Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Voters Plan to Throw at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders October 17, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 11 3:13 pm Why Michael Moore Told Meet the Press that Trump Will Win Sunday morning, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in
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Trump is a Molotov Cocktail Voters Plan to Throw at a U.S. Government Rigged by Insiders for Insiders
October 17, 2016 Vol. IX, No. 11 3:13 pm
Why Michael Moore Told Meet the Press that Trump Will Win
Sunday morning, while reading the news of the firebombing of the Republican Party Headquarters in Orange County, I remembered that Michael Moore, the documentary film maker from Flint, Michigan, told Chuck Todd on Meet the Press, Sunday, October 2, 2016, that Donald Trump was a “human Molotov Cocktail” that on Election Day angry voters were going to “throw into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
Michael Moore, second only to Hillary Clinton as the Democrat Republicans despise the most, thinks Donald Trump will win the presidency for the same reason the British middle class voted to leave the European Union in the June 23, 2016 Brexit decision. Here is Moore’s pitch:
“From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”
Those are the voters that Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
The person who threw the Molotov Cocktail through the window at the GOP headquarters in Hillsborough over the weekend and painted “Nazi Republicans leave town or else,” was so angry at Republicans that he or she was willing to risk getting caught and going to jail.
That’s analogous to just how angry the Donald Trump voters are.
Read Michael Moore’s 5 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN. Admonishing Democrats for assuming that they have insurmountable advantages with demographic trends and the Electoral College map, Moore says, “If you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut.”
Why the Access Hollywood Tapes are Not Destroying Trump
Donald Trump is in bigger trouble than ever with voters because of evidence proving a history of predatory sexual behavior. From the Access Hollywood tape of lewd comments to interviews with numerous victims, most everyone believes it’s true.
As if his behavior is not bad enough, now Trump is digging himself into an even deeper hole by refusing to accept responsibility for his behavior and by claiming that his accusers are lying.
Most everyone believes it’s Trump who is lying.
So why, in light of Donald Trump’s lying about his lifelong history of sexually predatory behavior and lewd comments that objectify women, why does the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, released Sunday, October 16, 2016, show Clinton with a national lead among likely voters within the margin of error: Clinton 47%; Trump 43%; Johnson 5%; Stein 2%?
Why does the new CNN/ORC North Carolina poll, released at noon today, show Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by only 1 point (Clinton 48%; Trump 47%) despite the Access Hollywood scandal.
Clinton leads Trump in every category in today’s CNN/ORC poll except two: economy and honesty/trustworthy. What is most important to Trump voters? The economy and a leader who can be trusted to take on a rigged federal establishment.
Here in North Carolina, all four polls conducted since the Access Hollywood tape of Trump’s lewd comments show the same margin-of-error lead for Clinton:
- NBC News/WSJ Poll 9/10-12: Clinton 45%; Trump 41%; Johnson 9%
- Suffolk Univ Poll 10/10-12: Clinton 45%; Trump 43%; Johnson 5%
- Emerson College Poll 10/10-12: Clinton 46%; Trump 42%; Johnson 5%
- CNN/ORC 10/10-15: Clinton 48%; Trump 47%; Johnson 4%
Donald Trump is still in the running nationally and here in North Carolina because his voters see a federal government rigged by insiders in Washington, DC for the advantage of the privileged few, and the ideological left, as a bigger problem than sexually predatory behavior and lewd comments that objectify women.
In the Suffolk University poll conducted October 10-12 in North Carolina, only 13.6% of likely voters said the Access Hollywood tape changed their opinion in the presidential race.
Rich and Powerful Enough to Stand Up to the Rich and Powerful
Donald Trump voters see him as the only candidate in the race who is rich and powerful enough to stand up to the rich and powerful insiders who have ignored the fears and concerns of a middle-class electorate struggling to make ends meet, all the while growing the federal largess with borrowed money to a historic national debt of $19.7 trillion.
There are 3,144 counties in the United States. Think about where the top 10 richest counties would be in light of the wealth amassed around our great cities from Miami to Philadelphia, New York and Boston; Cleveland and Chicago; Seattle, San Francisco, LA; Phoenix, Denver, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte, and RTP.
The astounding fact is that 5 of the top 10 wealthiest counties in the United States out of a total of 3,144 are located in the Washington, DC area. Four of the 5 wealthiest counties are in Northern Virginia (Loudoun, Falls Church, Fairfax, Arlington), plus Howard County, MD.
Thanks to WikiLeaks and documents exposed through the Freedom of Information Act, everyone knows that Hillary Clinton is a principal partner in the architectural firm that has rigged the federal government for decades. Everyone knows that Hillary Clinton is a consummate insider who has exploited her revered national stature for private financial gain.
In 2013 alone, Hillary Clinton received $9,680,000 for speaking fees. According to an itemization of speeches on her 2013 IRS tax return, she received $225,000 for 34 of 41 speeches. The speeches were to Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.
On Saturday, October 15, 2016, WikiLeaks released transcripts of Hillary Clinton’s three speeches to Goldman Sachs for which she was paid $675,000.
Bernie Sanders questioned Hillary Clinton’s ability to lead as president because of her financial ties to Wall Street. Time and again he asked her to reveal the content of her speeches to prove that she had not sold her soul to those paying her a quarter of a million dollars for a talk.
Now, thanks to WikiLeaks, everyone knows she has been lying, too:
- Everyone knows that Clinton says one thing publicly about issues like fracking, open trade and open borders, and another thing privately.
- “You need both a public and private position,” she said … privately.
For Trump supporters, the biggest problem facing the nation is a federal government rigged by the insiders for the insiders … not sexually predatory behavior.
Hillary Clinton is Her Own Worst Enemy
Here are excerpts from Michael Moore’s 5 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN that make the case that Hillary Clinton is her own worst enemy:
- “Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary.”
- “She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected.”
- “Young women are among her biggest detractors.”
- “Not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her.”
- No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there.”
That’s the bottom line: the enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton just isn’t there. It’s because everyone knows that she is the consummate insider who rigged the system for personal financial gain and for the benefit of her insider friends around the nation … all the while neglecting “what we used to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats…”
When thinking about the firebombing in Hillsborough, consider just how stupid it was for someone to risk many years in jail just to make a political statement. Well, electing Donald Trump president may be stupid and risky, but that’s the degree of anger the voters have that Michael Moore is talking about when he said to Chuck Todd, “They see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail that they get to go into the voting booth on November 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable.”
– End –
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Democrat Roy Cooper’s Gubernatorial Campaign Under Siege by African Americans and Cops Who Feel Betrayed Over Shootings Cooper was Already on Thin Ice with Black Voters If African American turnout in Mecklenburg Country is down substantially this fall due to anger with Democratic leaders over the handling of the police killings in Charlotte,
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Democrat Roy Cooper’s Gubernatorial Campaign Under Siege by African Americans and Cops Who Feel Betrayed Over Shootings
Cooper was Already on Thin Ice with Black Voters
If African American turnout in Mecklenburg Country is down substantially this fall due to anger with Democratic leaders over the handling of the police killings in Charlotte, all Democrats running in competitive statewide races in North Carolina this fall, especially Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roy Cooper, will be in big trouble. Here’s why:
- There are 227,720 black voters in Mecklenburg County (33% of all county voters)
- Black voters are 74% of all Democrats (308,052) in Mecklenburg County
- More black voters in Mecklenburg County than all Democrats in 38 counties
Many Mecklenburg County black voters were already angry with Roy Cooper over his decision last August not to retry the Charlotte police officer who shot unarmed 24-year old Jonathan Ferrell 10 times on September 14, 2013.
