAIER: OK. Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands. They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to 1 deal, they would walk away from.”
When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”
NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Unique Strength is in Dealing with Adversaries: “Principled Outcome Where People are Also Compromising.”
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was a guest on Meet the Press on June 26, 2011 (Transcript here).
The debt ceiling debate was stalled. The president was finally stepping into the negotiations. The American public was divided according to an AP poll: 41% opposed to raising the debt ceiling; 38% favored raising the debt ceiling.
David Gregory, host of Meet the Press, opened the show with a taped interview with Gov. Christie after noting that Christie was coming off a big budget victory where the Democratic-controlled New Jersey State Assembly passed a landmark cost-cutting budget that would save the state $120 billion over the next 30 years.
MR. GREGORY: “The battle, of course, [here in Washington] is between spending and taxes. What’s the way out of this mess here?
GOV. CHRISTIE: “The first thing is that the president had to get involved personally. And what I found in New Jersey, in our experience in dealing with what you just talked about, was there is no substitute for the three leaders in the room having to look at each other and having to hash this out. And everybody’s got to put skin in the game, David. I mean, I gave on things that I wanted. Obviously, the Senate–Democratic Senate president in my state, and the Democratic speaker gave on things they wanted, and we came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles. And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the appeal of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to the GOP and the best argument for why he can defeat President Obama in 2012.
Throughout all of my reporting on the presidential race I have maintained that President Obama would defeat the current slate of contenders … in great part because they would not compromise on a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over new taxes.
I have also said repeatedly that if NJ Gov. Chris Christie is the nominee, all bets are off.
The new Gallup study showing that Americas prefer that our leaders in Washington “Compromise” in order to get things done rather than “Stick to Beliefs” even if little gets done explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s appeal to the GOP … and why he can defeat President Barack Obama.
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the leadership Americans are looking for … and deserve.
– END –
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John N. Davis, Editor
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No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25 “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.” U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the
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No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25
“What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the 48 GOP caucus members for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday.
No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams
The headline above the fold in today’s News and Observer is, “Obama: no shortcut to peace.” The quote was from President Obama’s speech yesterday to the United Nations in which he urged Israel and Palestine to settle their differences without relying on UN action.
On the economic front, he could have added, “and there is no shortcut to prosperity.”
A few years ago, I drove my daughter and her friend to New York City for a week of theater and shopping. She had dreamed of such a week for a long time and had saved over $1000.
It worked out quite well for me. After all, for some time I had wanted to get away to work on a book I had dreamed of writing. This was the perfect opportunity. The girls would leave the room mid-morning and spend the entire day in the city and not come back to the hotel room except to dress for an evening performance. I would be free to write all day the entire week.
What I did not anticipate was a near-fatal case of writers block.
Despite numerous attempts to establish momentum, I ended the first day with very little accomplished. That was followed by a second day of struggling to be productive … although I ended the day with a glimmer of hope after a couple of hours of research at New York City’s Mid-Manhattan Public Library.
Surely the third day would be a breakthrough of productivity. Not so. As noontime rolled around, I was no farther along than when I started the day. Frustrated, I decided to take a walk.
After a couple of blocks of aimless wandering, I noticed a crowd of people walking into St. Patrick’s Cathedral on 5th Avenue for the noon mass. Not having any better idea of what to do with my time, I decided to join them. Maybe prayer and meditation would jump-start my writing.
Voila! I found the remedy to my chronic writers block that day … in the homily. The title of the homily was, “There are no shortcuts to your dreams.”
I went straight back to the room and went to work. I ended up having a very productive week.
U.S. House Speaker Boehner Chastises Tea Party Republicans
We should all thank the Tea Party for forcing a nation in economic denial to see the nation-destroying consequences of unlimited sacred cow budgeting and unchecked spending and borrowing.
