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North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections

by johndavis, September 26, 2012

North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections
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North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections

“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come.”  John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report

 Wednesday, September 26, 2012       Vol. V, No. 31      11:13 am

Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC House Forecasts

 In 2012, Republicans will win the House majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century.  Click here to see the complete list of NC House races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.

Key Conclusions:  First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership.  Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.

These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years.  Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come.

  • Winner: Has no further opposition.  Democrats 22; Republicans 25.
  • Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge).  Democrats 16; Republicans 45.
  • Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district.  Democrats 7; Republicans 5.
  • Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders.  Democrats 0; Republicans 0.

 – END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


 

Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections

by johndavis, September 25, 2012

North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections
[More…]

North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections

“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.”  John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report

 Tuesday, September 25, 2012       Vol. V, No. 30      11:13 am

Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC Senate Forecasts

In 2012, Republicans will win the Senate majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century.  Click here to see the complete list of NC Senate races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.

Key Conclusions:  First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership.  Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.

These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years.  Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.

  • Winner: Has no further opposition.  Democrats 7; Republicans 11.
  • Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge).  Democrats 9; Republicans 18.
  • Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district.  Democrats 2; Republicans 2.
  • Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders.  Democrats 1; Republicans 1.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, September 26, the John Davis Political Report will publish a forecast of all 120 NC House races.

 – END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


 

Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.

by johndavis, September 5, 2012

Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.  Tuesday, September 4, 2012       Vol. V, No. 27      5:13 pm First Generation of Leaders
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Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.

The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.

 Tuesday, September 4, 2012       Vol. V, No. 27      5:13 pm

First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898

 The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.

Collapsed.  No power.  No money.  No momentum.  No maps.  Lost it all in 2010.  Lost the state Senate.  Lost the state House of Representatives.  First time since 1898.

No political warfare generals.  The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012.  Including President Obama.

Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term.  Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008.  Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898.  A lame duck.

In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.

And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats.  McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.

In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand.  Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand.  McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall.  Dalton: $2.6 million.

The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.

September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.

The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.

That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.

 Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports

 There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results.  According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”

The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:

NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”

  • NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
  • When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”

 Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012

 Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand.  This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.

Money flows to those with power.  Democrats no longer have power.  No power, no money.  No money, no resources to do political battle.  That’s a game changing structural deficiency.

Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports.  Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.

NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party.  Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.

 North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out

 Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.

 The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic.  Fact:  Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.

Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.

  • Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
  • Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
  • Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
  • Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
  • Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.

Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.

September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.

 Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift

According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans.  That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans.  There’s more.

At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans.  That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.

For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.

Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters.  Obama volunteers.

The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama.  With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.

Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?

That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.

 – END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis, Editor


 

Premium Annual Subscription is $245.  Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.  P.S.:  Need a speaker?  Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel.  Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties.  Inquire about availability here.  JND


Precedent Arguing for a Pardon of NC Gov. William Woods Holden, who was Impeached, Convicted and Removed from Office in 1871 for Taking a Stand against the KKK

by johndavis, March 23, 2011

[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-Mar-23.mp3|titles=Audio Mar 23] “In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican State Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor.” News & Observer, March 15, 2011, story by Rob Christensen, Author of The
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-Mar-23.mp3|titles=Audio Mar 23]

“In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican State Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor.”

News & Observer, March 15, 2011, story by Rob Christensen,

Author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics

NOTE: In a departure from the usual content of my report, this is a statement about the importance of today’s consideration by the NC Senate of the pardon of Gov. W.W. Holden.

Precedent for State Atonement – Pope John Paul II Admits that the Roman Catholic Church Erred in Condemning Galileo 359 Years Ago

On October 31, 1992, Pope John Paul II acknowledged in a speech before the Pontifical Academy of Sciences that the Roman Catholic Church had wrongfully condemned Galileo 359 years earlier for asserting that the Earth revolves around the Sun.

In order to keep from being burned at the stake, Galileo (1564-1642), the father of modern science, recanted his scientific findings and spent the remainder of his life under house arrest.

In North Carolina, a mere 140 years ago, the state Senate convicted Governor W.W. Holden on six impeachment charges related to his efforts to quell violence by the Ku Klux Klan in Alamance and Caswell counties.  He was the first governor in American history to be impeached, convicted and removed from office.  The Senate is considering a pardon.

