Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30 “The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.” Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2,
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Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30
“The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.”
Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: GOP U.S. Presidential Ticket
Yesterday’s John Davis Political Report suggested that the Republican Presidential ticket in 2012 was likely to be Romney-Gingrich, and that President Obama may have to replace Vice President Biden with a business person, like Erskine Bowles, in order to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who has the credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Gingrich brings two valuable/essential political assets to the GOP ticket: staying power (he’s as tough skinned, politically savvy and as intelligent as anyone), and conservative bona fides. No Democrat will defeat Gingrich in a Vice Presidential debate, and no Republican will spark more enthusiasm among Tea Party economic conservatives and Republican social conservatives than Gingrich.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 11/3/2011: Romney-Gingrich likely GOP Ticket
- Romney’s seasoning will win him the nomination … as the last contender standing.
- However, Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Tea Party support as well as the support of the most conservative Republicans … who don’t like him at all.
- Romney: has been at 25% all year, meaning 75% of the GOP prefer someone else.
- Newt Gingrich: will bring conservative enthusiasm to the ticket.
- Rick Perry: will continue to implode under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush. Fear of a third Bush term will be his doom. (Oct 2008 Bush job approval was 25%; Obama job approval today is: 45%)
- Herman Cain: is through due in part to an inept campaign manager (thinks blowing cigarette smoke into the camera in a TV ad is politically clever) and no campaign organization (try turning out Iowa caucus voters on a cold rainy January day without a ground game). Cain’s apparent strategy, winning the White House with a “There’s a sucker born every minute” snow job, was doomed from the start. His poor crisis management in the face of sexual harassment allegations is confirmation of the ineptitude of his campaign manager and his not ready for prime time candidacy.
- Ron Paul: too old at age 76 to begin an administration (Reagan oldest at 69; Wm. H. Harrison was 67); doubts about electability continue to plague the Paul camp.
- Rick Santorum: too angry/whiny/defensive (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.8%)
- Michelle Bachmann: too happy (Real Clear Politics polls average 3.8%); “out of money and ideas,” says Ed Rollins, Bachmann’s former campaign manager.
- John Huntsman: Obama’s Ambassador to China (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.2%)
- Newt Gingrich: the conservative’s conservative; great debater; staying power at the presidential level.
Gingrich will pick up Cain’s Votes in NC and US
North Carolina: Today’s Public Policy Polling survey shows GOP support for Gingrich at 22%, ahead of Romney’s 19%. Although Cain leads the list at 30%, his days are numbered. Gingrich will inherit most of Cain’s votes in North Carolina.
Perry has 10% among NC Republicans, Bachmann 4%, Paul 4%, Huntsman 2% and Santorum 2%.
National Republican Presidential: Although in the Real Clear Politics polling average for Gingrich runs behind Cain (26%), Romney (24%) and Perry (10%), he is more likely than Perry to pick up Cain’s votes … which will put him ahead of Perry within the month.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29 “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011 Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President On Labor Day, September 2, 2011,
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Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29
“I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.”
Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, including the GOP Presidential Nominee. Here are updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 11/2/2011: Obama wins
- Today’s Real Clear Politics polling average: Obama at 45% approval; 49.6% disapproval.
- Today, Gallup polling average has Obama’s job approval at 45%, with 48% disapproving.
- If Obama’s job approval is only 5 points from a winning 50% approval rating during worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, then any sustained measure of growth in jobs/economy will restore his political viability.
- Today’s Public Policy Polling release shows Obama’s job approval in NC the same as the national figures: 45% approve; 50% disapprove.
- The PPP poll shows Obama virtually tied in North Carolina with Romney, and 3 to 8 points ahead of all other GOP contenders.
Running Against “Obstructionist” Republicans May Not be Enough
Although President Obama will continue to run with some success against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress, that strategy alone will not likely be enough to restore the confidence of Americans in his ability to lead the nation out of an economic crisis.
Despite the fact that Congressional job approval is at a dismal average of 12.7% per Real Clear Politics; 82.3% disapprove, the winning presidential ticket will be the one the voters see as most likely to deal most effectively with the great needs of the day: jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
If you think about the backgrounds of President Obama and Vice President Biden, there is very little that would give Americans confidence that they are the most capable among governmental leaders to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Romney-Gingrich Ticket a Serious Threat to Obama-Biden
A Romney-Gingrich ticket would be real threat to the Obama-Biden ticket because Romney has been in the private sector his entire life, with good success. Clearly he can make the better argument with Republicans, Tea Party conservatives and undecided Independent voters that he has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
So, what is Obama to do next year if he is losing the debate over who is most competent to deal with the great economic problems of the day? He has no choice but to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who brings business experience and sound fiscal management to the table.
Erskine Bowles is that someone.
Yesterday, Erskine Bowles told the Congressional Super Committee, “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” That’s the kind of no-nonsense straight forward commentary the people of America want to hear someone say to elected officials.
If Obama is losing ground next year and needs to strengthen the ticket with someone who has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness, there could not be a better choice than Bowles.
- Life-long successful businessman with MBA from Columbia
- Served on the board of many respected companies like GM, Morgan Stanley and Facebook
- Head of the U.S. Small Business Administration under President Clinton
- Chief of Staff to President Clinton during longest period of economic expansion in U.S. History
- Key negotiator on behalf of Clinton in the successful bipartisan talks that led to a balanced budget
- Headed a task force under Gov. Hunt on rural economic prosperity
- President of the University of North Carolina System 2006-2010
- Co-chair of President Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Just in case an Obama-Bowles ticket comes together, here is a bumper sticker for them to consider:
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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On December 19, 1998, after a year of Congressional investigations and testimony riddled with salacious scandal, the U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton. The next day, December 20, 1998, Clinton’s approval rating jumped ten points to 73 percent, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, an all time high for the embattled president, and higher
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On December 19, 1998, after a year of Congressional investigations and testimony riddled with salacious scandal, the U.S. House voted to impeach President Clinton. The next day, December 20, 1998, Clinton’s approval rating jumped ten points to 73 percent, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, an all time high for the embattled president, and higher than the highest approval rating ever achieved by President Ronald Reagan. At the same time, the number of Americans with a favorable view of the Republican Party fell ten points.
On Monday of this week, an Associated Press story1 reported that a new conservative group called Wake Up America has been organized here in North Carolina, a group intent on saving our state from corrupt, socialistic Democrats. Their TV ad2 states that “Corrupt Democrat leaders have been jailed in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008,” and raises the question, “Are NC Democrats the most politically corrupt in America?”
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