John Davis Consulting

Early Voting Stats Shows 5.3% Shift to GOP in North Carolina; National Trend Favors Romney

According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, Obama no longer has the early voting advantage that he enjoyed in 2008.

 As for North Carolina in 2012, Democrats are down 3.85% in early voting turnout compared to 2008, and Republicans are up 1.46%.  That’s a net GOP gain of 5.28%.   John Davis Political Report, 11/5/2012

 Monday, November 5, 2012       Vol. V, No. 39           1:13 pm

If Mitt Romney has neutralized President Obama’s 2008 early voting advantage, he will win.

Obama’s strategic advantage has always been the ground game: voter registration and turnout.  That was how he won in 2008.  A ground game requires tens of thousands of enthusiastic volunteers.  In 2008, Obama had them and the GOP didn’t.  In 2012, the GOP has seized the enthusiastic volunteers advantage, thereby neutralizing the early voting turnout advantage.

According to POLITICO’s Lois Romano in her 11/2/12 story titled, Obama early vote edge tenuous, it was anticipated that Obama would not achieve his 2008 early voting advantage.

Romano cited a Pew Research Center report that says neither Obama nor Romney “has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”

Further evidence of the shifting early voting fortunes favoring Romney can be found in a study by George Mason University of requested mail ballots in key swing states.  Example:

In Florida, 406,634 registered Democrats have not returned their mail ballots compared to 362,920 Republicans. In comparison, registered Democrats have returned 700,970 mail ballots compared to 781,043 Republicans.

As to overall early voting turnout, according to the United States Elections Project, maintained by George Mason University, a total of 31,660,358 Americans voted early in 2012, down from the 40,592,111 who voted early in 2008 (30.6% of 132,653,958 voted early in 2008).

Although North Carolina has about 120,000 more early voters than in 2008, the percent of the total vote is less (41.8% in 2008; 41.3% in 2012) due to overall registration growing from 6.3 million voters to 6.6 million during the past 4 year.

North Carolina Early Voting Shifts 5.3% in Favor of Republicans

As for North Carolina in 2012, a loss of 3.85% among Democratic early voting turnout compared to 2008, and a gain of 1.46% for Republicans compared to 2008, has yielded a net GOP gain of 5.28%.

2008 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,618,419 of 6,264,733 (41.8%)

• Democrats                  51.52%
• Republicans                30.01%
• Unaffiliateds               18.4%
• Libertarians

2012 Early Voting Turnout – North Carolina Total: 2,738,947 of 6,631,904  (41.3%)

• Democrats                  47.67%
• Republicans                31.44
• Unaffiliateds               20.66%
• Libertarians                0.22%

In addition to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, a great website for seeing early voting stats is www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/, which is maintained by the Civitas Institute.

 – END –

The Great Chapel Hill Obama Bumper Sticker Hunt; If he has lost Chapel Hill, he has lost the race.

 “Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama.  Today, it’s cool to be independent.”  

Student in Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 Seminar at UNC-Chapel Hill

Monday, October 29, 2012       Vol. V, No. 37           10:13 am

Last Thursday, October 25, I had the high honor and distinct pleasure of speaking to Hodding Carter’s Public Policy 70 seminar at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

A high honor.  Hodding Carter was U.S. State Department spokesman during the Iran Hostage Crisis from November 1979 to January 1981; one of the most recognized faces in America during the ordeal.  He briefed the nation nightly on network news broadcasts.

A distinct pleasure.  I was surrounded by 24 very intelligent, uninhibited, diverse, inquisitive and suspicious leaders of tomorrow.  Suspicious because I am from another time.  They share the here and now together; staring out with great concern at the pieces being left behind by my generation.  Justifiably uncertain.  Of our value to them.

I was early.  Hodding Carter said to meet him at 1:50 in front of Graham Memorial Hall next to Morehead Planetarium.  It was 1 o’clock.  I was at the light at South and Country Club Road.

