“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention Key Dates in 2012 Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!) Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa
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“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink.” ABC News story about Charlotte hosting the Democratic National Convention
Key Dates in 2012
- Candidate Filing opens Feb. 13, 2012; closes Feb. 29th (Leap Year!)
- Primary Election Day is May 8, 2012
- Republican National Convention in Tampa August 27, 2012
- Democratic National Convention in Charlotte September 3, 2012
- General Election Day is November 6, 2012
No political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina … period.
North Carolina became a presidential battleground state in 2008 with President Obama’s historic win. It continues as a battleground state, despite the GOP takeover of the General Assembly.
Any hope among Republicans that they could gain an early advantage in the 2012 elections by parlaying their exclusive legislative power into unilateral political power has been dashed by the selection of Charlotte as the geographical center of President Obama’s campaign for reelection.
President Obama likes North Carolina. He came here 8 times in 2008 after his nomination in Denver. He vacationed here with his family in 2010. Last month he made a major policy speech at Forsyth Tech. And now, Charlotte has been selected as the host city for the Democratic National Convention.
“This selection should put to rest any notion that the Presidential map in 2012 is going to shrink,” a senior Democratic official told ABC News. “President Obama will be very active in North Carolina and … despite what some have speculated, we are going to go as big in 2012 as we did in 2008 — and that means fighting hard for North Carolina, Virginia and all the states and more that helped elect President Obama in the first place.”
It is precisely because no political party has a predictable advantage in North Carolina that you need to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report.
No one called the legislative races earlier or more accurately last year. I projected the winner in 47 of 47 NC Senate races (3 races were toss ups), and correctly projected the winner in 111 of 115 NC House races (five races were toss ups). Since the last census, I have correctly projected 1100 of 1144 races in North Carolina … thanks in great part to my analysis of the districts.
I do not lobby, so I have no hesitation with writing objectively and boldly about the political mistakes of legislative leaders and the other factors that drive elections.
I do not have a partisan bias. My value as a political analyst and commentator is in having someone other than a party loyalist keeping you informed about the job party leaders are doing and the implications of their actions, good and bad, for election results in 2012.
I am not a political campaign consultant, so I have no conflict of interest in assessing the strengths of candidates and the status of political races.
Maps do not a majority make
New legislative and congressional districts will be mapped this year, with Republicans in charge for the first time since the 19th Century. Although you can count on Republicans to draw lines that favor their interests, there are many political forces far more important than the maps that I will be investigating on your behalf … like the 2012 battlefield leadership teams, the money, the strengths/weaknesses of the candidates and their consultants, President Obama’s decisions, the economy, unity/disunity among party leaders in North Carolina, political blunders, renegade uprisings, third-party organizations, the presidential and gubernatorial races, and the unforeseen local, state, national and international events of the day that always come along and shift the probability of success to one group of candidates over the other.
Democrats have been winning in Republican districts for decades because of the strengths and commitment of their leaders; because they recruited better candidates, raised more money and hired the best political professionals in the nation … and they worked harder, at least up until 2010 when all of those traditional Democratic strengths, including leaders, money, candidates and professionals, were seized by Republicans.
Who will seize the advantages of leadership, money, candidates and professional talent?
In 2010, I made the case that Democrats were less competitive due to events that had nothing to do with Republicans: like a shakeup of key legislative leaders due to retirements; a failed recruitment effort that left 11 Senate Republicans unchallenged and 29 House Republicans unchallenged; the disruption of corruption scandals; the overall dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation at a time when Democrats had all of the power; a disillusioned and unenthusiastic base; the loss of independent voters; a loss of confidence in President Obama, and the absence of a major investment in voter registration, turnout and straight-party voting as seen in 2008 when the Obama camp spent $ millions in NC.
Democratic loyalists would not have given you an accurate assessment of their political liabilities in 2010, and Republican loyalists are not going to give you an accurate assessment of their liabilities during the 2011-2012 election cycle.
This is where I come in. The weekly John Davis Political Report for the 2011-2012 election cycle, as well as the partisan momentum tracking in the Late Breaking Trends report, is available to you with the Premium subscription for $485 a year. Subscribe online today at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
The Advantage subscription is $4,850 per year. This subscription covers the John Davis Political Report with unlimited distribution rights to your employees or trade association members, along with private political briefings for you, your employees and leadership team, all conducted personally by me at your offices or conference locations.
