UPDATE: North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in July 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in July 2012. No power, no money. John Davis Political Report, July 16, 2012 UPDATE Post: Monday, July 16, 2012 Vol. V, No. 23 3:13
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UPDATE: North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in July 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in July 2012. No power, no money. John Davis Political Report, July 16, 2012
UPDATE Post: Monday, July 16, 2012 Vol. V, No. 23 3:13 pm
Structural Deficiencies Seen in State Party Fundraising Results
“The North Carolina Democratic Party … is well behind in the race for money” AP, 7/13/2012
Last Wednesday, July 11, the John Davis Political Report concluded that if the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government.
There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results. According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”
The AP story reported the following campaign fundraising results from the latest reports filed last week with the State Board of Elections:
- NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”
- NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
- When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”
Game Changing Structural Deficiencies Seen in Legislative Leaders’ Fundraising
Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012
Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash. Last week, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.
Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s a game changing structural deficiency.
Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in last week’s campaign finance reports. Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported $92,404 cash on hand.
NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand. Four years ago, then Republican House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported $43,312 cash.
If you will recall, I reported last week that Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, reported $714,000 cash.
Add last week’s report to this one and you will see why I continue to believe that for the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton … or anyone else for that matter.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012 Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm Ladies and
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North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton
Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash. Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash. Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012
Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 Vol. V, No. 22 7:13 pm
Ladies and gentlemen, the Governor of the Great State of North Carolina and Mrs. McCrory
If the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government. For the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.
In 2012, for the first time since the 1800s, Republicans will be fighting from a position of partisan strength afforded by power, money, maps, message, momentum, strong leadership and candidates, and most importantly, party unity.
Conversely, for the first time since the 1800s, Democrats will be fighting from a position of partisan weakness resulting from a loss of political power, loss of the political fund raising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, loss of unity, loss of strong, ideologically flexible political leaders, and the loss of a united base.
Case in point: The Governor’s Race. Today, July 11, polling and campaign fundraising results were announced that put the governor’s race solidly in the “McCrory’s to lose” category.
- July 11 report filed by Walter Dalton with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he has only $714,000 as of July 1, compared to McCrory’s $4.4 million.
- July 11 poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat polling firm, shows GOP nominee Pat McCrory ahead of Democrat nominee Walter Dalton by 7 points, 43% to 36%.
- McCrory leads among Independent voters by 47% to 25%.
- McCrory has the support of 79% of Republicans; only 63% of Democrats support Dalton.
McCrory’s Strength as Candidate Seen in during Historic Democrat-friendly Year
In 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory ONLY because of a structurally sound Democratic Party, a 2-to-1 spending advantage and the commitment made by the Obama campaign in North Carolina.
The Obama campaign spent millions on a statewide organization operating out of 47 headquarters. A paid staff of 400 coordinated the work of 10,000 volunteers. The Obama ground game broke all records for new registered voters and early voting turnout. They spent $1.7 million just on straight ticket voter education.
However, despite outspending McCrory $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic voter registration and turnout year for Democrats, Perdue barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
That is not just a sign of how weak Beverly Perdue was in 2008, it is a sign of how strong Pat McCrory was in 2008. Now, it is Pat McCrory with the spending advantage and a structurally sound Republican Party backing him up. McCrory has $4.4 million cash as of July 1, 2012. Dalton has $714,000. Game over in the governor’s race.
Furthermore, the North Carolina Democratic Party is not structurally capable of stopping a Republican stampede in 2012 from the top of the ballot down. I will develop the topic of structural deficiencies in the next report.
