UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13
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UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem
Post: Monday, May 21, 2012 Vol. V, No. 17 2:13 pm
Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America
Last Monday, May 14, 2012, I wrote that after decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles; that Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; and she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s.
On May 17, Public Policy Polling released the results of a new North Carolina survey showing Perdue’s disapproval rating the highest ever, with 57% of voters disapproving of the job she is doing to only 31% who approve.
Quoting PPP, a Democratic polling firm, “… that 57% disapproval is the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling.”
- Among Democrats, Perdue has 50% approval; 34% disapproval.
- Among Republicans, Perdue has a 7% approval; 87% disapproval.
- Among Independents, Perdue has a 27% approval; 64% disapproval.
It’s no wonder that many writers are beginning to report that national Democrats are having buyers’ remorse over the selection of North Carolina for their convention. A bit more vetting by the DNC and they would have seen that under Perdue’s leadership the state party has collapsed.
National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup
On Friday, May 18, 2012, National Journal, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected non-partisan political research organizations, unveiled the first installment of their Hotline’s monthly gubernatorial rankings, listing the governorships most likely to flip partisan control this fall. North Carolina is #1 on the list of the top ten states likely to see a partisan change in the governor’s mansion. “We see North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s seat as more likely to wind up in Republican hands,” writes National Journal.
National Journal Forecasts McCrory Win: “It has been more than 20 years since a Republican won the governorship, but former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is looking like a heavy favorite against Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton,” concludes National Journal.
CNN: Obama’s North Carolina math problem
CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby wrote a story on Friday, May 18, 2012, titled Obama’s North Carolina math problem, in which he concluded that the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to math.
Hamby points out what I have concluded for years: “Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.”
Hamby quoted a “senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity” as saying that “white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.”
“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”
CNN news anchor Wolf Blitzer interviewed James Carville, President Clinton’s campaign manager, about the story, Obama’s North Carolina math problem. Carville agreed with Blitzer’s statement that the numbers do not look good.
With PPP stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
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John N. Davis, Editor
Take advantage of the July 4 Sale! A 20% discount on the Premium Annual Subscription … now only $196. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures. Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican
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NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
Post: Monday, May 14, 2012 Vol. V, No. 16 3:13 pm
Democratic Leadership Collapse; Republican Leadership Emergence
Forecast: A historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives.
The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party during the past 10 years and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party argue for a new era of GOP dominance in the Old North State.
Strong leadership is essential for a winning political organization. Without strong leaders, party factions will turn on each other rather than stand united against the opposition.
After decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles:
- Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s; and she can’t stop the party Executive Committee from keeping the embattled state party chairman after she called for his resignation.
- Perdue’s predecessor, Gov. Easley, was so indifferent to the Democratic Party that he didn’t go to the state or national conventions … or speak to the NAACP state convention.
- Democrats have lost the decisive influence of Eastern NC because they do not have an Eastern NC candidate in the governor’s race like they’ve had for decades: Jim Hunt, D-Wilson; Mike Easley, D-Brunswick; Beverly Perdue, D-Craven.
- Eastern NC Christian social conservative Democrats, black and white, are disappointed with the party leadership’s stand against Amendment One (Obama, Perdue, Dalton).
- Eastern NC Democratic influence in the General Assembly collapsed with the end of the era of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, and with the resignation of Majority Leader Sen. Tony Rand, D-Cumberland. Contributing to the decline was the retirement of powerful insiders like Sen. R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, President of the Senate Caucus; Charlie Albertson, D-Duplin, Agriculture Committee Chairman; and with the loss of Appropriations Committee Co-Chair A.B. Swindell (D-Nash).
Furthermore, Democrats have been rocked by an era of scandal including former party leaders like Gov. Easley, Speaker Black, Agriculture Commissioner Phipps, U.S. Rep. Frank Balance, Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards, Sen. R.C. Soles, Rep. Thomas Wright, and numerous members of the staffs and campaign teams of governor’s Easley and Perdue.
North Carolina No Longer a Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
How could the Obama political organization misread North Carolina so badly?
- Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
The big mistake the Obama camp made was in thinking that Obama carried North Carolina because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Wrong. He was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
- Since 2010, Democrats have lost the majority party/majority district status in NC. And, they no longer have the leverage of political power to gain a fundraising advantage.
- Since 2010, Republicans have gained the leverage of power for a fundraising edge AND 30 Senate districts likely to elect a Republican to only 18 for the Democrats. Republicans only need 26 to keep their majority in the Senate. There are 70 GOP-friendly House districts to only 42 for the Democrats. Republicans need 61 to keep their majority.
- The Republican advantage in the 13 congressional districts has grown from 7 to 10.
The lack of strong Democratic leaders in North Carolina gives the Obama camp no other choice but to begin to discretely redirect the campaign’s North Carolina resources to greener pastures.
Republican Leaders Strengthen; GOP Base Solidifies Over Amendment One
Concurrent with the collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Democratic Party has been the rise a strong leadership infrastructure of the North Carolina Republican Party. Those who led the successful battle in 2010, like Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger from Eden and Majority Leader Harry Brown from Jacksonville, along with Speaker Thom Tillis from Huntersville and Majority Leader Skip Stam from Apex on the House side, now wield the political power over the state budget.
Legislative leaders, along with party chairman Robin Hayes and an exceptionally talented team of political professionals, are the new best and brightest in North Carolina political circles.
In the past, disunity has kept Republicans in North Carolina from taking advantage of opportunities. The 61% to 39% rout on the Amendment One campaign was a galvanizing experience for state Republicans, leading to my analysis in The News & Observer May 9:
At a time of economic crisis it was politically risky for Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly to initiate a statewide constitutional vote on a social issue like the Marriage Amendment. However, thanks to their landslide victory on May 8, the state GOP will now enjoy a win-win of the highest order. They win the loyalty and enthusiastic support of their elated social and religious conservatives, and they neutralized the issue as fodder for Democrats in the General Election. By this fall, the Marriage Amendment controversy will be old news to just about everyone except those elated social and religions conservatives. Their victory will continue to motivate them all year to do the hard work of winning campaigns for conservatives.
Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity is what leads me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
July 4 Discount 20% … Premium Annual Subscription now only $196
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
When Trustworthiness is an Unreasonable Expectation for Leaders, the Skill Set for the Most Important Problems becomes the Standard “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.” Allegedly by Mitt Romney, Presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee Post: Tuesday, May 1, 2012 Vol. V, No. 15 3:13 pm I
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When Trustworthiness is an Unreasonable Expectation for Leaders, the Skill Set for the Most Important Problems becomes the Standard
“Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”
Allegedly by Mitt Romney, Presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee
Post: Tuesday, May 1, 2012 Vol. V, No. 15 3:13 pm
I heard that Mitt Romney ended his speech last weekend to a group of the GOP faithful by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.” That bit of humor reveals Romney’s biggest problem among fiscal conservatives: you can’t trust him to be the conservative he now claims to be; too much history of flip-flopping to the contrary.
During the last decade, the nation trusted Republicans with all of the power and they let us down. Under Republican President George W. Bush, and a Republican congress led by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) and U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Republicans spent money like crazed liberal Democrats and started The Great Recession that cost us 8.5 million jobs and brought our country to the brink of bankruptcy.
Who can be trusted? Is trustworthiness too much to expect in our political leaders?
In the fall of 2008, there was only one other option on the ballot: the Democrats. So, we put them in charge with great hope for change in Washington and a restoration of our country’s financial integrity. Well, that turned out to be the proverbial fox guarding the henhouse.
Now we are stuck: do we keep the big spending liberals in power who have not figured out how to get us back on our own two feet or do we put the big spending conservatives in power who knocked us off our feet in the first place?
Have we forgotten that during the administration of Republican President George W. Bush we went from a budget surplus to a national debt of $4.9 trillion? Have we forgotten that the banking crisis, subprime mortgages crisis, real estate crisis, Wall Street meltdown, bank bailouts, auto manufacturing crisis, and The Great Recession happened on the Republican watch?
So, how about trustworthiness? Who can I trust to do the right thing by the country?
Unfortunately, that’s like asking, who is more trustworthy to do the right thing: the Republicans in the U.S. House or the Democrats in the U.S. Senate? Got the picture? Trustworthiness is an unreasonable expectation for elected officials. Both have proven themselves untrustworthy.
Political Math: Obama’s Job Approval is High because Bush’s was so Low
Last week, Gallup’s job approval number for Barack Obama’s was 50%. Per Gallup, his average for April was 47%. President Bush had a job approval of 25% in the fall of 2008.
I am persuaded that the ONLY reason President Obama has sustained a near-50% job approval in the midst of high unemployment and a debilitating sovereign debt crisis is a fear of giving the country back to the Bush team.
The Bush team is the Albatross around Romney’s neck. That’s why Jeb Bush, arguably the most competent and level-headed Republican on the American political stage today, cannot be seriously considered as Vice President. Wrong last name. Who would want a third Bush term?
The only way that President George W. Bush had such a historic low 25% job approval is that Republican voters in 2008 agreed with Democrats and Independents that Bush and his team were responsible for the economic crisis and could no longer be trusted to manage the country.
Why would we put that group back in charge? When President Bush was sworn in on January 21, 2001, Gallup polling showed that only 22% of Americans thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic. When President Obama was sworn in on January 20, 2009, Gallup polling showed that the number of Americans who thought that the most important problems facing the country were economic and grown to 86%.
That’s why Romney must distance himself from all things Bush.
Republicans and Democrats have Different Priorities/Worries
So, what are the most important problems of the day? According to Gallup, the only replies with a 10%-or-greater group of voters to the question, “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? are:
- Economy in general 32%
- Unemployment/Jobs 25%
- Dissatisfaction with Government 12%
- Federal budget deficit/debt 11%
All other problems are single-digit numbers. Only 9% said health care was the most important problem; only 8% named Fuel/Oil Prices as the most important problem; 5% said Education; 2% said Taxes; 2% said Immigration/Illegal Aliens; 2% said War; 1% said National Security; 1% said Crime/Violence; 1% said Abortion.
So, which one of the two candidates likely to face off in this fall’s presidential contest has the skill set to take on the most important problems of the day?
It all comes down to the skills to deal with the most important problems of the day, and, with few exceptions, that comes down to your party affiliation. A March 28, 2012 study by Gallup shows a distinct difference in how Democrats and Republicans answered the “most important problem” question.
- 84% of Republicans said Federal Spending/Budget Deficit was an issue that worried them “a great deal.” Only 42% of Democrats agreed.
- 71% of Republicans said Size and Power of the Federal Government worried them “a great deal.” Only 31% of Democrats agreed.
- 46% of Republicans said Availability/Affordability of Health Care worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 69% of Democrats were worried about health care.
- 34% of Republicans said Hunger and homelessness worried them “a great deal,” whereas, 53% of Democrats were worried about the poor.
Look at where Democrats, Republicans … and Independents Agree
The political value of the Gallup study is not just in seeing where the parties disagree, it’s in seeing where they agree:
- Both parties are highly worried about the Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment
- Neither party is highly worried about Crime, Drugs, Environment, Terrorism, Race Issues
But perhaps the greatest political value of the Gallup study is in seeing where Independent voters come down on the issues that both parties see as important.
- Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Federal Spending/Budget Deficit issue (56%) as Republicans (84%), although more concerned than Democrats (42%).
- Independent voters are not nearly as worried about the Size and Power of the Federal Government issue (40%) as Republicans (71%), although more concerned than Democrats (31%).
- Economy, Gas Prices and Unemployment are important to all three groups.
- Independent voters are more worried about the Availability/Affordability of Health Care issue (61%) than Republicans (46 %), much closer to the Democrats (69%).
Bottom line, since voters do not trust either party anymore, the 2012 winners will be those who make the best case that they have the skill set to deal with the issues relating to the Economy, Unemployment and Gas Prices. And, the winners of the all-important Independent vote will be those who can add Availability/Affordability of Healthcare to their list of core competencies.
It strikes me that as of today, May 1, 2012, presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney has the perfect skill set for the problems of the day provided he’s willing to flip-flop one more time and take credit for being the architect of Obamacare, to lock in the Independent vote, and provided he joins the American majority in its fear and loathing of a third Bush term by distancing himself from anyone associated with the Bush administration.
That should not be a stretch for a pathological flip-flopper who allegedly ended his speech last weekend by saying, “Those are my views, and if you don’t like them, well then, I’ll change them.”
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. You can subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 3071
4, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/JDavis-LateBreakingTrends081810.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends – August 18, 2010] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans President Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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Advantage Democrats
Advantage RepublicansPresident Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing the country. Gallup, 8/17/2010
Post: August 18, 2010, by John Davis
NEW TRACKING CHARTS: If you take a look at the bottom of today’s Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts, you will see that I have added a graph at the bottom of the page. This graph will be used to plot the partisan political advantage trend line all the way from this week to Election Day. After two election cycles with the momentum favoring Democrats, the numbers now show a solid momentum advantage for Republicans leading up to the all-important Labor Day kick-off of the General Election season.
Republican state Senate candidates, with an 8-point momentum advantage, fair slightly better than their state House counterparts because the Senate GOP Caucus has been more successful in raising early money. Mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections show a virtual dead-heat in the total Cash-on-Hand of all Senate Republican and Democratic candidates. Democrats reported $2.5 million Cash-on-Hand; Republicans reported $2.4 million. On the House side, Democrats reported $3.3 million Cash-on-Hand; Republicans reported $1.3 million. The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation has done an excellent summary of the mid-year finance reporting by legislative candidates.[i] You can review it on their website: www.ncfef.org.
For many election cycles, the three-to-one … four-to-one … five-to-one disparities in campaign funding has helped Democrats win the close races … races that ultimately decided the majority in the state Senate and House. Here are a couple of good examples from 2008:
- Sen. Julia Bozeman, a New Hanover County Democrat, spent $871,539 to win 52% of the vote against her GOP challenger who spent only $250,075 … in a Democratic-friendly year that saw record-breaking new registrations and turnout for Democrats. The Democratic Party gave Bozeman $555,475. The Republican Party contributed only $77,500 to their candidate. This year is a Republican friendly year. The seat, once held by GOP Sen. Patrick Ballantine, is open … meaning all advantages of incumbency are lost … and the money is even. Civitas gives this district a GOP-friendly R+3 on it’s NC Partisan Index.[ii]
- Sen. Toni Foriest, an Alamance County Democrat, spent $647,293 to win 52% of the vote against his GOP challenger who spent only $173,152 … in a Democratic friendly year that saw record-breaking new registrations and turnout for Democrats. This is a Republican friendly year, the money is even, and the seat was held by GOP Sen. Hugh Webster for six terms. Civitas gives this district and R+3 on it’s NC Partisan Index
So, as you can see, this election year things are quite different. No one has ever seen Senate Republicans even with Democrats in any fundraising category. And, it has been more than a decade since House Republicans were as well organized and poised to exploit their momentum advantage and close the funding gap. Add the fact that Republicans are working together to defeat Democrats rather than each other, and you can readily see that something is quite different this year in the politics of the Ole North State. Perhaps, just perhaps, we are seeing the makings of a powerful Republican political war machine that will rival the national model war machine build by North Carolina Democrats.
Yesterday, the GOP momentum advantage increased with the release of new polling information from the Gallup organization. Here are the highlights:
- Generic Congressional Ballot Favors GOP: “GOP shows strongest positioning yet in 2010 votes cast,” reads the headline of Gallup’s latest release of congressional generic ballot results. The national survey of registered voters asked: If the election for congress were held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican? Republicans, who were favored by only 43% in mid July, now enjoy a 50% to 43% advantage among US registered voters.
- Obama’s Job Approval at Historic Low: President Obama’s job approval reached a new weekly average low, with only 44% of American voters approving of how the president is managing the country
- Party ID Tied: Another trend that does not bode well for Democrats is the loss of advantage with the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats rather than Republicans. In January, Democrats had a 45% to 40% advantage. Today, both parties are tied with 42% each.
- Independent Voters Trending Republican: One of the most startling findings by Gallup thus far in August is that Independent voters in the country are far more inclined to vote for Republicans for Congress this year than for Democrats. Republicans received a 47% thumbs up; Democrats only 34%. Thirteen points is a major disparity.
- Voter Enthusiasm Trending Republican: But perhaps the most startling finding by Gallup deals with the enthusiasm among the Republicans and Democrats about voting this fall. Among Republicans, 44% say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall. Among Democrats, a dismal 28% say they are “very enthusiastic.”
So, there you have it, a Republican-friendly fall in the making based in the Late Breaking Trends … found only in the John Davis Political Report. Remember, take a look at the bottom of today’s Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts so that you can see the new graph for tracking how the partisan political advantage changes between now and Election Day.
