If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
“It turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
NY Times, 3/26/2013, regarding Pres. Obama’s new Organizing for Action “Social Welfare” organization
March 27, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 8 11:13 pm
It’s time we put principle aside and do what’s right!
On June 19, 2008, Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama created a firestorm among liberal campaign finance reformers by breaking his pledge to limit his campaign spending to public funds. Obama chose to put the practical value of a campaign spending advantage over personal principle. He knew that in order to win, he had to Obey the Golden Rule of Politics: Those with the most gold rule.
Obama’s decision to put principal aside freed him to raise an unlimited amount of money. Republican nominee John McCain opted to shackle himself to public financing. When the final campaign spending totals were tallied, the FEC reported that Obama had raised $745 million to McCain’s $368 million.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans.
David Plouffe, campaign manager for President Obama’s 2008 victory, in writing about the decision to opt out of public financing in his book The Audacity to Win, said, “Sacrificing this added cash would mean we either had to pare our list of target battlegrounds or run less rigorous campaigns in each.”
One of those target battlegrounds was North Carolina. If Obama had put principle over money and opted out of public financing in 2008, he would not have carried North Carolina and Beverly Purdue would not have been governor.
North Carolina was Obama’s closest win (14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast). Perdue’s win was the closest governors race in the U.S., despite her 2-to-1 spending advantage over McCrory ($14.9 million to his $6.7 million) and despite a historic Democratic turnout thanks to Obama’s state organization.
“Staying in the federal system would seriously impede our ability to mount that kind of campaign that left no stone unturned,” wrote Plouffe, “I thought if we opted out of the system, we would also enjoy a significant financial advantage over McCain.” He was right.
In 2008, the Obama campaign raised $782 million (McCain $368 million), employed 6,000 staffers who managed 13 million volunteers. In September alone, Obama raised $100 million online. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,” said Plouffe.
When it comes to principle versus money in politics, ignore the protests of the press and the outrage of the campaign finance reformers; put principle aside and do what’s right: raise money.
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Today, I am adding Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule.”
NC Republicans are only half-way to financial dominance; President Obama points the way to the other half
Thanks to excellent research and analysis of 2012 campaign finances by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, we can now say for certain that North Carolina Republicans have learned well from Democrats and are following their precedent in valuing political financial dominance.
- Republican Senate candidates raised about $11.3 million to only $3.7 million for Democratic Senate candidates, a 3-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 33 to 17 Senate majority.
- Republican House candidates raised $12.9 million to $5.3 million for the Democrats, a 2-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 77 to 43 House majority.
- Republican Gov. Pat McCrory raised $11.2 million to $4.3 million for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton, a 2012 advantage that led to a 55% to 43% victory.
Granted, reports like these make it clear that North Carolina Republicans are well on their way to establishing political financial dominance. However, they are only halfway there. The other half of political financial dominance is the establishment of 501 (c) (4) “social welfare” nonprofit groups that may raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to advance their legislative agenda.
Once again, Republicans have an excellent model thanks to President Obama.
Obama’s campaign organization, Organizing for America, has morphed into a new advocacy machine called Organizing for Action. OFA is run by former campaign operatives, like Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, and pledges to “support the legislative agenda we voted on, train the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders, and organize around local issues in our communities.”
Sound like something of political value to North Carolina Republicans? Keeping your political organization fine-tuned as an IRS approved “social welfare” organization? Training the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders? Unlimited shadow funding?
Raise $2 million and you can be on Obama’s board
On Tuesday, March 26, 2013, The New York Times carried a story about Organizing for Action stating, “In addition to the previously reported “board of trustees” whose members are expected to raise at least $500,000, it turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
What are they going to do with all of that money?
According to Organizing for Action’s statement of purpose, they are established to:
- “Support President Obama in achieving enactment of his national agenda.”
- Form grassroots level chapters that will also work for “progressive change on a range of issues at the state and local level.”
- All while operating as a “social welfare” organization” under IRS Code 501(c)(4).
