North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011 The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election. John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report Friday, October 12, 2012 Vol. V, No. 33 9:13 am Exclusive Scoop in 2011 On Friday morning, July 1, 2011,
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North Carolina Congressional Forecasts; No Change since Exclusive Scoop July 1, 2011
The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.
John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report
Friday, October 12, 2012 Vol. V, No. 33 9:13 am
Exclusive Scoop in 2011
On Friday morning, July 1, 2011, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first to see the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative remappers. The headline read, North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre Fighting Chance.
A historic Republican advantage was in the making. When the final maps were enacted into law on July 28, 2011, only 3 districts of 13 were safe for Democrats. By the time the filing deadline rolled around on February 29, 2012, Congressmen Brad Miller (Wake County) and Heath Shuler (Haywood) conceded to the Republican advantages in their districts and announced that they would not seek reelection.
Two Democratic Congressmen, Mike McIntyre (Robeson) and Larry Kissell (Montgomery), decided to fight against the odds for 
reelection. As last year’s headline read, McIntyre has a fighting chance. Kissell does not.
Congressman McIntyre is a seasoned campaigner who can count his war chest by the millions of dollars; a classic Eastern North Carolina Blue Dog Democrat who has the endorsement of the National Rifle Association and over 50 Southeastern North Carolina mayors. Former state Senator David Rouzer is a newcomer to big league politics, and may be out-muscled despite the favorable leaning of the district.
Larry Kissell’s chances for reelection are slim-to-none. The most loyal Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County were carved out of this one-time Swing district held by Republican Robin Hayes (Cabarrus) for five terms. It is now safe territory for GOP challenger Richard Hudson (Cabarrus).
Bottom line: The GOP will have at least a 9-4 majority following the November 6 General Election.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis The
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Updated
North Carolina’s New Senate Districts – Updated
Phil Berger/Don Vaughan Double-bunked; Pete Brunstetter/Linda Garrou Double-bunked; Total Districts Won by McCain over Obama go from 30 to 34 Under New Maps
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive NC Senate Analysis
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Political Conclusions
Click here to see the New NC Senate Map Proposed by the NC General Assembly
- UPDATE: 14 of North Carolina’s 100 counties have ½ of the state’s 6.1 million voters. Under the new state Senate maps, half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of those 14 counties. The counties are: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Durham, Buncombe, New Hanover, Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Pitt, Catawba and Iredell.
- UPDATE: The other half of the 50-member Senate will represent all or part of 86 counties.
- UPDATE: Mecklenburg County has 10% of the 50 Senate districts; Wake another 10%.
- UPDATE: During the past decade, 87 counties had a combined net population growth of 481,376, about the same as Wake and Mecklenburg combined.
- We are witness to the urbanization of political power in North Carolina.
- Under the new Senate districts, the majority party will likely be Republican for the remainder of the decade as there are 34 districts won by US Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race, 29 districts won by State Sen. Robert Pittenger in his 2008 race for lieutenant governor, and 26 districts won by US Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her last race against U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan in 2008.
- The GOP advantage in the number of Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican and the likely first ever Republican fund-raising advantage argue for a long-term Republican Senate majority in North Carolina.
- In 2008, there were 30 Senate districts that gave McCain a 50% or greater win, with 22 districts giving McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
- Under the new maps, there are 34 Senate districts that would have given McCain a 50%-or-greater win, with 27 that would give McCain a 55%-or-greater win.
Surprises & Interesting Notes
- Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and Senate President Pro Tem, is double-bunked with Sen. Don Vaughan, a Guilford County Democrat. Burger appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (51% to 45% Perdue) and McCain (57% to 43% Obama).
- Sen. Pete Brunstetter, a Forsyth County Republican, is double-bunked with Sen. Linda Garrou, a Forsyth County Democrat. Brunstetter appears to have an advantage as the district would have voted for McCrory (56% to 41% Perdue) and McCain (61% to 39% Obama).
- Sen. Debbie Clary, a Cleveland County Republican, is double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Warren Daniel from Burke County. Clary announced last month her intentions to resign. Her replacement will have to face Sen. Daniel.
