North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections
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North Carolina House Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections
“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come.” John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Wednesday, September 26, 2012 Vol. V, No. 31 11:13 am
Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC House Forecasts
In 2012, Republicans will win the House majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century. Click here to see the complete list of NC House races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.
Key Conclusions: First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership. Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.
These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years. Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the House for many elections to come.
- Winner: Has no further opposition. Democrats 22; Republicans 25.
- Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge). Democrats 16; Republicans 45.
- Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district. Democrats 7; Republicans 5.
- Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders. Democrats 0; Republicans 0.
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Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections
[More…]
North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections
“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.” John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Tuesday, September 25, 2012 Vol. V, No. 30 11:13 am
Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC Senate Forecasts
In 2012, Republicans will win the Senate majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century. Click here to see the complete list of NC Senate races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.
Key Conclusions: First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership. Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.
These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years. Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.
- Winner: Has no further opposition. Democrats 7; Republicans 11.
- Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge). Democrats 9; Republicans 18.
- Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district. Democrats 2; Republicans 2.
- Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders. Democrats 1; Republicans 1.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, September 26, the John Davis Political Report will publish a forecast of all 120 NC House races.
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Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-Mar-23.mp3|titles=Audio Mar 23] “In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican State Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor.” News & Observer, March 15, 2011, story by Rob Christensen, Author of The
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“In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican State Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor.”
News & Observer, March 15, 2011, story by Rob Christensen,
Author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
NOTE: In a departure from the usual content of my report, this is a statement about the importance of today’s consideration by the NC Senate of the pardon of Gov. W.W. Holden.
Precedent for State Atonement – Pope John Paul II Admits that the Roman Catholic Church Erred in Condemning Galileo 359 Years Ago
On October 31, 1992, Pope John Paul II acknowledged in a speech before the Pontifical Academy of Sciences that the Roman Catholic Church had wrongfully condemned Galileo 359 years earlier for asserting that the Earth revolves around the Sun.
In order to keep from being burned at the stake, Galileo (1564-1642), the father of modern science, recanted his scientific findings and spent the remainder of his life under house arrest.
In North Carolina, a mere 140 years ago, the state Senate convicted Governor W.W. Holden on six impeachment charges related to his efforts to quell violence by the Ku Klux Klan in Alamance and Caswell counties. He was the first governor in American history to be impeached, convicted and removed from office. The Senate is considering a pardon.
They cut the Senator’s throat and stabbed him in the heart
In a March 15 News & Observer story, political writer Rob Christensen notes that the violent acts committed by the Klan included arson, lynching and political assassination … including the assassination of a white Republican sheriff and state Senator. “Two Klan murders were particularly high profile,” writes Christensen. “The Klan hanged Wyatt Outlaw, the leader of the black Republicans in Alamance County, in the town square of Graham. In Caswell County, the Klan trapped Republican state Sen. John W. Stephens in the county courthouse and cut his throat and stabbed him in the heart. At the time Stephens was collecting evidence of Klan activity for the governor. Twenty-one other people, black and white, in Caswell County were whipped.”
Under Holden’s orders, the state militia took control of the Alamance and Caswell county courthouses and arrested more than 100 accused Klan members. The six charges leading to his impeachment, conviction and removal from office resulted from these actions.
The bill seeking to pardon Gov. Holden is cosponsored by Sen. Neal Hunt, a Wake County Republican, and Sen. Dan Blue, a Wake County Democrat. Three of North Carolina’s former governors, Democrat Jim Hunt and Republicans Jim Martin and Jim Holshouser, have written legislative leaders in support of the pardon.
Precedent for Acts of State Atonement
In the late 1990s, I was researching the political implications of the coming of a new millennium. Although ultimately the longest period of economic expansion in US history drove the politics of the millennium era, I did discover an unusual phenomenon: worldwide acts of atonement.
Throughout the final decade of the last millennium, countries throughout the world sought to begin the new millennium with a clean slate by admitting to their past wrongs. The acknowledgment by Pope John Paul II that the Roman Catholic Church had wrongfully condemned Galileo 359 years earlier for asserting that the Earth revolves around the Sun is an example of what I found. Here are a few others:
- Jan 19, 1998 – Ottawa apologized for its role in running aboriginal residential schools, which have become notorious for the sexual and physical abuse inflicted upon native children. The long-awaited apology brought back painful memories among Canada’s 1.3 million aboriginals.
- December 29, 1998 – Two top Khmer Rouge leaders issued the first public apology for their role in the deaths of 1.7 million Cambodians during the “killing fields” of the 1970s. Khmer Rouge, a Maoist revolutionary, enslaved Cambodians in labor camps where one in five starved to death, died from disease, or were executed.
- February, 1993 – French President Mitterrand announced the establishment of a National Remembrance Day “… in memory of the anti-Semitic acts of persecution …” committed by the government of France during WWII. This is the first time a French head of state has officially recognized the government’s role in the Jewish holocaust.
- January, 1995 – On the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, German Catholic bishops issued a statement admitting that Catholic Christians should share responsibility for the evils of the Holocaust. The bishops stated that during the era of Hitler’s Third Reich, “… Christians did not carry out the required resistance to racist anti-Semitism.”
- March 13, 1999 – “With profound pain and humbleness we ask for forgiveness …” began the statement of apology from the leader of Guatemala’s former leftist rebel army. The apology was for the excessive abuses committed during Guatemala’s 36-year civil war. An estimated 150,000 Guatemalans were killed.
- On June 9, 1995, Japan’s House of Representatives expressed condolences and remorse in a resolution commemorating the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II in the Pacific. “On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II, this House offers its sincere condolences to those who fell in action and victims of wars and similar actions all over the world. Solemnly reflecting upon many instances of colonial rule and acts of aggression in the modern history of the world, and recognizing that Japan carried out those acts in the past, inflicting pain and suffering upon the peoples of other countries, especially in Asia, the Members of this House express a sense of deep remorse.”
- October 8, 1998 – In a written apology, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi apologized to the South Korean people for 35 years of brutal colonial rule. In his statement expressing remorse, Obuchi extended “… a heartfelt apology to the people of South Korea, having humbly accepted the historical fact that Japan inflicted heavy damage and pain on the people of South Korea through its colonial rule.”
- August, 1993 – Pope John Paul II apologized for the support of the enslavement of Africans during the 17th and 18th centuries by the Roman Catholic Church “The immensity of their suffering corresponds to the enormity of the crime committed against them,” said Pope John Paul II.
- August, 1993 – Russian President Boris Yeltsin laid a wreath of flowers at a commemoration site to apologize for the massacre of 15,000 Polish army officers by Soviet forces in Katyn Forest during World War II.
- June 1995 – On their 150th anniversary, the Southern Baptist Convention, the nations largest Protestant denomination, publicly apologized for its history of racial bigotry. “We apologize to all African Americans for condoning and/or perpetuating individual and systemic racism in our lifetime, and we genuinely repent of racism of which we have been guilty, whether consciously or unconsciously.”
- Nov 4, 1995 – Queen Elizabeth II, apologized for injustices committed during the era of British Imperialism in New Zealand against the Maoris, the native inhabitants.
- June 12, 1998 – In a letter signed by President Clinton, the United States formally apologized to the approximately 2,200 people of Japanese ancestry who were forcibly removed from Latin American countries and interned in the United States during World War II. “We understand that our nation’s actions were rooted in racial prejudice and wartime hysteria, and we must learn from the past and dedicate ourselves as a nation to renewing and strengthening equality, justice and freedom,” Clinton wrote.
Along Abbots Creek in Davidson County, it gets real personal
Atoning for wrongs committed against each other and seeking forgiveness is one of the most wrenchingly difficult acts in the human experience, whether for individuals or families or states or nations. However, the importance of atonement has been recognized for thousands of years.
Jews have celebrated Yom Kippur, also known as the Day of Atonement, for 3,400 years. Atonement is the most important principal of Christianity, with emphasis given to the importance of personal atonement during the 40 days of Lent leading up to Easter Sunday.
Nevertheless, atonement remains difficult because it forces us to admit that we made those mistakes; that our families made mistakes as repugnant as any in history.
Last summer, I attended the Miller family reunion in Lexington. My mother’s mother was a Miller whose ancestors go back to when Gorg Miller bought land and settled along Abbots Creek in 1752. One of the outings was a visit to a family graveyard a half-hour walk into a dense forest … a graveyard so old that the last person buried there was in 1890.
We finally found the graveyard in a thicket, three dozen or so grave stones and monuments surrounded by an ornamental iron fence. The slaves were buried outside the fence with no markers. The most imposing monument was that of Civil War Captain John Miller.
Although I do deeply regret the mistakes my family members made in thinking that slavery was justifiable, I do not have any bitter feelings towards those who owned slaves and fought for the confederates. However, I do feel compelled to find ways that I can atone for their mistakes … like supporting the pardon of Governor Holden.
By pardoning Governor Holden, we are not merely looking back to atone for mistakes made 140 years ago, we are looking forward to ensure that our children and their children and generations 140 years from now do not impeach, convict and remove a governor from office for taking a stand against the likes of the Ku Klux Klan.
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Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations. Call me if you are interested and I will come visit with you: 919-696-3859.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Audio-March-3-Pop-Growth.mp3|titles=Audio March 3 Pop Growth] “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011 Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth
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“If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2011
Political Implications of NC’s 84% Voter Population Growth Since 1990
Granted, yesterday’s big news that North Carolina’s population has grown 18.5% in one decade is something to write about. However, in order to see just how dramatically we have changed politically you should take a look at the 84% growth in registered voters since 1990.