Ferrell, a former Florida A&M football player, had been in a car accident and was attempting to get help when a confused resident called 911 and reported an attempted break-in. Three officers arrived. Ferrell moved towards them in a way that one officer, Randall Kerrick, felt was threatening. Kerrick fired the fatal 10 shots.
Officer Kerrick was not indicted by the first grand jury that heard the case. Attorney General Roy Cooper decided to present the case to a second grand jury. That’s why cops are mad at Cooper. The panel indicted Kerrick on charges of voluntary manslaughter in January, 2014.
The trial began last July. On August 21, 2015, a mistrial was declared by the judge when the jury deadlocked 8-4 after four days of deliberation. The judge’s decision to declare a mistrial was followed by protests in Charlotte that included rocks thrown at officers.
One week later, on August 28, 2015, Attorney General Roy Cooper announced that he would not retry the voluntary manslaughter case against the officer. Cooper said that he was persuaded that a second trial would also end with a deadlocked jury.
Jonathan Ferrell’s family wanted the state to retry the police officer, as did local political leaders like U.S. Rep. Alma Adams and Corine Mack, president of the Charlotte NAACP.
Rev. Dwayne Walker, pastor of Little Rock AME Zion Church, echoed the sentiments of many black Charlotteans when he told the Charlotte Observer, “I just don’t understand how an officer can get away with shooting an unarmed man 10 times.”
Most Democrats in Charlotte agreed.
According to a poll conducted last year immediately after the mistrial, August 26-27, 2015, by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, 6-of-10 Democrats (59%) said the officer in the Jonathan Ferrell case should be retried.
The NAACP, convinced that Roy Cooper had given up on the pursuit of justice, continued to call for a new trial throughout the state.
On September 10, 2015, The Wilmington Journal carried a statement by the NAACP titled, NC NAACP responds to Attorney General Roy Cooper’s refusal to retry officer Randall Kerrick for the wrongful death of Jonathan Ferrell.
Here are highlights (abridged):
- Randall Kerrick, a white officer in Charlotte NC, shot and killed Jonathan Ferrell, an unarmed black male college student. Ferrell was shot ten times.
- While he claims he was under duress, he never used any other form of reasonable force such as pepper spray, his baton or a Taser
- Attorney General Roy Cooper has refused to retry the case stating that, “his prosecutors believe unanimously that a retrial will not yield a different result.”
This year, throughout the state, local news sources have continued to report commentary critical of Attorney General Roy Cooper’s handling of racially sensitive cases. Example: February 24, 2016, Triad City Beat: “Cooper’s track record as attorney general has left many African-American leaders across North Carolina less than enthusiastic about his candidacy.”
Police Walk Out on Cooper over Kerrick Case; Endorse McCrory
For Roy Cooper, the Jonathan Ferrell case has become a lose-lose political dilemma. Not only did African Americans around the state feel betrayed by Cooper for not retrying the case against Randall Kerrick for killing the unarmed Ferrell, but law enforcement officers around the state also felt betrayed by Cooper for seeking an indictment against Kerrick in the first place.
As Jim Morrill noted in his August 16, 2016 story Lingering anger over Kerrick case boils up in N.C. governor’s race, about a third of the officers attending the state convention of the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) walked out on Attorney General Roy Cooper as he was attempting to justify his decision to prosecute Kerrick for shooting and killing Ferrell.
According to Randy Hagler, state president of the FOP, the Kerrick case was a significant factor in why the organization, with over 6,000 members statewide, voted to endorse North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory this year. (FOP endorsed Democrat Walter Dalton in 2012.)
“We don’t defend bad officers … we try to represent the officers who are on the line making split-second decisions, and that’s the heart and soul of this entire organization,” said one of the delegates to Cooper during the Q&A session.
Then, September 23, 2016. The killing of Keith Scott, another African American male, by a Charlotte police officer. A killing followed by rioting, looting, objects thrown at officers and a protester shot dead. A state of emergency. Police camera footage withheld from the public.
Black voters in Mecklenburg County are furious with Democratic Mayor Jennifer Roberts and the Democratic majority (9-2) Charlotte City Council over the way they managed the crisis. They expressed their fury Monday night at a chaotic city council meeting, calling for the resignation of Roberts and shouting such incendiary phrases as, “Hands down – Shoot back.”
If black voter turnout in Mecklenburg County is down substantially this fall due to anger with local and state Democratic officials, all Democrats running in competitive statewide races this fall, especially Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roy Cooper, will be in big trouble.
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Since 2000, there have been 40 statewide General Election races in North Carolina that came down to a male candidate vs a female candidate. Women won 31 of those 40 races, or 77.5%.
More significant, 24 of those 31 female winners were Democratic women. Only 7 were Republicans. Democratic women have defeated Republican men in 80% of statewide matchups since 2000.
Top 10 Keys for NC Democratic Political Recovery
Rule #5: There is Gold to be Mined among Professional Women for the Next Generation of Candidates and Campaign Leaders
July 30, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 15 10:13 am
Democratic Women Defeated GOP Men in 80% of Statewide Matchups
With the extinction of the once-powerful base of rural “Yellow Dog Democrats,” and the emergence of politically dominant urban voters, the state Democratic Party must shift its political gold mining operations to metropolitan regions for the next generation of candidates and campaign leaders.
Within these friendly geographical areas, Democrats must focus their political leadership gold mining operations on those constituencies where they are most likely to be successful.
This is where professional women come in. If I were advising Democrats in North Carolina on how to recover politically, I would tell them that their best hope is women. Specifically, professional women.
Democrats need strong candidates. Professional women. Democrats need campaign money. Professional women. Democrats need business leaders. Professional women. Democrats need political balance. Professional women. Democrats need strength of resolve. Professional women.
Here in North Carolina, women are registered in greater numbers than men. Women turn out to vote in higher percentages than men. Women favor Democrats over Republicans more often than not. The public policy priorities of women are more likely supported by Democrats. And, Democratic women have a well-established record of success for winning political campaigns against Republican men.
Since 2000, there have been 40 statewide General Election races in North Carolina that came down to a male candidate vs a female candidate. Women won 31 of those 40 races, or 77.5%.
More significant, 24 of those 31 female winners were Democratic women. Only 7 were Republicans. Democratic women have defeated Republican men in 80% of statewide matchups since 2000.
This report is the fifth in a 10-part series on the keys to political recovery for North Carolina Democrats. As with the previous series on the keys to Republican political longevity, no state legislator or legislative staff member was interviewed. All interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity. The rules thus far are:
- Rule #1: If You want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, You have to Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate.
