North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections “Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections
[More…]
North Carolina Senate Forecasts Show Veto Proof Republican Majority after November 6 Elections
“Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.” John N. Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Tuesday, September 25, 2012 Vol. V, No. 30 11:13 am
Click Here for John Davis Political Report 2012 NC Senate Forecasts
In 2012, Republicans will win the Senate majority because they have seized the decided advantage jealously guarded by Democrats since the 19th Century. Click here to see the complete list of NC Senate
races with forecasts of the likely winners and favored candidates.
Key Conclusions: First, the state GOP is united behind savvy political warfare leaders at a time when the Democratic Party is divided by scandal and weak leadership. Second, Republicans have the favorable district maps and fundraising advantages historically reserved for Democrats.
These political advantages … money, maps, unity and savvy leaders … have allowed Democrats to maintain their iron-fisted grip on the state budget for a hundred years. Now, with great deference to the fundamentals for winning campaigns and the standards for political fairness established by the North Carolina Democratic Party, the GOP is setting itself on a sure course for a Republican majority in the Senate for many elections to come.
- Winner: Has no further opposition. Democrats 7; Republicans 11.
- Likely Winner: Has a decided advantage (highly partisan district and major financial edge). Democrats 9; Republicans 18.
- Favored: Has an advantage but also has a competitive opponent and/or district. Democrats 2; Republicans 2.
- Toss Up: Competitive district with two equally competitive contenders. Democrats 1; Republicans 1.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, September 26, the John Davis Political Report will publish a forecast of all 120 NC House races.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles. Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm First Generation of Leaders
[More…]
Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 Vol. V, No. 27 5:13 pm
First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898
The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.
Collapsed. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010. Lost the state Senate. Lost the state House of Representatives. First time since 1898.
No political warfare generals. The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012. Including President Obama.
Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term. Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008. Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898. A lame duck.
In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.
And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats. McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.
In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand. Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand. McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall. Dalton: $2.6 million.
The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.
The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:
NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand. This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party. Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.
North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out
Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.
The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic. Fact: Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.
Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.
- Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
- Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
- Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
- Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
- Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.
Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.
September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.
Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift
According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans. That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans. There’s more.
At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans. That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.
For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.
Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters. Obama volunteers.
The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama. With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.
Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?
That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27 “To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.” Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011 1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5% After
[More…]
Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.”
Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011
1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5%
After my report two weeks ago titled, “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I received the following emailed comment from a Republican member of the legislature … a friend with sensible views I have long admired:
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity. We must continue our struggle in the pursuit of excellence and return to the fundamental principles upon which American greatness was built upon. Compromise is not the answer.”
I immediately thought about the 1964 GOP nominee for President Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Arizona, and his famous battle cry, “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!”
Extremism in the defense of liberty cost the GOP the White House in 1964, and extremism in the defense of uncompromising economic conservatism during the worst recession since the Great Depression will cost the GOP the White House in 2012. It is simply politically inept.
However, it cuts both ways.
Uncompromising liberal economic extremists (Democrats and Republicans) got this country into the crisis we all face today. For decades, in Washington D.C. and in Raleigh, N.C., liberals have refused to be restrained by the economic caution of conservatives when it comes to government spending.
The unwillingness of liberals to compromise is the reason our country got into this crisis, and the unwillingness of conservatives to compromise is the reason we can’t get out of this crisis.
24,845,594 Reasons Conservative Economic Extremism will Cost the GOP
Take a look at today’s US Debt Clock, a real-time accounting of our nation’s finances, and you will see that “Actual Unemployed” in the United States is 24,845,594. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “Actual Unemployed” as the total unemployed, added to all marginally attached workers, plus those working part time but want to work full time.
In my report “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains Why NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I wrote about a Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, that shows that Americans strongly prefer leaders who will compromise to stimulate the economy and jobs growth.
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
- By almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
Voters want jobs and job security, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
Don’t Tell Mama I’m a Member of the U.S. Congress, She Thinks I’m a Lobbyist
There is an old joke passed down for many generations in political circles that goes like this: “Don’t tell mama I’m a lobbyist, she thinks I’m a piano player at a house of ill repute.” Well, in today’s hostile political environment that joke could easily be rewritten: “Don’t tell mama I’m a member of the U.S. Congress, she thinks I’m a lobbyist.”
A new national survey by Gallup released Today, Wednesday, October 12, 2011 reveals that the U.S. Congress is “on track to register its lowest annual average approval rating for any year since Gallup began measuring congressional approval in 1974.”
- Only 13% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job.
- Republicans’ and Democrats’ approval of Congress is identical, at 14%, similar to the 13% among independents.
- Comparison: President Obama’s job approval is 41% today, October 12, 2011
NOTE for Clarification: When pollsters measure the job approval of the U.S. Congress, they are referring to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives.
Many in the GOP seem to miss the fact that the 47 Republican members of the U.S. Senate and the 240 Republican members of the U.S. House are included in the historic high dissatisfaction with Congress. Republicans have 287 of the 535 members of Congress, or 54%.
If 81% of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing, that includes most Republicans in America disapproving of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing.
Economic Extremism will cost the GOP dearly in 2012 … but there is a win-win
Republicans are in trouble with American voters because they have allowed the most conservative among them to put “sticking to beliefs even if little gets done” ahead of “compromising in order to get things done.”
Voters want jobs and economic stability, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
So, to my Republican friend with a history of sensible views while serving in the legislature who wrote me that “Compromise is not the answer,” please remember that in 1964, Barry Goldwater received only 38.5% of the votes to 61.1% for President Lyndon Johnson. Goldwater carried 6 states out of 50 (AZ, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC), and only 52 electoral votes compared to 486 for Johnson.
