John Davis Consulting

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Gov. Perdue’s Probability of Winning 2^nd Term in 2012: 45%

Post: August 24, 2011       Vol. IV, No. 22

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“The governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats. a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.”

This is the first look by the John Davis Political Report at Gov. Perdue’s probability of winning a second term as Governor of North Carolina in the 2012 elections.  A dozen key political and economic variables have been used in the Investor’s Political Daily – Governors Race algorithm that suggests her probability of winning.

Bottom Line:  If the election for governor were held today, Perdue’s probability of winning would be only about 45%.  As you will see when you open the chart, it’s hard to find any good news for Governor Perdue at this point in her administration.

The Investors Political Daily – Governors Race Report, will be updated Wednesday through Election Day in November 2012.

Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Perdue’s Probability of Winning a 2nd Term.

Seven sources were used to compile the dozen political and economic indicators used in the algorithm. They include Gallup for the two national economic indicators, the North Carolina Employment Security Commission for the latest unemployment numbers, the North Carolina State Board of Elections for the fundraising numbers, Public Policy Polling and Civitas for the North Carolina poll numbers, Pollster.com for Obama’s job approval in North Carolina, and Investors Political Daily for Obama’s probability of winning in North Carolina.

Each of the 12 economic and political variables has their own weight in the algorithm with the highest weighted variable being “Fundraising.”  Gov. Perdue barely defeated GOP nominee Pat McCrory in 2008 despite outspending him 2-to1 in one of the best turnout years for Democrats in modern political history.  Midyear reports filed with the North Carolina State Board of Elections show Perdue raising $1.3 million, meager  compared to the $1 million reported by McCrory.

In addition to “Fundraising,” the variables carrying the most weight in the algorithm include “North Carolina Unemployment,” “Perdue’s Job Approval,” “Perdue v/s McCrory Trial Heat,” “Obama’s probability of winning in North Carolina,” and the “leaning of Independent voters” in the governor’s race.

Again, this report will be updated each Wednesday for the remainder of the election cycle.

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!

John N. Davis, Editor

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