- Rule #2: It’s All About Who Does the Asking; Get the Right Person to Ask the Right Person to do the Right Task.
- Rule #3 Moral Mondays – A Therapeutic Dose of Political Energy Restoring Rhythm to the Heart of the Democratic Party.
- Rule #4: Investors will Return to the Party of Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas when it has Bold, Visionary Leaders and Ideas.
Today I am adding Rule #5: There is Gold to be Mined among Professional Women for the Next Generation of Candidates and Campaign Leaders.
Women Nearing Parity in the Professions
With the enactment of Title IX in 1972, a law prohibiting gender discrimination in federally supported education programs and activities, female students have gone from having 17% fewer university degrees than men to having 25% more university degrees. According to the US Census Bureau:
- In 1960, 65.8% of all university degrees were awarded to men
- In 2009, only 41.3% of all university degrees were awarded to men.
- In 2009, 916,000 bachelor’s degrees were earned by women; 685,000 earned by men
Often referred to as the Emancipation Proclamation for women, Title IX has also had a great influence on the number of women with professional degrees from American universities. Consider these facts:
- In 1960, 51,000 master’s degrees were awarded to men; 24,000 to women
- In 2009, women received 397,000 master’s degrees; men 260,000
- In 2011, women earned almost 60% of all Masters degrees
- In 1960, 9,000 doctoral degrees were awarded to men; 1,000 to women
- In 2009, 35,000 doctoral degrees were awarded to women; 32,000 to men
- In 2010, 51.9% of those who earned doctoral degrees were women
- In 2011, women earned 32,970 of the doctoral degrees (52.5% of the total)
- 48.3% (16,838) of medical degrees awarded in the US in 2009-10 were earned by women
Thanks to the dramatic growth of women in the professions, women now make up about 1/3 of all doctors and lawyers in America, a number that will continue to grow as women make up half of the law school and medical school student bodies in American universities.
Female doctors rarely run for public office in North Carolina. However, they are financially capable of helping fund political committees. Female attorneys are the superstars of Democratic campaigners.
Female attorneys regularly run for statewide offices, including the Council of State races, Supreme Court and Court of Appeals. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is an attorney. So is US Senator Kay Hagan. Four of the seven members of the Supreme Court of North Carolina are female attorneys, including the Chief Justice (three of the four are Democrats), and six of the fifteen members of the North Carolina Court of Appeals are female attorneys (four of the six are Democrats).
All were elected in statewide campaigns.
Professional Women are Angry with Republicans in Raleigh
Today’s news is dominated by stories of professional women who are up in arms over legislative action taken by Republicans in Raleigh during the 2013 session. It is apparent in news stories about thousands of teachers among the largest crowd to attend Moral Monday protests or news about pro-choice activists holding vigil in front of the governor’s mansion, that a lot of women are mad at Republicans.
Why are so many professional women incensed by Republican legislative action in the 2013 session? Think about professions other than doctors and lawyers whose budgets got axed by Republicans.
The American Enterprise Institute published a report in September of 2012 showing doctoral and master’s degrees awarded in 2011 by fields of study and gender. Here are the key findings:
- 71.3% of Health Sciences doctoral degrees went to women
- 68.8% of Education doctoral degrees went to women
- 62.6% of Social, Behavioral Sciences doctoral degrees went to women
- 60% of Public Administration doctoral degrees went to women
Here are the master’s degrees awarded in 2011 by field of study and gender:
- 81.3% of Health Sciences master’s degrees went to women
- 76.8% of Education master’s degrees went to women
- 76.5% of Public Administration master’s degrees went to women
- 62.7% of Social, Behavioral Sciences master’s degrees went to women
Education. Healthcare. Public services. Women play key leadership roles in these professions. Women depend on these professions for their livelihood.
Whose budgets got axed?
Odds are pretty good that many professional women whose programs have lost funding due to budget cuts will be motivated to run in 2014 for the General Assembly. Others will be motivated to help candidates raise money or contribute to an independent expenditure campaign fund to help Democrats.
Ann Goodnight, long-time education advocate and wife of SAS CEO Jim Goodnight, writes in today’s News & Observer, “I am left stunned by the glaring lack of support for public education.” The Goodnights are among the wealthiest people in the world. She could fund a Super PAC at any level.
But what can be accomplished by Democrats in 2014 when Republicans have all of the advantages?
2014 Goals: Protect Hagan, Seize the Courts, Stop the Super Majority
The biggest prize for Democrats in 2014 is the U.S. Senate seat featuring incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan from Greensboro. Hagan is a strong candidate, well-liked by the U.S. Senate establishment. This translates into national financial resources which can be used for ground game operations like voter registration and turnout.
The second biggest prize for Democrats in 2014 is the state Supreme Court, where four of seven seats are up for grabs including that of the Chief Justice. There are many seasoned court candidates among Democratic women, and many more female attorneys biding their time for such an opportunity.
Finally, a third prize for Democrats in 2014 would be taking away the super majority status from either the state House or the Senate. You may not be able to advance the Democratic Party’s agenda without a majority in the state Senate and House, but you can thwart some of the Republican Party’s agenda if you take away the veto-proof super majority.
The House is more vulnerable, in part because Speaker Thom Tillis, one of the best political warfare generals around, is abandoning the legislative battlefield for his US Senate race against Kay Hagan. House seats are also more vulnerable to an underdog challenger because they are less expensive.
North Carolina Senate races would not be a good bet for cash-strapped Democrats in 2014. Competitive state Senate races are now $1 million campaigns and as sophisticated as congressional races.
The big break for the North Carolina Democratic Party could come as early as 2016 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for president. Clinton’s candidacy would likely result in record high volunteerism and turnout of women in America just like Barack Obama’s presidential nomination fueled record high volunteerism and turnout of African Americans in 2008 and 2012.
In my mind, 2016 could be the first opportunity for Democrats to win the majority in the North Carolina House and make headway towards taking back the North Carolina Senate four years later in 2020.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party must work towards the ideological balance needed to appeal to persuadable independent voters. Moral Monday protesters are important voices for the state Democratic Party, a life-restoring spark of political passion and energy. However, political recovery will require leaders who can raise money and appeal to moderate voters and business people.
Democrats need strong candidates. Professional women. Democrats need campaign money. Professional women. Democrats need business leaders. Professional women. Democrats need political balance. Professional women. Democrats need strength of resolve. Professional women.
Rule #5: There is Gold to be Mined among Professional Women for the Next Generation of Candidates and Campaign Leaders.
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Note: I wish to thank Madison McLawhorn, a Senior Communications major at North Carolina State University, for the excellent work she is doing as my student intern. Madison, from Winterville, is responsible for much of the research for this report, including interviews with professional women and the numbers on women in the professions.