They cut the Senator’s throat and stabbed him in the heart

In a March 15 News & Observer story, political writer Rob Christensen notes that the violent acts committed by the Klan included arson, lynching and political assassination … including the assassination of a white Republican sheriff and state Senator.  “Two Klan murders were particularly high profile,” writes Christensen.  “The Klan hanged Wyatt Outlaw, the leader of the black Republicans in Alamance County, in the town square of Graham.  In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican state Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor. Twenty-one other people, black and white, in Caswell County were whipped.”

Under Holden’s orders, the state militia took control of the Alamance and Caswell county courthouses and arrested more than 100 accused Klan members.  The six charges leading to his impeachment, conviction and removal from office resulted from these actions.

The bill seeking to pardon Gov. Holden is cosponsored by Sen. Neal Hunt, a Wake County Republican, and Sen. Dan Blue, a Wake County Democrat.  Three of North Carolina’s former governors, Democrat Jim Hunt and Republicans Jim Martin and Jim Holshouser, have written legislative leaders in support of the pardon.

Precedent for Acts of State Atonement

In the late 1990s, I was researching the political implications of the coming of a new millennium.  Although ultimately the longest period of economic expansion in US history drove the politics of the millennium era, I did discover an unusual phenomenon: worldwide acts of atonement.

Throughout the final decade of the last millennium, countries throughout the world sought to begin the new millennium with a clean slate by admitting to their past wrongs.  The acknowledgment by Pope John Paul II that the Roman Catholic Church had wrongfully condemned Galileo 359 years earlier for asserting that the Earth revolves around the Sun is an example of what I found.  Here are a few others:

  • Jan 19, 1998 – Ottawa apologized for its role in running aboriginal residential schools, which have become notorious for the sexual and physical abuse inflicted upon native children. The long-awaited apology brought back painful memories among Canada’s 1.3 million aboriginals.
  • December 29, 1998 – Two top Khmer Rouge leaders issued the first public apology for their role in the deaths of 1.7 million Cambodians during the “killing fields” of the 1970s.  Khmer Rouge, a Maoist revolutionary, enslaved Cambodians in labor camps where one in five starved to death, died from disease, or were executed.
  • February, 1993 – French President Mitterrand announced the establishment of a National Remembrance Day “… in memory of the anti-Semitic acts of persecution …” committed by the government of France during WWII.  This is the first time a French head of state has officially recognized the government’s role in the Jewish holocaust.
  • January, 1995 – On the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, German Catholic bishops issued a statement admitting that Catholic Christians should share responsibility for the evils of the Holocaust.  The bishops stated that during the era of Hitler’s Third Reich, “… Christians did not carry out the required resistance to racist anti-Semitism.”
  • March 13, 1999 – “With profound pain and humbleness we ask for forgiveness …” began the statement of apology from the leader of Guatemala’s former leftist rebel army.  The apology was for the excessive abuses committed during Guatemala’s 36-year civil war.  An estimated 150,000 Guatemalans were killed.
  • On June 9, 1995, Japan’s House of Representatives expressed condolences and remorse in a resolution commemorating the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II in the Pacific.  “On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II, this House offers its sincere condolences to those who fell in action and victims of wars and similar actions all over the world.  Solemnly reflecting upon many instances of colonial rule and acts of aggression in the modern history of the world, and recognizing that Japan carried out those acts in the past, inflicting pain and suffering upon the peoples of other countries, especially in Asia, the Members of this House express a sense of deep remorse.”
  • October 8, 1998 – In a written apology, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi apologized to the South Korean people for 35 years of brutal colonial rule. In his statement expressing remorse, Obuchi extended “… a heartfelt apology to the people of South Korea, having humbly accepted the historical fact that Japan inflicted heavy damage and pain on the people of South Korea through its colonial rule.”
  • August, 1993 – Pope John Paul II apologized for the support of the enslavement of Africans during the 17th and 18th centuries by the Roman Catholic Church  “The immensity of their suffering corresponds to the enormity of the crime committed against them,” said Pope John Paul II.
  • August, 1993 – Russian President Boris Yeltsin laid a wreath of flowers at a commemoration site to apologize for the massacre of 15,000 Polish army officers by Soviet forces in Katyn Forest during World War II.
  • June 1995 – On their 150th anniversary, the Southern Baptist Convention, the nations largest Protestant denomination, publicly apologized for its history of racial bigotry. “We apologize to all African Americans for condoning and/or perpetuating individual and systemic racism in our lifetime, and we genuinely repent of racism of which we have been guilty, whether consciously or unconsciously.”
  • Nov 4, 1995 – Queen Elizabeth II, apologized for injustices committed during the era of British Imperialism in New Zealand against the Maoris, the native inhabitants.
  • June 12, 1998 – In a letter signed by President Clinton, the United States formally apologized to the approximately 2,200 people of Japanese ancestry who were forcibly removed from Latin American countries and interned in the United States during World War II.  “We understand that our nation’s actions were rooted in racial prejudice and wartime hysteria, and we must learn from the past and dedicate ourselves as a nation to renewing and strengthening equality, justice and freedom,” Clinton wrote.