However, if the Tea Party does not loosen up on opportunities like a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases, insisting on no new taxes, then it will be the Democrats who will be thanking the Tea Party for returning them to state and federal legislative majorities.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said as much today when he chastised the 48 members of the GOP caucus for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
There are no shortcuts to:
- Adjusting to the global economic correction: a monumental event likely requiring a painfully interminable period of austerity;
- Economic growth or job creation: an exercise requiring cautious and deliberate investments by the private sector in expansion that eventually will begin to add jobs;
- Getting our budget under control: an exercise requiring both painful spending cuts and program consolidation/elimination and tax reform … including new revenue.
Saying no to taxes is a shortcut.
Updated Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, GOP Presidential Nominee, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Governor and the likely North Carolina Senate and House majorities. Here are select updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 9/22: Obama will win a second term (without NC)
- Obama’s mid-40s job approval (43.6% Real Clear Politics average) at the lowest point of his administration, amidst worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, argues for a near-50% job approval next fall with any measure of sustained growth in jobs/economy. He wins at 50%.
- Obama will run against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress whose job approval hovers around 15% (Congressional job approval 13.5% Real Clear Politics average)
- Everyone in the current GOP presidential field has said “no” to a 10-to-1 spending over taxes deal and are losing credibility among most voters because their uncompromising stand.
- GALLUP released a survey September 20 in which:
- 70% of Americans favor “increasing taxes on some corporations by eliminating certain tax deductions,” including 53% of Republicans/Leaning Republican.
- 66% favor “increasing income taxes on individuals earning at least $200,000 (families $250,000),” including 41% of Republicans/Leaning Republicans.
- Over half of Republicans/Leaning Republicans favor 4 of the 6 proposals in Obama’s American Jobs Act including 84% who support “providing tax cuts for small businesses, including incentives to hire workers,” 56% who support “providing additional funds to hire teachers, police officers, and firefighters,” and 50% who support “providing additional funds for public works projects, including making repairs to more than 30,000 schools.”
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, reaffirmed in a Fox News Sunday interview on July 10, 2011, that “the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term President.”
The greatest political trap that Republicans could find themselves in is for voters to conclude that their refusal to compromise on the American Jobs Act is driven by their #1 priority, to make Obama a one-term president.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 9/22: Mitt Romney likely GOP nominee
- Rick Perry will collapse under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush.
- If Perry wins the nomination, most Americans will likely see him as a 3rd Bush term (Bush’s job approval was 25% in 2008), weakening his chances in a General Election.
- Romney will win out of the current field because he will be the last one standing after the others self-destruct. Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Republican and Tea Party support … and he has yet to generate much enthusiasm among right-wing conservatives.
- Recent polls show 51% of Republicans would prefer someone other than the current slate.
- NJ Governor Christ Christie can defeat Obama. Filing/running required.
U.S. Senate UPDATE 9/22: Republicans will win the U.S. Senate majority
- Currently 51/47 Democrat majority w/2 Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Big GOP Advantage: Of 33 US Senate seats up for grabs, 21 are currently held by Democrats and 2 held by Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Only 10 Republican seats are up for grabs in 2012, most deemed safe.
- GOP needs to win 4 of the 21 Democratic seats for majority (if they hold what they have).
U.S. House UPDATE 9/22: Republicans risk losing U.S. House majority
Republicans are clearly at risk of losing the majority in the US House of Representatives, as uncompromising Tea Party zealots will alienate independents as well as defeat/weaken GOP incumbents, rendering them vulnerable to moderate Democrats in swing districts.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, chided the 48 Republicans in his caucus this morning for rejecting the stopgap government funding bill on Wednesday, causing the bill to fail. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen,” Boehner told reporters today.
The uncompromising actions of the Tea Party Republicans in the U.S. House have led to fears of a government shutdown reminiscent of the one under former Speaker Newt Gingrich, an event that led to the loss of confidence in Republicans … and the loss of the majority in Congress to the Democrats.
