John Davis Consulting

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-HOUSE-UPDATE.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC HOUSE UPDATE]

“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010

NOTE:  See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily graphics above.

Investors Political Daily

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64

Post:  October 28, 2010 (Friday, October 29, 2010 UPDATE)

NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly.  All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.

Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will see that Tom Murry, Morrisville Town Councilman and Republican nominee in Wake County House District 41, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Chris Heagarty, D-Wake.

Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.

UPDATED FRIDAY, OCT. 29:  According to a new SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 25-26 for the Civitas Institute, “Republican candidate Johnny Dawkins is maintaining his lead over Democratic Rep. Diane Parfitt in the state House District 44 race – comprised of Cumberland County.

Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Dawkins if the election for state representative were today.  Forty-four percent said they would vote for Parfitt, and 7 percent are undecided.

However, among those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Dawkin’s lead increases to 56 percent-37 percent.”

The Civitas news release, dated today, Oct. 29, also noted that Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, is now trailing his GOP opponent, Jackie Warner, R-Cumberland, by 10 percent (Warner 51%; Glazier 41%).  Warner is the wife of former Rep. Alex Warner.

This race has been moved to “toss up” on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House report.

NOTE:  All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.

Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates.  That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.

The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.

Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 12 “Favored” Democratic candidates.  That brings their likely total to 51 wins next Tuesday, 53 if they split the 5 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.

GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written Wednesday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer.  The headline read:  N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats

Here are the highlights:

·       Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October

·       Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections

·       Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008

·       Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006

Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage.  That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts.  Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.

Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool

Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics.  You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district.  It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina.  Click here to try it out.

Well, there you have it.  Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Please consider subscribing.

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-Senate.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC Senate]

“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010

NOTE:  See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily report graphics above.

Investors Political Daily

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

Final NC Senate Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 29

Post:  October 29, 2010

No changes since last week’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate report, which showed the NC Senate Republican Caucus with a likely majority of 29 senators.  All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.

Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 11 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 7 “Favored” GOP candidates.  That brings their likely total to 29 wins next Tuesday, with a possibility of 30 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.

The majority party needs only 26 seats in the 50-member Senate to rule.

NOTE:  All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.

Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have only 1 candidate with NO OPPOSITION, 16 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 1 “Favored” Democratic candidates.  That brings their likely total to 18 wins next Tuesday, 20 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.

GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy an 18-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

The Big Differences between 2008 and 2010: The big differences in Senate races this year are money, momentum and leadership:

• The Senate Democratic Caucus’ national model political war machine fall apart with a half-dozen key retirements, especially the loss of the old war general Tony Rand.
• The Senate Republican Caucus has grown exponentially in strength and effectiveness in all areas of campaign fundamentals this cycle, from recruiting and fundraising to strategic planning and united leadership.
• Republicans have the political momentum advantage.
• Republicans have neutralized the one advantage that Democrats have always managed to dominate and parlay into winning the majority: money.
• Democratic scandals, involving Senators and caucus alums including Tony Rand, R.C. Soles and Gov. Beverly Perdue, have been a major distraction.
• Governor Perdue is a drag on all Democratic candidates with her dismal 21% “Favorable” rating.
• The big money corporate folks are hedging their bets and helping Republicans big time.

Biggest Political Story of the General Election:  The biggest political story of the entire general election was written yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer.  The headline read:  N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats

Here are the highlights:

• Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
• Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
• Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
• Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006

Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage.  That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts.  Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.

Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool

Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics.  You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district.  It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina.  Click here to try it out.

Well, there you have it.  Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Please consider subscribing.

“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010

NOTE:  View all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily chart above.

Investors Political Daily

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64

Post:  October 28, 2010

NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly.  All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.

Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will see that Tom Murry, Morrisville Town Councilman and Republican nominee in Wake County House District 41, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Chris Heagarty, D-Wake.

Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.

NOTE:  All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.

Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates.  That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.

The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.

Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” Democratic candidates.  That brings their likely total to 52 wins next Tuesday, 54 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.

GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was writing yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer.  The headline read:  N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats

Here are the highlights:

·       Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October

·       Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections

·       Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008

·       Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006

Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage.  That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts.  Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.

Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool

Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics.  You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district.  It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina.  Click here to try it out.

Well, there you have it.  Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Please consider subscribing.

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-19.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 19]

“Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men among early voters since last Thursday.

Post: October 19, 2010, by John Davis

NOTE:  View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.