Along Abbots Creek in Davidson County, it gets real personal

Atoning for wrongs committed against each other and seeking forgiveness is one of the most wrenchingly difficult acts in the human experience, whether for individuals or families or states or nations.  However, the importance of atonement has been recognized for thousands of years.

Jews have celebrated Yom Kippur, also known as the Day of Atonement, for 3,400 years.  Atonement is the most important principal of Christianity, with emphasis given to the importance of personal atonement during the 40 days of Lent leading up to Easter Sunday.

Nevertheless, atonement remains difficult because it forces us to admit that we made those mistakes; that our families made mistakes as repugnant as any in history.

Last summer, I attended the Miller family reunion in Lexington.  My mother’s mother was a Miller whose ancestors go back to when Gorg Miller bought land and settled along Abbots Creek in 1752.  One of the outings was a visit to a family graveyard a half-hour walk into a dense forest … a graveyard so old that the last person buried there was in 1890.

We finally found the graveyard in a thicket, three dozen or so grave stones and monuments surrounded by an ornamental iron fence.  The slaves were buried outside the fence with no markers.  The most imposing monument was that of Civil War Captain John Miller.

Although I do deeply regret the mistakes my family members made in thinking that slavery was justifiable, I do not have any bitter feelings towards those who owned slaves and fought for the confederates. However, I do feel compelled to find ways that I can atone for their mistakes … like supporting the pardon of Governor Holden.

By pardoning Governor Holden, we are not merely looking back to atone for mistakes made 140 years ago, we are looking forward to ensure that our children and their children and generations 140 years from now do not impeach, convict and remove a governor from office for taking a stand against the likes of the Ku Klux Klan.

– END –

Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle.  The Premium subscription is $485 a year.  Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year.  This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.  Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

Caution: NC’s Population Growth Yields Fewer Democrats but More Liberals; More Republicans and Fewer Conservatives

by johndavis, March 3, 2011

[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-March-3-Pop-Growth.mp3|titles=Audio March 3 Pop Growth] “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.”  Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011 Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-March-3-Pop-Growth.mp3|titles=Audio March 3 Pop Growth]

“If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.”  Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011

Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth Since 1990

Granted, yesterday’s big news that North Carolina’s population has grown 18.5% in one decade is something to write about.  However, in order to see just how dramatically we have changed politically you should take a look at the 84% growth in registered voters since 1990.

The 84% growth in registered voters since 1990 has yielded confounding results:  the political market share of Democrats has declined by 30%, yet we have twice as many liberals.  There are a million more Republicans, yet the market share of conservatives has declined by 20%.

Caution: The greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” (17.6%) or “moderate” (37.3%) than “conservative” (41.4%).[i]

Voter population growth yields fewer Democrats: In 1990, there were 3.3 million voters in North Carolina.  As of February 26, 2011, there are 6.1 million voters … an 84% increase.

  • In 1990,[ii] 64% of NC registered voters were Democrats
  • Today, only 45% of registered voters are Democrats (30% decline)
  • In 1990, 31% of NC registered voters were Republicans
  • Today, the Republican share 32% (no change)
  • In 1990, 6% of NC registered voters were “Unaffiliated”
  • Today, the “Unaffiliated” registration is 24% (a 400% increase)

Half of NC’s Voters are in 14 Urban Counties

The geography of North Carolina is unchanged.  The mountains are still standing where they stood in 1587 when the “Lost Colony” of British immigrants first settled on Roanoke Island.  The ocean waves still wash ashore along the coast just like they did in 1781 when North Carolina patriot militiamen defeated Cornwallis at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse during the Revolutionary War.  It’s the profile of the people who make up modern day North Carolina that has undergone profound change … change driven by dramatic population growth in the last few decades.