The Advantage subscription will give you a greater sense of certainty about the politics of 2012 … earlier than anyone else. More specifically, my goal is to give you the advantage that comes from knowing the likely outcome of primary and general election races months in advance in order that you might plan ahead and invest effectively.
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Sincerely,
John N. Davis, President
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Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2 “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009 NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking
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Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2
“I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009
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A Political Wave Does Not a Majority Make
Many assert that the Republican “Wave” of 2010 was the reason that North Carolina Republicans won the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly on November 2, a first since 1898. Well, if all it takes is a GOP “Wave,” then why haven’t Republicans won the majority in the North 
Carolina General Assembly more often than the one time in 1994 … during a stretch of 112 years? Why is it that only two other states, Oregon and Washington, have an undefeated run of Democratic governors as long as North Carolina?
Sorry, a wave does not a majority make.
The Republican “wave” that swept the U.S. this fall presented a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to achieve historic gains in North Carolina … but nothing more than a wonderful opportunity. Democrats have always been able to beat back the national Republican wave election years because of money, savvy and unity … aided by underfunded Republican candidates and Republican Party disunity.
In 2010, the Republican and Democratic caucus strengths were reversed. It was the Democrats who began to self destruct. Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong.
The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Divided Democratic Leadership Led by Inexperienced War Generals
The NC Senate Democratic Caucus started down the road to defeat on November 17, 2009, a year before the 2010 elections. That was the day Sen. Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) was elected Majority Leader following the abrupt resignation of long-time Majority Leader and Rules Chairman Sen. Tony Rand (D-Cumberland).
Rand was a great war general; Nesbitt was not.
The historic era of unparalleled power of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight came to an end that day. Basnight began to tell his friends, “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” A new era of Senate leadership began, an era led by seasoned urban lawyers with unquestionable public policy credentials … but not political combat credentials.
Marc Basnight and Tony Rand were unquestionably two of the most powerful legislative leaders in state history … powerful because they knew how to win campaigns even during GOP wave years. However, they wielded their power with such ruthless efficiency that over time they made lots of enemies … including in their own caucus. The little known fact outside the Raleigh beltline is that Basnight and Rand were slowly becoming a minority in their majority caucus.
Basnight and his inner circle were business owners. Their fatal flaw was the failure to see the value in maintaining a base of philosophical allies in their caucus by recruiting and helping elect other Democratic business owners.
And so, imperceptibly over time, a liberal coalition of Senate Democrats grew in number and coalesced to create its own force, a mutinous force that became stronger than that of the leaders Basnight and Rand.
Thus, the fall of the Basnight/Rand Empire … and with it, a divided caucus led by inexperienced political war generals. They were doomed a year ago.
United Republican Leadership Led by Seasoned War Generals Who Can Raise Money
By 2008, Senate Republicans and their political team under the leadership of Phil Berger from Eden had become seasoned political combat veterans. They had become so good that they would have won a majority of seats in the North Carolina Senate, during one of the worst years for Republicans in modern political history, if it were not for the unity, savvy and especially the fundraising prowess of the Basnight/Rand political machine.
Senate Democrats were forced to spend an average of $500,000 per competitive race just to fend off Republicans who spent a third of that. That’s how effective Republican leaders, their political staff and their consultants had become at winning campaigns. They were a serious political threat even during a Democratic “Wave” … long before the GOP wave came along.
Among House Republicans, a strong political war general was needed. In 2010, that leader emerged in the name of Thom Tillis, a two-term member of the House from Huntersville. Tillis joined Skip Stam from Apex in what has become a powerful force with a working relationship that has the long-term potential equal to that of Basnight and Rand. They are competent, intelligent, politically savvy, and committed to the state … with a priority of restoring the state’s economic vitality. Oh, and they can raise money!
“We went in united, we came out united.”
Most importantly, Stam and Tillis are united.
I asked a House member to tell me about the Republican House Caucus meeting held a couple of weeks ago during which Skip Stam and Thom Tillis vied against each other for the position of Speaker. That member said, “We went in united, we came out united … thanks to the way Skip Stam and Thom Tillis conducted themselves.” That speaks well for long-term majority status for Republicans in the North Carolina House.