Still not willing to compromise? OK, there is a way out without having to compromise … collaborate. At least be willing to collaborate. It’s your best hope of ending the worst recession since the Great Depression, jump-starting jobs growth, and restoring confidence with a long-range plan for stability.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Monthly Subscription $245. Premium Election Cycle Subscription $315 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate for Premium Annual Subscription is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time). Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26 “And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome
[More…]
“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama
Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26
“And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
Gov. Chris Christie, R-New Jersey, Meet the Press, June 26, 2011
Less than Half of Tea Party Supporters Say “Stick to Beliefs”
Fiscal conservatives who believe that it’s more important for our leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs even if little gets done” than it is to “Compromise in order to get things done” will be happy to know that almost half of all Tea Party supporters agree, according to an new Gallup survey released yesterday.
Ummmmmm, only half?
A Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, shows that 45% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important for leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs” even if little gets done. A surprising 31% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important to “Compromise” in order to get things done.
Here is the Gallup question:
“Is it more important for political leaders in Washington to compromise in order to get things done or is it more important to stick to their beliefs even if little gets done.”
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
Independents are 2-to-1 “Compromise” over “Stick to Beliefs;” Problematic for Current Slate of GOP Presidential Contenders
The most ominous message for uncompromising fiscal conservatives in the new Gallup survey is that by almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
The Tea Party has an inordinate amount of influence over the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination process. There is no greater evidence of that point than the fact that the entire GOP presidential slate agreed that they would say “no” to a deficit/debt reduction deal of $10 in spending cuts to $1 in increased revenue.
On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, the moderator at the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over tax increases.
BRET BAIER: Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?
BAIER: OK. Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands. They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to 1 deal, they would walk away from.”
When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”
NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Unique Strength is in Dealing with Adversaries: “Principled Outcome Where People are Also Compromising.”
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was a guest on Meet the Press on June 26, 2011 (Transcript here).
The debt ceiling debate was stalled. The president was finally stepping into the negotiations. The American public was divided according to an AP poll: 41% opposed to raising the debt ceiling; 38% favored raising the debt ceiling.
David Gregory, host of Meet the Press, opened the show with a taped interview with Gov. Christie after noting that Christie was coming off a big budget victory where the Democratic-controlled New Jersey State Assembly passed a landmark cost-cutting budget that would save the state $120 billion over the next 30 years.
MR. GREGORY: “The battle, of course, [here in Washington] is between spending and taxes. What’s the way out of this mess here?
GOV. CHRISTIE: “The first thing is that the president had to get involved personally. And what I found in New Jersey, in our experience in dealing with what you just talked about, was there is no substitute for the three leaders in the room having to look at each other and having to hash this out. And everybody’s got to put skin in the game, David. I mean, I gave on things that I wanted. Obviously, the Senate–Democratic Senate president in my state, and the Democratic speaker gave on things they wanted, and we came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles. And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the appeal of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to the GOP and the best argument for why he can defeat President Obama in 2012.
Throughout all of my reporting on the presidential race I have maintained that President Obama would defeat the current slate of contenders … in great part because they would not compromise on a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over new taxes.
I have also said repeatedly that if NJ Gov. Chris Christie is the nominee, all bets are off.
The new Gallup study showing that Americas prefer that our leaders in Washington “Compromise” in order to get things done rather than “Stick to Beliefs” even if little gets done explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s appeal to the GOP … and why he can defeat President Barack Obama.
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the leadership Americans are looking for … and deserve.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Monthly Subscription $245. Premium Election Cycle Subscription $315 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate for Premium Annual Subscription is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time). Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25 “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.” U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the
[More…]
No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25
“What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the 48 GOP caucus members for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday.
No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams
The headline above the fold in today’s News and Observer is, “Obama: no shortcut to peace.” The quote was from President Obama’s speech yesterday to the United Nations in which he urged Israel and Palestine to settle their differences without relying on UN action.
On the economic front, he could have added, “and there is no shortcut to prosperity.”
A few years ago, I drove my daughter and her friend to New York City for a week of theater and shopping. She had dreamed of such a week for a long time and had saved over $1000.
It worked out quite well for me. After all, for some time I had wanted to get away to work on a book I had dreamed of writing. This was the perfect opportunity. The girls would leave the room mid-morning and spend the entire day in the city and not come back to the hotel room except to dress for an evening performance. I would be free to write all day the entire week.
What I did not anticipate was a near-fatal case of writers block.
Despite numerous attempts to establish momentum, I ended the first day with very little accomplished. That was followed by a second day of struggling to be productive … although I ended the day with a glimmer of hope after a couple of hours of research at New York City’s Mid-Manhattan Public Library.
Surely the third day would be a breakthrough of productivity. Not so. As noontime rolled around, I was no farther along than when I started the day. Frustrated, I decided to take a walk.
After a couple of blocks of aimless wandering, I noticed a crowd of people walking into St. Patrick’s Cathedral on 5th Avenue for the noon mass. Not having any better idea of what to do with my time, I decided to join them. Maybe prayer and meditation would jump-start my writing.
Voila! I found the remedy to my chronic writers block that day … in the homily. The title of the homily was, “There are no shortcuts to your dreams.”
I went straight back to the room and went to work. I ended up having a very productive week.
U.S. House Speaker Boehner Chastises Tea Party Republicans
We should all thank the Tea Party for forcing a nation in economic denial to see the nation-destroying consequences of unlimited sacred cow budgeting and unchecked spending and borrowing.
