Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012 “So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in
[More…]
Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance
Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012
“So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in a lot of money from across the country to quickly make this a race.” Public Policy Polling, January 30, 2012, More on the NC governor’s race
Bowles Was the Biggest Threat to McCrory; Lt. Gov. Dalton Trails by 15 Points
I can hear the champagne corks popping all over the state as backers of former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s campaign for the GOP nomination for governor celebrate today’s decision by Erskine Bowles not to seek the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination. According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, Bowles was the only serious Democratic candidate who polled within 10 points of McCrory, trailing McCrory only 44-42.
Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton of Rutherford County, state Rep. Bill Faison of Orange County and former Congressman Bob Etheridge of Harnett County have announced their intentions to run for governor in the Democratic primary. The Public Policy Poll shows Dalton and Etheridge trailing McCrory by 15 points (50-35); Faison by 19 points (50-31). Former state Treasurer Richard Moore, still considering the race, trails McCrory by 11 points (47-36).
McCrory, the presumptive Republican Party nominee in the race for governor, made his formal announcement in Greensboro Tuesday, January 31, 2012, vowing to put an end to the Democrats’ “scandal-ridden good old boy (and girl) network and fix the state’s broken economy.”
Erskine Bowles was more than a serious threat to McCrory’s quest to be governor, his candidacy would have reinvigorated the North Carolina Democratic Party by attracting much needed national money and talent. Now, the steep political decline continues for Democrats as NC Republicans ascend to dominance.
Bowles Would Have Reinvigorated a Democratic Party in Disarray
The North Carolina Democrats have been in political disarray since losing the state Senate and House to Republicans in 2010 … a first in 140 years.
Compounding the loss of political dominance by Democrats is the fact that Gov. Perdue has proven to be a weak governor and a drag on their candidates. Further, Perdue has been tripped up time and again by allegations of campaign improprieties and the investigations and indictments of key staff and supporters.
“Bev Perdue’s retirement has clearly helped Democratic chances of holding the Governor’s office this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
There is no greater evidence of how the political fortunes of North Carolina Democrats have diminished than the campaign finance report filed this week by Sen. Martin Nesbitt, Senate Minority Leader, the most powerful Democrat in the Senate. Nesbitt’s January 2012 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he raised only $52,264 as of year-end 2011. At the same time two years ago, January 2010, then Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight reported raising $1,519,768.
Mid-year 2011 campaign finance reports showed Republicans in the NC Senate with a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over the loyal opposition party, a historic first, with NC House Republicans raising four times the money of their Democratic counterparts.
Republicans have Power, Money and Friendly Districts
Power has always meant money; money means you have the resources to hold on to your base of candidates, win most of the close races in “swing” districts, and even raid the opposition’s base and pick off a few of their seats. Republicans have the power, the money … and the districts.
Last November, the United States Justice Department preapproved the Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps, virtually assuring Republicans a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly throughout the decade. Two weeks ago, a 3-judge panel ruled against several plaintiffs, including the NAACP, who were trying to delay the May 8 primary elections based on allegation that the maps would re-segregate the state and diminish the influence of black voters.
These two rulings add to the list of legislative and judicial redistricting wins for the North Carolina GOP and suggest that the maps will withstand any future litigation.
Further evidence of a downward spiral for North Carolina Democrats came today as the leading Democrat in the NC House, Minority Leader Joe Hackney, announce that he would not seek reelection. Hackney, who served as Speaker of the House two terms, brings the total number of Democrats not seeking reelection in the NC House to 9, with more to come due to incumbent Democrats double-bunked into the same district.
McCrory has High Favorability Ratings & $2 Million in the Bank
According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, not only was the hypothetical race between Bowles and McCrory a virtual tie, 46% of North Carolina voters said that they are “generally leaning toward voting for a Democrat in the race for governor, with 45% saying they will vote Republican in the governor’s race.”
However, with Bowles out and no other Democrat within striking distance of McCrory, the presumptive GOP nominee’s political fortunes will soar … especially his fundraising.
Favorable findings for McCrory in the Public Policy Polling survey last weekend include:
- McCrory has high name recognition (76%) at the starting gate, with many more voters having a favorable opinion (45%); only 31% an unfavorable opinion
- In a state where 24% of all registered voters are Unaffiliated, Independent voters see McCrory positively by a 55%/25% spread
The year-end 2011 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that McCrory raised $2.6 million from 6,120 contributors last year, and has a little over $2 million cash on hand.