Throughout most of our history, we were a Southern state … rural and conservative.  Today, we are more diverse … more like the nation than the South; more urban and ideologically moderate.

Today, half of North Carolina’s 6.1 million voters reside in 14 counties; the other half reside in the other 86 counties.  That means that once the new legislative maps are drawn, half of the state Senators and House members will be from 14 counties, the other half from the other 86 counties.

Non-Southern Newcomers Remix Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives

As to the ideological shift, according to polling and democratic research conducted throughout the past two decades, two-thirds of the newcomers to North Carolina are not from the South. The leading states sending new voters to North Carolina are Pennsylvania, California, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Ohio.  Although these new voters have caused the 30% decline in the number of registered Democrats, their predominantly progressive political ideology has led to a doubling of self-described liberals.

Since the early 1990s, while serving as President of NCFREE, I asked the following question in all statewide polls:  “For most government policies do you prefer the solutions offered by liberals, moderates, or conservatives?”  (If Liberal, ask …) “Would that be very liberal or just liberal?” (If conservative, ask …) “Would that be very conservative or just conservative?”

Prior to 1995, the total “Liberal” was always a single digit number in statewide public opinion polls.  In 1995, the total “Liberal” increased to 10.3% (“Liberal” 8.8%; “Very Liberal” 1.5%).[i]

Today, polls show the total self-described liberals in North Carolina consistently closer to 20%, with conservatives around 45% and moderates around 35%.

According to Tom Jensen with Public Policy Polling, their latest North Carolina poll shows 16% of our voters describing themselves as liberal, 40% moderate, and 44% conservative.  (For emphasis: 56% NOT claiming to be conservative … in a Republican-friendly year!)

A new study released this week by Gallup shows that based on tracking polls throughout 2010 North Carolina is 41.4% conservative, 37.3% moderate and 17.6% liberal.  Only two Southern states are more liberal and less conservative than North Carolina: Florida and Virginia.  It’s no coincidence that those three states are the only Southern states carried by President Obama.

Although liberals and moderates combined are already well over half of all voters, their share of voters in urban areas increases considerably.  Restated for emphasis: Half of all voters in North Carolina’s 100 counties live in 14 urban counties.  These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP McCain/Palin ticket.

Conservative Governance of a Moderate, Battleground State

As stated at the outset, the greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” or “moderate” than “conservative”.[i]

Karl Rove writes in today’s Wall Street Journal, “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.”  Rove concludes, “Americans today want to know what steps Republicans will take to create more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”

There you have it.  The way to meet the challenge of governing as a conservative in a moderate state is to stay keenly focused on what North Carolinians want … the same thing all Americans want, “more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”

– END –


[i] NCFREE statewide survey of 800 registered voters in North Carolina conducted between the dates of February 27 – March 3, 1995.  The survey is based upon actual telephone interviews with registered voters.

[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx

[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx

[iv] 1990 voter registration numbers are from the State Board of Elections.  My sincere thanks to Jacque Blaeske who took the time to find them and send them to me.

– END –

Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle.  The Premium subscription is $485 a year.  Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year.  This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.

Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.

Sincerely,

John N. Davis, President

Liberal Insurgents End Sen. Basnight’s Historic Era of Power: Business Agenda and Long-term Jobs Growth Threatened by Attrition of Allies

by johndavis, December 10, 2009

“I can’t control my caucus anymore.” — Marc Basnight, NC Senate President Pro Tempore On November 17, 2009, with the unanimous election of Sen. Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) as Majority Leader of the North Carolina Senate following the suspicious resignation of long-time Majority Leader and Rules Chairman Sen. Tony Rand (D-Cumberland), the historic era of unparalleled
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“I can’t control my caucus anymore.” — Marc Basnight, NC Senate President Pro Tempore

On November 17, 2009, with the unanimous election of Sen. Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) as Majority Leader of the North Carolina Senate following the suspicious resignation of long-time Majority Leader and Rules Chairman Sen. Tony Rand (D-Cumberland), the historic era of unparalleled power of Senate President Pro Tempore Marc Basnight came to an end. A new era of Senate and House legislative leadership is beginning, an era led by seasoned urban lawyers with unquestionable liberal credentials.