I decided to ride around campus and look at all of the political activity.  After all, it was a presidential election year.  If 2012 was anything like 2008 in Chapel Hill, there would be Obama posters in dorm windows, signs of Obama enthusiasm everywhere; students wearing Obama tee shirts, bumper stickers on every car.  Hope. Change.

I turned right on Country Club Road.  The Department of Dramatic Art.  Battle Park.  The Forest Theatre.  Cameron Avenue.  Hummmmmmmmmmm.  No sign of political life.

On past the Old Well; student crossings.  No Obama tee shirts.  Through the intersection at South Columbia Street.  Left at The Carolina Inn onto Pittsboro Street.  No bumper stickers.

I continued straight at the light to Manning Drive; the hospital complex.  Students coming up the hill.  No sign of political life.

In 2008, my twin sons were university seniors; one at North Carolina State University in Raleigh and one at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.  Both campuses were hotbeds of Obama enthusiasm.  Over 5,000 students at NC State in Reynolds Coliseum to hear Michele Obama; 18,000 in the Dean Dome at Chapel Hill to hear Barack Obama.

I spent a lot of time on both campuses that year, witnessing first hand the excitement among young voters for Barack Obama. There were signs everywhere; folding tables and chairs around campus and on Franklin and Hillsborough Streets as young volunteers urged their fellow students to register and vote early.  For Obama.

I turned right into Hinton James Dormitory.  It was my son’s freshman dorm.  I wanted to count the Obama signs in the windows.  Hundreds of windows.  Hummmmmm.  Not one Obama sign.

I glanced around the parking lot.  No Obama bumper stickers.  Curious.  Very curious.

Back out onto Manning and right into the parking lot at Koury and Ehringhaus.  Hundreds of cars.  No Obama signs in windows.  No Obama bumper stickers.  Not one.

Right on Ridge Road and left on Stadium Drive.  Parker.  Teague.  Kenan Stadium.  No signs.  No tee shirts.  No bumper stickers.  No sign of political life.

Right on to South Road.  UNC Student Stores; Student Union.  Student crossings.  Nothing.

I began to feel like the Greek philosopher Diogenes with his lamp in search of one honest man.  Surely there was one Obama bumper sticker in Chapel Hill.  One tee shirt.  One sign.

Left onto Raleigh Street.  Winston. Conner. Alexander. Lewis. Everett. Stacy. Graham. Aycock.  Past the Coker Arboretum.  McIver. Kenan. Alderman. Spencer.  No signs.  No tee shirts.

Left onto East Franklin Street.  Surely in downtown Chapel Hill, the fulcrum of liberal activism in North Carolina, there will be plenty of Obama signs and tee shirts and bumper stickers.

I parked in the parking lot at the planetarium, right next to Graham Memorial Hall where I was to meet Hodding Carter at 1:50.  It was only 1:20.  I had plenty of time to count the Obama bumper stickers in downtown Chapel Hill.

I walked towards downtown across the street from McAlister’s Deli and the Post Office, careful to look back at the bumpers of cars parked in the other direction.  Nope.

Then I spotted one of those message boards where everyone posts flyers about upcoming concerts and study abroad programs.  Hummmmmm.  I see Delta Rae is playing at the Carolina Theatre on Friday, November 16.  Justin Townes Earle and Tift Merritt are at Cat’s Cradle on Thursday, November 15.  Not one Obama poster.

Newspaper racks. Bus stops. Trash cans.  Parking meters.  No Obama signs.  Students coming and going.  No tee shirts.  Cars in every metered spot.  No bumper stickers.

Hummmmmmmmmmmm.

I crossed Franklin Street at Spanky’s and walked back towards Graham.  A street preacher handed me a “Are you right with the Lord” tract.  Cold Stone Creamery.  Varsity Theater.  Trees.  Benches.  Bikes.  Julian’s.  No Obama signs.

Chapel Hill was a political ghost town.

Another message board.  Swing Dance lessons Wednesdays in November at the ArtsCenter in Carrboro.  Study Abroad Scholarships at www.goabroad.com.  Eat at Flaming Amy’s Burrito Barn in Wilmington.  Not one Obama sign.