Fred Wertheimer, head of Democracy 21 and a leading national voice for campaign finance reform, described the OFA as “an unprecedented entity that allows individual donors and bundlers to provide unlimited amounts of money to an organization functioning as an arm of the Obama presidency.”
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles. Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm First Generation of Leaders
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Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm
First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898
The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.
Collapsed. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010. Lost the state Senate. Lost the state House of Representatives. First time since 1898.
No political warfare generals. The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012. Including President Obama.
Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term. Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008. Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898. A lame duck.
In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.
And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats. McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.
In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand. Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand. McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall. Dalton: $2.6 million.
The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.
The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:
NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand. This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party. Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.
North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Fact: Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.
Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift
According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans. That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans. There’s more.
At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans. That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.
For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.
Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters. Obama volunteers.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/JDavis-LateBreakingTrends081810.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends – August 18, 2010] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans President Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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Advantage RepublicansPresident Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing the country. Gallup, 8/17/2010
Post: August 18, 2010, by John Davis
NEW TRACKING CHARTS: If you take a look at the bottom of today’s Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts, you will see that I have added a graph at the bottom of the page. This graph will be used to plot the partisan political advantage trend line all the way from this week to Election Day. After two election cycles with the momentum favoring Democrats, the numbers now show a solid momentum advantage for Republicans leading up to the all-important Labor Day kick-off of the General Election season.
Republican state Senate candidates, with an 8-point momentum advantage, fair slightly better than their state House counterparts because the Senate GOP Caucus has been more successful in raising early money. Mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections show a virtual dead-heat in the total Cash-on-Hand of all Senate Republican and Democratic candidates. Democrats reported $2.5 million Cash-on-Hand; Republicans reported $2.4 million. On the House side, Democrats reported $3.3 million Cash-on-Hand; Republicans reported $1.3 million. The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation has done an excellent summary of the mid-year finance reporting by legislative candidates.[i] You can review it on their website: www.ncfef.org.
For many election cycles, the three-to-one … four-to-one … five-to-one disparities in campaign funding has helped Democrats win the close races … races that ultimately decided the majority in the state Senate and House. Here are a couple of good examples from 2008:
- Sen. Julia Bozeman, a New Hanover County Democrat, spent $871,539 to win 52% of the vote against her GOP challenger who spent only $250,075 … in a Democratic-friendly year that saw record-breaking new registrations and turnout for Democrats. The Democratic Party gave Bozeman $555,475. The Republican Party contributed only $77,500 to their candidate. This year is a Republican friendly year. The seat, once held by GOP Sen. Patrick Ballantine, is open … meaning all advantages of incumbency are lost … and the money is even. Civitas gives this district a GOP-friendly R+3 on it’s NC Partisan Index.[ii]
- Sen. Toni Foriest, an Alamance County Democrat, spent $647,293 to win 52% of the vote against his GOP challenger who spent only $173,152 … in a Democratic friendly year that saw record-breaking new registrations and turnout for Democrats. This is a Republican friendly year, the money is even, and the seat was held by GOP Sen. Hugh Webster for six terms. Civitas gives this district and R+3 on it’s NC Partisan Index
So, as you can see, this election year things are quite different. No one has ever seen Senate Republicans even with Democrats in any fundraising category. And, it has been more than a decade since House Republicans were as well organized and poised to exploit their momentum advantage and close the funding gap. Add the fact that Republicans are working together to defeat Democrats rather than each other, and you can readily see that something is quite different this year in the politics of the Ole North State. Perhaps, just perhaps, we are seeing the makings of a powerful Republican political war machine that will rival the national model war machine build by North Carolina Democrats.
Yesterday, the GOP momentum advantage increased with the release of new polling information from the Gallup organization. Here are the highlights:
- Generic Congressional Ballot Favors GOP: “GOP shows strongest positioning yet in 2010 votes cast,” reads the headline of Gallup’s latest release of congressional generic ballot results. The national survey of registered voters asked: If the election for congress were held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican? Republicans, who were favored by only 43% in mid July, now enjoy a 50% to 43% advantage among US registered voters.
