LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012 Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3 NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3
NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. Today is Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, including U.S. President, Congress, NC Governor and Legislature.
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
FORECAST – AGAINST THE CURRENT GOP FIELD, OBAMA WILL WIN A SECOND TERM – WITHOUT THE HELP OF NORTH CAROLINA:
If you go to the Real Clear Politics website, you can see a list of all polls conducted during the month of August. There were 20 polls that pitted Obama against either a generic GOP contender or one of the announced candidates for the Republican nomination.
Obama’s average in the 20 match-ups was 44.8% to 42.6% for the Republican. If he is holding his own despite his lousy job approval numbers and the continued dire economic circumstances facing the nation, then he is well on his way for reelection. (By the way, I did not include the 3 match-ups between Obama and Palin; he trounced her by 20+ points.)
Today, Labor Day, Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
It’s Jobs, Spending, Global Economic Correction … and a Leadership Crisis
Americans want so desperately to see encouraging signs of economic recovery that any positive news sustained over several months will have an exponentially positive impact on President Obama’s reelection potential.
The potential for sustained economic improvement grows daily as all political leaders realize that their days are numbered because voters are in a foul mood and want results now.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the jobs crisis.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the economic crisis caused by unsustainable federal budgeting.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the crisis caused by the global economic correction.
Voters have determined that America has a political leadership crisis equal in magnitude as the country’s economic crisis. All incumbents are vulnerable, especially members of Congress.
Remember, today’s Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
Voters are much more likely to vent their frustration at Congress than the President.
FORECAST – MITT ROMNEY WILL BE THE GOP NOMINEE:
After the dust settles at the Republican National Convention in 2012, there is a greater likelihood that Romney will be the nominee, with a Tea Party running mate to galvanize the social and economic right.
Republicans are hierarchical, and Romney has earned the right to assume the mantle.
The current front runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, will self-destruct trying to defend his loose-cannon comments like those in his new book, “Fed Up!” Example: Social Security is a “violent” attack on core American values.
The book is an opposition research professional’s mother lode. “I wouldn’t have written that book if I was going to run for the presidency of the United States,” Perry said in an interview.
Perry, although a former Democrat who served as Al Gore’s state campaign chairman during the 1988 Presidential primaries, is a bona fide fiscal conservative who switched to the GOP in 1989.
However, Perry must overcome these two major obstacles:
- His trigger happy mouth has produced enough attack campaign fodder to fill the Astrodome.
- His Texas swagger and bravado are too reminiscent of George W. Bush, the President who voters blame more for the nation’s economic woes than the current President. There is no way the voters are going to vote for a third term for George W. Bush.
According to a September 1, 2011 Public Policy Polling release, “GOP voters like Perry better than Romney. But independents are a lot more willing to vote for Romney than Perry.”
Ultimately, Perry will scare off Independents.
The only other Republican who could defeat Romney (and Obama for that matter) says he’s not interested: NJ Gov. Chris Christie. Keep an eye on Christie. If he gets in, everything changes.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL OUTRIGHT LOSE/AT LEAST NEARLY LOSE THE US HOUSE:
The US House GOP leaders have wiped out the respect most American votes had for their potential to offer strong, problem-solving leadership. When US House Speaker Boehner caved in to Rep. Eric Cantor, R-VA and the other caucus Tea Partiers over the debt ceiling debate, his stock plummeted … along with the entire caucus.
Uncompromising ideologues in the US House GOP Caucus will continue to divide and conqueror the caucus, giving moderate Democrats (I repeat for emphasis, “moderate Democrats”) an opportunity to win the toss-up races and get within range of a small majority.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN US SENATE MAJORITY:
The US Senate Republicans are likely to win the majority because of the way the deck is stacked in 2012. Of the 33 US Senate races up for grabs, 23 are currently held be Democrats. The Senate is currently a 51/47 Democratic majority, with 2 Independents who regularly caucus with the Democrats. That slim majority is too close to hold while defending 23 seats held by Democrats.
Retiring senators include 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans. If you add the 6 seats open due to retiring Democrats to the 17 additional incumbent Democrats up for reelection, you can see the big problem that Democrats face.
Only 8 Republicans are up for reelection in 2012.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN NC HOUSE & SENATE:
North Carolina House and Senate Republicans are on track for a long period of sustained majority party status.
If the state Senate and House maps pass judicial scrutiny, then in a good Republican year they will win veto-proof super majorities in both chambers. In a bad Republican year they will maintain the majority.
If you add the maps to the money advantage, you can readily see the long-term prospects for GOP majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.
The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation put out an excellent study this week showing that Republican Senators had outraised the Senate Democrats 10-to-1 in the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections. The NC House Republicans have out-raised their loyal opponents by a 3-to-1 margin.
FORECAST – REPUBLICAN PAT McCRORY WILL WIN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE:
Governor Perdue has had a dismal couple of years struggling to establish her effectiveness as the leader of the 10th largest state in America. Judging by her chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … and the five veto overrides … she has yet to convince anyone beyond her base that she deserves a second term.
In 2008, Perdue won the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory only because of the historic voter registration and turnout of Democrats by the Obama 2012 Campaign for President. However, Obama is not likely to invest in a long-shot like North Carolina due to the loss of the surprise advantage (no one took his potential in NC seriously in 2008), and financial restraints.
Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory’s can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
- In an August 17 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 37% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 48% disapproved.
- PPP August 17 poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP August 17 poll: “The Governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats, a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed in July with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reported raising just over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
Even if the economy begins to recover, and Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race.
Well, there you have it. The John Davis Political Report Labor Day Forecasts.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Monthly Subscription $245. Premium Election Cycle Subscription $315 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate for Premium Annual Subscription is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time). Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 2: Question that Reelected Obama Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 2 “I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 2: Question that Reelected Obama
Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 2
“I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal?”
Bret Baier, Fox News Anchor, Moderator, GOP Presidential Debate, Ames, Iowa, Aug. 11, 2011
This is a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that begins today with Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and, later this afternoon, Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. On Monday, look for Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012.
Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama
The John Davis Political Report stated on August 12, 2011, “Obama’s probability of winning a second term remains high thanks to the low level of support among Americans for Congressional Republicans, especially the Tea Party fiscal conservatives.”
A review of two dozen national polls conducted in August 2011 support that point.
The AP-GfK poll conducted August 18-22, 2011, is a goldmine of insight on the eve of the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the election cycle.
As I noted in my report on Tuesday, one of the best facts to use to understand why President Obama is still in the running for a second term is the AP-GfK finding that “More Americans still blame former President George W. Bush rather than Obama for the economic distress. Some 31 percent put the bulk of the blame on Obama, while 51 percent point to his Republican predecessor.”
Here are a few more illustrations of the growing voter dissatisfaction with the Republican leadership:
- Last November 2010, AP-GfK poll asked voters, “Regardless of how you might vote, do you think Pres. Barack Obama deserves to be reelected.” Only 39% said yes; 54% said no. Two weeks ago, August 2011, those numbers have shifted favorably for Obama, with 47% saying he deserves to be reelected and 48% saying he does not (that’s a net negative 15 pts in November 2010 to only a 1 point negative in August 2011).
- Last October 2010, AP-GfK poll asked likely voters, “Who do you trust to do a better job of handling the economy, the Democrats are the Republicans?” Republicans received a plurality of 47%; Democrats were chosen by 44%. In August 2011, those numbers have now shifted, with 45% saying Democrats and 40% saying Republicans.
- How about “Handling Taxes?” In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 41%. August 2011 poll: Democrats 46%; Republicans 40%.
- How about “Creating Jobs?” In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 40%. August 2011 poll: Democrats 44%; Republicans 42%.
The same poll reveals a precipitous decline in support for the Tea Party, which has gone from 36% support among likely voters in October 2010 down to 25% support in August 2011.
Obama Just Won a Second Term
On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising far right fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, moderator of the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases deal.
BRET BAIER: Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?
BAIER: OK. Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands. They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to one deal, they would walk away from.”
When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”
Both parties won because they were the only option on the ballot
I understand how Republican and Tea Party fiscal conservatives can see Democrats as having an addiction to spending much like an alcoholic … out of control; can’t be trusted with one drink. I understand how they conclude that Democrats cannot be trusted with a 10-to-1 deal. But Independent voters can’t understand why GOP leaders balk at a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes.
It all goes back to misperceptions on election-day November 2010. Republicans thought those Independent voters switched from Democrats to Republicans because they wanted leaders who would say no to a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes. Wrong.
When Independent voters turned their backs on Democrats it was because they had lost confidence in the ability of Democrats to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.
Republicans were the only other opinion on the ballot!
Obama and the Democrats got into the same trouble after their victory in 2008 for the same reason … thinking that voters chose them because of the Democratic Party platform. Wrong.
When Independent voters turned their backs on President Bush and the Republicans in 2008, it was because they had lost confidence in the GOP’s ability to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.
Democrats were the only other option on the ballot!
Voters don’t want Democrats or Republicans … they could care less about liberal or conservative ideology … they want jobs, hope for regaining our economic footing here in the United States, and an end to outrageously irresponsible government spending.
As of Labor Day Holiday weekend 2011, uncompromising Republicans are Obama’s best hope for winning a second term.
Remember, on Monday I will send Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, in which I will forecast the next President, US House majority party, US Senate majority party, NC Senate and House majority parties, and the next NC Governor.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Monthly Subscription $245. Premium Election Cycle Subscription $315 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate for Premium Annual Subscription is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time). Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!