New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%; Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%. New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762) “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the
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New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters: Republicans 49%; Independents 47%; Democrats: 4%;
Conservatives 52%; Moderates/Liberals: 48%. Evangelical Christians: 22%.
New Hampshire GOP Primary Results: Romney: 39% (97,399); Paul: 23% (56,601); Huntsman: 17% (41,796); Gingrich: 10% (23,329); Santorum: 9% (23,204); Perry: 1% (1,762)
“That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
Ron Paul, Tuesday, January 10, New Hampshire “Victory Speech”
Romney: Viewed as Most Likely to Beat Obama; Least Likely to Satisfy Conservatives on Managing Federal Budget … but Most Acceptable. Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in NC?
Post: Friday, January 13, 2012 Vol. V, No. 2
Romney’s NH GOP Primary Win Not as Big as “Acceptable” Win this Week
The most significant presidential campaign development this week was not Mitt Romney’s decisive win in New Hampshire. After all, he is New Hampshire’s “homeboy” as described by fellow GOP presidential contender Jon Huntsman. And, only about half of New Hampshire’s GOP Primary voters were either Republicans or self-described conservatives.
Tuesday’s NBC Exit Poll shows that only 49% of the New Hampshire Republican Primary voters think of themselves as Republican. Those who think of themselves as Independent made up 47% of the GOP primary voters; 4% think of themselves as Democrats!
The same exit poll shows that 48% of the New Hampshire GOP Primary voters think of themselves as either Moderate (35%) or Liberal (13%). Only 52% of New Hampshire Primary voters consider themselves Conservative! Only 22% say they are evangelical Christians.
So, what motivated New Hampshire GOP Primary voters to give Mitt Romney a big win? Answer: He is viewed as the most likely to defeat President Obama in November. Note: His conservative bona fides were considered the least important in New Hampshire.
- Can defeat Barack Obama 35%
- Has the right experience 26%
- Has strong moral character 22%
- Is a true conservative 13%
A combined 82% of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters polled said that they are either “Dissatisfied, but not angry” with the Obama administration (42%), or “Angry” with the Obama administration (40%). Why? It’s because a combined 95% are “Very worried” about the direction of the nation’s economy (69%), or are “Somewhat worried” (26%).
Bottom line: New Hampshire GOP Primary voters had two things on their mind when they gave Romney the big win Tuesday, other than being their “homeboy,” he has the best skill set to deal with their #1 issue, the economy (62%), and he is the most likely to defeat Obama (61%).
Big win for Romney Tuesday, but not as significant as Tuesday’s Gallup poll.
Gallup: 59% of Republicans See Romney as “Acceptable” Nominee
Far more significant than the New Hampshire GOP Primary win for Romney is a new Gallup survey released Tuesday showing that 59% of all Republicans around the country see Romney as an “acceptable GOP nominee for president.” According to Gallup, Romney is “the only candidate with majority support on this measure.”
The same survey shows only 46% of the nation’s Republicans see Gingrich as an acceptable nominee, and only 45% see Santorum would be acceptable. A majority of Republicans around the country say that Perry, Paul, and Huntsman are unacceptable as the GOP nominee.
The most positive result of the Gallup survey for Romney fans is that the same number of conservative Republicans found Romney an acceptable GOP nominee (59%) as Moderate/Liberal Republicans. That is a major breakthrough for Romney.
Bottom Line: Mitt Romney is the only GOP contender with broad acceptability across ideological lines among the nation’s Republicans. That decisive support can be seen in Gallup tracking polls that show Romney leading all other GOP contenders by better than 2-to-1 (Romney 34%; Santorum 15%; Gingrich 14%; Paul 13%; Perry 5%; Huntsman 2%).
Will Libertarian Uprising Dash GOP Presidential Hopes in North Carolina?
According to Gallup’s tracking on the question, “If the election were held today …,” President Obama would defeat Romney by 50% to 48%. Same result if Gingrich were the nominee.
Here in North Carolina, if the election were held today, Obama would defeat Romney by one point, 46%/45%, would tie Santorum 46%/46%, and would defeat all other GOP contenders by 5 points or more, according to polling by Public Policy Polling from January 5 – 8, 2012.
The biggest threat to the Republican presidential game plan in North Carolina is a Libertarian uprising. You can see that threat clearly in the Public Policy Poll, showing that Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, former two-term Governor of New Mexico, would get 8% of the vote in North Carolina, most of which would hurt Romney if he is the GOP nominee.
Johnson announced his switch to the Libertarian Party in late December at a news conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “I have been a Republican my entire life,” he said. “I don’t view this as leaving the Republican Party as much as the Republican Party has left me.”
The least likely voters to concede the GOP nomination this year are the Ron Paul self-described “dangerous” supporters. “I sort of have to chuckle when they describe you and me as being dangerous,” Paul said with a big grin during his “victory speech” Tuesday night, “That’s one thing, they are telling the truth, because we are dangerous to the status quo of this country.”