Bowles would have had no problem playing catch-up with fundraising. In both his 2002 and 2004 losing races for U.S. Senate seats won by Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, he spent $12.7 million and $13.4 million respectively, with $6.8 million coming out of his own pocket in 2002.
Now, Democrats will struggle all year to raise a competitive war chest in the Governor’s race. They simply do not have a superstar like Bowles to re-energize their financial base.
Without a SuperSTAR like Bowles, the Best Hope for Democrats is a SuperPAC
There was a news story last week about SAS co-founder and CEO Jim Goodnight hosting a fundraiser for Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton. Goodnight is generally recognized as the wealthiest man in the State of North Carolina and one of the wealthiest in the world.
Goodnight has a passion for education, especially elementary and secondary. The Public Policy Poll from last weekend notes a potential liability for McCrory, “his close ties to the unpopular Republican legislature and the cuts they’ve made to education.”
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling two years ago in the Citizen’s United case declared that wealthy individuals like Goodnight and corporations like SAS can spend an unlimited amount of money influencing the outcome of political races … provided they spend it independently and not in collusion with the campaigns they are attempting to help.
With the steep decline in the prowess of the North Carolina Democratic Party, and the rapid ascendancy of the Republican Party as the dominant political party, there are only two recovery options for the Democrats: an exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle or a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
I do not see the exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle on the list of statewide Democratic candidates. Disagree? Well, who would you say is the Jim Hunt of 2012? That leaves recovery option #2: a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
That’s where the Jim Goodnights of the state meet with the Citizen’s United decision; unlimited funding for everything the party lacks resources to do better than the Republicans … from voter registration and early voting turnout to unlimited millions in advertising dollars targeting every vulnerable Republican in the state.
You can already count on outside money pouring into the state with the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Charlotte and the fact that President Obama likes North Carolina. And, you can count on outside union money pouring in from the coffers of the NEA (teachers), AFSCME (government employees) and SEIU (service employees). But all of that money will pale in significance to the money now allowed under the Citizens United decision.
In the absence of a superstar like Erskine Bowles, the best hope for North Carolina Democrats is a SuperPAC. The traditional 10-to-1 advantage in total legislative campaign funds raised by the majority party is now chump change compared to the potential for a tsunami of outside SuperPAC funding.
There is a new political paradigm in North Carolina politics: the SuperPAC. If the GOP is to continue its ascendancy to political dominance, they must also embrace this new political reality in campaign funding.
Candidate filing begins on February 15, and ends on February 29. The primary is May 8.
Transcript of statement by Erskine Bowles released to AP this morning:
“I will not be a candidate for Governor. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to think what is the right thing for me to do. I don’t think anyone questions my love for North Carolina or my efforts to make our State a better place to live, work , or raise a family . I’ve done my best in this regard and I plan to continue to do so . There are lots of ways to make a difference , lots of ways to add to the community woodpile . I’m excited about helping our State’s and Nation’s leaders move North Carolina and our Country forward . We’ve got big challenges and great opportunities. I’m confident if we can get folks to put politics aside , and pull together , not apart , there are no problems we can’t solve working together. Erskine Bowles”
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription $245 Monthly rate $23 (cancel at any time).
Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe Online HERE!
Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30 “The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.” Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2,
[More…]
Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30
“The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.”
Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: GOP U.S. Presidential Ticket
Yesterday’s John Davis Political Report suggested that the Republican Presidential ticket in 2012 was likely to be Romney-Gingrich, and that President Obama may have to replace Vice President Biden with a business person, like Erskine Bowles, in order to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who has the credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Gingrich brings two valuable/essential political assets to the GOP ticket: staying power (he’s as tough skinned, politically savvy and as intelligent as anyone), and conservative bona fides. No Democrat will defeat Gingrich in a Vice Presidential debate, and no Republican will spark more enthusiasm among Tea Party economic conservatives and Republican social conservatives than Gingrich.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 11/3/2011: Romney-Gingrich likely GOP Ticket
- Romney’s seasoning will win him the nomination … as the last contender standing.
- However, Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Tea Party support as well as the support of the most conservative Republicans … who don’t like him at all.
- Romney: has been at 25% all year, meaning 75% of the GOP prefer someone else.
- Newt Gingrich: will bring conservative enthusiasm to the ticket.