Investors Political Daily

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

NC House GOP Likely to Win 62 Seats; Final Count Likely a 65/55 GOP Majority

Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House chart and you will see for the first time that the North Carolina House Republican Caucus now has 62 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today.  Democrats have 52 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today.

If the two parties split the 6 toss-up races, the final count will be 65 Republicans in the North Carolina House, 55 Democrats.

The two changes on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House charts are:

• House District 116: This Buncombe County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Jane Whilden against GOP challenger Tim Moffitt, has been moved from “Toss up” to Moffitt “Favored.”  The move was based on new polling released Monday, the voting history of the district (held for six terms by Republican Rep. Wilma Sherrill), and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.

• House District 9: This Pitt County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Marian McLawhorn against GOP challenger Stan Larson, has now been moved from McLawhorn “Favored” to a “Toss-up.”  The move was based on recent polling that showed McLawhorn trailing her Republican opponent outside the margin of error, and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.

What the 55 State Legislative Polls Say: A historic number of state legislative polls have been conducted this election cycle: 23 Senate races; 32 House races.  Here is the consistent pattern:

• There is greater enthusiasm among Republicans for Republican candidates than among Democrats for Democratic candidates
• Unaffiliated and self-described independent voters are breaking 2-to-1 Republican
• Republicans are consistently shown to be the most likely to vote by far in 2010
• There is a universal dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation and the “Job Approval” of those with power in Washington and Raleigh … all Democrats.

Thanks to the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, all of the 55 legislative poll results can be seen by linking to the NCFEF Poll Tracker report.

Most of the polling has been done by Civitas and the Carolina Strategy Group.  Check out the Civitas polls here. Check out the Carolina Strategy Group polls here.

Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a 12-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

NC Senate GOP Likely to Win 29 Seats; Final Count Likely a 30/20 GOP Majority

The change on today’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate chart is in Senate District 116, a Pitt, Wayne, Green County race pitting incumbent Democrat Don Davis against GOP challenger Rep. Louis Pate.  The race has been moved from “Toss up” to Pate “Favored.”

The move was based on these facts:

• Davis won by only 53% of the vote in 2008, in one of the most Democratic-dominated turnout of voters in modern political history in North Carolina … driven by a year-long commitment of resources by the Obama campaign.  Without the historic voter registration and turnout machine of 2008, Davis cannot win.
• Davis is from Green County, which has less than 10% of the district’s voters.  Pate is from Wayne County, which, along with Pitt County, split the lion’s share of the voters in the district.
• As of the first three days of early voting, Wayne County is in the top 10 counties in the state for early voting of white Republican men.

Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy a 16-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

White Republican Men Lead Record Pace of Early Voting was the headline of yesterday’s Democracy North Carolina press release, reporting the results of the first three days of early voting.  “Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men.

What caused the dramatic shift in political fortunes?  An economy in crisis was the driving force in 2008; the economy is the driving force in 2010.

In 2008, we were disappointed with our leaders in Washington, especially Republicans, and we made our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box.  In 2010, we are again disappointed with our leaders, who happen to be Democrats both in Washington and Raleigh.  You can count on us to make our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box throughout early voting and on Election Day.

The Democrats are in trouble for exactly the same reasons that got the Republicans in hot water during the past two election cycles.  They have failed to make the case that they can govern better.

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Timing also has a lot to do with who wins campaigns.  In 2010, timing favors Republicans.

Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool

Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics.  You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district.  It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina.  Click here to try it out.

Well, there you have it.  Investors Political Daily, October 19, 2010.

Republicans can count on 62 seats in the 120-member NC House, 65 if the “toss-up” races split.

Republicans can count on 29 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-12.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 12]

If Obama voters didn’t turn out for Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, or for the Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, why would they turn out for Tony Foriest’s seat in the NC Senate? As it turns out, Obama voters were inspired by Obama … not by the Democratic Party.”  Investors Political Daily, October 12, 2010

Post: October 12, 2010, by John Davis

NOTE:  View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates

“Republicans continue to hold a 50-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That’s fueled mainly by a 50-27 advantage with independents and an incredible degree of GOP unity. While 17% of Democrats say they’re planning to support Republican candidates this fall, only 2% of Republicans say they’ll go back in the other direction and vote Democratic.” Public Policy Polling, October 1, 2010

Post: October 4, 2010, by John Davis

NOTE:  View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.

Well, there you have it.  October 4, 2010.  According to Investors Political Daily, the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in both the NC Senate and House in November.