The latest signal of change came yesterday, when Sen. David Hoyle (D-Gaston), Vice Chair of Finance and the highest rated ally of business, announced that he would retire after this session. The Senate, for decades a safe harbor for North Carolina business, has gone the way of the House and is now in the hands of liberal lawyers. You can count the number of business owners among Senate Democrats on one hand.

Who are these savvy urban liberal political insurgents? They include three very smart lawyers who were elected to the House for the first time nearly three decades ago: Senators Nesbitt and Dan Blue (D-Wake), and House Speaker Joe Hackney (D-Orange), along with fellow attorney and elder statesman Rep. Mickey Michaux (D-Durham), and new rising stars with law degrees like Rep. Jennifer Weiss (D-Wake), Rep. Deborah Ross (D-Wake), and Sen. Dan Clodfelter (D-Mecklenburg). Thus, the new demographic profile of emerging leaders in the North Carolina legislature is liberal urban lawyers.

Legislative leaders are like powerful magnets; the other legislators are like metal filings. Wherever the leaders are along the sliding philosophical scale, from the political left to the political right, all metal filings are drawn in that direction. It’s the nature of magnetic force … the nature of political power.

Marc Basnight, Tony Rand and David Hoyle are three of the most dynamic legislative magnets in state history. They wielded their power over the Senate with ruthless efficiency, consolidating power so effectively that they became the most influential political force in the state. However, the little known fact outside the Raleigh beltline is that they were slowly becoming a minority in their majority caucus.

Basnight and his inner circle were business owners who fit the classic mold that distinguished North Carolina from the rest of the South; they were business progressives. Their fatal flaw was the failure to see the value in maintaining their base of business allies by recruiting and helping elect other business Democrats. And so, imperceptibly over time, a liberal coalition of Democrats grew in number and coalesced to create its own magnetic force, a force now greater than that of the leaders.

When Basnight began his service as President Pro Tempore, over half of the Senate Democratic Caucus members were from business backgrounds. They included bankers, road builders, tobacco warehousemen, farmers, insurance agents, developers, retail merchants, pork producers, truckers and manufacturers. Today, there are only six members of the Senate Democratic Caucus from business backgrounds. Three of those six have retired or plan to retire: David Weinstein (D-Robeson) resigned earlier this year, Tony Rand resigned in November, and David Hoyle who is leaving after this term.

A business scorecard released last month by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation (NCFEF), a business-sponsored political research offshoot of the now defunct NCFREE, clearly shows that Basnight, Rand and Hoyle are outnumbered.1 Only 10% of the Senate Democrats are ranked in the highest business “Base” friends category, with 60% in the lowest “Occasional Friends” category. Among Republican Senators, 90% are in the business “Base” friends category.

Overall, because of the dramatic decline in business people in the Senate Democratic Caucus, only 42% of all Senators are business friends, with 36% in the lowest “Occasional Friends” category, for a net business advantage of only 6 points. The greatest business advantage was in 1995, when the Democrats had a slim majority of 26 to 24. A whopping 68% of the Senators were business “Base” friends, with only 18% in the lowest, “Occasional Friends” category, for a net business advantage of 50 points.

As to what we can expect from the new urban lawyer leaders: Martin Nesbitt’s lifetime business rating was 51% during his two decades in the House,2 and only 39% on the 2009 Senate Business Ratings conducted last month by NCFEF. Dan Blue’s lifetime business rating was 50% over his two decades in the House and 47% on the recent Senate Business Ratings. Newcomer to the ranks of Senate leadership is Finance Committee co-chair Sen. Dan Clodfelter (D-Mecklenburg), with a score of 62% on the latest business test, considerably higher than fellow lawyers Nesbitt or Blue, but only 30th overall in the Senate.

However, compare those business scores with other Senate leaders from business occupations: Hoyle’s business score is 91%, the highest in the Senate including all Republican scores. Appropriations Committee co-chair A.B. Swindell (D-Nash) has a 75% score, the second highest among the Democrats; Appropriations Committee co-chair Linda Garrou (D-Forsyth), has a 67%, the 7th highest Democrat; and Finance Committee co-chair Clark Jenkins (D-Edgecombe) has a 74% score, the 3rd highest Democrat.