However, if the Tea Party does not loosen up on opportunities like a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases, insisting on no new taxes, then it will be the Democrats who will be thanking the Tea Party for returning them to state and federal legislative majorities.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said as much today when he chastised the 48 members of the GOP caucus for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
There are no shortcuts to:
- Adjusting to the global economic correction: a monumental event likely requiring a painfully interminable period of austerity;
- Economic growth or job creation: an exercise requiring cautious and deliberate investments by the private sector in expansion that eventually will begin to add jobs;
- Getting our budget under control: an exercise requiring both painful spending cuts and program consolidation/elimination and tax reform … including new revenue.
Saying no to taxes is a shortcut.
Updated Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, GOP Presidential Nominee, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Governor and the likely North Carolina Senate and House majorities. Here are select updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 9/22: Obama will win a second term (without NC)
- Obama’s mid-40s job approval (43.6% Real Clear Politics average) at the lowest point of his administration, amidst worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, argues for a near-50% job approval next fall with any measure of sustained growth in jobs/economy. He wins at 50%.
- Obama will run against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress whose job approval hovers around 15% (Congressional job approval 13.5% Real Clear Politics average)
- Everyone in the current GOP presidential field has said “no” to a 10-to-1 spending over taxes deal and are losing credibility among most voters because their uncompromising stand.
- GALLUP released a survey September 20 in which:
- 70% of Americans favor “increasing taxes on some corporations by eliminating certain tax deductions,” including 53% of Republicans/Leaning Republican.
- 66% favor “increasing income taxes on individuals earning at least $200,000 (families $250,000),” including 41% of Republicans/Leaning Republicans.
- Over half of Republicans/Leaning Republicans favor 4 of the 6 proposals in Obama’s American Jobs Act including 84% who support “providing tax cuts for small businesses, including incentives to hire workers,” 56% who support “providing additional funds to hire teachers, police officers, and firefighters,” and 50% who support “providing additional funds for public works projects, including making repairs to more than 30,000 schools.”
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, reaffirmed in a Fox News Sunday interview on July 10, 2011, that “the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term President.”
The greatest political trap that Republicans could find themselves in is for voters to conclude that their refusal to compromise on the American Jobs Act is driven by their #1 priority, to make Obama a one-term president.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 9/22: Mitt Romney likely GOP nominee
- Rick Perry will collapse under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush.
- If Perry wins the nomination, most Americans will likely see him as a 3rd Bush term (Bush’s job approval was 25% in 2008), weakening his chances in a General Election.
- Romney will win out of the current field because he will be the last one standing after the others self-destruct. Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Republican and Tea Party support … and he has yet to generate much enthusiasm among right-wing conservatives.
- Recent polls show 51% of Republicans would prefer someone other than the current slate.
- NJ Governor Christ Christie can defeat Obama. Filing/running required.
U.S. Senate UPDATE 9/22: Republicans will win the U.S. Senate majority
- Currently 51/47 Democrat majority w/2 Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Big GOP Advantage: Of 33 US Senate seats up for grabs, 21 are currently held by Democrats and 2 held by Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Only 10 Republican seats are up for grabs in 2012, most deemed safe.
- GOP needs to win 4 of the 21 Democratic seats for majority (if they hold what they have).
U.S. House UPDATE 9/22: Republicans risk losing U.S. House majority
Republicans are clearly at risk of losing the majority in the US House of Representatives, as uncompromising Tea Party zealots will alienate independents as well as defeat/weaken GOP incumbents, rendering them vulnerable to moderate Democrats in swing districts.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, chided the 48 Republicans in his caucus this morning for rejecting the stopgap government funding bill on Wednesday, causing the bill to fail. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen,” Boehner told reporters today.
The uncompromising actions of the Tea Party Republicans in the U.S. House have led to fears of a government shutdown reminiscent of the one under former Speaker Newt Gingrich, an event that led to the loss of confidence in Republicans … and the loss of the majority in Congress to the Democrats.
U.S. House Republicans cannot lose more confidence in their ability to lead. There’s none left.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
NEW Premium Monthly Subscription! Due to popular demand, a monthly rate for the $245 half-price Premium Annual Subscription to the John Davis Political Report is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time).
Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 1 “In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: ‘Jobs’ and
[More…]
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 1
“In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: ‘Jobs’ and ‘Economy.’ It was a reminder to stay focused on the issues most important to the voters.“
Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
This is a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that begins today with Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and, later this afternoon, Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama.
Why the NC GOP Must Form a Political Coalition with Independents
Wednesday, I had the pleasure of serving as the guest commentator for the monthly Civitas poll luncheon here in Raleigh. Civitas’ August poll focused exclusively on Independent voters, a smart move in light of the fact that Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina now number 24% of the state’s 6,139,690 registered voters.
For emphasis: there are 1,482,315 (24%) Unaffiliated voters registered in North Carolina, compared to 1,934,499 Republicans (32%) and 2,711,322 Democrats (44%).
Although Republicans are enjoying unprecedented power in Raleigh and making the Democrats miserable in Washington DC, if they do not win the Independent vote their power will be short lived. There are simply not enough Republicans in North Carolina to ignore Independents.
Last month, in the July Civitas poll, 8 of 10 North Carolina voters said they split their ticket. Only 8% said they “Always vote Republican;” with 32% saying they “Vote Republican more often than Democrat.” As to the loyal opposition, 13% said they “Always vote Democrat,” with 25% saying they “Vote Democrat more than Republican.” Neither party can ignore Independents.
Although I am not permitted to share the specific August poll results due to Civitas’ upcoming release schedule, I am permitted to make the following general statements about the results:
- Independent NC voters blame both parties equally for the loss of the country’s AAA credit rating.
- Independent voters have a considerably less-than-favorable view of US House Speaker John Boehner, viewing him the same as US Senate Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid.
- President Obama’s favorable rating is considerably higher than both Congressional leaders.
Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands
Civitas, one of the seasoned leaders in the statewide conservative movement, is wise to conduct a study that shows conservatives that they just may return the reins of political power back to the hands of liberal Democrats if they don’t form a political coalition with Independent voters.
If all you have is 1,934,499 Republican voters out of 6,139,690 total voters, you had better form a coalition with someone or you are going to be left out in the cold. A successful political coalition can be formed only if you take the time to find out what your potential allies want out of government and meet them halfway between what they want and what you want. That’s the added value of the Civitas poll of Independent voters … you find out what they want.
In 2008, President Obama won the keys to the Oval Office and Democrats seized control of the Congress because the Independent voters abandoned the Republican Bush Administration and Congressional Republicans.
In 2009, Republicans won the Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey because Independent voters soured on the Democrats … flipping from 2-to-1 Democratic leaning in 2008 to 60/40 Republican leaning in 2009.
In January 2010, Republicans won Sen. Teddy Kennedy’s US Senate seat in Massachusetts because Independents flipped from 2-to1 Democratic-friendly in 2008 to 2-to1 GOP-friendly.
In 2010, Republicans enjoyed unprecedented victories throughout the nation at all levels because Independent voters turned on the Democrats and voted for Republicans.
In 2010, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis handed out red wristbands to all GOP House caucus candidates that had two words stamped on them: “Jobs” and “Economy.” It was a reminder to stay focused on the issues most important to the voters.
The GOP wristband for the 2012 elections needs three words: “Jobs” “Economy” “Independents.” You can’t win without them.
Republicans in Congress have lost the respect of the American voters because they have allowed the most conservative among them to set the agenda during the debt ceiling debate, thereby running off moderate Republicans and Independents. The same thing could happen here.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Monthly Subscription $245. Premium Election Cycle Subscription $315 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate for Premium Annual Subscription is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time). Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis The
[More…]
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated
North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated
Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Political Conclusions
Click here to see the New NC Senate Map Proposed by the NC General Assembly
- UPDATE: 14 of North Carolina’s 100 counties have ½ of the state’s 6.1 million voters. Under the new state Senate maps, half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of those 14 counties. The counties are: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Durham, Buncombe, New Hanover, Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Pitt, Catawba and Iredell.
- UPDATE: The other half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of 86 counties.
- UPDATE: Mecklenburg County has 10% of the 50 Senate districts; Wake another 10%.
- UPDATE: During the past decade, 87 counties had a combined net population growth of 481,376, about the same as Wake and Mecklenburg combined.
- We are witness to the urbanization of political power in North Carolina.
- Under the new Senate districts, the majority party will likely be Republican for the remainder of the decade as there are 34 districts won by US Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race, 29 districts won by State Sen. Robert Pittenger in his 2008 race for lieutenant governor, and 26 districts won by US Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her last race against U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan in 2008.
- The GOP advantage in the number of Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican and the likely first ever Republican fund-raising advantage argue for a long-term Republican Senate majority in North Carolina.
- In 2008, there were 30 Senate districts that gave McCain a 50% or greater win, with 22 districts giving McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
- Under the new maps, there are 34 Senate districts that would have given McCain a 50%-or-greater win, with 27 that would give McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
Surprises & Interesting Notes
- Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and Senate President Pro Tem, is double-bunked with Sen. Don Vaughan, a Guilford County Democrat. Burger appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (51% to 45% Perdue) and McCain (57% to 43% Obama).
- Sen. Pete Brunstetter, a Forsyth County Republican, is double-bunked with Sen. Linda Garrou, a Forsyth County Democrat. Brunstetter appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (56% to 41% Perdue) and McCain (61% to 39% Obama).
- Sen. Debbie Clary, a Cleveland County Republican, is double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Warren Daniel from Burke County. Clary announced last month her intentions to resign. Her replacement will have to face Sen. Daniel.
- Sen. Jerry Tillman, a Randolph County Republican, has been double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Harris Blake from Moore County. Randolph County will have the advantage in the Republican primary.
- CORRECTED: Only two Senate Democrats were double-bunked: Sen. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Sen. Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) reside in the new Senate District 23, including all of Orange and Chatham counties.
Most Vulnerable Incumbents
- The most vulnerable Democrat senators, not counting those who are double bunked with a Republican, are Sen. Doug Berger from Franklin County, Sen. Bill Purcell from Scotland County, and Sen. Stan White from Dare County (Sen. Basnight’s old seat).
- The most vulnerable Republican senator, not counting those who are double bunked, is Sen. Wesley
- Meredith from Cumberland County (Sen. Tony Rand’s old seat).
- There are 9 majority-minority districts where the minority voting age population is 50% or greater. One district, Senate District 13, combines Robeson County and Columbus County to achieve a minority district that includes American Indian, Hispanic and African-Americans.
Legal Limits Established by GOP Stephenson Decision Limit GOP Gerrymandering
Republicans achieved one of the greatest political coups in North Carolina politics in 2003 by successfully litigating the radically gerrymandered maps drawn by the Democratic legislative majority following the 2000 census.
The Stephenson v. Bartlett decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court established new requirements for legislative redistricting in North Carolina that, ironically, now limit the ability of Republicans to do to Democrats what they have done to Republicans for many decades: radical partisan gerrymandering.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were 6 swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and rulings in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case, the courts in 2003 leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and 4 were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
This year, the Stephenson case has forced Republicans to comply with the following:
Voting Rights Act districts must be drawn first to ensure compliance with federal law.
- Population deviations must be within plus-or-minus 5% of the ideal district population.
- Creating districts within counties (urban counties) or by combining whole counties is required until it is no longer possible to create a district without using a part of a county.
- Example: Wake County now has 5 senate districts, 4 within the county and one in combination with all of Franklin County. Mecklenburg County has 5 districts, all within the county lines.