- Sen. Jerry Tillman, a Randolph County Republican, has been double-bunked with fellow Republican Sen. Harris Blake from Moore County. Randolph County will have the advantage in the Republican primary.
- CORRECTED: Only two Senate Democrats were double-bunked: Sen. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Sen. Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) reside in the new Senate District 23, including all of Orange and Chatham counties.
Most Vulnerable Incumbents
- The most vulnerable Democrat senators, not counting those who are double bunked with a Republican, are Sen. Doug Berger from Franklin County, Sen. Bill Purcell from Scotland County, and Sen. Stan White from Dare County (Sen. Basnight’s old seat).
- The most vulnerable Republican senator, not counting those who are double bunked, is Sen. Wesley
- Meredith from Cumberland County (Sen. Tony Rand’s old seat).
- There are 9 majority-minority districts where the minority voting age population is 50% or greater. One district, Senate District 13, combines Robeson County and Columbus County to achieve a minority district that includes American Indian, Hispanic and African-Americans.
Legal Limits Established by GOP Stephenson Decision Limit GOP Gerrymandering
Republicans achieved one of the greatest political coups in North Carolina politics in 2003 by successfully litigating the radically gerrymandered maps drawn by the Democratic legislative majority following the 2000 census.
The Stephenson v. Bartlett decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court established new requirements for legislative redistricting in North Carolina that, ironically, now limit the ability of Republicans to do to Democrats what they have done to Republicans for many decades: radical partisan gerrymandering.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were 6 swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and rulings in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case, the courts in 2003 leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and 4 were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
This year, the Stephenson case has forced Republicans to comply with the following:
Voting Rights Act districts must be drawn first to ensure compliance with federal law.
- Population deviations must be within plus-or-minus 5% of the ideal district population.
- Creating districts within counties (urban counties) or by combining whole counties is required until it is no longer possible to create a district without using a part of a county.
- Example: Wake County now has 5 senate districts, 4 within the county and one in combination with all of Franklin County. Mecklenburg County has 5 districts, all within the county lines.
Before the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina looked more like a 1000-piece puzzle. After the Stephenson case, legislative maps in North Carolina look more like a state map of the counties. See the Legislative Guide to Redistricting for all law relating to remapping.
Sophisticated Mapping Technology Allows Long-range Maps
As with the congressional maps released two weeks ago, the changes in the new Senate maps are as politically significant as they are subtle, illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
Adding to the likelihood that Republicans will keep the Senate majority for the remainder of the decade is the fact that today’s remapping technology allows districts to be drawn with population growth projections.
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Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
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“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre
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“Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.” John Davis Political Report
Post July 6, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 14 Revised/Updated
North Carolina’s New Congressional Districts: Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre has Fighting Chance
John Davis Political Report Subscribers First to Receive Comprehensive Analysis
Last Friday, subscribers to the John Davis Political Report were the first in North Carolina to receive a comprehensive analysis of the new congressional districts proposed by the legislative reapportionment committees. Today, I am sending a Revised/Updated edition of that report. Information presented in bold italics has been added. There are new links with each district analysis that provides hundreds of facts about each of the proposed new districts. Check them out!
The July 4th half-price sale on an annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is being extended for the remainder of July! Now only $245 for a Premium Annual Subscription! Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online here!
Key Conclusions:
- Under the new congressional districts, the partisan advantage will shift from 7 Democratic and 6 Republican to 8 Republican and only 3 guaranteed Democratic districts, with 2 that will depend on the strengths of the candidates and the prevailing partisan winds of the given election year.
- President Obama carried 8 NC congressional districts and Sen. McCain 5 in 2008. Under the 13 new districts, Obama would only carry 3 (Butterfield, Price and Watt).
- Only 4 of the current districts gave McCain a 55%-or-greater vote in 2008 (Jones, Foxx, Myrick and McHenry). There are now 10 districts that would have voted for McCain for president at 55% or greater (all but Butterfield, Price and Watt). The same 10 districts would give US Sen. Burr a 60%-or-greater victory.
