John Davis Consulting

Post: November 3, 2011       Vol. IV, No. 30

“The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.”

Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2, 2011

Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: GOP U.S. Presidential Ticket

Yesterday’s John Davis Political Report suggested that the Republican Presidential ticket in 2012 was likely to be Romney-Gingrich, and that President Obama may have to replace Vice President Biden with a business person, like Erskine Bowles, in order to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who has the credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.

Gingrich brings two valuable/essential political assets to the GOP ticket: staying power (he’s as tough skinned, politically savvy and as intelligent as anyone), and conservative bona fides.  No Democrat will defeat Gingrich in a Vice Presidential debate, and no Republican will spark more enthusiasm among Tea Party economic conservatives and Republican social conservatives than Gingrich.

GOP Presidential UPDATE 11/3/2011: Romney-Gingrich likely GOP Ticket

1. Romney’s seasoning will win him the nomination … as the last contender standing.
2. However, Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Tea Party support as well as the support of the most conservative Republicans … who don’t like him at all.
3. Romney: has been at 25% all year, meaning 75% of the GOP prefer someone else.
4. Newt Gingrich: will bring conservative enthusiasm to the ticket.
5. Rick Perry: will continue to implode under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush.  Fear of a third Bush term will be his doom. (Oct 2008 Bush job approval was 25%; Obama job approval today is: 45%)
6. Herman Cain: is through due in part to an inept campaign manager (thinks blowing cigarette smoke into the camera in a TV ad is politically clever) and no campaign organization (try turning out Iowa caucus voters on a cold rainy January day without a ground game).  Cain’s apparent strategy, winning the White House with a “There’s a sucker born every minute” snow job, was doomed from the start.  His poor crisis management in the face of sexual harassment allegations is confirmation of the ineptitude of his campaign manager and his not ready for prime time candidacy.
7. Ron Paul: too old at age 76 to begin an administration (Reagan oldest at 69; Wm. H. Harrison was 67); doubts about electability continue to plague the Paul camp.
8. Rick Santorum: too angry/whiny/defensive (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.8%)
9. Michelle Bachmann: too happy (Real Clear Politics polls average 3.8%); “out of money and ideas,” says Ed Rollins, Bachmann’s former campaign manager.
10. John Huntsman: Obama’s Ambassador to China (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.2%)
11. Newt Gingrich: the conservative’s conservative; great debater; staying power at the presidential level.

Gingrich will pick up Cain’s Votes in NC and US

North Carolina: Today’s Public Policy Polling survey shows GOP support for Gingrich at 22%, ahead of Romney’s 19%.  Although Cain leads the list at 30%, his days are numbered.  Gingrich will inherit most of Cain’s votes in North Carolina.

Perry has 10% among NC Republicans, Bachmann 4%, Paul 4%, Huntsman 2% and Santorum 2%.

National Republican Presidential: Although in the Real Clear Politics polling average for Gingrich runs behind Cain (26%), Romney (24%) and Perry (10%), he is more likely than Perry to pick up Cain’s votes … which will put him ahead of Perry within the month.

– END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!

John N. Davis, Editor

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