Bottom Line: The Senate is no longer a safe harbor for business. Business, like Basnight, is simply outnumbered. Business has also met its match in building relationships with legislators with campaign contributions. Labor unions dumped over $5 million into North Carolina campaigns in 2008. Now you know why Basnight is beginning to tell his friends, “I can’t control my caucus anymore.”

On the House side, urban lawyer Speaker Joe Hackney’s lifetime business rating is only 34% during his nearly three decades in the House,3 and 42% on the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation 2009 Senate Business Ratings.4 By way of comparison, businessman House Speaker Jim Black (D-Mecklenburg) had a lifetime business rating of 76% during his two decades in the House.5 His predecessor in the Speaker’s chair, businessman Harold Brubaker (R-Randolph), has a lifetime business rating of 90%, and 85% on the new NCFEF 2009 Senate Business Ratings. Brubaker’s lifetime commitment to the state’s business community is uniquely significant as he is in his 17th term.

Although Black is no longer serving (in the legislature), the group of liberal urban lawyers from the House class of 1981 including Senators Nesbitt and Blue, and Representatives Hackney and Michaux, are well positioned to seize the strings to the state purse. Just how tight is this group? Well, when Dan Blue served as Speaker in 1991, Nesbitt was Appropriations Committee chair, Hackney was Finance Committee chair, and Michaux along with Hackney served on the Rules Committee. In 1993, following Blue’s election to a second term as speaker, Nesbitt, Hackney and Michaux continued in those same powerful leadership roles. Their roots are deep; their bonds are tight.

Other rising stars in the House leadership include Paul Luebke (D-Durham), who began serving on the Finance Committee in 1999 and is now the Senior Chair under Speaker Hackney, along with co-chairs Pryor Gibson (D-Anson), William Wainwright (D-Craven) and Jennifer Weiss (D-Wake). Luebke has a 22% rating on the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation 2009 House Business Ratings, ranking him 119th out of 120 House members. Wainwright has a business rating of 52%, with Weiss rated 23%, ranking her 118th out of 120 House members. Gibson, a businessman, is the only solid business ally leading the Finance Committee with a rating of 72%, the ninth highest rated Democrat.

The House Appropriations Committee, led by Michaux as the Senior Chair, has only one solid business ally among the co-chair in businessman Jim Crawford (D-Granville), the #1 highest ranked Democrat in the House with a business rating of 83%, ranking him 10th overall out of 120 House members. Only 13% of the House Democrats are ranked in the highest business “Base” friends category, with 63% in the lowest “Occasional Friends” category. Among Republican Representatives, 96% are in the business “Base” friends category.

Today, overall, only 49% of the 120 members of the House of Representatives are business friends, with 36% in the lowest “Occasional Friends” category, for a net business advantage of only 13 points. In 1995, when the Republicans had the majority, 64% of the Representatives were business “Base” friends, with only 25% in the lowest, “Occasional Friends” category, for a net business advantage of 39 points.

In the conclusion to the book, “The New Politics of North Carolina,” editors Christopher Cooper and Gibbs Knotts make the case that it’s time we reevaluated the notion that North Carolina is a progressive state using six additional dimensions including party competition.6 Cooper and Knotts argue that competition among political parties can, “… foster new ideas, enhance debate, and lead to innovative policy solutions. By and large, a progressive state is a two-party state.”

So, for all of you enlightened business progressives out there concerned about fiscal irresponsibility and the rampant corruption resulting from the unilateral policy making authority of the Democrats, perhaps it’s time that you consider doing something really progressive: vote Republican.

References

  1. http://ncfef.org/Home_files/2009%20NCFEF%20Business%20Ratings%20Final.pdf
  2. Almanac of North Carolina Politics, General Election 2002 Supplemental Volume 1, #3, Pg 114.
  3. Almanac of North Carolina Politics, Fall 2007 Edition, Pg. 294.
  4. http://ncfef.org/Home_files/2009%20NCFEF%20Business%20Ratings%20Final.pdf
  5. Almanac of North Carolina Politics, Fall 2005 Edition, Pg. 750.
  6. The New Politics of North Carolina, North Carolina Press, 2008, Editors: Cooper and Knotts.