U.S. House Republicans cannot lose more confidence in their ability to lead. There’s none left.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012 Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3 NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3
NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. Today is Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, including U.S. President, Congress, NC Governor and Legislature.
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
FORECAST – AGAINST THE CURRENT GOP FIELD, OBAMA WILL WIN A SECOND TERM – WITHOUT THE HELP OF NORTH CAROLINA:
If you go to the Real Clear Politics website, you can see a list of all polls conducted during the month of August. There were 20 polls that pitted Obama against either a generic GOP contender or one of the announced candidates for the Republican nomination.
Obama’s average in the 20 match-ups was 44.8% to 42.6% for the Republican. If he is holding his own despite his lousy job approval numbers and the continued dire economic circumstances facing the nation, then he is well on his way for reelection. (By the way, I did not include the 3 match-ups between Obama and Palin; he trounced her by 20+ points.)
Today, Labor Day, Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
It’s Jobs, Spending, Global Economic Correction … and a Leadership Crisis
Americans want so desperately to see encouraging signs of economic recovery that any positive news sustained over several months will have an exponentially positive impact on President Obama’s reelection potential.
The potential for sustained economic improvement grows daily as all political leaders realize that their days are numbered because voters are in a foul mood and want results now.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the jobs crisis.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the economic crisis caused by unsustainable federal budgeting.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the crisis caused by the global economic correction.
Voters have determined that America has a political leadership crisis equal in magnitude as the country’s economic crisis. All incumbents are vulnerable, especially members of Congress.
Remember, today’s Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
Voters are much more likely to vent their frustration at Congress than the President.
FORECAST – MITT ROMNEY WILL BE THE GOP NOMINEE:
After the dust settles at the Republican National Convention in 2012, there is a greater likelihood that Romney will be the nominee, with a Tea Party running mate to galvanize the social and economic right.
Republicans are hierarchical, and Romney has earned the right to assume the mantle.
The current front runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, will self-destruct trying to defend his loose-cannon comments like those in his new book, “Fed Up!” Example: Social Security is a “violent” attack on core American values.
The book is an opposition research professional’s mother lode. “I wouldn’t have written that book if I was going to run for the presidency of the United States,” Perry said in an interview.
Perry, although a former Democrat who served as Al Gore’s state campaign chairman during the 1988 Presidential primaries, is a bona fide fiscal conservative who switched to the GOP in 1989.
However, Perry must overcome these two major obstacles:
- His trigger happy mouth has produced enough attack campaign fodder to fill the Astrodome.
- His Texas swagger and bravado are too reminiscent of George W. Bush, the President who voters blame more for the nation’s economic woes than the current President. There is no way the voters are going to vote for a third term for George W. Bush.
According to a September 1, 2011 Public Policy Polling release, “GOP voters like Perry better than Romney. But independents are a lot more willing to vote for Romney than Perry.”
Ultimately, Perry will scare off Independents.
The only other Republican who could defeat Romney (and Obama for that matter) says he’s not interested: NJ Gov. Chris Christie. Keep an eye on Christie. If he gets in, everything changes.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL OUTRIGHT LOSE/AT LEAST NEARLY LOSE THE US HOUSE:
The US House GOP leaders have wiped out the respect most American votes had for their potential to offer strong, problem-solving leadership. When US House Speaker Boehner caved in to Rep. Eric Cantor, R-VA and the other caucus Tea Partiers over the debt ceiling debate, his stock plummeted … along with the entire caucus.
Uncompromising ideologues in the US House GOP Caucus will continue to divide and conqueror the caucus, giving moderate Democrats (I repeat for emphasis, “moderate Democrats”) an opportunity to win the toss-up races and get within range of a small majority.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN US SENATE MAJORITY:
The US Senate Republicans are likely to win the majority because of the way the deck is stacked in 2012. Of the 33 US Senate races up for grabs, 23 are currently held be Democrats. The Senate is currently a 51/47 Democratic majority, with 2 Independents who regularly caucus with the Democrats. That slim majority is too close to hold while defending 23 seats held by Democrats.