I crossed Franklin Street near Graham Memorial Hall.  There among the giant oaks stood Silent Sam, the statue of a Confederate soldier erected in 1913 by the United Daughters of the Confederacy.  I waited there for Hodding Carter, a great American journalist and Civil Rights pioneer; pondering the waning political fortunes of America’s first African-American president.

Just four years earlier, Barack Obama had inspired thousands of young people on more than 100 college campuses across North Carolina to do the hard work of winning campaigns.  They registered and turned voters out in record numbers.

Exit polling in North Carolina showed that voters between 18 and 29 chose Obama over John McCain by a whopping 74%-26% margin.  Obama carried the state by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast.  Without enthusiastic young people, this state’s 15 electoral votes would have gone to McCain.  But, where are the signs in the dorm windows today?  The bumper stickers?

My NC State and UNC-Chapel Hill twin sons went to President Obama’s inauguration.  Drove all night and stood in the freezing cold for hours from sunup to noon just to witness the historic occasion.  I was so proud of them.  Proud about how far we have come since my Great Grandfather, John Davis, fought along side Silent Sam.

At precisely 1:50, Hodding Carter came walking up the sidewalk.  We chatted a minute about our children and friends we have in common in Mississippi.  He told me about his class.  He said that it was the most interesting group he had taught in six years.

Soon I was surrounded by 24 very intelligent, uninhibited, diverse, inquisitive and suspicious leaders of tomorrow.  Suspicious because I am from another time.  They share the here and now together; staring out with great concern at the pieces being left behind by my generation.  Justifiably uncertain.  Of our value to them.

 Unlike my generation, there is not a racist sentiment in any of these students.  Diversity is not a goal for them.  That’s old school.  Diversity is today’s social norm.  Today’s generation does not merely tolerate differences, they celebrate differences.

If President Obama loses his race for a second term, it will be because he disappointed his base on matters of the economy.  Jobs. Unemployment. Debt.  Disappointed his base.

I suspect that most of Hodding Carter’s students will vote for President Obama.  I also suspect that they are not volunteering their time to turn out voters in record numbers this year; that they do not have Obama posters on their dorm walls.

I asked the class why there were no signs of life for Obama on campus.  One student replied, “Four years ago it was cool to be for Obama.  Today, it’s cool to be independent.”

For whatever reasons, the enthusiasm that I saw four years ago on the campuses of North Carolina State University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill for Barack Obama is gone.  The campuses look like political ghost towns.

I never found one Obama bumper sticker last Thursday in Chapel Hill.

If President Obama has lost the enthusiastic support of Chapel Hill, he has lost the race.

 – END –

Mitt Romney will be the Next U.S. President

Site: Grove Park Inn, Asheville; October 4, 2012.
Event: North Carolina Forestry Association Annual Meeting.
Scene: Audience member asks, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President.  Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?”
Answer: “Yes, I changed my opinion last night after the presidential debate in Denver … because of two words: unity and enthusiasm.  Up until then, Republicans were not united or enthusiastic about Romney.  Today they are.”

Friday, October 26, 2012       Vol. V, No. 36           1:13 pm

Dedicated to the memory of Bob Slocum, Jr., Executive Vice President of the North Carolina Forestry Association, who died October 16, 2012

On Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Mitt Romney will be elected President of the United States.

Two powerful forces at play argue for a Romney win. One, Republicans are united and enthusiastic about Romney.  For Romney not just against Obama.  Two, President Obama’s 2008 base of support is not united and not enthusiastic.  Disappointed.

The turning point was the first presidential debate in Denver.  Romney won by a record 72% according to Gallup’s national survey of debate watchers.  Only 20% thought Obama won.

• Romney’s 52-point win is the largest presidential debate win Gallup has ever measured
• In 2008, Gallup showed Obama as the winner in all three debates over John McCain

On October 3, 2012, Mitt Romney accomplished something every conservative in American would have loved to have done: he defeated President Barack Obama, a liberal, in an ideological argument about the economy in front of 67 million people.  Enthusiasm kindled.  Unity fused.