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report! John N. Davis, Editor
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Rule #1: If You Want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate June 6, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 11 3:13 pm North Carolina was the last Southern state east of the Mississippi River to give Republicans exclusive power over state government and may be the first to give power back
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Rule #1: If You Want to Lead a Purple, Business-Friendly State, Recruit a Purple, Business-Friendly Slate
June 6, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 11 3:13 pm
North Carolina was the last Southern state east of the Mississippi River to give Republicans exclusive power over state government and may be the first to give power back to the Democrats … both for the same reason: we are a swing state dominated by urban voters and greatly influenced by education-oriented business leaders who run global corporations.
In North Carolina, neither party has an inherent partisan advantage. Ideologically, we are precariously balanced. Not a predictably Republican “red” state. Not a predictably Democratic “blue” state. We are a purple state; a purple state with an urban hue.
Demographic trends driven by population growth argue that Democrats have a bright future in North Carolina, and sooner than later at that if Republicans distance themselves too far to the ideological right on social and economic policy. Too far to the right for most urban voters, too far for most globally oriented business leaders, most women, and most of our emerging generation of young voters.
North Carolina, the 10th largest state in the nation, has grown at twice the national average for 20 years. Voter registrations have soared from 3.4 million in 1993 to 6.4 million voters today. In 2012, only about half of all voters were native North Carolinians.
Migration studies have consistently shown that most of North Carolina’s newcomers are not from the South. They are from states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York and New Jersey. Polls show that newcomers are far less likely than natives to be conservative.
Urban newcomers in North Carolina favor Democrats over Republicans. They are more moderate than conservative, more tolerant than intolerant, more independent than partisan and more pro-government than anti-government. They are more likely to see a direct and positive relationship between public investment and private sector competitiveness, between public investment and quality of life.
Twenty-one of the 28 members of the North Carolina Metro Mayors Association are Democrats. Half of the state’s voters are in only 13 of 100 counties. In the 2012 General Elections, when Republicans won majorities in the state House, the state Senate and won the Governor’s Mansion, those 13 urban counties gave President Obama 1,266,602 votes to Romney’s 976,703 votes.
Urban voters are the Democrats best hope for political recovery.
The 10-Part Series on Democratic Political Recovery
This report is the first in a 10-part series on the keys to political recovery for North Carolina Democrats. As with the previous series on Republican political longevity, no state legislator or legislative staff member was interviewed. All interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity.
During the months of June, July and August, these questions will be explored:
- How can Democrats raise a competitive war chest without power?
- What is the profile of the next generation of Democratic leaders?
- How can Democrats rebuild the trust of the state’s business community?
- Where are the targeted opportunities for 2014?
- Will private sector women provide Democrats their best hope for recovery?
- Will research park business leaders be repelled by GOP hardliners?
- What are the political recovery issues for Democrats?
- Can you harvest a crop with your hands cuffed?
- What are the most important opposition research opportunities for Democrats?
- How do you begin a new generation of Democratic leaders with the under-40 voters?
- What technological advantages are Democrats better capable of exploiting?
- When are Democrats likely to achieve political recovery in North Carolina?
Today I am beginning the 10-part series with Rule #1: If you want to lead a purple, business-friendly state, you have to recruit a purple, business-friendly slate.
Business didn’t leave the Democrats, the Democrats left Business
If archconservative Republican caucus members in the state legislature continue to pull the GOP to the bright red side of the social and economic political spectrum, they will get Republicans into trouble with urban voters, with women, with young voters, and with the all-important moderate independent voter.
They will also get Republicans into hot water with the state’s globally oriented research park corporate community and many other progressive private sector business leaders around the state.
That’s what happened to Democrats. They were so powerful that they no longer saw the value in maintaining ideologically-balanced state Senate and House caucuses. Business-friendly caucuses.
Democrats forgot the 100-year-old public/private partnership between education oriented business leaders and business oriented education leaders that set the state apart from the rest of the Old South; that created the best state in America to do business long before Republicans gained the upper hand.
A new breed of Democrats emerged who no longer found value in their relationship with business leaders. That is, other than their role as fundraisers. Great governors like Jim Hunt, who personally sold the CEO community on education reforms for three decades, were followed by weak governors like Beverly Perdue who had to be sued so that the constitutionally authorized Superintendent of Pubic Instruction could run the public school system. Governor Mike Easley, Perdue’s predecessor, neglected the long-respected Governor’s Business Committee on Education. He disdained meeting with CEOs.
While Democrats were electing governors who alienated the state’s CEO community with either their indifference or their incompetence, Democratic leaders in the state Senate and House were equally indifferent to maintaining balanced, business oriented caucuses.
The 2011 business ratings of North Carolina Senators and House members conducted by the business-sponsored North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation showed:
- Only 2 of 19 Senate Democrats had business ratings above 70% (highest business category)
- Only 6 of 52 House Democrats had business ratings above 70%
When it was time to elect caucus leaders, which ideological group do you think prevailed? Now you know why business and agricultural interests lost confidence in Senate and House Democrats.
Abandon the middle at your own peril
Democrats not only abandoned the state’s business and agricultural leaders, they abandoned the majority of voters clustered near the middle of the ideological spectrum. Democrats created a political vacuum that Republicans were more than happy to fill.
That’s what Republicans risk doing today: abandoning the middle. Creating a political vacuum that offers Democrats renewed hope for political recovery.
In order to ready themselves for the opportunity for political recovery, Democrats must do two things.
First, they have to get over their loss of power. Get over the anger and the denial and the blame game.
Two Democrats come to mind who set the example for how to lose: former “Speaker for Life” Liston Ramsey and former governor Jim Hunt.
Liston Ramsey, a Madison County Democrat who served 19 consecutive terms in the North Carolina House of Representatives, was elected speaker in 1981. He became the first legislator in North Carolina history to hold the speaker’s office for four terms. He was frequently referred to as “Speaker for Life.”
On the opening day of the 1989 session of the General Assembly, a political coup organized in secret by a small group of disgruntled Democrats along with House Republicans led to Ramsey’s defeat.
Liston Ramsey accepted his new role as merely another House member and served with distinction and integrity for another 10 years. He never once played the blame game or showed any anger or exhibited any form of sour grapes. He simply went back to work.
Governor Jim Hunt did the same thing in 1985 after losing the epic battle with Jesse Helms to serve in the U.S. Senate. I asked one of Governor Hunt’s closest friends how long it took Hunt to recover from that devastating defeat. “It took him six to nine months to come to terms personally with the loss,” his friend told me, “but then he went right back to work, beginning with the creation of the Emmerging Issues Forum in 1985.”
Since that time, Hunt has achieved an extraordinary and unprecedented list of accomplishments … serving two more terms as governor, helping grow NC State University into a flagship university, with national and international standing equal to UNC – Chapel Hill. Anyone who doubts that claim has yet to see the Centennial Campus … or visit the Hunt Library.
That’s the way to lose. Go back to work. It’s not about you, it’s about what you believe.
The second thing Democrats must do in order to be prepared for the opportunity to recover their political standing in state government is to rebuild their relationship with the state’s business community.
You accomplish that by recruiting Democrats from the world of business to serve at all levels of government. You build a farm team of new business Democrats from the ground up. Every leadership position. City, county and state. You seek the advice of business people in all that you do.