Don’t forget, the John Davis Political Report is now accessible only with a username and password.  I hope that you will choose to stay on top of the Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following four levels of subscription:

Trial Subscription                          $4.85                    Two Weeks

Individual Subscription                 $48.50                  Annual                 Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                   $485.00                Annual                 Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription                $4850.00              Annual                 Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe today.

And as always, thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report!

SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small Business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates

“A June 23, 1999, affidavit from then Assistant District Attorney Gerald W. Wilson, 24th Prosecutorial District [Watauga County], states that there was no evidence that Newton [A.B. Swindell’s Republican challenger] was involved in the possession, use or sale of drugs.” Rocky Mount Telegram, September 23, 2010

Post: September 23, 2010, by John Davis

In 2008, I knew that US Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-NC, was losing her race for another term when she ran the now infamous “Godless” ad against her Democratic opponent Kay Hagan, tying her to a group called the Godless Americans PAC.  The ad included a female voice saying, “There is no God.”  Hagan is a life-long Presbyterian; a former Sunday school teacher.

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

In 2008, I knew that state Treasurer Richard Moore, D-Vance, was losing his race with Beverly Perdue for the Democratic nomination for governor when he ran ads suggesting that Perdue was soft on the KKK.

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

Today’s Rocky Mount Telegram carries a story by Geoffrey Cooper about a political attack flyer mailed last week by A.B. Swindell, D-Nash, featuring a picture of cocaine and a record of felony drug charges against Buck Newton, his GOP opponent, that the Watauga County DA’s office says were a matter of mistaken identity.  There was never an arrest.

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

According to the Rocky Mount Telegram story, the flyer “depicts a police officer and several marked vehicles with flashing lights. The brochure also includes images of lines of cocaine on a mirror and scanned public records that show Newton’s full name and suggest that he was arrested and charged with eight felony drug counts.”

“A June 23, 1999, affidavit from then Assistant District Attorney Gerald W. Wilson, 24th Prosecutorial District, states that there was no evidence that Newton was involved in the possession, use or sale of drugs. The drug charges originally were brought against Newton as a result of an undercover operation carried out by Boone police officers.”

The affidavit also states that the “undercover police officer [who was responsible for the mistaken identity] was relieved of his duties shortly after the events.”

Swindell told the Rocky Mount Telegram “that he will continue to back the public records that have been presented in his campaign brochures.”

Perhaps Sen. Swindell needs to back the public affidavit dated June 23, 1999, from then Assistant District Attorney Gerald W. Wilson, 24th Prosecutorial District, that state “that there was no evidence that Newton was involved in the possession, use or sale of drugs.”

Desperation is the mark of a loser.

Today’s Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard has been changed.  Sen. A.B. Swindell, D-Nash is no longer “Favored” to win.  The “Favored” status has been shifted to his opponent Buck Newton.  Republicans now have 27 races where they are likely to prevail … and they only need 26 for a majority in the 50-member NC Senate.  Add them:  “Winners” (11 Republicans face no opposition), “Likely Winners” (9 safe Republican districts), or “Favored” to win (7 Republicans have the political advantage and would win if the election were held today.)  That’s 27 races where Republicans are likely to prevail.

I have also taken A.B. Swindell off the list of “Top 10 Opportunity Races” for free-market advocates, and replaced him on that list with Buck Newton.  Newton has a legal practice in Wilson and is Chairman of the Wilson County Republican Party.  If you would like to help Newton, go to his website and click on the “Donate” button: http://www.buckforsenate.com/

Remember, all of the “Top 10 Opportunity” candidates have hotlinks to their websites on the Investors Political Daily Scoreboard. If you will let your cursor hover over the names of the candidates who are underlined in the Senate and House Investors Political Daily charts, you will see that they are now hotlinked to campaign websites.  This is to facilitate your ability to help the candidates of your choosing in the races still in play in the battle for majority in the state Senate and House.

Well, there you have it.  September 23, 2010.  According to Investors Political Daily, the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in both the NC Senate and House in November.

Don’t forget, the John Davis Political Report is now accessible only with a username and password.  I hope that you will choose to stay on top of the Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following four levels of subscription:

Trial Subscription                          $4.85                    Two Weeks

Individual Subscription                 $48.50                  Annual                 Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription                   $485.00                Annual                 Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription                $4850.00              Annual                 Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe today.

And as always, thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report!

SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small Business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates

Today’s new Senate and House Investors Political Daily Scoreboards include hotlinks to the websites of candidates in the competitive races.  This is to facilitate your ability to help candidates in races still in play in the battle for majority in the state Senate and House. Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report

Post: September 20, 2010, by John Davis

Candidates Hotlinked on Investors Political Daily Scoreboards: Today’s new Senate and House Investors Political Daily Scoreboards include hotlinks to the websites of candidates in the competitive races.  If you will let your cursor hover over the names of the candidates who are underlined in the Senate and House Investors Political Daily charts, you will see that they are now hotlinked to campaign websites.  This is to facilitate your ability to help the candidates of your choosing in the races still in play in the battle for majority in the state Senate and House.

In the Senate, only candidates in the 13 campaigns in play are hotlinked: the “5 Toss Up races,” the “2 Democrats are Favored” races, and the “6 Republicans are Favored” races.  Open the Senate Investors Political Daily Scoreboard today and go to the website of one of the candidates in a contested race and send them a contribution.

In the House, only candidates in the 30 campaigns in play are hotlinked: the “10 Toss Up races,” the “12 Democrats are Favored” races, and the “8 Republicans are Favored” races.  Open the House Investors Political Daily Scoreboard today and go to the website of one of the candidates in a contested race and give them a hand.

NC Senate and House Scoreboards: Apply the 2010 Late Breaking Trends partisan momentum factor to state legislative races and you will see the following results:  Republicans already have the 26 seats needed for a majority in the North Carolina Senate; Democrats have 19.  There are 5 seats in the tossup category.

Republicans have 59 of the 61 seats needed to have a majority in the North Carolina House of Representatives; Democrats have 51 seats.  There are 10 seats in the tossup column.

Latest developments in state Senate and House races:

• NC House Republicans now have 30 uncontested seats in their quest for a 61-seat majority.  Kevin Furr, D-Stanly, has been sent a “Notice of Termination of Active Status” from the SBOE.  Furr filed against Rep. Justin Burr, R-Stanly.
• The SBOE notice stipulates that Furr can no longer spend a penny on his campaign legally; nor can he raise a penny legally.  Regardless, Furr could not have defeated Burr in this Republican stronghold.

• In other NC House news, a new poll by the Carolina Strategy Group shows that an incumbent Alice Graham Underhill, D-Craven, is down by 15 points in her race.
• Graham’s GOP challenger, Norm Sanderson, is listed as the likely winner in the NC House Investors Political Daily report.  Take a look at the full House report here.
• Another poll released last week by the Carolina Opinion Survey firm shows that six-term incumbent Democratic Rep. Marian McLawhorn leads Republican challenger Stan Larson by 44 percent to 39 percent.  McLawhorn, from Pitt County, cannot take that lead for granted in a district where 55% of the Unaffiliated voters say they prefer a Republican to represent them in the NC House to only 19% who say they prefer a Democrat.
• McLawhorn is “Favored” to win on today’s Investors Political Daily House chart.
• On the Senate side: Democratic three-term incumbent state Sen. Joe Sam Queen, D-Haywood, is trailing in his re-election bid so says the Carolina Strategy Group.
• GOP challenger Ralph Hise, Mayor of Spruce Pine, leads 50 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll for District 47.  The district is a GOP-leaning district made up of Avery, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell and Yancey Counties, and a part of Haywood County.  Hise is “Favored” to win on today’s Investors Political Daily Senate chart.
• In Senate District 48, GOP challenger Dan Soucek leads two-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Steve Goss 48 percent to 41 percent among registered voters according to the latest Civitas/Survey USA poll.  District 45 is the most Republican district in the Senate that is held by a Democrat.  Soucek is “Favored” on the Investors Political Daily Senate chart.
• Both Goss and Soucek, a small business owner, are from Watauga County.
• And, in Senate District 9, the WILMINGTON STAR-NEWS reports that Jim Leutze, the Democratic candidate for the New Hanover County seat held by retiring Sen. Julia Boseman, will not be getting the financial support of the state Democratic Party.
• Leutze says that party leaders told him that they are helping at-risk incumbents and that they believed he could beat GOP nominee Thom Goolsby without their money.  “They said they thought I didn’t need the money as much as others did,” Leutze said Friday.

Well, there you have it.  September 20, 2010.  According to Investors Political Daily, the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in both the NC Senate and House in November.