Retiring senators include 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans. If you add the 6 seats open due to retiring Democrats to the 17 additional incumbent Democrats up for reelection, you can see the big problem that Democrats face.
Only 8 Republicans are up for reelection in 2012.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN NC HOUSE & SENATE:
North Carolina House and Senate Republicans are on track for a long period of sustained majority party status.
If the state Senate and House maps pass judicial scrutiny, then in a good Republican year they will win veto-proof super majorities in both chambers. In a bad Republican year they will maintain the majority.
If you add the maps to the money advantage, you can readily see the long-term prospects for GOP majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.
The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation put out an excellent study this week showing that Republican Senators had outraised the Senate Democrats 10-to-1 in the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections. The NC House Republicans have out-raised their loyal opponents by a 3-to-1 margin.
FORECAST – REPUBLICAN PAT McCRORY WILL WIN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE:
Governor Perdue has had a dismal couple of years struggling to establish her effectiveness as the leader of the 10th largest state in America. Judging by her chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … and the five veto overrides … she has yet to convince anyone beyond her base that she deserves a second term.
In 2008, Perdue won the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory only because of the historic voter registration and turnout of Democrats by the Obama 2012 Campaign for President. However, Obama is not likely to invest in a long-shot like North Carolina due to the loss of the surprise advantage (no one took his potential in NC seriously in 2008), and financial restraints.
Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory’s can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
- In an August 17 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 37% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 48% disapproved.
- PPP August 17 poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP August 17 poll: “The Governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats, a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed in July with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reported raising just over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
Even if the economy begins to recover, and Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race.
Well, there you have it. The John Davis Political Report Labor Day Forecasts.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/JDPR-MARCH-30-2011-Ferraro.mp3|titles=JDPR MARCH 30 2011 Ferraro] “Do not put such unlimited powers into the hands of the Husbands. Remember all men would be tyrants if they could. If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which
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| [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/JDPR-MARCH-30-2011-Ferraro.mp3|titles=JDPR MARCH 30 2011 Ferraro] |
From a letter written by Abigail Adams to her husband, John, who was attending the Continental Congress, March 31, 1776“Do not put such unlimited powers into the hands of the Husbands. Remember all men would be tyrants if they could. If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which we have no voice, or Representation.”
We know better than to repeal our Masculine systems
When Abigail Adams threatened in her March 31, 1776 letter to her husband, John, that women would “foment a Rebellion” if they were not given a say in the new laws of the land, he wrote in reply, “We know better than to repeal our Masculine systems.”
The exchange between Abigail and John Adams amplifies the most important conclusion in this report: women were not given equal rights by men, they had to seize them.
March is National Women’s History Month. The 2011 theme is, “Our History is Our Strength.” President Obama issued a proclamation in which he stated that this is the month during which, “we reflect on the extraordinary accomplishments of women and honor their role in shaping the course of our Nation’s history.”
Likewise, Gov. Beverly Perdue, North Carolina’s first woman governor, formally announced Women’s History Month with a proclamation that included this bit of history: “WHEREAS, in 1774, fifty-one women organized the Edenton Tea Party, one of the earliest political acts taken by North Carolina women in protest of the taxation of the colonies without representation within the British government.”
This report is written in honor of Women’s History Month and on the occasion of the death of Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman Vice Presidential candidate of a major political party in American history (Mondale/Ferraro defeated in 1984 by Reagan/Bush). Although she did not live to realize her dream of attending “the inauguration of first woman president of the United States,” surely she must have been made proud a thousand times over as women, inspired in part by her example, seized opportunities to lead throughout every walk of life.
Women Governors and State Executive Elective Offices
North Carolina Leads the South with Women Elected to State Executive Offices
State Executive Elective Offices: In 2011, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers, women hold 69 of the nation’s 317 state executive elective offices (38 Democrats, 30 Republicans, and one independent) … including six governorships.