- Gov. Perdue carried 9 of the 13 congressional districts in 2008, all but one greater than 50%. Under the new districts, Perdue would carry 5 (Butterfield, Jones, Price, McIntyre and Watt).
- GOP gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory only carried 4 congressional districts in 2008 (Foxx, Coble, Myrick and McHenry). If the election were held under the new congressional districts, he would add Elmers, Kissell, Shuler and Miller to his wins.
Key District-by-District Conclusions
- U.S. House District 1, currently held by Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 68% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 2, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Renee Elmers, has become a significantly more Republican-friendly district. This district was held throughout the last decade by Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge. The new district has 39% Democratic registration and 36% Republican registration, a 3% Democratic advantage. However, under the old map, Democrats enjoyed a 23% advantage with 51% registered Democrats to only 28% registered Republicans. Elmers squeaked out a win in Republican friendly 2010. She will still have to work hard to hold this seat, but the new map gives her an advantage at the starting line.
Key County Changes: Harnett County, home to both Elmers and Etheridge, is now split into three congressional districts (Price, Elmers and Coble), with about half remaining in the new congressional district. Elmers now has all of Sampson County and keeps all of Johnston County, both reliably Republican counties. This district no longer has any of the Franklin County and Nash County precincts, making it a stronger Republican opportunity district. New territory includes precincts in Wake, Cumberland and Wayne. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 3, currently held by Republican Congressman Walter Jones, will likely always elect Jones as long as he runs. Jones and his father have held this district for over four decades. However, this district is now a swing district that could be won by a strong conservative Democrat once Jones retires. Remember, there are lots of eastern North Carolina “Reagan Democrats” in this district. Democratic registration increases considerably under the new maps from 41% to 49%; Republicans lose market share from 35% to 30%. McCain would still beat Obama in this district by about 56% to 44%. However, Perdue would defeat McCrory under the new maps by 55% to 44%, whereas she beat McCrory in this congressional district in 2008 by 49% to 48.4%.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County, both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 3 has all of Duplin, Jones, Dare, Beaufort and Craven Counties, and substantial parts of Pitt, Nash and Lenoir. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 4, currently held by Democratic Congressman David Price, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a solid Democratic district where Democrats now have a 35% registration advantage over Republicans (54% Democrats to 19% Republicans, with 27% Unaffiliated).
Key County Changes: Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Orange and northern Durham with a history of voting Republican in federal races have been taken out of Price’s district and moved to Miller’s district. That’s good for Price, a Democrat, and bad for Miller, a Democrat. Precincts in southern Wake County with a history of voting Republican in federal elections have been taken out of Price’s district and put into Republican Renee Elmers’ district, a move that helps both camps. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 5, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, has a bit fewer Republicans and more Democrats but Republicans still outnumber the loyal opposition and will continue find this district a safe harbor for GOP candidates.
Key County Changes: Although Foxx loses Surry and Stokes counties to Miller, she keeps some of the most Republican districts in the state. Wilkes, Yadkin and Davie counties are 3 of the only 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932! GOP precincts in Rockingham and Forsyth counties have been taken out and put into Miller’s district. Not good for Miller. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 6, currently held by Republican Congressman Howard Coble, has fewer Republicans and more Democrats but would still choose McCain over Obama by 55% to 44%, whereas under the old configuration McCain defeated Obama by a much wider margin, 63% to 36% (Statewide: Obama 49.7%; McCain 49.4%).
Key County Changes: Coble looses his share of Davidson and Rowan, keeps all of Moore County and much of what he had in Randolph, Guilford and Alamance Counties. He picks up most of Chatham County, almost all of Lee, and portions of Harnett and Cumberland. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 7, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre, has 9% fewer Democrats but still gives McIntyre a fighting chance. Although McCain defeated Obama here under the old map by 5%, McCain would defeat Obama here under the new maps by 55% to 44%. On the other hand, Perdue would still beat Republican gubernatorial candidate McCrory here by 6 points, but not nearly as bad as the 11 point shellacking she gave him here in 2008. McIntyre maintains a fighting chance.