Before the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina looked more like a 1000-piece puzzle. After the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina look more like a state map of the counties. See the Legislative Guide to Redistricting for all law relating to remapping.
Sophisticated Mapping Technology Allows Long-range Maps
As with the congressional maps released two weeks ago, the changes in the new Senate maps are as politically significant as they are subtle, illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
Adding to the likelihood that Republicans will keep the Senate majority for the remainder of the decade is the fact that today’s remapping technology allows districts to be drawn with population growth projections.
– END –
Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
The ½ price July 4th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Need a speaker on redistricting? Contact me at www.johndavisconsulting.com/speaker-info
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Look for the “Donate” button at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre
[More…]
“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report
Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated
North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive Analysis
Last Friday, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first in North Carolina to receive a comprehensive analysis of the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative reapportionment committees. Today, I am sending a Revised/Updated edition of that report. Information presented in bold italics has been added. There are new links with each district analysis that provides hundreds of facts about each of the proposed new districts. Check them out!
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Conclusions:
- Under the new congressional districts, the partisan advantage will shift from 7 Democratic and 6 Republican to 8 Republican and only 3 guaranteed Democratic districts, with 2 that will depend on the strengths of the candidates and the prevailing partisan winds of the given election year.
- President Obama carried 8 NC congressional districts and Sen. McCain 5 in 2008. Under the 13 new districts, Obama would only carry 3 (Butterfield, Price and Watt).
- Only 4 of the current districts gave McCain a 55%-or-greater vote in 2008 (Jones, Foxx, Myrick and McHenry). There are now 10 districts that would have voted for McCain for president at 55% or greater (all but Butterfield, Price and Watt). The same 10 districts would give US Sen. Burr a 60%-or-greater victory.
- Gov. Perdue carried 9 of the 13 congressional districts in 2008, all but one greater than 50%. Under the new districts, Perdue would carry 5 (Butterfield, Jones, Price, McIntyre and Watt).
- GOP gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory only carried 4 congressional districts in 2008 (Foxx, Coble, Myrick and McHenry). If the election were held under the new congressional districts, he would add Elmers, Kissell, Shuler and Miller to his wins.
Key District-by-District Conclusions
- U.S. House District 1, currently held by Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 68% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 2, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Renee Elmers, has become a significantly more Republican-friendly district. This district was held throughout the last decade by Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge. The new district has 39% Democratic registration and 36% Republican registration, a 3% Democratic advantage. However, under the old map, Democrats enjoyed a 23% advantage with 51% registered Democrats to only 28% registered Republicans. Elmers squeaked out a win in Republican friendly 2010. She will still have to work hard to hold this seat, but the new map gives her an advantage at the starting line.
Key County Changes: Harnett County, home to both Elmers and Etheridge, is now split into three congressional districts (Price, Elmers and Coble), with about half remaining in the new congressional district. Elmers now has all of Sampson County and keeps all of Johnston County, both reliably Republican counties. This district no longer has any of the Franklin County and Nash County precincts, making it a stronger Republican opportunity district. New territory includes precincts in Wake, Cumberland and Wayne. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 3, currently held by Republican Congressman Walter Jones, will likely always elect Jones as long as he runs. Jones and his father have held this district for over four decades. However, this district is now a swing district that could be won by a strong conservative Democrat once Jones retires. Remember, there are lots of eastern North Carolina “Reagan Democrats” in this district. Democratic registration increases considerably under the new maps from 41% to 49%; Republicans lose market share from 35% to 30%. McCain would still beat Obama in this district by about 56% to 44%. However, Perdue would defeat McCrory under the new maps by 55% to 44%, whereas she beat McCrory in this congressional district in 2008 by 49% to 48.4%.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County, both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 3 has all of Duplin, Jones, Dare, Beaufort and Craven Counties, and substantial parts of Pitt, Nash and Lenoir. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 4, currently held by Democratic Congressman David Price, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a solid Democratic district where Democrats now have a 35% registration advantage over Republicans (54% Democrats to 19% Republicans, with 27% Unaffiliated).
Key County Changes: Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Orange and northern Durham with a history of voting Republican in federal races have been taken out of Price’s district and moved to Miller’s district. That’s good for Price, a Democrat, and bad for Miller, a Democrat. Precincts in southern Wake County with a history of voting Republican in federal elections have been taken out of Price’s district and put into Republican Renee Elmers’ district, a move that helps both camps. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 5, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, has a bit fewer Republicans and more Democrats but Republicans still outnumber the loyal opposition and will continue find this district a safe harbor for GOP candidates.
Key County Changes: Although Foxx loses Surry and Stokes counties to Miller, she keeps some of the most Republican districts in the state. Wilkes, Yadkin and Davie counties are 3 of the only 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932! GOP precincts in Rockingham and Forsyth counties have been taken out and put into Miller’s district. Not good for Miller. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 6, currently held by Republican Congressman Howard Coble, has fewer Republicans and more Democrats but would still choose McCain over Obama by 55% to 44%, whereas under the old configuration McCain defeated Obama by a much wider margin, 63% to 36% (Statewide: Obama 49.7%; McCain 49.4%).