Gov. Beverly Perdue, North Carolina’s first women governor, chairs the Council of State, comprised of 9 statewide executive elective offices. Women hold 5 of the 9 positions, including Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Commissioner of Labor Cherie Berry, Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson, State Treasurer Janet Cowell and State Auditor Beth Wood.
In addition to Gov. Perdue here in North Carolina, Oklahoma has a Democrat woman governor. There are four Republican women serving as governor, including Arizona, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and New Mexico.
- Ella Grasso (D-CT) was the first woman governor elected in her own right (1974)
- 34 women have served as governor in 26 states (19 Democrats, 15 Republicans)
- All but 3 women governors have been elected since Ferraro’s 1984 VP race[1]
- NC leads the South in 2011 with 6 women elected to state executive offices (5D, 1R)
- Women currently serving in state executive elective offices in Southern states: AL 5, OK 3, FL 2, TX 2, KY 2, AR 1, SC 1
- GA, VA, TN, LA and MS have “0” women serving in state executive elective offices
North Carolina’s Battle of the Sexes since 2000: Women 23, Men 8
In 1996, Elaine Marshall, a Democrat from Lillington, became North Carolina’s first woman elected to a statewide executive office. Marshall out-raced her GOP opponent, “The King” of NASCAR, Richard Petty, by several car lengths.
Since November 2000, there have been 31 statewide general election races in North Carolina that pitted a man against a woman, including state judiciary offices, state executive offices, and federal statewide offices. Women have won 23 of those 31 races, including two women elected to the U.S. Senate, Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, and Kay Hagan, a Democrat.
As a result of those 23 statewide wins, women have the majority of the Council of State and the North Carolina Supreme Court. The seven-member court includes Chief Justice Sarah Parker, Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (NC’s first African American woman on the court), Justice Robin Hudson and Justice Barbara Jackson.
The North Carolina Court of Appeals had an 8/7 female majority until Gov. Perdue appointed Judge Cressie Thigpen in January to fill the unexpired term of Judge Barbara Jackson, shifting the Court of Appeals to 8/7 male judges.
A toilet, not a urinal, in the judge’s chambers … or go to jail!
Susie Sharp was the first woman to serve on the North Carolina Supreme Court. She was appointed in 1962 by Democratic Gov. Terry Sanford to fill an unexpired term. Rhoda Billings was the first Republican woman on the Supreme Court, appointed by GOP Gov. Jim Martin. In 1986, Justice Billings was appointed Chief Justice, the first Republican woman.
In 1974, Sharp became the first female in the U.S. to be elected Chief Justice of a state Supreme Court, with a landslide 74% of the vote. However, in the early days of her distinguished career, while serving as the state’s first woman Superior Court Judge, she was not so well received.
On the occasion of the unveiling of Sharp’s portrait at the Supreme Court in 1996, Franklin Freeman, a former Associate Justice, gave the formal address in which he told the story of her confrontation with Burke County commissioners over the matter of the need for a toilet in the judge’s chambers.
“The Burke County commissioners refused, upon learning of her assignment to their county, to modify the only bathroom facilities in the judge’s chambers; a sink and a urinal that hung on the wall. Judge Sharp opened court on Monday morning at 10:00 a.m. and ordered the sheriff to “invite” the county commissioners over to the courthouse. By 11:00, the courthouse was aflutter with the scurrying about of plumbers, carpenters, and electricians, while the county commissioners narrowly avoided a few nights repose in the county jail.”
Restated for emphasis: women were not given equal rights by men, they had to seize them.