Key County Changes: Onslow County and almost all of Carteret County (94%), both Republican friendly, have been moved from Jones’ district to McIntyre’s district. Major counties: District 7 has all of Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Onslow and Pender. Democratic-friendly parts of Cumberland, Duplin and Robeson counties have been taken out of this district. McIntyre still has a fighting chance here, but not much more than a fighting chance. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 8, currently held by Democratic Congressman Larry Kissell, has been reconfigured in such a way that Kissell can no longer win. This district was held by GOP Congressman Hayes for most of the decade. It now has more registered Republicans and fewer Democrats and a shifted from a 52% Obama district to a 44% Obama district. Likewise, it has shifted from a 47% McCrory district to a 53% McCrory district. Gov. Perdue carried this district by 51% in one of the best years for voter registration and turnout of Democrats in modern political history. In the absence of the extraordinary advantage that Democrats enjoyed as a result of the historic campaign of President Obama, this now becomes a very difficult district for them to hold.
Key County Changes: Parts of three strong Republican counties, Randolph, Davidson and Rowan, have been added to House District 8, strengthening the prospects of Republicans regaining their seat once held by GOP Congressman Hayes. Several reliably Democratic precincts in Mecklenburg County have been moved into Congressman Mel Watt’s U.S. House District 12, taking “about 37,000 African Americans away from Kissell,” reports the News & Observer/Charlotte Observer. Mecklenburg County had 17% of the district under the old map; only 5.5% under the new map. Cumberland County had 20% of the old district; none of the new district. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 9, currently held by Republican Congresswoman Myrick, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a GOP stronghold where Republican gubernatorial nominee McCrory, former mayor of Charlotte, won the district with 65% of the vote and would win again with 67% of the vote as it is newly configured.
Key County Changes: Myrick lost friendly precincts in Gaston County to Congressman McHenry. However, that loss is offset by a gain of GOP precincts in northern Mecklenburg County (Town of Davidson), southern Iredell County, and new precincts in northeastern Union County . Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 10, currently held by Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry, has about 5% fewer Republicans but continues as a GOP stronghold. President Obama would still lose to McCain here by 57% to 42% and Perdue would still lose to McCrory here by about that same margin.
Key County Changes: McHenry picks up all of Gaston County, his home county and solid Republican territory. He loses GOP strongholds Mitchell, Avery and Caldwell, as well as and Burke County, to Shuler’s district. McHenry picks up all of Polk County and the eastern side of Buncombe County, including Asheville. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 11, currently held by Democratic Congressman Heath Shuler, has now become a safe harbor for Republicans. The anchor for Democrats in this district has always been Buncombe County, particularly Asheville. Not only has half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, been put into Congressman McHenry’s safe Republican district, but several of the most Republican counties in the state have been moved from districts held by Congresswoman Foxx and Congressman McHenry to Heath Shuler’s district. Keep in mind, this district was held by Republican Congressman Charles Taylor for 12 years. It was already a leaning Republican district. Shuler, an exceptionally strong and attractive candidate, has been able to hang onto the seat because he is a great candidate and he votes like a Republican.
Key County Changes: Shular picks up Mitchell, Caldwell, Burke and Avery Counties. All but Burke County are reliably Republican counties. Avery and Mitchell counties are 2 of the 6 counties that voted for Herbert Hoover against Roosevelt in 1932. Now that’s Republican! He loses the eastern half of Buncombe County, including Asheville, and all of Polk County. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 12, currently held by Democratic Congressman Mel Watt, did not undergo any change that will impact the likely outcome of congressional races for the next 10 years. It is still a majority-minority district where Democrats have a 64% registration advantage over the meager 16% Republican registration. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
- U.S. House District 13 is currently held by Democratic Congressman Brad Miller. As expected, North Carolina Congressman Miller has been drawn into a district he cannot win. Turnabout is fair play. When he chaired the NC Senate reapportionment committee 10 years ago, he drew himself a congressional district he could not lose. Now he’s in a district he cannot win. Registered Democrats plummeted from 51% to 41% and Republicans increased their ranks from 26% to 37%. Under the current district, Obama received 59% to only 40% for McCain. Under the new map, McCain would beat Obama by 56% to 44%. Amazing! Perdue’s market share plummets under the new map from 57% to 45% while McCrory’s market share increases from 39% to 52%.