That “status quo” clearly includes the Republican status quo.
Obama’s Best Hope for a Second Term
My view is that Obama will not do nearly as well in North Carolina as he did in 2008, when he won by only 14,171 votes out of 4,310,789 cast.
He has lost the surprise factor, lost the enthusiastic support of his base (African American voters excepted), and has raised serious doubts about whether he has the credentials for dealing with the most important issues facing the next president: managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis. Even if he wins a second term he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
Obama’s best hope for a second term is a GOP divided by the Ron Paul Libertarians, the Rick Santorum social conservatives and the Tea Party congressional Republicans who have helped drive the job approval of the U.S. Congress to historic lows.
Our nation’s problems are bigger than party or ideology. Irresponsible members of both parties got us into the mess were are in, and irresponsible members of both parties are keeping us in it.
What is the definition of irresponsible members? It is: Those members who think their party or their ideology is more important than bipartisan collaboration on managing the nation’s budget crisis, managing the nation’s debt crisis, and managing the nation’s private sector competitiveness crisis … all three critical to the nation’s jobs crisis.
President Obama’s best hope for a second term is a dysfunctional Congress and a divided GOP.
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John N. Davis, Editor
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.” John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011 Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40%
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.”
John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011
Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40% GOP Nation
Post: December 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 34
And the Wall Street Journal Agrees!
If you go back and read all 2011 John Davis Political Reports, you will find this consistent drumbeat: the best hope for President Obama’s re-election success is the Tea Party faction of the U.S. House Republican Caucus.
Yesterday’s rejection of a bipartisan Senate bill to extend the payroll-tax cut is another example of how House Republicans are making the same mistake Obama made: thinking the election results were a mandate for partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives. Wrong.
According to Gallup’s three year average, only 40.4% of Americans are Republican or Lean Republican. The same study shows only 39.8% of Americans are conservative. Where does the House GOP Caucus get the notion that those who are struggling financially care which party is responsible for putting them back to work; responsible for getting the country out of debt? Does it matter to most if it’s conservatives or moderates or liberals who come to the rescue?
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
House Republicans are driving independent voters away, thereby jeopardizing all Republicans.
Today’s Wall Street Journal agrees. In an editorial titled, The GOP’s Payroll Tax Fiasco, WSJ concludes, “We wonder if they [U.S. House Republicans] might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.”
The nation is only 40.4% Republican; 39.8% conservative.
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
What Part of a 4-to-1 Obama Approval vs Congress Approval is Confusing?
I have shown time and again throughout 2011 that it’s the President not the Congress who Americans trust more to solve the country’s biggest problems of the day: sovereign debt and jobs. All year, the congressional job approval numbers have hovered in the low teens, near 10%, while the President’s job approval has hovered in the low 40s.
Today, Real Clear Politics shows Congressional Job Approval at 12.5%; President Obama’s Job Approval at 46.5%. What part of a 4-to-1 Presidential Job Approval over Congressional Job Approval do Republican members of the U.S. House not get?
A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows Congressional Democrats getting a 27% job approval rating, with only 20% approving of the job Congressional Republicans are doing. On the other hand, President Obama gets a 49% approval rating.
Ummmmmmm, let’s see. Congressional Republicans get a 20% approval rating and President Obama gets a 49% approval rating. How is that likely to play out in 2012?
The most ominous poll number I have read all year for uncompromising fiscal conservatives like the U.S. House Republican Caucus is a Gallup survey that shows that Independents, by almost 2-to-1, believe that it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs,” even if little gets done (27%).
In 2012, look for the Tea Party conservatives to continue to be a disruptive force in the Republican Party. If they continue to insist on their own priorities, as Obama and his fellow Democrats did when they put health care over jobs and the national budget crisis, they will suffer the same fate in November of 2012 as Democrats did in 2010.
- The Tea Party is on track to help re-elect President Obama
- The Tea Party is on track to limit the likely GOP U.S. Senate majority to 1 or 2 seats
- The Tea Party is on track to help Democrats pull off an upset U.S. House turnover
- The Tea Party is on track to cut the GOP potential for statewide pickups in NC in half (Council of State, 1 Supreme Court and 3 Court of Appeals races).
- The Tea Party is on track to keep the NC Senate and House from winning veto-proof super majorities (they will still win the majority in both chambers if districts stand)
Fortunately for likely GOP Gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory, Perdue is still on track to lose in a rematch because she is so weak that even the Tea Party can’t screw that race up! According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey, Perdue’s approval rating stands at 37% (about where its been since she took office) and she lags McCrory in the governor’s race by 10 points (50-40), about where its been since she took office.
All in all, Republicans are in for a big year in 2012 at the federal and state levels provided they can convince the Tea Party that giving up half of what they want to get half of what they want is the way progress is made in a Democracy.
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John N. Davis, Editor
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