Thanks for reading … and listening … to the John Davis Political Report.
[i] http://ncfef.org/NCFEF_News/Entries/2010/8/12_Campaign_Finance_Reports__Analyzing_State_Parties_Coffers.html
[ii] http://www.nccivitas.org/n-c-partisan-index-state-senate-districts
“Hunt criticized the Democratic controlled General Assembly for raising taxes in 1991 during the recession, saying the budgetary shortfall was ‘sheer government mismanagement.’”[i] Rob Christensen, News & Observer, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics Twenty-five years ago, in Washington DC, U.S. Senator Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican, was beginning his third term in the
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“Hunt criticized the Democratic controlled General Assembly for raising taxes in 1991 during the recession, saying the budgetary shortfall was ‘sheer government mismanagement.’”[i] Rob Christensen, News & Observer, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
Twenty-five years ago, in Washington DC, U.S. Senator Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican, was beginning his third term in the world’s greatest deliberative body.
In Raleigh, former two-term Governor Jim Hunt, a Democrat, was returning to the practice of law. He had lost to Helms in the 1984 epic battle of political titans in the US Senate race. Hunt was all washed up; a mere single-entry footnote in the annals of state political history. Wrong.
Jim Hunt, today’s patriarch of the North Carolina Democratic Party, went on to serve a third and fourth term as Governor, a first since 1776. He achieved an extraordinary and unprecedented list of accomplishments … not the least of which was the exalted partisan political triumph of becoming the state Republican Party’s worst nightmare of the past two-and-a-half decades.
As News & Observer political writer Rob Christensen pointed out in his book, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics, “Hunt kept the Democratic Party from going under during a Republican tide by his political skills, ideological nimbleness, and the fact that he never stopped working.”[ii]
Jim Hunt has become the Michael Jordan, the David Thompson, and the Christian Laettner of modern-day North Carolina politics … that player that is simply better than everyone else on the court. You know the one … the one with the most wins.
This report examines the teachable personal qualities of Jim Hunt, such as “ideological nimbleness” and work ethic, along with the political skills that have made Jim Hunt the extraordinary winner that he has become. What if Hunt had gone to Washington DC in 1985 and Helms had stayed in North Carolina? Is there a Republican Jim Hunt?
Continue reading »
Part III: Liabilities 7-8 “Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[i] W. David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, The Destruction of the Great American Dream This is Part III in a series of reports suggesting that the
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Part III: Liabilities 7-8
“Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[i]
W. David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, The Destruction of the Great American Dream
This is Part III in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
Forbes.com carried an editorial on April 26, 2010, titled, The Real Reason for Toyota’s Troubles, in which Kenneth Brill, founder of the Uptime Institute, hypothesized that the random catastrophic failure of Toyota’s acceleration systems was most likely the result of multiple and perhaps unrelated interacting causes. “At least five and as many as ten things must interact to produce the failure of a well-designed system,” said Brill, “Any one thing by itself will cause a problem but not a catastrophic event.”
What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that there are ten political liabilities unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of the Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to a Loss of Market Share would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
In Parts I and II of the series, I wrote about liabilities including:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
Here are liabilities 7 and 8:
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
Wednesday, Gallup announced that so far in 2010, an average of only 23% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. The 2010 average is “well below the 40% historical average” over the past 30 years, and is the “lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.”[ii]
To put this percentage in perspective, the all-time high was 71% in February, 1999, when we were enjoying the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. The all-time low was 7% in October 2008, leading to catastrophic losses for the “ins”: Republicans.
The dissatisfaction sweeping the county first became apparent last summer with TV news footage of awkward and embarrassed incumbents taken aback by the ire of finger-wagging-in-your-face constituents at Town Hall Meetings. The political significance of the dissatisfaction played out with upsets in the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey, and with the shocking upset election of Republican Scott Brown in former Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat.
In April, another key antiestablishment signal came with the stunning turnabout in the U.S. Senate GOP primary race in Florida, where incumbent GOP Gov. Charlie Crist dropped out to run as an Independent because the more conservative GOP candidate had a 2-to-1 advantage.