Demographic trends driven by population growth argue that Democrats have a bright future in North Carolina, and sooner than later if Republicans distance themselves too far to the ideological right on social and economic policy. But Democrats must be ready for the next opportunity to lead.
If you want to lead a purple, business-friendly state, you have to recruit a purple, business friendly slate.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Click here for the Premium Annual Subscription at the reduced rate of $199, or, mail your check for $199 to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622
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This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are: Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors Rule #3: Keep your
[More…]
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism
- Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule”
Today I am adding Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology. North Carolina is tied politically and will be tied for the foreseeable future.
April 24, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 9 8:13 pm
Charlotte, one of the nation’s fastest growing cities of 298 square miles, now has more people than the State of Alaska, which has 586,412 square miles. Alaska has a population of about 730,000 people. Charlotte has a population of 750,000. There are more people in the Charlotte Metropolitan Area than in the states of Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota and Alaska combined.
The Triangle is also one of the country’s fastest growing metropolitan areas. As to political muscle, Raleigh’s Wake County and Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County cast a combined total of 934,265 votes in the 2012 General Election, the same total as the least populated 61 of North Carolina’s 100 counties.
I say all of this to amplify the most startling fact from the 2012 elections: only about half of the state’s voters are native North Carolinians. According to the March 2013 North Carolina Data-Net, “… barely half of the state’s voters were native North Carolinians. Forty-nine percent [49%] were born elsewhere.”
Why should the growth of new urban voters matter to Republicans? Because the study shows that those who moved to North Carolina in the last 5-to-10 years voted for Obama by 62% over Romney’s 38%.
In just 20 years, our voter rolls have grown from 3.4 million to 6.4 million. That growth rate is projected to continue for decades, steadily shrinking the percentage of native North Carolina voters.
As to the impact of our growth on partisan politics, the Republican share is also steadily shrinking.
In 2006, North Carolina registered Republicans numbered 35% of the 5.5 million voters. By 2010, the Republican share of all registered voters was down to 32% of 6.2 million voters. Today, April 24, 2013, North Carolina Republicans number only 30.8% of 6,624,136 voters.
While the combined total of voters in Wake and Mecklenburg counties have grown by 140% since 1993, Democrats have dropped from 53% of the total to 43%, while Republicans have dropped from 36% to only 28%. Unaffiliated voters have grown from 11% to 29% of the Wake/Mecklenburg total.
Republicans have all of the political power in the state and that means a competitive advantage. However, power has a way of distorting perceptions of reality. Numbers are a reality check.
The reality is that North Carolina is virtually tied politically; a swing state with a level battlefield that favors neither party. Most of the projected growth is in urban counties where the GOP is losing ground.
Don’t bring TV ads to a turnout fight
You’ve heard the old caution, “Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight.” In today’s world of breaking ties in political races, that adage could be written, “Don’t bring TV ads to a turnout fight.”
The 2012 presidential race was tied the entire year. An astounding 97% of likely voters knew whether they were going to vote for or against President Obama the entire fall.
There were very few persuadable voters. You were either going to vote for Obama or not. Period.
Real Clear Politics has compiled a list of 202 national polls conducted from January through November last year that pinned voters down on their voting intentions.
- Not 1 of 35 national polls conducted from Oct 1 to Nov 6, 2012 showed Obama above 50%
- Obama’s average support was 48.8% out of 202 polls; Romney’s average support was 48.1%
- 48.8% plus 48.1% equals 96.9%, leaving only 3.1% of all likely voters undecided
In mid-2011, the Obama camp saw that the race was tied, and that the trend line was flat and likely to hold both candidates just below the winning 50% mark all the way to the finish line. They surmised that a tied race could best be won by getting more of their voters to vote by investing $100 million in data mining and turnout technology.
The brightest Republican consultants surmised that they could break the tie by spending hundreds of millions of TV ad dollars persuading voters that Obama was awful. What they overlooked was the fact that there were very few persuadable voters, and the fact that the Romney vote was unenthusiastic and needed extra prodding to get them to the polls. Romney needed a competitive turnout operation.
Obama’s Strategic Advantage over Romney and GOP Superstars
After reading numerous accounts of how Obama’s Chicago team built a turnout advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstars like Karl Rove, it is clear that it was the investment in technology and an analytics team that broke the tie and won the race.
Read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, invested $100 million in technology and analytics software. He hired a team of techies five times the size of the 2008 operations group, the group that shattered all voter registration and turnout records.
These data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.” The Obama megafile allowed the campaign:
- To predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- To rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- To predict the types of people who would more likely give money online or by mail
- To predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- To raise a record $1 billion war chest
- To register 3 million new voters and turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
Another Time magazine story, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters, revealed how the Obama campaign used technology to overcome the challenge of turning out young voters who did not have a land-line phone.
- 85% of Obama’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone number were found via a Facebook Friends app
- 1 million Obama backers used the app on Facebook, permitting the Chicago HQ analytics geeks to look at their Facebook Friends
- 600,000 Obama supporters used the Facebook app to persuade 5 million of their Facebook Friends to register, contribute and/or vote
- Obama team registered 1.8 million new voters door-to-door; 1.1 million online
Chicago-based data analytics geeks gave President Barack Obama his margin of victory by identifying a powerful new means of “door-to-door contact” by friends: Facebook Friends apps on smartphones and tablets. Friends were contacting friends using texting and social media; the new knock at the door.
North Carolina’s dramatic growth from 3.4 million voters to 6.4 million voters in 20 years has yielded the startling fact that only about half of the state’s voters are natives. That same growth has created a partisan political tie.
Merely making voter registration and turnout a priority is no longer enough. It must be the priority.
Rule #9: If it’s tied, it’s Turnout. If it’s Turnout, it’s Technology. North Carolina is tied politically and will be tied for the foreseeable future.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report! John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
“It turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
NY Times, 3/26/2013, regarding Pres. Obama’s new Organizing for Action “Social Welfare” organization
March 27, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 8 11:13 pm
It’s time we put principle aside and do what’s right!
On June 19, 2008, Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama created a firestorm among liberal campaign finance reformers by breaking his pledge to limit his campaign spending to public funds. Obama chose to put the practical value of a campaign spending advantage over personal principle. He knew that in order to win, he had to Obey the Golden Rule of Politics: Those with the most gold rule.
Obama’s decision to put principal aside freed him to raise an unlimited amount of money. Republican nominee John McCain opted to shackle himself to public financing. When the final campaign spending totals were tallied, the FEC reported that Obama had raised $745 million to McCain’s $368 million.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans.
David Plouffe, campaign manager for President Obama’s 2008 victory, in writing about the decision to opt out of public financing in his book The Audacity to Win, said, “Sacrificing this added cash would mean we either had to pare our list of target battlegrounds or run less rigorous campaigns in each.”
One of those target battlegrounds was North Carolina. If Obama had put principle over money and opted out of public financing in 2008, he would not have carried North Carolina and Beverly Purdue would not have been governor.
North Carolina was Obama’s closest win (14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast). Perdue’s win was the closest governors race in the U.S., despite her 2-to-1 spending advantage over McCrory ($14.9 million to his $6.7 million) and despite a historic Democratic turnout thanks to Obama’s state organization.