Key County Changes: Coble looses his share of Davidson and Rowan, keeps all of Moore County and much of what he had in Randolph, Guilford and Alamance Counties. He picks up most of Chatham County, almost all of Lee, and portions of Harnett and Cumberland. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 7, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre, has 9% fewer Democrats but still gives McIntyre a fighting chance. Although McCain defeated Obama here under the old map by 5%, McCain would defeat Obama here under the new maps by 55% to 44%. On the other hand, Perdue would still beat Republican gubernatorial candidate McCrory here by 6 points, but not nearly as bad as the 11 point shellacking she gave him here in 2008. McIntyre maintains a fighting chance.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County (94%), both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 7 has all of Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Onslow and Pender. Democratic-friendly parts of Cumberland, Duplin and Robeson counties have been taken out of this district. McIntyre still has a fighting chance here, but not much more than a fighting chance. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 8, currently held by Democratic Congressman Larry Kissell, has been reconfigured in such a way that Kissell can no longer win. This district was held by GOP Congressman Hayes for most of the decade. It now has more registered Republicans and fewer Democrats and a shifted from a 52% Obama district to a 44% Obama district. Likewise, it has shifted from a 47% McCrory district to a 53% McCrory district. Gov. Perdue carried this district by 51% in one of the best years for voter registration and turnout of Democrats in modern political history. In the absence of the extraordinary advantage that Democrats enjoyed as a result of the historic campaign of President Obama, this now becomes a very difficult district for them to hold.
Key County Changes: Parts of three strong Republican counties, Randolph, Davidson and Rowan, have been added to House District 8, strengthening the prospects of Republicans regaining their seat once held by GOP Congressman Hayes. Several reliably Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County have been moved into Congressman Mel Watt’s U.S. House District 12, taking “about 37,000 African Americans away from Kissell,” reports the News & Observer/Charlotte Observer. Mecklenburg County had 17% of the district under the old map; only 5.5% under the new map. Cumberland County had 20% of the old district; none of the new district. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 9, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Myrick, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a GOP stronghold where Republican gubernatorial nominee McCrory, former mayor of Charlotte, won the district with 65% of the vote and would win again with 67% of the vote as it is newly configured.
Key County Changes: Myrick lost friendly precincts in Gaston County to Congressman McHenry. However, that loss is offset by a gain of GOP precincts in northern Mecklenburg County (Town of Davidson), southern Iredell County, and new precincts in northeastern Union County . Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 10, currently held by Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry, has about 5% fewer Republicans but continues as a GOP stronghold. President Obama would still lose to McCain here by 57% to 42% and Perdue would still lose to McCrory here by about that same margin.
Key County Changes: McHenry picks up all of Gaston County, his home county and solid Republican territory. He loses GOP strongholds Mitchell, Avery and Caldwell, as well as and Burke County, to Shuler’s district. McHenry picks up all of Polk County and the eastern side of Buncombe County, including Asheville. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 11, currently held by Democratic Congressman Heath Shuler, has now become a safe harbor for Republicans. The anchor for Democrats in this district has always been Buncombe County, particularly Asheville. Not only has half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, been put into Congressman McHenry’s safe Republican district, but several of the most Republican counties in the state have been moved from districts held by Congresswoman Foxx and Congressman McHenry to Heath Shuler’s district. Keep in mind, this district was held by Republican Congressman Charles Taylor for 12 years. It was already a leaning Republican district. Shuler, an exceptionally strong and attractive candidate, has been able to hang onto the seat because he is a great candidate and he votes like a Republican.
Key County Changes: Shular picks up Mitchell, Caldwell, Burke and Avery Counties. All but Burke County are reliably Republican counties. Avery and Mitchell counties are 2 of the 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover against Roosevelt in 1932. Now that’s Republican! He loses the eastern half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, and all of Polk County. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 12, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mel Watt, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 64% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 13 is currently held by Democratic Congressman Brad Miller. As expected, North Carolina Congressman Miller has been drawn into a district he cannot win. Turnabout is fair play. When he chaired the NC Senate reapportionment committee 10 years ago, he drew himself a congressional district he could not lose. Now he’s in a district he cannot win. Registered Democrats plummeted from 51% to 41% and Republicans increased their ranks from 26% to 37%. Under the current district, Obama received 59% to only 40% for McCain. Under the new map, McCain would beat Obama by 56% to 44%. Amazing! Perdue’s market share plummets under the new map from 57% to 45% while McCrory’s market share increases from 39% to 52%.
Key County Changes: Stokes and Surry counties, both reliably Republican in national elections, have been added to Miller’s district. Reliably Democratic precincts in Guilford County have been removed. Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Alamance, northern Orange and northern Durham counties have been added. Republican precincts in western Guilford County and eastern Forsyth County stay. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
Surprises & Interesting Notes:
- All 13 incumbents still reside in their new districts (no double bunking).
- There is no third majority-minority district as many had speculated.
- Despite the Republican-friendly change in the rematch in of the congressional districts, one Democrat, North Carolina Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, would still carry all of them.
- The basis of the new map is the old map. At a glance, they look very similar.
- The changes in the maps are as politically significant as they are subtle; illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
- Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.
Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
– END –
The ½ price July 4th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Need a speaker on redistricting? Contact me at www.johndavisconsulting.com/speaker-info
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Look for the “Donate” button at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
[[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/How-Far-Right-Can-GOP-Push-NC.mp3|titles=How Far Right Can GOP Push NC]] “Originally, blowback was CIA internal coinage denoting the unintended, harmful consequences – to friendly populations and military forces – when a given weapon is carelessly used.” en.wikipedia.org Search: blowback Post June 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 13 Blowback: Unintended, Harmful Consequences This report is an
[More…]
[[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/How-Far-Right-Can-GOP-Push-NC.mp3|titles=How Far Right Can GOP Push NC]]
“Originally, blowback was CIA internal coinage denoting the unintended, harmful consequences – to friendly populations and military forces – when a given weapon is carelessly used.” en.wikipedia.org Search: blowback
Post June 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 13
Blowback: Unintended, Harmful Consequences
This report is an analysis of the long-term political implications of the just-ended historic session of the North Carolina General Assembly. Although the implications apply to both parties, the primary focus is the evaluation of the legislative actions taken by the Republican majority.
First, my sincerest congratulations to the first GOP majority in the NC General Assembly since 1870 on their many good successes. You do not have to be a Republican to appreciate the inherent value of giving the leadership reins to new faces and seeing them try new ideas on intractable problems.
However, the long-term political prospects for Republicans are dependant on whether those ideas work. They are also dependent on whether Republicans try to push North Carolinians too far to the right.
Political power is like a weapon that if carelessly used will cause unintended, harmful consequences … blowback. Barack Obama and the Democratic Party found that out in 2010.
Three Secrets for a Long-term Republican Majority
Republicans won the opportunity to lead the state by staying focused on jobs and the economy during the 2010 campaigns at a time of great economic crisis. They also won the opportunity to lead the state because the voters lost confidence in the Democrats and there were no other choices on the ballot.
Most voters could care less what the party affiliation is of the team that restores financial health and fiscal sanity to our nation and state. Likewise, most voters could care less what the ideological label is pinned to the solution to turning around our dreadful unemployment numbers.
Secret #1: Lead from the Center
North Carolinians did not have a partisan conversion experience in 2010. This is not a Republican state. This is not a Democratic state. This is a center-right battleground state where no political party has a majority and where independent moderates decide the outcome of all statewide races.
Take a look at the Gallup study of the party affiliation shift away from Democrats in the states from 2008 to 2010. North Carolina is among the states with the least change in party affiliation.
Gallup 2/21/2011: Number of Solidly Democratic States Cut in Half From ’08 to ‘10
North Carolina is among the states with the least change in party affiliation.
- In February, Gallup released a study of party affiliation in the states showing that Democrats lost ground in every single state and the District of Columbia from 2008 to 2010.
- The greatest losses were in states like Rhode Island (-12.2%), New Hampshire (-11.3%), Maine (-10.9%) and Hawaii (-10.1%).
- North Carolina, with a -4.0% loss for Democrats, was among the states with the least change.
- As to rank, 43 states showed greater losses for Democrats than North Carolina.
- According to Gallup, North Carolina is a “Lean Democratic” state.
The voters who elected Barack Obama still live here.
Secret #2: Own education.
Barack Obama made a big mistake by pushing his personal agenda ahead of the priorities of a majority of the voters in the country. He wanted healthcare. They wanted jobs. It cost him and his party the majority in Congress and in many state legislatures including ours.
The priorities of the people who have denied the GOP a majority in the General Assembly for 140 years have not changed. Granted, right now their number one priority is jobs and the economy. However, despite the economic crisis, education remains a close second.
Republicans must own education.
The May poll results from Civitas show education as more important to North Carolinians than all items tested except jobs and the economy.
Civitas Institute 5/10-11/2011: May Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey
Education ranks #2 as the most important issue.
- Civitas poll question: “For each issue, tell me on a scale of 1 to 10 how important that issue is in terms of how you will vote in the next North Carolina legislative election.”
- Education was ranked #2 as the most important issue in terms of how voters will vote in the next North Carolina legislative elections, second only to “economy and jobs.”
- Click on the link above and go to questions 10 through 16 and you will see that “education” was seen as more important in deciding how to vote next year than “government spending, government ethics and corruption, taxes, immigration, and roads/highways.”
Secret #3: Compassionate conservatism.
Newt Gingrich and the congressional Republicans lost the majority after the last great Republican revolution because they were perceived as lacking in compassion. That’s why I believe that the biggest mistake made by Republicans during their first turn at the helm was using unemployment benefits as a trump card in their budget battle with the governor.
Hard-line conservatism will get you in political hot water in the new North Carolina.
Take a look at a Gallup study below and compare the liberal, moderate and conservative leanings of voters in the different states based on 350,000 responses to polling during 2010.
Gallup 2/25/2011: Mississippi Rates as the Most Conservative U.S. State
North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are the least conservative Southern states.
- In February, Gallup released a study of political ideology in the states showing that conservatives outnumber liberals in every U.S. state.
- Only the District of Columbia has more liberals than conservatives.
- The top 10 most conservative states are Mississippi, Idaho, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah, South Dakota, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Carolina and Arkansas.
- The top 10 most liberal states are District of Columbia, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, Colorado, Washington and New Jersey.
- North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are the least conservative Southern states and the only states in the South carried by President Barack Obama.
- As to rank, 21 states are more conservative than North Carolina.
NC statewide polls by Civitas Institute 5/10-11/2011 May Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey and by Public Policy Polling 6/8-11/2011 June Poll Results – North Carolina Statewide Voter Survey showed the same percentage of conservatives: PPP 44%; Civitas 43%.
Compassionate conservatism shows strength of character and is appreciated by most voters. Maybe the perceived lack of compassion for the unemployed is why the same PPP poll shows significantly greater unfavorable voter opinion of Republicans (46%) than favorable (33%). After all, voters supported extending unemployment benefits by 2-to-1 (60% support; 29% oppose).
So, how far right can North Carolina Republicans push their conservative legislative agenda without creating a political blowback? Not that far in North Carolina. It’s not a conservative Republican state.
– END –
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here. July 4th 1/2 Price Sale! Only $245 for Premium Annual Subscription!
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Scroll down for the “Donate” button in the right sidebar on the home page.
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/JDPR-5-26-11-Legal-Mischief1.mp3|titles=JDPR 5 26 11 Legal Mischief] Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in
[More…]
Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in Myrtle Beach. If you are interested in a presentation on the political implications of redistricting for 2012 politics, click here.
Most Fun You Can Legally Have
Mercedes Benz has an ad on TV claiming that driving one of their “C Class” cars is the most fun you can legally have. Wrong. Drawing your political party an advantage over a $20 billion budget for the next 10 years while disrupting the opposition without getting indicted … now that’s the most fun you can legally have.
You can’t govern if you don’t win a majority of the legislative seats. One of the best ways to stack the deck in your favor is to draw a majority of seats predisposed to choosing your candidates. But only the party in the majority after each census can claim the drawing tools. In 2011, it’s the Republicans.
Miller’s Millstone: Rucho’s Right of Retributive Justice
US Congressman Brad Miller, D-Wake, is serving his last term whether he has accepted his fate or not. Why? He “double-bunked” the Chairman of the NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago.
No one understands the devastating political consequences of redistricting better than someone who got “double-bunked” by the majority party mapmakers. Double-bunking occurs when two incumbents from the same party are drawn into the same district. If you are double-bunked you have two choices: run against each other in a brutal and expensive primary, or someone has to agree to go home.
That’s what happened 10 years ago … to none other than Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, the current Chairman of the Senate Redistricting Committee. Who served as Chairman of NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago? None other than US Congressman Brad Miller.
Then-state Senator Brad Miller put GOP Senators Robert Pittenger and Bob Rucho, both from Mecklenburg County, in the same district. Rucho decided to bow out rather than risk a fortune trying to beat one of the wealthiest members of the state Senate in a primary race in an expensive media market.
Sen. Rucho went home and practiced dentistry for most of the decade. Then-Sen. Brad Miller drew himself a safe Democratic U.S. House seat (connects Raleigh and Greensboro by way of the Virginia border counties) and spent the remainder of the decade as a member of the United States Congress.
In 2008, Sen. Pittenger resigned. Bob Rucho was appointed to fill his unexpired term. In 2010, the GOP won a 31-19 majority in the NC Senate. Now, low and behold, look who is chairing the NC Senate Redistricting Committee!!! None other than Sen. Bob Rucho.
Miller is history.
A couple of other Democrats in the congressional delegation also need to be pricing moving companies for the big haul back to their respective hometowns. According to press accounts: Mike McIntire, D-Robeson and Larry Kissell, D-Montgomery are the #2 and #3 GOP targets after Miller, followed by Heath Shuler, D-Swain. We will find out who has a target on their backs in a couple of weeks.
Remedy for Overindulging at the Smorgasbord of Legal Mischief
The modern era of remapping congressional and legislative districts typically begins with the majority party overindulging at the smorgasbord of partisan mischief, only to have the minority party lawyers file suits against the maps … suits that receive an unfavorable ruling by majority party judges but are eventually reversed and remanded by the minority party appellate courts and ultimately appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which hands down a 5-4 decision going one way or the other depending on which party was in the White House at the time of the most recent retirement of a justice. Or, so it seems.
In June, the new Republican versions of congressional and state legislative maps will be unveiled. This much you can count on: Step 1: Republicans will draw themselves a political advantage. Step 2: the state or federal courts or the Obama Justice Department will take much of that advantage away.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were six swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Republicans sued. Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and a dozen rulings, the courts leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and four were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
Maps Give You a Head Start; Money Wins the Race
Democrats made up for their losses in the courts by parlaying their political power into a fundraising advantage, outspending Republicans 3-to-1 in legislative races for the remainder of the decade, thereby reestablishing their dominance. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Republicans were never able to build on the good success of their redistricting litigation, even in GOP-friendly years, because of their inability to raise a competitive war chest.
The financial disparity changed in 2010, primarily because the Democratic leadership imploded under the strain of the worst recession since the Great Depression, high legislative and party leadership turnover, political scandal, and a President who could no longer inspire turnout. While Democrats floundered, Republicans united behind a strong team of political leadership and attained unprecedented fundraising success … and unprecedented political success with the takeover of the General Assembly.
In 2008, NC Senate Democrats raised $9.7 million, doubling the $4.1 million raised by NC Senate Republicans. In 2010, NC Senate Democrats raised only $8.8 million, down 9.1%, while NC Senate Republicans achieved an unprecedented 93.1% increase over 2008 with $7.9 million.
In 2008, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million, tripling the $3.4 million raised by NC House Republicans. In 2010, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million again, while NC House Republicans doubled their 2008 total with $6.8 million, a 102% increase.
The odds of another election year during which everything goes wrong for the Democrats while the GOP is doing everything right are slim to none. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Past Legal Mischief Foretells the Legal Mischief Coming in June
Last Thursday, I served on a panel on redistricting sponsored by the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Department. Panelists included Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, Sen. Dan Blue, D-Wake, former Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, and Rep. Leo Daughtry, R-Johnston, a member of the NC House Redistricting Committee.
Rep. Daughtry reminded us that he was a state senator prior to the 1990 redistricting, when he was mapped out of his home territory and forced to run for the House. Daughtry also reminded us that in 2000 he and GOP House member Billy Creech were “double bunked” into the same district. Creech retired.
NC Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, R-Watauga was state Sen. Virginia Foxx 10 years ago when she was double-bunked with Sen. John Garwood, R-Wilkes. Foxx chose to run for US Congress instead. NC Congressman Patrick McHenry, R-Gaston was state Rep. Patrick McHenry 10 years ago when he was double-bunked with Rep. John Rayfield, R-Gaston. He chose to run for US Congress.
This is what you can expect in a couple of weeks, except that it will be the Democrats who will suffer at the hands of Republican map makers. And it will all be legal … legal mischief nonetheless, and the most fun you can legally have!
Remember, Democrats set the standard of fairness for redistricting congressional and legislative districts in North Carolina, and you can count on Republicans to lower themselves to that same standard.
– END –
Subscribe to the John Davis Political Report here.
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Scroll down for the “Donate” button in the right sidebar on the home page.