Last week, we saw the antiestablishment ouster of incumbents like Republican Bob Bennett in Utah and West Virginia Democrat Allan Mollohan. This week we saw the antiestablishment overthrow of Pennsylvania’s Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, along with the big Tea Party antiestablishment upset in Kentucky as Rand Paul was elected GOP Senate nominee despite Republican Party establishment opposition.
In Arkansas, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln was forced into a primary runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter as the antiestablishment/anti-Washington virus spread west of the Mississippi, reinforcing the meaning of the state’s motto, “Regnat Populus,” meaning “The People Rule.”
David Stedman, Ret. Chmn., Stedman Corporation, Asheboro, writes in his latest book, The Destruction of the Great American Dream, “Our first job is to vote out all politicians, local, state and federal, who work against the founding philosophy and principals of our country.”[iii] Based on what voters have done since last summer, it looks like a lot of folks read his book!
Just like Republicans, who were in trouble in North Carolina when satisfaction with the direction of the country was low in 2008, Democrats in North Carolina are in trouble with low satisfaction with the direction of the country in 2010 … the “lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.”v]
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
Imagine a parade without a leader; a parade that simply forms in the street and grows in number as people come out of their kitchens and backyards and join those already on the march. That’s what’s happening in American politics today. Pundits and party pros snobbishly criticize the lack of organization of groups like the Tea Party movement, in denial that these folks are a bottom up parade of angry citizens who are using the Internet rather than the party as a means of communicating with each other and turning out their like-minded voters.
In a Politico story yesterday titled, Activists seize control of politics, Jim Vande Hei wrote, “The old structures that protected incumbent power are weakening. New structures, from partisan news outlets to online social networks, are giving anti-establishment politicians access to two essential elements of effective campaigns: publicity and financial support.”[v]
Take a look at the following political ad for Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture. This is a great example of the power of the internet as an equalizer to traditional party communications advantages:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0&NR=1
This ad has been posted for one day and has been seen by 818,244 people … including you. Cost to the candidate for those 818,244 views? $0. This guy is going to win without the party.
Even the most liberal sources acknowledge the Internet as a means to bypass the traditional party infrastructures and win campaigns. This week, Markos Moulitsas of the liberal Daily Kos said, “The old structures have been eroding, … we’re building a world in which people can bypass their parties’ institutional forces and make up their own minds on who to support.”
On Tuesday, Gallup unveiled a new national poll on enthusiasm in which they concluded, “Conservatives are significantly more enthusiastic about voting in this fall’s congressional elections than are liberals or moderates. Those who say they are “very” conservative are the most enthusiastic of all.”
Experts have concluded that catastrophic failure of Toyota’s acceleration systems was most likely the result of multiple causes happening at the same time. What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that there are 10 political liabilities unfolding at the same time, not the least of which are the historic low level of satisfaction with the direction of the country and the high level of enthusiasm for voting among conservatives.
[i] The Destruction of the Great American Dream, W. David Stedman, Published 2009; Pg. 37
[ii] Gallup, May 19, 2010; http://www.gallup.com/poll; Satisfaction with U.S. Historically Low for Midterm Year
[iii] The Destruction of the Great American Dream, W. David Stedman, Published 2009; Pg. 37
[iv] Gallup, May 19, 2010; http://www.gallup.com/poll; Satisfaction with U.S. Historically Low for Midterm Year
[v] http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37468.html#ixzz0oOWBrAJG
Part II: Liabilities 5 – 6 NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans. This is Part II in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much
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Part II: Liabilities 5 – 6
NC Republicans do not have to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats to seize power in 2010 if Democrats lower their political bar closer to that of Republicans.
This is Part II in a series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company. They are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
Last Tuesday, May 4, the Associated Press reported that a U.S. Senate committee was recommending a major overhaul to the nation’s auto safety requirements following Toyota’s recalls involving 8 million cars and trucks. Toyota was forced to pay a record fine for failing to disclose a safety defect with sticking gas pedals in a timely manner, and is currently facing an estimated $4 billion in personal injury/wrongful death lawsuits.[i]
On Monday, the AP reported that Toyota spent a record $2,498 per vehicle on incentives in March, a 53% increase over last year. [ii] Toyota is minimizing brand damage caused by faulty gas pedals and brakes the same way the state Democratic Party minimizes brand damage caused by sloppy standards and corrupt leaders: by spending a lot of money on spin control.