“Staying in the federal system would seriously impede our ability to mount that kind of campaign that left no stone unturned,” wrote Plouffe, “I thought if we opted out of the system, we would also enjoy a significant financial advantage over McCain.” He was right.
In 2008, the Obama campaign raised $782 million (McCain $368 million), employed 6,000 staffers who managed 13 million volunteers. In September alone, Obama raised $100 million online. “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,” said Plouffe.
When it comes to principle versus money in politics, ignore the protests of the press and the outrage of the campaign finance reformers; put principle aside and do what’s right: raise money.
This report is the continuation of a series highlighting key rules for How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like their predecessors the Democrats). The rules highlighted thus far are:
- Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
- Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors
- Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer
- Rule #4: Caring must be at the core of conservatism
- Rule #5: Lose the courts, lose the war
- Rule #6: Men do not equal a majority
- Rule #7: Welcome young voters with “Come as you are” Open Conservatism.
Today, I am adding Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics –“Those with the most gold rule.”
NC Republicans are only half-way to financial dominance; President Obama points the way to the other half
Thanks to excellent research and analysis of 2012 campaign finances by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, we can now say for certain that North Carolina Republicans have learned well from Democrats and are following their precedent in valuing political financial dominance.
- Republican Senate candidates raised about $11.3 million to only $3.7 million for Democratic Senate candidates, a 3-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 33 to 17 Senate majority.
- Republican House candidates raised $12.9 million to $5.3 million for the Democrats, a 2-to-1 GOP advantage in 2012 that led to a 77 to 43 House majority.
- Republican Gov. Pat McCrory raised $11.2 million to $4.3 million for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton, a 2012 advantage that led to a 55% to 43% victory.
Granted, reports like these make it clear that North Carolina Republicans are well on their way to establishing political financial dominance. However, they are only halfway there. The other half of political financial dominance is the establishment of 501 (c) (4) “social welfare” nonprofit groups that may raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to advance their legislative agenda.
Once again, Republicans have an excellent model thanks to President Obama.
Obama’s campaign organization, Organizing for America, has morphed into a new advocacy machine called Organizing for Action. OFA is run by former campaign operatives, like Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, and pledges to “support the legislative agenda we voted on, train the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders, and organize around local issues in our communities.”
Sound like something of political value to North Carolina Republicans? Keeping your political organization fine-tuned as an IRS approved “social welfare” organization? Training the next generation of grassroots organizers and leaders? Unlimited shadow funding?
Raise $2 million and you can be on Obama’s board
On Tuesday, March 26, 2013, The New York Times carried a story about Organizing for Action stating, “In addition to the previously reported “board of trustees” whose members are expected to raise at least $500,000, it turns out there is an even higher tier of donors who are granted entree to the board of directors if they raise $1 million for two consecutive years, according to a memo that describes the organization’s “finance leadership levels.”
What are they going to do with all of that money?
According to Organizing for Action’s statement of purpose, they are established to:
- “Support President Obama in achieving enactment of his national agenda.”
- Form grassroots level chapters that will also work for “progressive change on a range of issues at the state and local level.”
- All while operating as a “social welfare” organization” under IRS Code 501(c)(4).
Fred Wertheimer, head of Democracy 21 and a leading national voice for campaign finance reform, described the OFA as “an unprecedented entity that allows individual donors and bundlers to provide unlimited amounts of money to an organization functioning as an arm of the Obama presidency.”
If President Obama can legally raise “unlimited amounts of money” for an organization that is a functioning arm of his presidency, North Carolina Republican leaders can do the same. And should.
Remember, it’s a means of keeping your political organization fine-tuned while operating as an IRS approved “social welfare” (wink, wink) organization.
There is a lesson here for North Carolina Republicans; a lesson taught well over the years by Democrats. That lesson is Rule #8: Obey the Golden Rule of Politics – Those with the most gold rule.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe JND
P.S.: Need a speaker? Inquire about availability here JND
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities. No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years. Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable
“Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.” John Davis Political Report, 1/11/2013
Friday, January 11, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 2 2:13 pm
The 114-year political winning streak for North Carolina Democrats ended Wednesday, January 9, 2013, with the swearing in of our state’s 170 state legislators. On that day, the political power of North Carolina Republicans over state government became absolute. Republican Governor, Speaker of the House and President Pro Tem of the Senate. Super majorities in both chambers.
Democrats had absolute power over North Carolina state government for all but four years since 1898. That was 1995 to 1999, when Republicans had a majority in the North Carolina House. A prized seat at the three-cornered table where all of the state budgeting decisions are made.
Granted, there were two Republican governors during the 20th Century. But they had no veto power. A Republican governor without veto power in the 20th Century had no power.
So, how long will the North Carolina Republican Party keep their absolute power? Can they match the Democrats’ winning streak of 114 Years? What are the rules for political longevity?
Rule #1: Always, always remember that you are vulnerable
In The Art of War, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu teaches the importance of defending your position on the battlefield until it is safe to change to a more advantageous position. Don’t create opportunities for the enemy by making yourself vulnerable.
North Carolina Democrats never seemed to realize that they were creating opportunities for Republicans by making themselves vulnerable.
There were plenty of warning signs. Democrats should have known:
- A 10-year rash of embarrassing criminal indictments would scare off even the most loyal contributors;
- Allowing their legislative caucuses to become ideologically warped to the far left of center would scare off business leaders;
- If your leaders hog the glory and don’t build a deep bench of farm-team candidates you will wind up without a new generation when needed;
- If you stand with the U.S. President and his personal agenda (healthcare) and against the voters and their agenda (jobs and the economy), you are going get into a world of hurt. You may even lose the opportunity to remap political districts.
- Buying elections with obligatory loyalty from resentful contributors won’t stand the test of a strong challenge if you are vulnerable.
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It makes you think you are not vulnerable.
The arrogance of Democratic invulnerability in North Carolina has led to scandal after scandal, indictment after indictment, embarrassment after embarrassment, the loss of legislative power and political dominance, even scandal and academic fraud at our most revered universities.
No leader is more vulnerable than those who think they are not vulnerable.
Rule #2: Criminal indictments will scare off contributors
Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding. That’s what happened to Democrats during the last ten years.
- Federal prosecutor George Holding’s investigations into the campaign finance violations dried up many sources of Democratic contributions, especially in Eastern North Carolina.
- Prominent Eastern North Carolina Democratic fundraisers like Lanny Wilson, who resigned from the North Carolina Board of Transportation after being caught up in the investigation into former Gov. Mike Easley’s campaign contributions, is a case in point.
- Investigations into campaign finance violations by Gov. Mike Easley were so pervasive over such a long period of time, leading to indictments, convictions and many embarrassing revelations involving everyone from Easley and his wife to prominent supporters, that major Democratic donors put their checkbooks back in their pockets.
- Gov. Beverly Perdue and her campaign staff, who also benefited from the fundraising muscle of Eastern North Carolina Democratic bag men, came under criminal investigation by federal and state prosecutors, leading to additional scrutiny of prominent Democratic fundraisers and ultimately more indictments and convictions.