Here are the 31 statewide races in North Carolina since election year 2000 that pitted a woman candidate against a man:
Election Year 2000
Secretary of State
Elaine Marshall (D) defeated Harris Blake (R)
Commissioner of Labor
Cherie Berry (R) defeated Doug Berger (D)
Commissioner of Agriculture
Meg Phipps (D) defeated Steve Troxler (R)
Court of Appeals
Robin Hudson (D) defeated Paul Stam (R)
John Martin (D) defeated Wendy Enochs (R)
Election Year 2002
U.S. Senate
Elizabeth Dole (R) defeated Erskine Bowles (D)
Court of Appeals
Martha Geer (D) defeated Bill Constangy (R)
Sanford Steelman (R) defeated Loretta Biggs (D)
Election Year 2004
Lt. Governor
Beverly Perdue (D) defeated Jim Snyder (R)
Superintendent of Public Instruction
June Atkinson (D) defeated Bill Fletcher (R)
Commissioner of Labor
Cherie Berry(R) defeated Wayne Goodwin (D)
Supreme Court
Sarah Parker (D) defeated John Tyson (R)
Court of Appeals
Linda McGee (D) defeated Bill Parker (R)
Barbara Jackson (R) defeated Alan Thornburg (D)
Election Year 2006
Supreme Court
Sarah Parker (D) defeated Rusty Duke (R)
Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D) defeated Eric Levinson (R)
Mark Martin (R) defeated Rachel Lea Hunter (D)
Election Year 2008
President
Obama/Biden (D) defeated McCain/Palin (R)
Governor
Beverly Perdue (D) defeated Pat McCrory (R)
Secretary of State
Elaine Marshall (D) defeated Jack Sawyer (R)
Auditor
Beth Wood (D) defeated Les Merritt (R)
Treasurer
Janet Cowell (D) defeated Bill Daughtridge (R)
Superintendent of Public Instruction
June Atkinson (D) defeated Richard Morgan (R)
Supreme Court Justice
Justice Robert Edmunds (R) defeated Suzanne Reynolds (D)
Court of Appeals Judge
Judge Linda Stephens (D) defeated Dan Barrett (R)
Cheri Beasley (D) defeated Doug McCullough (R)
Sam Ervin IV (D) defeated Kristen Ruth (D)
Judge Jim Wynn (D) defeated Jewel Ann Farlow (R)
Election Year 2010
United States Senate
Sen. Richard Burr (R) defeated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D)
Supreme Court Justice
Judge Barbara Jackson (R) defeated Judge Bob Hunter (D)
Court of Appeals Judge
Judge Martha Geer (D) defeated Dean Poirier (R)
Ferraro’s Dream: the inauguration of the first woman US President
When Abigail Adams wrote to her husband on March 31, 1776, “If particular care and attention is not paid to the Ladies, we are determined to foment a Rebellion, and will not hold ourselves bound by any laws in which we have no voice, or Representation,” little did she know that the “Rebellion” would take two centuries.
John Adams would follow George Washington as the nation’s chief executive, elected President of the United States in 1796. It would be exactly 200 years later, 1996, before the first woman would serve in an executive role as important as Secretary of State of the United States … the highest-ranking cabinet secretary in line of succession in the event of the death or incapacity of the president. Her name was Madeleine Korbel Albright.
Madeleine Albright was born in Prague, the daughter of a Czech diplomat. She was appointed Secretary of State in 1996 by President Bill Clinton, becoming the 64th US Secretary of State. Since Albright, two women have been appointed Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, appointed by Republican President G.W. Bush in 2005, and the current US Secretary of State, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton, appointed by Democratic President Barack Obama in 2009.
Although Geraldine Ferraro died last week before realizing her dream of attending “the inauguration of first woman president of the United States,” surely she took great pride in just how close Hillary Clinton came to winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, and in seeing another woman run on a major party presidential ticket with the selection of Sarah Palin by GOP presidential nominee John McCain.
She didn’t live to see a woman president, but she lived to see tens of thousands of women elected to governmental service and ascend to the highest positions of respect and authority in public and private life; she lived to see tens of millions of women seize their equal rights and opportunities.
One day these awe inspiring words will be spoken, and when they are, we will remember Geraldine Ferraro: “Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States and Mister ….”