Don’t forget, the John Davis Political Report will be accessible only with a username and password beginning tomorrow, Tuesday, Sept. 21st, 2010.  I hope that you will choose to stay on top of the Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following four levels of subscription:

Trial Subscription                       $4.85                     Two Weeks

Individual Subscription           $48.50                  Annual                 Individuals and Small Business

Premium Subscription              $485.00               Annual                 Corporations and Trade Groups

Advantage Subscription           $4850.00            Annual                 Consultation Relationship

Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe today.

And as always, thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report!

SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates

Investor’s Political Daily Scoreboard: If the election were held today, Republicans would win the 26 seats needed for the majority in the 50-member NC Senate; Democrats have 19 of the 26 Senate seats needed for the majority; there are 5 toss up seats. Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report

Post: September 14, 2010, by John Davis

Investors Political Daily Says NC Senate Majority is the Republicans to Lose

INVESTORS POLITICAL DAILY: Today, the John Davis Political Report is introducing the Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard.  Today’s report includes the Top 10 opportunity races in the Senate those looking for free-market candidates that need help.  Investors Political Daily provides you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.  Here is today’s Senate report:

ONLY 13 NC SENATE RACES IN PLAY: Out of the 50 North Carolina Senate races, only 13 are still in play.  In 8 of the 13 races in play, one of the two candidates is “favored” … but the advantage is not an “uncontestable advantage.” There are only 5 “toss up races” out of the 50 Senate races.

DEMOCRATS HAVE 19 OF 26 NEEDED FOR MAJORITY: Today’s Investors Political Daily shows that Democrats have 19 of the 26 seats needed to maintain the majority in the North Carolina Senate.  Only one Democrat has “no opposition;” 16 are “likely winners” … because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  The most common “uncontestable advantage” is the fact that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.  An additional 2 Democrats are “favored” to win, in both cases because the voters in their district are a bit more likely to favor one party over the other … but in the volatility of 2010 politics, it’s not a sure bet.

REPUBLICANS HAVE 26 OF 26 NEEDED FOR MAJORITY: Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Republicans have 26 of the 26 seats needed to gain the majority in the North Carolina Senate.  Eleven (11) Republicans have “no opposition;” 9 are “likely winners” because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  Once again, the most common “uncontestable advantage” is that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.   Six (6) Republicans are “favored” to win.

DEMOCRATS MUST WIN ALL 5 “TOSS UP” RACES: The bottom line is this:  Democrats will have to win all 5 of the “toss up races,” and win two additional races that are now more likely to elect the Republican candidate, in order to hold the majority in the North Carolina Senate.    Republicans only need to win the races where they are “likely winners” or are “favored” in order to lead the NC Senate for the first time since 1898.

OPPORTUNITY RACES: Another feature of the Investors Political Daily is the list of Top 10 Opportunity Races for free-market advocates.  They are noted with a green checkmark.

WHAT’S DIFFERENT ABOUT 2010 THAT FAVORS A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY?

• In October of 2008, Democrats had a 47% to 37% advantage on the generic ballot question, “If the election for North Carolina legislature were held today, would you be voting for the Democrat or the Republican.”
• In September of 2010, Republicans have a 49% to 41% advantage on the generic ballot question in a recent poll by the Democratic leaning polling firm, Public Policy Polling.
• Obama has no coattails in 2010 for Democratic candidates.
• Obama had 47 headquarters in North Carolina in 2008 staffed by over 400 paid field organizers. Where are the 47 headquarters and 400 paid field organizers?
• Independent voters have flipped from 2-to-1 for the Democrats to 2-to-1 for the Republicans. Independent voters helped elect new GOP governors in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a Republican to Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat.
• Obama’s all-important base of young voters, African American voters and women, are showing significantly less interest in turning out for Democrats.
• A leadership shakeup in the Democratic Party in North Carolina, driven by scandal, retirements, a Senate caucus coup, and new leadership in the state party headquarters, has weakened the party’s ability to do battle.
• Democrats now own the economy, and at best the economy is sputtering to recover.
• Republicans are better organized than ever before and are showing clear evidence of unprecedented fundraising success.  If Republicans minimize the disparity in campaign funding that has historically helped Democrats win close races, they will win much more than a simple majority of the state Senate races.

Well, there you have it.  If the election were held today, Republicans would win the 26 seats needed for the majority in the 50-member NC Senate.  Democrats would win 19 of the 26 Senate seats needed for the majority, and the parties would likely split the 5 toss up seats, giving the GOP at least a 28 to 22 ruling majority.

SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report.  I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.

The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small Business” folks at only $48.50 per year.  The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.

Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.

Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.