Everyone was subpoenaed.
Here’s the problem: Everyone was subpoenaed. Nothing will dry up a well of campaign contributions faster than the fear of being subpoenaed in a criminal proceeding.
In addition to the national scandal involving North Carolina’s own U.S. Senator John Edwards, arguably the most despised Democratic leader in America in the last decade, our state has been embarrassed time and again by the indictments and convictions of Democrats like former state Sen. and U.S. Cong. Frank Ballance, former House Speaker Jim Black, former Commissioner of Agriculture Meg Scott Phipps, former state Rep. Thomas Wright, former Governor Mike Easley and his administration’s lawyer Ruffin Poole.
Last year, two former members of Governor Perdue’s campaign staff, her 2008 campaign finance director and her Western North Carolina office director, plead guilty to campaign finance violations.
Every Democrat on the list above violated Rule #1. They didn’t think they were vulnerable. As a result, they suffered the consequences of Rule #2: Indictments scare off contributors.
Republicans who think they can manage their newfound absolute power better than the Democrats should remember that just last July, one of their own, former GOP Rep. Steven LaRoque from Kinston, resigned from the House in light of federal criminal indictments.
Who will be next? The one that thinks he is not vulnerable.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants.
They Beat Them at the Door; the New Door. How geeks became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
“They lived in the cellular shadows, effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.” Time magazine’s Michael Sherer, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters
Friday, January 4, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 1 3:13 pm
Living in Cellular Shadows; Immune to Get-Out-The-Vote Efforts
My wife and I have eight adult children, which includes three spouses, ages 24 to 32. They are among the best informed voters in America; university degrees, world travelers, tech savvy. Yet not one of the eight has cable TV, a home phone, a home radio or subscribes to a newspaper.
All of our children voted last fall, yet they did not receive a single Get-Out-The-Vote call from any campaign, national or state. They were among those who, “lived in the cellular shadows,” wrote Time magazine’s Michael Sherer in his story, Friended: How the Obama Campaign Connected With Young Voters, “effectively immune to traditional get-out-the-vote efforts.”
Sherer’s story disclosed for the first time a near disaster for the Obama reelection campaign in the fall of 2012. “Half the campaign’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 had no listed phone number.” How are you going to turn out one of your most loyal constituencies if you can’t find their phone numbers? The answer? Facebook apps.
- 85% of Obama’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone number were found via a Facebook Friends app
- 1 million Obama backers used the app on Facebook, permitting the Chicago HQ analytics geeks to look at their Facebook Friends
- 600,000 Obama supporters used the Facebook app to persuade 5 million of their Facebook Friends to register, contribute and/or vote
- Obama team registered 1.8 million new voters door-to-door; 1.1 million online
Chicago-based data analytics geeks gave President Barack Obama his margin of victory by identifying a powerful new means of “door-to-door contact” by friends: Facebook Friends apps on smartphones and tablets. Friends contacting friends. The new door.
Obama’s Institutional Advantage Over Romney and His Super PACs
Read Time’s story, Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win, and you will discover that Jim Messina, Obama’s Campaign Manager, hired an analytics team five times the size of the 2008 operations team.
The team of dozens of data-mining geeks worked in secret in a remote corner of the HQ in Chicago for 18 months, “creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.”
The Obama megafile allowed the campaign:
- To predict the types of people who would be persuaded by specific messages
- To rank their target lists for unique actions in order of persuadability (register; donate)
- To predict the types of people who would more likely give money online or by mail
- To predict the types of people who would volunteer, and for what type of work
- To operate and invest with maximum efficiency
- To raise a record $1 billion war chest
- To turn out voters in swing states in record numbers
From the Time story: “We ran the election 66,000 times every night,” said a senior official, describing the computer simulations the campaign ran to figure out Obama’s odds of winning each swing state. “And every morning we got the spit-out — here are your chances of winning these states. And that is how we allocated resources.”
“I want to say one word to you. Just one word.”
In the 1967 Academy Award winning movie The Graduate, starring Dustin Hoffman, one of the top 100 most memorable movie one-liners was produced. It was, “Plastics.”
The film was a coming-of-age story about a recent college graduate who was struggling with the pressures of an older, corrupting generation. “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, to Benjamin, the new graduate, “Are you listening? Plastics,” he said, “There is a great future in plastics.”
If I could write the screenplay for a modern-day remake of The Graduate based on the 2012 elections, the dialogue would be: “I want to say one word to you. Just one word,” said Mr. McGuire, “Are you listening? Geeks,” he said, “There is a great future in geeks.”
After reading numerous accounts of how Obama’s Chicago team built an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstars, I am persuaded that it was the geeks, the data-mining, analytical, app creating geeks, who became the secret weapon in Obama’s second win.
It wasn’t the data; it was the geeks who knew how to manage the data that gave Obama an institutional advantage over the Romney team and their $100 million Super PACs led by GOP superstar consultants. It wasn’t the mobile devices like smartphones and tablets; it was the geeks who discovered how apps can allow friends to knock on “new doors” of friends. Digital doors.
Pew Research Center reports in The Demographics of Mobile News, that young people have “largely abandoned the print news product,” preferring instead to get their news on smartphones and tablets. Another Pew study, In Changing News Landscape, Even Television is Vulnerable, concluded that, “Among the youngest Americans – those younger than 25 – substantially more get news digitally than from traditional news sources (60% vs. 43%).
If you want to contact them, to persuade them, to get them to volunteer or contribute to your campaign, to get them to go out and vote, you are going to have to geek up.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Subscribe for 2013! If you are not a subscriber, please consider subscribing. The Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622, or subscribe online here using your credit card or debit card.
Need a speaker? Inquire about availability
The John Davis Political Report was named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
John Davis Political Report Awarded “Top 10 Political Influencers” by Campaigns & Elections; Biggest Winners and Losers in 2012; Happy New Year! “Davis is actually unaffiliated.” News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME, 12/21/2012 Friday, December 28, 2012 Vol. V, No. 43 7:13 am Top 10 North Carolina “Political Influencers Award” The John Davis Political Report
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John Davis Political Report Awarded “Top 10 Political Influencers” by Campaigns & Elections; Biggest Winners and Losers in 2012; Happy New Year!
“Davis is actually unaffiliated.” News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME, 12/21/2012
Friday, December 28, 2012 Vol. V, No. 43 7:13 am
Top 10 North Carolina “Political Influencers Award”
The John Davis Political Report has been named as one of the “Top 10 North Carolina Political Influencers Award” recipients for 2012 by Campaigns and Elections, a national political journal founded in 1980. Ten recipients of the “Political Influencers Award” are named for each state.
A special thanks to the News & Observer’s UNDER THE DOME editors for clarifying that I am not affiliated with a political party. “Davis is actually unaffiliated,” they noted in the news story.