[1] Refers to women elected in their own right.
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Part IV: Liability 9 “The Toyota affair emphasizes some basic points of management. First, any company, no matter how large and how famous for its merits, can stumble into grave error. Second, damaged pride and nervous fear make it difficult to correct the error in good time. Third, management decisions should normally never be taken
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Part IV: Liability 9
“The Toyota affair emphasizes some basic points of management. First, any company, no matter how large and how famous for its merits, can stumble into grave error. Second, damaged pride and nervous fear make it difficult to correct the error in good time. Third, management decisions should normally never be taken on the basis of profit forecasts alone.” Edward de Bono & Robert Heller, The Toyota disaster – and what we can learn from it[i]
This is Part IV in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of
sloppy standards and corrupt leaders. Parts I, II, and III can be found at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
The 10 premises in the series, all political liabilities, lead to the following conclusion: Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.
The following paragraph is restated from the last report for emphasis: What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
In Parts I, II and III of the series, I wrote about liabilities including:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
Here is number nine:
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
Those who make the laws should abide by them. Those who would be leaders should lead by example. These two moral imperatives have been overshadowed in the North Carolina Democratic Party by their #1 moral imperative: Partisan power at all costs.
North Carolina Democrats offer protection for their errant leaders behind a wall of silence. If one among them breaks the law (quid pro quo deals, Cannonsgate, quid pro quo deals, illegal flights, quid pro quo deals, tax evasion, and more quid pro quo deals), or compromises principles and values (Law Enforcement Associates’ no-bid contract, university job plus 88% salary increase for Gov’s wife, a judicial district for your DA buddy who lost his election, using the “N” word in front of your six-year-old child, $27,012 for limo services in France), the first sense of moral obligation for North Carolina Democrats is to keep quiet and bide their time.
Keep Your Mouth Shut Long Enough, and the Problem will Go Away
Toyota handled its problems with defective accelerator pedals on millions of its vehicles the same way North Carolina Democrats have handled their problems with defective leaders: they stonewalled the public. “They did try to hide it — that’s what we accused them of — and they’ve agreed to that,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told the Associated Press, upon announcing the largest fine in department history in April of this year. Toyota put profit over principle. They knew parts were defective and kept it under wraps. If it were not for whistleblowers forcing exposure, people would still be dying in runaway Toyota automobiles.
Democrats know that they can use their unchecked power to muscle everyone with a legislative agenda to be a stone in their protective wall of silence. From lobbyists and governmental agency heads, to members of boards and commissions, education officials … even some news reporters; all are aware that you better protect the leadership at all costs or you don’t get access.
No access means no money, no new buildings, no inside scoop, no road contracts … no nothing.
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Part I: Liabilities 1 – 4 NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans. Toyota Motor Company has lost market share because of worldwide recalls of millions of its cars due to management mistakes
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Part I: Liabilities 1 – 4
NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans.
Toyota Motor Company has lost market share because of worldwide recalls of millions of its cars due to management mistakes that led to frightening problems like mysterious acceleration, unreliable breaks and rollovers.[i] Meanwhile, Ford Motor Company just posted a $2.1 billion first quarter profit and is touting the best market share gain since 1977. “It benefited from Toyota’s safety recalls of millions of vehicles,” said Kelley Blue Book, “Ford was one of the top brands considered by Toyota owners who were shopping for a new car.”[ii]
Toyota’s brand is so damaged by sloppy standards that it must now offer promotional gimmicks like 0% loans and $2,000 rebates to lure customers. Likewise, the brand of the North Carolina Democrat Party is so tarnished by a decade of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders that the only way it has kept Republicans from taking over state government is by outspending them 3-to-1 on incentives and political promotional gimmicks.
Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win; that is what is happening in this state.
During the next few weeks I will be writing about the Top 10 political liabilities that have cost Democrats market share and turned the North Carolina Democratic Party into the Toyota Motor Company of state politics. Here are the first four:
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