- Obama’s Job Approval at Historic Low: President Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing the country
- Party ID Tied: Another trend that does not bode well for Democrats is the loss of advantage with the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats rather than Republicans. In January, Democrats had a 45% to 40% advantage. Today, both parties are tied with 42% each.
- Independent Voters Trending Republican: One of the most startling findings by Gallup thus far in August is that Independent voters in the country are far more inclined to vote for Republicans for Congress this year than for Democrats. Republicans received a 47% thumbs up; Democrats only 34%. Thirteen points is a major disparity.
- Voter Enthusiasm Trending Republican: But perhaps the most startling finding by Gallup deals with the enthusiasm among the Republicans and Democrats about voting this fall. Among Republicans, 44% say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall. Among Democrats, a dismal 28% say they are “very enthusiastic.”
So, there you have it, a Republican-friendly fall in the making based in the Late Breaking Trends … found only in the John Davis Political Report. Remember, take a look at the bottom of today’s Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts so that you can see the new graph for tracking how the partisan political advantage changes between now and Election Day.
Thanks for reading … and listening … to the John Davis Political Report.
[i] http://ncfef.org/NCFEF_News/Entries/2010/8/12_Campaign_Finance_Reports__Analyzing_State_Parties_Coffers.html
[ii] http://www.nccivitas.org/n-c-partisan-index-state-senate-districts
“Basnight often gives campaign money to the state Democratic Party, which can give unlimited amounts to legislative candidates.” AP, March 18, 2010 1 Last Thursday night, former Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt hosted a fundraiser for Democratic Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight at the State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. According to the Associated Press, 300 to 400 people
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“Basnight often gives campaign money to the state Democratic Party, which can give unlimited amounts to legislative candidates.” AP, March 18, 2010 1
Last Thursday night, former Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt hosted a fundraiser for Democratic Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight at the State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. According to the Associated Press, 300 to 400 people paying $100-$4000 were expected to show up in order that the good senator from Dare County would have the war chest needed to continue the 114-year winning streak of the Senate Democratic caucus.
Money flows to those with power. Those with power use the money to keep their power. Those with money use those with power to keep their money. Many of those in attendance at the fairgrounds represented large corporations who claim to be champions of the free market system of economy; a system whereby private interests compete for profit with little governmental intervention. Truth be known, many of those large corporations … like Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina … use government intervention to gain a competitive advantage over their competition; a role government leaders like former Sen. Tony Rand are happy to play … provided you pay … at events like the fundraiser last Thursday night.
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Citizens United Seminar Speakers Lead the Way for Corporations and Trade Associations “Today, the days of Alice in Wonderland budgeting in Trenton end.” –Chris Christie, newly elected GOP Governor of New Jersey, Joint Session of Legislature, Feb. 11, 2010 The Highest Risk Option for Business in 2010 is Unilateral Political Disarmament Leveling NC’s Political Playing
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Citizens United Seminar Speakers Lead the Way for Corporations and Trade Associations
“Today, the days of Alice in Wonderland budgeting in Trenton end.”
–Chris Christie, newly elected GOP Governor of New Jersey, Joint Session of Legislature, Feb. 11, 2010
The Highest Risk Option for Business in 2010 is Unilateral Political Disarmament
Leveling NC’s Political Playing Field: How to Use New Business Free Speech Rights, was the topic for a seminar hosted on Monday by Longistics. Four experts addressed the legal and practical application of the new rights to corporate-funded independent expenditure ads, recently granted by the U.S. Supreme Court. Speaking to the law were attorneys Robert S. LaBrant, Sr. VP, Political Affairs & General Counsel, Michigan Chamber, and Stephen B. Long, a partner with Williams Mullen, Raleigh. Speaking to the practical application of the law were political consultants Chris Sinclair, Cornerstone Solutions, and Neal Rhoades, Southeast Strategies.
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