The other nine recipients of the North Carolina “Political Influencers Award” are: Republicans Tom Fetzer, lobbyist and former Raleigh mayor and state GOP chairman; lobbyist Dana Simpson; and consultants Carter Wrenn and Chris Sinclair. Democrats include political consultants Brad Crone and Mike Davis; strategist Scott Falmlen, former state Democratic Party executive director; lobbyist Bruce Thompson, and Andrew Whalen, consultant for the Blue Dog Coalition and a former state Democratic Party executive director.
North Carolina Republican Party Biggest Winner in 2012
In 2012, the North Carolina Republican Party neutralized Obama’s historic 2008 turnout advantage, thereby making this state the only swing state that Obama lost. The state GOP invested early in a major commitment to personal voter contact, increasing the number of regional headquarters from 12 in 2010 to 24 in 2012; from 8 paid Get-Out-The-Vote staff in 2010 to 67 paid staffers in 2012.
Here is the short list of accomplishments in 2012 by the North Carolina GOP:
- Historic dominance of all three branches of state government
- Landslide Republican gubernatorial win: McCrory 55%; Dalton 43%; Howe 2%
- Super majorities in NC Senate (33/17) and NC House (77/43)
- Republican Lt. Governor to preside over GOP Senate
- Republican majority congressional delegation (9/4)
- Landslide passage of Marriage Amendment in May
- Non-partisan Republican majority on NC Supreme Court
- County Commissioners: 54 GOP County Boards; 44 Democratic; 2 Non-Partisan
- Only “Swing” state not carried by President Obama in 2012 Presidential race
Business & Conservative Super PACs Biggest Losers in 2012 US Elections
Conservative Super PACs turned out to be the biggest losers of the 2012 election year. The biggest of the biggest losers? National Rifle Association. According to an analysis by the Sunlight Foundation of the $1.3 billion spent independently in 2012, the NRA had a 0.81% return on an investment of $12 million. Here are a few of the biggest losers:
- Nat’l Rifle Assn: 0.83% return on $11 million
- American Crossroads (Karl Rove) 1.29% return on $105 million spent on campaigns
- US Chamber: 6.9% return on $33 million
- Crossroads GPS: 14.3% return on $71 million
- National Republican Congressional Committee: 31.88% return on $65 million
- FreedomWorks (Tea Party): 24.5% return on investment of $20 million
- Club for Growth: 41.8% return on $17 million
John Davis Political Report Vol. VI Begins Thursday, January 3
The John Davis Political Report will begin its sixth calendar-year volume of reports on Thursday, January 3, 2013. The first report is a thorough examination of the tactical advantage achieved by those who invested early and well in a voter registration and turnout operation, like President Obama and the North Carolina Republican Party.
From the inaugural address by Governor-Elect Pat McCrory to every action taken during the upcoming session of the General Assembly, political consequences will be foremost on the minds of those who wish to continue to serve after the next elections.
It’s the American way. After all, you can’t lead if you can’t get elected.
– END of VOL. V, 2012 –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!
Happy New Year!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep “What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?” Jesus,
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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report; Lessons Learned in 2012: The Parable of the Lost Sheep
“What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”
Jesus, New Testament, Luke 15:4-7
Friday, November 9, 2012 Vol. V, No. 42 12:13 pm
Parable of the Lost Sheep
I can’t tell you how much I appreciate you for reading my reports during this election cycle.
Politics is my life’s passion. Analysis. Writing. Speaking. To have people that I respect greatly read my reports is the highest form of professional fulfillment. Thank you.
Since Tuesday night, I have been stewing over my “lost sheep,” the one race that I got wrong at the end: the U.S. Presidential race. The lost sheep analogy is from the New Testament book of Luke, where Jesus tells the following parable: “What man of you, having an hundred sheep, if he lose one of them, doth not leave the ninety and nine in the wilderness, and go after that which is lost, until he find it?”
Although my North Carolina forecasts were dead on, including my forecast since Labor Day 2011 that Obama would not carry the state again, I changed my forecast that Obama would win the U.S. Presidential race in early October. Mistake. My lost sheep.
I got all 13 congressional races right; 47 of 49 state Senate races right, 114 of 120 state House races right. I got the Governor and Council of State right; and Supreme Court Justice Newby.
But, the lost sheep.
We Knew the Tie Would be Broken by Turnout
I had the U.S. Presidential race right from Labor Day 2011 until October 4, 2012. That’s the day after the first debate when I saw, for the first time, Republicans united and excited about their nominee Mitt Romney.
In my mind, excitement and unity meant momentum and volunteers and turnout.
The race had been tied since the national conventions in Tampa and Charlotte. The tie would be broken by turnout. Turnout was driven by unity and enthusiastic volunteers.
Wrong.
Granted, polling confirmed that Romney voters were twice as excited as McCain voters were in 2008. But in 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.
Polls also showed that young voters, women, Latino’s and even African Americans were less excited about Barack Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008.
In 2012, it was not excitement that made the difference.
Turnout in 2012 was driven by a strategic and tactical advantage; an early investment by the Obama campaign in the most sophisticated targeting analytical software in political history. An investment in building the most complete and accurate list of supporters ever. An investment in strategically placed headquarters from which to manage the turnout operation. An investment in a field staff to coordinate volunteers as they went about the daily grind of voter turnout.
Conventional wisdom said that there was no way President Obama could get a higher number of African American voters in 2012 than his record-breaking 2008 turnout. Yet in critical states like Ohio, African American turnout increased from 11% of all voters in 2008 to 15% Tuesday.
If African American turnout in Ohio was the same as 2008, Romney would have won the state. What principle did the Obama campaign apply? The lost sheep. Every Obama vote was found.
North Carolina Republicans Neutralized Obama’s 2008 Turnout Advantage
The Republican National Committee made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.
Big mistake.
The Republican independent expenditure leaders like Karl Rove made the strategic and tactical mistake of emphasizing advertising over a technologically advanced turnout organization.
A $400 million mistake.
Fortunately for North Carolina Republicans, the leadership of the state party, led by former Congressman Robin Hayes and Executive Director Scott Laster, recognized the strategic and tactical importance of neutralizing the Democrats’ 2008 turnout advantage with a well-organized and well-funded turnout operation in 2012. Turnout.
They started early. They doubled the regional headquarters. They tripled the paid staff. They had ten times the number of volunteers doing the hard work of turning out voters. They worked together. They worked tirelessly.
The Romney campaign. The Pat McCrory gubernatorial campaign. The state Senate and House legislative caucus campaigns. The Congressional campaigns. The Council of State and Judicial campaigns. All united by the state Republican Party into a turnout organization that neutralized the Obama 2008 turnout advantage in North Carolina.
The proof was in the 2012 registration and early voting turnout. Example: Romney got 95,000 more early votes in North Carolina than McCain in 2008. Obama only won by 14,117 votes in 2008 out of 4.3 million. Turnout advantage neutralized. Swing state lost.
Thanks to solid candidates, smart political war generals, savvy and committed staff, a great team of fundraisers, fair and legal legislative and congressional maps, and a well-coordinated turnout organization with thousands of volunteers doing the hard work of winning campaigns, North Carolina Republicans will dominate all three branches of state government, executive, legislative and judicial, for the first time since 1898.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND