John Davis Consulting

LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES

Part 2: Question that Reelected Obama

Post: September 2, 2011       Vol. IV, No. 23     Part 2

“I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage.  Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases.  Who on this stage would walk away from that deal?”

Bret Baier, Fox News Anchor, Moderator, GOP  Presidential Debate, Ames, Iowa,  Aug. 11, 2011

This is a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that begins today with Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and, later this afternoon, Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama.  On Monday, look for Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012.

Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama

The John Davis Political Report stated on August 12, 2011, “Obama’s probability of winning a second term remains high thanks to the low level of support among Americans for Congressional Republicans, especially the Tea Party fiscal conservatives.”

A review of two dozen national polls conducted in August 2011 support that point.

The AP-GfK poll conducted August 18-22, 2011, is a goldmine of insight on the eve of the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the election cycle.

As I noted in my report on Tuesday, one of the best facts to use to understand why President Obama is still in the running for a second term is the AP-GfK finding that “More Americans still blame former President George W. Bush rather than Obama for the economic distress. Some 31 percent put the bulk of the blame on Obama, while 51 percent point to his Republican predecessor.”

Here are a few more illustrations of the growing voter dissatisfaction with the Republican leadership:

• Last November 2010, AP-GfK poll asked voters, “Regardless of how you might vote, do you think Pres. Barack Obama deserves to be reelected.” Only 39% said yes; 54% said no.  Two weeks ago, August 2011, those numbers have shifted favorably for Obama, with 47% saying he deserves to be reelected and 48% saying he does not (that’s a net negative 15 pts in November 2010 to only a 1 point negative in August 2011).
• Last October 2010, AP-GfK poll asked likely voters, “Who do you trust to do a better job of handling the economy, the Democrats are the Republicans?” Republicans received a plurality of 47%; Democrats were chosen by 44%.  In August 2011, those numbers have now shifted, with 45% saying Democrats and 40% saying Republicans.
• How about “Handling Taxes?”  In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 41%.  August 2011 poll: Democrats 46%; Republicans 40%.
• How about “Creating Jobs?”  In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 40%.  August 2011 poll: Democrats 44%; Republicans 42%.

The same poll reveals a precipitous decline in support for the Tea Party, which has gone from 36% support among likely voters in October 2010 down to 25% support in August 2011.

Obama Just Won a Second Term

On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising far right fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, moderator of the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases deal.

BRET BAIER:  Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage.  Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases.  Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?

BAIER:  OK.  Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands.  They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to one deal, they would walk away from.”

When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”

Both parties won because they were the only option on the ballot

I understand how Republican and Tea Party fiscal conservatives can see Democrats as having an addiction to spending much like an alcoholic … out of control; can’t be trusted with one drink.  I understand how they conclude that Democrats cannot be trusted with a 10-to-1 deal.  But Independent voters can’t understand why GOP leaders balk at a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes.

It all goes back to misperceptions on election-day November 2010.  Republicans thought those Independent voters switched from Democrats to Republicans because they wanted leaders who would say no to a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes.  Wrong.

When Independent voters turned their backs on Democrats it was because they had lost confidence in the ability of Democrats to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.

Republicans were the only other opinion on the ballot!

Obama and the Democrats got into the same trouble after their victory in 2008 for the same reason … thinking that voters chose them because of the Democratic Party platform.  Wrong.

When Independent voters turned their backs on President Bush and the Republicans in 2008, it was because they had lost confidence in the GOP’s ability to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.

Democrats were the only other option on the ballot!

Voters don’t want Democrats or Republicans … they could care less about liberal or conservative ideology … they want jobs, hope for regaining our economic footing here in the United States, and an end to outrageously irresponsible government spending.

As of Labor Day Holiday weekend 2011, uncompromising Republicans are Obama’s best hope for winning a second term.

Remember, on Monday I will send Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, in which I will forecast the next President, US House majority party, US Senate majority party, NC Senate and House majority parties, and the next NC Governor.

Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.

– END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!

John N. Davis, Editor

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