Key County Changes: Stokes and Surry counties, both reliably Republican in national elections, have been added to Miller’s district. Reliably Democratic precincts in Guilford County have been removed. Conservative “Reagan Democrats” precincts in northern Alamance, northern Orange and northern Durham counties have been added. Republican precincts in western Guilford County and eastern Forsyth County stay. Click here for counties in district and county % of district.
Surprises & Interesting Notes:
- All 13 incumbents still reside in their new districts (no double bunking).
- There is no third majority-minority district as many had speculated.
- Despite the Republican-friendly change in the rematch in of the congressional districts, one Democrat, North Carolina Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, would still carry all of them.
- The basis of the new map is the old map. At a glance, they look very similar.
- The changes in the maps are as politically significant as they are subtle; illustrating the extraordinary sophistication of today’s remapping technology.
- Republicans drew the districts with growth projections in mind to ensure that they will be safe all the way to the end of the decade.
Knowing early how campaigns are likely to end takes the uncertainty out of politics, thereby saving you a lot of your time and your money. That’s what the John Davis Political Report is all about.
– END –
The ½ price July 4th sale will continue throughout the month. If you are not a subscriber, Click HERE to Print Subscription Reply Form, or subscribe online to the John Davis Political Report at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe.
Need a speaker on redistricting? Contact me at www.johndavisconsulting.com/speaker-info
Please consider making a donation to help defray costs of research here. Look for the “Donate” button at www.johndavisconsulting.com.
[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/JDPR-5-26-11-Legal-Mischief1.mp3|titles=JDPR 5 26 11 Legal Mischief] Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in
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Note: This report is based on research done in preparation for presentations last week to the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Dept. at the Norman A. Wiggins School of Law, Campbell University, Raleigh, and a presentation to the NC Dental Society’s Political Action Committee at their Annual Meeting in Myrtle Beach. If you are interested in a presentation on the political implications of redistricting for 2012 politics, click here.
Most Fun You Can Legally Have
Mercedes Benz has an ad on TV claiming that driving one of their “C Class” cars is the most fun you can legally have. Wrong. Drawing your political party an advantage over a $20 billion budget for the next 10 years while disrupting the opposition without getting indicted … now that’s the most fun you can legally have.
You can’t govern if you don’t win a majority of the legislative seats. One of the best ways to stack the deck in your favor is to draw a majority of seats predisposed to choosing your candidates. But only the party in the majority after each census can claim the drawing tools. In 2011, it’s the Republicans.
Miller’s Millstone: Rucho’s Right of Retributive Justice
US Congressman Brad Miller, D-Wake, is serving his last term whether he has accepted his fate or not. Why? He “double-bunked” the Chairman of the NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago.
No one understands the devastating political consequences of redistricting better than someone who got “double-bunked” by the majority party mapmakers. Double-bunking occurs when two incumbents from the same party are drawn into the same district. If you are double-bunked you have two choices: run against each other in a brutal and expensive primary, or someone has to agree to go home.
That’s what happened 10 years ago … to none other than Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, the current Chairman of the Senate Redistricting Committee. Who served as Chairman of NC Senate Redistricting Committee 10 years ago? None other than US Congressman Brad Miller.
Then-state Senator Brad Miller put GOP Senators Robert Pittenger and Bob Rucho, both from Mecklenburg County, in the same district. Rucho decided to bow out rather than risk a fortune trying to beat one of the wealthiest members of the state Senate in a primary race in an expensive media market.
Sen. Rucho went home and practiced dentistry for most of the decade. Then-Sen. Brad Miller drew himself a safe Democratic U.S. House seat (connects Raleigh and Greensboro by way of the Virginia border counties) and spent the remainder of the decade as a member of the United States Congress.
In 2008, Sen. Pittenger resigned. Bob Rucho was appointed to fill his unexpired term. In 2010, the GOP won a 31-19 majority in the NC Senate. Now, low and behold, look who is chairing the NC Senate Redistricting Committee!!! None other than Sen. Bob Rucho.
Miller is history.