Reluctant Republicans joined with Romney stalwarts.  Religious right Republicans.  Tea Party Republicans.  Libertarian Republicans.  Business moderate Republicans.  United.  Excited.

The results were apparent right away.  According to the Washington Post-ABC News Poll conducted October 10-13, the number of Romney voters “Very enthusiastic” about supporting him is 62%, up from 48% in late September and 26% in late May.  In other words, enthusiasm for Romney among his supporters has grown by 161% since the May survey.

An even more significant number in the poll in measuring Romney’s potential: only 31% of John McCain’s supporters were “very enthusiastic” about him in October of 2008; Romney 62%.

For emphasis: After the first debate, Mitt Romney’s “very enthusiastic” support percent doubled that of John McCain’s at the same time four years ago.

• 31% of John McCain’s supporters were “very enthusiastic” about him in October 2008
• 62% of Mitt Romney’s supporters are “very enthusiastic” about him in October 2012

First Signs of Disenchantment with Obama came in Fall 2009

Disenchantment in the Obama camp was evident within months of his inauguration in 2009.  According to Gallup, President Obama’s job approval after his first week in office was 69%.  By that fall, his job approval had plummeted to 50%.  Year-end, 48%.

Two states had governors races in the fall of 2009.  Despite personal visits and impassioned appeals by Obama, Republicans won in Virginia and New Jersey.  Low turnout among African-Americans.  Low turnout among young people.  Shifting loyalties of independent voters.

According to exit polling:

• Only 8% of the 18-to-24-year-old voters turned out in New Jersey (17% in 2008)
• Only 10% of the 18-to-24-year-olds turned out in Virginia (21% in 2008).

Virginia gubernatorial winner Bob McDonnell received 62% of the independent votes, with Democrat Creigh Deeds capturing only 37%. In New Jersey, GOP gubernatorial winner Chris Christie received 58% of the independent votes, with Democrat Corzine capturing only 31%.

Then came the special election for U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts in January 2010.  Victory denied.  Obama’s influence again ignored.  That fall, American voters flipped 65 U.S. House seats from Democrat to Republican.  Largest gain by either party since 1948.

Where were the enthusiastic Obama volunteers from 2008?  Vanished in the fog of uncertainty that accompanies unemployment and underemployment.

On October 8, a new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll concluded:  “The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.”  Disappointed.

I did not see the enthusiasm and unity for Romney coming

Throughout this election cycle, I have hesitated to call the race for Romney because of two critical factors: Republican unity and Republican enthusiasm.  They were in doubt.  Despite growing signs of a disenchanted Obama base, there were still simply too many Republicans who doubted Romney’s conservative bona fides.

Then came Wednesday, October 3, 2012; University of Denver.  Mitt Romney accomplished something every conservative in America would have loved to have done: he defeated President Barack Obama, a liberal, in an ideological argument about the economy in front of 67 million people.  Enthusiasm kindled.  Unity fused.

I watched the debate in my room at the Grove Park Inn, the same hotel where President Obama stayed in 2008 when he prepared for his first debate against John McCain.  I was there for a speech to the Annual Meeting of the North Carolina Forestry Association.  The speech was written; the PowerPoint presentation was prepared saying Obama would win a second term.

Then came Mitt Romney’s 52-point win in the first presidential debate.  Largest presidential debate win Gallup has ever measured.  The same Barack Obama who had won all three debates against John McCain in 2008 just lost.  Lost big.

I turned my laptop on and opened my PowerPoint presentation.  For the first time in this election cycle I typed, “Romney likely winner of U.S. Presidential race.”  I had always said that he would carry North Carolina.  Now, I believed he would take it all.

After my speech to the Forestry Association the next morning, during the Q&A, a member of the audience asked, “John, you said this morning that Romney would be the next President.  Have you changed your opinion recently? If so, when and why?”

I replied, “Yes, I changed my opinion last night after the presidential debate in Denver … because of two words: unity and enthusiasm.  Up until then, Republicans were not united or enthusiastic about Romney.  Today they are.”

 – END –