In Part I of the series, I wrote about:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
Here are political liabilities 5 – 6:
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker like Perdue the Ethics Governor
I was sitting at the kitchen table Tuesday morning reading a story in the News & Observer about yet another NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) investigation into Toyota’s failure to report problems with defective steering rods,[iii] when a Toyota ad came on the television. The carmaker was extolling its commitment to safety. Ironically, the N&O also carried a story Tuesday about Gov. Perdue extolling her commitment to ethics reform.
If you are committed to ethics reform, you really should do something besides just claim to be for ethics reform. And, if you are going to make speeches around the state decrying the evils of “smoke-filled rooms,” “pay-to-play” politics and “back room dealing,” you certainly don’t hire people like … ummmmm, well, to quote Gov. Perdue, “I don’t have to give any examples. I don’t have to call any names.”[iv] (Actually, I was going to name former state Senator Tony “Back Room Deal” Rand, who served as Chairman of the Rules Committee and Majority Leader in the Senate until last year, but thought better of it.) Second thought:
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“Americans’ favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18 year history of this measure.”[i] USA Today/Gallup poll, April 8, 2010 Archbishop Desmond Tutu, winner of Nobel Peace Prize for his work to end apartheid in South Africa, told the following story when he spoke
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“Americans’ favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18 year history of this measure.”[i] USA Today/Gallup poll, April 8, 2010
Archbishop Desmond Tutu, winner of Nobel Peace Prize for his work to end apartheid in South Africa, told the following story when he spoke last May at the graduation
ceremonies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill: A traveler walking through the countryside stopped to admire a beautiful field of corn. He said to the farmer, “My, you and God have surely created a beautiful field of corn.” The farmer thanked the traveler and then said, “You should have seen it when God had it by Himself.”
Tutu built his entire commencement address on the notion that no problem is ever going to be solved unless someone steps up and does the hard work. “God allowed apartheid,” he said, “Apartheid was not ended by God. It was ended by His helpers.”
This year, we are faced with many great challenges … especially economic. However, the emerging greatest challenge is leadership … deciding whose ideas we are going to trust with the problems of the day. Ultimately, the ideas instituted will be those advocated by citizens who step up and do the hard work of winning campaigns. In 2008, it was the Obama camp. Today, it’s the Tea Party folks who are stepping up. These folks are tea’d. They are sick and tired of politicians pushing artificial sweetener on them in the form of government programs.
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“Republican candidates who win independents will take the oath of office — period.”1 — Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies I am stunned. How is it possible that the fortunes of the Democratic Party could plummet so far so fast? One year ago they were enjoying the spoils of victory after riding the
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“Republican candidates who win independents will take the oath of office — period.”1 — Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies
I am stunned. How is it possible that the fortunes of the Democratic Party could plummet so far so fast? One year ago they were enjoying the spoils of victory after riding the crest of an anti-establishment wave created by the Bush administration’s low approval ratings and the inspirational candidacy of Barack Obama and his message of “change we can believe in.” For the first time in 40 years, they claimed the state’s top three political prizes in the same election year, President, U.S. Senator and Governor, and held a majority in both houses of the legislature.
Now, it’s the Democrats flailing about in a stormy sea of angry voters and in danger of losing many of the partisan advantages they gained in 2008. It’s the Democratic brand that’s tarnished.
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“I am a life-long Independent, registered Unaffiliated, and consider myself a radical moderate.” -John Davis, John Davis Political Report A Letter to Rob Christensen, Political Reporter, The News & Observer Note: Today’s N&O carried a front page story titled, Perdue: SEANC speaks for state workers. In the story, political reporter Rob Christensen quoted me in writing,
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“I am a life-long Independent, registered Unaffiliated, and consider myself a radical moderate.” -John Davis, John Davis Political Report
A Letter to Rob Christensen, Political Reporter, The News & Observer
Note: Today’s N&O carried a front page story titled, Perdue: SEANC speaks for state workers. In the story, political reporter Rob Christensen quoted me in writing, “Very clearly this state is moving toward unionization of public employees and collective bargaining rights,” said Davis, a pro-business Republican. What follows is my reply to Rob, a seasoned political writer who I respect very much, correcting his characterization of me as a “pro-business Republican,” followed by a defense of radical moderation, and the need for a balanced, two-party state.
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