Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/JDPR-2-22-2011-Charlotte-Host-DNC.mp3|titles=JDPR 2 22 2011 Charlotte Host DNC] “NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete
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“NC’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s reelection bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.” Associated Press, February 2, 2011
A Model of Innovation and Global Competitiveness … or Algorithmic Voodoo?
A headline in the Wall Street Journal, Feb. 2, 2011, read, “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue.” The story suggested that Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention in order to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking. The President’s campaign team wants to show that they are confident of repeat wins in historically red states like North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia.
That’s all well and good, but I believe that there is an even more important reason for choosing Charlotte: North Carolina. It’s not just Charlotte, it’s our state. Our state represents Obama’s vision of the new model when it comes to innovation and global competitiveness. North Carolina may have been “First in Flight” in the 20th Century, but our growing reputation in the 21st Century is “First in Innovation,” an outgrowth of being “First in Business.”
From Forbes to Site Selection magazine, North Carolina has been recognized as having the “Best Business Climate” year after year for a decade. Democrats beam with pride when they see those national awards of distinction handed to our state. However, Republicans act as if the criteria for identifying our exceptional competitive qualities are based on algorithmic voodoo.
What’s a Republican to Do?
What is a Republican to do? Last fall, North Carolina voters elected Republicans to shore up the long-term prospects of maintaining the state’s favorable business climate by restoring financial health and efficient delivery of governmental services. Those two qualities, financial health and efficient delivery of services, have fallen by the wayside due to unilateral state budget power over too long a period of time by those who put the Democratic Party ahead of the fiscal integrity of the state and the character of its leaders.
Voters are now counting on Republicans to take ownership of our state’s business climate, and to stake a claim for a fair share of all things positive in our state … including the positive qualities like our model business climate that led to the selection of our state as the host state for the Democratic National Convention.
Sharing the Credit for a Business Climate that is the Envy of the Nation
So, before you GOPers start grousing over the positive commentary on the selection of Charlotte for the DNC national confab in 2012, please remember that the mayor of Charlotte during most of the dynamic growth since 1995 was a Republican named Pat McCrory.
Over the past four decades, millions of Republican business leaders and Republican employees have helped build great companies and communities in North Carolina. They, right along with Democratic business leaders and Democratic employees … and Independent business leaders and Independent employees … helped make our state’s business climate the envy of the nation.
Take a look at the lists of high praise below and give some thought about whether these honors would have come to North Carolina without the hard work and good successes of all of us.
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2010
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 9 of the last 10 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 2 Best State for Business by CEO’s, Chief Executive magazine, May/June
- No. 3 Best State for Business, Forbes, October
- No. 3 State for In-migration, United Van Lines Migration Study
- No. 4 America’s Top States for Business survey, CNBC, July
- No. 5 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate
- No. 7 Best-Performing City: Raleigh-Cary area, Milken Institute, October
- Raleigh, Charlotte and Durham Forbes list of Best Places for Business and Careers
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2009
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 8 of the last 9 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 2 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
- No. 2 Best State for Business by CEOs, Chief Executive magazine, February
- No. 3 Pro-Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, June
- No. 5, Forbes Best States for Business, September
- No. 8, Top States for Nanotechnology, August, 2009 (Raleigh No. 4 for Nano Metros)
- No. 9, America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July (No. 2 for Workforce)
- Next Cities list of 60 U.S. Hotspots for Young, Talented Workers : Charlotte under “Super Cities”; Durham under “Midsize Magnets”; Cary under “Mighty Micros.”
- 4 N.C. cities on CNNMoney.com best places for small business startups, Oct. 13
- Best Places for Business and Careers: No. 1 Raleigh, No. 3 Durham, No. 6 Asheville, No. 13 Wilmington, No. 18 Winston-Salem and No. 19 Charlotte (in the “Best Metros” category); and No. 2 Greenville (in the “Best Small Metros” category), Forbes, March
North Carolina’s Business Climate – The Envy of the Nation in 2008
- No. 1 Best Business Climate 7 of last 8 years, Site Selection magazine, November
- No. 1 State with Small Metropolitan Areas Having the Most New and Expanded Corporate Facilities, Site Selection magazine, March
- No. 1 Pro Business State, Pollina Corporate Real Estate, Inc. study
- No. 2 Best Business Climate, Development Counselors International (DCI), July
- No. 3 Most Competitive State, Site Selection, May
- No. 3 Largest Biotech Industry of U.S. States, Beyond Borders, Ernst & Young
- No. 4 for Biotech Strength in Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, Business Facilities, July
- No. 4 Best State for Business, Forbes magazine, July
- No. 6 America’s Top States for Business study, CNBC, July
NC’s Industrial Transformation, the Centerpiece of the Democrats’ Re-election bid
Today, North Carolinians are younger, smarter, and more urban/suburban than they were 10 years ago according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Our 18.5% growth has also created greater diversity. North Carolinians are just as likely to be from somewhere else USA; our demographic profile is more like the nation than the South. As Ferrel Guillory, Director of The Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill, wrote in his essay North Carolina: she ain’t what she used to be, “The state has transformed from biracial to multi-cultural.” Why? Economic opportunity.
North Carolina is one of the emerging states that best exemplifies the message of change that Obama won on in 2008. That’s the thematic reason we were chosen to host the Democrats next September. Young, smart, diverse … first in innovation, leading the way in economic recovery and business investment.
Granted, the commitment by Duke Energy’s CEO Jim Rogers to raise the necessary $37 million to host the event was a critical factor; and, the fact that Charlotte’s new Democratic Mayor Anthony Foxx is tight with the President helped a bit. Ummmmm, and then there is the prospect of a late-night, one-on-one game with Michael Jordan. But none of that would have mattered if North Carolina had not developed into one of the most dynamic places in the world to live, learn, work, raise a family … and make money; one of a handful of states “leading the comeback from the worst recession since the 1930s,” according to an analysis by USA Today.
Associated Press writer Liz Sidoti said it best in her February 1, 2011 story titled, Dems choose Charlotte for 2012 convention. Sidoti wrote, “With the economy certain to dominate Obama’s re-election bid, North Carolina’s long-term industrial transformation — from tobacco, textiles, and furniture to research, energy, and banking — plays into what may be the centerpiece of the Democrat’s re-election bid, a call for the U.S. to focus on innovation to compete in the changing global marketplace.”
Will Obama Win NC Again? Will the GOP Hold the Legislative Majority?
As the Wall Street Journal story “Democrats’ 2012 Convention Plan Aims to Keep North Carolina Blue” suggested, Charlotte was selected to host the DNC’s national convention to send a signal to the political community that President Obama’s target map is not shrinking.
What are Obama’s prospects for winning North Carolina in 2012? Well, half of all voters in our 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP presidential ticket of McCain/Palin.
Those 1,027,114 voters who supported Obama/Biden in 2008 still live here, and they are still more likely to support Democrats. It’s an urban thing; same throughout the US.
However, in 2010, independent suburban voters, along with conservative Democrats and loyal Republicans, gave the North Carolina GOP a majority in the state Senate and state House of Representatives. Those voters still live here too.
Whether North Carolinians will give Obama another win in 2012 is uncertain. The more important question is will North Carolinians give Republicans another opportunity to lead the state following the 2012 elections. That is equally uncertain.
What is certain is that Republican odds will improve if they begin to see the state the way everyone else in the country sees North Carolina: youthful and innovative, diverse, leading the way to a globally competitive citizenry … an exemplary state with a business climate that is the envy of the nation … a state fitting for a national political convention.
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Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention Key Dates in 2012 Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!) Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa
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“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention
Key Dates in 2012
- Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!)
- Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012
- Republican National Convention in Tampa August 27, 2012
- Democratic National Convention in Charlotte September 3, 2012
- General Election Day is November 6, 2012
No political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina … period.
North Carolina became a presidential battleground state in 2008 with President Obama’s historic win. It continues as a battleground state, despite the GOP takeover of the General Assembly.
Any hope among Republicans that they could gain an early advantage in the 2012 elections by parlaying their exclusive legislative power into unilateral political power has been dashed by the selection of Charlotte as the geographical center of President Obama’s campaign for reelection.
President Obama likes North Carolina. He came here 8 times in 2008 after his nomination in Denver. He vacationed here with his family in 2010. Last month he made a major policy speech at Forsyth Tech. And now, Charlotte has been selected as the host city for the Democratic National Convention.
“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink,” a senior Democratic official told ABC News. “President Obama will be very active in North Carolina and … despite what some have speculated, we are going to go as big in 2012 as we did in 2008 — and that means fighting hard for North Carolina, Virginia and all the states and more that helped elect President Obama in the first place.”
It is precisely because no political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina that you need to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report.
No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately last year. I projected the winner in 47 of 47 NC Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 NC House races (five races were toss ups). Since the last census, I have correctly projected 1100 of 1144 races in North Carolina … thanks in great part to my analysis of the districts.
I do not lobby, so I have no hesitation with writing objectively and boldly about the political mistakes of legislative leaders and the other factors that drive elections.
I do not have a partisan bias. My value as a political analyst and commentator is in having someone other than a party loyalist keeping you informed about the job party leaders are doing and the implications of their actions, good and bad, for election results in 2012.
I am not a political campaign consultant, so I have no conflict of interest in assessing the strengths of candidates and the status of political races.
Maps do not a majority make
New legislative and congressional districts will be mapped this year, with Republicans in charge for the first time since the 19th Century. Although you can count on Republicans to draw lines that favor their interests, there are many political forces far more important than the maps that I will be investigating on your behalf … like the 2012 battlefield leadership teams, the money, the strengths/weaknesses of the candidates and their consultants, President Obama’s decisions, the economy, unity/disunity among party leaders in North Carolina, political blunders, renegade uprisings, third-party organizations, the presidential and gubernatorial races, and the unforeseen local, state, national and international events of the day that always come along and shift the probability of success to one group of candidates over the other.
Democrats have been winning in Republican districts for decades because of the strengths and commitment of their leaders; because they recruited better candidates, raised more money and hired the best political professionals in the nation … and they worked harder, at least up until 2010 when all of those traditional Democratic strengths, including leaders, money, candidates and professionals, were seized by Republicans.
Who will seize the advantages of leadership, money, candidates and professional talent?
In 2010, I made the case that Democrats were less competitive due to events that had nothing to do with Republicans: like a shakeup of key legislative leaders due to retirements; a failed recruitment effort that left 11 Senate Republicans unchallenged and 29 House Republicans unchallenged; the disruption of corruption scandals; the overall dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation at a time when Democrats had all of the power; a disillusioned and unenthusiastic base; the loss of independent voters; a loss of confidence in President Obama, and the absence of a major investment in voter registration, turnout and straight-party voting as seen in 2008 when the Obama camp spent $ millions in NC.
Democratic loyalists would not have given you an accurate assessment of their political liabilities in 2010, and Republican loyalists are not going to give you an accurate assessment of their liabilities during the 2011-2012 election cycle.
This is where I come in. The weekly John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle, as well as the partisan momentum tracking in the Late Breaking Trends report, is available to you with the Premium subscription for $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.
The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else. More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.
Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
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