A couple of other Democrats in the congressional delegation also need to be pricing moving companies for the big haul back to their respective hometowns. According to press accounts: Mike McIntire, D-Robeson and Larry Kissell, D-Montgomery are the #2 and #3 GOP targets after Miller, followed by Heath Shuler, D-Swain. We will find out who has a target on their backs in a couple of weeks.
Remedy for Overindulging at the Smorgasbord of Legal Mischief
The modern era of remapping congressional and legislative districts typically begins with the majority party overindulging at the smorgasbord of partisan mischief, only to have the minority party lawyers file suits against the maps … suits that receive an unfavorable ruling by majority party judges but are eventually reversed and remanded by the minority party appellate courts and ultimately appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which hands down a 5-4 decision going one way or the other depending on which party was in the White House at the time of the most recent retirement of a justice. Or, so it seems.
In June, the new Republican versions of congressional and state legislative maps will be unveiled. This much you can count on: Step 1: Republicans will draw themselves a political advantage. Step 2: the state or federal courts or the Obama Justice Department will take much of that advantage away.
In 2001, North Carolina Senate Democrats drew themselves 28 friendly districts and gave the GOP Senators 16. There were six swing Senate districts. Likewise, the North Carolina House Democrats drew themselves 59 friendly districts and gave the GOP 47. There were 14 swing House districts.
Republicans sued. Ultimately, after two years of legal filings, hearings and a dozen rulings, the courts leveled the playing field. Among the 50 Senate districts approved in 2003, 24 favored Democrats, 22 favored Republicans, and four were swing districts. Among the 120 House districts approved in 2003, 51 favored Democrats and 55 favored Republicans. There were 14 Swing districts.
Maps Give You a Head Start; Money Wins the Race
Democrats made up for their losses in the courts by parlaying their political power into a fundraising advantage, outspending Republicans 3-to-1 in legislative races for the remainder of the decade, thereby reestablishing their dominance. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Republicans were never able to build on the good success of their redistricting litigation, even in GOP-friendly years, because of their inability to raise a competitive war chest.
The financial disparity changed in 2010, primarily because the Democratic leadership imploded under the strain of the worst recession since the Great Depression, high legislative and party leadership turnover, political scandal, and a President who could no longer inspire turnout. While Democrats floundered, Republicans united behind a strong team of political leadership and attained unprecedented fundraising success … and unprecedented political success with the takeover of the General Assembly.
In 2008, NC Senate Democrats raised $9.7 million, doubling the $4.1 million raised by NC Senate Republicans. In 2010, NC Senate Democrats raised only $8.8 million, down 9.1%, while NC Senate Republicans achieved an unprecedented 93.1% increase over 2008 with $7.9 million.
In 2008, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million, tripling the $3.4 million raised by NC House Republicans. In 2010, NC House Democrats raised $9.7 million again, while NC House Republicans doubled their 2008 total with $6.8 million, a 102% increase.
The odds of another election year during which everything goes wrong for the Democrats while the GOP is doing everything right are slim to none. Maps give you a head start. Money wins the race.
Past Legal Mischief Foretells the Legal Mischief Coming in June
Last Thursday, I served on a panel on redistricting sponsored by the NC Bar Assn. Foundation CLE Department. Panelists included Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, Sen. Dan Blue, D-Wake, former Chmn. of the NC House Redistricting Committee, and Rep. Leo Daughtry, R-Johnston, a member of the NC House Redistricting Committee.
Rep. Daughtry reminded us that he was a state senator prior to the 1990 redistricting, when he was mapped out of his home territory and forced to run for the House. Daughtry also reminded us that in 2000 he and GOP House member Billy Creech were “double bunked” into the same district. Creech retired.
NC Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, R-Watauga was state Sen. Virginia Foxx 10 years ago when she was double-bunked with Sen. John Garwood, R-Wilkes. Foxx chose to run for US Congress instead. NC Congressman Patrick McHenry, R-Gaston was state Rep. Patrick McHenry 10 years ago when he was double-bunked with Rep. John Rayfield, R-Gaston. He chose to run for US Congress.
This is what you can expect in a couple of weeks, except that it will be the Democrats who will suffer at the hands of Republican map makers. And it will all be legal … legal mischief nonetheless, and the most fun you can legally have!
Remember, Democrats set the standard of fairness for redistricting congressional and legislative districts in North Carolina, and you can count on Republicans to lower themselves to that same standard.
– END –
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Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1 “According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats
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Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1
“According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats has dropped from 32 out of 120 under the 1992 House Plan to only 14 out of 120 under the 2001 House Plan.” NC Supreme Court opinion, Stephenson v. Bartlett, citing deposition of John Davis, NCFREE Executive Director
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Stephenson v. Bartlett – The Forgotten Reason Why the NC GOP Won the Majority in 2010
One month ago today, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans made history by winning the majority of the seats in the state Senate and House of Representatives. There are three primary reasons the GOP prevailed:
- Weak and divided Democratic leadership which lost the campaign $ advantage … during a GOP wave election year.
- Strong and united Republican leadership which achieved campaign $ parity … during a GOP wave election year.
- Stephenson v. Bartlett case of 2002 that led to a leveling of partisan districts
The Stephenson v. Bartlett case is the historic redistricting decision handed down by the NC Supreme Court in 2002 that threw out the brazenly 
gerrymandered maps drawn by legislative Democrats after the 2000 census. That case led to the leveling of the partisan playing field throughout the decade.
Without Stephenson v. Bartlett, the number of state senate and house districts drawn to favor Democrats would likely have been too great to overcome, even in 2010 with a strong Republican leadership team and GOP-friendly momentum.
I had the pleasure of serving as an impartial witness in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case in 2002, and was honored that my testimony was cited in the written opinion of the NC Supreme Court. Here are the facts before and after Stephenson v. Bartlett:
NC Senate Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 0-Seat Advantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 28 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 16 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
- After the judicially mandated remapping of districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a total loss of the advantage for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
NC House Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 4-Seat DISADVANTAGE
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 59 House districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 47 House districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts. There were 14 swing House districts.
- After judicially mandated remapping the districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 51 districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 55 districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net loss of 16 districts favoring Democrats when adding the net advantage for Republicans of 4 districts. There were still 14 swing districts.
So how is it that Democrats have been able to maintain power with a level playing field? The short answer is lots of money and a strong political leadership team. Democrats have been masters at parlaying their power into a 70-to-30 campaign spending advantage. They have also been masters at the fundamentals of winning campaigns. For many years I have referred to the Senate Democratic Caucus as the national model state legislative political war machine.
However, if you take away their strong Democratic leadership team and their financial advantage, they are left with a level political playing field thanks to the Stephenson v. Bartlett case. That’s what happened this year.
What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that they had to deal with an era of corrupt leaders, a Republican-friendly year, a weak governor, a high turnover of incumbents, an unpopular president, state budget problems, a national economic slump, anti-establishment voters, the Tea Party movement, low enthusiasm, low turnout of their base, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, record deficit spending, an unpopular war, a surge in opposition strength, and a loss of the campaign $ advantage … all at the same time.
Meanwhile, Republicans united for the first time as political pragmatists who finally accepted the fact that you can’t govern if you don’t win and you can’t win without money. Voila!
My sincerest congratulations to the Republican Party leadership and staff, to the GOP Senate Caucus leadership and staff, to the GOP House Caucus leadership and staff, and to all of you Republicans in North Carolina who have been denied the opportunity to have your ideas debated because of heavy-handed Democratic leadership who sent them to the Rules Committee for an early demise.
I hope that Republicans will do a better job than the Democrats at respecting the diversity of opinion in North Carolina …respecting diversity of opinion not just tolerating diversity of opinion. When it comes to conservative ideology, North Carolina’s liberal Democrats have a history of intolerance equal in every way to intolerant conservatives.
Speaking of respecting diversity of opinion, perhaps the greatest takeaway from the 2010 election cycle is: ignore the priorities of voters at your own peril. Both parties have had to learn that lesson the hard way during this decade.
Well, there you have it. This is the first John Davis Political Report of the 2011-2012 election cycle.
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May you have the happiest of times with your family in the coming weeks!
“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
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