- Rick Perry: will continue to implode under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush. Fear of a third Bush term will be his doom. (Oct 2008 Bush job approval was 25%; Obama job approval today is: 45%)
- Herman Cain: is through due in part to an inept campaign manager (thinks blowing cigarette smoke into the camera in a TV ad is politically clever) and no campaign organization (try turning out Iowa caucus voters on a cold rainy January day without a ground game). Cain’s apparent strategy, winning the White House with a “There’s a sucker born every minute” snow job, was doomed from the start. His poor crisis management in the face of sexual harassment allegations is confirmation of the ineptitude of his campaign manager and his not ready for prime time candidacy.
- Ron Paul: too old at age 76 to begin an administration (Reagan oldest at 69; Wm. H. Harrison was 67); doubts about electability continue to plague the Paul camp.
- Rick Santorum: too angry/whiny/defensive (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.8%)
- Michelle Bachmann: too happy (Real Clear Politics polls average 3.8%); “out of money and ideas,” says Ed Rollins, Bachmann’s former campaign manager.
- John Huntsman: Obama’s Ambassador to China (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.2%)
- Newt Gingrich: the conservative’s conservative; great debater; staying power at the presidential level.
Gingrich will pick up Cain’s Votes in NC and US
North Carolina: Today’s Public Policy Polling survey shows GOP support for Gingrich at 22%, ahead of Romney’s 19%. Although Cain leads the list at 30%, his days are numbered. Gingrich will inherit most of Cain’s votes in North Carolina.
Perry has 10% among NC Republicans, Bachmann 4%, Paul 4%, Huntsman 2% and Santorum 2%.
National Republican Presidential: Although in the Real Clear Politics polling average for Gingrich runs behind Cain (26%), Romney (24%) and Perry (10%), he is more likely than Perry to pick up Cain’s votes … which will put him ahead of Perry within the month.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Election Cycle Subscription $245 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate $23 (cancel at any time).
Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe Online HERE!
Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29 “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011 Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President On Labor Day, September 2, 2011,
[More…]
Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29
“I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.”
Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, including the GOP Presidential Nominee. Here are updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 11/2/2011: Obama wins
- Today’s Real Clear Politics polling average: Obama at 45% approval; 49.6% disapproval.
- Today, Gallup polling average has Obama’s job approval at 45%, with 48% disapproving.
- If Obama’s job approval is only 5 points from a winning 50% approval rating during worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, then any sustained measure of growth in jobs/economy will restore his political viability.
- Today’s Public Policy Polling release shows Obama’s job approval in NC the same as the national figures: 45% approve; 50% disapprove.
- The PPP poll shows Obama virtually tied in North Carolina with Romney, and 3 to 8 points ahead of all other GOP contenders.
Running Against “Obstructionist” Republicans May Not be Enough
Although President Obama will continue to run with some success against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress, that strategy alone will not likely be enough to restore the confidence of Americans in his ability to lead the nation out of an economic crisis.
Despite the fact that Congressional job approval is at a dismal average of 12.7% per Real Clear Politics; 82.3% disapprove, the winning presidential ticket will be the one the voters see as most likely to deal most effectively with the great needs of the day: jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
If you think about the backgrounds of President Obama and Vice President Biden, there is very little that would give Americans confidence that they are the most capable among governmental leaders to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Romney-Gingrich Ticket a Serious Threat to Obama-Biden
A Romney-Gingrich ticket would be real threat to the Obama-Biden ticket because Romney has been in the private sector his entire life, with good success. Clearly he can make the better argument with Republicans, Tea Party conservatives and undecided Independent voters that he has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
So, what is Obama to do next year if he is losing the debate over who is most competent to deal with the great economic problems of the day? He has no choice but to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who brings business experience and sound fiscal management to the table.
Erskine Bowles is that someone.
Yesterday, Erskine Bowles told the Congressional Super Committee, “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” That’s the kind of no-nonsense straight forward commentary the people of America want to hear someone say to elected officials.
If Obama is losing ground next year and needs to strengthen the ticket with someone who has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness, there could not be a better choice than Bowles.
- Life-long successful businessman with MBA from Columbia
- Served on the board of many respected companies like GM, Morgan Stanley and Facebook
- Head of the U.S. Small Business Administration under President Clinton
- Chief of Staff to President Clinton during longest period of economic expansion in U.S. History
- Key negotiator on behalf of Clinton in the successful bipartisan talks that led to a balanced budget
- Headed a task force under Gov. Hunt on rural economic prosperity
- President of the University of North Carolina System 2006-2010
- Co-chair of President Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Just in case an Obama-Bowles ticket comes together, here is a bumper sticker for them to consider:
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Election Cycle Subscription $245 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate $23 (cancel at any time).
Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe Online HERE!