Meanwhile, North Carolina Governor’s race is McCrory’s to lose, and Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Annual Subscription is $245. Subscribe online at www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe, or mail your check to John Davis Political Report, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622. P.S.: Need a speaker? Let me know if you need a speaker or a moderator for a political panel. Audiences are particularly interested in politics this year due to the nation’s economic crisis and the many other uncertainties. Inquire about availability here. JND
Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012 “So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in
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Implications of Erskine Bowles’ Decision NOT to Run for Governor; NC Democrats Continue Steep Decline as GOP Ascends to Dominance
Post: February 2, 2012 Vol. V, No. 6 UPDATED FEBRUARY 3, 2012
“So right now, McCrory retains the edge, even against the strongest Democrat. But Bowles would have the potential to bring in a lot of money from across the country to quickly make this a race.” Public Policy Polling, January 30, 2012, More on the NC governor’s race
Bowles Was the Biggest Threat to McCrory; Lt. Gov. Dalton Trails by 15 Points
I can hear the champagne corks popping all over the state as backers of former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s campaign for the GOP nomination for governor celebrate today’s decision by Erskine Bowles not to seek the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination. According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, Bowles was the only serious Democratic candidate who polled within 10 points of McCrory, trailing McCrory only 44-42.
Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton of Rutherford County, state Rep. Bill Faison of Orange County and former Congressman Bob Etheridge of Harnett County have announced their intentions to run for governor in the Democratic primary. The Public Policy Poll shows Dalton and Etheridge trailing McCrory by 15 points (50-35); Faison by 19 points (50-31). Former state Treasurer Richard Moore, still considering the race, trails McCrory by 11 points (47-36).
McCrory, the presumptive Republican Party nominee in the race for governor, made his formal announcement in Greensboro Tuesday, January 31, 2012, vowing to put an end to the Democrats’ “scandal-ridden good old boy (and girl) network and fix the state’s broken economy.”
Erskine Bowles was more than a serious threat to McCrory’s quest to be governor, his candidacy would have reinvigorated the North Carolina Democratic Party by attracting much needed national money and talent. Now, the steep political decline continues for Democrats as NC Republicans ascend to dominance.
Bowles Would Have Reinvigorated a Democratic Party in Disarray
The North Carolina Democrats have been in political disarray since losing the state Senate and House to Republicans in 2010 … a first in 140 years.
Compounding the loss of political dominance by Democrats is the fact that Gov. Perdue has proven to be a weak governor and a drag on their candidates. Further, Perdue has been tripped up time and again by allegations of campaign improprieties and the investigations and indictments of key staff and supporters.
“Bev Perdue’s retirement has clearly helped Democratic chances of holding the Governor’s office this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
There is no greater evidence of how the political fortunes of North Carolina Democrats have diminished than the campaign finance report filed this week by Sen. Martin Nesbitt, Senate Minority Leader, the most powerful Democrat in the Senate. Nesbitt’s January 2012 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he raised only $52,264 as of year-end 2011. At the same time two years ago, January 2010, then Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight reported raising $1,519,768.
Mid-year 2011 campaign finance reports showed Republicans in the NC Senate with a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over the loyal opposition party, a historic first, with NC House Republicans raising four times the money of their Democratic counterparts.
Republicans have Power, Money and Friendly Districts
Power has always meant money; money means you have the resources to hold on to your base of candidates, win most of the close races in “swing” districts, and even raid the opposition’s base and pick off a few of their seats. Republicans have the power, the money … and the districts.
Last November, the United States Justice Department preapproved the Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps, virtually assuring Republicans a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly throughout the decade. Two weeks ago, a 3-judge panel ruled against several plaintiffs, including the NAACP, who were trying to delay the May 8 primary elections based on allegation that the maps would re-segregate the state and diminish the influence of black voters.
These two rulings add to the list of legislative and judicial redistricting wins for the North Carolina GOP and suggest that the maps will withstand any future litigation.
Further evidence of a downward spiral for North Carolina Democrats came today as the leading Democrat in the NC House, Minority Leader Joe Hackney, announce that he would not seek reelection. Hackney, who served as Speaker of the House two terms, brings the total number of Democrats not seeking reelection in the NC House to 9, with more to come due to incumbent Democrats double-bunked into the same district.
McCrory has High Favorability Ratings & $2 Million in the Bank
According to polling conducted last weekend by Public Policy Polling, not only was the hypothetical race between Bowles and McCrory a virtual tie, 46% of North Carolina voters said that they are “generally leaning toward voting for a Democrat in the race for governor, with 45% saying they will vote Republican in the governor’s race.”
However, with Bowles out and no other Democrat within striking distance of McCrory, the presumptive GOP nominee’s political fortunes will soar … especially his fundraising.
Favorable findings for McCrory in the Public Policy Polling survey last weekend include:
- McCrory has high name recognition (76%) at the starting gate, with many more voters having a favorable opinion (45%); only 31% an unfavorable opinion
- In a state where 24% of all registered voters are Unaffiliated, Independent voters see McCrory positively by a 55%/25% spread
The year-end 2011 report filed with the NC State Board of Elections shows that McCrory raised $2.6 million from 6,120 contributors last year, and has a little over $2 million cash on hand.
Bowles would have had no problem playing catch-up with fundraising. In both his 2002 and 2004 losing races for U.S. Senate seats won by Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, he spent $12.7 million and $13.4 million respectively, with $6.8 million coming out of his own pocket in 2002.
Now, Democrats will struggle all year to raise a competitive war chest in the Governor’s race. They simply do not have a superstar like Bowles to re-energize their financial base.
Without a SuperSTAR like Bowles, the Best Hope for Democrats is a SuperPAC
There was a news story last week about SAS co-founder and CEO Jim Goodnight hosting a fundraiser for Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton. Goodnight is generally recognized as the wealthiest man in the State of North Carolina and one of the wealthiest in the world.
Goodnight has a passion for education, especially elementary and secondary. The Public Policy Poll from last weekend notes a potential liability for McCrory, “his close ties to the unpopular Republican legislature and the cuts they’ve made to education.”
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling two years ago in the Citizen’s United case declared that wealthy individuals like Goodnight and corporations like SAS can spend an unlimited amount of money influencing the outcome of political races … provided they spend it independently and not in collusion with the campaigns they are attempting to help.
With the steep decline in the prowess of the North Carolina Democratic Party, and the rapid ascendancy of the Republican Party as the dominant political party, there are only two recovery options for the Democrats: an exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle or a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
I do not see the exceptionally inspirational leader with fundraising muscle on the list of statewide Democratic candidates. Disagree? Well, who would you say is the Jim Hunt of 2012? That leaves recovery option #2: a massive infusion of independent working political capital.
That’s where the Jim Goodnights of the state meet with the Citizen’s United decision; unlimited funding for everything the party lacks resources to do better than the Republicans … from voter registration and early voting turnout to unlimited millions in advertising dollars targeting every vulnerable Republican in the state.
You can already count on outside money pouring into the state with the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Charlotte and the fact that President Obama likes North Carolina. And, you can count on outside union money pouring in from the coffers of the NEA (teachers), AFSCME (government employees) and SEIU (service employees). But all of that money will pale in significance to the money now allowed under the Citizens United decision.
In the absence of a superstar like Erskine Bowles, the best hope for North Carolina Democrats is a SuperPAC. The traditional 10-to-1 advantage in total legislative campaign funds raised by the majority party is now chump change compared to the potential for a tsunami of outside SuperPAC funding.
There is a new political paradigm in North Carolina politics: the SuperPAC. If the GOP is to continue its ascendancy to political dominance, they must also embrace this new political reality in campaign funding.
Candidate filing begins on February 15, and ends on February 29. The primary is May 8.
Transcript of statement by Erskine Bowles released to AP this morning:
“I will not be a candidate for Governor. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to think what is the right thing for me to do. I don’t think anyone questions my love for North Carolina or my efforts to make our State a better place to live, work , or raise a family . I’ve done my best in this regard and I plan to continue to do so . There are lots of ways to make a difference , lots of ways to add to the community woodpile . I’m excited about helping our State’s and Nation’s leaders move North Carolina and our Country forward . We’ve got big challenges and great opportunities. I’m confident if we can get folks to put politics aside , and pull together , not apart , there are no problems we can’t solve working together. Erskine Bowles”
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis, Editor
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