And speaking of the importance of unity and political warfare experience, the role played by NC GOP Party Chair Tom Fetzer in 2009 and 2010 cannot be overstated. A party with a history of being divided, conservative versus moderates, came together under the leadership of Fetzer. Fetzer not only brought unity to the GOP this election cycle, he brought political savvy and fundraising skills from his years as Mayor of Raleigh and as a political consultant.
Fetzer’s rallying theme for the 2010 elections: “One Team, One Goal, Victory.” Unity, savvy and successful fundraising is why Republicans won in 2010. Otherwise, 2010 would have been just another Republican “wave” year written off as a just another missed opportunity.
Don’t Dismiss the Significance of the GOP Commitment
To suggest that “the wave” alone would have carried the GOP into power in 2010 not only flies in the face of NC history, it dismisses the significance of the GOP commitment.
- It dismisses the significance of a leave-it-all-on-the-battlefield 18-month commitment of time and energy by an atypically savvy and united group of NC Republican party leaders and their exceptional staff;
- It dismisses the significance of an atypically savvy and united Senate and House Republican caucus leadership team and their exceptional political staff;
- It dismisses the definitive value of the thousands of volunteers who manned the phone banks for months making 2 million calls so they would not be beat this year in the early voting turnout;
- It dismisses the extraordinary class of candidates who neglected their families and risked their personal resources while working the campaign trail to exhaustion day after week after month after month … nights and weekends;
- It dismisses the significance of thousands of new contributors to Republican candidates and the hard work of those who took the time to work the phones raising the money;
- It dismisses the significance of new independent expenditure groups that followed the 2008 labor union play book with a partisan investment of millions;
- It dismisses the significance of the fact that through mid-October, Republican fundraising was UP twice as much as in 2008 while Democrats were DOWN $2 million;
- It dismisses the significance of the Tea Partiers and all of those rallies held all over the state … rallies organized by organizations like Americans for Prosperity and Civitas … rallies that would not have happened if it were not for committed and hard-working staff;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of 60 polls made public by organizations like Civitas, Carolina Strategy Group and Public Policy Polling … and groups like the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation who compiled political research for easy access;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of organizations like the John Locke Foundation that was a constant source of misery for Gov. Perdue and the Democratic establishment, keeping them tripped up with their effective investigative reporting and in-your-face news releases;
- It dismisses the significance of the constant drum beat of conservative thought pushed into the public conscience by talk radio, Fox News and a gazillion conservative publications and web sites.
Republicans in other states may have inadvertently won the power because of the national wave. Here in North Carolina, the “wave” was nothing more than an opportunity.
Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong. The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Well, there you have it, the John Davis Political Report for Tuesday, December 7, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.
For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Subscription, or $4,850 for the Advantage Subscription that includes an advisory relationship.
“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
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Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1 “According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats
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Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1
“According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats has dropped from 32 out of 120 under the 1992 House Plan to only 14 out of 120 under the 2001 House Plan.” NC Supreme Court opinion, Stephenson v. Bartlett, citing deposition of John Davis, NCFREE Executive Director
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Stephenson v. Bartlett – The Forgotten Reason Why the NC GOP Won the Majority in 2010
One month ago today, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans made history by winning the majority of the seats in the state Senate and House of Representatives. There are three primary reasons the GOP prevailed:
- Weak and divided Democratic leadership which lost the campaign $ advantage … during a GOP wave election year.
- Strong and united Republican leadership which achieved campaign $ parity … during a GOP wave election year.
- Stephenson v. Bartlett case of 2002 that led to a leveling of partisan districts
The Stephenson v. Bartlett case is the historic redistricting decision handed down by the NC Supreme Court in 2002 that threw out the brazenly 
gerrymandered maps drawn by legislative Democrats after the 2000 census. That case led to the leveling of the partisan playing field throughout the decade.
Without Stephenson v. Bartlett, the number of state senate and house districts drawn to favor Democrats would likely have been too great to overcome, even in 2010 with a strong Republican leadership team and GOP-friendly momentum.
I had the pleasure of serving as an impartial witness in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case in 2002, and was honored that my testimony was cited in the written opinion of the NC Supreme Court. Here are the facts before and after Stephenson v. Bartlett:
NC Senate Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 0-Seat Advantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 28 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 16 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
- After the judicially mandated remapping of districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a total loss of the advantage for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
NC House Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 4-Seat DISADVANTAGE
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 59 House districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 47 House districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts. There were 14 swing House districts.
- After judicially mandated remapping the districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 51 districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 55 districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net loss of 16 districts favoring Democrats when adding the net advantage for Republicans of 4 districts. There were still 14 swing districts.
So how is it that Democrats have been able to maintain power with a level playing field? The short answer is lots of money and a strong political leadership team. Democrats have been masters at parlaying their power into a 70-to-30 campaign spending advantage. They have also been masters at the fundamentals of winning campaigns. For many years I have referred to the Senate Democratic Caucus as the national model state legislative political war machine.
However, if you take away their strong Democratic leadership team and their financial advantage, they are left with a level political playing field thanks to the Stephenson v. Bartlett case. That’s what happened this year.
What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that they had to deal with an era of corrupt leaders, a Republican-friendly year, a weak governor, a high turnover of incumbents, an unpopular president, state budget problems, a national economic slump, anti-establishment voters, the Tea Party movement, low enthusiasm, low turnout of their base, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, record deficit spending, an unpopular war, a surge in opposition strength, and a loss of the campaign $ advantage … all at the same time.
Meanwhile, Republicans united for the first time as political pragmatists who finally accepted the fact that you can’t govern if you don’t win and you can’t win without money. Voila!
My sincerest congratulations to the Republican Party leadership and staff, to the GOP Senate Caucus leadership and staff, to the GOP House Caucus leadership and staff, and to all of you Republicans in North Carolina who have been denied the opportunity to have your ideas debated because of heavy-handed Democratic leadership who sent them to the Rules Committee for an early demise.
I hope that Republicans will do a better job than the Democrats at respecting the diversity of opinion in North Carolina …respecting diversity of opinion not just tolerating diversity of opinion. When it comes to conservative ideology, North Carolina’s liberal Democrats have a history of intolerance equal in every way to intolerant conservatives.
Speaking of respecting diversity of opinion, perhaps the greatest takeaway from the 2010 election cycle is: ignore the priorities of voters at your own peril. Both parties have had to learn that lesson the hard way during this decade.
Well, there you have it. This is the first John Davis Political Report of the 2011-2012 election cycle.
For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.
For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
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May you have the happiest of times with your family in the coming weeks!
“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Late-Breaking-Trends-Nov-2-2010.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Nov 2 2010] “The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and
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“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…” John Davis Political Report, Nov. 2, 2010
Late Breaking Trends
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
All of the Kings Horses and All of the Kings Men
The loss of confidence in President Obama and the Democratic Party started in 2009
Post: Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends partisan advantage tracking charts and you will see that the GOP has a double-digit political momentum advantage in today’s elections in NC … and that they have sustained that advantage since the chart was created on August 16, 2010.
Here are 4 of the 12 variables from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts:
- Only 13% of Americans rate the economy as “Excellent/Good” (74% said so in 2001)
- 64% of Americans say the country is on the “wrong track;” 31% say “right track”
- 74% of Americans “disapprove” of the job the U.S. Congress is doing
- 56% of NC voters “disapprove” of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 41% “approve”
Adding to the overall malaise among North Carolina Democrats today is low favorability rating or Governor Bev Perdue. According to today’s Pollster.com, only 22.7% of North Carolinians have a favorable impression of Purdue.
Here are the latest headlining studies that make the case for a big GOP win today:
Oct. 28 – Republican Party Equals the Democratic Party’s 3rd Quarter Fundraising in NC: According to a study of 3rd quarter campaign finance reports by the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, “This year, Republicans have raised $3.3 million, and the Democrats took in $3.7 million in the 3rd quarter: much closer to a 1-to-1 match. By way of comparison, in the 3rd quarter of 2008, “the Republican Party raised $1.5 million and the Democratic Party raised almost $5.9 million: a 4-to-1 Democratic advantage.” If in fact Republicans have taken away the Democrats’ last line of defense, money, then the GOP will win a majority in both the NC Senate and NC House.
Oct. 31 – Republican 15-Point Advantage on Generic Ballot Unprecedented in Gallup History: On October 31, 2010, USA Today/Gallup released the results of a national poll conducted Oct. 28-31 showing a 15-point gap in likely voters favoring Republicans in U.S. Congressional races. The report concluded, “This year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations.”
Nov. 1 – GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout: A net 11% swing to the favor of Republicans in early voting this fall when compared to the fall of 2008 bodes well for the GOP in North Carolina today. In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early during the General Election. This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.
On the other hand, Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008. This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008. A combination of the 6% gain by Republicans and the 5% loss by Democrats in early voting creates the 11-point GOP swing.
Nov. 2 – Republican 19-Point Enthusiasm Advantage Largest Midterm Gap in Decades: According to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28-31, “The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points (63% of Republicans, including Republican-leaning independents, say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to only 44% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents).
May/June – Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010: In May and June of this year, I wrote a 10-part series on the political liabilities faced by the NC Democratic Party in 2010. Part 10, on the role President Obama played in creating the loss of enthusiasm among Democrats, was featured in yesterday’s John Davis Political Report.
If you agree that President Bush contributed greatly to the Republican losses in 2008, and that the Congressional Republicans contributed greatly to their losses in 2006 and 2008, then you will know where I am coming from with this conclusion:
What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
The Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the “Safety” Automaker; Perdue the “Ethics” Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment
The loss of confidence in how President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are leading the country should have been abundantly clear a year ago with the election of Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey. And certainly there could have been no doubt after the election of a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts earlier this year.
The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898. After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…”
– END –
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Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, November 2, 2010.
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win.
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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“Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.” John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard
Late Breaking Trends
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout
Advantage Shifts Significantly from Democratic to Republican in 2010
Post: Monday, Nov. 1, 2010, by John Davis
In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early between the dates of Oct. 16 and Nov. 1. This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early since Oct. 14, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.
Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008. This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008.
A net 11% swing to the favor of the GOP this fall, coupled with last week’s big news about campaign funding near parity, bodes well for North Carolina Republicans tomorrow.
The 2010 numbers are from the following AP story on turnout of early voters:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/31/772524/950000-voters-have-already-cast.html
Is the NC Democratic Party the Toyota of State Politics?
Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share
John N. Davis, President
In May of this year, I wrote a 10-part series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.
The report lead to the following conclusion: Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats. Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP? Republicans win. And that is what is happening in this state.
The following paragraph is restated for emphasis: What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time. Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic. Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.
The Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share are:
#1: A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates
#2: Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb
#3: Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame
#4: A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending
#5: Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor
#6: The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy
#7: Regnat Populus! Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American
#8: Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened
#9: Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative
#10: Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment
What follows is report #10. All reports are available at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
Written in May, 2010
Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments
“What’s disappointing to me,” said Stupak, “is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem.” Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, May 20, 2010; U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems[i]
Obama’s inspiring oratory and hopeful message of change during the 2008 presidential race moved tens of millions from every walk of life to believe that he would be different; that he would be far greater than his predecessor.
And certainly President Obama would be able to manage a disaster better than the way President Bush handled Katrina. But now, in the aftermath of a catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf, what we see is a vulnerable and defensive leader with approval ratings plummeting to new lows.[ii]
North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008. Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.
Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June
The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster. It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low. According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[iii]
- He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
- He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
- He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
- He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
- He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
- He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
- He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
- He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
- He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
- He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[iv] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
- He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak
Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”
Where’s the Unlimited Money? The Paid Staff? The Enthusiastic Volunteers?
Democrats won many races in 2008 thanks to Obama’s oratorical skills and the disdain voters had for the Bush administration. Obama’s ability to inspire led to record fundraising and ultimately to the millions of dollars invested by his campaign in our state. Unlimited money brought hundreds of field staff to North Carolina who managed thousands of enthusiastic volunteers who succeeded in registering and turning out a record-breaking number of voters.
Nationally, the Obama campaign raised a staggering $782 million, employed 6,000 staffers who managed an all-volunteer army of 13 million Americans. In September 2008 alone, they raised $100 million online as a result of 10 e-mails. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,”[v] writes David Plouffe, President Obama’s campaign manager, in his book The Audacity to Win.