The 84% growth in registered voters since 1990 has yielded confounding results: the political market share of Democrats has declined by 30%, yet we have twice as many liberals. There are a million more Republicans, yet the market share of conservatives has declined by 20%.
Caution: The greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” (17.6%) or “moderate” (37.3%) than “conservative” (41.4%).[i]
Voter population growth yields fewer Democrats: In 1990, there were 3.3 million voters in North Carolina. As of February 26, 2011, there are 6.1 million voters … an 84% increase.
- In 1990,[ii] 64% of NC registered voters were Democrats
- Today, only 45% of registered voters are Democrats (30% decline)
- In 1990, 31% of NC registered voters were Republicans
- Today, the Republican share 32% (no change)
- In 1990, 6% of NC registered voters were “Unaffiliated”
- Today, the “Unaffiliated” registration is 24% (a 400% increase)
Half of NC’s Voters are in 14 Urban Counties
The geography of North Carolina is unchanged. The mountains are still standing where they stood in 1587 when the “Lost Colony” of British immigrants first settled on Roanoke Island. The ocean waves still wash ashore along the coast just like they did in 1781 when North Carolina patriot militiamen defeated Cornwallis at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse during the Revolutionary War. It’s the profile of the people who make up modern day North Carolina that has undergone profound change … change driven by dramatic population growth in the last few decades.
Throughout most of our history, we were a Southern state … rural and conservative. Today, we are more diverse … more like the nation than the South; more urban and ideologically moderate.
Today, half of North Carolina’s 6.1 million voters reside in 14 counties; the other half reside in the other 86 counties. That means that once the new legislative maps are drawn, half of the state Senators and House members will be from 14 counties, the other half from the other 86 counties.
Non-Southern Newcomers Remix Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives
As to the ideological shift, according to polling and democratic research conducted throughout the past two decades, two-thirds of the newcomers to North Carolina are not from the South. The leading states sending new voters to North Carolina are Pennsylvania, California, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Ohio. Although these new voters have caused the 30% decline in the number of registered Democrats, their predominantly progressive political ideology has led to a doubling of self-described liberals.
Since the early 1990s, while serving as President of NCFREE, I asked the following question in all statewide polls: “For most government policies do you prefer the solutions offered by liberals, moderates, or conservatives?” (If Liberal, ask …) “Would that be very liberal or just liberal?” (If conservative, ask …) “Would that be very conservative or just conservative?”
Prior to 1995, the total “Liberal” was always a single digit number in statewide public opinion polls. In 1995, the total “Liberal” increased to 10.3% (“Liberal” 8.8%; “Very Liberal” 1.5%).[i]
Today, polls show the total self-described liberals in North Carolina consistently closer to 20%, with conservatives around 45% and moderates around 35%.
According to Tom Jensen with Public Policy Polling, their latest North Carolina poll shows 16% of our voters describing themselves as liberal, 40% moderate, and 44% conservative. (For emphasis: 56% NOT claiming to be conservative … in a Republican-friendly year!)
A new study released this week by Gallup shows that based on tracking polls throughout 2010 North Carolina is 41.4% conservative, 37.3% moderate and 17.6% liberal. Only two Southern states are more liberal and less conservative than North Carolina: Florida and Virginia. It’s no coincidence that those three states are the only Southern states carried by President Obama.
Although liberals and moderates combined are already well over half of all voters, their share of voters in urban areas increases considerably. Restated for emphasis: Half of all voters in North Carolina’s 100 counties live in 14 urban counties. These 14 counties were carried by the Obama/Biden ticket with 1,027,114 votes to only 692,939 for the GOP McCain/Palin ticket.
Conservative Governance of a Moderate, Battleground State
As stated at the outset, the greatest political challenge ahead for the new GOP legislative majority is how to initiate conservative solutions to state government problems without alienating the majority of voters who prefer results over party or ideology … voters who are more likely to say that they are “liberal” or “moderate” than “conservative”.[i]
Karl Rove writes in today’s Wall Street Journal, “If they [Republicans in Congress] focus only on austerity and neglect to offer a pro-growth message, their attempt to tame the budget will be of limited appeal and could prove to be their undoing.” Rove concludes, “Americans today want to know what steps Republicans will take to create more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”
There you have it. The way to meet the challenge of governing as a conservative in a moderate state is to stay keenly focused on what North Carolinians want … the same thing all Americans want, “more jobs, bigger paychecks and greater prosperity.”
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[i] NCFREE statewide survey of 800 registered voters in North Carolina conducted between the dates of February 27 – March 3, 1995. The survey is based upon actual telephone interviews with registered voters.
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
[iv] 1990 voter registration numbers are from the State Board of Elections. My sincere thanks to Jacque Blaeske who took the time to find them and send them to me.
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Please subscribe to the John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle. The Premium subscription is $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.
Subscribe today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President