Why did Obama’s national fundraising success matter here in North Carolina in 2008? “Every additional dime was being funneled into battleground states,” said Plouffe. He recalled the Primary Election Day in North Carolina when Obama defeated Clinton by 14 points. “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites …. we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”[vi]
During the fall of 2008, the Obama campaign had 47 headquarters in our state, with over 400 paid staff in the twenty-something age group. These junior operatives were responsible for record early voting totaling 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004). More voters voted early than voted on Election Day!
Where is the inspired oratory in 2010? The record-breaking fundraising? The hundreds of paid staff? The thousands of volunteers working tirelessly to register and turn out Democrats?
Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, said on May 20, 2010, during the U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems, “What’s disappointing to me is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem. [vii] Likewise, what’s disappointing to so many who were inspired by candidate Obama in 2008 is that President Obama seems to have focused more on discrediting his critics than on accepting responsibility for solving the problems of the day.
North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008. Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.
END
[i] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter
[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx
[iv] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx June 10, 2010
[v] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Pg 327.
[vi] Ibid, Pg 229
[vii] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter
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Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Monday, November 1, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-HOUSE-UPDATE.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC HOUSE UPDATE] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the
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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-HOUSE-UPDATE.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC HOUSE UPDATE] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64
Post: October 28, 2010 (Friday, October 29, 2010 UPDATE)
NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly. All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.
Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will see that Tom Murry, Morrisville Town Councilman and Republican nominee in Wake County House District 41, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Chris Heagarty, D-Wake.
Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.
UPDATED FRIDAY, OCT. 29: According to a new SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 25-26 for the Civitas Institute, “Republican candidate Johnny Dawkins is maintaining his lead over Democratic Rep. Diane Parfitt in the state House District 44 race – comprised of Cumberland County.
Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Dawkins if the election for state representative were today. Forty-four percent said they would vote for Parfitt, and 7 percent are undecided.
However, among those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Dawkin’s lead increases to 56 percent-37 percent.”
The Civitas news release, dated today, Oct. 29, also noted that Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, is now trailing his GOP opponent, Jackie Warner, R-Cumberland, by 10 percent (Warner 51%; Glazier 41%). Warner is the wife of former Rep. Alex Warner.
This race has been moved to “toss up” on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House report.
NOTE: All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 12 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 51 wins next Tuesday, 53 if they split the 5 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written Wednesday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
· Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
· Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
· Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
· Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-Senate.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC Senate] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors
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Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-Senate.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC Senate] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily report graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC Senate Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 29
Post: October 29, 2010
No changes since last week’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate report, which showed the NC Senate Republican Caucus with a likely majority of 29 senators. All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 11 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 7 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 29 wins next Tuesday, with a possibility of 30 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 26 seats in the 50-member Senate to rule.
NOTE: All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have only 1 candidate with NO OPPOSITION, 16 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 1 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 18 wins next Tuesday, 20 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy an 18-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
The Big Differences between 2008 and 2010: The big differences in Senate races this year are money, momentum and leadership:
- The Senate Democratic Caucus’ national model political war machine fall apart with a half-dozen key retirements, especially the loss of the old war general Tony Rand.
- The Senate Republican Caucus has grown exponentially in strength and effectiveness in all areas of campaign fundamentals this cycle, from recruiting and fundraising to strategic planning and united leadership.
- Republicans have the political momentum advantage.
- Republicans have neutralized the one advantage that Democrats have always managed to dominate and parlay into winning the majority: money.
- Democratic scandals, involving Senators and caucus alums including Tony Rand, R.C. Soles and Gov. Beverly Perdue, have been a major distraction.
- Governor Perdue is a drag on all Democratic candidates with her dismal 21% “Favorable” rating.
- The big money corporate folks are hedging their bets and helping Republicans big time.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
- Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
- Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
- Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
- Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: View all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily chart above. Investors Political Daily North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64 Post: October 28, 2010 NC House GOP
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“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: View all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily chart above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64
Post: October 28, 2010
NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly. All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.
Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will 
Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.
NOTE: All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 52 wins next Tuesday, 54 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was writing yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
· Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
· Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
· Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
· Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.